图片



the

TEN-DAY

工商管理硕士

MBA

第四版

4TH EDITION

 

 



掌握

美国顶级商学院教授的技能的循序渐进指南

A Step-by-Step Guide to

Mastering the Skills Taught in

America’s Top Business Schools

史蒂文西尔比格

Steven Silbiger

图片

致谢

Acknowledgments

我非常感谢 William Morrow 的 Rose Marie Morse 和 Sarah Zimmerman 为将我的 MBA 草稿转化为原书所做的辛勤努力。感谢 Quill 的 Toni Sciarra,他支持了第二版;HarperCollins 的 Herb Schaffner 排在第三位;和 Colleen Lawrie,他在这方面提供了帮助。

I gratefully thank Rose Marie Morse and Sarah Zimmerman of William Morrow for all their diligent efforts to transform my MBA drafts into the original book. Thanks to Toni Sciarra at Quill, who championed the second edition; Herb Schaffner at HarperCollins, who led the third; and Colleen Lawrie, who helped on this one.

我还要感谢 Sagalyn Agency 的 Rafe Sagalyn,感谢他发现我的书的潜力并将其推向世界各地的出版商的非凡能力。最好的总是让它看起来很容易。

I also thank Rafe Sagalyn at the Sagalyn Agency for his extraordinary ability to see my book’s potential and to place it with publishers around the world. The best always make it look easy.

问题,意见?给作者发电子邮件 tendaymba@juno.com 或访问我们的网站 www.tendaymba.com。

Questions, comments? E-mail the author at tendaymba@juno.com or visit our Web site at www.tendaymba.com.

介绍

Introduction

在我获得 MBA 学位后,我有机会反思我生命中最疲惫和最充实的两年。当我回顾我的课程笔记时,我意识到 MBA 教育的基础知识非常简单,并且很容易被更广泛的受众理解。成千上万的十天MBA读者已经证明了这一点!读者每天都在将他们的 MBA 知识应用到他们自己的业务环境中。十天 MBA不仅在美国有用,还被翻译成世界各地的多种语言。很多人都对商业教育感到好奇,包括医生、律师、商人和有抱负的 MBA。这本书回答了他们的问题。为期十天的MBA真正快速、轻松地提供有用的信息。目前的 MBA 学生写信给我说,他们甚至用这本书复习考试。为期十天的 MBA 课程在每个工作日都像 MBA 一样“边走边谈”。高管迷你 MBA 课程是围绕本书设计的。事实证明,这本书对你有用。为没有耐心的学生而写,为期十天的 MBA让读者能够真正掌握 MBA 的基本原理,而不会损失两年的工资和承担 175,000 美元的学杂费债务。

After I earned my MBA, I had a chance to reflect on the two most exhausting and fulfilling years of my life. As I reviewed my course notes, I realized that the basics of an MBA education were quite simple and could easily be understood by a wider audience. Thousands of Ten-Day MBA readers have proven it! Readers are applying their MBA knowledge every day to their own business situations. Not only useful in the United States, The Ten-Day MBA has been translated into many languages around the world. So many people are curious about business education, including doctors, lawyers, businesspeople, and aspiring MBAs. This book answers their questions. The Ten-Day MBA really delivers useful information quickly and easily. Current MBA students have written me that they even use the book to review for exams. Ten-Day MBAs are “walking the walk and talking the talk” of MBAs every business day. Executive mini-MBA programs are designed around the book. It’s proven that this book can work for you. Written for the impatient student, The Ten-Day MBA allows readers to really grasp the fundamentals of an MBA without losing two years’ wages and incurring a $175,000 debt for tuition and expenses.

未来的 MBA 学生可以使用这本书来了解两年的投资是否值得;即将进入商学院的学生可以在竞争中抢占先机;那些找不到时间或钱的人可以以标价 99% 的价格获得至少 20,000 美元的 MBA 教育。遗憾的是,本书无法为您提供在精英学校可以培养的友谊和终身业务联系。但是,它可以传授许多使 MBA 获得成功的技能。

Prospective MBAs can use this book to see if a two-year investment is worth their while; those about to enter business school can get a big head start on the competition; and those of you who cannot find the time or the money can get at least $20,000 of MBA education at 99 percent off the list price. Unfortunately, this book cannot provide you with the friendships and lifelong business contacts that you can develop at an elite school. However, it can impart many of the skills that make MBAs successful.

为期十天的 MBA总结了十大 MBA 教育的要点。排名前十的商学院的神秘感和生机立足于使他们的课程显得尽可能独特和复杂。公司支付数千美元让他们的高管在这些神圣的知识之泉中畅饮几天。我花了两年的时间,不仅从喷泉里喝水,还在里面洗澡和洗衣服。

The Ten-Day MBA summarizes the essentials of a Top Ten MBA education. The mystique and the livelihood of the Top Ten business schools are predicated on making their curriculum appear as unique and complex as possible. Companies pay thousands of dollars to send their executives to drink from these hallowed fountains of knowledge for a few days. I spent two years of my life not only drinking from the fountain but also bathing and washing my clothes in it.

前十名中包括哪些学校是一个争论不休的话题,正如本介绍末尾显示的最近排名所示。十强实际上是指十五所国家认可的学校,为十强排名扮演抢椅子的学校。他们以冗长的申请表、活跃的校友网络、长长的招聘人员名单以及毕业生要求和接受高得离谱的起薪的能力而著称。排名前十的学校要求考生在入学前至少有两年的工作经验。有经验的学生可以丰富课堂讨论和学习小组。我的很多学习都来自同学们的工作经历。

Which schools are included in the Top Ten is a subject of considerable debate, as displayed by the recent rankings shown at the end of this introduction. The Top Ten actually refers to a group of fifteen nationally recognized schools that play musical chairs for Top Ten ranking. They distinguish themselves by long application forms, active alumni networks, long lists of recruiters, and the ability of their graduates to demand and receive outrageous starting salaries. The Top Ten schools require of candidates at least two years’ work experience before admission. Experienced students can enrich class discussions and study groups. A great deal of my learning came from my classmates’ work experiences.

排名前十的学校不一定提供最好的教学、设施或课程。声誉在他们的地位中起着重要作用。可以使用各种评级书籍来了解这些声誉的“内部”故事。现在很多杂志和报纸都在发布排名,因为它们是最畅销的期刊之一。根据 2010 年彭博 商业周刊的民意调查,“毕业生满意度得分最高的依次是弗吉尼亚、芝加哥、麻省理工学院、伯克利和哈佛。” 另一方面,招聘人员的排名是芝加哥、宾夕法尼亚、哈佛、西北和密歇根。

The Top Ten schools do not necessarily offer the best teaching, facilities, or curriculum. Reputation plays a great part in their status. A variety of rating books are available that give the “inside” story on those reputations. So many magazines and newspapers are now publishing rankings because they are among their best-selling issues. According to the 2010 Bloomberg Businessweek poll, “racking up the highest satisfaction scores from graduates are, in descending order, Virginia, Chicago, MIT, Berkeley, and Harvard.” The recruiters’ rankings, on the other hand, are Chicago, Pennsylvania, Harvard, Northwestern, and Michigan.

我的目标是简明扼要地切入顶级 MBA 课程主题的核心——这是只有 MBA 才能做到的,而学术界不敢做到的。为了涵盖主要概念,我尽可能使用示例和大纲并进行总结。我浏览了那些冗长而自私的学术读物,有时我不得不艰难地读完这些读物。本书仅包含埋藏在我的 32 个案例活页夹、课程材料和笔记中的智慧之珠,并由当前的 MBA 学生更新。

My aim is to cut to the heart of the top MBA programs’ subject matter clearly and concisely—the way only an MBA can, and the way academics would not dare. To cover the major concepts, I use examples and outlines and summarize wherever possible. I slice through the long-winded and self-serving academic readings that at times I had to trudge through. This book contains only the pearls of wisdom buried in my thirty-two binders of cases, course materials, and notes, and updated by current MBAs.

我对推广书中提出的任何商业理论没有既得利益。因此,本书不会像许多流行的商业书籍那样在 200 页的篇幅中重复相同的观点。我在简短的段落中明确了最重要的概念,这样你就可以在不失去兴趣的情况下学习和记住它们。

I have no vested interest in promoting any of the business theories presented in the book. Therefore, this book does not repeat the same idea over the course of two hundred pages as many popular business books tend to do. I crystallize the most important concepts in brief passages so you can learn and remember them without losing interest.

从我对沃顿商学院、哈佛大学、西北大学和其他顶尖学校毕业生的采访中,我了解到他们所有的课程都提供同样的 MBA 餐食。只是商务宴会的调料和摆盘有所不同。

From my interviews with graduates from Wharton, Harvard, Northwestern, and other top schools, I learned that all of their programs serve up the same MBA meal. Only the spices and presentations of the business banquets vary.

MBA知识的基础分为九个学科。一些学校为每个学科精心起草了自己的崇高名称,但他们的未美化名称是:

The basics of MBA knowledge fall into nine disciplines. Some schools have carefully crafted their own exalted names for each subject, but their unglorified names are:

 

 

营销

Marketing

伦理

Ethics

会计

Accounting

组织行为学

Organizational Behavior

定量分析

Quantitative Analysis

金融

Finance

运营

Operations

经济学

Economics

战略

Strategy

 

 

来自所有这些学科的知识的综合使 MBA 变得有价值。对于拥有 MBA 学位的新产品经理,她不仅可以从营销角度看待业务挑战,还可以识别并处理新产品带来的财务和制造需求。这种协调的、多学科的方法在本科商业课程中通常是缺失的。通过在一本书中同时了解所有 MBA 学科,您将有机会像在最好的学校那样综合 MBA 知识。

The synthesis of knowledge from all of these disciplines is what makes the MBA valuable. In the case of a new product manager with an MBA, she can not only see her business challenges from a marketing perspective, but she can recognize and deal with the financial and manufacturing demands created by her new product. This coordinated, multidisciplinary approach is usually missing in undergraduate business curricula. By learning about all the MBA disciplines at once, in one book, you have the opportunity to synthesize MBA knowledge the way you would at the best schools.

当 MBA 聚集在一起时,我们倾向于进行“MBA 喋喋不休”。我们使用 NPV、SPC 和 CRM 等神秘缩写词只是为了证明我们的高薪和快速晋升是正当的。请不要被吓倒。MBA行话简单易学!当你阅读本书时,你也会开始像 MBA 一样思考和说话。

When MBAs congregate, we tend to engage in “MBA babble.” Our use of mystical abbreviations like NPV, SPC, and CRM is only a ruse to justify our lofty salaries and quick promotions. Please do not be intimidated. MBA jargon is easy to learn! As you read this book, you too will begin to think and talk like an MBA.

我的目标是让您熟悉目前在领先的商学院教授的重要 MBA 工具和理论,并帮助您理解和发展 MBA 思维模式。当你完成这十天的学习后,请随意在书末的毕业证书上填写你的名字。它可以作为你获得奖学金的证据,你应该自豪地把它展示给你所有的朋友看。

My goal is to make you familiar with the significant MBA tools and theories currently being taught at the leading business schools and to help you understand and develop the MBA mind-set. When you finish the ten days, please feel free to fill in your name on the diploma at the end of the book. It serves as evidence of your scholarship, and you should proudly display it for all your friends to see.

 

 

目前的MBA学校排名

CURRENT MBA SCHOOL RANKINGS

以下是 MBA 课程的最新排名。尽管排名每年都在变化,但始终列出相同的学校。括号中列出的学校名称使创始人和主要捐助者永垂不朽。国际学校已成为 2000 年代不可忽视的力量。

Below are the most current rankings of MBA programs. Although the rankings change from year to year, the same schools are consistently listed. School names listed in parentheses immortalize founders and major benefactors. International schools have become a force to be reckoned with in the 2000s.

 

 

两年制 MBA 学位课程

TWO-YEAR MBA DEGREE PROGRAMS

美国新闻与世界报道,顶级商学院,2011 年

U.S. News & World Report, Top Business Schools, 2011

基于学术、招聘人员、录取标准和就业成功

Based on academics, recruiters, admissions standards, and employment success

1. 斯坦福大学

1. Stanford

2. 哈佛

2. Harvard

3.麻省理工学院(斯隆)

3. MIT (Sloan)

3.宾夕法尼亚(沃顿商学院)

3. Pennsylvania (Wharton)

5. 西北大学(凯洛格)

5. Northwestern (Kellogg)

5. 芝加哥(展位)

5. Chicago (Booth)

7.达特茅斯(塔克)

7. Dartmouth (Tuck)

7.伯克利(哈斯)

7. Berkeley (Haas)

9.哥伦比亚

9. Columbia

10.纽约大学(斯特恩)

10. NYU (Stern)

10. 耶鲁

10. Yale

12.杜克(Fuqua)

12. Duke (Fuqua)

13.弗吉尼亚州(达登)

13. Virginia (Darden)

14.加州大学洛杉矶分校(安德森)

14. UCLA (Anderson)

14.密歇根州(罗斯)

14. Michigan (Ross)

(排名中的几个并列)

(Several ties in the rankings)

 

 

彭博商业周刊,顶级商学院,2010 年

Bloomberg Businessweek, Top Business Schools, 2010

基于招聘人员和学生的民意调查

Based on recruiter and student polls

美国顶尖学校

Top U.S. Schools

1. 芝加哥

1. Chicago

2. 哈佛

2. Harvard

3. 宾夕法尼亚

3. Pennsylvania

4.西北

4. Northwestern

5. 斯坦福大学

5. Stanford

6.公爵

6. Duke

7. 密歇根州

7. Michigan

8.伯克利

8. Berkeley

9.哥伦比亚

9. Columbia

10.麻省理工学院

10. MIT

11.弗吉尼亚

11. Virginia

12. 新加坡管理大学(考克斯)

12. SMU (Cox)

13. 康奈尔大学

13. Cornell

14.达特茅斯(塔克)

14. Dartmouth (Tuck)

15.卡内基梅隆大学(泰珀)

15. Carnegie Mellon (Tepper)

顶级非美国学校

Top Non-U.S. Schools

1.欧洲工商管理学院(法国)

1. INSEAD (France)

2. 皇后大学(加拿大)

2. Queen’s University (Canada)

3. IE商学院(西班牙)

3. IE Business School (Spain)

4. ESADE(西班牙)

4. ESADE (Spain)

5.伦敦商学院

5. London Business School

6.安大略省西部(Ivey)

6. Western Ontario (Ivey)

7. IMD(瑞士)

7. IMD (Switzerland)

8. 多伦多(罗特曼)

8. Toronto (Rotman)

9.约克(舒立克)

9. York (Schulich)

10.剑桥(法官)

10. Cambridge (Judge)

 

 

福布斯,最佳商学院,2011 年

Forbes, Best Business Schools, 2011

基于 5 年 MBA 补偿收益减去学费

Based on 5-year MBA compensation gains less tuition costs

美国最好的商学院

Best U.S. Business Schools

1. 哈佛

1. Harvard

2. 斯坦福大学

2. Stanford

3. 芝加哥

3. Chicago

4. 宾夕法尼亚

4. Pennsylvania

5.哥伦比亚

5. Columbia

6. 达特茅斯

6. Dartmouth

7.西北大学

7. Northwestern

8. 康奈尔大学

8. Cornell

9.弗吉尼亚

9. Virginia

10.麻省理工学院

10. MIT

11. 耶鲁

11. Yale

12.杜克

12. Duke

13.伯克利

13. Berkeley

14. 密歇根州

14. Michigan

15. 杨百翰

15. Brigham Young

 

 

华尔街日报,2007 年 9 月

Wall Street Journal, September 2007

基于招聘人员调查

Based on recruiter surveys

北美顶尖学校

Top North American Schools

1.达特茅斯

1. Dartmouth

2.伯克利

2. Berkeley

3.哥伦比亚

3. Columbia

4.麻省理工学院

4. MIT

5.卡耐基梅隆大学

5. Carnegie Mellon

6.北卡罗来纳州(凯南-弗拉格勒)

6. North Carolina (Kenan-Flagler)

7. 密歇根州

7. Michigan

8. 耶鲁

8. Yale

9. 芝加哥

9. Chicago

10.弗吉尼亚

10. Virginia

11. 宾夕法尼亚

11. Pennsylvania

12. 西北大学

12. Northwestern

13.杜克

13. Duke

14. 哈佛

14. Harvard

15.加州大学洛杉矶分校

15. UCLA

顶尖国际学校

Top International Schools

1. ESADE(西班牙)

1. ESADE (Spain)

2. IMD(瑞士)

2. IMD (Switzerland)

3.伦敦商学院

3. London Business School

4. IPADE(墨西哥)

4. IPADE (Mexico)

5.麻省理工学院(美国)

5. MIT (USA)

6.哥伦比亚

6. Columbia

7. ESSEC(法国)

7. ESSEC (France)

8. EGADE(墨西哥)

8. EGADE (Mexico)

9. HEC-巴黎

9. HEC-Paris

10.雷鸟(加文)

10. Thunderbird (Garvin)

 

 

彭博商业周刊,2010

Bloomberg Businessweek, 2010

学生最喜欢的投票

Students’ Favorites Poll

1.弗吉尼亚

1. Virginia

2. 芝加哥

2. Chicago

3.麻省理工学院

3. MIT

4.伯克利

4. Berkeley

5. 哈佛

5. Harvard

6.西北

6. Northwestern

7. 斯坦福大学

7. Stanford

8. 康奈尔大学

8. Cornell

9.南加州大学(马歇尔)

9. USC (Marshall)

10.哥伦比亚

10. Columbia

 

 

彭博商业周刊,2010

Bloomberg Businessweek, 2010

招聘人员的最爱投票

Recruiters’ Favorites Poll

1. 芝加哥

1. Chicago

2. 宾夕法尼亚

2. Pennsylvania

3. 哈佛

3. Harvard

4.西北

4. Northwestern

5. 密歇根州

5. Michigan

6. 南卫理公会

6. Southern Methodist

7. 斯坦福大学

7. Stanford

8.杜克

8. Duke

9.哥伦比亚

9. Columbia

10. 纽约大学

10. NYU

 

 

彭博商业周刊,2010

Bloomberg Businessweek, 2010

学生评价的最佳教学和就业服务

Best Teaching and Career Services as Rated by Students

1.弗吉尼亚

1. Virginia

2. 芝加哥

2. Chicago

3.康奈尔大学

3. Cornell

4.卡耐基梅隆大学

4. Carnegie Mellon

5. 南加州大学

5. USC

这 5 所顶尖学校是唯一在学生满意度的这两个关键标准上获得 A+ 评级的学校,前 20%。

These 5 top schools were the only schools rated A+, top 20 percent, on both of these key criteria of student satisfaction.

 

 

金融时报,2011

Financial Times, 2011

全球排名

Global Ranking

1.伦敦商学院

1.London Business School

1. 宾夕法尼亚

1. Pennsylvania

3.哈佛

3.Harvard

4.欧洲工商管理学院(法国)

4. INSEAD (France)

4.斯坦福大学

4. Stanford

6. 香港科技大学

6. Hong Kong UST

7.哥伦比亚

7. Columbia

8. IE商学院(西班牙)

8. IE Business School (Spain)

9. IESE商学院(西班牙)

9. IESE Business School (Spain)

9.麻省理工学院

9. MIT

11. 印度管理学院

11. Indian Institute of Management

12. 芝加哥

12. Chicago

13.印度商学院

13. Indian School of Business

14. IMD(瑞士)

14. IMD (Switzerland)

15. 纽约大学

15. NYU

(排名中有一些联系。)

(Some ties in the rankings.)

 

 

经济学家,2011

The Economist, 2011

全球排名

Global Ranking

1.达特茅斯

1.Dartmouth

2. 芝加哥

2. Chicago

3.IMD _

3.IMD

4.弗吉尼亚

4. Virginia

5.哈佛

5.Harvard

6.伯克利

6. Berkeley

7.哥伦比亚

7. Columbia

8. 斯坦福大学

8. Stanford

9.约克

9. York

10. IESE

10. IESE

11.麻省理工学院

11. MIT

12. 纽约大学

12. NYU

13. 伦敦

13. London

14. HEC-巴黎

14. HEC-Paris

15. 宾夕法尼亚

15. Pennsylvania

第一天

Day 1

营销

MARKETING

营销话题

Marketing Topics

营销策略制定的 7 个步骤

The 7 Steps of Marketing Strategy Development

购买过程

The Buying Process

分割

Segmentation

产品生命周期

Product Life Cycle

知觉映射

Perceptual Mapping

边距

Margins

营销组合和 4P

The Marketing Mix and the 4 P’s

定位

Positioning

分销渠道

Distribution Channels

广告

Advertising

促销活动

Promotions

价钱

Pricing

营销经济学

Marketing Economics

Acme Corporation 会议室的一幕:

A scene from the boardroom of Acme Corporation:

 

 

主管:每次我们对高管的薪水进行年度审查时,当我想到我们支付给宾夕法尼亚州立大学市场营销副总裁吉姆·穆尼的薪水高于我们公司总裁哈佛大学的汉克·布福德时,我都会感到畏缩。我只是不明白。

DIRECTOR: Every time we do our annual review of our executives’ salaries, I cringe when I think that we are paying more to Jim Mooney, our vice president of marketing from Penn State, than to our company’s president, Hank Bufford from Harvard. I just don’t understand it.

董事会主席:你有什么不明白的?没有吉姆的销售,我们就不需要总裁——或其他任何人!

CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD: What don’t you understand? Without Jim’s sales we wouldn’t need a president—or anyone else for that matter!

图片

保持所有通话。我会减少会计工作——锻炼肌肉。”

HOLD ALL CALLS. I’LL BE DOWN IN ACCOUNTING—FLEXING MY MUSCLES.”

 

 

营销人员像Acme的董事长一样看待世界。正如西北大学凯洛格学院的著名教授菲利普科特勒所教导的那样,营销是第一位的。市场营销整合了企业的所有功能,并通过广告、销售人员和其他营销活动直接与客户对话。

Marketers see the world like the chairman of Acme. As renowned professor Philip Kotler of the Kellogg School at Northwestern teaches, marketing comes first. Marketing integrates all the functions of a business and speaks directly to the customer through advertising, salespeople, and other marketing activities.

营销是艺术与科学的特殊结合。在营销课程中可以学到很多东西,但是再多的学校教育也无法教会您成为真正有天赋的营销人员的经验、直觉和创造力。这就是为什么那些有天赋的人薪水如此之高。正规教育只能为 MBA 提供应对营销挑战的框架和词汇。这就是本章的目标,也是领先商学院举办的众多昂贵的高管研讨会的目标。

Marketing is a special blend of art and science. There is a great deal to be learned in marketing classes, but no amount of schooling can teach you the experience, the intuition, and the creativity to be a truly gifted marketer. That’s why those with the gift are so highly paid. Formal education can only provide MBAs with a framework and a vocabulary to tackle marketing challenges. And that is the goal of this chapter and of the numerous expensive executive seminars conducted by the leading business schools.

一流的学校为学生准备担任行政营销职位——尽管他们的第一份工作可能是大型食品或肥皂公司的低级品牌助理。因此,核心课程强调全面营销策略的发展,而不是 MBA 学校入门级工作所需的技术专长。

The top schools prepare their students for executive marketing positions—in spite of the fact that their first jobs will likely be as lowly brand assistants at large food or soap companies. Therefore, the core curriculum stresses the development of full-fledged marketing strategies instead of the technical expertise needed on an entry-level job out of MBA school.

以数字为导向的学生倾向于将市场营销视为“软”MBA 学科之一。事实上,营销人员使用许多定量或“科学”技术来制定和评估策略。营销的“艺术”是试图制定和实施成功的营销计划。确实有无数种可能可行的可能性。麦当劳、汉堡王、Wendy's、Hardee's 和 White Castle 都成功地销售了汉堡包,但它们的销售方式各不相同。因为没有“正确”答案,营销课程可以为学生提供展示个人才华的机会,或者在他们试图提出创意时经历许多小时的挫折。市场营销是我最喜欢的科目。为讨论准备想法很有趣。

Numbers-oriented students tend to view marketing as one of the “soft” MBA disciplines. In fact, marketers use many quantitative or “scientific” techniques to develop and evaluate strategies. The “art” of marketing is trying to create and implement a winning marketing plan. There are literally an infinite number of possibilities that may work. McDonald’s, Burger King, Wendy’s, Hardee’s, and White Castle successfully sell burgers, but they all do it in different ways. Because there are no “right” answers, marketing classes can provide students with either an opportunity to show their individual flair, or many hours of frustration as they try to come up with creative ideas. Marketing was my favorite subject. It was fun cooking up ideas for discussion. My B-school buddies still kid me about the time I proposed to the class that Frank Perdue introduce a gourmet chicken hot dog.

 

 

营销策略过程

THE MARKETING STRATEGY PROCESS

营销过程是一个循环函数。营销计划经历许多变化,直到所有部分在内部一致并且相互支持目标。提案的所有方面都需要协同工作才能有意义。把一个部分做对很容易,但内部一致且相互支持的营销计划是一项伟大的成就。这是一个由七部分组成的过程。

The marketing process is a circular function. Marketing plans undergo many changes until all the parts are internally consistent and mutually supportive of the objectives. All aspects of a proposal need to work together to make sense. It is easy to get one part right, but an internally consistent and mutually supportive marketing plan is a great accomplishment. It’s a seven-part process.

 

 

一、消费者分析

1. Consumer Analysis

2.市场分析

2. Market Analysis

三、比赛及自我回顾

3. Review of the Competition and Self

4. 分销渠道回顾

4. Review of the Distribution Channels

5. 开发“初步”营销组合

5. Development of a “Preliminary” Marketing Mix

6. 经济学评价

6. Evaluation of the Economics

7. 修订和扩展步骤 1-6,直到出现一致的计划

7. Revision and Extension of Steps 1–6 until a consistent plan emerges

营销策略制定

MARKETING STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT

图片

虽然有七个步骤,但它们的顺序并不是一成不变的。根据情况和您的个人风格,步骤的顺序可能会重新安排。本章可能会陷入营销理论的泥潭,但为了使其实用,我将概述制定营销计划时应考虑的问题和领域。为了方便起见,我将专注于产品营销,但相同的框架和词汇也适用于服务营销。

Although there are seven steps, their order is not set in stone. Based on circumstances and your personal style, the order of the steps may be rearranged. This chapter could get bogged down in a morass of marketing theory, but to make it practical, I will outline the questions and areas that should be considered when developing a marketing plan. For expediency, I will concentrate on product marketing, but the same frameworks and vocabulary are also applicable to service marketing.

我将按照在最好的学校教授的相同的七步顺序介绍 MBA 模型。本章提供了一个通用结构,适用于您可能遇到的任何营销问题。我没有忘记使用学校教授的词汇,因此您可以学习 MBA 行话并像真正的 MBA 营销人员一样说话。市场营销是一个专业词汇特别丰富的领域。有了正确的词汇,即使是平庸的营销创意也能显得光彩夺目。这听起来可能很有趣,但这就是广告公司营销产品的方式,即广告。

I will present the MBA models in the same seven-step order in which they are taught at the best schools. This chapter offers a generic structure to apply to whatever marketing issue you may encounter. I have not neglected to use the vocabulary taught at the schools, so you can pick up on the MBA jargon and speak like a real MBA marketer. Marketing is an area especially rich in specialized vocabulary. With the correct vocabulary, even your mediocre marketing ideas can appear brilliant. That may sound funny, but that’s the way ad agencies market their product, advertising.

这个七步营销流程很全面,MBA们经常会提到更缩写的,比如STP(segment, target, position),或者营销的4C(consumer behavior, company analysis, competitor analysis, context),但是这里介绍的方法涵盖了这一切。

This seven-step marketing process is comprehensive, and MBAs will often refer to more abbreviated ones, such as STP (segment, target, position), or the four C’s of marketing (consumer behavior, company analysis, competitor analysis, context), but the methodology presented here covers it all.

 

 

1. 消费者分析

1. CONSUMER ANALYSIS

消费者分析→ 市场 → 竞争 → 分销 → 营销组合 → 经济学 → 修订

Consumer Analysis → Market → Competition → Distribution → Marketing Mix → Economics → Revise

所有营销计划都应从了解最重要的“消费者”及其需求开始。人们没有相同的需求或欲望。消费者分析的目的是确定具有相似需求的人群中的部分或群体,以便营销工作可以直接针对他们。从其他任何地方开始往往会限制您的思维和所有后续分析。必须问几个重要的问题才能找到可以释放无数营销财富的市场:

All marketing plans should begin with a look at the all-important “consumer” and his or her needs. People do not have the same needs or desires. The objective of consumer analysis is to identify segments or groups within a population with similar needs so that marketing efforts can be directly targeted to them. Starting anywhere else tends to restrict your thinking and all subsequent analysis. Several important questions must be asked to find the market that will unlock untold marketing riches:

 

 

什么是需求类别?

What is the need category?

谁在购买,谁在使用产品?

Who is buying and who is using the product?

购买流程是怎样的?

What is the buying process?

我销售的产品是高参与度还是低参与度的产品?

Is what I’m selling a high- or low-involvement product?

如何细分市场?

How can I segment the market?

 

 

什么是需求类别?谁需要我们,为什么?

What is the need category? Who needs us and why?

您的产品满足的需求或用途是什么?这个问题似乎没有必要,但在回答这个问题时,您可能会发现以前被忽视的产品的潜在市场。这就是为什么必须先解决这个问题,然后再开始用世俗的思想污染你的心。Arm & Hammer 小苏打公司的人员进行了大量此类分析。他们在自己品牌的牙膏、空气清新剂和地毯清新剂中使用了他们的粉末。此外,他们推荐他们的生小苏打粉有数百种用途,这对他们有利可图。

What is the need or use that your product addresses? The question may seem unnecessary, but in answering it you may uncover a potential market for the product that was previously overlooked. That is why this question has to be addressed first, before you begin to pollute your mind with conventional thoughts. The people at Arm & Hammer baking soda have done a great deal of this type of analysis. They have made use of their powder in their own brand of toothpaste, air freshener, and carpet freshener. In addition, they profitably recommend their raw baking-soda powder for hundreds of uses.

 

 

谁在购买与谁在使用该产品?

Who is buying versus who is using the product?

买家很多时候与用户不同。例如,女性购买男士内衣和袜子的大部分。如果广告活动想要针对男士袜子的购买者,那么在体育画报中购买空间可能是不合适的。确定购买者和用户可以为制定营销计划提供必要的初步见解。

Buyers many times are different from users. Women, for example, make the majority of purchases of men’s underwear and socks. If an advertising campaign wanted to target the buyer of men’s socks, it would probably be inappropriate to buy space in Sports Illustrated. Determining the buyer as well as the user provides the essential initial insights to create a marketing plan.

 

 

购买流程是怎样的?

What is the buying process?

一旦您确定了需求以及购买者是谁,您就应该尝试对产品的购买方式做出假设。市场研究是主要的信息来源,但您自己的观察、调查和直觉同样有效。

Once you have established the need, and who is making the purchases, you should try to form a hypothesis on how the product is bought. Marketing research is a prime source of information, but just as valid are your own observations, investigation, and intuition.

了解购买过程至关重要,因为它将导致接触买家的可能途径。购买过程包括一个人进行购买的所有步骤。它也被一些学者称为采用过程解决问题的过程。一些研究人员称之为学习/感觉/做的过程。其他人称之为 AIDA,意为注意力/兴趣/欲望/行动。我已经广泛阅读了这个主题,并将理论归结为五个步骤。对于任何特定产品,购买过程可以包括以下一个或所有步骤:

Understanding the buying process is critical because it will lead to the possible routes to reach buyers. The buying process includes all the steps that a person takes leading to a purchase. It is also called the adoption process and the problem-solving process by some academics. Some researchers call it a Learn/Feel/Do process. Others call it AIDA, for Attention/Interest/Desire/Action. I have read extensively on this topic and have boiled the theories down to five steps. For any particular product, the buying process can include one or all of the following steps:

 

 

意识信息搜索评估备选方案购买评估

AwarenessInformation SearchEvaluate AlternativesPurchaseEvaluate

以购买肥皂为例,流程如下所示:

In the instance of a soap purchase, the process would look like this:

 

 

闻身体 → 我应该使用什么?→ 肥皂 → 向妻子征求意见 → 去商店看看 → 阅读标签 → 购买 Dial Soap → 洗澡 → 闻体味 → 下次购买 Dial Soap

Smell Body → What Should I Use? → Soap → Ask Wife for Advice → Make Trip to the Store → Read Labels → Buy Dial Soap → Bathe → Smell Body for Odor → Buy Dial Soap Next Time

购买过程的步骤说明:

The steps of the buying process explained:

意识。(兴趣,问题识别)。“我可能需要一些东西。” 在某个时候,一个人会意识到需要,比如需要使用肥皂。广告可能会触发这种需求。名牌服装和香水等名牌产品会激发人们的欲望。他们满足情感需求,例如爱和群体接纳。海飞丝利用对失去爱和群体接纳的恐惧。您需要问自己,“消费者如何了解我的产品?” “我的目​​标可能在哪里接触到我的信息?”

Awareness. (Interest, Problem Recognition). “I might need something.” At some point a person will realize a need, like the need to use soap. Advertising may trigger that need. Prestige products such as designer clothes and fragrances trigger desire. They meet emotional needs such as love and group acceptance. Head & Shoulders preys on the fear of a loss of love and group acceptance. You need to ask yourself, “How do consumers become aware of my product?” “Where are my targets likely to be exposed to my message?”

信息搜索。“听起来不错,让我了解一下。” 参与购买决策的人会面临来自各种来源的信息:消费者报告、销售人员、博客、专业杂志、家人、朋友和当地专家。作为营销经理,您希望您的目标市场在买家做出购买决定的时间和地点获得尽可能多的有关您产品的有利信息。例如,商店陈列在购买点(POP) 扮演着这个角色。Cover Girl Cosmetics 在药店有展示,帮助买家选择颜色。出于同样的目的,雅诗兰黛 (Estée Lauder) 在百货公司让其倩碧 (Clinique) 女装代言。

Information Search. “Sounds good, let me find out more about it.” People involved in purchase decisions are confronted with information from a variety of sources: Consumer Reports, salespeople, blogs, specialty magazines, family, friends, and local experts. As a marketing manager, you want your target market to get as much favorable information as possible about your product when and where buyers make their buying decisions. For example, store displays play that role at the point of purchase (POP). Cover Girl Cosmetics has a display in drugstores to help buyers select colors. For the same purpose, Estée Lauder has its Clinique ladies in department stores to do its talking.

评估备选方案。哪一个最适合我?这不仅包括类别内的产品,还包括替代品。当面对汽车的高价时,大学生可能最终会购买摩托车、助力车或自行车。根据产品的重要性,消费者可能会寻求更多信息和建议。购车通常包括前往当地机械师或附近的汽车爱好者。将积极的信息放在买家可能会看到的地方是营销成功的关键之一。

Evaluate the Alternatives. Which one is best for me? This includes not only products within a category, but substitutes as well. When confronted with the high prices of automobiles, a college student may end up buying a motorcycle, a moped, or a bicycle. Depending on the importance of the product, consumers may seek additional information and advice. Car purchases often include a trip to the local mechanic or the neighborhood car buff. Placing positive information where your buyers are likely to look is one key to marketing success.

在购买过程的这个阶段,营销经理想要确定目标购买行为的影响因素。在高尔夫行业,俱乐部职业选手是影响高尔夫球手购买装备决策的关键因素。如果你能卖掉pro,你就可以卖给俱乐部的会员。

At this stage of the buying process the marketing manager would like to identify the influencers of his target’s buying behavior. In the golf industry the club pro is a key influencer in the equipment-buying decision of golfers. If you can sell the pro, you can sell to the club’s members.

分销在购买过程的评估阶段也很重要。如果产品不容易获得,可以选择类似的替代品,只是为了方便或需要的紧迫性。可口可乐和百事可乐的广泛分销使得任何新的可乐竞争对手都很难成为边缘品牌。即使你渴望 Dr. Brown 的奶油苏打水,当您在海滩上口渴时,您可能会接受可口可乐或百事可乐。

Distribution is also crucial at the evaluation stage of the buying process. If a product is not readily available, a comparable substitute may be chosen just for convenience or immediacy of need. Coca-Cola’s and Pepsi’s wide distribution makes it tough for any new cola competitor to ever be any more than a fringe brand. Even if you crave Dr. Brown’s creme soda, you will probably accept a Coke or a Pepsi when you’re thirsty at the beach.

购买决定。这是大甩卖。尽管购买的决定可能是肯定的,但在某些情况下,第一次购买只是一种尝试。采用“新的和改进的”赏金纸巾作为您的常规品牌只有在成功测试那些顽固的溢出物后才会出现。对于许多大件物品,如远洋游轮和电器,无法进行试用。在这些情况下,决策过程更加耗时且难以做出,因为涉及的风险更大。营销人员了解风险非常重要。通过使用多种营销工具,例如广告、知识渊博的销售人员、保修和印刷材料,可以通过向买方提供信息来解释他或她可以期望的性能水平以及提供依据来降低购买风险与竞争产品的比较。

The Purchase Decision. This is the big sale. Even though the decision to buy could be yes, in certain instances the first purchase is only a trial. Adoption of “new and improved” Bounty paper towels as your regular brand occurs only after a successful test with those tough spills. With many big-ticket items, such as ocean cruises and appliances, a trial is not possible. In those instances the decision process is more time-consuming and difficult to make because there is more risk involved. It is very important for the marketer to understand risk. Through the use of a number of marketing tools, such as advertising, knowledgeable salespeople, warranties, and printed materials, purchase risk can be reduced by offering the buyer information explaining what level of performance he or she can expect, as well as providing a basis of comparison with competing products.

评估。(购买后行为)。我做错了吗?这个结论可以通过测试产品的功效在物理层面上得出,也可以通过检查同行认可在心理层面上得出。买家的悔恨购后失调是描述购买后经常出现的混乱时期的术语。例如,汽车广告不仅针对潜在购买者,而且针对最近的购买者,以确保他们在购买道奇大篷车小型货车而不是本田奥德赛时没有搞砸。

Evaluate. (Postpurchase Behavior). Did I make a mistake? This conclusion can be reached either on a physical level by testing the product’s efficacy or on a psychological level by checking for peer approval. Buyer’s remorse and postpurchase dissonance are terms to describe the period of confusion that often follows a purchase. Automobile advertising, for example, is not only targeted at potential buyers, but also at recent buyers to reassure them that they didn’t screw up when they bought a Dodge Caravan minivan instead of a Honda Odyssey.

在试图理解购买过程的过程中,营销计划的最初火花可能会被点燃成关于广告或促销的初步想法(稍后在战略制定过程的第 5 步中考虑)。

In trying to understand the buying process, the first sparks of a marketing plan can be ignited into a tentative idea about advertising or promotion (to be considered later in Step 5 of the strategy development process).

 

 

研究有助于了解购买过程。消费者研究是帮助购买过程理论发挥作用的主要工具。研究可以向营销总监展示他在哪些方面取得了成功,在哪些方面需要重新努力。如果研究可以转化为有形的营销行动,那么它就很有价值。在开始研究之前,您必须问自己:

Research Can Help to Understand the Buying Process. Consumer research is a major tool in helping make the buying process theory useful. Research can show a marketing director where he has succeeded and where his efforts need to be redirected. Research is valuable if it can be translated into tangible marketing actions. Before you embark on research, you must ask yourself:

“我需要回答什么具体问题?”

“What specific question do I need answered?”

“一旦我得到这些信息,我将如何使用它?”

“How am I going to use the information once I have it?”

如果您还没有想清楚这两个简单的问题,您可能会浪费时间和金钱。我可以向你保证,许多营销研究公司会很乐意帮你浪费钱。

If you haven’t thought through these two simple questions, you will probably waste your time and money. I can assure you that many marketing research companies will be glad to help you waste money.

 

 

该产品是高参与度产品还是低参与度产品?

Is the product a high- or a low-involvement product?

正如对购买者行为的讨论所表明的,不同的产品因其对购买者和用户的内在重要性而引发不同的购买行为。如果消费者在购买产品时感到高水平的“风险”,则该产品被认为是高参与度产品。做出高度参与的购买决定有几个原因:

As the discussion of buyer behavior indicates, different products elicit different purchase behaviors because of their inherent importance to the buyer and user. If the consumer feels a high level of “risk” in buying a product, then it is considered a high-involvement product. There are several reasons for high-involvement purchase decisions:

 

 

高价

High price

对产品利益的需求(例如,起搏器的可靠性)

The need for the product’s benefit (e.g., reliability, as in the case of a pacemaker)

对产品心理奖励的需求(如地位、爱情)

The need for the product’s psychological reward (e.g., status, love)

 

 

服装、汽车和专业服务是高参与度购买的例子。它们通常价格较高,有时难以比较。确定备选方案之间的差异会使高参与度的购买变得困难,尤其是当买家不是专家时。因此,信息搜索可以相当广泛。例如,在就损害索赔提起诉讼时,通常没有第二次机会将案件提交审判。因此,律师的选择是一个高参与度的选择。对于低参与度的产品,决策更简单。例如,如果棒棒糖不好吃,您可以随时推销它并再买一个。

Clothing, cars, and professional services are examples of high-involvement purchases. They are usually higher priced and at times difficult to compare. Determining the differences between alternatives makes high-involvement purchases difficult, especially if the buyer is not an expert. Thus, the information search can be quite extensive. When litigating a damage claim, for example, usually there is no second chance to take the case to trial. Therefore, the choice of a lawyer is a high-involvement selection. With low-involvement products the decision is simpler. For example, if a candy bar isn’t tasty, you can always pitch it and buy another one.

下面一个有用的矩阵捕捉了参与程度和产品差异的相互作用可能导致的行为。通过了解可能的行为,作为营销人员,您可以利用这些知识来销售您的产品。

A helpful matrix below captures the possible behaviors resulting from the interaction of the levels of involvement and product differences. By understanding the possible behaviors, you, as a marketer, may be able to take advantage of this knowledge to sell your product.

消费者行为矩阵

CONSUMER BEHAVIOR MATRIX

图片

改编自 Henry Assael,《消费者行为与营销行动》,第 4 版。(波士顿:PWS-Kent Publishing Co.,1992),p。100。

Adapted from Henry Assael, Consumer Behavior and Marketing Action, 4th ed. (Boston: PWS-Kent Publishing Co., 1992), p. 100.

 

 

这种学术模式确实对现实世界的行动有影响。高参与度的产品,例如哈雷戴维森摩托车,会出现在矩阵的左上角。该模型表明哈雷的营销努力应该着眼于展示其技术优势,但也包括一种情感诉求——“购买美国经典车型”——以培养忠诚度。

This academic model does have real-world implications for action. A high-involvement product, such as a Harley-Davidson motorcycle, would appear in the upper left-hand corner of the matrix. The model would suggest that Harley’s marketing efforts should be geared toward demonstrating its technical superiority, but also include an emotional appeal—“buy an American classic”—to engender loyalty.

当营销人员将以前参与度低的产品转变为参与度高的产品时,他或她的魔力就发挥了作用。运动鞋就是一个典型的例子。运动鞋曾经只是体育课的功能鞋,如今已成为年轻人身份的象征,甚至成为市中心街头的杀人凶手。低参与度产品向高参与度产品的转换,可以使简单的商品产品在未分化的竞争领域中脱颖而出。有四种通用方法可以实现这一点。

The marketer’s magic is at work when he or she transforms a previously low-involvement product into a high-involvement one. Athletic shoes are a prime example. Once just functional shoes for gym class, sports shoes have become a status symbol for young people and even the cause of murder on inner-city streets. The conversion of a low-involvement product to a high-involvement product can make a simple commodity product stand out against an undifferentiated field of competitors. There are four generic ways in which this can be accomplished.

将产品与高参与度问题联系起来。将不含胆固醇的食用油与妻子对丈夫心脏病发作的恐惧联系起来是广告策略的典型例子。

Link Product to a High-Involvement Issue. Linking no-cholesterol cooking oil to a wife’s fear of a husband’s heart attack is a classic example of an advertising ploy.

使用涉及广告。如果广告创造了关于产品或服务的价值表达信息,那么产品就会变得重要。这些信息将社会地位和爱情等价值观联系起来,而不是宣传产品的物理属性以将产品与竞争对手区分开来。百事可乐试图通过在精心制作的广告中使用歌手来销售其汽水,从而将现代和年轻与其产品联系起来。

Use Involving Advertising. If the advertising creates a value-expressive message about the product or service, then a product can become important. Such messages link values, such as social status and love, instead of promoting physical product attributes to differentiate the product from the competition. Pepsi tries to link being modern and youthful with its products by using singers in elaborate commercials to sell its soda.

改变产品优势的重要性。产品和服务提供各种好处。如果通过营销行动可以将利益提升到更高的重要性水平,购买者可能会更多地参与其中。80 年代的啤酒大战使卡路里成为重要的竞争问题。一个被忽视的属性——卡路里——让有健康意识的饮酒者更清楚他们的购买决定,因此 Miller Lite 就像一个强盗。在 2000 年代是碳水化合物。2012 年,烘焙食品上的“无麸质”标签吸引了许多人,甚至对那些没有麸质过敏的人也是如此。

Change the Importance of Product Benefits. Products as well as services provide a variety of benefits. If through marketing action a benefit can be raised to a heightened level of importance, buyers are likely to become more involved. The beer wars of the 1980s made calories an important competitive issue. An overlooked attribute—calories—made health-conscious drinkers more aware of their purchasing decisions, and consequently Miller Lite made out like a bandit. In the 2000s it is carbohydrates. In 2012 the “gluten-free” labels on baked goods were attractive to many, even to those with no gluten allergy.

向产品介绍重要特性。营销人员还可以修补产品本身的一些元素以区分它。当在家用清洁剂上引入儿童保护盖时,父母对这一购买决定的参与度提高了。第一批带有保护盖的产品在商店货架上脱颖而出。但是,一旦所有竞争对手都复制了上限,就需要新的差异化途径,并且购买会恢复到低参与状态。

Introduce Important Characteristic to Product. A marketer can also tinker with some of the elements of the product itself to distinguish it. When childproof caps were introduced on household cleaners, the involvement of parents in this purchase decision was heightened. The first products with protection caps stood out on the store shelves. But once all competitors copied the cap, new avenues of differentiation were needed and the purchase returned to its low-involvement status.

真正的低参与度产品通常是这样的,因为需要最低水平的可接受性能。例如,图钉的制作难度并不大。不管是什么牌子,都不会出错。如果试验的成本很低,例如一包口香糖,就很难激发参与。

Truly low-involvement products often are that way because a minimum level of acceptable performance is required. A thumbtack, for example, does not have a difficult job to perform. No matter what the brand, you can’t go too wrong. If the cost of trial is low, such as for a pack of gum, involvement is difficult to stimulate.

与参与相关的是采购计划的水平。购买是有计划的还是冲动购买?高参与度产品通常是计划好的,而冲动型产品是一时冲动购买的。如果计划购买,那么买家可能会寻求信息。如果不是,那么产品与需求的接近度很重要。零食是冲动购买的一个例子。中午的饥饿导致最近的垃圾食品。

Related to involvement is the level of purchase planning. Is the purchase planned or an impulse buy? High-involvement products are usually planned, while impulse products are bought on the spur of the moment. If a purchase is planned, then a buyer is likely to seek information. If not, the proximity of the product to the need is important. Snack foods are an example of impulse buying. Midday hunger leads to the nearest junk food.

 

 

我打算细分市场吗?为什么?如何?

Do I intend to segment the market? Why? How?

我在买家行为部分回避了这个问题,但问题是“谁是我们的消费者?” 是营销任务的核心。如果您认为您拥有适合每个人的东西,那么大众市场策略是合适的。如果你的产品满足了大众,那就把它喂给他们。如果不是,您必须选择一个或多个市场细分作为目标。细分市场是由具有相似需求和愿望的相似消费者组成的同质群体。例如,可口可乐采用大众市场的方式让每个人都喝到“真货”。Snapple 是一种特色茶,它吸引的是更狭义的细分市场。它的价格更高,瓶子的形状也不同。Snapple 吸引了软饮料市场的一个特殊部分。

I skirted around this issue in the buyer behavior section, but the question “Who is our consumer?” is central to the marketing task. If you think you have something that is for everyone, then a mass market strategy is appropriate. If your product satisfies the masses, then feed it to them. If not, you must choose a segment or segments of the market to target. Segments are homogeneous groups of similar consumers with similar needs and desires. For instance, Coca-Cola uses a mass-market approach to get everyone drinking the “real thing.” Snapple, a specialty tea, appeals to a more narrowly defined market segment. It’s priced higher and its bottle is shaped different. Snapple appeals to a special segment of the soft drink market.

市场细分具有以下功能:

Segmentation of the market serves the following functions:

 

 

确定足够大的细分市场以提供有利可图的服务。

To identify segments large enough to serve profitably.

确定可以通过营销努力有效达到的细分市场。

To identify segments that can efficiently be reached by marketing efforts.

帮助制定营销计划。

To help develop marketing programs.

 

 

通过牢记一个明确的细分市场,您可以有效地瞄准并高效地执行您的营销活动,以产生最大的销售额和利润。如果没有目标,您就有可能将营销资金浪费在不感兴趣的人身上。细分消费者市场时使用了四个主要变量:

By having a definite segment in mind, you can effectively aim and efficiently execute your marketing activities to yield the most sales and profits. Without a target, you risk wasting marketing dollars on disinterested people. There are four major variables used in segmenting consumer markets:

  • 地理的
  • Geographic
  • 人口统计
  • Demographic
  • 心理描写
  • Psychographic
  • 行为的
  • Behavioral

地理分割。按国家、州、地区、县和城市划分市场。联邦人口普查列出了 310个标准大都市统计区(SMSA),以定义美国的主要地理人口中心。大型媒体研究公司 Arbitron 定义了一个类似的衡量标准来占领该国的 210 个主要电视市场,称为主导影响区域(ADI)。竞争对手 AC Nielsen 也有类似的衡量标准,称为指定市场区域(DMA)。

Geographic Segmentation. Divides the market by country, state, region, county, and city. The federal census lists 310 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSAs) to define the major geographic population centers of the United States. Arbitron, a large media research firm, has defined a similar measure to capture the 210 major television markets of the country, called Areas of Dominant Influence (ADIs). A. C. Nielsen, a competitor, has a similar measure called Designated Market Areas (DMAs).

 

 

人口细分。根据以下可测量变量划分人口以达到同质人群:

Demographic Segmentation. Divides a population based on the following measurable variables to reach a homogeneous group of people:

 

 

年龄——不同世代的不同需求

Age—Different generations’ different wants and needs

性别——性别使用和购买模式

Sex—Gender use and buying patterns

收入——购买能力

Income—The ability to purchase

婚姻状况——家庭需要

Marital Status—Family needs

家庭生命周期——开始,空巢老人等。

Family Life Cycle—Starting out, empty nesters, etc.

教育/职业——消费者成熟度的标志

Education/Occupation—An indication of the sophistication of the consumer

种族、宗教和种族——特殊的品味和偏好

Ethnicity, Religion, and Race—Particular tastes and preferences

 

 

心理细分。按心理差异划分市场:

Psychographic Segmentation. Divides the market by psychological differences:

 

 

生活方式——活动、兴趣和观点

Lifestyle—Activities, interests, and opinions

性格——保守、冒险、追求地位、强迫性、雄心勃勃、专制、合群。(人们可能有不同的热键,广告可以尝试触发这些热键。)

Personality—Conservative, risk-taking, status-seeking, compulsive, ambitious, authoritarian, gregarious. (People may have different hot buttons that advertising can try to trigger.)

 

 

心理细分是困难的。人格变量比人口统计学更难识别和量化,但它们可能很有价值。

Psychographic segmentation is difficult. Personality variables are tougher to identify and quantify than demographics, but they can be valuable.

 

 

行为细分。按可观察的购买行为划分市场:

Behavioral Segmentation. Divides the market by observable purchase behaviors:

 

 

使用——使用量、使用方式、寻求的好处

Usage—Amount of use, manner of use, benefits sought

购买场合——礼物、假期、季节性等。

Purchase Occasion—Gift, vacation, seasonal, etc.

品牌忠诚度——对一种产品的忠诚度表明对其他产品的接受度

Brand Loyalty—Loyalty to one product indicates receptiveness to others

对价格和促销的反应——一些群体比其他群体对特殊营销活动的反应更多。家庭主妇比单身职业女性使用更多优惠券。

Responsiveness to Price and Promotion—Some groups respond to special marketing efforts more than others. Housewives use more coupons than single professional women.

 

 

营销人员不仅要选择“正确”的变量组,还要决定使用多少变量。正确数量的“有用”变量将确定最容易访问和接受的目标,而不是最具体的目标。例如,可以将 Corvette 的目标细分描述为棕色头发的男性,年龄在 25 到 65 岁之间,收入超过 75,000 美元。然而,通过有效的广告只针对棕色头发的男性的能力是有限的,而且它的实用性值得怀疑。棕色头发是必要的分割变量吗?没有专门针对棕色头发男性的杂志。此外,金发和红发男性也可能是克尔维特的合理市场。您应该使用以下标准来评估可能的营销细分:

Marketers must not only select the “right” group of variables but also decide how many to use. The correct number of “useful” variables will identify the most accessible and receptive target, not the most specific. For example, it is possible to describe a target segment for Corvettes as brown-haired, male, twenty-five to sixty-five years old, with income over $75,000. However, the ability to target just brown-haired men with effective advertising is limited and its usefulness would be dubious. Is brown hair a necessary segmentation variable? There are no magazines exclusively targeted to brown-haired males. Besides, blond and redheaded men may also be a reasonable market for Corvettes. You should use the following criteria to evaluate possible marketing segments:

 

 

可衡量性——你能确定细分市场吗?你能量化它的大小吗?

Measurability—Can you identify the segment? Can you quantify its size?

可及性——您能否通过广告、销售人员或分销商、运输或仓储进入细分市场?

Accessibility—Can you reach the segment through advertising, sales force or distributors, transportation, or warehousing?

实质性——该细分市场是否足够大以致于烦恼?该细分市场是在缩小、成熟还是在增长?

Substantiality—Is the segment large enough to bother with? Is the segment shrinking, maturing, or growing?

盈利能力——是否有足够的潜在利润使目标值得?

Profitability—Are there enough potential profits to make targeting it worthwhile?

与竞争的兼容性——你的竞争对手对这个细分市场感兴趣吗?竞争对手目前正在调查它还是不值得他们麻烦?

Compatibility with Competition—Are your competitors interested in this segment? Are competitors currently investigating it or is it not worth their trouble?

有效性——贵公司是否有能力为这一细分市场提供充分的服务?

Effectiveness—Does your company have the capabilities to adequately service this segment?

防御能力——你能防御竞争对手的攻击吗?

Defendability—Can you defend yourself against a competitor’s attack?

 

 

有了这个理论背景,下面是营销人员实际使用的美食咖啡买家的人口统计资料样本:

With that theoretical background, here’s a sample demographic profile of gourment coffee buyers that marketers actually use:

 

 

二十五至五十四岁

Twenty-five to fifty-four years old

受过大学教育

College educated

专业或企业高管就业

Professional or business executive employment

无子女家庭

Childless households

家庭收入超过 100,000 美元

Household incomes greater than $100,000

 

 

这个细分市场是可衡量的、可访问的、规模大的和有利可图的。因此,许多大型咖啡公司继续瞄准它。

This market segment is measurable, accessible, large, and profitable. Consequently, many large coffee companies continue to target it.

即使在看似毫无希望的市场中,也可能存在被其他人忽视的细分市场。施乐在 1970 年代控制了 88% 的复印机市场。其大部分销售额来自大中型单位。但到 1985 年,施乐失去了一半以上的市场份额。发生了什么?施乐忽视了小型复印机市场。数以千计的复印需求不多的小公司每次有复印工作时都不得不跑到当地的复印店。佳能、夏普和理光通过销售更小、更便宜的复印机抢占了这个市场。在小型复印机市场站稳脚跟后,日本竞争对手开始在大型复印机市场上击败施乐。

Even in markets that appear hopeless, there may be a segment that others overlook. Xerox controlled 88 percent of the copier market in the 1970s. The majority of its sales came from large and medium-sized units. But by 1985, Xerox had lost more than half of its market share. What happened? Xerox ignored the small-copier market. Thousands of small companies with light copy needs had to run to the local copy shop every time they had a copy job. Canon, Sharp, and Ricoh seized this market by selling a smaller and less expensive copier. With a foothold in small copiers, the Japanese competitors proceeded to topple Xerox in the large-copier segment of the market.

当您需要制定全面的营销策略时,消费者分析可以起到“启动泵”的作用。首先这样做,以免您将作为战略开发框架的一部分执行的定量分析扼杀您的创造力。第一步,您可以“直观”地选择目标细分。完成其他步骤后,可以对其进行更改以适应不断发展的营销策略。

Consumer analysis serves to “prime the pump” when you need to form a comprehensive marketing strategy. Do it first so as not to stifle your creativity with the quantitative analysis you will perform as part of the strategy development framework. On a first pass, you can make an “intuitive” choice of a target segment. After the other steps are completed, it can be altered to fit an evolving marketing strategy.

 

 

2. 市场分析

2. MARKET ANALYSIS

消费者 →市场分析→ 竞争 → 分销 → 营销组合 → 经济学 → 修订

Consumer → Market Analysis → Competition → Distribution → Marketing Mix → Economics → Revise

细分分析侧重于个体消费者,而市场分析则从更广泛的角度看待潜在消费者,包括市场规模和趋势。市场分析还包括对竞争和监管环境的审查。通过仔细检查市场,营销经理可以确定所选细分市场是否值得进行有针对性的营销工作。MBA 提出三个重要问题来评估市场:

While segmentation analysis focuses on consumers as individuals, market analysis takes a broader view of potential consumers to include market sizes and trends. Market analysis also includes a review of the competitive and regulatory environment. By closely examining the market, a marketing manager can determine if the segment selected is worth the trouble of a targeted marketing effort. MBAs ask three important questions to evaluate a market:

 

 

什么是相关市场?

What is the relevant market?

产品在其产品生命周期中处于什么阶段?

Where is the product in its product life cycle?

行业的关键竞争因素是什么?

What are the key competitive factors in the industry?

 

 

什么是相关市场?

What is the relevant market?

最容易犯的错误是认为您的相关市场包括您产品类别的总销售额。在我接受 MBA 教育的第一年和第二年之间,我在一家国际贸易公司工作。我调查了在美国杂货店出售墨西哥美味咖啡粉的可能性。如果我认为所有咖啡销售都在我的相关目标市场,那将是一种误导。1990 年,美国大约售出了 110 亿美元的咖啡。然而,其中 60% 是在商店出售的,而另外 40% 是卖给机构市场的,包括餐馆和自动售货机。这给我留下了 66 亿美元的零售市场。

The easiest mistake to make is to believe that your relevant market includes the total sales of your product’s category. In between the first and second years of my MBA education, I worked for an international trading company. I investigated the possibility of selling a Mexican gourmet ground coffee in U.S. grocery stores. It would have been misleading for me to assume that all coffee sales were in my relevant target market. Approximately $11 billion of coffee was sold in the United States in 1990. However, 60 percent of that total was sold in stores, while the other 40 percent was sold to the institutional markets, including restaurants and vending machines. That left me with a retail market of $6.6 billion.

但在那个更大的咖啡市场中,在到达我的最终相关市场之前,还有其他子市场需要调查。极品咖啡市场的销售额为 7.5 亿美元,占零售市场销售额的 11%。在极品咖啡市场中,只有 60% 的咖啡不含人工香料。我的墨西哥咖啡没有添加剂,生产商拒绝为他的咖啡添加人为风味。因此,我的相关市场进一步减少到4.5亿美元。但在那个市场份额中,只有 55百分比在超市出售。这给我留下了 2.48 亿美元的市场。是我的相关市场。

But within that larger coffee market there were additional submarkets to investigate before arriving at my final relevant market. The gourmet coffee market accounted for $750 million, or 11 percent of the retail market’s sales. Within the gourmet coffee market, only 60 percent of the coffees sold had no artificial flavorings. My Mexican coffee had no additives and the producer refused to artificially flavor his coffee. Therefore, my relevant market was further reduced to $450 million. But of that market slice, only 55 percent was sold in supermarkets. That left me with a $248 million market. That was my relevant market.

一旦确定了细分市场,您就必须询问它是否足够大且易于访问以证明您的营销努力是合理的。如果该问题的答案是否定的,那么您拥有的是所谓的“可制造”产品,而不是“可销售”产品。只有适销对路的产品才能赚钱。

Once a market segment is identified, you have to ask if it is large and accessible enough to justify your marketing effort. If the answer to that question is no, then you have what is called a “makable” product, but not a “marketable” one. Only marketable products make money.

这些问题很难回答,涉及市场研究。如果是新产品,答案不会是现成的。可能必须使用测试市场来获取该信息。此步骤可能导致进一步的部门调查。

These questions are difficult to answer and involve marketing research. If it is a new product, the answers will not be readily available. Test markets may have to be used to obtain that information. This step may lead to further segment investigation.

还应注意市场中消费者细分市场的增长和下降。当市场在增长时,未来的销售增长可能来自新用户或现有客户。如果馅饼在缩小,任何销售增长都必须来自竞争对手的隐藏,他们会与您争夺市场份额!顺应人口趋势以吸引不断增长的老年人市场,Centrum 维生素的制造商 Pfizer 对配方进行了小幅调整,并成功推出了其“Silver”配方。

The growth and decline of consumer segments within a market should also be noted. When the market is growing, future sales growth can come from new users or existing customers. If the pie is shrinking, any sales growth has to come out of your competitors’ hide, and they’ll fight you for market share! Following the demographic trends to attract a growing senior citizen market, Pfizer, the manufacturer of Centrum vitamins, made a minor reformulation and successfully introduced its “Silver” formula.

 

 

产品在其产品生命周期中处于什么阶段?

Where is the product in its product life cycle?

产品可以通过其在产品生命周期(PLC) 中所处的阶段来表征。PLC 不仅是时间因素,还描述了产品的销售如何随着新的细分市场开始意识到并开始购买而增长。移动电话服务始于 70 年代初期,当时只有不到一万名用户。但直到 1990 年代,当价格下降并且许多人买得起他们的汽车时,一个拥有超过 600 万用户的多细分市场才出现。现在人人都有手机。

Products can be characterized by the stage that they are at in their product life cycles (PLC). Instead of being merely a factor of time, the PLC describes how a product’s sales grow as new segments become aware and begin buying it. Cellular phone service began in the early 1970s with fewer than ten thousand users. But it wasn’t until the 1990s, when the prices dropped and many could afford a unit for their cars, that a multisegment market of over 6 million users emerged. Now everyone has a cell phone.

PLC 概念很重要,因为人口传播或采用的过程对产品的营销方式有重大影响。随着产品的成熟,每个产品都会开发出自己独特的 PLC。了解 PLC 可以让您获得竞争对手可能缺乏的 MBA 洞察力。

The PLC concept is important because the process of diffusion or adoption by the population has major implications for how a product is marketed. Each product develops its own unique PLC as it matures. Understanding the PLC can give you an MBA insight that your competitors may lack.

PLC 的四个通用阶段及其对行动的影响是:

The four generic stages of the PLC and their implications for action are:

第一阶段:介绍,“这是什么?” 需要意识和教育。如果可能的话,试用很重要。宣传可能会产生高昂的广告费用。一些供应商首先选择在一些选定的商店独家分销他们的产品。最初,随着客户需求的了解,公司会频繁更改产品。第一批购买者称为创新者,其次是早期采用者。他们自由地承担购买风险,因为他们的个性或钱包允许他们这样做。当公司推出新产品时,经理们必须做出艰难的定价决定,因为通常没有比较的基础。初始价格和利润水平对未来与竞争对手的竞争结果以及您进行额外研发的能力(如纳米机器人、高级时装和赤脚跑鞋等产品)具有重大影响。

Stage 1: Introduction, “What is it?” Awareness and education are needed. If possible, a trial is important. High advertising costs may be incurred to get the word out. Some vendors opt for an exclusive distribution of their products in a few select outlets at first. Initially companies make frequent product changes as customers’ needs become known. The first buyers are called the innovators, followed by the early adopters. They freely take purchase risks because their personalities or pocketbooks allow them to do so. When companies introduce new products, managers must make difficult pricing decisions because there is frequently no basis for comparison. The level of initial prices and profits has great implications regarding the outcome of future battles with competitors as well as your ability to perform additional research and development (as with products like nanobots, couture fashion, and barefoot running shoes).

第二阶段:增长,“我在哪里可以得到它?” 教育仍然很重要,但现阶段竞争加剧。早期的大多数人开始感兴趣。随着越来越多的消费者熟悉一种产品,他们会检查新型号来决定购买哪种,而不是是否应该购买。当买家到达商店时,他们开始比较功能。为了使产品更容易获得,营销人员通常选择选择性分销以获得更多数量和种类的网点。在这个“临界点”,重要的是要在竞争中领先于您的销售量,以便通过生产和广告效率降低成本。这有助于公司在 PLC 的下一阶段(例如 3D 电视、平板电脑和电子阅读器)获得竞争优势。

Stage 2: Growth, “Where can I get it?” Education is still important, but at this stage competition is intensified. The early majority becomes interested. As more consumers become familiar with a product, they examine the new models to decide which to buy, not whether they should buy. When buyers get to the store, they start comparing features. To make the product more accessible, marketers often choose a selective distribution to gain a greater number and variety of outlets. At this “tipping point” it is important to boost your sales volume ahead of the competition in order to reduce costs through production and advertising efficiencies. This helps a company gain the competitive advantage in the next stage of the PLC (e.g., 3D TVs, tablet computers, and e-readers).

第三阶段:成熟,“为什么是这个?” 在这个阶段,大众市场的后期购买者占多数。由于人们习惯于购买产品并且差异很小,因此品牌忠诚度起着主导作用。在稳定的市场中,价格竞争往往会变得激烈,因为额外的市场份额直接来自您的竞争对手。在成长阶段非常重要的产品功能已经标准化。由于产品属性的差异化程度较低,因此广告被用作区分产品的工具。营销经理试图尽可能地细分他们的目标市场,以满足特定的未满足的消费者需求。在成熟市场中,竞争对手正在挖掘所有可能的细分市场。所有可能的分销渠道也被考虑使用大众市场分销策略(例如,GPS 导航器、笔记本电脑、紧凑型荧光灯泡)。

Stage 3: Maturity, “Why this one?” At this stage the late majority of the mass market buys. Because people are accustomed to buying the product and the differences are few, brand loyalty plays a dominant role. Price competition often becomes heated in stable markets because additional market share comes directly from your competitors. The product’s features that were so important in the growth stage have become standardized. Because there is less differentiation on product attributes, advertising is used as a vehicle to differentiate products. Marketing managers try to segment their target market as much as possible to meet specific unmet consumer needs. In mature markets, competitors are ferreting out all possible segments. All possible channels of distribution are also considered using a mass market distribution strategy (e.g., GPS navigators, laptops, compact flourescent bulbs).

第四阶段:拒绝,“多少钱?” 随着产品在其 PLC 中老化,其竞争对手可能会提供类似的产品。即使是最胆小的消费者,落后者,也会发现在这个后期购买产品是安全的。(如果它确实会导致癌症,那么 FDA 现在通常已经发现了。)消费者对广告充耳不闻,因为他们知道所有竞争产品都是一样的。在这个阶段,如果竞争仍然存在,许多公司会集中精力降低价格,或者如果竞争领域变薄,则缓慢提高价格。此时,贸易关系是留在零售货架上的关键,因为如果没有新奇的刺激,分销商和零售商宁愿为更新的和可能更有利可图的产品分配空间。卖出交易的努力通常被称为关系营销(例如,CD、留声机、35 毫米相机)。

Stage 4: Decline, “How much?” As a product ages in its PLC, it is likely that its competitors offer similar products. Even the most timid consumers, the laggards, find it safe to buy the product at this late stage. (If it does cause cancer, the FDA has usually found out by now.) Consumers turn a deaf ear to advertising because they know that all competing products are the same. At this stage many companies focus their efforts on reducing price if competition remains, or slowly increasing prices if the competitive field thins. Trade relations are key to staying on the retail shelf at this point, because without the excitement of novelty, distributors and retailers would rather allocate space to newer and potentially more profitable products. The effort to sell the trade is popularly called relationship marketing (e.g., CDs, phonographs, 35mm cameras).

对于某些产品,成熟阶段并不一定意味着死亡。产品可以在成熟期后重新焕发活力,并开始新的增长阶段。在 80 年代 Topps Inc. 的营销努力的鼓励下,棒球交易卡经历了这样的复兴,并在 1990 年代失去了光彩。

With some products the maturity phase does not necessarily mean death. Products can be reinvigorated after a period of maturity, and a new growth phase can begin. Baseball trading cards underwent such a revival, encouraged by Topps Inc.’s marketing efforts in the 1980s, and lost their luster in the 1990s.

在某些情况下,挥之不去的垂死挣扎为最后的制造商带来了巨额利润。在为旧电视、收音机和其他设备提供电子管的真空管业务中,Richardson Electronics 是这个曾经由 GE、RCA、Westinghouse 和 Sylvania 主导的行业的幸存者。使用最终策略,剩下的生产商可以从客户那里获取大量利润,因为他们无处可去购买替换零件。

In some cases, lingering death throes produce large profits for the last manufacturer. In the vacuum tube business, which supplies electronic tubes for old TVs, radios, and other equipment, Richardson Electronics is the survivor in an industry once dominated by GE, RCA, Westinghouse, and Sylvania. Using an end game strategy, the remaining producers can extract large profits from customers since they have nowhere else to go for their replacement parts.

产品生命周期

THE PRODUCT LIFE CYCLE

图片

 

 

行业内的关键竞争因素是什么?

What are the key competitive factors within the industry?

每个行业或市场的竞争基础往往不同。它对企业如何进军市场有重大影响。有五个主要的关键竞争因素构成了大多数行业的战场:

The basis of competition in each industry or market tends to be different. It has a major impact on how a business attacks its market. There are five major key competitive factors that constitute the battleground in most industries:

 

 

  • 质量
  • Quality
  • 价格
  • Price
  • 广告
  • Advertising
  • 研究与开发
  • Research and Development
  • 服务
  • Service

例如在快餐行业,密集的广告和促销是关键。在向他人提供原材料的行业中,价格和服务是关键。在我对咖啡行业的调查中,我发现价格和质量是竞争的基础。在制定营销计划时,您可能想尝试将竞争基础改变为有利于贵公司的竞争基础,但不能忽视关键的潜在竞争因素。

In the fast food industry, for example, intensive advertising and promotion are key. In industries providing raw materials to others, price and service are key. In my investigation of the coffee industry, I found price and quality to be the basis of competition. When developing a marketing plan, you may want to try to change the basis of competition to one that favors your firm, but the key underlying competitive factors cannot be ignored.

 

 

3. 贵公司与竞争对手的分析

3. ANALYSIS OF YOUR COMPANY VERSUS THE COMPETITION

消费者 → 市场 →竞争分析→ 分销 → 营销组合 → 经济学 → 修订

Consumer → Market → Competitive Analysis → Distribution → Marketing Mix → Economics → Revise

到这个阶段,营销人员已经初步选择了他或她的努力方向的消费者细分市场。现在,必须制定击败竞争对手的计划。你需要以同样的客观性看待自己和竞争对手。你有什么优势?你擅长什么?(MBA 称之为核心能力。)你的弱点是什么?贵公司如何利用其优势或利用竞争对手的弱点?以下问题有助于解决这个问题。

By this stage the marketer has preliminarily chosen a consumer segment toward which to direct his or her efforts. Now, a plan to beat the competition must be developed. You need to look at yourself and at the competition with the same level of objectivity. What are your advantages? What things do you do well? (MBAs call them core competencies.) What are your weaknesses? How can your company capitalize on its strengths or exploit your competitors’ weaknesses? The following questions help to flush that out.

 

 

您的 SWOT 与您的相比如何

How does your SWOT Compare to Your

竞争对手的SWOT

Competitor’s SWOT

SWOT 是 MBA 用来组织之前关于贵公司如何与竞争对手竞争的问题的相关框架。SWOT 代表优势、劣势、机会和威胁。优势和劣势是内部因素。机会和威胁都是外部的。对您自己的公司以及您的竞争对手进行此分析至关重要。以下问题有助于找出 SWOT 分析所需的关键点。

SWOT is a related framework MBAs use to organize the previous questions about how your company stacks up versus the competition. SWOT stands for Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats. Strengths and weaknesses are internal factors. Opportunities and threats are external. It is vitally important to perform this analysis on your own company as well as on your competitors. The following questions help to flush out the key points required for a SWOT analysis.

 

 

你的公司擅长什么,竞争对手擅长什么?

What is your company good at and what is the competition good at?

  • 分销(菲多利)
  • Distribution (Frito-Lay)
  • 新产品开发和介绍(Apple)
  • New Product Development and Introduction (Apple)
  • 广告(Geico)
  • Advertising (Geico)

 

 

我们在市场上是谁?

Who are we in the marketplace?

  • 市场规模和相对 市场份额
  • Market Size and Relative Market Share
  • 财务状况
  • Financial Position
  • 历史业绩和声誉
  • Historical Performance and Reputation

 

 

我们的资源与竞争对手的资源相比如何?

What are our resources versus those of the competition?

  • 人们
  • People
  • 技术,研究
  • Technology, Research
  • 销售人员
  • Sales Forces
  • 现金
  • Cash
  • 贸易关系
  • Trade Relations
  • 制造业
  • Manufacturing

进入壁垒市场中的新竞争者在评估竞争中起着重要作用。障碍是新竞争者在进入市场之前必须克服的条件或障碍。现金和专业知识的可用性就是这样的障碍。例如,制药行业由少数公司主导。要成为参与者,公司需要大量的销售人员、研究实验室和大量的银行账户来支付这一切。由于这些障碍,大多数小公司如果有一种有前途的新药可以兜售,就会与大公司合作。在在线拍卖市场,eBay 拥有巨大的优势,因为它拥有庞大的买家群体、供应商基础和基础设施。另一方面,谷歌的互联网搜索竞争对手进入门槛较低。互联网搜索者可以轻松切换服务,而竞争对手,比如雅虎!或 Bing,可以开发新的搜索技术。谷歌正在创建竞争对手的搜索无法访问的专有信息数据库,以设置进入壁垒,并将用户与 Gmail 服务捆绑在一起。MySpace 是领先的社交平台,直到 Facebook 在 2008 年以更加用户友好的开放平台击败它。

Barriers to entry to new competitors in a market play an important role in assessing the competition. Barriers are conditions or hurdles that new competitors have to overcome before they can enter the market. The availability of cash and specialized knowledge are such barriers. The pharmaceutical industry, for example, is dominated by a few companies. To be a player, a company needs a large sales force, research labs, and a large bank account to pay for it all. Because of these barriers, most small companies team up with large ones if they have a promising new drug to peddle. In the online auction market, eBay has a huge advantage because of the size of its buyer audience, vendor base, and infrastructure. On the other hand, Google’s Internet search competitors have a lower barrier to entry. Internet searchers can easily switch services, and competitors, such as Yahoo! or Bing, can develop new search technologies. Google is creating proprietary databases of information that competitors’ searches can’t access to create a barrier to entry as well as tying users to the service with Gmail. MySpace was the leading social platform until Facebook overwhelmed it in 2008 with a more user-friendly, open platform.

如果一个行业的进入壁垒很低,那么竞争环境就会变得拥挤。精明的营销人员应该通过尝试形成新竞争对手无法轻易复制的营销策略来为这种可能性做好准备。这将在本书后面的“战略”一章中进行更全面的讨论。

If in an industry the barriers to entry are low, the playing field becomes crowded. Savvy marketers should plan for that eventuality by trying to form a marketing strategy that new competitors cannot easily copy. This is more fully discussed later in the book in the “Strategy” chapter.

在我的咖啡调查期间,我查看了我的公司必须提供的产品。它没有太多。它在美国没有任何经验。我们缺乏分销、广告专业知识、声誉和现金。我的墨西哥雇主唯一必须提供的是优质包装咖啡。一个小的竞争对手能对 Folgers 和 Maxwell House 咖啡做些什么?问了很多,心里有点不舒服,希望有大的食品公司愿意合资。我们将提供咖啡,合作伙伴将进行分销和营销。我们可以背负,就像小型制药公司所做的那样,认识到一些利润总比没有好。

During my coffee investigation, I looked at what my company had to offer. It didn’t have much. It didn’t have any experience in the United States. We lacked distribution, advertising expertise, a reputation, and cash. The only thing my Mexican employer had to offer was quality packaged coffee. What could a small competitor do against Folgers and Maxwell House coffees? After much questioning, and feeling a little ill, I hoped that there might be a large food company that would like to enter into a joint venture. We would supply the coffee and the partner would do the distribution and marketing. We could piggyback, not unlike what small pharmaceutical companies do, recognizing that some profit is better than none.

 

 

行业参与者的市场份额是多少?

What are the market shares of the industry players?

许多跟踪服务可用于消费品,例如 NPD Group 和 InfoScan。结账扫描仪和仓库跟踪收集超市销售数据。然而,对于工业产品,例如制造设备,信息的可访问性较低。贸易协会是一个很好的来源。

Many tracking services are available for consumer products such as NPD Group and InfoScan. Checkout scanners and warehouse tracking collect supermarket sales data. However, for industrial products, such as manufacturing equipment, the information is less accessible. Trade associations are a good source.

市场份额杠杆是检查行业内市场份额时要考虑的关键概念。相对于竞争对手拥有更大市场份额的公司通常享有更高的利润。较大的竞争对手可以以更便宜的单位生产,因为他们可以将成本分摊到更多单位。较小的竞争对手无力在研究或更高效的设备上花费那么多,因为较小的销量无法承受负担。如果我负责销售一种新的速溶咖啡,我将不得不重新考虑进入日益衰退的速溶咖啡市场,该市场由三个规模更大、成本更低的竞争对手主导:卡夫、雀巢和 Folgers。幸运的是,我的墨西哥咖啡进入市场,1989 年 18% 的“现磨”咖啡市场被较小的竞争对手控制。这一比例比 1986 年的 16% 有所增加。

Market share leverage is a key concept to consider when examining market shares within an industry. The companies with larger market shares relative to their competition usually enjoy higher profits. Larger competitors can produce more cheaply per unit because they can spread their costs over more units. A smaller competitor cannot afford to spend as much on either research or more efficient equipment, because the smaller sales volume cannot support the burden. If I had been charged with a new instant coffee to sell, I would have had to reconsider entry into the declining instant-coffee market dominated by three bigger, lower-cost competitors: Kraft, Nestlé, and Folgers. Fortunately for my Mexican coffee’s entry, in 1989 18 percent of the “ground” coffee market was controlled by smaller competitors. And that share had increased from 16 percent in 1986. This constituted a far more favorable environment for a new entrant such as my Mexican ground coffee.

 

 

我的产品在感知上如何与竞争对手相提并论?

How does my product perceptually map against the competition?

感知映射技术是一种查看和比较您的产品与竞争对手产品的图形方式。一个常用的格子就是价格质量,但还有许多其他的可能和有用的。地图是另一种 MBA 技术,可以为您的产品产生营销创意,感知地图可以通过显示消费者如何看待竞争产品来突出未服务的细分市场,而不管性能的物理现实。感知在营销中至关重要,就像在政治中一样。例如,在纸巾行业,纸巾强度和装饰者的吸引力很重要。例如,根据我自己的判断,我在下面创建了一个“假设”地图。请注意,通过提供强度和漂亮的模式,Bounty 发现自己是一个有利可图的细分市场。

The perceptual mapping technique is a graphic way to view and compare your product against the competitors’. A commonly used grid is price and quality, but many others are possible and useful. Maps are another MBA technique to generate ideas for marketing for your product, and perceptual maps may highlight an unserved market segment by showing how the consumer perceives competing products, regardless of the physical reality of performance. Perceptions are paramount in marketing, just as they are in politics. In the paper towel industry, for example, towel strength and decorator appeal are important. As an example, using my own judgment, I have created a “hypothetical” map below. Notice that Bounty found itself a profitable market segment by providing strength and a pretty pattern.

感知映射纸巾品牌(假设)

PERCEPTUAL MAPPING PAPER TOWEL BRANDS (HYPOTHETICAL)

图片

通过可视化您的产品与竞争对手的对比,您可以深入了解如何营销现有产品、进行产品更改或在综合营销策略中添加其他产品。

By visualizing how your product maps versus the competition, you may gain an insight into how to market your existing product, make product changes, or add additional products in a comprehensive marketing strategy.

如果你的公司在一个类别中有很多产品,那么你就被称为有深度线。在纸巾市场上,没有一家生产商主导这一类别。但在狗粮货架上,雀巢普瑞纳 (Nestlé Purina) 的 Dog Chow、Puppy Chow、HiPro、ONE、Beneful、Alpo 和至少六个其他品牌挤满了货架。

If your company has many products within a category, then you are said to have depth of line. In the paper towel market no one producer dominates the category. But over in the dog food aisle, Nestlé Purina depth chokes the shelves with Dog Chow, Puppy Chow, HiPro, O.N.E., Beneful, Alpo, and at least six other brands.

如果您的公司在各种产品类别中有许多产品,则可以说您拥有广泛的产品线。Kimberly-Clark 拥有种类繁多的纸制品,分为多个类别:Viva 纸巾、Kleenex 和 Scott 纸巾、Kotex 卫生巾以及 Huggies、Depend 和 Pull-Ups 纸尿裤。产品线的深度和广度可以巧妙地用于封锁策略,以防止竞争对手进入分销渠道。如果它们不在货架上,您的竞争对手就无法进行任何销售。

If your company has many products in a variety of product classes, you are said to have breadth of product line. Kimberly-Clark has a wide breadth of paper products in several categories: Viva paper towels, Kleenex and Scott tissue, Kotex sanitary napkins, and Huggies, Depend, and Pull-Ups diapers. Depth and breadth of product lines can be cleverly used in a blocking strategy to prevent competitors from gaining access to the channels of distribution. If they are not on the shelf, your competition can’t make any sales.

在狗粮行业,竞争对手围绕雀巢普瑞纳找到了其他接触狗主人的方法。Hill's Pet Nutrition 是 Colgate-Palmolive 的一个部门,通过兽医办公室推销了价值 22 亿美元的 Science Diet 宠物食品和其他产品。

In the dog food industry, competitors found other ways around Nestlé Purina to reach doggie owners. Hill’s Pet Nutrition, a division of Colgate-Palmolive, pushed $2.2 billion worth of Science Diet pet food and other products through veterinarians’ offices.

 

 

我的产品在竞争中的定位如何?

How is my product positioned against the competition?

在 1950 年代,一切都是为了创造一个专注于产品功能和客户利益的“独特销售主张”(USP)。在 1960 年代和整个 70 年代,产品的“形象”很重要。1972 年,Al Ries 和 Jack Trout 提出了“定位”的概念,此后一直流行至今。他们认为,消费者心目中对您的产品的看法实际上比产品属性的物理现实更重要。消费者相信的是他们的现实。他们有十项定位规则,他们认为这些规则可以使产品或服务在竞争中脱颖而出。

In the 1950s, it was all about creating a “unique selling proposition” (USP) that focused on product features and customer benefits. In the 1960s and throughout the 1970s, the product’s “image” was important. In 1972, Al Ries and Jack Trout developed the concept of “positioning” that has been popular ever since. They believed that the perception of your product in the minds of consumers is actually more important than the physical reality of the product’s attributes. What consumers believe is their reality. They had ten rules for positioning that they believe can make a product or service stand above the competition.

 

 

1.在消费者心中拥有一个词。如果您在消费者心目中确立了一种优势,消费者可能会将其他积极因素也归因于您的产品。FedEx 的意思是“隔夜送达”。一个词只能由一个公司拥有,一旦确立就很难改变。

1. Own a word in the consumer’s mind. If you establish one benefit in the consumer’s mind, the consumer may attribute other positives as well to your product. FedEx means “overnight delivery.” Only one company can own a word, and it is tough to change it once it’s established.

2.定位从产品名称开始。名称应该是描述性的,以在消费者心目中建立主要利益。Draino 打开堵塞的下水道。

2. Positioning begins with the product’s name. The name should be descriptive, to establish the main benefit in the consumer’s mind. Draino opens clogged drains.

3.如果你有一个独特的新产品,使用一个新的名字。Apple 没有使用 Apple Mini Mac 这个名称,而是选择了 iPod 名称作为他们的新音乐播放器。

3. If you have a unique new product, use a new name. Instead of using the name Apple Mini Mac, Apple chose the iPod name for their new music player.

4. 拥有一个词最简单的方法就是成为第一。消费者倾向于坚持使用适合他们的产品。面巾纸清洁流鼻涕。

4. The easiest way to own a word is to be first. Consumers tend to stick with products that work for them. Kleenex cleans runny noses.

5. 不要偏离你的信息;在所有营销活动中“强化原有概念”。“可口可乐经典是真实的!”

5. Don’t stray from your message; “reinforce the original concept” in all marketing activities. “Coke Classic is the real thing!”

6. 应对新竞争对手的最佳方式是引入新品牌,而不是模糊原来的品牌。当瓶装水流行时,可口可乐并没有叫他们的Coke Water,而是选择了Dasani。

6. The best way to respond to a new competitor is to introduce a new brand, not blurring the original one. When bottled water became popular, Coke didn’t call theirs Coke Water, rather, it chose Dasani.

7.关注者的第一个选择是建立一个新的类别。老牌品牌很难被击败,但消费者会更容易接受新品类。Charles Schwab 建立了折扣经纪类别。

7. The first option for a follower is to establish a new category. Established brands are tough to beat, but consumers will adopt a new category more easily. Charles Schwab established the discount brokerage category.

8.追随者的第二个选择是在消费者心目中找到一个开放的位置。星巴克成为优质速溶咖啡品牌。

8. The second option of a follower is to find an open position in the consumer’s mind. Starbucks became the premium quick-service coffee brand.

9. 追随者的第三种选择是重新定位竞争对手以削弱领导者的理念、产品或代言人。泰诺说,“如果你的胃不舒服,在服用阿司匹林之前先咨询你的医生。”

9. The third option for a follower is to reposition the competitor to undercut the leader’s concept, product, or spokesperson. Tylenol said, “If your stomach is upset, check with your doctor before your take aspirin.”

10. 与你选择的定位保持一致。

10. Stay consistent with the positioning you choose.

 

 

4. 分销渠道审查

4. REVIEW OF THE DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS

消费者 → 市场 → 竞争 →分销分析→ 营销组合 → 经济学 → 修订

Consumer → Market → Competition → Distribution Analysis → Marketing Mix → Economics → Revise

营销人员将接触消费者的途径称为分销渠道。接触客户的方式通常有很多种,就像狗粮销售中描述的那样。分销渠道分析至关重要,因为渠道的选择会影响您可以收取的价格,进而影响您可能享有的利润率。应该问三个问题,为您的分销决策提供依据:

Marketers speak of the avenues to the consumer as the channels of distribution. There are often many ways of reaching your customers, as described with dog food sales. Distribution channel analysis is critical, because the choice of channel influences the price you can charge, and, consequently, the profit margins that you may enjoy. Three questions should be asked to provide you with a basis for your distribution decision:

 

 

我的产品如何到达消费者手中?

How can my product reach the consumer?

每个分销渠道的玩家利润有多少?

How much do the players in each distribution channel profit?

谁掌握每个可用分销渠道的权力?

Who holds the power in each distribution channel available?

 

 

我的产品如何到达消费者手中?

How can my product reach the consumer?

在许多邮购目录的情况下,营销商和最终消费者之间存在直接联系。服装目录制造商对销售、退货、定价和消费者品味有直接的了解。作为杂货制造商,品牌经理与买家保持距离。例如,谷物必须去在到达消费者之前通过批发商和零售商。那些中间人被称为渠道中介。作为战略家,营销经理必须概述消费者制定计划的所有路径。

In the case of many mail-order catalogs, there is a direct link between the marketer and the final consumer. A catalog manufacturer of clothing has a direct pulse on sales, returns, pricing, and consumer tastes. As manufacturers of grocery items, brand managers are distanced from the buyer. Cereal, for instance, must go through wholesalers and retailers before reaching the consumer. Those middlemen are called channel intermediaries. As a strategist, the marketing manager must outline all the paths to the consumer to develop a plan.

消费者常用的渠道中介有:

Commonly used channel intermediaries to the consumer are:

 

 

  • 批发商
  • Wholesalers
  • 经销商
  • Distributors
  • 销售代表
  • Sales Representatives
  • 销售人员
  • Sales Forces
  • 零售商
  • Retailers

 

 

每个分销渠道的参与者如何获利?

How do the players in each distribution channel profit?

正如我所提到的,了解所有通往消费者的途径对于了解所有可能的产品营销方式很有帮助。花点时间把它们画在纸上。渠道草图还可以让您深入了解为获利而必须收取的零售价。

As I mentioned, it is helpful to understand all the paths to the consumer in order to know all the possible ways to market your product. Take the time to draw them out on paper. A channel sketch can also give you the insight into the retail price that must be charged to make a profit.

每个接触商品的人都会被抽走,这被称为他们的保证金。据说分销链中的参与者从制造商那里“获取利润”。作为产品的制造商,您不“给”渠道利润;没有慈善机构参与。大多数行业的渠道参与者将他们的削减计算为销售价格的加价。加拿大和一些美国制药公司在成本上加价,但它们是例外。售价不是最终的零售,而是一个中间商将商品卖给链条中下一个中间商的价格。零售价是消费者支付的价格。

Everyone who touches the merchandise takes a cut, which is called their margin. Participants in the distribution chain are said to “take margin” from the manufacturer. As a manufacturer of a product, you do not “give” the channel margin; there is no charity involved. Channel participants in most industries calculate their cut as a markup on selling price. Canadian and some U.S. drug firms use a markup on cost, but they are the exceptions. The selling price is not the ultimate retail price, but the price at which one intermediary sells goods to the next intermediary in the chain. The retail price is what a consumer pays.

由于我在咖啡行业的经验,我将使用咖啡零售来展示分销渠道的经济学。在链条的每一级,中介从上一级购买咖啡,并根据销售价格收取保证金到下一级。保证金不是基于成本。

Because of my experience in the coffee industry, I will use coffee retailing to demonstrate the economics of the channels of distribution. At each level of the chain, the intermediary buys the coffee from the previous level and takes a margin based on the sales price to the next level. The margin is not based on cost.

图片

在我的示例中,这就是价值 1 美元的咖啡豆如何以 6 美元的价格到达消费者手中。在每个级别,渠道参与者通过烘焙、研磨和包装咖啡豆来增加价值并产生成本;推广品牌;或为消费者分发和上架包装好的咖啡。我在下面概述了我估计的 Maxwell House 极品咖啡的渠道经济学。

This is how one dollar’s worth of coffee beans, in my example, can reach the consumer at a price of six dollars. At each level, the channel participant adds value and incurs costs by either roasting, grinding, and packaging the coffee beans; promoting the brand; or distributing and shelving the packaged coffee for the consumer. I have outlined below what I estimated were the channel economics for Maxwell House’s gourmet coffee.

在分销渠道的每一级,参与者执行其功能,获取利润,然后销售给更接近消费者的下一个参与者。如果卡夫食品等咖啡加工商认为其美味的 Maxwell House 咖啡品牌的零售价必须为每磅 4.00 美元而不是 6.00 美元,那么连锁店的经济状况就必须改变。让我们通过链条向后工作,看看它对每个级别收取的价格的影响。

At each level in the distribution channel, the participant performs its function, takes its margin, and sells to the next participant closer to the consumer. If a coffee processor, such as Kraft Foods, believes that its gourmet Maxwell House coffee brand must retail at $4.00 per pound rather than $6.00, then the economics of the chain must change. Let’s work backward through the chain to see its effect on the prices charged at each level.

图片

通过分销链向后工作:

Working backward through the distribution chain:

 

 

消费者零售价 4.00 美元× (1 .23 零售加价) = 3.08 美元

$4.00 Retail Price to Consumer × (1 .23 Retail Markup) = $3.08

批发商对零售商的 3.08 美元价格× (1 .09 批发加价) = 2.80 美元

$3.08 Wholesaler Price to Retailer × (1 .09 Wholesale Markup) = $2.80

2.80 美元是卡夫食品(加工商)对批发商的价格

$2.80 would be Kraft Foods’ (the Processor’s) Price to Wholesalers

 

 

在 4.00 美元的价格下,卡夫食品的品牌经理必须询问每磅 1.75 美元(2.80美元- 1.05 美元)是否足以支付成本并提供足够的利润。如果答案是否定的,品牌经理必须重新检查营销计划的渠道数学。因为营销策略是一个循环过程,所以可能不得不改变另一个价格、制造过程或成本。此类更改可能会影响计划的所有其他要素。

At the $4.00 price, Kraft Foods’ brand manager must ask if $1.75 ($2.80$1.05) per pound is a sufficient margin to cover costs and provide an adequate profit. If the answer is no, the brand manager must reexamine the marketing plan’s channel mathematics. Because marketing strategy is a circular process, another price, manufacturing process, or cost may have to be altered. Such changes could affect all the other elements of the plan.

渠道参与者的相对权力可以根据所选渠道的经济性决定定价。在卡夫食品的案例中,品牌经理本可以选择杂货店 4.00 美元的较低零售价。然而,他选择了 6.00 美元来获得他想要的利润。

The relative power of the channel participants can dictate pricing decisions based on the economics of the channel chosen. In Kraft Foods’ case, the brand manager could have opted for the lower $4.00 retail price in the grocery store. However, he chose $6.00 to yield his desired profits.

卡夫食品决定使用杂货店以外的替代渠道。卡夫“绕过”食品杂货贸易的中间商,通过邮购方式以每磅超过 8.00 美元的价格将其 Gevalia 咖啡品牌直接出售给咖啡爱好者。对于大多数产品,通常有多种方式可以接触到消费者。每个通道都有自己的通道余量数学。通过理解数学,您可以更好地选择频道。

Kraft Foods decided to use an alternative channel in addition to grocery stores. Kraft “bypassed” the grocery trade’s middlemen and sold its Gevalia coffee brand directly to coffee lovers by mail order at a price over $8.00 per pound. With most products there are usually a variety of ways to reach the consumer. Each channel has its own channel margin mathematics. By understanding the math you are better able to make a choice of channel.

MAXWELL HOUSE 私人收藏咖啡的分销渠道以及渠道利润和价格

CHANNEL OF DISTRIBUTION FOR MAXWELL HOUSE’S PRIVATE COLLECTION COFFEE WITH CHANNEL MARGINS AND PRICES

图片

 

 

谁在渠道中拥有权力?

Who has the power in the channels?

渠道能力问题对于选择销售地点至关重要。如果您的产品是独一无二的并且有需求,那么制造商通常有权概述关系条款。否则,渠道的中介机构将能够规定条款以获取尽可能多的利润。

The question of channel power is crucial in selecting where to sell. If your product is unique and in demand, then the manufacturer generally has the power to outline the terms of the relationship. If not, the channel’s intermediaries will be able to dictate the terms to take as much margin as possible.

在杂货贸易中,渠道的力量已经从制造商转移到连锁超市。随着小型杂货连锁店在 1980 年代合并为大型超级连锁店,大型连锁店的管理层意识到他们拥有宝贵的不动产“货架空间”。货架上的每个库存单位(SKU) 都占用空间。每个产品都必须进行跟踪、搁置和盘点。当 Mazola 食用油生产三种尺寸时,它占用三个 SKU。由于商店和仓库空间有限,货架空间变得很有价值,零售商希望为携带每个 SKU 付费。营销人员甚至像建筑师一样在称为货架图的图纸中绘制他们的货架,争夺最佳位置。

In the grocery trade, the power of the channel has shifted from the manufacturers to the supermarket chains. As smaller grocery chains consolidated into larger superchains in the 1980s, the larger chains’ management realized that they held the prized real estate, “shelf space.” Each stock keeping unit (SKU) on the shelf takes space. Each product must be tracked, shelved, and inventoried. When Mazola cooking oil produces three sizes, it takes up three SKUs. With a finite amount of store and warehouse space, the shelf real estate has become valuable, and retailers want to be paid for carrying each SKU. Marketers even diagram their shelves like architects in drawings called planograms and fight over best placement.

包装商品公司,无论大小,都必须经常向连锁店支付上架,以便在其货架上为新产品和现有产品预留“位置”。在 20 世纪 70 年代,包装商品巨头可以强迫他们的产品进入交易市场。当有许多较小的杂货连锁店时,宝洁公司和卡夫食品可以通过威胁扣留他们受欢迎的产品来对抗另一家连锁店。这已不再是这种情况。

Packaged-goods companies, large and small, must often pay slotting fees to the chains to reserve “slots” on their shelves for both new and existing products. In the 1970s the packaged-goods giants could force their products on the trade. When there were many smaller grocery chains, Procter & Gamble and Kraft Foods could play one chain against another by threatening to withhold their popular products. That is no longer the case.

不幸的是,新产品推出的上架费可能高达数百万美元。因此,在实践中,上架费会阻止较小的竞争对手在超市销售。我知道一家在中西部生产优质披萨的制造商未能起步,因为它无力支付空间所需的贿赂。进场费是零售业的“热门话题”。您可以随意将这个话题插入 MBA 对话中。

Unfortunately, slotting fees can run into millions of dollars for a new product introduction. Therefore, in practice, slotting fees bar smaller competitors from selling in the supermarket. A maker of an excellent pizza in the Midwest that I knew failed to get off the ground because it could not afford the bribes necessary for space. Slotting fees are a “hot topic” in retailing. Feel free to interject this topic into MBA conversation as often as you like.

 

 

互联网作为传播渠道的作用是什么?

What is the Internet’s role as a channel of distribution?

互联网可以成为销售产品的好方法。互联网作为客户沟通渠道具有四种功能,称为互联网营销的四个 C。网站的“商业”功能允许销售,但更重要的是它提供了一个 24/7 全天候店面,以适应客户购物、浏览和比较产品的时间表。您网站的“内容”是产品的延伸。它可以提供额外的支持和价值,如果它引人注目,它可以吸引新的潜在客户。iTunes.com 为 Apple 的 iPod 播放器提供音乐;到 2010 年,它售出了超过 100 亿首歌曲。您的站点可以通过允许客户访问他们的帐户、检查交付情况并获得常见问题 (FAQ) 的答案来提供“客户服务”。这取悦了客户,也降低了制造商的实时客户服务成本。最后,网站还可以从您的互联网和其他营销活动(如电视、广播、促销和公共关系)中“转化潜在客户”。

The Internet can be a great way to sell product. The Internet has four functions as a channel of customer communication, called the Four C’s of Internet marketing. The “commerce” function of a Web site allows for sales, but more importantly it provides a 24/7 storefront to fit the customer’s schedule to shop, browse, and compare product offerings. The “content” of your Web site is an extension of the product. It can provide additional support and value, and if it is compelling, it can attract new prospects. iTunes.com provides music for the Apple’s iPod player; it sold over 10 billion songs by 2010. Your site can provide “customer care” by allowing customers to access their accounts, check on deliveries, and get answers to frequently asked questions (FAQs). This pleases customers and also reduces a manufacturer’s cost of live customer service. And lastly, Web sites also “convert leads” from your Internet and other marketing efforts, such as television, radio, sales promotions, and public relations.

 

 

5. 营销组合的发展

5. DEVELOPMENT OF THE MARKETING MIX

消费者 → 市场 → 竞争 → 分销 →计划营销组合→ 经济学 → 修订

Consumer → Market → Competition → Distribution → Plan the Marketing Mix → Economics → Revise

根据对消费者、市场、竞争和分销渠道的分析得出的判断,营销经理必须做出一系列切实的决策。MBA 称之为行动计划。营销经理选择应该进行何种营销组合。这种组合通常被称为营销的四个 P。

Based on judgments developed in the analysis of the consumer, the market, the competition, and the distribution channels, the marketing manager must make a set of tangible decisions. MBAs call it the action plan. Marketing managers choose what mix of marketing efforts should be made. The mix is commonly referred to as the Four P’s of marketing.

营销组合的发展是一个渐进的过程,其目标是内部一致和相互支持的计划。这怎么强调都不为过。修补组合中的一个 P 通常意味着营销策略师必须以某种方式改变所有其他 P,因为一个 P 会影响其他 P。

The development of the marketing mix is an evolutionary process whose goal is an internally consistent and mutually supportive plan. That cannot be overemphasized. Tinkering with one P in the mix generally means the marketing strategist must alter all the other P’s in some way, because one P affects the others.

营销组合

THE MARKETING MIX

图片

 

 

产品          地方促销价

Product          Place          Promotion          Price

 

 

产品决策

PRODUCT DECISIONS

我的产品如何与我的其他产品相匹配?

How does my product fit with my other products?

我将如何区分我的产品?

How will I differentiate my product?

产品生命周期如何影响我的计划?

How does the product life cycle affect my plans?

 

 

该产品如何适合我现有的产品线?

How does the product fit with my existing product line?

这个问题试图确定您的产品之间的协同作用领域,或发现对您的活动的限制。例如,如果 Maytag 的“The Dependability People”将洗碗机添加到他们的洗衣机和烘干机系列中,则洗碗机的产品、客户和零售商将与他们现有的系列共享。这条线的延伸会很合适。但如果 Maytag 想要销售个人吹风机,那么合身性就值得商榷了。

This question tries to identify areas of synergy among your products, or uncover a constraint on your activities. For example, if “The Dependability People” at Maytag added dishwashers to their line of clothes washers and dryers, the product, the customers, and the retailers for the dishwashers would be shared with their existing line. There would be a fit with this line extension. But if Maytag wanted to sell personal hair dryers, the fit would be questionable.

我将如何区分我的产品?

How will I differentiate my product?

差异化是一个广泛的问题,包括营销人员可以将其产品与该领域区分开来的任何方式。因此,有很多方法可以做到这一点。

Differentiation is a broad issue that includes any way that a marketer can distinguish his product from the field. Consequently there are many ways to do it.

 

 

  • 特点——能力
  • Features—Capabilities
  • 合身——剪裁
  • Fit—Tailoring
  • 造型——功能性、视觉性
  • Styling—Functional, visual
  • 可靠性——保修、退货政策
  • Reliability—Warranties, return policies
  • 包装——颜色、尺寸、形状、保护
  • Packaging—Color, size, shape, protection
  • 尺码— 服装、电器、电脑和行李箱尺寸
  • Sizes—Clothing, appliance, computer, and luggage sizes
  • 服务——及时、礼貌、准确
  • Service—Timeliness, courtesy, accuracy
  • 品牌命名——标签
  • Brand Naming—Labeling

 

 

如果 Ralph Lauren 使用他的真名 Ralph Lifshitz,他将放弃在 2011 年价值 50 亿美元的服装、古龙水和床上用品上使用 Ralph Lauren 的 Polo 标签带来的心理好处。Lifshitz 不知何故无法传达英国贵族的形象。

If Ralph Lauren had used his real name, Ralph Lifshitz, he would have forgone the psychological benefits derived from his Ralph Lauren’s Polo label on $5 billion in clothing, cologne, and bedding in 2011. Lifshitz somehow fails to convey the image of English aristocracy.

在许多情况下,一种产品的所谓品牌资产可以通过品牌或产品线延伸战略转移到新产品上,以使其与众不同。卡夫食品选择将 Jell-O 品牌名称用于其新推出的布丁和冰淇淋。Jell-O 品牌赋予新产品 Jell-O 几十年来赢得的所有商誉和品牌认知度(品牌资产)。建立 Jell-O 品牌的品牌资产需要多年的昂贵广告。因此,自 1987 年以来推出的数千种新产品中,几乎 90% 都是产品线和品牌延伸。如果延伸得太远,品牌资产可能会被稀释,其对消费者的影响力也会贬值。

In many cases the so-called brand equity of one product can be transferred to new products using a brand or line extension strategy that differentiates it from the pack. Kraft Foods has chosen to place the Jell-O brand name on its new pudding and ice cream treats. The Jell-O brand bestows upon the new products all the goodwill and brand recognition (brand equity) that Jell-O has earned over decades. It would take many years of expensive advertising to establish the brand equity of the Jell-O brand. Accordingly, almost 90 percent of the thousands of new product introductions since 1987 were line and brand extensions. If stretched too far, a brand’s equity can be diluted and its effectiveness with consumers devalued.

选择这些产品差异化技术中的任何一种都会影响整个营销过程,因为它为您的促销工作奠定了基础。一种产品可以通过创意广告和促销从竞争中脱颖而出,即使竞争产品在物理上是相同的。

The choice of any one of these product differentiation techniques affects the entire marketing process, as it lays the groundwork for your promotional efforts. A product can be differentiated from the competition by creative advertising and promotion, even if competing products are physically identical.

感知图和定位有助于区分产品。提到的所有产品属性都会影响产品在市场中的定位。如果利润合理,营销人员总是可以请他公司的产品工程师开发产品的物理特性。正如我的纸巾感知图所示,消费者对同一产品类别有特定需求,他们对每种产品的看法也不同。营销人员的工作是对产品进行独特定位(如果需要,使用感知图作为指导)以在市场上赢得一席之地。那个地方通常被称为产品的利基在市场上。正如纸巾的感知图所示,Georgia Pacific 的 Brawny 品牌被定位为坚韧、耐用的毛巾,用于真正脏污的清洁。希望品牌经理通过瞄准他的产品服务最好的细分市场,选择一个能够产生最多销售额和利润的利基市场。定位与通过您的消费者和市场分析选择的细分市场密不可分。

Perceptual maps and positioning can help to differentiate the product. All the product attributes mentioned affect the positioning of a product in the marketplace. The marketer can always call upon his company’s product engineers to develop a product’s physical characteristics if the profits justify it. As my perceptual map of paper towels indicated, consumers have specific needs within a product class, and they perceive each product differently. The marketer’s job is to uniquely position the product (using a perceptual map as a guide if desired) to earn its place in the market. That place is often called a product’s niche in the market. As pictured in the perceptual mapping of paper towels, Georgia Pacific’s Brawny brand is positioned as the tough, durable towel for really dirty cleanups. Hopefully the brand manager will choose a niche that will yield the most sales and profits by targeting a market segment his product serves best. Positioning is inexorably tied to the market segment selected through your consumer and market analysis.

 

 

产品生命周期如何影响我的计划?

How does the product life cycle affect my plans?

基于产品生命周期(PLC)中的点,产品的不同方面在竞争中变得更加重要。前面对PLC的讨论指出,产品特性对于在成长期的产品差异化极为重要,而品牌在成熟阶段则越来越重要。例如,强调 CD 播放器的多重播放功能目前表明 PLC 处于成长阶段。在成熟的盒式录音机市场,自动倒车和杜比降噪之争早已上演。无论产品的选择如何,产品决策都会对组合中的其他 P 产生一定的影响。

Based on the point in the product life cycle (PLC), different aspects of the product become more important in the competitive battles. The previous discussion of the PLC noted that product features are extremely important to differentiate products in the growth phase, while branding is increasingly more important in the maturity phase. The emphasis on multiplay features on compact disc players, for example, currently indicates the growth phase of the PLC. In the mature cassette deck market, the battles over auto reverse and Dolby noise reduction have already been played out. Whatever the choices for the product, product decisions will have a definite effect on the other P’s of the mix.

 

 

产品          地方          促销价

Product          Place          Promotion          Price

 

 

销售地点决定:在哪里销售?

PLACE OF SALE DECISIONS: WHERE TO SELL?

在您审查分销渠道时,目标是确定存在哪些渠道以及可以获得哪些利润。在此阶段,在做出产品决策和选择目标市场后,营销人员必须选择适合产品和目标购买者的适当渠道。

In your review of the distribution channels, the goal was to determine what avenues exist and what margins are available. At this stage, having made product decisions and a choice of target market, the marketer has to choose an appropriate channel to fit with the product and the intended buyers.

 

 

我应该使用什么分配策略?

What distribution strategy should I use?

我应该根据什么来选择分销渠道?

On what basis should I choose a channel of distribution?

 

 

我应该选择什么类型的分销策略?

What type of distribution strategy should I select?

  • 独家——在每个市场仅在一家门店销售
  • Exclusive—Sell in only one outlet in each market
  • 选择性——只在每个市场的几个门店销售
  • Selective—Sell in only a few outlets in each market
  • 大量或密集——在尽可能多的销售点销售
  • Mass or Intensive—Sell in as many outlets as possible

销售地点会影响您对产品的看法。分销的选择是一个不断发展的过程,它与产品在整个产品生命周期中的预期扩散相匹配,如市场分析段落中所述。分销策略可以使您的产品与众不同。例如,如果一位新设计师选择在 Neiman Marcus独家销售,它会给产品带来一定的声望。消费者倾向于根据销售点来感知产品的某些属性,例如样式、质量和价格。同一位设计师可能会选择有选择地只在更好的百货公司销售,以提供更大的初始销量。加州车窗遮阳板的销售商没有这样的顾虑,并选择了大量分配策略。该公司希望尽可能广泛和快速地分发纸板灯罩。这个选择是有道理的,因为与设计师服装不同,这种色调没有任何地位吸引力,可以很容易地被复制和制造。

The place of sale affects the perception of your product. The choice of distribution is an evolving process that matches the product’s intended diffusion along the product life cycle, as described in the market analysis passage. A distribution strategy can differentiate your product from the crowd. For example, if a new designer chooses to sell exclusively at Neiman Marcus, it gives a certain cachet to the product. Consumers tend to perceive certain attributes in a product, such as style, quality, and price, based on the point of sale. The same designer may choose to selectively sell in only better department stores to provide greater initial sales volume. The California marketer of car-window sun shields had no such concern, and selected a mass distribution strategy. The company wanted to distribute the cardboard shade as widely and quickly as possible. That choice made sense since the shades, unlike designer clothing, did not have any status appeal and could easily be copied and manufactured.

这些分销方法中的每一种都对制造商和零售商施加了一定的责任。通过选择选择性,制造商可能“有义务”提供高质量、良好的服务,并可能为促销支持提供合作付款(co-ops)。当制造商与零售商分摊广告费用时,这称为合作广告。

Each of these distribution methods places certain responsibilities upon the manufacturer and the retailer. By choosing to be selective, the manufacturer may be “obligated” to provide high quality, good service, and possibly cooperative payments (co-ops) for promotional support. When manufacturers share the costs of advertising with retailers, that is called cooperative advertising.

在涉及制造商激励的分销关系中,零售商也有义务。零售商可能“有义务”通过给予产品优惠摆放、特别促销、展示和销售关注来特别关注产品。如果不履行这些义务,则合同被违反,关系可以被切断。在拉尔夫·劳伦 (Ralph Lauren) 的案例中,他相信自己的 Polo 服装系列非常独特,以至于他成为第一个要求在百货公司开设独立精品店空间的设计师。拉尔夫提供了零售商寻求的形象和利润。零售商反过来有义务为 Ralph Lauren 提供特殊的布局和销售服务。

In distribution relationships involving manufacturers’ incentives, the retailer is also obligated. Retailers may be “obliged” to pay special attention to the product by giving it preferential placement, special promotion, display, and sales attention. If those obligations are not met, the contract is breached and the relationship can be severed. In Ralph Lauren’s case he believed that his Polo clothing line was so unique that he became the first designer to demand separate boutique space in department stores. Ralph provided the image and the margins sought by retailers. The retailers were in turn obliged to provide Ralph Lauren with special placement and selling efforts.

 

 

选择哪些分销渠道?

Which channels of distribution to choose?

这取决于 。. . 在多种因素上。通常有不止一种选择。然而,如果一个渠道被整合到一个相互支持和内部一致的战略中,许多选择就有可能成功。三个因素应作为选择的指南。

It depends . . . on a variety of factors. There is usually more than one choice. However, if a channel is integrated into a mutually supportive and internally consistent strategy, many choices can potentially be successful. Three factors should serve as a guide to make a selection.

产品细节。另一个需要考虑的因素是销售所需的关注程度。这与产品的复杂程度、新旧程度或价格有关。尽管成本高昂,但该产品可能表明您需要自己的销售队伍。另一方面,糖果和软饮料等产品在上架前通过一系列批发商和分销商销售。这些产品很简单,不需要制造商直接控制展示和销售。

Product Specifics. Another factor to consider is the level of attention needed for the sale. This is related to the level of complexity of the product, the newness, or the price. The product may indicate a need for your own sales force despite the costs. On the other hand, products such as candy and soft drinks are sold through a series of wholesalers and distributors before reaching the store shelves. These products are simple and do not require direct control by the manufacturer over the presentation and sale.

需要控制。激励渠道有效且适当地投放您的产品的能力会影响投放决策。制造商与分销商、批发商和批发商之间的距离越远,制造商对产品销售方式的控制就越少。制药公司通常有自己的销售人员,也称为专属销售人员,他们经过全面培训,可以为医生提供可靠的信息。如果默克或辉瑞不得不依赖独立的销售队伍,他们将无法绝对控制他们在该领域的培训或行为。

Need for Control. The ability to motivate the channels to carry your product effectively and appropriately enters into the placement decision. The further the manufacturer is removed from the consumer with distributors, wholesalers, and jobbers, the less control the manufacturer has over how a product is sold. Pharmaceutical companies usually have their own sales forces, also called captive sales forces, that are thoroughly trained to provide credible information to doctors. If Merck or Pfizer had to rely on an independent sales force, they would not have absolute control over their training or conduct in the field.

所需边距。对分销渠道的分析有助于确定可用的潜在利润。每个级别的利润率在哪里?贵公司能否以有竞争力的价格通过渠道交付产品,并为自己保留足够的利润?根据可用利润,可以做出渠道决策。就 Bose 高价耳机和立体声音响而言,在公司商店、印刷品和其他形式的直接营销中更多的选择性营销使 Bose 能够保持利润并控制其品牌的优质形象。

Margins Desired. The analysis of the channels of distribution helps to determine the potential profits available. Where are the margins taken at each level? Can your company deliver the product through the channels at a competitive price and still reserve enough margin for itself? Based on the available margins, channel decisions can be made. In the case of Bose premium priced headphones and stereos, more selective marketing in corporate stores, print, and other forms of direct marketing allow for Bose to maintain their margins and control their brand’s premium image.

 

 

产品地方          促销          价

Product          Place          Promotion          Price

 

 

促销决定

PROMOTIONAL DECISIONS

促销包括营销计划的所有广告和销售工作。目标设定对于开展促销活动至关重要。在开始起草或花费促销预算之前,您需要知道要完成的任务。促销的最终目的是影响购买者的行为;因此,必须定义所需的行为。不同的产品,处于PLC的不同阶段,具有不同的参与程度和复杂程度,需要不同的促销力度来执行不同的任务。为您的产品选择的促销任务必须与您的消费者分析中概述的购买过程一致。

Promotion includes all the advertising and selling efforts of the marketing plan. Goal setting is paramount in developing a promotional campaign. You need to know the mission you want to accomplish before you can begin to draft or spend the promotion budget. The ultimate goal of promotion is to affect buyer behavior; therefore, the desired behavior must be defined. Different products, at different stages of the PLC, with different levels of involvement and complexity, require different promotional efforts to perform different missions. The promotional mission chosen for your product must be consistent with the buying process outlined in your consumer analysis.

 

 

购买过程: 意识

BUYING PROCESS: Awareness

促销任务:告知产品,提示需要的消息

PROMOTIONAL MISSION: Inform about product, prompt a need message

 

 

购买过程:利息

BUYING PROCESS: Interest

宣传使命:提供有说服力的信息,解决需要的信息

PROMOTIONAL MISSION: Provide compelling message, solve a need message

 

 

购买过程:试用

BUYING PROCESS: Trial

宣传使命:激励行动

PROMOTIONAL MISSION: Motivate action

 

 

购买过程:回购

BUYING PROCESS: Repurchase

促销任务:提示购买,增加使用量

PROMOTIONAL MISSION: Cue to buy, increase usage

 

 

购买过程:忠诚度

BUYING PROCESS: Loyalty

促销任务:强化品牌或形象,特别促销

PROMOTIONAL MISSION: Reinforce brand or image, special promotions

 

 

推还是拉策略?与分销一样,促销活动应以策略为指导。拉动策略是将买家拉到销售您产品的商店的那些努力。指示观众“在您当地的杂货店按名字询问 Perdue 鸡肉”的电视广告消费者吸引到销售它的商店。促销的另一个重要任务是鼓励分销渠道向消费者库存和销售产品。这种努力是一种推动策略。例如,啤酒经销商花费大量时间试图说服酒吧老板在轻敲。大多数计划都有推拉策略的要素。在啤酒行业,他们花费巨资宣传品牌并获得更大的酒吧分销。

Push or Pull Strategy? As with distribution, promotional efforts should be guided by a strategy. Pull strategies are those efforts that pull buyers to the outlets that carry your product. TV pitches that instruct viewers “to ask for Perdue chicken by name at your local grocer” pull consumers to the stores that carry it. Another important mission of promotion is to encourage the distribution channels to stock and sell a product to consumers. Such efforts are a push strategy. Beer distributors, for instance, spend a great deal of their time trying to court bar owners to stock and promote their brew on tap. Most plans have an element of both push and pull strategies. In the beer industry they spend heavily to advertise the brand as well as to gain greater bar distribution.

为了将买家拉到商店或推动分销渠道进货和销售,有五类促销工作:

To pull buyers to a store or to push the distribution channel to stock and sell, there are five general categories of promotional efforts:

 

 

广告

Advertising

个人销售

Personal Selling

打折促销

Sales Promotion

公共关系和宣传

Public Relations and Publicity

直销

Direct Selling

 

 

广告广告有多种形式:电视、广播、户外(广告牌)、杂志、关键字互联网搜索、横幅广告、弹出窗口、电子邮件和报纸。要记住的两件重要事情是您的预期任务和完成任务所需的暴露量的定量测量。

Advertising Advertising takes many forms: television, radio, outdoor (billboard), magazines, keyword Internet search, banner ads, pop-ups, e-mail, and newspaper. Two important things to keep in mind are your intended mission and the quantitative measurement of exposure required to accomplish it.

请注意以下测量词汇。这就是您购买广告时支付的费用。外行人的倾向是听信广告界的喋喋不休,不理解它,但还是会购买他们的商品。购买广告就像购买营销研究一样——知道你购买什么以及为什么购买——买家要当心。

Please pay attention to the following measurement vocabulary. This is what you pay for when you buy advertising. The tendency for the uninitiated is to listen to the ad world’s babble, not understand it, and buy their wares anyway. Buying advertising is just like buying marketing research—know what and why you are buying—buyer beware.

覆盖面频率是媒体目标的关键量化指标。到达率是目标市场中看到和听到您的促销或广告的百分比。频率是他们看到或听到它的次数。营销人员将一个人接触到一条消息的次数称为对该受众的总印象。由于与不同产品相关的购买行为,需要不同的覆盖面和频率组合来诱导购买。相乘时,到达率×频率等于称为总收视率(GRP) 的衡量标准。将 GRP 加在一起,您将获得总评分(TRP)。GRP 和 TRP 是广播、电视和户外广告销售和购买的衡量标准。

Reach and frequency are key quantitative measurements of media goals. Reach is the percentage of the target market who see and hear your promotion or advertisement. Frequency is the number of times they saw or heard it. Marketers refer to the number of times a person is exposed to a message as the total impressions made on that audience. Because of the buying behavior associated with different products, different mixes of reach and frequency are required to induce purchase. When multiplied, Reach × Frequency equals a measure called gross rating points (GRPs). Add the GRPs together and you get total rating points (TRPs). GRP and TRP are the measures by which radio, TV, and outdoor advertising is sold and purchased.

交付的受众所需的人口统计数据和细分变量也显着地进入了等式。一家电视台的地区性高尔夫节目向西南地区收入超过 100,000 美元的活跃的中年高尔夫男性播送,可以有效地用于为各种产品做广告。吸引混杂人口统计观众的电视节目在每位观众中的价值较低。即使您拥有合适的媒体工具,日程安排也是实现目标的关键。

The desired demographics and segmentation variables of the audiences delivered also enter prominently into the equation. A TV station’s regional golf program that delivers active, middle-aged golfing males with incomes over $100,000 in the Southwest could efficiently be used to advertise a variety of products. A TV program that attracts a muddled mix of demographic audiences is less valuable per audience member. Even if you have the right media vehicle, scheduling is key in reaching your target.

高 GRP 并不能保证销量。传递的消息也是一个关键的决定因素。当广告人提到广告的信息、文案(措辞)或布局时,他们称之为创意,一个名词。开发想法的广告代理人称为创意人员。

High GRPs do not guarantee sales. The message delivered is also a key determinant. When advertising people refer to the message, copy (wording), or layout of advertising, they call it the creative, a noun. Ad agency people who develop the ideas are called creatives.

杂志和报纸广告是根据发行量的大小和细分变量购买的。杂志的保质期更长,但报纸提供更直接和集中的地理读者群,这最适合促销。这两种印刷受众都是按每千人成本(CPM) 读者购买的。SRDS(标准费率和数据服务)在线或以一系列电话簿大小的卷提供媒体和邮寄列表价格的综合列表。

Magazine and newspaper advertising is purchased based on the size and segmentation variables of their circulations. Magazines have a longer shelf life, but newspapers deliver a much more immediate and focused geographic readership, which is best for sale promotions. Both of these print audiences are bought on a cost per thousand (CPM) readers basis. A comprehensive listing of media and mailing list prices is provided by SRDS (Standard Rate & Data Service) online or in a series of telephone-book-sized volumes.

衡量媒体竞争力的一个指标是声音份额。使用此衡量标准,广告商可以针对产品类别中所有竞争对手的一定比例的媒体支出。广告商认为,要通过竞争激烈的媒体混乱和喧嚣产生影响,相对支出水平与花费的绝对美元一样重要。

A competitive measure of media is share of voice. Using this measure, an advertiser can target a certain percentage of media spending by all competitors within a product category. Advertisers believe that to have an impact through the competitive media clutter and noise, the relative spending level is just as important as the absolute dollars spent.

通过混乱,投放电视广告来宣传我在暑期实习期间管理的小型咖啡品牌是徒劳的。一个小的竞争对手没有机会与宝洁、卡夫食品和雀巢这样的公司竞争,这些公司总共花费了数百万美元。任何负担得起的广告都会被巨头淹没。

Through the clutter, it would have been futile to run a TV ad to promote the tiny coffee brand that I managed during my summer internship. A small competitor had no chance against the likes of Procter & Gamble, Kraft Foods, and Nestlé, who together spend millions. Any affordable ad would have been drowned out by the giants.

请记住,每种媒体在影响人们方面都有其优势。有些人比其他人更有选择性。营销人员希望尽可能高效地达到预期目标,以引发所需的购买行为。

Remember, each medium has its strengths in reaching people. Some are more selective than others. Marketers want to reach their intended targets as efficiently as possible to induce the desired buying behavior.

 

 

个人销售。当营销人员需要与买家直接联系时,他们会选择人员销售。销售人员可以根据买家的需要和情况个性化您的信息,并可以在此交互过程中提出异议和问题。由于人工成本和支付的佣金成本高,这种途径通常是任何营销组合中最昂贵的元素。

Personal Selling. Marketers choose personal selling when they need to make direct contact with the buyer. A salesperson can personalize your message to fit the buyer’s needs and situation and can field objections and questions in this interactive process. This avenue is generally the most expensive element in any marketing mix because of the high cost of labor and commissions paid.

新产品、复杂产品或昂贵产品的经理发现,个人销售的好处往往超过其高成本。由于其他媒体工具无法进入某些目标市场,因此人员推销有时是接触消费者的唯一方式。净水系统、药品、复印机和工业产品在其营销组合中广泛使用人员销售。许多拒接电话名单的采用大大减少了电话推销员的使用。

Managers of products that are new, complex, or expensive find that the benefits of personal selling often outweigh their high cost. Because some target markets are inaccessible by other media vehicles, personal selling is sometimes the only means to reach consumers. Water purification systems, pharmaceuticals, copiers, and industrial products widely utilize personal selling in their marketing mixes. The use of telemarketers has greatly been reduced by the adoption of many do-not-call lists.

目前的理论认为人员推销是一种解决问题咨询的方式过程。弗吉尼亚大学达顿学院的 Derek A. Newton 教授认为个人推销多年来经历了四个阶段的发展:音乐人、动画目录、魔术公式和问题解决者。第一次世界大战之前,人们认为“音乐人”的销售方法是成功的关键。正是销售员的个性使他能够吸引顾客购买。第一次世界大战后,“动画目录”被认为是正确的销售方式。真空吸尘器的销售人员了解有关他们产品的所有信息,他们的销售演示是经过排练的目录读物。在 1930 年代,圆滑的推销或“魔术公式”被认为是最好的销售方法。百科全书的销售代表将控制演示并引导客户沿着“规划好的道路”走向“确定的销售”。” 目前书店货架上的许多书籍都声称它们掌握着如何完成销售的“秘密”。今天,学术界一致认为,个人销售仍然需要一些魅力和目录类产品知识,但销售人员还必须对潜在客户的需求和购买过程有广泛的了解才能取得成功。销售人员应该销售解决客户问题的利益,而不是简单地兜售产品。

Current theory holds that personal selling is a problem-solving and consultation process. Professor Derek A. Newton of the Darden School at the University of Virginia saw personal selling as having evolved over the years in four stages: Music Man, Animated Catalog, Magic Formula, and Problem Solver. Before World War I it was believed that the “Music Man” approach to selling was the key to success. It was the salesperson’s personality that enabled him to charm his customer into buying. After World War I, the “Animated Catalog” was considered the right way to sell. Vacuum cleaner salespeople knew all the facts about their products, and their sales presentations were rehearsed catalog readings. During the 1930s the slick pitch or “Magic Formula” was thought to be the best sales approach. Encyclopedia sales reps would control the presentation and lead the customer down a “mapped-out road” to a “sure sale.” Many books currently on the bookstore shelves claim they hold the “secret” of how to close a sale. Today, academics agree that personal selling still requires some element of pizzazz and catalog-like product knowledge, but sales forces must also have extensive knowledge of the prospect’s needs and buying processes to be successful. Salespeople should sell benefits that solve customers’ problems, rather than simply peddling products.

 

 

促销。促销旨在从消费者、销售人员和其他渠道参与者那里引发所需的行为。促销旨在补充和加强其他促销活动,尤其是广告。每种类型的促销活动都有自己的相关词汇,您应该了解这些词汇。如果您不是营销人员,了解词汇并不能使您成为专家,但如果需要,它肯定可以帮助您进行智能营销对话。有两种类型的促销:一种是针对消费者的,另一种是针对分销渠道的。

Sales Promotion. Sales promotion is designed to elicit the desired behavior from the consumer, the sales force, and other channel participants. Sales promotions are designed to complement and reinforce other promotional efforts, especially advertising. Each type of promotion has its own associated vocabulary that you should be aware of. If you are not a marketer, knowing the vocabulary does not make you an expert, but it can sure help you to engage in intelligent marketing conversation, if need be. There are two types of promotions: those directed toward the consumer, and those directed at the distribution channels.

可用的消费者促销技术包括优惠券、退款优惠、样品、赠品和竞赛。

Consumer sales promotions techniques available are coupons, refund offers, samples, premiums, and contests.

优惠券是将降价传递给消费者的直接方式。作为制造商,如果您给零售商打折希望他们将折扣转嫁给消费者,您可能会感到非常失望。营销人员使用优惠券来鼓励试用、品牌转换和品牌忠诚度。杂货优惠券通常放在周日报纸的特殊优惠券部分,称为独立插页(FSI)。FSI 的领导者是 Valassis Inserts,它印刷了每年在周日 FSI 中分发的 3320 亿张优惠券中的近一半。优惠券也可以在公司网站上以低廉的成本分发。社交媒体优惠券网站 Groupon 提供各种服务和产品的每日优惠。

Coupons are a direct way to pass a price reduction on to consumers. As a manufacturer, if you give retailers a discount in hopes that they will pass it along to consumers, you may be sadly disappointed. Marketers use coupons to encourage trial, brand switching, and brand loyalty. Grocery coupons are most often placed in a special coupon section of the Sunday paper called freestanding inserts (FSIs). The leader in FSIs is Valassis Inserts, which prints almost half of the 332 billion coupons distributed annually in Sunday FSIs. Coupons can also be distributed on a corporate Web site at little cost. Groupon, the social media couponing site, provides daily deals for a variety of services and products.

回扣也用于更昂贵的商品,尤其是电子产品,以降低它们对消费者的感知成本。回扣要求买家完成文书工作、保留收据并将其邮寄。由于涉及的工作,即使是 50 美元或更多的回扣也具有较低的赎回率。营销人员需要估算赎回率和净成本,并将净成本纳入营销预算。

Rebates are also used for more expensive items, especially electronics, to reduce their perceived cost to the consumer. Rebates require buyers to complete paperwork, retain receipts, and mail them in. Because of the work involved, even rebates of $50 or more have low redemption rates. Marketers need to estimate the redemption rate and net cost and include the net cost in their marketing budgets.

退款通常用于加快正常的消费者购买周期。退款通常用于通过鼓励买家囤货来增加购买数量或频率。电池制造商经常使用退款优惠。此类优惠已被巧妙地用于在竞争对手的促销或产品介绍之前为消费者备货。

Refunds are generally used to accelerate the normal consumer purchase cycles. Refunds are usually used to increase the quantity or frequency of purchase by encouraging buyers to stock up. Battery manufacturers frequently use refund offers. Such offers have been cleverly used to stock up consumers just before a competitor’s promotion or product introduction.

样品是介绍新产品的一种高成本方式。抽样需要现金投资来生产和储存较小尺寸的包装。样品适用于具有“感官性质”优势且无法通过广告有效传达的产品。对于消费者认为转换为新品牌有风险的产品,或者使用后很可能产生口碑(WOM) 活动的产品,抽样也可能有效。许多新洗发水使用免费或低成本的样品,因为它们的好处是感官上的。消费者不愿意冒着四美元的风险尝试一整瓶。抽样降低了买方试用的风险。

Samples are a high-cost way of introducing a new product. Sampling requires a cash investment to produce and stock the smaller-sized packages. Samples are properly used for products whose benefits are “sensory in nature” and cannot be communicated effectively by advertising. Sampling may also be effective for products that consumers would view as risky in switching to a new brand, or that may have a high probability of generating word of mouth (WOM) activity after use. Many new shampoos use free or low-cost samples since their benefits are sensory. Consumers are reluctant to risk four dollars to try a whole bottle. Sampling reduces the buyer’s risk of trial.

赠品是以低价或免费提供给产品购买者的物品。自清偿保费是那些收取的价格仅涵盖成本的保费。好时公司定期提供手表和圣诞装饰品作为赠品。为了获得糖果,巧克力爱好者必须寄出包装纸作为购买凭证。Bubble 先生,快乐的粉红色泡泡浴男,印在每个盒子上的廉价 T 恤、沙滩巾和运动衫上。

Premiums are items offered at low or no cost to purchasers of a product. Self-liquidating premiums are those for which the price charged covers just costs. Hershey’s has periodically offered watches and Christmas ornaments as premiums. To get the goodies, chocolate lovers have to send in wrappers as proof of purchase. Mr. Bubble, the happy pink bubble-bath man, is pictured on inexpensive T-shirts, beach towels, and sweatshirts that are printed on every box.

竞赛和抽奖是一种很受欢迎的促销活动,也是最受法律限制的,因为它们与赌博接壤。许多比赛都是通过邀请客户到公司网站玩游戏和参加比赛来进行的。必须对游戏规则和法律进行透彻的分析,以避免灾难。必须调查国家赌博法以确保合规。还必须仔细审查游戏规则和获胜几率,以确保促销预算能够支付预测成本。1984 年,麦当劳举办了一场夏季奥运会奖牌赛。每次美国获胜,游戏币都可以兑换免费食物和其他奖品。当共产集团抵制奥运会时,美国赢得了大部分奖牌,大部分棋子成为了赢家。

Contests and sweepstakes are a popular promotion and the most restricted legally, because they border on gambling. Many contests are conducted by inviting customers to corporate Web sites to play a game and enter contests. A thorough analysis of the game rules and the laws must be conducted to avoid a disaster. State gambling laws must be investigated to ensure compliance. The game rules and odds of winning must also be scrutinized to ensure that the promotional budget will cover the forecasted costs. In 1984 McDonald’s ran a summer Olympics medal game. Every time the United States won, game pieces could be redeemed for free food and other prizes. When the Communist bloc boycotted the games, the United States won most of the medals, and most of the game pieces became winners.

以贸易为导向的促销工具包括销售竞赛、购买点展示、经销商奖励、贸易展览和店内演示。

Trade-directed sales promotions tools include sales contests, point-of-purchase displays, dealer incentives, trade shows, and in-store demonstrations.

购买点陈列(POP)有很多变化。要让它们进入商店,需要行业的合作。在零售货架上,POP 可以是货架说话者,即附在货架末端的迷你广告牌,带有用于吸引注意力的小广告。独立式过道展示和内置货架展示是 POP 的其他形式。当显示器位于过道的尽头时,它被称为端盖。为了获得这些顶级运动,制造商必须吸引零售商。营销人员可以通过为每件商品提供高加价或为低利润商品提供高周转率来做到这一点。

There are many variations on the point-of-purchase display (POP). To get them in the stores requires the cooperation of the trade. On the retail shelf a POP can be a shelf talker, a minibillboard attached to the end of the shelf with a little ad used to attract attention. Freestanding aisle displays and built-in shelf displays are other forms of POP. When a display is at the end of an aisle it is referred to as an end cap. To get those prime sports, the manufacturer must entice the retailer. A marketer can do it by providing a high markup per item or a high turnover on lower-margin items.

经销商和员工激励。向经销商支付的营销支持费用称为spiffs。它们可以采取进场费、箱子折扣、现金支付、免费商品或奖品的形式。Spiff 使经销商能够打折、促销或证明携带产品的合理性。制造商还可以激励经销商的员工进行商店展示或奖励实现销售目标的奖品。

Dealer and employee incentives. Payments made to dealers for marketing support are called spiffs. They can take the form of slotting fees, case discounts, cash payments, free merchandise, or prizes. Spiffs enable the dealer to discount, promote, or justify carrying a product. A manufacturer can also give incentives to the dealer’s employees to place store displays or award prizes for meeting sales targets.

贸易展览是向批发商、经销商、零售商和分销商推广新产品或现有产品的一种方式。此促销活动试图鼓励渠道参与者携带您的产品。例如,一家生产家庭用品的新兴公司需要参加贸易展览会,以建立可能将其产品带到零售市场的分销联系方式。如果您没有贸易联系,则必须发展它们。

Trade shows are a way to promote a new or existing product to the wholesalers, dealers, retailers, and distributors. This promotion tries to encourage the channel participants to carry your product. A fledgling start-up company making housewares, for example, would need to attend trade shows to develop the distribution contacts that might carry their products to retail. If you have no trade contacts, you have to develop them.

店内演示。来自制造商的训练有素的专家被广泛用于推广不会引起消费者兴趣或被行业接受的产品。厨房小工具小贩搭建了示范平台,通过用普通蔬菜制作“漂亮”的盘子装饰,让不起眼的刀片栩栩如生。穿着白色工作服的倩碧女士们在化妆品柜台为她们的“自然”美妆盒执行类似的任务。许多零售商使用 DVD 播放器播放录制的演示,而现场演示不实用。

In-store demonstrations. Trained experts from the manufacturer are extensively used to promote products that would not otherwise generate consumer interest or be accepted by the trade. Small kitchen gadget hucksters set up demonstration platforms to bring inconspicuous blades to life by creating “beautiful” plate garnishes with ordinary vegetables. The Clinique ladies in their white smocks perform a similar mission for their boxes of “natural” beauty at the cosmetics counter. Many retailers use a DVD player to play a recorded demonstration when a live one is not practical.

无论您在营销组合中选择哪种促销方式,每个元素都必须有明确的营销使命,以证明其在营销组合中的成本是合理的。

Whatever the sales promotion you choose in a marketing mix, each element must have an explicit marketing mission to justify its cost in the marketing mix.

 

 

公共关系和宣传。公共关系 (PR) 通常是一种促销工具,用于与更广泛的受众进行交流。公关旨在为您的产品创造一个有利的氛围,而不是直接销售它。可能的公关目标列表可以包括政客以及公司运营所在的社区。公关信息可以旨在创造商誉、纠正错误印象或事实情况,或者解释公司的行为。赞助有声望的或慈善活动或事业通常被用来创造对公司及其产品的积极感觉的光环效应。Hallmark Cards 对电视的Hallmark 名人堂的赞助使其自身及其产品与质量、文化和良好公民的属性保持一致。

Public Relations and Publicity. Public relations (PR) is typically a promotional tool used to communicate to a broader audience. PR is intended to create a favorable climate for your product, not to directly sell it. The list of possible PR targets can include politicians as well as the communities in which a company operates. The PR message can be intended to create goodwill, correct a mistaken impression or factual situation, or to explain a firm’s actions. Sponsorship of prestigious or charitable events or causes is often used to create a halo effect of positive feeling toward a corporation and its products. Hallmark Cards’ sponsorship of television’s Hallmark Hall of Fame aligned itself and its products with the attributes of quality, culture, and good citizenship.

因为公关的目标没有销售目标那么明确,所以结果更难衡量。民意调查和立法胜利通常被用来衡量公关成功与否。

Because the goals of PR are less defined than a sales target, the results are more difficult to measure. Opinion polls and legislative victories are often used to measure PR success.

公共关系还包括病毒式营销。通过试图接触意见领袖,营销人员可以在不在电视上投放广告的情况下为其产品造势。在博客、视频博客、播客、YouTube、Facebook“点赞”和 Twitter“推文”上对您的产品进行积极讨论;在组织通讯中;在大学校园里可以推出产品并推动销售。随着 Internet 的出现,病毒式营销可以通过商业网站商店的链接迅速转化为直接可衡量的销售额。

Public relations also include viral marketing. By trying to reach opinion leaders, a marketer can create a buzz about its product without an ad on TV. Generating a positive discussion about your product on blogs, vlogs, podcasts, YouTube, Facebook “likes,” and Twitter “tweets”; in organization newsletters; and on college campuses can launch a product and propel sales. With the advent of the Internet, viral marketing can quickly translate into direct measurable sales via links to commercial Web site stores.

宣传是公共关系的一种形式,是关于公司或产品的任何无偿大众媒体传播形式。它可以采取新闻报道的形式,甚至可以是产品在媒体上的出现。宣传是一把双刃剑。因为不被购买,所以被大众认为更可信;但是,对消息的控制较少。新闻发布会、新闻稿、名人使用和舞台活动被用来吸引媒体的注意力。使用公关机构可以让您利用他们的媒体联系来吸引观众,并有望控制对您的公司或产品的印象。

Publicity, a form of public relations, is any unpaid form of mass media communication about a company or product. It can take the form of a news story or even the appearance of a product in the media. Publicity is a two-edged sword. It is judged as more credible by the public because it is not purchased; however, there is less control over the message. Press conferences, press releases, use by celebrities, and staged events are used to capture the media’s attention. Using a PR agency allows you to tap into their media contacts to capture an audience and hopefully control the impression made about your company or products.

当网球明星罗杰·费德勒或拉斐尔·纳达尔在美国网球公开赛上穿着耐克鞋和运动服时,每当他发球和截击时,电视都会情不自禁地在屏幕上闪现耐克。这个网络时间有很大的价值。如果运动员登上全国晚间新闻或体育画报,每 30 秒的成本分别为 50,000 美元,每页的成本为 320,000 美元,那么免费媒体曝光的价值可能会很大。

When tennis star Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal wears Nike shoes and sportswear at the U.S. Open, the TV can’t help but flash Nike on the screen each time he serves and volleys. This network time has great value. If the athlete makes the national evening news or Sports Illustrated, which cost $50,000 per thirty seconds and $320,000 per page, respectively, the value of free media exposure can be great.

图片

我有信誉,如果价格合适,我可以把它带到这家公司。

I HAVE CREDIBILITY, AND FOR THE RIGHT PRICE I COULD BRING IT TO THIS COMPANY.

 

 

因此,公关主管通过衡量捕获的媒体时间或空间的价值来跟踪其有效性。跟踪服务,例如 Burrelles Luce 的印刷剪报服务,报告其客户在全国的公关和广告媒体曝光率。Burrelle's 也可以用同样的方式追踪竞争对手。尽管它在营销组合中经常被忽视,但如果巧妙和创造性地精心策划,宣传往往会产生巨大的影响。

Accordingly, PR executives track their effectiveness by measuring the value of the media time or space captured. Tracking services, such as Burrelles Luce’s press-clipping service for print, report on their clients’ PR and advertising media exposure across the country. Burrelle’s can also track competitors in the same way. Although it is often overlooked in the marketing mix, publicity can often create a tremendous impact if skillfully and creatively orchestrated.

 

 

直销。直销包括互联网领域、垃圾邮件、产品目录、购物网络和长篇电视广告。直销是大生意。2010 年互联网销售额超过 1650 亿美元,并且还在快速增长。2009 年目录销售额为 1100 亿美元。那一年,超过 8000 家公司邮寄了 200 亿份目录。2010 年,领先的家庭购物网络 QVC Network Inc. 的收入超过 80 亿美元。

Direct Sales. Direct sales includes the realm of the Internet, junk mail, catalogs, shopping networks, and long-format TV infomercials. Direct sales are big business. Internet sales exceeded $165 billion in 2010 and are growing rapidly. In 2009 catalog sales were $110 billion. Over eight thousand firms mailed out 20 billion catalogs that year. In 2010 the leading home shopping network, QVC Network Inc., had over $8 billion in revenues.

直邮游戏的本质是细分、细分、再细分。邮寄者通过有针对性的邮寄列表来瞄准他们的市场,以通过引人注目的邮件直接到达这些家庭。列表可以在内部开发或从 SRDS 的直邮列表费率和数据目录中列出的供应商处购买。列表越明确、越富裕、越专注于所需的人口构成,每千 (CPM) 名称的成本就越高。结果按回报率(ROR) 和每笔订单的美元金额进行跟踪。由于电视观众缺乏列表的选择性,电视推销不能像直邮那样直接针对。

The nature of the direct mail game is to segment, segment, segment. Mailers target their market with a focused mailing list to directly reach those households with a compelling mail piece. Lists can be developed internally or purchased from vendors listed in SRDS’s Direct Mail List Rates and Data directory. The more defined, affluent, and focused the list is on a desired demographic composition, the higher cost per thousand (CPM) names. The results are tracked by rate of return (ROR) and dollar amount per order. Because TV audiences lack a list’s selectivity, TV sales pitches cannot be as directly targeted as direct mail.

网络营销是直接联系客户并获得直接响应的最大且不断增长的方法。2011 年,营销人员在互联网广告上的支出超过 500 亿美元。搜索引擎营销(SEM)Google或Yahoo! 的 Internet Web 搜索引擎上的关键字广告是按每次点击费用(CPC) 购买的。当客户感兴趣时,您可以根据他们的兴趣来选择客户。在竞争性投标过程中,最抢手的词以市场价格定价。因为每次点击成本是明确定义,所以需要仔细计算潜在客户转化为销售额以及由此产生的利润。如果客户具有持续价值,则应考虑终生价值。其他 Internet 营销技术包括搜索引擎优化 (SEO)、横幅广告、弹出窗口、社交媒体广告、短信和电子邮件请求以瞄准您的受众。

Internet marketing is the largest and a growing method of directly contacting the customer and receiving a direct response. In 2011 marketers spent over $50 billion on Internet advertising. Search engine marketing (SEM) or key word advertising on Google’s or Yahoo!’s Internet Web search engines is purchased on a cost-per-click (CPC) basis. You select your customers by their interest when they are interested. In a competitive bidding process, the most sought-after word is priced at a market price. Because the cost-per-click is well defined, the conversion of leads to sales and the resulting profit needs to be carefully calculated. If the customer has a continuing value, the lifetime value should be considered. Other Internet marketing techniques include search engine optimization (SEO), banner ads, pop-ups, social media ads, text messages, and e-mail solicitations to target your audience.

直邮、互联网和电视销售的另一个组成部分是履行。履行是订单输入、订单处理、库存管理、邮寄和客户服务的过程。HSN 和 QVC 的那些观众想要购买收藏娃娃的梦想必须实现。该运营可以在内部执行或分包给履行机构在一定数量的最低限度内履行每笔订单费用的职责。它为较小的公司节省了建立内部履行能力所需的初始投资。由于直销正成为经济的重要组成部分,因此不应忽视它作为一种可能的消费者渠道。与这种销售方法相关的一个棘手问题是对老大哥效应的强烈反对,即在邮寄列表中捕获非常个人化的信息,从而产生个性化的宣传。这个话题和进场费一样,是MBA喋喋不休的“热门”话题。

The other component of both direct mail, Internet, and TV selling is fulfillment. Fulfillment is the process of order entry, order processing, inventory management, mailing, and customer service. The dreams of those viewers of HSN and QVC who want to buy collectible dolls must be fulfilled. The operation may be executed internally or subcontracted out to a fulfillment house that performs the duty for a per-order fee over certain volume minimums. It saves smaller companies the initial investment required to establish in-house fulfillment capabilities. Because direct selling is becoming such a large part of the economy, it should not be ignored as a possible channel to the consumer. A thorny issue connected with this selling method is the backlash against the Big Brother effect of having very personal information captured in mailing lists that churn out personalized pitches. This topic, like slotting fees, is a “hot” one for MBA chatter.

每种促销方法——广告、人员推销、促销、公共关系和直销——都可以完成不同的任务,具体取决于产品、销售地点和价格。有天赋的营销人员会选择他或她的促销选项,并将它们组合成一个协调的促销策略,以有效地销售产品。

Each method of promotion—advertising, personal selling, sales promotions, public relations, and direct selling—can accomplish a separate mission depending on the product, the place of sale, and the price. The gifted marketer goes to his or her palette of promotional options and combines them in a coordinated promotional strategy to sell the product efficiently.

 

 

产品地方促销          

Product          Place          Promotion          Price

 

 

定价决策:我的价格应该是多少?

PRICING DECISIONS: WHAT SHOULD MY PRICE BE?

定价决策与产品决策一样,可以通过建议分销渠道或广告策略来显着影响营销组合。定价本身可以使您的产品在竞争中脱颖而出。起亚和劳斯莱斯在汽车领域的两端都有所不同。为每种产品和服务定价背后有许多基本原理。你没看到一双 Nike cross-trainers 以 59.95 美元而不是 60 美元的价格出售吗?除了心理定价外,研究和案例分析还提出了八种主要的定价方法和策略。

The pricing decision, like the product decisions, can dramatically affect the marketing mix by suggesting a channel of distribution or an advertising strategy. The pricing itself can differentiate your product from the competition. Both the Kia and the Rolls-Royce are differentiated at opposite ends of the automobile spectrum. There are many rationales behind pricing each product and service. Haven’t you seen a pair of Nike cross-trainers for sale at $59.95 instead of $60 for some psychological advantage? Besides psychological pricing, there are eight major pricing methods and strategies suggested by research and case analyses.

 

 

花费增加。这是一种计算成本并增加所需利润率的简单方法。公路承包商经常使用这种简单的方法;但是,这不是正确的定价方式。

Cost Plus. This is a simple method of taking your cost and adding a desired profit margin. Highway contractors often use this simple method; however, it is not the proper way to price.

 

 

消费者的感知价值。您可以向客户收取所提供的价值,而不考虑其成本。更换零件就是一个典型的例子——一个便宜但至关重要的定制螺母或螺栓要价过高。一家夹具制造商的老板在一次学校赞助的工厂参观中向我的一群同学透露,他公司的大部分利润来自 20 x 20 英尺的更换零件笼,而不是来自生产长长的装配线固定装置。如果一件商品的价格与所提供的利益相称,那么在买家心目中就会被认为物有所值。但请记住,即使在垄断情况下也是有限制的。

Perceived Value to the Consumer. You can charge the customer the value provided, regardless of its cost. Replacement parts are a prime example—exorbitant prices are charged for a cheap but crucial custom nut or bolt. The owner of a fixture manufacturer confided to a group of my classmates during a school-sponsored plant visit that the majority of his company’s profits were derived from the twenty-by-twenty-foot replacement-parts cage, not from the long assembly lines producing the fixtures. If the price charged for an item is commensurate with the benefits provided, then it will be considered a good value in the mind of the buyer. But remember, there are limits even in a monopolistic situation.

 

 

略读。在 PLC 引入阶段的早期,公司可以选择从新颖的产品或服务中收取高价和高利润。利润可用于进一步的研发,就像在高科技行业所做的那样,或者立即奖励所有者推出时尚产品。RCA 在 1960 年代推出彩电时就利用这种策略对彩电收取高价,而索尼在 2011 年推出 3D 电视时也采用了这种策略。

Skimming. Early in the introduction phase of the PLC, a company can opt to charge a high price and skin high margins from a new and novel product or service. The margins could be used to further R&D, as is done in high-tech industries, or to immediately reward the owners for fad product introductions. RCA used this strategy to charge high prices for color TVs when they were introduced in the 1960s, and Sony used it in 2011 to introduce 3D TVs.

 

 

渗透。此定价可在介绍阶段或稍后在 PLC 中使用。渗透策略将使用低价来获得市场份额;目标主要是通过生产许多单位来降低单位成本,希望最终以低成本生产者的身份控制市场。

Penetration. This pricing can be used in the introductory phase or later in the PLC. A penetration strategy would use a low price to gain market share; the goal is primarily to lower costs per unit by producing many units in hopes of eventually controlling a market as the low-cost producer.

 

 

价格/质量关系。由于消费者的看法不一定仅基于产品的物理属性,因此“感知”质量通常会受到其价格的影响。服装、香水和珠宝是价格本身影响产品属性感知的示例。消费者往往只是因为标价高,就把款式和做工的特点归于产品。

The Price/Quality Relationship. Because consumer perceptions are not necessarily based on just the physical attributes of a product, the “perceived” quality is often influenced by its price. Apparel, perfume, and jewelry are examples where the price itself affects the perception of product attributes. Consumers often attribute the characteristics of style and workmanship to a product just because of the high price charged.

 

 

满足竞争。战略经常决定匹配或击败竞争对手的价格,以在竞争激烈的市场中获得或保持市场份额。汽油、钢铁和机票等商品和服务尤其如此。正如在分销渠道的讨论中所解释的那样,通过分销链推动产品的经济性对制造商可以收取多少价格来将其产品销售到分销链并最终获得具有竞争力的零售价有很大的影响。

Meet Competition. Strategies frequently decide to match or beat competitors’ prices to gain or retain market share in a competitive market. This is especially the case in commodity products and services such as gasoline, steel, and airline tickets. The economics of pushing a product through the distribution chain, as explained in the discussion of distribution channels, has a great effect on what price a manufacturer can charge to sell his product to the distribution chain and still end up with a competitive retail price.

 

 

根据市场规模实现利润目标。如果市场规模有限,则必须收取足够的利润来证明营销和制造努力的价格。如果产品无法获得有利可图的价格,那么为了降低成本,可以调查其他用户市场或制造改进。

Meet Profit Goals Based on the Size of the Market. If a market is limited in size, then a price must be charged that will allow enough profit to justify the marketing and manufacturing effort. If the product cannot command a profitable price, then to lower costs investigate either other user markets or manufacturing improvements.

 

 

价格基于买方的价格弹性。价格弹性描述了购买者的行为如何因价格变化而变化。具有弹性需求的买家不会轻易接受价格上涨。他们的需求或多或少取决于价格。需求行为缺乏弹性的买家不关心价格上涨。他们不会根据价格减少购买数量或频率。例如,烟草和快克可卡因的吸食者已经吸收了许多价格上涨并继续购买,因为他们的成瘾使他们的需求缺乏弹性。如果有弹性,买家支付的价格不会超过给定的价格点并且会根据他们的欲望强度、他们的个人可支配收入或他们的心理价格阈值停止购买或减少购买。当机票价格低时,它们会鼓励游客旅行。当它们很高时,游客会选择更多的汽车旅行或呆在家里。

Price Based on the Price Elasticity of the Buyer. Price elasticity describes how a buyer’s behavior changes due to a change in price. Buyers with elastic demand do not readily accept price hikes. Their demand is greater or smaller depending on the price. Buyers with inelastic demand behaviors don’t care about price increases. They don’t decrease their quantity or frequency of purchase depending on the price. Tobacco and crack cocaine smokers, for example, have absorbed many price increases and continue to buy because their addiction makes their demand inelastic. If elastic, buyers will not pay more than a given price point and will stop buying or buy much less based on the intensity of their desires, their personal disposable income, or their psychological price thresholds. When airline ticket prices are low, they encourage tourist travel. When they are high, tourists take more car trips or stay at home.

任何给定的产品都可以采用多种途径。以我的精品包装咖啡为例,一种独特的咖啡“产品”可能需要独特的包装、更高的“价格”、有针对性的促销和选择性的分销“地点”。但真正讲故事的是经济学。我能做到并赚钱吗?

Many avenues may be taken with any given product. In the case of my gourmet packaged coffee, a distinctive coffee “product” may require a distinctive package, a higher “price,” a targeted promotion, and a selective “place” for distribution. But what really tells the story is the economics. Can I do it and make money?

 

 

6. 我的计划的经济学原理是什么?

6. WHAT ARE THE ECONOMICS OF MY PLAN?

消费者 → 市场 → 竞争 → 分销 → 营销组合 →确定经济学→ 修改

Consumer → Market → Competition → Distribution → Marketing Mix → Determine the Economics → Revise

这可能是营销分析的最后一步。这一步也可能直接把营销经理送回去,不用收两百块钱。我的意思是,消费者分析可能堪称典范,营销组合也很巧妙,但就是赚不到钱。成本可能太高,市场价格太低。也许需要不切实际的高销量才能实现收支平衡。在那些悲惨的案例中,必须重新启动营销策略的整个循环过程,以努力找到有利可图的解决方案。要确定您制定的计划是否既有利可图又合理,您必须解决几个问题。

This may be the last step of marketing analysis. This step may also send the marketing manager directly back to Go without collecting two hundred dollars. By that I mean that the consumer analysis may be exemplary, the marketing mix masterful, but it just doesn’t make money. The costs may be too high, the market price too low. Perhaps unrealistically high sales volume may be needed to break even. In those sad cases the entire circular process of marketing strategy must be restarted in an effort to find a profitable solution. To determine whether you have created a plan that is both profitable and reasonable, you must address several issues.

 

 

费用是多少?

What are the costs?

什么是收支平衡?

What is the break even?

我的投资多久能收回投资?

How long is the payback of my investment?

 

 

我的费用是多少?固定还是可变?

What are my costs? Fixed or variable?

营销经理的第一个成本问题应该是,“我的哪些成本是可变的,哪些是固定的?” 如果这听起来像会计,那就是。

The first cost question for a marketing manager should be, “Which of my costs are variable and which are fixed?” If this sounds like accounting, it is.

可变成本是指随销售或制造的产品数量而变化的成本。材料成本和人工成本是可变成本。随着销售或制造的单位越多,材料和人工的总成本就越高。即使没有销售,固定成本也不会随数量变化。随着数量的波动,租金和主管的薪水都不会在相关范围内发生变化。我的意思是,如果销售额增加三倍,可能需要租用新工厂,因此固定成本会上升。广告等促销费用也被视为营销计划的固定成本,因为如果产品失败,广告费就已经花光了。它们被认为是沉没成本— 电视广告播出后,美元就“沉没”在电视土地的海洋中。总成本是可变成本和固定成本的组合。

Variable costs are those that vary with the volume of products sold or manufactured. The costs of materials and labor are variable costs. As more units are sold or manufactured, the total costs of material and labor are higher. Fixed costs do not vary with volume even if no sales are made. As volume fluctuates neither rent nor supervisor salaries change—within a relevant range. By that I mean that if sales triple, a new factory may have to be leased, and thus fixed costs will go up. Promotional expenses such as advertising are also seen as a fixed cost of a marketing plan, because if the product is a flop, the advertising dollars are already spent. They are considered sunk costs—after a TV ad airs, the dollars are “sunk” in the ocean of TV land. Total costs are a combination of both variable and fixed costs.

 

 

总成本=每单位可变成本 (VC) ×销售量+固定成本 (FC)

Total Costs = Variable Costs Per Unit (VC) × Units Sold + Fixed Costs (FC)

它们也可以如下图所示。

They can also be shown graphically as below.

从图中可以看出,无论单位体积如何,固定成本都保持不变。当实际生产单位时,可变成本被添加到固定成本之上以等于总成本。

What can be seen in the graphs is that regardless of unit volume, the fixed costs remain constant. When units are actually produced, variable costs are added on top of the fixed costs to equal total costs.

 

 

我的收支平衡是多少,合理吗?

What is my break even and is it reasonable?

盈亏平衡点是指从商品销售中收回固定成本但未获利的点。推广和制造是昂贵的。必须找到一种方法来收回这些投资。这就是营销的全部要点:收回成本并赚取利润。

Break even is the point at which the fixed costs are recovered from the sale of goods but no profit is made. Promotion and manufacturing are expensive. A way must be found to recoup those investments. That’s the whole point of marketing: to recover costs and make profits.

图片

使用我在咖啡行业的数据,我提供了一个真实世界的例子。我确定墨西哥美味咖啡的拟议营销计划的价格和成本是:

Using my data from the coffee industry, I have provided an example from the real world. I determined that the prices and costs of a proposed marketing plan for the Mexican gourmet coffee were:

木制茶几生产

WOODEN END TABLE PRODUCTION

图片

零售价

Retail Sales Price

成本:6.00 美元磅。

COST: $6.00 lb.

 

 

向分销商销售价格

Selling Price to Distributors

成本:4.20 美元磅。

COST: $4.20 lb.

 

 

咖啡豆成本

Coffee Beans Cost

成本:1.00 美元磅。

COST: $1.00 lb.

成本类型:变量

COST TYPE: Variable

 

 

烘焙和加工成本

Roasting and Processing Cost

成本:0.44 美元磅

COST: $.44 lb.

成本类型:变量

COST TYPE: Variable

 

 

包装成本

Packaging Cost

成本:0.55 美元磅

COST: $.55 lb.

成本类型:变量

COST TYPE: Variable

 

 

运输费

Shipping Cost

成本:0.25 美元磅

COST: $.25 lb.

成本类型:变量

COST TYPE: Variable

 

 

Spiffs 和进场费

Spiffs and Slotting Fees

成本:50,000 美元

COST: $50,000

成本类型:固定

COST TYPE: Fixed

 

 

生产设备租赁

Production Equipment Rental

成本:12,000 美元

COST: $12,000

成本类型:固定

COST TYPE: Fixed

 

 

促销活动

Promotional Efforts

成本:150,000 美元

COST: $150,000

成本类型:固定

COST TYPE: Fixed

 

 

固定成本+可变成本=总成本

FIXED COSTS + VARIABLE COSTS = TOTAL COSTS

图片

计算相应的盈亏平衡量:

The corresponding break-even volume was calculated:

图片

收支平衡的美元销售额是:

And the break-even dollar sales were:

 

 

108,163 磅。× 6.00 美元磅= 648,978 美元的盈亏平衡零售额

108,163 lbs. × $6.00 lb. = $648,978 break-even retail sales

相同的方程式可用于计算目标量以产生所需的利润。

The same equation can be used to calculate a target volume to yield a desired profit.

图片

要返回 30,000 美元的利润目标,您只需将利润与固定成本一起添加到分子中。

To return a $30,000 profit target, you just add the profit to the numerator with the fixed costs.

图片

这一分析的一个非常重要的方面是它不包括在产品开发或广告活动中“沉没”的成本,如果它们已经花费的话。经济学的评价总是从当下的角度来进行的。不应该为打翻的牛奶哭泣。您需要决定未来是否可以从拟议的营销支出中获利。例如,如果混合咖啡是数百万美元研究的产物,那么这与我是否应该花额外的钱来推销它的决定无关。如果我包括数百万项研究,那将是一个明确的“不行”。然而,随着这笔钱的流失,将额外的现金投入营销工作可能会有利可图。

One very important aspect of this analysis is that it does not include the costs that were “sunk” in the development of the product or the ad campaign if they have already been spent. The evaluation of the economics is always performed from the perspective of the present. There should not be any crying over spilled milk. You need to decide if you can make money on the proposed marketing spending in the future. For example, if the coffee blend was the product of millions of dollars of research, that would be irrelevant to the decision of whether I should spend additional money to market it. If I include the millions of research, it would be a definite “no go.” However, with that money down the drain, it might be profitable to invest additional cash in a marketing effort.

墨西哥咖啡的营销计划经济学图形表示如下:

The graphical representation of the marketing plan economics for the Mexican coffee looked like this:

极品咖啡营销计划经济学

GOURMET COFFEE MARKETING PLAN ECONOMICS

图片

相对于我的相关市场,我的收支平衡是否合理?回答这个问题必须是你的下一步。在咖啡示例中,648,978 美元的盈亏平衡零售额占通过超市渠道销售的 2.48 亿美元美味无味咖啡市场的 0.26%,如本章前面所述。目标零售额为 740,814 美元,仅占相关市场份额的 0.3%。在那个层面上,如果我相信 150,000 美元的促销和 50,000 美元的经销商奖励可以产生 740,814 美元的销售额,那么该计划似乎是合理的。想象一下——我本可以在市场份额仅为 0.3% 的情况下实现我的目标!

Is my break even reasonable in relation to my relevant market? Answering this question must be your next step. In the coffee example, $648,978 of break-even retail sales was a .26 percent share of the $248 million market for gourmet, nonflavored coffee sold through the supermarket channel as explained earlier in the chapter. The targeted retail sales of $740,814 equaled only a .3 percent share of the relevant market. On that level, the plan appeared reasonable if I believed $150,000 of promotion and $50,000 of dealer incentives could have produced $740,814 in sales. Imagine that—I could have reached my goal with only a .3 percent share of the market!

不幸的是,一个小的目标份额很容易让你相信它很容易获得。杂货店货架争夺战有多激烈?如果我的咖啡上架,其他人的咖啡就得被踢掉。他们会有什么反应?一旦进入超市,当竞争对手争夺我的货架空间时,我的公司是否愿意继续支持咖啡?就我而言,公司还不愿意对咖啡做出那种长期承诺。

Unfortunately, a small target share can easily lead you to believe that it is easy to obtain. How fierce was the fight for the grocer’s shelf? If my coffee got on the shelf, somebody else’s had to be kicked off. How would they react? Once in the supermarket, would my company have been willing to continue to support the coffee when a competitor went after my shelf space? In my case, the company was not willing yet to make that kind of long-term commitment to coffee.

 

 

我的投资回收期是多久?

What is the payback period on my investment?

这是公司在有很多选择时经常用来评估营销项目的另一个障碍。公司想知道收回投资需要多长时间。忘记利润。回报公式为:

This is another hurdle frequently used by companies to evaluate marketing projects when they have many to choose from. Companies want to know how long it will take just to get their investment back. Forget about profit. The payback formula is:

图片

在咖啡示例中,计算将是:

In the coffee example, the calculation would be:

图片

如果每年的年利润不一样,就没有公式。收支平衡点是计划返还初始投资的地方。

If the yearly profit is not the same each year, there is no formula. The break-even point is where the plan returns the initial investment.

七年对于风险投资来说有点长。这可能预示着整个营销开发过程又要重新开始了。不幸的是,对我来说确实如此。

Seven years is a bit long for a risky venture. This may indicate that the whole marketing development process should start again. And unfortunately for me it did.

 

 

7. 回去修改计划

7. GO BACK AND REVISE THE PLAN

消费者 → 市场 → 竞争 → 分销 → 营销组合 → 经济学 →修改计划

Consumer → Market → Competition → Distribution → Marketing Mix → Economics → Revise the Plan

在这个失望的阶段,我重新审视了本章开头概述的营销策略制定过程。在我遇到的情况下,你必须调整或完全放弃你的计划。你可能有一些可以挽救的东西。. . 如果你幸运的话。你必须首先问自己一些尖锐的问题。在咖啡项目的案例中,我折磨自己:

At this stage of disappointment, I revisited the marketing strategy development process outlined at the beginning of this chapter. In circumstances such as those I faced, you must either tweak or discard your plans entirely. You may have something that can be salvaged . . . if you’re lucky. You have to start by asking yourself tough questions. In the case of the coffee project I tormented myself with:

 

 

我应该瞄准另一个细分市场吗?

Should I target another segment?

邮购分销渠道是一种选择吗?

Is the mail order distribution channel an option?

我是不是应该不做广告,靠便宜的价格来带动我的产品?

Should I not advertise and rely on a cheap price to move my product?

 

 

正如这些问题所表明的,营销过程不容易定义或执行。这可能会令人沮丧,因为没有“正确”的答案。消费者的反应不容易预测。需要创造力、经验、技能和直觉来制定一个有意义的、共同努力的计划(内部一致和相互支持)。营销还需要密切关注数字才能取得成功。通过本章,您将掌握 MBA 问题解决结构和 MBA 词汇,以应对您可能遇到的营销挑战。你甚至还没有支付一美元的学费,没有听完一堂课,也没有为昂贵的高管研讨会做好准备。算出这笔投资的收支平衡!

As these questions indicate, the marketing process is not easily defined or executed. It can be frustrating because there are no “right” answers. Consumer reactions cannot easily be predicted. It takes creativity, experience, skill, and intuition to develop a plan that makes sense and works together (internally consistent and mutually supportive). Marketing also requires close attention to the numbers to be successful. With this chapter you are armed with the MBA problem-solving structure and the MBA vocabulary to attack the marketing challenges that you may encounter. You haven’t even paid a dollar in tuition, sat through a class, or anted up for an expensive executive seminar. Figure the break even on that investment!

 

 

我包括以下我们在学校相互传递的笔记,以指导我们的案例讨论和测试(开放笔记)。这些是综合营销策略必须解决的关键问题。

I include the following notes that we all passed among ourselves at school to guide our case discussions and tests (open notes). These are the key questions that must be addressed by a comprehensive marketing strategy.

 

 

营销策略大纲

MARKETING STRATEGY OUTLINE

 

 

一、消费者分析

1. Consumer Analysis

  • 可制造或适销对路的产品?
  • Makable or marketable product?
  • 谁在购买,谁在使用?
  • Who’s buying, who’s using?
  • 购买流程是怎样的?
  • What is the buying process?
  • 谁是“影响者”?
  • Who are the “influencers”?
  • 它对消费者有多重要?
  • How important is it to the consumer?
  • 谁需要它,为什么?
  • Who needs it and why?
  • 对最终用户有什么价值?
  • What is the value to the end user?
  • 是计划购买还是冲动购买?
  • Is it a planned or impulse buy?
  • 对我们产品的看法是什么?
  • What are the perceptions of our product?
  • 是否满足他们的需求?
  • Does it meet their needs?

 

 

2.市场分析

2. Market Analysis

  • 市场的本质是什么?规模、增长、细分市场、地域、PLC
  • What is the market’s nature? Size, growth, segments, geography, PLC
  • 竞争因素?质量、价格、广告、研发、服务
  • Competitive factors? Quality, price, advertising, R&D, service
  • 趋势是什么?
  • What are the trends?

 

 

3.竞争分析

3. Competitive Analysis

  • 你的公司擅长什么?穷于?
  • What is your company good at? Poor at?
  • 你在市场上的地位如何?规模、份额、声誉、历史业绩
  • What is your position in the market? Size, share, reputation, historical performance
  • 你有什么资源?贸易关系、销售队伍、现金、技术、专利、研发
  • What are your resources? Trade relations, sales force, cash, technology, patents, R&D
  • 谁在获得或失去份额?
  • Who is gaining or losing share?
  • 他们擅长什么?
  • What do they do well?
  • 将您的资源与他们的进行比较。
  • Compare your resources to theirs.
  • 进入壁垒是什么?
  • What are the barriers to entry?
  • 你的目标和策略是什么?
  • What are your objectives and strategy?
  • 有什么应急计划吗?
  • Any contingency plans?
  • 短期和长期的计划和目标?
  • Short- and long-term plans and goals?

 

 

4.营销组合

4. Marketing Mix

  • 谁是目标?
  • Who is the target?
  • 产品——适合其他产品吗?差异化、PLC、感知、封装、特性
  • Product—Fit with other products? Differentiation, PLC, perception, packaging, features
  • 地点——如何最好地到达细分市场?通道数学,绘制通道
  • Place—How best to reach segment? Channel mathematics, draw channels
  • 排他性、选择性、集约化分销?适合产品?
  • Exclusive, selective, intensive distribution? Fit with product?
  • 谁有权力?
  • Who has the power?
  • 如何激励渠道?
  • How to motivate the channels?
  • 促销——购买过程是怎样的?$ 如何针对购买过程目标?
  • Promotion—What is the buying process? How are $’s targeted to buying-process goals?
  • 推还是拉策略?
  • Push or pull strategy?
  • 媒体——类型、尺度、信息?
  • Media—type, measure, message?
  • 经销商激励?
  • Dealer incentives?
  • 消费者促销——优惠券、竞赛?
  • Consumer promos—coupons, contests?
  • 价格——什么策略?掠过,穿透?
  • Price—What strategy? Skim, penetrate?
  • 追求销量还是利润?
  • Seek volume or profits?
  • 感知价值、成本加成定价?
  • Perceived value, cost-plus pricing?
  • 价格与市场、规模、产品生命周期、竞争有何关系?
  • How does price relate to the market, size, product life cycle, competition?

 

 

5.评估经济学

5. Evaluate the Economics

  • 以单位收支平衡。
  • Break even in units.
  • 固定成本/(销售—可变成本)。在计划的固定成本中包括固定营销和促销成本!
  • Fixed Cost/(Selling—Variable Cost). Include fixed marketing and promo costs in fixed costs of the plan!
  • 将收支平衡与相关市场联系起来。
  • Relate break even to relevant market.
  • 什么是投资回收期?排除沉没成本!
  • What is the payback period? Exclude sunk costs!
  • 目标是否合理?可以达到吗?
  • Are goals reasonable? Attainable?

 

 

关键营销要点

KEY MARKETING TAKEAWAYS

市场战略制定的 7 个步骤

The 7 Steps of Market Strategy Development

1.消费者分析

1. Consumer analysis

2、市场分析

2. Market analysis

3.竞品分析

3. Competitive analysis

4. 分销渠道分析

4. Distribution channel analysis

5. 开发营销组合

5. Develop the marketing mix

6.确定经济性

6. Determine the economics

7.修改

7. Revise

 

 

需求类别——产品或服务的所有可能用途

Need Categories—All the possible uses of a product or service

购买过程——购买的各个阶段

The Buying Process—The stages of making a purchase

产品参与度——产品对消费者的重要性

Product Involvement—The importance of a product to the consumer

细分变量——划分人群以找到有利可图的目标的方法

Segmentation Variables—Ways to divide the population to find a profitable target

相关市场——对您的产品感兴趣的市场部分

Relevant Market—The portion of the market that is interested in your product

产品生命周期——产品从出生到死亡(可能还有重生)的生命周期

Product Life Cycle—The birth-to-death (and possibly rebirth) life cycle of a product

SWOT分析——优势、劣势、机会和威胁的竞争分析

SWOT Analysis—Competitive analysis of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats

感知映射——产品及其竞争对手的多变量图片

Perceptual Mapping—A multivariable picture of a product and its competitors

Channel Margin Mathematics——分销中的每个级别都从它收取的销售价格中抽取利润,用于下一个分销级别

Channel Margin Mathematics—Each level in the distribution takes a margin of the selling price it charges to the next level of distribution

4P 的营销组合——产品、地点、促销和价格

The Marketing Mix of the 4 P’s—Product, place, promotion, and price

分销策略——独家、选择性和大众市场

Distribution Strategies—Exclusive, selective, and mass market

渠道力量——分销链中的谁决定关系的条款

Channel Power—Who in the distribution chain dictates the terms of the relationships

广告措施——覆盖面、频率、GRP、TRP、占有率。明智地购买。

Advertising Measures—Reach, frequency, GRP, TRP, share of voice. Buy wisely.

定价策略——成本加成、渗透、价值定价、略读法

Pricing Strategies—Cost plus, penetration, value pricing, skimming

收支平衡——收回营销计划固定成本所需的销售额

Break Evens—The volume of sales needed to recover the fixed cost of marketing plan

第 2 天

Day 2

伦理

ETHICS

道德话题

Ethics Topics

相对主义

Relativism

利益相关者分析

Stakeholder Analysis

MBA课程中的大多数主题几十年来一直保持一致,与此不同的是,伦理学是一个新领域。起初看起来只是一门时髦的选修课,现在已经制度化为哈佛、沃顿和达顿商学院核心 MBA 课程的一部分。随着 1980 年代内幕交易者的刑事定罪,商学院注意到并在 1990 年代加入了道德潮流。新世纪,安然、世通、安达信倒闭;伯尼麦道夫的庞氏骗局;次级抵押贷款欺诈;会计欺诈的揭露使道德问题成为关注的焦点。

Unlike most topics in the MBA curriculum, which have remained fairly consistent for decades, ethics is a new area. What appeared at first to be only a trendy elective course has now become institutionalized as part of the core MBA curriculum at Harvard, Wharton, and Darden. With the criminal convictions of insider traders in the 1980s, business schools took notice and jumped on the ethics bandwagon in the 1990s. In the new century, the collapses of Enron, WorldCom, and Arthur Andersen; Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme; the subprime mortgage frauds; and the revelations of accounting fraud have kept ethics on the front burner.

道德困境引发了生动的课堂讨论。看到我的同学们处理有争议的话题是很有启发性的。我的“政治上精明”的同学们会谨慎行事,在老师和同龄人面前占据道德制高点。我那些没有安全感的同学根本不会参加。其他人只会表达他们的想法,无论这听起来在政治上多么“不正确”。我属于最后一组。但我必须承认,我采取了许多不受欢迎的立场只是为了活跃课堂讨论。无论如何,道德是演讲者论坛的一个好话题,也是文章和论文的重要素材。由于伦理问题通常没有明确的答案,因此该领域在未来几年仍将是一片沃土。

Ethical dilemmas make for a lively classroom discussion. It was revealing to see my fellow students deal with controversial topics. My “politically astute” classmates would play it safe and take the ethical high ground before teachers and peers. My more insecure classmates would not participate at all. Others would express just what they thought, no matter how politically “incorrect” it may have sounded. I fell into this last group. But I must admit, I took many unpopular positions just to liven up the class discussion. In any case, ethics is a good topic for speaker forums and great fodder for articles and dissertations. Since ethical problems often have no definitive answers, the area will remain fertile academic ground for years to come.

图片

好吧,讨论显然已经转向了基本的商业道德,我必须承认我已经超出了我的理解范围。

WELL, THE DISCUSSION HAS APPARENTLY TURNED TO BASIC BUSINESS ETHICS, AND I MUST CONFESS TO BEING OUT OF MY DEPTH.

 

 

MBA 课程中道德规范的目的不是要让学生成为企业公民的模范。相反,目的是让学生了解商业决策的道德含义。通过个案工作和角色扮演,学生将面临与他们在工作场所将面临的道德困境相似的道德困境。

The purpose of ethics in the MBA curriculum is not to make students model corporate citizens. Rather, the intention is to make students aware of the ethical implications of business decisions. Through casework and role-playing, students confront ethical dilemmas similar to those they will face in the workplace.

顶级商学院培养未来的行业冠军以应对任何挑战。你说出“热门”话题,我们在课堂上讨论了这个问题:

The top business schools train their future champions of industry to deal with any challenge. You name the “hot” topic, we thrashed out the issue in class:

 

 

环境问题——污染、有毒废物倾倒、动物权利

Environmental issues—pollution, toxic waste dumping, animal rights

企业重组——裁员

Corporate restructuring—layoffs

员工隐私问题——艾滋病、药物检测

Employee privacy issues—AIDS, drug testing

“多样性”问题——种族、民族、性别和性取向

“Diversity” issues—race, ethnicity, gender, and sexual orientation

性骚扰

Sexual harassment

跨国公司 (MNC) 的行为——贿赂

Conduct of multinational corporations (MNCs)—bribery

其他——反垄断行动、掠夺性定价、内幕交易

Other—antitrust actions, predatory pricing, insider trading

 

 

企业的社会责任

THE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY OF BUSINESS

谈论道德是基于这样的假设,即企业应该坚持一种对社会负责的决策方法,称为社会责任方法。这种方法的支持者认为,公司的社会义务不仅仅是利润最大化。商学院鼓励学生采用这种“政治正确”的理念。有人认为,由于企业如此强大,他们有义务承担社会责任。公司的管理应使其利益相关者受益:他们的客户、供应商、员工和当地社区,以及他们的所有者。公司领导人对所有利益相关者负有信托责任。

Talk about ethics rests on the assumption that businesses ought to adhere to a socially responsible approach to decision making called the social responsibility approach. Proponents of this approach believe that corporations have societal obligations that go beyond maximizing profits. Business schools encourage students to adopt this “politically correct” philosophy. It is argued that because corporations are so powerful, they have an obligation to assume social responsibilities. Corporations should be managed for the benefit of their stakeholders: their customers, suppliers, employees, and local communities, as well as their owners. Corporate leaders bear a fiduciary responsibility to all stakeholders.

芝加哥大学的米尔顿·弗里德曼 (Milton Friedman) 领导的一个竞争学派与大多数机构所拥护的“政治正确”哲学背道而驰。弗里德曼认为,企业的唯一职责是盈利。“只要企业的活动在法律条文范围内,企业就是通过审慎使用稀缺的组织资源来实现股东价值最大化。” 在弗里德曼看来,应该由政府来决定法律应该是什么。有利可图的企业通过创造就业机会、提高其所有者和员工的生活水平来造福社会。公司缴纳支持政府社会行动的税款。尽管弗里德曼在经济学课程中被尊为资本主义的捍卫者之一,

Flying in the face of the “politically correct” philosophy espoused at most institutions is a competing school of thought led by Milton Friedman of the University of Chicago. Friedman believes that business’s sole duty is to make profits. “Businesses are in the business of maximizing shareholders’ value by a prudent use of scarce organizational resources, as long as the activities of the business are within the letter of the law.” In Friedman’s view, it is up to government to determine what the laws should be. A profitable business benefits society by creating jobs, increasing the standard of living of its owners and its employees. Corporations pay the taxes that support government’s social action. Although Friedman is exalted as one of the defenders of capitalism in economics courses, my school tended to discourage his views when it came to ethics class.

道德课程教授两个主要主题:相对主义利益相关者分析。相对主义研究了为什么我们在决策中经常忽视道德,而利益相关者分析提供了一个结构来面对道德决策。

Two major topics are taught in the ethics curriculum: relativism and stakeholder analysis. Relativism examines why we often ignore ethics in our decision making, while stakeholder analysis provides a structure with which to confront ethical decisions.

 

 

相对主义

RELATIVISM

相对主义的支持者认为,我们无法决定是非、善恶。事情很少是非黑即白的。有很多灰色阴影。相对主义提出,道德与一个人所处的个人、社会和文化环境“相关”。相对主义者不会被道德困境所左右,因为他们不相信可以通过反省来发现真理。教授们教授相对主义,以便学生可以防备它。要理解相对主义,您需要认识它的四种形式:

The proponents of relativism hold that we can’t decide on matters of right and wrong, or good and evil. Things are rarely black or white. There are so many shades of gray. Relativism proposes that ethics are “relative” to the personal, social, and cultural circumstances in which one finds oneself. Relativists are not torn by ethical dilemmas since they do not believe that truth can be discovered through soul-searching. Professors teach relativism so that students may guard against it. To understand relativism, you need to recognize its four forms:

 

 

朴素相对主义

Naive Relativism

角色相对主义

Role Relativism

社会群体相对论

Social Group Relativism

文化相对主义

Cultural Relativism

 

 

朴素相对主义认为,每个人都有自己的标准,使他或她能够做出选择。没有人可以对另一个人的行为做出道德判断。影响行为的变量如此之多,以至于局外人不可能了解做出决定的所有因素。因此,Similac 的一位高管没有能力对雀巢首席执行官 (CEO) 的行为做出道德判断,雀巢公司被指控可能在发展中国家销售有害婴儿配方奶粉。

Naive relativism holds that every person has his or her own standard that enables him or her to make choices. No one can make a moral judgment about another person’s behavior. So many variables affect behavior that an outsider cannot possibly be privy to all the elements that went into making a decision. Therefore, an executive at Similac is not equipped to make a moral judgment regarding the actions of the chief executive officer (CEO) of Nestlé, whose corporation was accused of possibly selling harmful baby formula in developing countries.

角色相对主义区分了我们的私人自我和我们的公共角色。这些公共角色需要一种“特殊”道德,我们将其与做出选择的个人区分开来。一家渔业公司的总裁可能个人不喜欢在其公司的金枪鱼网中意外杀死海豚,但作为一名高管,他绝不能让自己的感情干扰公司的最大利益。

Role relativism distinguishes between our private selves and our public roles. These public roles call for a “special” morality that we separate from the individual making the choices. The president of a fishing company may personally dislike the incidental killing of dolphins in his company’s tuna nets, but as an executive, he must not let his feelings interfere with the best interests of the company.

社会相对主义类似于朴素相对主义。人们参考社会规范来做出道德判断。“行业惯例”、“俱乐部规则”、“职业行为准则”和“公认的惯例”是社会相对主义者的逃避。在农产品行业,无视童工法并雇用年幼的儿童在田间工作和逃学是“行业惯例”。

Social relativism is akin to naive relativism. People refer to social norms to render ethical judgments. “Industry practices,” “club rules,” “professional codes of conduct,” and “accepted practices” are the cop-outs of the social relativist. In the produce industry, it is “industry practice” to ignore child labor laws and employ small children to work in the field and miss school.

文化相对主义认为,没有普遍的道德准则可以用来判断另一个社会的道德和伦理标准。如果整个文化都持有某些信念,局外人怎么能做出判断?“在罗马的时候 。. ” 随着公司在全球范围内竞争,文化相对主义的概念变得更加重要。跨国公司通常会遵守可能违反本国道德标准的当地法律和习俗。关于种族隔离的讨论围绕着文化相对主义问题展开。采用文化相对主义哲学,一家跨国公司可能会证明其参与南非黄金和钻石开采活动是正当的,尽管在矿山中雇用了“奴隶”劳工。

Cultural relativism holds that there is no universal moral code by which to judge another society’s moral and ethical standards. If a whole culture holds certain beliefs, how can an outsider sit in judgment? “When in Rome . . .” The concept of cultural relativism becomes more important as companies compete globally. Multinational corporations often follow local laws and customs that may violate ethical standards in their home countries. Discussions about apartheid revolved around issues of cultural relativism. Adopting a cultural relativist philosophy, a multinational corporation might have justified its participation in South African gold and diamond mining activities despite the employment of “slave” labor in the mines.

在某些情况下,美国公司和公民被禁止采用东道国的商业惯例。在某些国家/地区,行贿以获得企业和政府的优待是常见的商业惯例。1977 年的《反海外腐败法》禁止海外贿赂。

In some instances U.S. corporations and citizens are barred from adopting the host country’s business practices. In some countries it is ordinary business practice to pay bribes to get favorable treatment from businesses and government. The Foreign Corrupt Practices Act of 1977 outlaws overseas bribery.

相对主义概念为 MBA 提供了一种意识和一种方法来防止在伦理和道德问题上不采取行动。它们提供了一个超越当前持有的信念和行为模式的框架。当 MBA 在社交场合聚会时,这些概念也是很好的对话弹药。

The relativism concepts provide MBAs with an awareness of and a way to guard against inaction on ethical and moral issues. They provide a framework to go beyond currently held beliefs and patterns of behaviors. These concepts are also great conversational ammunition when MBAs get together on social occasions.

 

 

其他道德框架。相对主义并不是处理伦理决策的唯一哲学框架。还有自然法则、功利主义普遍主义。自然法则为一些相信“正确”的事情在自然界或圣经中有所启示的人提供了指南。功利主义认为,如果一项行动能为最多的人带来最大的利益,那么该行动就是正当的。最后,普遍主义主张,如果行为背后的动机是好的,任何行为都是可以宽恕的,因为一个人行为的结果往往不在他或她的控制之下。

Other Ethical Frameworks. Relativism is not the only philosophical framework with which to approach ethical decisions. There is also natural law, utilitarianism, and universalism. Natural law serves as a guide to some who believe that the “right” thing to do is revealed in nature or the Bible. Utilitarianism holds that an action is justified if it provides the greatest benefit for the greatest number of people. Finally, universalism propounds that any action is condonable if the motive behind the action is good, since the results of a person’s actions are so often not in his or her control.

 

 

利益相关者分析

STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS

虽然没有解决道德困境的神奇公式,但有一个框架来组织你的想法是有帮助的。利益相关者分析为您提供了权衡各种因素和做出决定的工具。

Although there are no magic formulas for solving ethical dilemmas, it is helpful to have a framework with which to organize your thoughts. Stakeholder analysis provides you with the tools for weighing various elements and reaching a decision.

作为第一步,应该列出所有可能受影响的各方,然后评估特定行动将对相关方产生的所有危害好处。下一级分析应该确定每个受影响方的权利责任。例如,员工有权获得公平的工资和安全的工作条件,但他们也有责任为公司提高生产力。在典型的利益相关者分析中,潜在受影响方的列表可能如下所示:

As a first step a list should be made of all potentially affected parties, then an evaluation of all the harms and benefits that a particular action will have on those involved. The next level of analysis ought to determine each of the affected parties’ rights and responsibilities. Employees, for instance, have the right to a fair wage and safe working conditions, but they also have the responsibility to be productive for the company. In a typical stakeholder analysis the list of potentially affected parties might look like this:

 

 

决策者

The Decision Maker

执行官、董事会

Executives, Board of Directors

客户——以及他们所在的行业

Customers—and the industry in which they operate

股东、债券持有人

Shareholders, Bondholders

供应商——及其行业

Suppliers—and their industry

员工——及其家人

Employees—and their families

政府——联邦、州和地方及其机构

Government—federal, state, and local and their agencies

特殊利益集团——工业、消费者、环境、政治、工会

Special Interest Groups—industrial, consumer, environmental, political, unions

受影响的社区

The Affected Community

环境——“可持续性”——植物、动物、自然资源

The Environment—“sustainability”—plants, animals, natural resources

Future Generations(MBA 的最爱)

Future Generations (an MBA favorite)

参赛者

Competitors

律师和法院

Lawyers and the Courts

 

 

显然,该列表可能会更长。在分析阶段,将名单缩小到重要参与者,然后进行情况分析,最终做出决定。按顺序,这些是步骤:

Obviously, the list could be much longer. At the analysis stage the list is narrowed to the significant players, then a situational analysis is performed, and eventually a decision is reached. In order, these are the steps:

 

 

1.获取主要角色。

1. Get the main cast of characters.

2. 确定对每个玩家的伤害和好处。

2. Determine the harms and benefits to each player.

3. 确定他们的权利和责任。

3. Determine their rights and responsibilities.

4. 考虑每个人的相对力量。

4. Consider the relative power of each.

5. 考虑您的决策备选方案的短期和长期后果。

5. Consider the short- and long-term consequences of your decision alternatives.

6. 制定备选方案的应急计划。

6. Formulate contingency plans for alternative scenarios.

7. 做出判断。

7. Make a judgment.

如果您有兴趣完成上述步骤,请拿出一份最新的《时代》杂志或浏览谷歌新闻,然后选择一个具有道德方面的话题。用一张纸,在顶部记下主要人物,然后在旁边写上“危害和好处”,然后在“权利和责任”下方。现在你有了解决当今道德困境的框架——MBA 风格。

If you are interested in walking through the steps outlined above, take out a recent copy of Time or browse Google News and pick a topic with an ethical aspect. With a piece of paper, jot down the main characters along the top, then along the side, place the words “Harms and Benefits” first, and below that “Rights and Responsibilities.” Now you have the framework with which to attack the moral dilemmas of the day—MBA style.

例如,您可以选择关于通过减少联邦土地上的伐木来保护斑点猫头鹰栖息地的必要性的辩论。利益相关者分析网格如下所示。

As an example, you might choose the debate regarding the need to preserve the habitat of the spotted owl by reducing logging on federal lands. The stakeholder analysis grid would look like that below.

你可能不同意我构建这个问题的方式,但在道德方面没有“正确”的方式。人们可以以不同的方式处理情况,并认为需要代表其他利益相关者。在这种情况下,木材公司的高管至少应该在砍伐猫头鹰林之前考虑利益相关者。借助利益相关者分析工具,MBA 可以解决濒临灭绝的猫头鹰问题以及其他道德问题,并做出深思熟虑和明智的决定。公司通常会进行自己的利益相关者分析,并将其作为企业社会责任 (CSR) 报告发布。

You may disagree with the way in which I have framed this issue, but with ethics there is no “right” way. People can approach a situation differently and feel other stakeholders need to be represented. In this situation, at the very least, a timber company executive ought to consider the stakeholders before clear-cutting the owls’ woods. With the tools of stakeholder analysis an MBA can tackle the issue of endangered owls as well as other ethical issues and make thoughtful and informed decisions. Corporations often do their own stakeholder analyses and publish them as corporate social responsibility (CSR) reports.

利益相关者框架中的斑点猫头鹰问题

SPOTTED OWL ISSUE IN A STAKEHOLDER FRAMEWORK

图片

 

 

2002 年萨班斯-奥克斯利法案

THE SARBANES-OXLEY ACT OF 2002

由于 1990 年代末和 2000 年代初的企业丑闻,国会被迫对美国企业的道德规范进行立法。政府监管和私人自我监管的体系不完善。耻辱殿堂包括泰科、施乐、Qwest、新光、世通、Adelphia、安然、环球电讯、HealthSouth、ImClone 和瑞士信贷第一波士顿,以及安达信。其他国际丑闻主要集中在流氓交易员身上,他们独自积累了数百万美元的交易损失。这个流氓画廊包括巴林银行的尼克·利森(亏损 12 亿美元)、住友银行的滨中康夫(亏损 18 亿美元)和 Allfirst 的约翰·鲁斯纳克(亏损 7.5 亿美元)。

As a result of the corporate scandals of the late 1990s and early 2000s, Congress was forced to legislate ethics in corporate America. The system of government regulation and private self-regulation was inadequate. The hall of shame includes Tyco, Xerox, Qwest, Sunbeam, WorldCom, Adelphia, Enron, Global Crossing, HealthSouth, ImClone and Credit Suisse First Boston, and Arthur Andersen. Other international scandals centered on rogue traders left alone to amass millions of dollars of trading losses. This rogues’ gallery included Nick Leeson at Barings ($1.2 billion loss), Yasuo Hamanaka at Sumitomo ($1.8 billion loss), and John Rusnak at Allfirst ($750 million loss).

如果员工、会计师和律师打算做错事,再多的立法也无法阻止他们,但国会认为这至少会让事情变得更加困难,并向其他人发出三思而后行的信息。2005 年生效的萨班斯-奥克斯利法案(SOX 或 SARBOX)和相关机构法规的新规定包括四大类新规则:

Where employees, accountants, and lawyers intend to do wrong, no amount of legislation will stop them, but Congress felt that it would at least make it more difficult and send a message to others to think twice. The new provisions of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX or SARBOX) and related agency regulations that became effective in 2005 include four broad categories of new rules:

 

 

财务会计制度

Financial Accounting Rules

  • 审计委员会必须仅由独立董事和至少一名财务专家组成。
  • Audit committee must consist solely of independent directors and at least one financial expert.
  • 首席执行官 (CEO) 和首席财务官 (CFO) 必须证明他们的财务报表公允地反映了公司的财务状况和结果。
  • Chief executive officers (CEOs) and chief financial officers (CFOs) must certify that their financial statements fairly present the financial condition and results of the company.
  • SEC 有权建立新的上市公司会计监督委员会,以结束失败的行业自律。
  • The SEC has the power to establish the new Public Company Accounting Oversight Board to end failed industry self-regulation.

 

 

内部控制制度

Internal Control Rules

  • 首席执行官和首席财务官必须证明财务报告内部控制的工作体系。
  • CEOs and CFOs must certify the working system of internal controls over financial reporting.
  • 外部审计师必须证明并报告管理层对其内部控制系统强度的评估。
  • Outside auditors must attest to and report on management’s evaluation of the strength of its system of internal controls.
  • 第 404 节要求对大型公司进行年度审计。
  • Section 404 requires annual audits for larger corporations.

 

 

执行道德行为准则

Executive Ethical Conduct Rules

  • 上市公司必须为其最高行政人员和高级财务官制定道德行为准则。
  • Public companies must adopt a code of ethical conduct for their most senior executive and senior financial officers.
  • 上市公司不能向其执行官或董事提供贷款。
  • Public companies cannot make loans to their executive officers or directors.
  • 如果财务报表因“重大不符合”报告要求而被重述,首席执行官和首席财务官可能需要退还报酬。
  • CEOs and CFOs can be required to return compensation if financial statements are restated due to “material noncompliance” with reporting requirements.
  • 禁止官员、董事和其他“内部人士”在养老基金停电期间交易公司股票。
  • Officers, directors, and other “insiders” are prohibited from trading company stock during pension-fund blackout periods.
  • 对举报公司不当行为的举报人提供新的保护措施,使其免遭高管报复。
  • New protection from executive retribution for whistle-blowers on corporate misdeeds.

 

 

关联方道德行为规范

Ethical Conduct Rules for Related Parties

  • 律师的新职业职责。
  • New professional responsibilities for lawyers.
  • 针对金融分析师的新利益冲突规则。
  • New conflict-of-interest rules for financial analysts.

除了这些规则之外,在纽约证券交易所 (NYSE) 和纳斯达克上市的上市公司还有许多额外的上市标准,以解决萨班斯-奥克斯利法案未解决的缺乏公司治理标准的问题。

In addition to these rules, public companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the NASDAQ have many additional listing standards that address the lack of corporate governance standards that were not addressed by the Sarbanes-Oxley Act.

萨班斯-奥克斯利法案要求的控制欺诈和腐败的内部控制系统复杂且审计成本高昂。Treadway 委员会 (COSO) 的赞助组织委员会准备了一份关于公司内部控制的综合研究,称为“内部控制综合框架”。美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 接受它作为公司官员、审计师和合规专业人员用于遵守萨班斯-奥克斯利法案的批准框架。

The internal controls systems to control fraud and corruption that the Sarbanes-Oxley Act requires are complex and expensive to audit. The Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission (COSO) prepared a comprehensive study of corporate internal controls called the “Internal Control-Integrated Framework.” The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) accepts it as the approved framework for corporate officials, auditors, and compliance professionals to use to comply with Sarbanes-Oxley.

Scott Green 的《萨班斯-奥克斯利法案经理指南》中包含了实施全面的内部控制系统的优秀框架。这本书为合规官提供了一种实用的方法,称为 Control Smart Approach,用于将多卷 COSO 框架整合到行动中:

An excellent framework to implement a comprehensive system of internal controls is contained in Scott Green’s Manager’s Guide to the Sarbanes-Oxley Act. This book provides compliance officers a practical methodology called the Control Smart Approach to integrate the multivolume COSO framework into action:

 

 

1. 识别来自组织内部和外部的可能威胁。

1. Identify the possible threats from within and outside the organization.

2. 确定公司内的所有流程。

2. Identify all the processes within your company.

3. 使用控制评估工具识别易受攻击的流程差距。

3. Identify the vulnerable process gaps with control assessment tools.

4. 实施内部控制以填补空白,并用强有力的控制流程填补空白。

4. Implement internal controls to fill gaps and fill them with strong control processes.

5. 通过性能和管理统计的预警系统监控和测试控制。

5. Monitor and test the controls with an early warning system of performance and management statistics.

萨班斯-奥克斯利法案的所有努力似乎都未能阻止潮流。萨班斯-奥克斯利法案实施后,其他公司丑闻发生了:2003 年的快速共同基金交易(Putnam、Invesco 和 Janus),2004 年保险业的投标操纵(Marsh & McLennan),以及 2004 年 Fannie Mae 的恶劣会计2005年,耶鲁大学国际公司治理研究所的负责人也卷入了一场关于他的费用账户的丑闻。

All the efforts of Sarbanes-Oxley have not appeared to stem the tide. After implementation of Sarbanes-Oxley, other corporate scandals occurred: rapid mutual-fund trading in 2003 (Putnam, Invesco, and Janus), bid rigging in the insurance industry in 2004 (Marsh & McLennan), and egregious accounting at Fannie Mae in 2004. Even the head of Yale University’s International Institute for Corporate Governance was caught in 2005 in a scandal concerning his expense account.

2008 年的次级抵押贷款崩溃是债券评级机构、抵押贷款经纪人、银行家、投资者和房主道德败坏的先例。作为回应,国会于 2010 年通过了多德-弗兰克华尔街改革和消费者保护法案。MBA 需要了解他们工作的道德环境以及他们帮助创造的道德环境。

The subprime mortgage meltdown in 2008 was the granddaddy lapse of ethics on the part of the bond rating agencies, mortgage brokers, bankers, investors, and home owners. In response Congress passed the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act in 2010. MBAs need to be aware of the ethical environment that they work in and the ones that they help to create.

 

 

关键道德要点

KEY ETHICS TAKEAWAYS

企业的社会责任——企业不仅要对所有者负责的概念

Social Responsibility of Business—Concept that businesses are accountable to more than their owners

相对主义及其四种形式——避免做出道德决定的原因

Relativism and Its Four Forms—Reasons to avoid making ethical decisions

利益相关者分析——考虑谁受业务决策影响的框架

Stakeholder Analysis—A framework considering who is affected by a business decision

2002 年的萨班斯-奥克斯利法案——一项试图对美国企业道德规范进行立法的联邦法律

Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002—A federal law attempting to legislate ethics in corporate America

第 3 天

Day 3

会计

ACCOUNTING

会计专题

Accounting Topics

会计准则

Accounting Rules

会计概念

Accounting Concepts

财务报表

The Financial Statements

比率分析

Ratio Analysis

管理会计

Managerial Accounting

会计是商业语言公司需要向全世界传达他们的成果。他们的受众包括员工、投资者、债权人、客户、供应商和社区。在公司内部,会计信息提供了一种控制、评估和计划运营的方法。无论受众或职能如何,会计都是数字。会计师(a-count-ants)“数豆子”,以便记录、总结和分析业务活动。会计师从一开始就存在,教授不会让你忘记它。

Accounting is the language of business. Corporations need to communicate their results to the world. Their audience includes employees, investors, creditors, customers, suppliers, and communities. Within the company, accounting information provides a means to control, evaluate, and plan operations. Whatever the audience or function, accounting is numbers. Accountants (a-count-ants) “count the beans” so that business activity can be recorded, summarized, and analyzed. Accountants have been around from the beginning of time, and professors don’t let you forget it.

在圣经时代,会计师会记录社区筒仓中储存了多少谷物。你认为所罗门王怎么知道干旱期间只有三十天的粮食供应?它来自会计师。古往今来,会计师们一直用手指、算盘和计算器来记录。在现代,会计已经超越了存储谷物的物理计数。会计回答有关企业的这些基本问题:

In biblical times the accountants kept track of how much grain was stored in the community’s silos. How do you think King Solomon knew that there was only a thirty-day supply of grain during a drought? It was from the accountants. Throughout the ages accountants have kept track with their fingers, abacuses, and calculators. In modern times accounting has gone beyond the physical count of grain in storage. Accounting answers these basic questions about a business:

 

 

公司拥有什么?

What does a company own?

公司欠别人多少钱?

How much does a company owe others?

公司的运营表现如何?

How well did a company’s operations perform?

公司如何获得现金来资助自己?

How does the company get the cash to fund itself?

 

 

图片

当然,腓尼基人是最早的会计。

THE PHOENICIANS, OF COURSE, WERE THE FIRST ACCOUNTANTS.

 

 

所有公司活动最终都必须以美元衡量,这就是会计的用武之地,不管你喜不喜欢。虽然这个领域可能看起来很乏味,但您必须具备会计的应用知识才能在商业世界中发挥作用。因为知识就是力量,MBA 需要通晓会计知识才能理解其功能;更重要的是,他们必须能够为决策目的索取和使用会计信息。例如,具有会计知识的律师可以解释财务报表以获得有价值的信息。在和解谈判中,他们成为一股不可忽视的力量。因为员工的绩效通常是用会计数据来评估的,所以会计知识是必不可少的。

All corporate activities must eventually be measured in dollars, and that is where accounting comes in, like it or not. Although this area may appear tedious, you must have a working knowledge of accounting to function in the business world. Because knowledge is power, MBAs need to be literate in accounting to understand its function; more important, they must be able to ask for and use accounting information for decision-making purposes. Lawyers with accounting knowledge, for example, can interpret financial statements to get valuable information. In settlement negotiations, they become a force to be reckoned with. Because employee performance is often evaluated with accounting data, a knowledge of accounting is essential.

然而,掌握复杂会计规则的专业知识并不是 MBA 的目标。因此,我的目标是为您提供基础知识,而不是让您成为注册会计师。由于企业的每一项职能,包括财务、运营和营销,都使用会计师生成的数字,因此掌握基本原理并仔细阅读本章非常重要。

Having expert knowledge of complex accounting rules, however, is not the MBA’s goal. Therefore, my aim here is to give you the basics, not to make you a CPA. Because every function of business, including finance, operations, and marketing, uses the numbers generated by the accountants, it is important to grasp the fundamentals and read this chapter carefully.

 

 

公认会计原则

GAAP RULES

会计有无数的规则。你不应该试图记住它们,但你应该足够熟悉它们以便与注册会计师交流。会计规则设定了标准,以便公司的财务报告可以在平等的基础上进行比较。会计的管理规则称为公认会计原则(GAAP)。这些“差距”规则是多年来制定的,类似于法律界的先例。

Accounting has innumerable rules. You should not attempt to memorize them, but you should become sufficiently familiar with them to communicate with CPAs. Accounting rules set the standards so that financial reports of companies may be compared on an equal basis. Accounting’s governing rules are called Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). These “Gap” rules have been developed over the years and are analogous to the precedents in the legal profession.

随着新的商业活动领域的发展,财务会计准则委员会(FASB) 编写了额外的规则来处理这些情况。多年来,该机构制定了一百多条“Fasbee”规则,会计师通过编号引用它们。

As new areas of business activity developed, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) wrote additional rules to deal with these situations. This body had generated over a hundred “Fasbee” rules over the years, and accountants referred to them by number.

2009 年,经过数十年的声明和数百条规则,FASB 终于创建了会计准则编纂(ASC)。虽然没有改变规则,但 ASC 将所有规则组织成主题,以便于参考。目前,ASC 被认为是公认会计原则的单一来源。会计师仍然使用旧的 FASB 规则编号作为参考。

In 2009, after decades of pronouncements and hundreds of rules, the FASB finally created the Accounting Standards Codification (ASC). Although it did not change the rules, the ASC organized all the rules into topics for easier reference. Currently, the ASC is considered the single source of Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Accountants still use the old FASB rule numbers for reference.

会计也是国际关注的问题,尤其是对于跨国公司而言。国际会计准则 委员会(IASB) 制定了自己的一套准则,称为国际财务报告准则(IFRS)。会计师认为这是一个不太详细的“基于原则”的规则体系,允许公司使用他们的判断。相比之下,美国的 GAAP 规则是“基于规则”的,公司必须遵守明确定义的规则。

Accounting is also an international concern, especially for multinational corporations. The International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) has created its own set of guidelines, called the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). Accountants consider it a less-detailed “principles-based” system of rules, which permits companies to use their judgment. In contrast, the GAAP rules in the United States are “rules based” and companies must adhere to well-defined rules.

2002 年,FASB 和 IASB 同意开始其系统的“融合”过程。迄今为止,既没有就系统的细节也没有就实施日期达成一致。

In 2002, the FASB and IASB agreed to begin the process of “convergence” of their systems. To date neither the details of the system nor an implementation date have been agreed upon.

 

 

会计的基本概念

THE FUNDAMENTAL CONCEPTS OF ACCOUNTING

要了解会计,在你进入数字之前,你首先必须熟悉基本概念。规则并不能说明全部情况。以下七个概念和词汇不是一套法律,而是一套指导政策,是所有会计规则和报告的基础。

To understand accounting, before you get into the numbers you first must become familiar with the underlying concepts. The rules do not tell the whole story. The following seven concepts and vocabulary are not a set of laws, but rather a guiding set of policies that underlie all accounting rules and reporting.

 

 

实体

The Entity

现金和应计会计

Cash and Accrual Accounting

客观性

Objectivity

保守主义

Conservatism

持续经营

Going Concern

一致性

Consistency

重要性

Materiality

 

 

实体

THE ENTITY

会计报告传达特定实体的活动。会计师报告所涵盖的参数必须清楚。报告实体可以是单个杂货店、生产工厂、整个企业或企业集团。例如,Darden Restaurants 是一个公司实体。Red Lobster 和 Olive Garden 连锁店也是其中的实体。

Accounting reports communicate the activities of a specific entity. The parameters covered by an accountant’s report must be clear. A reporting entity can be a single grocery store, a production plant, an entire business, or a conglomerate. For example, Darden Restaurants is a corporate entity. The Red Lobster and Olive Garden chains are also entities within it.

 

 

收付实现制与权责发生制

CASH BASIS VERSUS ACCRUAL ACCOUNTING

如何计算豆子很重要。使用收付实现制会计,只有在现金易手时才记录交易。非常小的企业可以从他们的支票账户登记册中获得他们需要的所有会计信息。如果一家商店在 2012 年支付了两年的租金,则所有租金成本将在 2012 年记为成本,而不是在两年期间。当一家小型机械车间购买电动工具时,其成本将在购买时记录,而不是在工具的使用寿命内记录。明白了吗?现金会计会告诉您何时以及有多少现金易手,但它不会试图将开展业务的成本与其相关销售额相匹配。

How the beans are being counted is important. Using cash basis accounting, transactions are recorded only when cash changes hands. Very small businesses can get all the accounting information they need from their checking account register. If a store pays two years’ rent in 2012, all the rent cost would be recorded as a cost in 2012, not over a period of two years. When a small machine shop purchases a power tool, its cost would be recorded when it was purchased, not over the useful life of the tool. Get the idea? Cash accounting tells you when and how much cash changed hands, but it doesn’t try to match the costs of conducting business with their related sales.

大多数规模较大的公司都使用权责发生制会计方法。权责发生制会计在不考虑现金流动的情况下确认活动的财务影响。Target 的租金成本每月与入住收益一起记录。波音飞机工厂铆钉枪的成本是在工人们在工厂车间使用工具的整个使用寿命期间记录下来的。由于波音采购的美元规模,现金会计会扭曲其财务报表。因此,权责发生制会计提出了两个相关问题,即分配匹配,因为活动和现金流动通常不会同时发生。

Most companies of any significant size use the accrual accounting method. Accrual accounting recognizes the financial effect of an activity when the activity takes place without regard to the movement of cash. Target’s rental costs are recorded each month with the benefits of occupancy. The cost of rivet guns at Boeing’s aircraft factory is recorded over the useful life of the tools as workers use them on the factory floor. Due to the dollar magnitude of Boeing’s purchases, cash accounting would distort its financial statements. Accrual accounting, as a consequence, raises two related issues, allocation and matching, because activity and cash movement most often do not occur at the same time.

 

 

会计期间的分配。由于损益表反映的是特定时期内的活动,因此确认时期非常重要。如果 IBM 于 2012 年 12 月 31 日向福特汽车公司赊销了一台大型计算机,权责发生制将在签订具有约束力的合同时记录 2012 年的销售,而不是福特在 2013 年实际支付现金时的记录。销售可以记录在那一点,因为那时福特在法律上有义务接收计算机。这也是IBM 会计记录确认销售及其相关成本和利润的时期。另一方面,福特将确认或累积分配在其使用寿命内使用计算机的成本。

Allocations to Accounting Periods. Because profit-and-loss statements reflect activities over a specific time, the period of recognition is very important. If IBM sold a large computer on credit to Ford Motor Company on December 31, 2012, accrual accounting would record the sale in 2012 when the binding contract was signed, not when Ford actually laid out the cash in 2013. The sale could be recorded at that point, because it was then that Ford became legally bound to take delivery of the computer. That was also the period in which IBM’s accounting records would recognize the sale and its related costs and the profits. Ford, on the other hand, would recognize or accrue and allocate the cost of using the computer over its useful life.

 

 

匹配。使用与分配相同的逻辑,一个时期内的销售额与其相关的销售成本或同一会计期间的销售成本 (COGS)匹配。通过将销售额与其相关成本相匹配,您可以计算出公司实际赚取的利润。例如,当 Safeway 在 2012 年 12 月 31 日销售新鲜农产品,但直到 2013 年才支付供应商的账单,权责发生制会计仍将记录与这些销售相关的 2012 年成本。Safeway 2012 年的销售产生了费用,因此,销售应在同年分配相关成本。没有既定的分配匹配政策,会计师可以通过选择何时记录销售或费用来掩盖或延迟不良结果,从而轻松操纵财务报告。

Matching. Using the same logic as in allocation, sales made in one period are matched with their related selling costs or cost of goods sold (COGS) in the same accounting period. By matching sales dollars with their related costs, you can figure the profit a company has actually made. For example, when Safeway sells fresh produce on December 31, 2012, but doesn’t pay the supplier’s bill until 2013, accrual accounting will nevertheless record the costs related to those sales in 2012. Safeway’s sales in 2012 caused the expense, and therefore, the sales should have the related costs allocated against them in the same year. Without established policies for allocation and matching, accountants could easily manipulate financial reports by choosing when to record sales or expenses in order to cover up or delay bad results.

 

 

交易定义和目的

TRANSACTION DEFINITION AND OBJECTIVITY

会计记录仅包含已“完成”且具有“可量化”货币价值的交易。尚未完成但被认为是“确定的事情”的销售不能记录。即使来自 CaseIH 的一位值得信赖的推销员发誓说农夫琼斯肯定会购买联合收割机,会计师也会拒绝。出于他的会计目的,销售尚未发生。CaseIH 尚未交付机器,农民也未签署可强制执行的合同。

Accounting records only contain transactions that have been “completed” and that have a “quantifiable” monetary value. Sales that have not been completed, but are thought of as “sure things,” cannot be recorded. Even if a trustworthy salesman from CaseIH swears that farmer Jones is a sure bet to buy a combine, the accountant would say no. For his accounting purposes, the sale has not taken place. CaseIH has not delivered the machinery, nor has the farmer signed an enforceable contract.

会计师也有一个客观性规则,可以在有疑问时为他们提供指导。必须有合理且可验证的证据来支持交易,否则不会被记录。

Accountants also have an objectivity rule to guide them when in doubt. There must be reasonable and verifiable evidence to support the transaction, or else it does not get recorded.

例如,公益活动产生的商誉不能记在账上。你能赋予它什么价值?Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) 定期进行电视宣传,告诉消费者与世界其他地区相比,美国的食品有多么便宜。一名会计师如何客观地评估感恩的美国人或现任国会议员心中对公司的“好感”?专利和发明也很难估价。如果杜邦公司以 1,000,000 美元的价格从一位发明家手中购买了一项新化学品的专利,那么在账簿上的记录为 1,000,000 美元。该专利具有可量化的市场价值。但是,如果杜邦公司的一位科学家在实验室中开发了一种新工艺,则会计师在该创新被出售之前无法对其进行记录。

For example, the goodwill generated by a public service campaign cannot be recorded on the books. What value could you put on it? Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) regularly runs TV propaganda telling consumers how cheap food is in America compared with the rest of the world. How could an accountant objectively put a dollar value on the “good feelings” directed toward the company in the hearts of grateful Americans or incumbent congressmen? Patents and inventions are also hard to value. If Du Pont purchases a patent on a new chemical from an inventor for $1,000,000, it would be recorded on the books at $1,000,000. The patent has quantifiable market value. However, if a Du Pont scientist developed a new process in the lab, the accountants could not record the innovation until it was sold. The accountant would need to have a contract and a canceled check to substantiate the entry in the books.

在 2002 年 WorldCom 倒闭的情况下,其电信网络资产在账面上被高估了 33 亿美元。会计师将本地访问的持续成本添加到他们网络的价值中,而通过本地运营商拨打客户的长途电话本应是普通成本。

In the case of WorldCom’s collapse in 2002, their telecommunications network assets were overvalued on the books by $3.3 billion. Accountants added the ongoing costs for local access to the value of their network when they should have been ordinary costs to place customers’ long-distance calls through local carriers.

 

 

会计保护和历史成本

ACCOUNTING CONSERVATION AND HISTORICAL COSTS

当公司发生可能发生且可以合理估计的损失时,会计师会记录这些损失,即使损失实际上并未实现。当收益预计,会计师推迟记录它们,直到它们实际变现。如果在 2010 年,国际纸业公司的管理层预计 2012 年出售其曼哈顿公司总部将获得巨额利润,那么他们要到 2012 年才能记录利润。他们搬到孟菲斯是不确定的。管理层可能会改变主意,否则房地产市场可能会暴跌。但为了争论起见,我们假设国际纸业在 2010 年发现,在 2012 年它必须清理其建筑物下方的有毒废物池。管理层将不得不聘请一名顾问来估算清理成本并在 2010 年记录该成本。这样,财务报表的读者将被警告 2012 年乌云笼罩地平线。同样,必须每年审查并披露的或有负债,以确保读者了解其可能对公司资产造成的减值。会计保守主义支配着财务报表的编制。如有疑问,请保持保守。会计记录仅包含可衡量和可验证的财产、债务、销售额和成本。

When companies incur losses that are probable and that can reasonably be estimated, accountants record them, even if the losses have not actually been realized. When gains are expected, accountants postpone recording them until they are actually realized. If in 2010 the management of International Paper Company anticipated a big profit in 2012 on the sale of their Manhattan corporate headquarters, they could not record their profit until 2012. Their move to Memphis was uncertain. Management could have changed their minds, or the real estate market could have tumbled. But for the sake of argument, let’s assume that International Paper discovered in 2010 that in 2012 it would have to clean a toxic-waste pool beneath its building. Management would have to hire a consultant to estimate the cost of cleanup and record that cost in 2010. In this way, the financial-statement readers would be warned of dark clouds looming over the horizon in 2012. In the same way, the ongoing lawsuits related to asbestos that many companies battle are contingent liabilities that must be reviewed annually and disclosed to ensure readers understand their possible impairment of corporate assets. Accounting conservatism governs the preparation of financial statements. When in doubt, be conservative. Accounting records contain only measurable and verifiable properties, debts, sales, and costs.

保守主义还要求交易按其历史成本记录。国际纸业的纽约总部在房地产繁荣期间升值,但这种收益无法被认可,即使该公司在 1600 年代为印第安人支付了一些小装饰品。记录继续以为交换财产而给予印第安人的珠子为代价对房地产进行估价。在会计师看来,建筑物的价值可能会在出售时贬值。

Conservatism also dictates that transactions be recorded at their historical costs. International Paper’s New York headquarters appreciated in value during the real estate boom, and yet this gain could not be recognized, even if the company had paid the Indians a few trinkets for it in the 1600s. The records continue to value the real estate at the cost of the beads given to Indians in exchange for the property. In the accountant’s mind, the value of the building may decline by the time it’s sold.

如果资产价值低于记录成本,那就是另一回事了。保守主义要求今天承认损失否则可能会误导财务报表的读者认为所代表的资产至少值得其历史成本。

If the value of an asset falls below the recorded cost, that’s another story. Conservatism dictates that the loss be recognized today. To do otherwise could mislead the reader of a financial statement to believe that the assets represented are at least worth their historical cost.

存货的货品价值亦按历史成本列账。即使价格发生变化,客观价格也是企业过去支付的价格。必须有可验证的采购订单和账单来支持成本。例如,如果 Staples Office Supplies 在其账簿上使用 International Paper 生产的便签纸,它将按成本对纸张进行估值。即使同一存货的再订货成本上升,现有商品的成本仍将保持在 Staples 账面的历史成本。

The value of goods held in inventory is also stated at historical cost. Even if prices change, the objective price is that which the business paid historically. There must be verifiable purchase orders and bills to support the cost. For instance, if Staples Office Supplies carries notepaper produced by International Paper on its books, it would value the paper at cost. Even if reorder costs for the same inventory had gone up, the cost of the merchandise on hand would remain at Staples’ historical cost on the books.

 

 

持续经营

GOING CONCERN

财务报表将企业描述为经营实体。分配给会计记录中项目的价值假设企业是持续经营的。会计师假定公司将在可预见的未来继续经营;因此,财务报表中指定的价值不是“甩卖”价格。如您所知,他们使用历史成本。例如,轧钢设备的购买成本很高。它可能对 US Steel 等仍在运营的制造公司具有巨大价值,但在破产拍卖中出售时,其价值将非常小。二手工业设备对外人来说价值有限。因此,假设公司正在高效地使用其机器,会计记录使用历史成本。

Financial statements describe businesses as operating entities. The values assigned to items in the accounting records assume that the business is a going concern. Accountants presume that companies will continue to operate in the foreseeable future; therefore, the values assigned in the financial statements are not “fire sale” prices. They use historical costs, as you already know. Steel-rolling equipment, for example, is expensive to purchase. It may have great value to an ongoing manufacturing company such as US Steel, but put up for sale at a bankruptcy auction, its value would be pennies on the dollar. Used industrial equipment has limited value to outsiders. Accordingly, accounting records use historical costs assuming that the company is using its machinery productively.

 

 

一致性

CONSISTENCY

一致性概念对于财务报表的读者来说至关重要。会计规则要求一个实体年复一年地使用相同的会计规则。这使分析师能够将过去的结果与当前的结果进行比较。与前面介绍的其他规则一样,这条规则试图最大限度地减少商人喜欢从事的会计猴子生意的诱惑,以掩盖不良结果。

The consistency concept is crucial to readers of financial statements. Accounting rules demand that an entity use the same accounting rules year after year. That enables an analyst to compare past with current results. This rule, like the others presented earlier, tries to minimize the temptations of accounting monkey business that businessmen like to engage in to cover up bad results.

一致性规则坚持公司每年都以相同的方式评估其存货。可用的主要方法是FIFO(先进先出)或LIFO(后进先出)基础。使用先进先出法,最早的商品采购成本“首先”被确认为成本,将最近采购的商品成本留在持有待售的库存价值中。使用后进先出法,货物的“最后”成本首先被确认为成本,将最早的成本留在存货价值中。会计方法独立于存货的物理移动。这只是一种会计方法。正如您想象的那样,如果您可以随意更改会计方法,狡猾的会计师就可以年复一年地操纵财务报表。一致性要求每年都使用相同的会计方法。

The consistency rule insists that companies value their inventory the same way from year to year. The major methods available are a FIFO (First In First Out) or LIFO (Last In First Out) basis. Using FIFO, the oldest purchase costs of goods are recognized as costs “first,” leaving the most recently purchased cost of goods in the value of inventory held for sale. Using LIFO, the “last” costs of goods are recognized as costs first, leaving the oldest costs in the value of inventory. The accounting method is independent of the physical movement of inventory. It is just an accounting method. As you might imagine, if you could change accounting methods at will, a crafty accountant could manipulate the financial statements from year to year. Consistency requires that the same accounting method be used from year to year.

作为 FIFO 和 LIFO 方法的示例,考虑一个硬币经销商,他的陈列柜中只有两个相同的金币。一个是他在 1965 年以 50 美元的价格购买的,另一个是他在 2012 年以 500 美元的价格购买的。一位钱币收藏家来到他的商店,以 1,000 美元的价格购买了一枚硬币。使用 FIFO,店主将在他的会计记录中记录 1,000 美元的销售额、50 美元的成本以及由此产生的 950 美元的利润。他剩余的库存将反映一枚历史成本为 500 美元的硬币。购买的第一枚硬币的成本首先被记录为销售商品的成本。使用替代的 LIFO 方法,所有者将记录 500 美元的成本,而利润仅为 500 美元。他的存货记录会显示一枚价值 50 美元的硬币。最后的成本最先使用。实际出售的硬币是 1965 年还是 2012 年收购的,并不重要。这只是一种会计方法。但是所选择的方法会极大地影响公司计算利润和评估存货的方式。那确实重要。

As an example of FIFO and LIFO methods, consider a coin dealer who has only two identical gold coins in his showcase. One he bought in 1965 for $50, and the other he purchased in 2012 for $500. A numismatist comes to his shop and buys one of the coins for $1,000. Using FIFO, the shop owner would record a sale of $1,000, a cost of $50, and a resulting profit of $950 in his accounting records. His remaining inventory would reflect one coin at a historical cost of $500. The cost of the first coin purchased was the first to be recorded as a cost of goods sold. Using the alternate LIFO method, the owner would record a cost of $500, and a profit of only $500. His inventory records would show a coin with a value of $50. The last cost was used first. Which coin was actually sold, the 1965 or the 2012 acquisition, does not matter. It’s only an accounting method. But the method chosen dramatically affects the way a company calculates profits and values inventory. That does matter.

如果由于“重大”原因需要改变会计方法,财务报表必须在报告末尾的脚注中说明原因。脚注还必须说明该变化如何影响当年的利润和资产价值。你可以跑,但你不能躲过会计师。

If a change of accounting method is necessary for a “substantial” reason, the financial statements must state the reason in the footnotes located at the end of the report. The footnotes must also state how the change affected the profits and asset values that year. You can run, but you cannot hide from the accountants.

 

 

重要性

MATERIALITY

财务报表的一个重要警告是它们并不精确到一分钱,即使您认为顽强的会计师会出具此类报告。事实上,它们只是在实质上是正确的,这样读者才能对一个实体的立场有一个相当明确的看法。财务报表提供了实质上准确的画面,以便合理的人可以根据该报告做出明智的决定。对于小型汽水机的财务报表,一百美元的错误可能会严重扭曲记录,而十美元的错误则不会。相比之下,像可口可乐这样的大型跨国公司可能会在其报告中出现数百万美元的错误,并且不会严重扭曲决策的情况。

An important caveat of financial statements is that they are not exact to the penny, even though you would expect that tenacious accountants would produce such reports. In fact, they are only materially correct so that a reader can get a fairly stated view of where an entity stands. Financial statements give a materially accurate picture so that a reasonable person can make informed decisions based on the report. For a small soda fountain’s financial statements, a one-hundred-dollar error may materially distort the records, while a ten-dollar error may not. In contrast, huge multinational companies like Coca-Cola may have million-dollar errors in their reports and not materially distort the picture for decision making.

 

 

到现在为止,您可以开始深入了解会计师如何看待企业,以及为什么他们在大多数情况下甚至作为人也是保守的。在我之前的版本中,我展示了一幅漫画,取笑会计师的保守主义。我在 Arthur Andersen LLP 的公告板上找到了它,我曾在那里担任审计师。亚瑟在我离开后的几年里迷失了方向,并在 2001 年因涉及安然倒闭的欺诈行为而倒闭。剩下的只有四大会计师事务所:普华永道会计师事务所、毕马威会计师事务所、德勤会计师事务所和安永会计师事务所。为了与变化保持一致,我在下面选择了不同的卡通片。

By now you can begin to develop an insight into how accountants think about businesses and possibly why they are, for the most part, conservative even as people. In my previous edition I showed a cartoon that poked fun at the conservatism of accountants. I’d found it on a bulletin board at Arthur Andersen LLP, where I had worked as an auditor. Arthur strayed in the years after I left and collapsed in 2001 in connection with its fraud involving the collapse of Enron. That left only the Big Four accounting firms: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, KPMG LLP, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLP, and Ernst & Young LLP. In keeping with the changes I have selected a different cartoon, below.

图片

新来的会计,先生。二加二又是四。”

NEW FROM ACCOUNTING, SIR. TWO AND TWO IS FOUR AGAIN.”

 

 

财务报表

THE FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

MBA 没有接受过将交易输入计算机的培训;相反,他们受过教育来解释会计师生成的信息。财务报表是一段时间内记录的所有单项交易的摘要。财务报表是会计职能的最终产品。它们让感兴趣的用户有机会在简洁的摘要中看到发生了什么。要了解一家公司,你必须能够阅读和理解三大财务报表:

MBAs are not trained to key transactions into a computer; rather they are schooled to interpret the information that accountants generate. The financial statements are the summary of all the individual transactions recorded during a period of time. Financial statements are the final product of the accounting function. They give interested users the opportunity to see in a neat summary what went on. To know a company, you must be able to read and understand three major financial statements:

 

 

资产负债表

The Balance Sheet

损益表

The Income Statement

现金流量表

The Statement of Cash Flows

 

 

资产负债表

THE BALANCE SHEET

定义

Definitions

要做好准备,您需要了解资产负债表的基本词汇。资产负债表显示公司拥有的资产、欠他人的负债以及所有者的累计投资。资产负债表显示截至特定日期的这些余额。它是公司在特定时间持股的快照。资产负债表是所有会计记录的基础,您必须熟悉它。以下是资产负债表的组成部分。

To set the stage you need to know the basic vocabulary of the balance sheet. The balance sheet presents the assets owned by a company, the liabilities owed to others, and the accumulated investment of its owners. The balance sheet shows these balances as of a specific date. It is a snapshot of a company’s holdings at a given time. The balance sheet is the foundation for all accounting records, and you must be familiar with it. The following are the components of balance sheets.

资产是公司为业务的未来利益而拥有的资源。

Assets are the resources that the company possesses for the future benefit of the business.

 

 

  • 现金
  • Cash
  • 存货
  • Inventory
  • 客户应收账款——应收账款
  • Customers receivables—accounts receivable
  • 设备
  • Equipment
  • 建筑物
  • Buildings

 

 

负债是特定于美元的义务,用于偿还借款、债务以及向他人提供商品或服务的其他义务。

Liabilities are dollar-specific obligations to repay borrowing, debts, and other obligations to provide goods or services to others.

 

 

  • 银行债务
  • Bank debt
  • 欠供应商的款项——应付账款
  • Amounts owed to suppliersaccounts payable
  • 预付账户或客户预付款以交付商品和服务
  • Prepaid accounts or advances from customers to deliver goods and services
  • 欠税
  • Taxes owed
  • 欠雇员的工资
  • Wages owed to employees

 

 

所有者权益是所有者对公司投资的累积美元衡量标准。他们的投资可以是现金、其他资产或公司收益的再投资形式。

Owners’ equity is the accumulated dollar measure of the owners’ investment in the company. Their investment can be either in the form of cash, other assets, or the reinvestment of earnings of the company.

 

 

  • 普通股——所有者的投资
  • Common stockinvestment by owners
  • 额外实收资本——所有者的投资
  • Additional paid-in capitalinvestment by owners
  • 留存收益——所有者对收益的再投资
  • Retained earningsreinvestment of earnings by owners

 

 

基本会计方程式

The Fundamental Accounting Equation

顾名思义,资产负债表是一张“资产负债表”。支配会计平衡的基本方程式是:

As the name implies, the balance sheet is a “balance” sheet. The fundamental equation that rules over accounting balance is:

 

 

资产(A)=负债(L)+所有者权益(OE)

Assets (A) = Liabilities (L) + Owners’ Equity (OE)

你拥有的(资产)等于你借入的(负债)和你为偿还债务而投资的(权益)的总和。这个等式或“身份”解释了公司会计记录中随时间推移发生的一切。记住它!

What you own (assets) equals the total of what you borrowed (liabilities) and what you have invested (equity) to pay for it. This equation or “identity” explains everything that happens in the accounting records of a company over time. Remember it!

 

 

图片

 

 

“平衡”法案的例子

Examples of the “Balancing” Act

以一家名为 Bob's Market 的新本地超市为例,我将通过三个示例说明平衡行为的运作方式。

Using the example of a new local supermarket called Bob’s Market, I will give you three examples of how the balancing act works.

 

 

1. 市场开张时,鲍勃购买了一台收银机。资产在规模的左侧增加,而银行债务,一种负债,也在支付权的右侧增加。资产增加与负债增加相抵消。

1. When the market opened up for business, Bob purchased a cash register. Assets increased on the left side of the scale, while bank debt, a liability, was also increased on the right to pay for it. The asset increase was balanced by an increase in liability.

2. 当鲍勃投入自己的部分资金并吸引父亲的部分资金开市时,天平右侧的权益增加,左侧资产现金增加以平衡交易。

2. When Bob invested some of his own money and attracted some of his father’s to open the market, equity increased on the right side of the scale, and cash, an asset, increased on the left to balance the transaction.

3. 当商店成功时,它有望还清收银机的银行债务(右侧减少的负债)。现金,一种资产,将被减少,从而平衡左边的交易。

3. When the store becomes successful, it will hopefully be able to pay off its bank debt for the register (liabilities reduced on the right). The cash, an asset, would be reduced, thus balancing the transaction on the left.

所有交易都遵循这个平衡概念。如果没有平衡分录,就无法影响资产负债表的一侧。因此,当资产等于负债和所有者权益 (A = L + OE) 时,会计记录被称为“平衡”。如果记录不平衡,则会计师犯了错误。

All transactions adhere to this balancing concept. There is no way to affect one side of the balance sheet without a balancing entry. The accounting records are therefore said to be in “balance” when the assets equal the liabilities and owners’ equity (A = L + OE). If the records do not balance, an accountant has made a mistake.

 

 

会计流程:复式记账系统

The Accounting Process: The Double Entry System

您可能听说过,会计师在他们的账簿中记入日记帐分录来记录企业的每笔交易。会计师称他们的账簿为总账。会计科目表称为会计科目表。使用会计基本等式所示的相同平衡概念,资产增加放在左侧,称为借方。负债和所有者权益的增加放在右侧,称为贷方。在所有情况下,日记帐分录至少有两行数据,借方和贷方。减少资产的分录放在右边,即贷方,减少负债和权益的分录放在左边,即借方。由于这种右侧/左侧方法,每个账户交易的手动记录保存类似于一个T,因此这些记录被称为T 账户。

As you may have heard, accountants make journal entries in their books to record each of a business’s individual transactions. Accountants call their books the general ledger. The listing of the accounts is called the chart of accounts. Using the same balancing concept shown by accounting’s fundamental equation, asset additions are placed on the left side, called a debit. Liabilities and owners’ equity additions are placed on the right side, called a credit. In all cases, journal entries have at least two lines of data, a debit and a credit. Entries to reduce assets are placed on the right, a credit, and reductions of liabilities and equity are placed on the left, a debit. Because of this right-side/left-side method, the manual record keeping of each account’s transactions resembles a T, and consequently these records are called T accounts.

入账规则

RULES FOR ENTRIES INTO ACCOUNTS

图片

举个例子,在年初,鲍勃和他的父亲为他们在商店的初始投资 15,000 美元发行了 1000 股股票。记录交易的日记帐分录如下所示:

To illustrate, at the beginning of the year Bob and his father issued themselves one thousand shares of stock for their initial investment of $15,000 in their store. The journal entry to record the transaction looked like this:

资产负债表分录#1

BALANCE SHEET JOURNAL ENTRY #1

账户名称:现金

ACCOUNT TITLE: Cash

(类型):(资产)

(TYPE): (Asset)

借方: 15,000

DEBIT: 15,000

信用:

CREDIT:

效果:增加

EFFECT: increase

 

 

账户名称:普通股

ACCOUNT TITLE: Common Stock

(类型):(原厂)

(TYPE): (OE)

借方:

DEBIT:

信用: 15,000

CREDIT: 15,000

效果:增加

EFFECT: increase

 

 

同样,债务的偿还将被记账为:

Similarly a repayment of a debt would be journalized as:

资产负债表分录 #2

BALANCE SHEET JOURNAL ENTRY #2

帐户名称:银行债务

ACCOUNT TITLE: Bank Debt

(类型):(责任)

(TYPE): (Liability)

借方: 15,000

DEBIT: 15,000

信用:

CREDIT:

效果:减少

EFFECT: decrease

 

 

账户名称:现金

ACCOUNT TITLE: Cash

(类型):(资产)

(TYPE): (Asset)

借方:

DEBIT:

信用: 15,000

CREDIT: 15,000

效果:减少

EFFECT: decrease

 

 

因为记录中的每个条目都平衡,所以在一段时间结束时,汇总各个“账户”及其净期末余额的整个资产负债表也平衡(A = L + OE)。

Because each entry to the records balances, at the end of a period of time, the entire balance sheet that summarizes the individual “accounts” and their net ending balances also balances (A = L + OE).

 

 

资产负债表示例

A Balance Sheet Example

让我们继续以本地杂货店为例,看看在其运营的第一年出现了哪些余额。

Let’s continue with the local grocery store example and see what balances appeared during its first year of operation.

 

 

Bob 下面的陈述类似于许多零售和制造公司的典型资产负债表。三件事值得注意。资产总和等于负债和所有者权益的总和。其次,资产在左边负债和OE在右边,就像借方和贷方的分录一样。第三个值得注意的项目是,资产负债表是截至某个时间点,2012 年 12 月 31 日,一个特定日期。尽管企业是随着时间的推移买卖的结果,但资产负债表只是公司在规定时间的资源和义务的“快照”。

Bob’s statement below resembles the typical balance sheet of many retail and manufacturing firms. Three things are worth noting. The total of assets equals the total of liabilities and owners’ equity. Second, the assets are on the left and the liabilities and OE are on the right, just like the journal entries of debits and credits. The third noteworthy item is that the balance sheet is as of a point certain in time, December 31, 2012, a specific date. Even though a business is the result of buying and selling over time, the balance sheet is only a “snapshot” of what the company’s resources and obligations are at a stated time.

BOB'S MARKET,FAIRWAY,堪萨斯州,截至 2012 年 12 月 31 日的资产负债表

BOB’S MARKET, FAIRWAY, KANSAS, BALANCE SHEET AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2012

(运营第一年)

(the first year of operation)

图片

流动性:当前和长期分类

Liquidity: Current and Long-Term Classifications

资产负债表的一个重要方面是资产和负债按照流动性从高到低的顺序列出。流动性是指资产转换为现金的能力。现金、客户应收账款和存货被标记为流动并列在第一位,因为它们很容易在下一个运营期间(通常是一年)内转移和转换为现金(即,它们是流动的)。设备不容易卖;因此,它被归类为固定资产、长期资产或非流动资产(NCA),并列在流动项目下方。查看 Bob 的资产负债表以验证这些项目的位置。

An important aspect of the balance sheet statement is that the assets and liabilities are listed in order of their liquidity, from most liquid to least. Liquidity means the ability of an asset to be converted to cash. Cash, accounts receivable from customers, and inventory are labeled current and are listed first since they are easily transferred and converted into cash within the next operating period, typically in one year (i.e., they are liquid). Equipment is not easily sold; therefore, it is classified as fixed, long-term, or a noncurrent asset (NCA) and listed below the current items. Check out Bob’s balance sheet to verify the placement of these items.

负债方面,应付供应商账款、应付职工工资、应付税金为流动负债。它们是必须在一年内支付的短期债务。银行债务是长期或非流动负债 (NCL),因为它将在几年内还清。

On the liabilities side, the accounts payable to suppliers, wages payable to employees, and taxes payable are current liabilities. They are short-term obligations that will have to be paid within a year. The bank debt is long-term or a noncurrent liability (NCL) because it will be paid off over a period of years.

 

 

营运资金

Working Capital

会计和金融中常用的术语是营运资金。它指的是公司在日常业务中不断“与之打交道”的资产和负债。它们也是最具流动性的资产,为财务报表读者提供了了解公司偿付能力的线索。因此,营运资本项目是公司的流动资产负债。净营运资本是衡量偿付能力的指标,是流动资产总额减去流动负债总额。

A commonly used term in accounting as well as finance is working capital. It refers to the assets and liabilities that a company constantly “works with” as part of its daily business. They are also most liquid assets, giving a financial statement reader a clue to a firm’s solvency. Consequently, working capital items are the current assets and liabilities of the firm. Net working capital, a measure of solvency, is the total of current assets less the total of current liabilities.

 

 

流动资产流动负债=净营运资金

Current Assets Current Liabilities = Net Working Capital

Bob's Market 的净营运资金为 28,000 美元(115,000美元- 87,000 美元)。这是 Bob 为履行其当前义务而拥有的超额流动资产。从银行家的角度来看,拥有大量净营运资金的杂货店可能被认为具有良好的信用风险,因为该企业可以偿还债务。相反,它还可以向公司突袭者或运营分析师表明,店主在货架上持有过多商品或在收银机中持有过多现金,因此其库存管理不善。精明的经营者会将库存水平和手头现金降低到更有效的水平,并将差额作为股息收入囊中。适当的营运资金数额取决于行业。

At Bob’s Market net working capital amounts to $28,000 ($115,000 $87,000). That’s Bob’s excess of liquid assets to make good on its current obligations. From a banker’s vantage point, a grocer with a large amount of net working capital may be considered a good credit risk because the business can make its debt payments. Conversely, it could also show a corporate raider or operations analyst that the store owner is mismanaging his inventory by holding too many goods on the shelves or too much cash in the registers. An astute operator would reduce inventory levels and the cash on hand to more efficient levels and pocket the difference as a dividend. The proper amount of working capital depends on the industry.

 

 

所有者权益如何适用

How Owners’ Equity Fits In

所有者权益代表公司对其所有者的长期义务。公司有义务根据公司的成功向所有者支付投资回报。OE 不像银行贷款那样具有固定的利率或期限,因此它被隔离在负债之下。只有在所有其他债务都还清后,业主才会得到付款。所有者的回报取决于公司的成功。如果无法偿还债务,公司可能会被迫破产。无法向投资者支付股息没有这样的惩罚。如果公司利润丰厚,所有者就赢了。否则,他们可能会损失所有投资。这就是所有权的风险。

Owners’ equity represents the long-term obligation of a company to its owners. Companies are obligated to pay the owners a return on their investment based on the success of the firm. OE does not carry a set rate of interest or maturity like a bank loan, so it is segregated below the liabilities. Owners are paid only after all other debt payments are made. An owner’s return is dependent on the success of the company. If debt repayments cannot be made, the firm can be forced into bankruptcy. The inability to pay a dividend to investors has no such penalty. If the company is highly profitable, the owners win. If not, they can lose all of their investment. That’s the risk of ownership.

通过将我们的会计恒等式从 A = L + OE 代数反转为 OE = A L,您可以看到 OE 是公司的“剩余”权益,即资产减去负债。OE 也称为净值,因为它是所有其他义务之后的“净值”。就 1980 年代臭名昭著的房地产大亨唐纳德特朗普而言,他可能拥有数十亿美元的财产,但据报道,他的净资产在 1990 年暂时变为负值,因为他的债务甚至超过了他在纽约的财产价值约克城和大西洋城。

By reversing algebraically our accounting identity from A = L + OE to OE = A L, you can see that OE is the “residual” interest of the firm, assets less liabilities. OE is also called net worth, as it is the “net” value after all other obligations. In the case of Donald Trump, the notorious real estate magnate of the 1980s, he may have owned billions of dollars of property, but temporarily his net worth reportedly became negative in 1990 as his debts became even larger than the value of his properties in New York City and Atlantic City.

所有者权益因经营而增加。企业买卖、提供和接受服务。希望一段时间后,公司通过这些活动增加了财富。如果净资产随着时间的推移而增加,那么它一定增加了 OE。

Owners’ equity is increased by conducting business. Businesses buy and sell and provide and receive services. Hopefully after a period of time, the company has increased its wealth with those activities. If the net assets increased over time, then it must have increased its OE.

资产负债表上的 OE 标题可能会受到两种方式的影响。投资者可以投入更多资金,也可以选择公司“保留”其利润。为此目的,“留存收益”行出现在资产负债表上。如果所有者想取出收益,他们可能会选择收取股息。股息减少了他们的累计留存收益。

The OE captions on the balance sheet can be affected in two ways. Investors can contribute more funds or they may elect that the company “retain” its profits. The line “retained earnings” is on the balance sheet for that purpose. If owners want to take out earnings, they may elect to receive dividends. Dividends reduce their accumulated retained earnings.

如果信息有用,会计师有时会编制所有者权益表和财务报表。这些详细报表概述了所有者的投资、他们的股票交易以及在这一年中支付给他们的股息。这些交易影响资产负债表上的所有者权益项目。所有者权益表,也称为股东权益变动表,属于次要报表。但是,对于拥有大量所有者活动的公司来说,这可能很重要。大公司总是制作这份声明,因为它揭示了许多公众感兴趣的交易。花点时间回到 Bob 的资产负债表,在您继续查看损益表之前查看其演示文稿。

Accountants sometimes prepare the Statement of Owners’ Equity with the financial statements if the information is useful. These detailed statements outline the owners’ investments, their stock transactions, and the dividends paid to them during the year. These transactions affect the owners’ equity captions on the balance sheet. The Statement of Owners’ Equity, also called the Statement of Changes Shareholders’ Equity, is considered a minor statement. However, it may be important for companies that have a great deal of owner activity. Large companies always produce this statement because it reveals many transactions that interest the public. Take a moment and go back to Bob’s balance sheet and review its presentation before you move on to the income statement.

 

 

损益表

THE INCOME STATEMENT

由于资产负债表显示特定日期的余额,损益表显示特定“时期”内活动和交易的“流量”。该期间可能是一个月、一个季度或一年。有销售收入和与这些收入相关的费用。当使用权责发生制正确匹配收入和支出时,差额就是“收入”。

As the balance sheet shows balances as of a specific date, the income statement shows the “flow” of activity and transactions over a specific “period.” That period may be a month, a quarter, or a year. There are revenues from sales and expenses relating to those revenues. When revenues and expenses are properly matched using accrual accounting, the difference is “income.”

 

 

收入费用=收入

Revenue Expenses = Income

损益表示例

An Income Statement Example

下面我们将查看 Bob's Market 的损益表,了解他在第一年的经营情况。

Below we’ll look at the income statement of Bob’s Market to see how his operation performed during his first year of business.

 

 

BOB'S MARKET, FAIRWAY, KANSA,截至 2012 年 12 月 31 日的年度损益表

BOB’S MARKET, FAIRWAY, KANSAS, INCOME STATEMENT FOR THE YEAR ENDING DECEMBER 31, 2012

图片

 

 

损益表术语

Income Statement Terminology

与资产负债表一样,损益表有几个值得注意的特征。在损益表中,费用的分类非常重要,因为计算的收入类型不同。每一个都提供了关于 Bob 经营业绩的特定见解。在阅读本术语部分时,请参考 Bob 的损益表。

As with the balance sheet, the income statement has several noteworthy features. In the income statement, the classifications of expenses are extremely important because different types of income are calculated. Each offers a particular insight about Bob’s operating results. Please refer to Bob’s income statement as you read through this terminology section.

 

 

毛利率。损益表的顶部计算毛利率。

Gross Margin. The top part of the income statement calculates gross margin.

 

 

毛利率=

Gross Margin =

销售-所售商品或服务的“直接”成本

Sales The “Direct” Cost of the Goods or Services Sold

 

 

在这一点上,读者可以在不考虑公司费用负担的情况下判断公司是否盈利。Bob's Market 的毛利率是他的销售额减去销货成本 (COGS)。销货成本包括杂货成本以及与使杂货可售“直接”相关的所有成本,例如批发商的装运成本。在制造公司中,它包括生产成本、材料成本和人工成本。在像 Bob 这样的简单零售情况下,COGS 是通过以下公式计算的:

At this point, the reader can determine if the company is making a profit without considering the burden of corporate expenses. At Bob’s Market gross margin was his sales less the cost of goods sold (COGS). COGS includes the cost of groceries and all costs “directly” related to making the groceries salable, such as the cost of shipment from the wholesaler. In a manufacturing company it includes the costs of production, materials, and labor. In a simple retail situation like Bob’s, COGS is calculated by this formula:

 

 

期初库存+新采购-期末库存=销售成本

Beginning Inventory + New Purchases Ending Inventory = Cost of Goods Sold

如果一家企业的毛利率为负,要么成本失控,要么行业的定价结构无法为公司提供利润。如果一家小型电子制造商试图与亚洲蓝光制造商索尼、三星和夏普竞争,就会遇到这种情况。一家小型美国制造商的效率不高,也无法收取更高的价格来弥补其更高的生产成本。

If a business has a negative gross margin, either costs are out of control, or the pricing structure of the industry does not afford the company a profit. A small electronics manufacturer would encounter this situation if it tried to compete with the Asian Blu-ray manufacturers Sony, Samsung, and Sharp. A small U.S. manufacturer could not be as efficient and could not charge a higher price to cover its higher costs of production.

营业利润。损益表的下一部分与公司的营业利润、息税前利润 (EBIT) 有关。我们越向下移动损益表,扣除的费用就越多。在利润计量的经营层面,扣除所有其他与收入过程直接相关的企业费用。在 Bob 的案例中,他有员工工资、租金、水电费、广告费和许多其他较小的项目。

Operating Profit. The next part of the income statement relates to the operating profit of the company, the earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT). The further we move down the income statement, the more expenses that are deducted. At the operating level of profit measurement, all the other corporate expenses directly related to the revenue process are deducted. In Bob’s case he has employee wages, rent, utilities, advertising, and many other smaller items.

权责发生制会计规定固定资产的分配成本(也称为折旧摊销)计入收益。采用匹配原则,将提供公司产品的成本与其当期相关收入相匹配。会计师将设备、工具、建筑物和其他固定资产的成本除以其使用寿命,以估算创收过程中所需资产的耗尽成本。在 Bob 的案例中,他花了 30,000 美元购买货架、手推车和收银机。因为他估计它们将持续十年,所以 Bob 的损益表将显示每年 3,000 美元($30,000/10)的费用来匹配和分配在销售期间使用这些资产的成本受益。许多分析师计算的衡量盈利能力的指标是 EBITDA,即息税折旧摊销前利润。

Accrual accounting dictates that the allocated cost of fixed assets, also called depreciation or amortization, be charged to earnings. Using the principle of matching, the cost of providing the company’s products is matched with its related revenues of the period. Accountants divide the cost of equipment, tools, buildings, and other fixed assets by their useful lives to estimate the cost of using up assets needed in the revenue-generating process. In Bob’s case, he spent $30,000 for shelves, carts, and cash registers. Because he estimated that they will last ten years, Bob’s income statement will show an expense of $3,000 ($30,000/10) each year to match and allocate the cost of using those assets with the period of sales benefited. A measure of profitability that many analysts calculate is EBITDA, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.

“其他费用”是一个包罗万象的类别,适用于不足以证明在损益表上单独一行的项目。在 Bob 的损益表中,它包括修理他购物车上那些烦人的卡住轮子和空头支票的损失。

“Other expenses” is a catchall category for items not large enough to justify a separate line on the income statement. On Bob’s income statement it includes fixing those annoying stuck wheels on his shopping carts and the losses on bad checks.

净利。在利润的经营水平以下,扣除与经营没有直接联系的项目来计算收入。首先是当期的利息支出。可以证明公司借贷是用来支持运营的。但是,公司的融资方式与企业的经营活动是分开的。会计师不将利息包括在营业收入中,因为从事类似业务的公司可能是通过使用不同比例的银行借款和投资者资金来筹集资金的。不扣除投资者的股息。所有者从报表底部的净收入中支付股息。

Net Income. Below the operational level of profit, items not directly linked to operations are deducted to calculate income. The first is the interest expense for the period. A case can be made that corporate borrowing is used to support the operation. However, the method of financing the company is separate from the operating activities of the business. Accountants do not include interest in operating income, because companies in similar businesses may have been funded by using differing proportions of bank borrowing and investors’ money. Investors’ dividends are not deducted. Owners pay dividends out of the net income at the bottom of the statement.

如果将利息计入营业收入,类似公司的营业收入可能会因满足现金需求的方式而大相径庭。由不同管理层管理的公司可以通过其所有者的额外投资为其所有现金需求提供资金。这些资金不会产生利息费用,因此,公司的营业收入会更高。如果同一家公司为满足其所有需求而借款,则其营业收入将因利息支出而减少。通过分离利息支出,营业收入仅反映“经营”公司的成本,而不是“融资”公司的成本。

If interest were to be included in operating income, similar companies could have vastly differing operating incomes just by the way they funded their cash needs. A company under a different management could fund all its cash needs by additional investments from its owners. These funds would incur no interest charges, and, therefore, the company’s operating income would be higher. If the same company borrowed for all its needs, its operating income would be reduced by the interest expenses. By segregating interest expenses, the operating income reflects only the costs of “operating” the company, rather than “financing” it.

使用从营业收入中排除利息的相同逻辑,税收费用被分开以使营业收入不含营业外费用。不同的税收策略会导致不同的税收支出。由于税收通常是熟练的税务会计师笔下的产物,而不是经营成果,因此税收费用作为单独的扣除额放在经营成果之下,而净收入作为收入的最终衡量标准。净利润是公司的底线利润,是媒体报道的衡量成败的数字。

Using the same logic that excluded interest from operating income, tax expenses are segregated to leave operating income free of nonoperating expenses. Different tax strategies can result in greatly different tax expenses. Because taxes are often the product of a skilled tax accountant’s pen instead of operating results, tax expenses are put below operating results as a separate deduction, leaving net income as the final measure of income. Net income is the bottom-line profit of the company, and it is the figure that is reported in the media as the measure of success or failure.

 

 

如何制作损益表日记帐分录

How Income Statement Journal Entries Are Made

为了履行他们古老的计算豆子的职责,会计师在公司账簿上记入日记帐分录以计算当年的净收入。净收入是在规定的时间段内从销售额中减去费用后的结果。净收入也是同期资产的净增加额。日记帐分录跟踪所有收入和支出的总额以及相应的资产增减情况。会计师在准备资产负债表的同时为损益表分录。

In keeping with their age-old duty to count the beans, accountants make journal entries to the company’s books to tally up net income during the year. Net income is the result of subtracting the expenses from the sales made during a defined period of time. Net income is also the net increase in assets for the same period of time. Journal entries keep track of the total of all the revenues and expenses as well as their corresponding increases and decreases in assets. Accountants make the entries for the income statement at the same time as they prepare the balance sheet.

在这一年中,将每项收入和费用累加起来,计算出全年的最终净收入数字。年终完成最终清点并计算净利润时,将新年度收入和费用的运行总额设为零,差额或净损益作为留存收益计入资产负债表。该会计年度,有时称为会计年度,可以从任何一个月开始。它不必在一月份开始。

During the year, running totals are accumulated for each revenue and expense to calculate the final net income figure for the entire year. At year’s end when the final tally is completed and net income is calculated, the running totals of revenues and expenses are set to zero for the new year, and the difference or net income or loss is recorded on the balance sheet as retained earnings. That accounting year, at times called a fiscal year, can begin in any month. It does not have to start in January.

日记帐分录看起来与您在资产负债表中看到的相同。为了跟踪损益表,收入记录为贷方(右侧),费用记录为借方(左侧)。

The journal entries look the same as those that you have seen used for the balance sheet. To track the income statement, revenues are recorded as credits (on the right side), and expenses are recorded as debits (on the left).

损益表分录与资产负债表分录相结合。销售意味着企业收到了一些有价值的东西,一项资产,以换取其他有价值的东西,一笔费用。在 Bob 的杂货店,销售意味着现金流入以换取杂货库存。Bob 的会计师按以下方式每周记录他的销售额和成本:

Income statement entries are combined with balance sheet entries. A sale means that the business received something of value, an asset, in exchange for something else of value, an expense. At Bob’s grocery store, sales meant that an inflow of cash came in exchange for grocery inventory. Bob’s accountant made weekly entries to record his sales and their costs in the following way:

损益表分录 #1

INCOME STATEMENT JOURNAL ENTRY #1

账户名称:现金

ACCOUNT TITLE: Cash

(类型):(资产)

(TYPE): (Asset)

借方: 100,000

DEBIT: 100,000

信用:

CREDIT:

效果:增加

EFFECT: increase

 

 

帐户名称:销售收入

ACCOUNT TITLE: Sales Revenue

(类型):(损益表)

(TYPE): (Income Statement)

借方:

DEBIT:

信用: 100,000

CREDIT: 100,000

效果:增加

EFFECT: increase

 

 

同样,会计师记录了这些销售的成本:

Similarly the accountant recorded the cost of those sales:

损益表分录 #2

INCOME STATEMENT JOURNAL ENTRY #2

帐户名称:销售成本

ACCOUNT TITLE: Cost of Goods Sold

(类型):(损益表)

(TYPE): (Income Statement)

借方: 95,000

DEBIT: 95,000

信用:

CREDIT:

效果:减少

EFFECT: decrease

 

 

帐户名称:库存

ACCOUNT TITLE: Inventory

(类型):(资产)

(TYPE): (Asset)

借方:

DEBIT:

信用: 95,000

CREDIT: 95,000

效果:减少

EFFECT: decrease

 

 

为了说明全年的损益表分录,假设这两个分录是全年唯一的销售额和成本。当年的净收入应该是总销售收入 100,000 美元减去 COGS 总额 95,000 美元,即 5,000 美元。该净收入数字还模拟了相同条目记录的净资产变化。现金增加了 100,000 美元,杂货减少了 95,000 美元,净额为 5,000 美元。

To illustrate a full year’s income statement entries, assume that those two entries were the only sales and costs for the entire year. The net income for the year would have been the net of the total sales revenues of $100,000 less the total COGS of $95,000, or $5,000. That net income figure also mimicked the change in net assets recorded by those same entries. Cash increased $100,000 and groceries decreased $95,000, a net of $5,000.

年末资产净增加 5,000 美元等于当年的净收入。Bob 会在资产负债表上将净变化记录为留存收益的增加。他还将关闭当年的所有收入和支出账户或将其归零,以准备在以下分录中记录下一年的活动:

At year’s end the net increase of assets of $5,000 equals the net income for the year. Bob would have recorded that net change on the balance sheet as an increase to retained earnings. He would also close out or set to zero all the revenue and expense accounts for the year in preparation for recording the next year’s activity in the following entry:

损益表年终结算分录

INCOME STATEMENT YEAR END CLOSE OUT ENTRY

帐户名称:销售收入

ACCOUNT TITLE: Sales Revenue

(类型):(损益表)

(TYPE): (Income Statement)

借方: 100,000

DEBIT: 100,000

信用:

CREDIT:

效果:逆转

EFFECT: reversal

 

 

帐户名称:销售成本

ACCOUNT TITLE: Cost of Goods Sold

(类型):(损益表)

(TYPE): (Income Statement)

借方:

DEBIT:

信用: 95,000

CREDIT: 95,000

效果:逆转

EFFECT: reversal

 

 

帐户名称:留存收益

ACCOUNT TITLE: Retained Earnings

(类型):(资产负债表上的所有者权益)

(TYPE): (Owner’s Equity on the Balance Sheet)

借方:

DEBIT:

信用: 5,000

CREDIT: 5,000

效果:增加

EFFECT: increase

 

 

请注意日记帐分录余额。损益表分录自行逆转,在资产负债表上留下净收入和留存收益。如果年内在右侧输入 100,000 美元的销售额,则在年终时在左侧输入 100,000 美元进行清算。资产负债表的资产、负债和所有者权益余额是结转到下一个会计年度的永久运行总计。你有它。在一个页面中,您可以看到一整年的会计周期和 MBA 课堂惊愕的几个小时的缩略版。

Notice that the journal entry balances. The income statement entries reversed themselves, leaving the net income addition to retained earnings on the balance sheet. Where sales of $100,000 were entered on the right during the year, they are cleared at year end with a $100,000 entry on the left. The balance sheet’s asset, liability, and owners’ equity balances are permanent running totals that are carried forward to the next accounting year. There you have it. In a page you’ve witnessed an abbreviated version of an entire year’s accounting cycle and hours of MBA classroom consternation.

 

 

损益表与资产负债表的联系

The Income Statement’s Link to the Balance Sheet

从 Bob 的实际损益表中,读者可以看出该商店的利润微薄。他的净收入为 30,000 美元。比收入的计算更重要的是了解损益表与资产负债表的关系。损益表是一年中许多活动的结果。通过许多单独的交易,资产和负债在一年中受到上下影响。截至年底,公司资产负债表上的净资产因经营活动而发生变化。根据损益表计算的净收入通过显示如何说明当年的运营情况净资产发生变化。因为这是 Bob 的第一年,留存收益等于 30,000 美元,即第一年的净收入。在随后的几年中,它将受到下一年的收益和股息的影响。

From Bob’s actual income statement, the reader can see that the store had a marginally profitable year. He had a net income of $30,000. What is even more important than just the calculations of income is the understanding of how the income statement relates to the balance sheet. The income statement is the result of many activities during the year. Assets and liabilities are affected upward and downward during the year through many individual transactions. At year’s end, the net assets of the firm, as totaled by the balance sheet, had changed because of operating activities. The net income, as calculated by the income statement, tells the story of the year’s operations by showing how that change in net assets occurred. Because it was Bob’s first year, retained earnings equaled $30,000, the first year’s net income. In succeeding years it will be affected by the next year’s earnings and dividends.

 

 

现金流量表

THE STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS

现金的重要性

The Importance of Cash

俗话说,“现金为王”。没有绿色,企业就无法运作。例如,让我们看一下 Leonard, Inc.,该公司向为 Bob's Market 供货的食品公司销售包装印刷设备。如果伦纳德公司以每台 500 万美元的价格向卡夫出售三台印刷机,每台赚取 200 万美元,那么伦纳德的损益表将显示 600 万美元的利润。然而,伦纳德在夏季制造了设备,卡夫在秋季交付时支付了费用。如果公司在 10 月份等待现金,而 7 月份的薪水出现反弹,工厂员工就不会太高兴了。

As the saying goes, “Cash is king.” Without the green a business cannot function. For example, let’s take a look at Leonard, Inc., who sold package-printing equipment to the food companies that supplied Bob’s Market. If Leonard, Inc., sold three printing presses to Kraft at $5 million each and earned $2 million on each, Leonard’s income statement would show $6 million in profits. However, Leonard manufactured the equipment during the summer and Kraft paid for it in the fall when it was delivered. The factory employees wouldn’t be too happy if their July paychecks bounced while the company waited for the cash in October.

由于现金对运营至关重要,而且最重要的是,为了避免破产,所有财务报表都包括现金流量表现金流量表。因为了解现金的“来源”和“用途”对企业来说至关重要,所以增加现金流量表已被金融界广泛视为一项重大改进。

Because the cash is critical for operations, and—most important—in order to stay out of bankruptcy, all financial statements include the Statement of Cash Flows or Cash Flow Statement. Because knowing the “sources” and “uses” of cash is paramount for a business, the addition of the statement of cash flows has widely been seen as a great improvement by the financial community.

无法管理公司的现金需求往往是许多“盈利”企业倒闭的主要原因。许多以净收入衡量成功的公司在面临现金短缺和愤怒的债权人时猛然惊醒。

The inability to manage a company’s cash needs is often the primary cause of the demise of many “profitable” enterprises. Many companies that measured their success by their net income have had a rude awakening when confronted with cash shortages and angry creditors.

目光短浅地查看损益表以衡量健康状况的投资者可能会被骗。例如,波音公司的国防承包商 McDonnell Douglas 的健康收益掩盖了潜在的企业疾病。福布斯向其读者报道:

Investors myopically looking at the income statement for a measure of health can be deceived. For example, Boeing’s McDonnell Douglas, the defense contractor, had healthy earnings that masked an underlying corporate illness. Forbes reported it to its readers:

 

 

从表面上看,麦克唐纳道格拉斯的情况看起来并没有那么糟糕。它可能报告每股收益超过 10 美元。. . ,而去年为 5.72 美元。但即使粗略地看一下这些数字,也会发现收入不稳定,即使不是转瞬即逝的。从现金流入手。到第三季度为负 3500 万美元。. . 现金流失可能会加速。. . .

On the surface, things don’t look so bad for McDonnell Douglas. It will probably report over $10 a share in earnings . . . , versus $5.72 last year. But even a cursory glance examination of the numbers shows that earnings are shaky, if not ephemeral. Start with cash flow. It was negative $35 million by the third quarter . . . and the bleeding of cash could accelerate. . . .

 

 

1980 年代的杠杆收购 (LBO) 现象使用现金流原理作为其工具。收购者偿还收购目标公司借款的能力在很大程度上取决于收购产生现金流的能力。大部分信息都存在于现金流量表中。1989 年,Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR) 根据公司产生现金的能力偿还债务,以 264 亿美元的债务融资收购了当时最大的杠杆收购 RJR Nabisco。

The leveraged buyout (LBO) phenomenon of the 1980s used the principles of cash flow as its tool. A raider’s ability to repay the money borrowed to acquire a target company was based in large part on the cash-flow-generating ability of the acquisition. Much of that information lies in the statement of cash flows. In 1989, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR) bought RJR Nabisco in the largest leveraged buyout up to that time with $26.4 billion in debt financing based on the cash-generating ability of the company to pay off the debt.

 

 

现金流量表与资产负债表的联系

The Cash Flow Statement’s Link to the Balance Sheet

现金流量表也遵循会计的平衡法原则。我将首先介绍会计数学,以便您了解乍一看可能令人困惑的陈述的逻辑。有了数学知识,现金流量表的例子就很容易理解了。下面的方程式不是为了给人留下深刻印象,只是为了提供信息。

The cash flow statement also follows the balancing-act principle of accounting. I will present the accounting math first so that you may understand the logic of what, at first glance, can be a confusing statement. With the math out of the way, the cash flow statement example can readily be understood. The equations that follow are not included to impress, merely to inform.

使用黄金基本会计方程式,我们有:

Using the golden fundamental accounting equation we have:

 

 

A = L + OE

A = L + OE

资产=负债+所有者权益

Assets = Liabilities + Owners’ Equity

 

 

由于资产和负债由流动(短期)和非流动(长期)项目组成,因此可以扩展等式:

Because assets and liabilities are composed of both current (short-term) and noncurrent (long-term) items, the equation can be expanded:

 

 

CA + NCA = CL + NCL + OE

CA + NCA = CL + NCL + OE

 

 

流动资产+非流动资产=流动负债+非流动负债+所有者权益

Current Assets + Noncurrent Assets = Current Liabilities + Noncurrent Liabilities + Owners’ Equity

为了进一步细分,当前资产类别可以显示为它的各个组成部分:

To further break it down, the current asset class can be shown as its individual components:

 

 

现金+应收账款 (AR) +库存 (INV) + NCA = CL + NCL + OE

Cash + Accounts Receivable (AR) + Inventory (INV) + NCA = CL + NCL + OE

以代数方式重新排列等式,我们可以分离出现金:

Rearranging the equation algebraically, we can isolate cash:

 

 

现金= CL + NCL + OE AR INV NCA

Cash = CL + NCL + OE AR INV NCA

如等式所示,等号右边的流动负债 (CL) 增加意味着左边的现金增加。增加对供应商的债务可以释放企业的现金用于其他目的。相反,库存等资产的增加将意味着现金的减少。这说得通; 购买存货需要现金。等号一侧的加减会影响等式另一侧的总数。

As revealed by the equation, an increase in a current liability (CL) on the right of the equals sign would mean an increase in cash on the left. Increasing your debts to suppliers frees up a business’s cash for other purposes. Conversely an increase in an asset such as inventory would mean a decrease in cash. It makes sense; buying inventory requires cash. Adding or subtracting on one side of the equals sign affects the total on the other side of the equation.

我在商学院的学习小组发现现金流量表是会计学主要主题中最令人困惑的。但是,如果前和平队志愿者在我的学习小组中没有接受过商业培训,那么我完全相信你也有能力接受它。以上述为基础,我将说明现金流量表的重要性,并以Bob's Market为例来结束现金流量课。

My study group at business school found cash flow statements to be the most confusing of the major topics in accounting. But if the former Peace Corps volunteer in my study group with no business training caught on, I have full confidence in your ability to pick it up also. With the preceding as foundation, I will illustrate the importance of the cash flow statement and use Bob’s Market as an example to finish off the cash flow lesson.

 

 

现金流量表的用途

The Uses for the Cash Flow Statement

现金流量表是一种帮助避免流动性问题的管理工具。损益表和资产负债表都用于形成公司​​的现金流量图。该声明回答了以下重要问题:

The cash flow statement is a management tool to help avoid liquidity problems. Both the income statement and the balance sheet are used to form the cash flow picture of a company. The statement answers the following important questions:

 

 

现金流量和收益之间有什么关系?

What is the relationship between cash flow and earnings?

股息是如何融资的?

How are dividends financed?

债务如何还清?

How are debts paid off?

经营产生的现金如何使用?

How is the cash generated by operations used?

管理层规定的财务政策是否反映在现金流量中?

Are management’s stated financial policies reflected in the cash flow?

 

 

通过使用现金流量表,管理人员可以计划和管理来自三种业务活动的现金来源和需求:

By using a statement of cash flows, managers can plan and manage their cash sources and needs from three types of business activities:

 

 

营运活动

Operations Activities

投资活动

Investing Activities

融资活动

Financing Activities

 

 

这些活动清楚地显示在现金流量表中。

These activities are shown clearly in the cash flow statements.

 

 

现金流量表示例

A Cash Flow Statement Example

让我们将鲍勃市场视为我理论讨论的跳板,并进入实际的现金流量表,如下所示。

Let’s look at Bob’s Market as a springboard from my theoretical discussion and get into an actual cash flow statement, found below.

 

 

很容易过于专注于数字而没有真正掌握语句准备背后的逻辑。因此,让我们分别查看每个条目并解释其背后的逻辑。MBA 的会计教育侧重于数字背后的逻辑,而本科课程主要侧重于会计机制,以培养注册会计师,而不是 MBA 经理。

It is easy to get too wrapped up in the numbers and not really grasp the logic behind the preparation of the statement. Therefore, let’s look at each entry separately and explain the logic behind it. The MBA’s accounting education focuses on the logic behind the numbers, while undergraduate programs focus primarily on the accounting mechanics to turn out CPAs, not MBA managers.

请在以下讨论中参考 Bob 的现金流量表。

Please refer to Bob’s cash flow statement during the following discussion.

BOB 截至 2012 年 12 月 31 日止年度现金流量的市场报表

BOB’S MARKET STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS FOR THE YEAR ENDING DECEMBER 31, 2012

图片

经营活动

Operating Activities

经营活动部分,会计师计算企业日常经营活动产生的现金。损益表显示 Bob 的“会计利润”为 30,000 美元,但没有显示他的业务使用或产生了多少现金。正如我之前解释的那样,大多数公司都像鲍勃那样使用权责发生制会计来确定他的净收入。现金流量表将应计制净收入转换为现金制。为此,必须通过两种方式调整净收入以恢复现金制。

In the Operating Activities section, accountants calculate the cash generated from the day-to-day operating activities of a business. The income statement showed “accounting profit” of $30,000 for Bob, but it did not show how much cash was used or generated by his operations. As I explained earlier, most companies use accrual basis accounting, as Bob has, to determine his net income. The cash flow statement converts that accrual basis net income to a cash basis. To do that the net income has to be adjusted in two ways to get back to a cash basis.

 

 

步骤 1. 调整非现金支出的净收入。确定现金流量的第一步是调整损益表中的净收入。不使用现金但在损益表中作为费用扣除的经营项目,必须加回来。正如损益表部分所解释的那样,折旧实际上并没有将公司的现金“带出门”。只有当 Bob 购买手推车、收银机和陈列柜时才使用现金。但在这些资产的整个生命周期中,折旧只是一种“会计成本”,将这些资产的原始现金支出与其受益的销售额相匹配。因此,必须加回折旧。这不是现金的使用。资产本身的购买稍后包含在投资活动部分。

Step 1. Adjust Net Income for Noncash Expenses. The first step to determine the flow of cash is to adjust the net income from the income statement. Operating items that did not use cash, but were deducted in the income statement as an expense, must be added back. Depreciation, as explained in the income statement section, does not actually take the company’s cash “out the door.” Only when Bob purchased the carts, registers, and displays was cash used. But over the life of these assets, depreciation is only an “accounting cost” that matches the original cash expenditure for these assets with the sales they benefit. Therefore, depreciation must be added back. It is not a use of cash. The purchases of the assets themselves are included later in the Investing Activities section.

 

 

步骤 2. 根据营运资金的变化调整净收入。净收入还必须根据年内经营活动影响的流动资产和流动负债的变化进行调整。通过调整营运资本增加和减少的净收入,我们可以使用基本会计等式确定对现金的影响。

Step 2. Adjust Net Income for Changes in Working Capital. Net income must also be adjusted for the changes in current assets and current liabilities that operational activities affected during the year. By adjusting net income for working capital increases and decreases, we can determine the effect on cash by using the fundamental accounting equation.

当 Bob 增加他的流动资产时,比如他的货架存货,他使用现金,因为购买杂货需要现金。这在现金流量表中显示为减法。当他向客户提供信贷时,这会延迟他收到现金,从而“使用”商店本可以用于其他目的的现金。这也显示为语句的减法。相反,库存(即销售额)的减少会增加 Bob 的现金。如果应收账款减少,即客户付款,就会产生现金。学习要点:流动资产的增加使用现金,而流动资产的减少产生现金。

When Bob increased his current assets, such as his shelf inventory, he used cash because it took cash to buy groceries. This is shown as subtractions on the cash flow statement. When he extended credit to his customers, it delayed his receipt of cash, thus “using” cash that the store could have been using for other purposes. This is also shown as a subtraction on the statement. Conversely, reductions in inventory, i.e., sales, would have increased Bob’s cash. If receivables had declined, i.e., customers’ payments, cash would have been generated. Point of Learning: Increases in current assets use cash while decreases in current assets produce cash.

流动负债的变化对现金有相反的影响。在 Bob 的案例中,他的供应商预付了他 80,000 美元。当 Bob 向他的供应商和员工欠下巨额债务时,这意味着他得到了信贷,这反过来又释放了他的现金用于其他目的。从某种意义上说,创造了现金。如果鲍勃减少了他的负债,那就意味着他已经支付了减少债务的款项,从而减少了现金。学习要点:流动负债的增加会增加现金,而减少会消耗现金。

Current liabilities changes have the opposite effect on cash. In Bob’s case his vendors advanced him $80,000. When Bob ran up a large debt with his vendors and employees, this meant that credit was extended to him, which in turn freed his cash for other purposes. In a sense, cash was created. If Bob had reduced his liabilities, that would have meant that he had made payments to reduce his debts, reducing cash. Point of Learning: Increases in current liabilities increase cash while decreases use up cash.

要计算当年的净变化,只需从期末余额项目中减去期初的流动资产和负债余额即可。因为这是 Bob 的第一年(为了简单起见),期初余额均为零,期末余额等于当年的账户增长。流动资产的增加是现金的“使用”,流动负债的增加是现金的“来源”。

To calculate the net changes for the year, simply subtract the beginning of the period’s balances of current assets and liabilities from the ending balances items. Because it was Bob’s first year (and to make it simple), the beginning balances were all zero and the ending balances are equal to the account increases for the year. The increases in current assets are “uses” and the increases in current liabilities are “sources” of cash.

说服自己 Bob 的现金流量表是正确的。参考他的现金流量表。回头看损益表,核实净收​​入。查看资产负债表以检查营运资金项目 (CA + CL) 的变化是否等于现金流量表中显示的变化。这一切都适合!

Convince yourself that Bob’s cash flow statement is correct. Refer to his cash flow statement. Look back at the income statement to verify the net income. Review the balance sheet to check that the changes in the working capital items (CA + CL) equal the changes shown on the cash flow statement. It all fits together!

 

 

投资活动

Investing Activities

正如标题所解释的那样,现金流量表的这一区域涉及公司长期“投资”的现金使用和产生。因此,投资活动部分反映了资产负债表上长期(非流动)资产交易的现金影响。当公司购买或出售建筑物或设备等长期资产时,与交易相关的现金反映在现金流量表的投资活动部分。在 Bob 的案例中,他投资了 30,000 美元购买商店设备,如他的声明所示。如果他卖掉了设备,收到的现金就会反映出来。查看资产负债表以验证其长期资产的变化如何反映在现金流量表的投资部分中。

As the title explains, this area of the cash flow statement deals with cash use and generation by long-term “investments” by the company. Accordingly, the investment activities section reflects the cash effects of transactions in long-term (noncurrent) assets on the balance sheet. When a company buys or sells a long-term asset like a building or piece of equipment, the cash relating to the transaction is reflected in the investing activities section of the cash flow statement. In Bob’s case, he invested $30,000 in store equipment as shown on his statement. If he had sold the equipment, the cash received would have been reflected. Review the balance sheet to verify how the change in his long-term assets was reflected in the investing section of the cash flow statement.

 

 

融资活动

Financing Activities

公司可以通过两种方式为自己融资。管理者要么借钱,要么从投资者那里筹集资金。借款将反映在资产负债表长期负债部分的变化中。投资者的参与将反映在资产负债表所有者权益账户的变化上。

There are two ways a company can finance itself. Either managers borrow money or they raise money from investors. Borrowing would be reflected in changes in the long-term liabilities section of the balance sheet. The participation by investors would be reflected in changes in the owners’ equity accounts of the balance sheet.

Bob 从银行借了 10,000 美元,这增加了现金。在资产负债表上,“银行债务”从 0 美元增加到 10,000 美元,反映为现金来源。当商店偿还债务时,将在筹资活动部分反映为现金使用。

Bob borrowed $10,000 from the bank, which increased cash. On the balance sheet, “bank debt” increased from $0 to $10,000 and it was reflected as a source of cash. When the store repays the debt, it will be reflected as a use of cash in the financing activities section.

回顾 Bob's Market 的资产负债表,所有者权益账户在右侧。资产负债表显示,投资者投入了 15,000 美元现金来开展业务。这在资产负债表上显示为已发行的“普通股”,并且在现金流量表中也反映为现金来源。

Referring back to Bob’s Market’s balance sheet, the owners’ equity accounts are on the right side. The balance sheet shows that investors contributed $15,000 cash to start the business. That is shown on the balance sheet as “common stock” issued, and it is also reflected on the cash flow statement as a source of cash.

正如我们已经了解到的,所有者权益部分的另一个组成部分是留存收益(RE)。如前所述,当年内增加净收入以及向投资者支付股息时,RE 将会发生变化。鲍勃和他的父亲选择让公司“保留”其收益,从而继续为企业“融资”。因此,融资部分没有显示任何股息支付。如果所有者选择支付股息,这将显示为使用。

As we have already learned, the other component of the owners’ equity section is retained earnings (RE). As explained, there will be changes in RE when net income is added during the year and if dividends are paid out to investors. Bob and his father elected to continue to “finance” the business by having the company “retain” its earnings. The financing section, accordingly, does not show any dividend payments. If the owners elected to pay a dividend, it would have been shown as a use.

经过一年的运营,鲍勃比刚开始时多了 5,000 美元。有了他的现金流量表,他就能明白这是怎么回事了!

After a year of operations Bob had $5,000 more than when he started. With his cash flow statement he can understand how it happened!

 

 

一旦准备好,现金流量表意味着什么?

Once prepared, what does the cash flow statement mean?

退后一步,否则您可能会迷失在机制中。该现金流量表显示了当年现金的净变化。它出现在声明的底部。看一看。这听起来很简单,但与我共事的一些新晋注册会计师在努力准备报告的细节时从未真正理解这一事实。你做。现金变化发生在哪里对 MBA 来说非常重要。

Take a step back, or else you can get lost in the mechanics. This cash flow statement shows the net change in cash for the year. It appears at the bottom of the statement. Take a look. It sounds simple, but some newly minted CPAs I worked with never really understood that fact as they labored to prepare the report’s details. You do. Where the changes in cash took place is of real importance to MBAs.

 

 

     是一家看似盈利的公司,却必须大量借贷才能活下去?

     Was the company a seemingly profitable company, but must borrow heavily just to stay alive?

公司的运营是否浪费了现金,即使根据损益表它可能只是微不足道的盈利?

Did the company’s operations throw off cash, even though it may be just marginally profitable according to the income statement?

这些是资产负债表和损益表都无法告诉读者的重要问题的样本。这就是现金流量表存在的原因。

Those are samples of the important questions that neither the balance sheet nor the income statement can tell a reader. That is why the cash flow statement exists.

当公司健康时,经营活动会产生现金。该信息由根据营运资金变化调整后的净收入传递。这是经营活动部分的职能。

When a company is healthy, operating activities will generate cash. That message is delivered by the net income adjusted for changes in working capital. That is the operating activities section’s function.

公司是否需要对新设备或技术等固定资产进行大量投资?公司是否正在出售其资产以填补运营中永不满足的现金流失?此类信息位于投资活动部分。

Does the company require a great investment in fixed assets such as new equipment or technology? Is the company selling off its assets to fill an insatiable cash drain from operations? That type of information lies in the investment activities section.

垂死的企业通过蚕食其资产为其无利可图的业务提供资金来维持生计。泛美航空公司曾经是世界上最大的航空公司,但在 1991 年将其梦寐以求的欧洲航线出售给竞争对手以筹集现金后就倒闭了。泛美航空于 1992 年去世。

Dying businesses stay alive by cannibalizing their assets to fund their unprofitable operations. Pan American Airlines, once the largest airline in the world, withered in 1991 when it sold its coveted European routes to its competitors to raise cash. Pan Am died in 1992.

公司是否大量借贷或是否已向投资者寻求为其运营或投资活动提供资金?融资活动部分讲述了这个重要的故事。在 Bob 的案例中,他从银行借款并用自己的钱进行投资。

Did the company borrow heavily or has the company gone to investors to fund its operational or investing activities? The financing activities section tells that important story. In Bob’s case he borrowed from the bank and invested his own money.

无论现金的来源和用途如何,现金流量表都能很好地说明企业的健康状况。对于许多金融分析师来说,这是最重要的声明。

Whatever the sources and uses of cash, the statement of cash flows tells a great deal about a business’s health. To many financial analysts, it is the most important statement of all.

 

 

会计的大局

ACCOUNTING’S BIG PICTURE

知识渊博的人总能回到会计学的基本等式来理解构成公司任何财务报表的任何混乱数字:资产 = 负债 + 所有者权益。

A knowledgeable person can always get back to the fundamental equation of accounting to make sense of any jumble of numbers making up any of the financial statements of a company: Assets = Liabilities + Owners’ Equity.

现金流量表表明,当年现金余额的变化必须由资产、负债和所有者权益的变化引起。资产和负债的变化来自资产负债表。所有者权益变动是净利润变动的结果,在利润表中有详细说明。三种基本财务报表密不可分。

With the statement of cash flows it was demonstrated that the changes during the year in the cash balance had to result from changes in assets, liabilities, and owners’ equity. The assets and liabilities changes came from the balance sheet. The owners’ equity changes were the result of changes in net income, provided in detail by the income statement. The three basic financial statements are inextricably tied together.

基本的会计等式、资产负债表和当年所做的许多日记账分录中的每一个总是平衡的。该基本属性允许会计难题的任何部分的变化都可以通过其他部分的变化来解释。通过掌握财务报表相互关系的基本概念,您已经了解了会计的本质。恭喜!

The fundamental accounting equation, the balance sheet, and each of the many journal entries made during the year always balance. That fundamental property allows for changes in any piece of the accounting puzzle to be explained by changes in the other parts. By grasping this basic concept of the interrelationships of the financial statements, you have learned the essence of accounting. Congratulations!

 

 

使用比率阅读财务报表

READING THE FINANCIAL STATEMENTS USING RATIOS

了解会计师如何创建财务报表后,让我添加一些工具来解释它们:比率。财务报表中的绝对数字本身通常意义有限。真实信息可以在分析一个数字与另一个数字或同一行业中一家公司与另一家公司的关系时找到——使用比率。在杂货店游戏中,利润相对于销售额通常很低,因此杂货商必须大量销售才能获得真正的利润。一家珠宝店靠较慢的销售速度但每件商品的较高利润来生存。这就是为什么使用比率来比较行业内公司之间的绩效以及公司自身历史绩效的原因。

With an understanding of how accountants create their financial statements, let me add some tools to interpret them: ratios. Absolute numbers in a financial statement in and of themselves often are of limited significance. The real information can be found in an analysis of the relationship of one number to another or of one company to another in the same industry—using ratios. In the grocery game, profits are usually low in relation to sales, so grocers must sell in large volume to make any real profit. A jewelry store survives on slower-paced sales but higher profits per item. That is why ratios are used to compare performances among companies within an industry and against a company’s own historical performance.

比率主要分为四类:

There are four major categories of ratios:

 

 

流动性 措施:手头有多少可以转换成现金来支付账单?

Liquidity measures: How much is on hand that can be converted to cash to pay the bills?

资本化 措施:一家公司是否负债累累?它的投资者是否为公司提供资金?公司如何为自己筹资?

Capitalization measures: Is a company heavily burdened with debt? Are its investors financing the company? How is the company funding itself?

活动 措施:公司资产的部署有多积极?(MBA 部署资产,而不仅仅是使用它们。)

Activity measures: How actively are the firm’s assets being deployed? (MBAs deploy assets, rather than just use them.)

盈利能力 衡量:一家公司相对于使其盈利成为可能的资产和销售的盈利能力如何?

Profitability measures: How profitable is a company in relation to the assets and the sales that made its profits possible?

 

 

实际上有数百种可能的比率,但大多数都起源于上面列出的四个类别中的八个基本比率。使用 Bob 的财务报表,我计算了他的这八个运营比率,并将它们放在每个比率解释的下方。

There are literally hundreds of possible ratios, but most have their origin in eight basic ratios from the four categories listed above. Using Bob’s financial statements, I have calculated these eight ratios for his operation and have placed them below each of the ratio explanations.

 

 

流动性比率

LIQUIDITY RATIOS

1.流动比率=流动资产/流动负债

1. Current Ratio = Current Assets / Current Liabilities

公司可以轻松支付账单吗?比率大于 1 表示流动性。说明流动资产有可用于支付流动负债的回旋余地。

Can the company pay its bills comfortably? A ratio greater than 1 shows liquidity. It shows that there is leeway in the current assets available to pay for current liabilities.

图片

 

 

资本化比率

CAPITALIZATION RATIOS

2、财务杠杆=(总负债+所有者权益)/OE

2. Financial Leverage = (Total Liabilities + Owners’ Equity) / OE

图片

当一家公司承担的债务比例大于其所有者的投资额时,就被称为杠杆化。在一家盈利的公司中,通过使用更高水平的债务,回报会高得多,因为比率的分母中出现的金额较小。“相同”的收入除以较小的股本基础。大于 2 的比率表明债务的广泛使用。在讨论盈利比率时,我将更全面地解释杠杆。

When a company assumes a larger proportion of debt than the amount invested by its owners, it is said to be leveraged. In a profitable company, by using a higher level of debt, the return is much higher because a smaller amount appears in the denominator of the ratio. The “same” amount of earnings is divided by a smaller equity base. Ratios of greater than 2 show an extensive use of debt. I will explain leverage more fully when discussing the profitability ratios.

 

 

3.长期债务资本比=长期债务/(负债+ OE)

3. Long-Term Debt to Capital = Long-Term Debt / (Liabilities + OE)

图片

由于债务支付是必须支付的固定义务,而投资者的股息则不需要支付,因此债务水平是衡量公司风险的重要指标。大于 50% 的比率表明债务水平很高。根据公司现金流的时间和稳定性,50% 可被视为有风险。稳定的电力公司有可预测的销售额和现金流;因此,超过 50% 的比率是司空见惯的。华尔街的投资分析师认为这些债务水平是保守的。

Because debt payments are fixed obligations that must be paid while dividends to investors are not, the level of debt is an important measure of a company’s riskiness. A ratio of greater than 50 percent shows a high level of debt. Depending on the timing and stability of a firm’s cash flows, 50 percent could be considered risky. Stable electric utilities have predictable sales and cash flows; therefore, ratios over 50 percent are commonplace. Investment analysts on Wall Street consider those debt levels conservative.

 

 

活动比率

ACTIVITY RATIOS

4.每期资产周转率=销售额/总资产

4. Assets Turnover per Period = Sales / Total Assets

图片

该比率告诉读者公司如何积极使用其所有资产。可以用一组给定的资产产生更多销售额的公司被认为有效地管理了它的资产。比率因行业而异。三十六对于大多数行业来说已经是很高的资产周转率了,但是对于一家古董店来说,三的周转率可能已经算高了。独一无二的古董正等待合适的收藏家前来。在杂货贸易中,每年 36.6 周转是正常的,因为超市的货架库存大约每周都会售出。农产品、牛奶和卫生纸库存每周周转数次,而异国情调的香料需要更长的时间才能售出。

This ratio tells the reader how actively the firm uses all of its assets. The firm that can generate more sales with a given set of assets is said to have managed its assets efficiently. Ratios are industry-specific. Thirty-six is a high turnover of assets for most industries, but for an antique shop a turnover of three may be considered high. One-of-a-kind antiques sit waiting for the right collector to come along. In the grocery trade 36.6 turns per year is normal because the shelf inventory of a supermarket is sold about every week. The produce, milk, and toilet paper inventory turn over several times a week, while the exotic spices take much longer to sell.

 

 

5.每期库存周转率=销售成本/期间平均持有库存

5. Inventory Turns per Period = Cost of Goods Sold / Average Inventory Held During the Period

(计算“平均库存”的一种简单方法是将期初和期末库存余额相加,然后除以二。)

(A simple way to calculate “average inventory” is by adding the beginning and ending inventory balances, then dividing by two.)

图片

6.库存销售天数=期末库存/(销售成本/365)

6. Days Sales in Inventory = Ending Inventory / (Cost of Goods Sold / 365)

图片

这两个活动比率显示了公司库存的部署积极程度。存货是积尘还是一上架就被卖掉?在杂货贸易等高周转业务中,一年中有多次库存周转,而手头只有几天的库存。大多数杂货都是易腐烂的,需要经常购买。

These two activity ratios show how actively a company’s inventory is being deployed. Is inventory sitting around collecting dust or is it being sold as soon as it hits the shelf? In a high-turnover business, like the grocery trade, there are many turns of inventory during a year and only a few days of inventory on hand. Most grocery items are perishable and purchased frequently.

 

 

盈利比率

PROFITABILITY RATIOS

7. 销售回报率 (ROS) =净收入 / 销售额

7. Return on Sales (ROS) = Net Income / Sales

图片

“回报率”很容易计算,投资分析师经常使用它们。他们计算资产负债表和损益表几乎任何部分的回报。另一个常见的是资产回报率 (ROA)。

“Return” ratios are easy to calculate and investment analysts use them frequently. They calculate the return on just about any part of the balance sheet and income statement. Another common one is the return on assets (ROA).

 

 

8.股本回报率(ROE)=净收入/所有者权益

8. Return on Equity (ROE) = Net Income / Owners’ Equity

图片

债务和股权的组合会极大地影响比率。如果一家公司的债务水平很高,而股本很少,那么股本回报率 (ROE) 可能会受到极大影响。这就是所谓的财务杠杆,这是我之前在讨论资本化比率时提到的术语。为了说明这一点,Bob 和他的父亲本可以决定在 2012 年留下很少的公司股权。他们本可以将 2012 年的 30,000 美元净收入全部作为股息从公司取出,并借入资金以满足未来的现金需求. 如果发生这种情况,资产负债表将反映 40,000 美元(10,000 美元+ 30,000 美元)的长期债务余额和仅 15,000 美元(45,000 美元- 30,000 美元)的权益。由此产生的债务权益比率将从 7% 增加到 28%,股本回报率将从 67% 增加到 200%(30,000 美元/15,000 美元)。如图所示,所使用的财务杠杆会极大地影响比率。选择较低的股权水平可以将净资产收益率“杠杆化”到极高的水平。

The mix of debt and equity can dramatically affect the ratios. If a company has a high level of debt and a small amount of equity, the return on equity (ROE) can be tremendously affected. That is called financial leverage, the term that I mentioned before in discussing capitalization ratios. To illustrate the point, Bob and his father could have decided to leave very little equity in the company in 2012. They could have taken all of the $30,000 of net income made in 2012 out of the company as dividends and borrowed for their future cash needs. If that had happened, the balance sheet would have reflected a long-term debt balance of $40,000 ($10,000 + $30,000) and only $15,000 ($45,000 $30,000) in equity. The resulting debt to equity ratio would increase from 7 percent to 28 percent, and the return on equity would have increased from 67 percent to 200 percent ($30,000/$15,000). As shown, ratios can be greatly affected by the financial leverage used. The choice of a lower equity level can “leverage” the ROE to extremely high levels.

净资产收益率是被广泛接受的衡量成功的标准。如果管理层的目标是通过杠杆实现更高的盈利率,那么就会有风险成本。更高的债务水平需要更高的利息支付,如果运营不佳,公司可能无法偿还。2008年雷曼兄弟和华盛顿互惠银行的金融危机中的企业倒闭,都是管理层高杠杆冒着破产风险而亏损的案例。

ROE ratio is a widely accepted yardstick to measure success. If management’s goal is to achieve a higher profitability ratio through leverage, there is a risk cost. Higher debt levels require higher interest payments that a company may not be able to service if operations do poorly. The corporate failures in the financial meltdown of 2008 of Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual were cases in which management risked bankruptcy with high leverage and lost.

 

 

杜邦图

THE DU PONT CHART

学术界倾向于给简单的概念起大名。如果没有杜邦图表,您的 MBA 词汇就不完整。该图表显示了几个最重要的财务报表比率通过显示它们的组成部分是如何相互关联的。

Academics have a tendency to give imposing names to simple concepts. Your MBA vocabulary would not be complete without including the Du Pont Chart. The chart shows how several of the most important financial statement ratios are related to one another by displaying their components.

杜邦图

THE DU PONT CHART

图片

通过绘制比率之间的相互关系,可以看出一个比率的一个组成部分的变化会影响其他比率。这些比率共享相同的输入。例如,当总资产减少时,资产周转率和资产回报率都会增加,因为总资产作为分母包含在这两个比率的计算中。相反,总资产(等于总负债和所有者权益)的减少会降低该比率分子中使用的财务杠杆。

By charting the interrelationships among ratios, one can see that changes in a component of one ratio affect the other ratios. The ratios share the same inputs. For example, when Total Assets is reduced, both the Asset Turnover and Return on Assets ratios increase because Total Assets are included in the calculation of both of those ratios as a denominator. Conversely, a reduction of Total Assets (equal to total liabilities and owners’ equity) decreases Financial Leverage as it is used in that ratio’s numerator.

 

 

比率因行业而异

RATIOS ARE INDUSTRY-SPECIFIC

与所有其他比率一样,盈利能力因行业而异。每个行业都有一个利润水平,这取决于该行业的物理需求。钢铁制造商等重型制造商的资产回报率(ROA) 不到 10%。他们有大型钢厂和大量工厂设备。盈利的猎头公司等服务企业的 ROA 可能超过 100%。他们唯一需要的资产是现金、办公家具和客户应收账款。他们真正的资产是员工在护理和说服方面的才能,这是无法在资产负债表上量化的。

Profitability is, as in the case of all other ratios, industry-specific. Every industry has a profit level depending on the physical demands of the industry. Heavy manufacturers such as steel makers have a return on assets (ROA) of less than 10 percent. They have large steel mills and a great deal of factory equipment. Service businesses such as profitable headhunting firms may have ROAs over 100 percent. The only assets they need are cash, office furniture, and customer receivables. Their real asset is their staff’s talent for nursing and persuading, which cannot be quantified on the balance sheet.

盈利能力还取决于竞争程度。在杂货业,激烈的竞争使销售回报率保持在1% 的低水平。在 Bob 的第一年,他的回报率为 0.58%,低于行业平均水平。考虑到这是他的第一年,任何利润都应该受到表扬。

Profitability also depends on the level of competition. In the grocery business, intense competition keeps the return on sales to a low 1 percent. During Bob’s first year he had a .58 percent return, which was below the industry average. Considering that it was his first year, any profit should be commended.

财务报表的任何部分都可以通过某种比率与另一部分进行比较。任何计算器都可以用一个数除以另一个数。只有那些可以提供对企业绩效的一些洞察力的比率才有价值。当将一家公司的比率与同一行业的另一家公司的比率或该公司的历史业绩进行比较时,就会看到比率的真正价值。或者,可以通过比较它们的平均值来探索各个行业作为商机的“吸引力”。每个公司和行业都有自己有意义的关键运营统计数据。

Any part of the financial statements can be compared to another with a ratio of some sort. Any calculator can divide one number by another. Only those ratios that can provide some insight into a business’s performance are valuable. The true value of ratios is seen when one firm’s ratios are compared to those of another in the same industry, or to that firm’s historical performance. Alternatively the “attractiveness” of various industries as business opportunities may be explored by comparing their averages. Each firm and industry has its own key operating statistics that are meaningful.

对于所有这些比率的特定行业参考,RMA 发布了其年度报表研究。这本有价值的参考书在大多数图书馆都可以找到,包括超过三百家制造商、批发商、零售商、服务、承包商和金融公司的财务和运营比率。

For industry-specific references on all these ratios, RMA publishes its Annual Statement Studies. This valuable reference book, available in most libraries, includes financial and operating ratios for over three hundred manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers, services, contractors, and finance companies.

 

 

管理会计

MANAGERIAL ACCOUNTING

管理会计与比率分析一样,使用会计数据来管理和分析运营。管理会计侧重于运营。管理会计不使用比率,而是使用标准、预算差异来经营业务并解释经营结果。管理会计的目的是对公司一段时间内的活动进行预算,然后解释为什么实际结果与预测“不同”。在大多数制造环境中,月度预算和分析是常态,以便管理层可以及时采取行动。

Managerial accounting, like ratio analysis, uses accounting data to manage and analyze operations. Managerial accounting focuses on operations. Instead of ratios, managerial accounting uses standards, budgets, and variances to run the business and explain operational results. The object of managerial accounting is to budget a company’s activities for a period of time, and then to explain why the actual results “varied” from the projections. In most manufacturing settings, monthly budgeting and analysis are the norm so that management can take timely action.

要建立衡量绩效的标准,工厂团队必须制定比较标准。这需要的不仅仅是会计师的投入。在汽车制造中,生产经理确定他或她认为应该是材料、人工和其他费用的标准成本。工业工程师通过进行研究来帮助获取数据。工厂经理与销售经理合作制定生产量预算以满足预测需求并保持装配线效率。销售经理为其产品设定标准价格和数量。使用这些标准作为衡量标准,管理会计师分析实际结果以解释差异根据公司团队制定的预算和标准。完成后,方差分析会突出管理决策制定的正面或负面结果的来源。

To establish a yardstick for measuring performance, the factory team must set standards for comparison. This requires the input from more than just the accountants. In automobile manufacturing, the production manager establishes what he or she believes should be the standard costs for materials, labor, and other expenses. Industrial engineers help by performing studies to obtain the data. Factory managers work with sales managers to budget production volumes to meet forecasted demand and also to maintain assembly line efficiency. Sales managers set standard prices and quantities for their products. Using those standards as a yardstick, managerial accountants analyze actual results to explain the variances from those budgets and standards the company’s team developed. Once completed, variance analysis highlights the source of positive or negative results for management decision making.

 

 

价格和数量差异

PRICE AND VOLUME VARIANCES

有两种基本类型的差异,价格差异和数量差异。与财务报表比率一样,它们源自简单的数学公式。

There are two basic types of variances, price and volume variances. As with financial statement ratios, they are derived from simple mathematical formulas.

 

 

销售价格差异。价格差异告诉经理预算销售收入和实际销售收入之间的差异有多少是由于销售价格变化引起的。

Sales Price Variances. The price variance tells the manager how much of the difference between budgeted sales revenue and actual sales revenues is due to changes in sales price changes.

 

 

(实际销售价格-标准销售价格)×(实际销售数量)=销售价格差异

(Actual Sales Price Standard Sales Price) × (Actual Quantity Sold) = Sales Price Variance

 

 

销售量差异。体积差异将不同单位体积的美元效应与假设价格没有变化的预算相隔离。

Sales Volume Variances. The volume variance isolates the dollar effect of a different unit volume from what was budgeted assuming no price changes.

 

 

(标准销售价格)×(实际销售数量-标准销售数量)=销售量差异

(Standard Sales Price) × (Actual Quantity Sold Standard Quantity Sold) = Sales Volume Variance

举一个假设的例子,克莱斯勒计划在 2012 年 7 月以每辆 30,000 美元的价格出售 10,000 辆道奇 Caravan 小型货车,总销售额为 3 亿美元。8 月份,分析师收到的会计数据显示 7 月份的实际销售额为 5.8 亿美元。由于 1,000 美元的回扣计划,道奇实际上以 29,000 美元的平均价格售出了 20,000 辆 Caravans。销售额的总差异为 2.8 亿美元:(20,000 × 29,000 美元) (10,000 × 30,000 美元)。那是怎么发生的?差异说明了这个故事。

Using a hypothetical example, Chrysler planned to sell 10,000 Dodge Caravan minivans in July 2012 at a price of $30,000 each for a total of $300 million in sales. In August the analyst received accounting data showing that sales were actually $580 million in July. Dodge actually sold 20,000 Caravans at an average price of $29,000 due to a $1,000 rebate program. The total variance of sales was $280 million: (20,000 × $29,000) (10,000 × $30,000). How did that occur? Variances told the story.

仅由价格引起的差异,即价格差异,为负 2000 万美元((29,000美元- 30,000 美元)× 20,000 单位)。但由于销售量比计划多 10,000 件,因此销量差异为正 3 亿美元((20,000 10,000 件)× 30,000 美元)。两个方差 ( $20 + $300 = + $280) 等于总销售预算的总方差 ($580 $300 = +280 美元)。方差分析告诉负责Caravan车型的克莱斯勒高管,销量的整体增长是由于销量增加,而不是价格上涨。相反,由于回扣导致的小幅负价格差异被更强劲的销量所弥补。当您将价格和数量差异加在一起时,它们等于预算中的“总”月销售差异。方差分析使 Dodge 高管能够解释为什么他的结果达到了他部门的目标。

The variance solely due to price, the price variance, was a negative $20 million (($29,000 $30,000) × 20,000 units). But because 10,000 more units were sold than planned, the volume variance was positive $300 million ((20,000 10,000 units) × $30,000). The two variances ($20 + $300 = +$280) equaled the total variance from the total sales budget ($580 $300 = +$280). The variance analysis told the Chrysler executive in charge of the Caravan model that the overall increase in sales was due to a larger sales volume, rather than to a price increase. Conversely, the small negative price variance due to a rebate was more than made up for by a stronger sales volume. When you add together the price and the volume variances, they equal the “total” monthly sales variance from budget. The variance analysis enabled the Dodge executive to explain why his results hit his division’s targets.

 

 

购买价格、效率和数量差异

PURCHASE PRICE, EFFICIENCY, AND VOLUME VARIANCES

使用相同的两个基本公式,销售价格销售量差异,生产部门也计算差异以进行管理控制。

Using the same two basic formulas, sales price and sales volume variances, production departments also calculate variances for management control.

生产材料的采购和使用存在采购价格差异。

Purchases and usage of production materials have purchase price variances.

 

 

采购价格差异=(标准价格-实际价格)×(实际采购或使用数量)

Purchase Price Variance = (Standard Price Actual Price) × (Actual Quantity Purchased or Used)

用于生产产品的材料和劳动力的数量也可能与标准数量不同。与销量差异类似,这些差异称为效率差异。例如,制鞋工人可以通过使用比计划更多的皮革来提高效率。底特律装配线上依赖化学品的工人可能会花费比计划更多的工时来生产他们的汽车。

The amount of materials and labor used to produce products may also differ from the standard amount. Similar to sales volume variances, these differences are called efficiency variances. Shoe workers, for example, can be more efficient by using more leather from a hide than planned. Chemically dependent workers on the assembly line in Detroit could take more labor hours than planned to produce their cars.

 

 

材料或人工效率差异=(标准使用数量-实际使用数量)×(材料或人工标准成本)

Material or Labor Efficiency Variance = (Standard Use Quantity Actual Usage Quantity) × (Standard Cost of Material or Labor)

再次以大篷车为例,生产工头在 7 月份制定了预算,制造的每辆大篷车应使用标准的 8 加仑油漆,每加仑成本为 10 美元。生产的 20,000 辆小型货车实际上需要 7 加仑,每加仑 12 美元的成本。会计师为道奇执行官计算了以下差异:

Using the Caravan again as a hyphothetical example, the production foreman had budgeted in July that each Caravan made should use a standard 8 gallons of paint at a cost of $10 per gallon. It actually took 7 gallons at a cost of $12 per gallon for the 20,000 minivans that were produced. The accountant calculated the following variances for the Dodge executive:

 

 

材料价格差异= ($10 - $12 每加仑价格) × (20,000 件× 7 加仑) = - $280,000 负油漆价格差异

Material Price Variance = ($10 $12 price per gallon) × (20,000 units × 7 gal.) = $280,000 negative paint price variance

这是每加仑比计划支付更多费用的结果。道奇的高管不必挠头,而是可以利用这些信息来质问他的采购代理,并要求他在下个月谈判达成更好的交易。

This was the effect of paying more per gallon than planned. Instead of scratching his head, the Dodge executive could use this information to confront his purchasing agent and demand that he negotiate a better deal the following month.

 

 

材料效率方差= (8 加仑- 7 加仑) × (20,000 单位) × 10 美元每加仑= 200,000 美元正方差

Material Efficiency Variance = (8 gal. 7 gal.) × (20,000 units) × $10 per gallon = $200,000 positive variance

这是使用比计划少的油漆的效果。

This was the effect of using less paint than planned.

与比率一样,可以编造出无数的差异,让会计分析师部门从现在一直忙到下个世纪。基本上只有两种类型的差异:价格差异和数量差异。当您听到管理会计这个词时,请想想“方差”。

As with ratios, there are an infinite number of variances that can be cooked up to keep a department of accounting analysts busy from now until the next century. There are basically only two types of variances: price and volume variances. When you hear the words managerial accounting, think “variances.”

 

 

成本核算和基于活动的成本核算

COST ACCOUNTING AND ACTIVITY-BASED COSTING

成本会计是确定生产商品和服务成本的相对简单的过程。它与管理会计密切相关,因为它的所有“标准”都基于成本会计师收集的数据。对于制成品,直接人工和直接材料相对容易分配到产品成本中。但是,分配开销要困难得多。更重要的是,如果运营不当,它可能会错误地确定个别产品和公司部门的盈利能力。管理费用必须根据管理费用的实际使用情况分配;因此,它被称为基于活动的成本核算(美国广播公司)。应根据创建产品并将产品交付给客户所需的费用来分配间接费用。过去,管理费用相对于材料和人工成本来说是一个相对较小的组成部分,但如今电话、账单、顾问和计算机系统等费用是巨大的。

Cost accounting is the relatively straightforward process of determining the cost of producing goods and services. It is closely associated with managerial accounting, as all its “standards” are based on the data gathered by cost accountants. With manufactured goods, direct labor and direct materials are relatively simple to allocate to the cost of a product. However, allocating overhead is much more difficult. More important, if not done properly, it may falsely determine profitability of individual products and divisions of companies. Overhead must be allocated based on the actual usage of the overhead expenses; hence, it is called activity-based costing (ABC). Overhead should be allocated based on what it takes to create and deliver the product to the customer. In the past, overhead expenses were a relatively minor component in relation to materials and labor costs, but today expenses such as telephone, billing, consultants, and computer systems are huge.

例如,如果一家公司的高收入部门向少数几个订单很少的供应商销售,那么它应该比一个有很多小客户多次订购的低销售额部门分配更少的计费部门成本。年。如果会计师根据销售额而不是交易量进行分配,利润图就会被扭曲。当一种产品的制造过程高度自动化而另一种产品的制造过程不是高度自动化时,基于直接工时分配计算机系统费用会产生误导。公司中经常发生的事情是,脱离业务的会计师任意或机械地分配管理费用。这扭曲了经理人生死存亡的财务结果。

For example, if a high-revenue division of a company makes sales to a few vendors with few orders, it should be allocated less of the cost of the billing department’s cost than a lower-sales division that has many small customers ordering many times a year. If accountants allocate based on sales, not volume of transactions, the profit picture would be distorted. When a manufacturing process of a product is highly automated and that of another product is not, allocation of computer system expense based on direct labor hours would be misleading. What often happens in a company is that accountants, detached from the business, arbitrarily or mechanically allocate overhead expenses. That distorts the financial results that managers live or die by. Entire product lines and divisions can be shut down and or outsourced because of these relatively “unimportant” allocation decisions that neglect their ABC’s.

 

 

持怀疑态度的会计信息消费者

THE SKEPTICAL ACCOUNTING-INFORMATION CONSUMER

正如“道德”一章所述,2002 年的萨班斯-奥克斯利法案试图让会计师更加诚实。作为为期十天的 MBA,您应该了解会计师“伪造账本”的主要方式。当发生大的欺诈或破产时,“法务”会计师试图发现事情是如何出错的,并经常在以下方面发现问题:

As described in the “Ethics” chapter, the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 tried to make accountants more honest. As a Ten-Day MBA you should be aware of the major ways that accountants can “cook the books.” When big frauds or bankruptcies occur, “forensic” accountants try to discover how things went wrong and often find the problem in following areas:

 

 

会计师错报收益的十种方式

Ten Ways Accountants Can Misstate Earnings

1. 将费用错误分类为资产。WorldCom 将其购买本地电话接入的普通成本归类为对其网络的投资。

1. Misclassify expenses as assets. WorldCom classified its ordinary cost of purchasing local phone access as an investment in their network.

2. 低估退货、折扣和降价的销售补贴。低估配额会增加利润。

2. Underestimate sales allowances for returns, discounts, and markdowns. Underestimating allowances raises profits.

3. 低估赊销的坏账准备。如果你低估了坏账费用的准备金,利润就会增加。

3. Underestimate bad-debt allowances on sales made on credit. If you underestimate the allowance for bad-debt expense, profits are increased.

4. 创造表外负债。资产负债表外的安然“特殊目的实体”创造了数十亿美元的负债,导致公司在 2002 年破产。

4. Create off-balance-sheet liabilities. Enron’s “special purpose entities” that were off the balance sheet created billions in liabilities that caused the company’s bankruptcy in 2002.

5. 确认虚幻收入。Qwest Communications 确认销售光纤网络使用的收入为 11 亿美元,这取决于从其他电信公司购买光纤服务。这两笔交易从未真正发生过,但双方都声称收入和利润。

5. Recognize phantom revenues. Qwest Communications recognized $1.1 billion in revenues for selling fiber-network use that was contingent on purchasing fiber services from other telecommunications firms. Both transactions never actually occurred, but both parties claimed revenues and the profits.

6.资产折旧太慢。1998 年,Waste Management 被发现延长其垃圾填埋场的折旧寿命,并少报了 35 亿美元的年度折旧费用。

6. Depreciate assets too slowly. Waste Management was caught in 1998 stretching out the depreciable lives of its landfills and underreported by $3.5 billion its annual depreciation expense.

7.修改库存调整。公司可能会低估有多少存货将被淘汰。减少过时费用会增加利润。

7. Modify adjustments to inventory. A company can underestimate how much inventory will become obsolete. Reducing obsolescence expense increases profits.

8. 预测不寻常的收益或损失。通过低估重组成本或高估资产出售收益,会计师可以夸大利润。在某些情况下,这些项目在损益表中是分开的,可能不会影响“营业收入”。

8. Forecast unusual gains or losses. By underestimating the cost of restructuring or overestimating the proceeds from assets sales, an accountant can inflate profits. Under certain circumstances these items are segregated in the income statement and may not affect “operating earnings.”

9. 通过高估未来支出来创建特别储备,并通过随后向下修正这些估计来增加利润。使用上述相同的调整来提高利润,公司可以高估费用津贴以在利润高时抑制利润。这创造了一个“饼干罐”储备,可以在利润下降时打开,以“平滑”逐年的收入波动。当公司需要额外利润时,会计师会下调之前的费用估算并记录利润。

9. Create special reserves by overestimating future expenses and boost profits by revising those estimates downward later. Using the same adjustments referred to above to boost profits, a company can overestimate expense allowances to dampen profits when profits are high. This creates a “cookie jar” reserve to open when profits sag to “smooth” the fluctuations in earnings year to year. When companies need extra profits, accountants revise the previous expense estimates downward and record profits.

10. 操纵与关键高管奖金薪酬挂钩的绩效衡量标准。根据奖金的计算方式,与财务会计师勾结的高管可以操纵财务数据以产生不劳而获的奖金,从而减少实际净收入。

10. Manipulate measures of performance that are tied to key executive bonus compensation. Depending on how bonuses are calculated, executives in collusion with financial accountants can manipulate the financial data to generate unearned bonuses and therefore reduce actual net income.

 

 

会计概览

ACCOUNTING OVERVIEW

我希望你在阅读本章时没有费力,但在几页中,我试图从我的注册会计师背景和 MBA 课程中向你介绍会计的基本知识。如果本章的内容对你来说是全新的,很可能你还没有完全理解它。你应该记得:

I hope you have not struggled too hard through this chapter, but in a few pages I have tried to give you the essentials of accounting from both my CPA background and the MBA curriculum. If the material in this chapter was totally new for you, most probably you have not completely absorbed it. You should have remembered that:

  • 资产 =负债+所有者权益
  • Assets = Liabilities + Owners’ Equity
  • 财务报表由三张基本且相互依存的报表组成:资产负债表、损益表和现金流量表。
  • There are three basic and interdependent financial statements: balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement.
  • 会计记录和报表总是 平衡的。
  • Accounting records and statements always balance.
  • 这些陈述可以通过使用比率来解释。
  • The statements can be interpreted by using ratios.
  • 可以使用差异分析和管理运营结果。
  • Operating results can be analyzed and managed using variances.

简而言之,这就是会计游戏。在MBA学校,会计是文科生最恐惧的话题。本章以简洁明了的形式向您介绍了让他们熬夜的原因。

That’s the accounting game in a nutshell. At MBA school, accounting struck the most fear in the hearts of the liberal arts undergraduates. This chapter has given you, in a tidy predigested form, what kept them up late at night.

 

 

关键会计要点

KEY ACCOUNTING TAKEAWAYS

现金制会计——仅当现金易手时才记录交易的方法

Cash Basis Accounting—The method of recording transactions only when cash changes hands

权责发生制会计——记录与收入和支出相匹配的交易的方法,而不考虑现金流量的变动

Accrual Basis Accounting—The method of recording transactions that matches revenues and expenses regardless of cash flow movements

资产负债表——列出公司在某个时间点拥有和欠下的资产

The Balance Sheet—The listing of what a company owns and owes at a point in time

会计基本等式——资产=负债+所有者权益

The Fundamental Accounting Equation—Assets = Liabilities + Owners’ Equity

净营运资本——短期资产减去短期负债

Net Working Capital—Short-term assets less short-term liabilities

损益表——一段时间内产生利润的活动的总结

The Income Statement—The summary of profit-generating activities during a period of time

毛利率——收入减去所售商品的直接成本

Gross Margin—Revenues less the direct cost of goods sold

现金流量表——公司在一段时间内如何产生和使用其现金的总结

The Statement of Cash Flows—The summary of how a company generates and uses its cash during a period of time

折旧——在其使用寿命内分配的设备使用成本

Depreciation—The cost of using equipment allocated over its useful life

财务报表分析的八个基本比率——一种分析报表并将其与行业标准进行比较的方法

The Eight Basic Ratios for Financial Statement Analysis—A method of analyzing statements and comparing them to industry standards

价格和数量差异——一种通过将价格和数量差异的影响与预算金额隔离开来解释运营结果的方法

Price and Volume Variances—A method of explaining operational results by isolating the effects of price and volume differences from budgeted amounts

基于活动的成本核算 (ABC) — 根据实际使用情况分配管理费用的方法,而不是任意衡量

Activity-Based Costing (ABC)—The method of allocating overhead expenses based on actual usage, not on arbitrary measure

第四天

Day 4

组织行为学

ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR

组织行为主题

Organizational Behavior Topics

问题解决模型

Problem-Solving Model

心理学课

Psychology Lesson

动机

Motivation

领导

Leadership

创造力

Creativity

在职办公程序

On-the-Job Office Procedure

力量

Power

组织模式和结构

The Organizational Model and Structures

系统论

Systems Theory

组织进化与革命

Organizational Evolution and Revolution

抗拒变革

Resistance to Change

新 MBA 毕业生:我有答案!我的 Excel 电子表格显示我们应该按地理区域而不是按产品重组公司。通过削减不必要的员工和差旅,我们每年至少可以节省 300 万美元。我们在课堂讨论中假设在 Brandon Lee 公司实施了一个类似的计划。它工作得很好。

NEW MBA GRADUATE: I have the answer! My Excel spreadsheet says that we should reorganize the company by geographic region rather than by product. We could save at least three million dollars a year by cutting unnecessary staff and travel. We hypothetically implemented a similar plan at the Brandon Lee Company in a class discussion. It worked real well.

老板:听起来不错。你已经在公司工作了七个月,你想要进行彻底的重组。我假设您已经收集了一份冗余员工名册?

BOSS: Sounds great. You’ve been with the company seven months and you want to do a radical reorganization. I assume you already assembled a roster of redundant employees?

新 MBA 毕业生:嗯,我还没有考虑那么

NEW MBA GRADUATE: Well, I’ve not thought it through that far yet.

组织行为 ( OB ) 课程试图教授 MBA 如何应对工作场所的人类挑战。定量技能可能在课堂上提供神奇的理论药丸,但 OB 试图向年轻的 MBA Turks 灌输人类的敏感性,以便在现实世界中应用他们的 MBA 技能。

Organizational Behavior (OB) classes attempt to teach MBAs how to deal with the human challenges in the workplace. Quantitative skills may provide the magic theoretical pill in the classroom, but OB tries to instill in young MBA Turks the human sensitivity to apply their MBA skills in the real world.

许多组织理论与您在当地 B. Dalton 或 Waldenbooks 上有关自我意识和敏感性训练的书籍中找到的理论并无二致。之所以如此相似,是因为其中许多书都是由提出 MBA 课程中出现的学术理论的同一位教授撰写的。不同之处在于,关于“​​新”企业复兴理论或“一秒钟经理”的流行书籍比出现在不起眼的学术期刊上的文章赚的钱更多。

Many organizational theories are not unlike what you can find in books about self-awareness and sensitivity training at the local B. Dalton or Waldenbooks. The reason for the similarity is that many of those books are written by the same professors who propound the academic theories that appear in MBA curricula. The difference is that faddish books about the “new” corporate rejuvenation theory or the “one-second manager” make more money than articles that appear in obscure academic journals.

组织行为学这个“敏感”的学科,往往是MBA们大显身手的地方。当看似思想开放的学生试图处理手头的案件时,性别歧视、偏见和贪婪在课堂上露出丑陋的头脑。无论如何,这些课程对过度劳累的 MBA 来说是一种受欢迎的解脱。无需复杂的定量分析或大量阅读。与其他 MBA 科目一样,了解词汇并在适当的时候使用它对建立工作信誉大有帮助。

Organizational behavior, the “touchy-feely” subject, is often where MBAs show their true colors. Sexism, prejudice, and greed rear their ugly heads in classes when seemingly open-minded students attempt to cope with the cases at hand. Regardless, the classes are a welcome relief to overworked MBAs. There is no need for intricate quantitative analysis or extensive reading. As with other MBA subjects, knowing the vocabulary and using it at the right moments goes a long way in establishing credibility on the job.

OB 课程中教授的内容如果被内化,很可能是对 MBA 职业生涯影响最大的课程。没有人际交往能力,MBA 配备了电动工具,但没有电线来使用它们。

What is taught in the OB classes, if internalized, are the lessons that well may be the most influential in the careers of MBAs. Without people skills, MBAs are equipped with the power tools but are without the electric cord to use them.

 

 

OB 问题解决模型

THE OB PROBLEM-SOLVING MODEL

正如市场营销为营销战略制定提供了七个步骤一样,OB 提供了解决组织问题的三步技术。

Just as marketing offers seven steps to marketing strategy development, OB provides a three-step technique to solve organizational problems.

 

 

问题定义

Problem Definition

分析

Analysis

行动计划

Action Planning

 

 

问题定义

PROBLEM DEFINITION

解决组织问题的第一步是了解困难的根源。真正的问题往往被症状所掩盖。人们很容易被误导去解决症状而不是解决问题的原因。除非解决了原因,否则无疑会出现新的头痛。MBA 学习了几种分析技术,以帮助排除问题的根源。

The first step to solving an organizational problem is to know the source of the difficulty. Real problems are often masked by symptoms. It is easy to be misled into solving the symptoms instead of their cause. Unless the cause is dealt with, fresh headaches will undoubtedly arise. MBAs are taught several analytical techniques to aid in flushing out the sources of trouble.

 

 

想要有差距。当经理认为“应该”发生的事情与“实际”发生的事情之间存在差距或“偏差”时,就会出现问题。定义问题需要从所有参与者的角度来看情况,并概述他们想要得到的差距。

Want Got Gaps. There is a problem when a gap or “deviation” exists between what a manager thinks “ought” to be occurring and what is “actually” occurring. Defining the problem entails viewing situations from the perspectives of all the participants and outlining their Want Got Gaps.

在引入一项关键的新计算机技术失败后,一家大型服务组织聘请了一位新副总裁 Hank Helpful 来领导计算机部门摆脱困境。在他看来,问题是由部门间的竞争引起的。他觉得计算机部门是孤立的,而且总是与公司的其他部门不和。汉克看到的差距如下:

In the wake of a failure to introduce a critical new computer technology, a large service organization hired a new vice president, Hank Helpful, to lead the computer department out of its trouble. In his judgment the problem was caused by interdepartmental rivalries. He felt that the computer department was isolated and always at odds with the rest of the company. Hank saw the gap as follows:

 

 

我想要 → 差距 ← 我得到

I Want → Gap ← I Got

 

 

部门间合作 → 差距 ← 孤立的部门孤岛

Interdepartmental Cooperation → Gap ← Isolated Departmental Islands

 

 

副总裁认为还存在其他差距。计算机部门认为它缺乏公司运营部门的尊重。部门里的人觉得他们被当作二等公民对待。这两种看法都是正确的。但其他销售和运营部门也有自己的差距。他们希望以负担得起的成本获得及时的计算机服务。

The VP felt that other gaps existed as well. The computer department believed it lacked the respect of the operational arm of the company. The people in the department felt that they were being treated as second-class citizens. Both perceptions were true. But the other sales and operating departments had their own gaps. They wanted timely computer services at an affordable cost.

在许多情况下,组织问题不太容易诊断。管理人员通常不确切知道差距是什么。有差距吗?经理的看法可能会掩盖“实际”发生的事情。这通常是麻烦的首要原因。

In many instances, organizational problems are less easily diagnosed. Often managers do not know exactly what the gap is. Is there a gap at all? A manager’s perceptions can cloud what is “actually” happening. That is often the cause of trouble in the first place.

 

 

问题的程度。当您知道存在哪些差距时,了解它们影响组织的方式就很重要了。问题可以通过三种方式影响公司:

The Level of Problems. When you know what gaps exist, it is then important to understand the ways in which they affect the organization. Problems can affect a company in three ways:

  • 在某些人内部或之间
  • Within or between certain people
  • 组内或组间
  • Within or between groups
  • 在整个组织内
  • Within the whole organization

在上述计算机部门的案例中,问题存在于所有这三个级别。必须解决每个级别才能成功“解决”它。人与人之间的难受发生在个人层面。部门间的争吵是一个群体间的问题。该公司未能采用有竞争力的新技术发生在组织层面。

In the case of the computer department described above, the problem existed at all three of these levels. Each level had to be addressed to successfully “solve” it. The hard feelings between individuals occurred at a personal level. The interdepartmental squabbling was an intergroup problem. The company’s failure to adopt competitive new technologies occurred at the organizational level.

 

 

来源问题和因果链。一个有效的 MBA 的目标是找到最重要的问题并首先解决这些问题。这些被称为源问题。消除源头,消除症状。来源问题,例如对计算机部门缺乏尊重,导致了许多其他问题。

Source Problems and Causal Chains. The goal of an effective MBA is to find the most important problems and solve those first. Those are called the source problems. Eliminate the source, eliminate the symptoms. Source problems, such as the lack of respect for the computer department, caused a multitude of other problems.

用于找出问题源头的图形化方法是绘制因果链。使用因果链,公司的部门间问题如下所示:

A graphical method used to get at source problems is to draw a causal chain. Using a causal chain, the company’s interdepartmental problem would look like this:

 

 

贡献问题 → 源问题 → 业务问题

Contributing Problems → Source Problem → Business Problem

 

 

缺乏互动性格差异→缺乏对技术人员的尊重→项目失败

Lack of Interaction Personality Differences → Lack of Respect for Techies → Project Failures

 

 

分析

ANALYSIS

在确定差距并使用因果链之后,MBA 被教导将问题与其原因联系起来。除了绘制因果链之外,在此分析步骤中,您还尝试了解原因。它们为什么存在?哪些环境因素起作用?通过提出这些类型的问题,您可以开始面对哪些原因可以通过管理措施得到纠正。如果一个问题无法克服,则必须尝试不同的解决方案。在上面的例子中,解雇不合作的人是副总裁的一个选择。敏感性培训和部门间讨论是其他可能性。与营销计划一样,有许多可能的行动途径可用于成功解决问题。

After defining the gaps and using causal chains, the MBA is taught to link the problems to their causes. In addition to drawing causal chains, during this analytical step you try to understand the causes. Why do they exist? What environmental factors play a role? By asking these types of questions you can begin to confront which causes can be corrected through management action. If one problem is insurmountable, different solutions have to be tried. In the example above, firing uncooperative people was an option for the vice president. Sensitivity training and interdepartmental discussions were other possibilities. As in a marketing plan, there are many possible avenues for action available to achieve a successful resolution to a problem.

 

 

行动计划

ACTION PLANNING

MBA 被教导要果断和积极主动——这是 MBA 经常使用的形容词。经过全面分析后,MBA 应该能够制定计划。该行动计划有六个重要步骤。

MBAs are taught to be decisive and proactive—a frequently used MBA adjective. After a thorough analysis, MBAs should be able to formulate a plan. The action plan has six important steps.

 

 

1. 设定具体目标。

1. Set specific goals.

2. 定义活动、所需资源、责任。

2. Define activities, resources needed, responsibilities.

3. 设定行动时间表。

3. Set a timetable for action.

4. 预测结果,制定应急措施。

4. Forecast outcomes, develop contingencies.

5.按时序制定详细的行动计划。

5. Formulate a detailed plan of action in time sequence.

6.根据第一步的目标实施、督促执行、评价。

6. Implement, supervise execution, and evaluate based on goals in step one.

可以想象,解决 MBA 风格的问题并不简单。这需要时间和精力。要添加到您的 MBA 词汇表中,您应该将可能的运营菜单称为运营杆。这听起来很有力量和进步。行动杠杆可以是奖励、控制或计划系统。

As you can imagine, solving problems MBA-style is not simple. It requires time and effort. To add to your MBA vocabulary, you should refer to your menu of possible actions as action levers. This sounds forceful and progressive. An action lever may be a reward, a control, or a planning system.

OB 背后的想法是训练 MBA 避免战术错误,因为他们没有考虑到相关人员。凭借应对挑战的框架,MBA 课程向学生灌输当今的理论和方法,以便他们可以使用它们。

The idea behind OB is to train MBAs to avoid tactical errors because they failed to take into consideration the people involved. With a framework to tackle challenges, the MBA curriculum inculcates in its students the theories and methods of the day so that they can use them.

 

 

个人和组织层面的 OB 主题

INDIVIDUAL AND ORGANIZATIONAL LEVEL OB TOPICS

前面的讨论涵盖了用于分析问题和实施解决方案的框架。接下来的部分涉及为该过程提供背景的主题。MBA 课程从逻辑上讲是从处理个人的理论和主题开始,然后构建更大的组织问题,随着更多人的加入,这些问题变得越来越复杂。在此过程中,学生被要求运用他们新获得的技能来分析和规划解决方案,以应对日益复杂和具有挑战性的案例情况。

The previous discussion covered the frameworks used to analyze a problem and implement a solution. The next sections deal with the topics that provide the background for that process. The MBA curriculum logically starts with the theories and topics that deal with the individual, then builds to larger organizational issues that become progressively complex with the addition of more people. Along the way, students are asked to apply their newly acquired skills to analyze and plan solutions to increasingly complex and challenging case situations.

 

 

MBA 心理学课:APCFB 模型

THE MBA PSYCHOLOGY LESSON: THE APCFB MODEL

为了深入了解人们在工作中的行为方式的原因,MBA 课程包括此处所示的某种形式的APCFB 模型。该模型试图解释将外部事件与员工行为联系起来的认知过程。假设会影响人们的看法。这些看法会影响结论。这些结论促使人们产生感情。最终,这些感受会驱动管理者观察到的行为。通过尝试理解这个过程,MBA 可能有机会影响他们自己和同事的积极行为。该模型如下所示。

In the effort to gain an insight into why people act the way they do at work, the MBA curriculum includes some form of the APCFB model pictured here. This model attempts to explain the cognitive process of linking external events to employee behavior. Assumptions affect the perceptions people have. Those perceptions affect the conclusions. And those conclusions prompt feelings. Ultimately those feelings drive behaviors that managers observe. By trying to understand this process, MBAs may have a chance to influence positive behaviors in themselves as well as in their coworkers. The model looks like that below.

 

 

APCFB 心理学模型

THE APCFB PSYCHOLOGY MODEL

图片

“为什么人们会按照他们的方式行事”,案例 UVA-OB-183,图 5。 版权所有 © 1986 达顿商学院基金会,弗吉尼亚州夏洛茨维尔。

“Why People Behave the Way They Do,” Case UVA-OB-183, Figure 5. Copyright © 1986 by the Darden Graduate Business School Foundation, Charlottesville, Virginia.

 

 

有了分析工具,MBA 们就会相信他们可以理解任何事情。然而,人们内部的混杂力量阻碍了完美的沟通和理解。我们都通过过滤器看到,这些过滤器通常会阻止我们准确地感知事件。过滤器还会阻止我们按照自己的真实愿望行事。我们都有内部防御机制,可以作为额外的过滤器来保护我们免受心理伤害。它们还阻止对其他人进行准确的心理解读。例如,如果一个没有安全感的主管对数字的能力很差,那么作为防御,他可能会挑剔分析师的技术演示。这将帮助他避免面对自己在数字方面的无能。

Given an analytical tool, MBAs are made to believe that they can understand anything. However, confounding forces within people prevent perfect communication and understanding. We all see through filters that often prevent us from perceiving events accurately. Filters also prevent us from acting out our true desires. We all have internal defense mechanisms that act as additional filters to protect us from psychological damage. They also prevent an accurate psychological reading of other people. For example, if an insecure supervisor has a poor aptitude for numbers, then by way of defense, he may find fault with an analyst’s technical presentation. That would help him avoid confronting his own ineptitude with numbers.

MBA 有机会影响假设,即我们对世界、其他人或我们自己应该应该成为的样子所持有的信念。这些假设构成了我们的价值体系。按照易于访问的顺序列出,假设包括:

MBAs have a chance to affect assumptions, the beliefs we hold about the way the world or other people or ourselves should or ought to be. These assumptions make up our value system. Listed in order of ease of accessibility, assumptions include:

 

 

期望

Expectations

信念

Beliefs

价值观

Values

 

 

可以通过明确的管理意图和行动来改变期望和某种程度上的信念。价值观是根深蒂固的假设,如果有的话,只能及时改变。

Expectations and to some extent beliefs can be changed through clear management intent and action. Values are deeply held assumptions that may be altered, if at all, only in time.

当经理能够利用下属的价值时,可能会产生真正的生产力。就个人而言,我非常重视创造力和自由。当我的经理挖掘我内心深处的那一口井时,他会激发我最好的工作。例如,当我的老板寻求有见地的营销分析时,他给了我一个表达我的创造力的机会。我们的目标被认为是一致的或等价的,因为我们都在瞄准同一件事。产生了所需的行为。组织中个人之间的目标一致使团队富有成效。目标一致是一个流行的 MBA 短语——听起来很棒,而且实际上很有意义。

When a manager is able to tap into the values of subordinates, then real productivity may result. Personally, I place a high value on creativity and freedom. When my manager taps into that well inside me, he elicits my best work. For example, when my boss seeks an insightful marketing analysis, he presents me with an opportunity to express my creativity. Our goals are said to be congruent or equivalent because we are both aiming at the same thing. The desired behavior is produced. Goal congruence among the individuals of an organization makes the group productive. Goal congruence is a popular MBA phrase—it sounds great, and it is in fact meaningful.

让我们以战略规划经理为例。他想利用他的团队的创造力来制定计划,以在不断变化的市场中竞争。过去,所有的创意工作都是他一个人完成的。他的员工只是习惯于处理数字。为了改变他们的行为,他必须学会容忍作为创作过程一部分的反复试验。由于过去曾因员工失误而遭到解雇和嘲笑,因此团队迟迟无法遵从他的意愿是可以理解的。工作人员的假设挡住了路。为了实现预期的改变,他需要通过持续奖励创造性行为来建立信任。

Let’s take the example of a strategic planning manager. He wanted to tap his team’s creativity in developing plans to compete in an evolving marketplace. In the past, he had done all the creative work himself. His staff members were simply used to crunch numbers. To elicit a change in their behavior, he had to learn to tolerate the trial and error that are part of the creative process. Because staff failures in the past had been met with firings and ridicule, the team would understandably be slow to comply with his wishes. The staff’s assumptions stood in the way. To effect the desired change, he needed to build trust by rewarding creative behavior consistently.

最重要的是,如果你想激励人们,了解一点心理学是很有用的。

The bottom line is that understanding a bit of psychology is useful if you wish to motivate people.

 

 

动机的期望理论

EXPECTANCY THEORY OF MOTIVATION

动机是一种难以捉摸的动物,所有组织都想抓住它。期望理论概述了产生个人动机的因素。经理、员工,甚至您都可以使用期望理论来尝试理解员工的行为。

Motivation is an elusive animal that all organizations want to capture. Expectancy theory outlines the factors that produce motivation with individuals. Managers, staff, and even you can use expectancy theory to attempt to understand employees’ behavior.

 

 

动机=对工作的期望将导致绩效×期望绩效将导致奖励×奖励的价值

Motivation = Expectation of Work will lead to Performance × Expectation Performance will lead to Reward × Value of Reward

该等式可能有助于隔离问题的根源。等式的每个组成部分都可以解释动机的某些方面。如果某汽车品牌的营销经理一直在将市场份额拱手让给制造更好、促销更好的竞争对手,他可能会觉得无论他做什么都会失败。那自然会降低他的积极性。如果公司从不奖励出色的表现,那也会导致不满。最后,如果奖励只是一组行政洗手间的钥匙,那么经理可能会考虑到别处工作。

This equation may be helpful in isolating the source of a problem. Each of the equation’s components can explain some aspect of motivation. If a marketing manager of a declining make of automobile has been losing market share to a better-manufactured and better-promoted competitor, he might feel that no matter what he does he will fail. That would naturally decrease his motivation. If the company never rewarded superior performance, that would also lead to discontent. And finally, if the reward were simply a set of keys to the executive washroom, then a manager might think of working elsewhere.

赫茨伯格、马斯洛和麦克莱兰这三位学术重量级人物认为,行为的动机是满足需求的冲动。弗雷德·赫兹伯格 (Fred Hertzberg) 认为,通过最大化工作中的激励因素或满足因素并最小化不满意因素或维护因素,可以增强激励。晋升或奖励可以是一种满足。维持因素不一定会带来幸福,但它们是意料之中的。安全的工作场所和维持生活的工资是典型的维持因素。亚伯拉罕马斯洛将员工激励视为满足员工需求层次的功能。层次结构经常被描述为金字塔。对食物和水的需求位于金字塔底部,其次是对安全的需求需要归属感地位需要,自我实现的需要被视为最高层次的需要。当一个人通过完成具有挑战性的目标而体验到个人成长和自我实现感时,这些需求就会得到满足。

Three academic heavyweights, Hertzberg, Maslow, and McClelland, believe that behavior is motivated by the urge to satisfy needs. Fred Hertzberg posits that motivation will be enhanced by maximizing the motivators or satisfiers on the job and minimizing the dissatisfiers or maintenance factors. A promotion or an award can be a satisfier. Maintenance factors don’t necessarily bring happiness, but they are expected. A safe place to work and a living wage are typical maintenance factors. Abraham Maslow sees employee motivation as a function of meeting an employee’s hierarchy of needs. The hierarchy is frequently depicted as a pyramid. The need for food and water is at the bottom of the pyramid, followed by the need for safety, the need to belong, and the need for status, while self-actualization needs are seen as the highest order of needs. These needs are met when a person experiences a sense of personal growth and self-fulfillment by accomplishing a challenging goal.

最后,David McClelland 提出人有三种基本需求,成就需求、权力需求和归属需求。无论理论如何,管理者都必须认识到员工的需求。

Finally, David McClelland proposes that people have three basic needs, the need for achievement, the need for power, and the need for affiliation. Whatever the theory, managers must recognize the needs of employees.

 

 

工作设计

JOB DESIGN

了解和影响员工积极性的另一种方法是调查工作的设计方式。每项工作都有特定的核心工作维度来描述所执行的职责。这些职责会导致员工出现严重的心理状态,从而导致各种结果。结果是工作绩效的看得见的表现,而心理状态则隐藏在人们的内心深处。如果人为因素被忽视,那么质量和效率就会受到影响。

Another way to understand and affect employee motivation is to investigate the way a job is designed. Each job has certain core job dimensions that describe the duties performed. These duties lead to critical psychological states within employees that result in a variety of outcomes. Outcomes are the visible manifestations of work performance, while psychological states are hidden in the hearts and minds of people. If the human element is ignored, then quality and efficiency will suffer.

如果 MBA 面临人事问题,那可能是工作设计的结果。对核心工作维度的仔细研究通常可以在不花费大量成本的情况下产生巨大的收益。例如,在洛杉矶的一家洛克希德零件厂,雇用和培训没有技能的少数族裔为另一家工厂制造的大型喷气式飞机组装零件。员工没有积极性,他们的产出质量很差。在与男工交谈时,经理们意识到这项工作对他们来说毫无意义。他们不明白他们在生产什么。为了解决这个问题,工人们被带到飞机装配厂,看看他们的零件安装在哪里。他们还遇到了那些在收到有缺陷的产品时感到不便的人。意识到他们工作的相关性,员工的工作效率提高了,零件缺陷也减少了。他们以前毫无意义的组​​装任务变得重要了,他们的回应是表现得更好。结果是员工更加快乐,他们为出色的工作感到自豪。这种员工幸福感的 MBA 术语是工作生活质量(QWL)。当员工有机会成为他们所能成为的一切时,MBA 用来描述这种情况的词就是赋权。今天,你很难不被这个词绊倒而拿起一本商业书籍。

If the MBA is confronted with a personnel problem, it may be the result of job design. A close study of the core job dimensions can often yield great benefits without significant costs. For example, at a Lockheed parts factory in Los Angeles, unskilled minorities were hired and trained to assemble parts for jumbo jets fabricated at another factory. The employees were unmotivated and the quality of their output was poor. In talking with the men workers, the managers realized that the work had no meaning to them. They did not understand what they were producing. To fix that, the workers were taken to the aircraft assembly plant to see where their parts were installed. They also met those who were inconvenienced when they received a defective product. Realizing the relevance of their work, the employees became more productive and part defects decreased. Their previously pointless assembly task acquired significance, and they responded by performing better. The result was a happier workforce that took pride in a job well done. The MBA term for such employee happiness is quality of work life (QWL). When employees are given the chance to be all that they can be, the word MBAs use to describe this is empowerment. You can hardly pick up a business book today without tripping over that word.

工作设计模型

JOB DESIGN MODEL

图片

改编自 William Zierden 教授的“工作设计简介”,案例 UVA-OB-91R,图 1。 版权所有 © 1975 达顿商学院基金会,弗吉尼亚州夏洛茨维尔。

Adapted from “Introduction to Job Design,” by Professor William Zierden, Case UVA-OB-91R, Figure 1. Copyright © 1975 by the Darden Graduate Business School Foundation, Charlottesville, Virginia.

 

 

MBA 人格特质

MBA PERSONALITY TRAITS

商学院教授年轻女性和男性商业技能,但他们也试图激励学生最大限度地发挥自己的潜力。本着这种精神,MBA 被教导要成为创新型领导者。

Business schools teach young women and men business skills, but they also try to motivate their students to maximize their own potential. In that vein, MBAs are taught to be innovative leaders.

 

 

领导。顶尖的 MBA 学校声称是未来商业领袖的孵化器。在这种追求中,组织行为课程探讨了领导主体及其职责。一些学校甚至派学生去树林进行拓展训练,以释放他们内心的领导能力并培养团队技能。领导者塑造目标。领导者开发新想法。领导者在情感层面上影响人们。另一方面,管理者对事件做出反应。管理者解决问题,而领导者接受挑战。当然,在顶级商学院,每个人都幻想自己成为未来的行业领袖。在本书第 10 章的末尾,有一个十分钟的领导力教练可以帮助您取得成功。

Leadership. The top MBA schools claim to be incubators for the business leaders of tomorrow. In this pursuit, organizational behavior classes probe the subject of leadership and its responsibilities. Some schools even send their students to the woods for Outward Bound experiences to unleash the leaders inside them and develop team skills. Leaders shape goals. Leaders develop new ideas. Leaders reach people on an emotional level. Managers, on the other hand, react to events. Managers solve problems, while leaders take on challenges. Of course, at the top business schools, everyone fancies himself or herself as a future captain of industry. At the end of the book in chapter 10, there is a Ten-Minute Leadership Coach to help you to succeed.

 

 

领导 VCM 模型。VCM 领导力模型提出以下三个特征是领导者个人档案的一部分:

The Leadership VCM Model. The VCM leadership model proposes that the following three characteristics are part of a leader’s personal profile:

 

 

  • 想象
  • Vision
  • 承诺
  • Commitment
  • 管理技巧
  • Management Skills

领导者以不同的比例展现这些品质。没有特定的组合效果最好。这完全取决于个人和工作情况。史蒂夫·乔布斯 (Steve Jobs) 在 1980 年代看到用户友好型个人计算的潜力时,可以被视为高瞻远瞩。在会计行业,远见并不是那么重要,而管理技能和长时间工作的承诺才是成功的关键。

Leaders exhibit these qualities in differing proportions. No particular mix works best. It all depends on the individual and the job situation. Steve Jobs could be viewed as being high on vision when he saw the potential for user-friendly personal computing in the 1980s. In the accounting profession, vision is not as critical, whereas management skills and commitment to long hours are the keys to success.

领导风格:愿景、承诺和管理

LEADERSHIP STYLES: VISION, COMMITMENT, AND MANAGEMENT

图片

改编自 James Clawson 教授的“管理风格调查”,Case UVA-OB-358,p。14. 版权所有 © 1988,达顿商学院基金会,弗吉尼亚州夏洛茨维尔。

Adapted from “Survey of Managerial Style,” by Professor James Clawson, Case UVA-OB-358, p. 14. Copyright © 1988 by the Darden Graduate Business School Foundation, Charlottesville, Virginia.

 

 

领导模式。有多少人,就有多少带兵的方法。领导风格的范围从以老板为中心到以下属为中心。在 1960 年代,高管们争先恐后地接受测试,看看他们在频谱上的位置。基于管理网格,他们可以被归类为“独裁者”或“懦夫”。一些老板直接使用他们的权力来迫使他们的员工采取行动。他们思考,员工负责跑腿。其他人则让他们的员工可以自由地运用自己的智慧来组织和完成任务。老板的职责是给出总体方向。领导者选择哪种领导风格取决于三种基本力量:

Leadership Patterns. There are as many ways to lead the troops as there are people. Leadership styles lie on a spectrum from boss-centered to subordinate-centered. In the 1960s, executives raced to be tested to see where they fell on the spectrum. Based on a managerial grid, they could be classified a “dictator” or a “wimp.” Some bosses use their authority directly to press their people into action. They do the thinking, and the staff does the legwork. Others give their people the freedom to use their own wits to organize and accomplish tasks. The boss’s function is to give general direction. Which leadership style a leader chooses is regulated by three basic forces:

 

 

  • 管理者内部的力量
  • The forces within the manager
  • 下属内部势力
  • The forces within the subordinates
  • 形势的力量
  • The forces of the situation

如果领导对下属没有信心,就不能委派任务。如果员工没有能力在不受监督的情况下工作,则完全授权是不合适的。当员工清楚地了解业务情况以及如何处理时,最好下放权限。

If the leaders do not have confidence in their subordinates, they cannot delegate tasks. If a staff doesn’t have the ability to work unsupervised, full delegation of authority is inappropriate. When the staff has a clear understanding of the business situation and how to address it, it’s best to delegate authority.

领导者了解自己的性格特征很重要。正如您想象的那样,无论情况如何,领导者的不安全感都可能导致独裁风格。这就是为什么自我意识很重要;它将使您能够避免不适当的管理方式。

It is important for a leader to understand his or her own personality traits. As you might imagine, a leader’s insecurities may lead to an authoritarian style, regardless of what the situation may dictate. That is why self-awareness is important; it will enable you to avoid inappropriate management styles.

 

 

我的缺点和优点是一样的。. . 什么都不够。我必须检查一切。这给我带来了麻烦——人们认为我不信任任何人。但我必须知道发生了什么。

My faults and my virtues are the same . . . Nothing is ever enough. I must check everything. It causes me problems—people think I don’t trust anyone. But I must know what’s going on.

——乔治·阿玛尼,福布斯

—Giorgio Armani, Forbes

 

 

创造力。MBA 不仅接受教育以了解领导力,还被教导通过发挥自己的创造力成为领导者。因为愿景是 VCM 馅饼中的一个元素,MBA 应该培养自己的创造力。每个人在最有创造力的时候都会有想法友好的时候。对于某些人来说,可能是在淋浴时,对于其他人来说,可能是在瓷王座上或车里。创造性思维往往转瞬即逝;您必须能够在它刚萌芽的阶段捕捉到它。Chick Thompson 的What a Great Idea建议我们应该在每个友好的地方随时准备一支笔、一台录音机或一支油性铅笔(用于淋浴) 。

Creativity. Not only are MBAs schooled to understand leadership, they are taught to become leaders by tapping their own creativity. Because vision is an element in the VCM pie, MBAs ought to nurture their own creativity. Everyone has idea-friendly times when they are most creative. For some it may be while in the shower, for others on the porcelain throne or in the car. Creative thought is often fleeting; you must be able to capture it in its tender, nascent stage. What a Great Idea by Chick Thompson suggests that we should always keep a pen, a tape recorder, or a grease pencil (for the shower) handy in each of our friendly places.

思维导图技术也可用。拿一张白纸,开始思考一个创造性的挑战,然后写下主题并圈出。继续,以一种完全不受约束的风格,围绕该主题的关键词涂鸦并圈出你所有的相关想法,并将它们像车轮上的辐条一样连接起来。每个辐条周围都应该有辐条,依此类推。没有思想太愚蠢!一切都完成后,一些东西可能会从自由联想的混乱中浮现出来。我已经使用该技术为本书设计标题、宣传文案和项目解决方案。试试看——您不会有任何损失。

The mind-mapping technique is also available. Take a blank piece of paper and start thinking about a creative challenge, then write down the subject and circle it. Proceed, in a completely uninhibited style, to scribble and circle all your related thoughts around that subject’s key words and connect them like the spokes on a wheel. Each of the spokes should have spokes around it, and so on. No thought is too stupid! After it’s all done, something may emerge from the jumble of free association. I’ve used the technique to think up titles, promotional copy, and project solutions for this book. Try it—you have nothing to lose.

为本书命名的简短思维导图会议如下图所示。

An abbreviated mind-mapping session to develop the name for this book looked like the diagram below.

书名的思维导图

MIND MAPPING FOR A BOOK TITLE

图片

 

 

创业。触及领导力和创造力的特质是最热门的 MBA 主题之一,即创业精神。是否可以教授创业精神是值得商榷的,但所有顶尖学校都在研究这一领域并进行尝试。对企业家的研究表明,他们具有以下特征的某种组合:

Entrepreneurship. Touching on the traits of leadership and creativity is one of the hottest MBA topics, entrepreneurship. It is debatable whether entrepreneurship can be taught, yet all the top schools are researching this area and giving it a try. Studies of entrepreneurs reveal that they possess some combination of the following characteristics:

 

 

  • 对模棱两可和不确定性感到自在
  • Comfortable with ambiguity and uncertainty
  • 相信他们掌握自己的命运
  • Belief that they control their own destinies
  • 完成任务的毅力
  • Tenacity in completing tasks
  • 对失败的恐惧程度低
  • Low fear of failure
  • 识别机会的能力
  • Ability to identify opportunities

创业 MBA 孵化器包括关于如何开始新企业和商业计划竞赛的课程。成功校友的访问提供了灵感,可以成为学生的联系来源。

Entrepreneurial MBA incubators include classes on how to start a new venture and business plan contests. Visits from successful alumni provide inspiration and can be a source of contacts for the students.

 

 

类型 A 和 B 行为。OB 教授将行为类型的概念引入课程,作为个人理解的附加工具。由于大多数进入前十名学校的 MBA 被录取是因为他们的 A 型人格帮助他们在大学班级中名列前茅,因此他们应该了解自己的这一方面似乎是合适的。A 型行为最初是在 1959 年由两位心脏病专家梅耶弗里德曼和雷罗斯曼发现的。他们注意到患有严重冠心病的患者通常具有以下特征:

Type A and B Behaviors. OB professors have introduced the concept of behavior typing into the curriculum as an added tool for personal understanding. Since most MBAs attending the Top Ten schools were admitted because their type A personalities helped them to the top of their college classes, it seems appropriate that they should understand that aspect of themselves. Type A behavior was originally identified in 1959 by two cardiologists, Meyer Friedman and Ray Roseman. They noticed that patients with severe coronary heart disease were often characterized by these traits:

 

 

  • 对成就的竞争需要
  • A Competitive Need for Achievement
  • 时间紧迫感
  • A Sense of Time Urgency
  • 攻击性
  • Aggressiveness
  • 对他人和世界的敌意
  • Hostility to Others and the World

图片

A 型行为的其他表现包括爆发性、语速加快、打断他人、快节奏的生活和不耐烦。A 型总是试图一次做不止一项活动。这就是那些 Palm Pilots 的用途。A型的人常常对生活不满,表现出一种随波逐流的敌意。他们根据外部成就来评估自我价值。一个确定的症状是在非竞争情况下与他人竞争。一位同学反映了这样一个案例:“在面试季,我被一位披萨公司的高管打动了,他吹嘘说,在公司一年一度的体检中,他在跑步机上的表​​现比他的同事还要好。” 那个高管是A型。

Additional manifestations of type A behavior include explosive, accelerated speech, interruption of others, a fast-paced approach to life, and impatience. Type A’s always try to do more than one activity at once. That’s what those Palm Pilots are for. Type A’s are often dissatisfied with life, showing a free-floating hostility. They evaluate their self-worth based on external achievements. One sure symptom is competition with others in noncompetitive situations. A classmate reported such a case: “During the interview season I was struck by a pizza company executive who boasted that his performance on the treadmill, during the company’s annual physical, was superior to that of his coworkers.” That executive was a type A.

在光谱的另一边,有 B 型,他们享受生活并且更放松。一些 B 型的人也潜入了商学院。大多数人都落在两个极点之间的连续体中。希望通过识别 A 型标志,MBA 硬充电器可以通过对他们的行为进行一些控制来阻止心脏病发作。如果不是,行为类型可以为即将被遗忘的 MBA 提供良好的酒吧对话。

On the opposite side of the spectrum, there are the type B’s, who enjoy life and are more relaxed. Some type B’s also sneak into business schools. Most individuals fall in the continuum between the two poles. Hopefully, by recognizing the type A signs, MBA hard chargers may be able to head off a heart attack by exercising some control over their behavior. If not, behavior typing can make good bar conversation for MBAs heading for coronary oblivion.

 

 

MBA办公程序

MBA OFFICE PROCEDURES

OB 教员除了让学生意识到自己的潜力和缺点外,还尝试教给我们一些实用的人际交往技巧,以帮助我们在工作中取得成功。

The OB faculty, besides making students aware of their potentials and shortcomings, tried to teach us some practical interpersonal skills that would help us to succeed on the job.

 

 

积极倾听。最有价值的技能之一就是能够真正倾听。积极倾听可以帮助您清楚地了解情况,以便您可以有效地处理它们。它在三个方面不同于对话:

Active Listening. One of the most valuable skills is to be able to really listen. Active listening helps you to gain a clear perception of situations so that you can effectively deal with them. It differs from conversation in three ways:

  • 你对信息做出反应而不是领导。
  • You Respond to Information and Don’t Lead.
  • 您回应个人信息但不提供建议。
  • You Respond to Personal Information and Don’t Give Advice.
  • 您确定受访者的感受以及内容。
  • You Identify the Interviewee’s Feelings as Well as the Content.

积极的倾听者会将对话的控制权让给另一方。如果有足够的余地,真正的动机、感受和信念就会出现。在主动聆听结束后,您可以开始说话,并再次表现得像个 MBA 万事通。

An active listener cedes control of the conversation to the other party. Given enough leeway, true motivations, feelings, and beliefs can come forth. After the active listening session runs its course, you can start to talk and act like an MBA know-it-all again.

 

 

绩效评估。组织改进中管理最不当的工具之一是绩效评估。评级表有时可以有效地用于及时反馈和个人发展。但是,大多数时候都是拖延到鉴定真的失去了所有用处的任务。有效的评估应该具有三种类型的目标:

Performance Appraisals. One of the most mismanaged tools for organizational improvement is the performance appraisal. Rating forms are sometimes used effectively for timely feedback and personal development. However, most of the time it is a task that is delayed until the appraisal has really lost all usefulness. Effective appraisals ought to have three types of goals:

 

 

组织

Organizational

反馈与评价

Feedback and Evaluation

辅导与发展

Coaching and Development

 

 

组织目标旨在确保适当的行为和绩效、安置、晋升和薪酬水平。反馈和评估方面为雇员和雇主提供正式的流程和绩效记录。指导和发展最终应该是评估的主要目标。我们如何改进而不是惩罚不满意的表现?上司和下属应该共同努力,就具体的改进目标和时间表达成一致。这些未来计划为后续行动奠定了基础。

Organizational goals aim to ensure proper conduct and levels of performance, placement, promotion, and pay. The feedback and evaluation aspects provide both employees and employers with a formal process and documentation of performance. Coaching and development should ultimately be the primary goals of an appraisal. How can we improve, rather than punish, unsatisfactory performance? Working together, the boss and the subordinate should agree on specific targets and timetables for improvement. These plans for the future lay the groundwork for a follow-up.

问题是管理者往往会回避这个评估过程。下属处于防御状态。评估必须及时;双方都必须做好准备。老板应该营造一种真正沟通(双向)的开放氛围,并明确评估的目的。尽管评估可以很简单,但很少做对。

The problem is that managers tend to avoid this evaluation process. Subordinates are defensive. The appraisal must be timely; both participants must be prepared. The boss should foster an open climate of real communication (both ways) and make the purpose of the appraisal clear. As simple as the appraisal can be, it is seldom done right.

除了改进的潜力外,评估还为雇主提供了合法解雇员工的文件。如果没有文件,心怀不满的工人可能会因缺乏正当理由而起诉公司。

In addition to the potential for improvement, appraisals provide employers the documentation to legally fire an employee. Without documentation a disgruntled worker could sue the company for lack of just cause.

 

 

斥责。有时会请 MBA 来降低繁荣。根据我的课堂讨论,MBA 应该使用以下四个步骤来训斥下属。

Reprimands. Sometimes an MBA will be called on to lower the boom. In line with my class discussions, the MBA should reprimand a subordinate using the following four steps.

 

 

1.先查清事实。问问自己问题是不是你造成的。

1. Check out the facts first. Ask yourself if you caused the problem.

2. 警告你需要谈论这个问题。

2. Give warning that you need to talk about the problem.

3. 停顿一下,表达你的不满。正如你所看到的那样准确地讲述它。大喊大叫适得其反。

3. Pause and express your displeasure. Tell it exactly as you see it. Yelling is counterproductive.

4.表现出关怀的态度。“我不赞成你的行为,但你还好。” “让我们从中吸取教训,把它抛在脑后。” 这个想法是坚定、明确地去做,然后转向新的业务。

4. Display a caring attitude. “I did not approve of your behavior, but you are still okay.” “Let’s learn from this and put it behind us.” The idea is to do it firmly, clearly, and move on to new business.

“一个好的经理可以平衡他的谴责和赞美。”

“A good manager can balance his reprimands with praise.”

 

 

管理你的老板。MBA 并不总是老板。大多数人最初都是低级的分析师、规划师和助理。具有讽刺意味的是,这些职位被运营班描述为公司的肥肉,适合修剪。即使 MBA 发现自己担任更高级的管理职位,也可以肯定他们将有一个老板要打交道。连总裁都要跟董事长打交道!

Managing Your Boss. MBAs are not always bosses. Most start out as lowly analysts, planners, and associates. Ironically, these are the positions that operations classes characterize as corporate fat, ripe for trimming. Even if MBAs find themselves in more senior managerial jobs, it’s a safe bet that they will have a boss to deal with. Even presidents have to deal with chairmen!

管理向上的关系与管理下方的关系同样重要。这就是为什么我把它收录在本书中的原因。为了给 MBA 一个优势,课程包括一个关于如何管理你的老板的课程。“管理你的老板”于 1980 年 1 月出现在《哈佛商业评论》上。它是由约翰·加巴罗 (John Gabarro) 和约翰·科特 (John Kotter) 撰写的,很好地抓住了这个主题。

Management of the relationship upward is as important as managing your relationship below. That’s why I’ve included it in this book. To give the MBA an edge, the curriculum includes a session on how to manage your boss. “Managing Your Boss” appeared in the Harvard Business Review in January 1980. It was written by John Gabarro and John Kotter, and it captures the subject well.

 

 

“在工作中取得成功的第一步是了解老板及其背景,包括:

“The first step to success on the job is to understand bosses and their context, including:

 

 

  • 他们明确和未明确的目标和目标
  • Their stated and unstated goals and objectives
  • 他们身上的压力
  • The pressures on them
  • 他们的优点、缺点和盲点
  • Their strengths, weaknesses, blind spots
  • 他们喜欢的工作方式
  • Their preferred work styles

“第二步是反省并评估你自己和你的需求,包括:

“The second step is to be introspective and assess yourself and your needs, including:

 

 

  • 自己的长处和短处
  • Your own strengths and weaknesses
  • 你的个人风格
  • Your personal style
  • 您倾向于依赖或抵制权威人物
  • Your predisposition toward dependence on or resistance to authority figures

“第三步是结合前两个步骤,发展和维持一种关系:

“The third step is to incorporate the first two steps and develop and maintain a relationship that:

 

 

  • 满足您的需求和风格
  • Fits both your needs and styles
  • 以相互期望为特征
  • Is characterized by mutual expectations
  • 让你的老板随时了解情况——老板讨厌惊喜!
  • Keeps your boss informed—bosses hate surprises!
  • 建立在可靠性和诚实的基础上
  • Is based on dependability and honesty
  • 有选择地使用老板的时间和资源” *
  • Selectively uses your boss’s time and resources”*

只需在关系开始时问几个问题,您就可以避免在未来犯下重大的政治错误。有些老板喜欢正式的关系、备忘录和有议程的会议。其他人更喜欢非正式的笔记和频繁的非结构化会议。聪明的 MBA 会主动询问他们的老板,他们更愿意如何沟通而不是猜测。职业生涯往往悬而未决。我仍然把 Gabarro 和 Kotter 的文章放在我的办公桌上,作为管理我老板的提醒。

Simply by asking a few questions at the start of the relationship, you can avoid making major political blunders in the future. Some bosses like a formal relationship, memos, and meetings with agenda. Others prefer informal notes and frequent unstructured meetings. Smart MBAs take the initiative to ask their bosses how they would prefer to communicate rather than guess. Careers often hang in the balance. I still keep Gabarro and Kotter’s article at my desk as a reminder to manage my boss.

 

 

了解工作中的权力。如果 MBA 想要权力,那么他们应该更多地了解他们寻求的是什么。实际上有五种权力:

Understanding Power on the Job. If MBAs want power, then they ought to know more about what they seek. There are actually five types of power:

 

 

强制性的

Coercive

报酬

Reward

所指的

Referent

合法的

Legitimate

专家

Expert

 

 

强制权力是建立在恐惧之上的。不遵守请求可能会导致某种形式的惩罚。具有强制力的人可以影响或直接解雇、降职或调动员工。在消防站,队长有权安排班次。如果你站在领导的一边,那可能意味着你要在假期工作。

Coercive power is based on fear. Failure to comply with a request could result in some form of punishment. A person with coercive power can influence or directly fire, demote, or transfer an employee. At a firehouse, the chief has the power to assign shifts. If you get on the chief’s bad side, it could mean you work holidays.

奖励能力基于对获得赞扬、认可或收入的期望。它与强制权力相反。

Reward power is based upon the expectation of receiving praise, recognition, or income. It’s the opposite of coercive power.

参照力来自成为其他人钦佩的人,而不管其正式工作身份如何。据说这些人具有激励和吸引追随者的魅力。明星销售人员在销售组织中扮演着这样的角色。

Referent power is derived from being a person whom other people admire regardless of formal job status. These people are said to have charisma to inspire and to attract followers. Star salespeople have this role in sales organizations.

合法权力源于在组织层级中的正式地位。拥有这种权力的人可以用它来奖励、削减和影响组织中其他人的生活。轮班工头有权在装配线上分配职责。

Legitimate power is due to the formal status held in the organizational hierarchy. Those with this type of power can use it to reward, to ax, and to influence the lives of others in the organization. A shift foreman has the power to assign duties on an assembly line.

专家权力来自于自己的技能、知识或经验。拥有专家权力的人有能力操纵他人。这与他们在公司中的地位无关。通常是低级计算机技术人员可能有权将高级管理人员带到他的小隔间。老板必须爬行寻求帮助。狡猾的技术人员修复了它,这样他们就可以单独访问数据库。这保留了他们的专家权力。交叉培训人员以防止在他们的组织中诞生这种小将军是经理的工作。

Expert power comes from one’s own skill, knowledge, or experience. People with expert power have the ability to manipulate others. This is without regard to their position in the company. Often it is a lowly computer technician who may have the power to bring a senior executive to his cubbyhole. The boss must crawl for assistance. Crafty technicians fix it so that they alone have the ability to tap into the database. This preserves their expert power. It’s a manager’s job to cross-train people to prevent the birth of such little generals in their organizations.

在公司的政治游戏中,MBA 必须承认组织中所有有权影响他们生活的人。

In the political gamesmanship of corporations, it is important for MBAs to recognize all the people in the organization with the power to influence their lives.

 

 

管理层收购和MBWA。MBO 和 MBWA 是 MBA babble 中经常使用的缩写。MBO就是目标管理。这是管理大师彼得·德鲁克 (Peter Drucker) 在 1950 年代推广的一种管理方式。老板通过与下属“协商目标合同”来委派任务,而不是规定详细的实施路线图。MBO 经理关注的是结果,而不是活动。例如,在 Frito-Lay,副总裁可能会为她的区域销售经理设定销售目标。管理者决定实现目标所需的战术和战略。

MBO and MBWA. MBO and MBWA are frequently used abbreviations in MBA babble. MBO means management by objective. It is a management style popularized by management guru Peter Drucker in the 1950s. Bosses delegate tasks by “negotiating a contract of goals” with their subordinates without dictating a detailed road map for implementation. MBO managers focus on the result, not the activity. At Frito-Lay, for example, a vice president might set a sales target for her regional sales managers. The managers decide what tactics and strategy are needed to meet the objective.

当您的员工有能力时,MBO 风格是合适的。跨国公司 (MNC) 的首席执行官将 MBO 用于他们在国外的国家经理。他们在美国的老板通常对在这些国际市场上取得成功所需的条件知之甚少。MBO适用于希望培养员工管理技能、挖掘员工创造力和主动性的情况。MBO 的缺点是需要时间来充分协商和记录流程。因此,MBO应该在适当的情况下使用。

The MBO style is appropriate when your staff is competent. Chief executives of multinational corporations (MNCs) use MBO for their country managers abroad. Their bosses in the United States often have little knowledge of what is required for success in those international markets. MBO is appropriate in situations where you wish to build employees’ management skills and tap their creativity and initiative. The drawback to MBO is the time needed to adequately negotiate and document the process. Therefore, MBO should be used in appropriate situations.

MBWA,management by walking around,是计算机巨头惠普公司阐述的一个理论。鼓励惠普高管走出办公室,致力于建立关系、激励并与公司活动保持直接联系。MBWA 是一个简单的概念,但它已成为 MBA 管理理论组合的一部分。

MBWA, management by walking around, was a theory expounded at Hewlett-Packard, the computer giant. HP executives were encouraged to be out of their offices working on building relationships, motivating, and keeping in direct touch with the activities of the company. MBWA is a simple concept, but it has become part of an MBA’s portfolio of management theories.

 

 

组织层面的主题

ORGANIZATIONAL LEVEL TOPICS

通过心理学课程和一套 MBA 办公程序,OB 课程以“大局观”看待组织。更大的范围也带来更宏大的理论和与之相伴的词汇。

With a psychology lesson and a set of MBA office procedures to work with, the OB courses take a “bigger picture” look at organizations. With a larger scope also come grander theories and the vocabulary to accompany them.

 

 

基本组织模型

THE BASIC ORGANIZATIONAL MODEL

要了解一个组织,您必须考虑其所有组成部分。组织是相关部分的网络。每个元素协同工作以支持高效运营。新的 MBA 流行语是组织架构。

To understand an organization, you have to consider all of its components. Organizations are networks of related parts. Each element works together to support efficient operations. The new MBA buzzword for it all is organizational architecture.

该图的一个值得注意的特征是个人位于中心。这样做的原因是组织不是由实体组成的,而是由人组成的。组织影响那些个人。前面几节中的理论侧重于个人。在以下部分中,将以 MBA 术语探讨组织的宏观观点。

A noteworthy feature of the diagram is that the individual is at the center. The reason for this is that organizations are made not of brick and mortar but of people. Organizations affect those individuals. The theories in the previous sections focused on the individual. In the following sections the macro-view of the organizations is explored in MBA terms.

如下图所示,六个元素定义了组织。有些是不言自明的,但有些则具有您应该注意的特殊 MBA 意义。

As shown in the diagram below, six elements define organizations. Some are self-explanatory, but others have special MBA significance that you should be aware of.

基本组织模型

THE BASIC ORGANIZATIONAL MODEL

图片

 

 

战略。战略描述了在市场上取得成功的明确或隐含的计划。当航空公司决定以更低的价格或更好的服务吸引客户时,这就是公司战略。(在本书的后面,我用整整一章来讨论这个真正的 MBA 主题。)

Strategy. Strategy describes an explicit or implicit plan for success in the marketplace. When an airline decides to lure customers with either lower prices or better service, that is a corporate strategy. (Later in the book, I devote an entire chapter to this truly MBA topic.)

政策和程序。政策是正式的规则,除小公司外,所有公司都将其记录在手册中,而程序是公司开展业务的可观察方式。假期和福利是编纂的政策。例行任务,例如如何分离废纸以进行回收,可能不会涉及到纸张。这是一个被理解的过程。

Policies and Procedures. Policies are formal rules that, in all but small companies, are captured in a handbook, while procedures are the observable ways in which a company conducts business. Vacation and benefits are policies that are codified. Routine tasks such as how waste paper should be separated for recycling may not be committed to paper. It’s a procedure that is understood.

 

 

组织结构。结构词汇是任何 MBA 都离不开的词典。它是公司会议上经常讨论的话题,也是管理组织行为的重要工具。结构描述了组织中权力和责任的层次结构。这些“正式”关系经常在组织结构图中用图表表示。大多数公司使用某种结构组合来实现他们的目标。直接参与公司产品或服务的生产或营销的人员称为直线员工。为这条线提供建议、服务和支持的其他人称为员工。可以按照以下方式组织生产线和员工:

Organizational Structures. Structure vocabulary is a lexicon that no MBA can be without. It is a frequent subject of discussion in corporate meetings and is also an important tool for managing organizational behavior. Structures describe the hierarchy of authority and accountability in an organization. These “formal” relationships are frequently diagrammed in organization charts. Most companies use some mix of structures to accomplish their goals. People who are directly involved in producing or marketing the firm’s products or services are called line employees. The others who advise, serve, and support the line are called staff employees. Line and staff employees can be organized along the following lines:

 

 

功能性

Functional

产品

Product

顾客

Customer

地理的

Geographic

分区的

Divisional

矩阵

Matrix

无定形

Amorphous

 

 

实用。职能形式按任务划分工作,例如,广告、会计、财务和销售。这些部门向高级管理人员报告。

Functional. The functional form divides work by tasks, e.g., advertising, accounting, finance, and sales. These departments report to the senior executives.

 

 

图片

“组织结构”,作者:James Clawson 教授,案例 UVA-OB-361,图 1-8。版权所有 © 1988 达顿商学院基金会,弗吉尼亚州夏洛茨维尔。

“Organizational Structure,” written by Professor James Clawson, Case UVA-OB-361, Figures 1–8. Copyright © 1988 by the Darden Graduate Business School Foundation, Charlottesville, Virginia.

 

 

产品。产品结构将交付特定产品所需的所有功能组合在一起。产品经理将单个产品作为公司内的较小业务进行管理。例如,Black & Decker 分为独立的部门,负责电动工具、小家电和配件。

Product. The product structure groups all functions necessary to deliver a specific product. Product managers manage individual products as smaller businesses within a company. Black & Decker, for example, is divided into separate units responsible for power tools, small appliances, and accessories.

图片

 

 

 

 

顾客。客户结构侧重于(您猜对了)客户。生产和营销等活动与其他职能组合在一起,以满足特定的客户需求。客户结构在服务行业中很常见。银行通常按客户类型划分责任。例如,一些信贷员接受过为商业客户服务的培训,而另一些则为个人服务。每个人都有“专业”知识来处理其客户的特定需求。

Customer. The customer structure focuses on—you guessed it—the customer. Activities, such as production and marketing, are grouped with other functions to satisfy specific customer needs. The customer structure is common in service industries. Banks often divide responsibility by customer type. For instance, some loan officers are trained to serve business clients, others to serve individuals. Each has “expert” knowledge to deal with his or her customers’ specific needs.

 

 

图片

 

 

地理。在这种安排中,工作按地点划分。地理结构跨越客户和产品。设立区域办事处来管理业务。对于国际企业尤其如此,每个国家的办事处都会采用自己的结构。

Geographic. In this arrangement work is divided by location. Geographic structures cut across customers and products. Regional offices are established to manage the business. This is especially true of international businesses, where each country’s office would adopt its own structure.

 

 

图片

 

 

分区的。分部是在母公司旗下运营的独立企业。与前四种结构不同,部门在某种程度上是自主运行的。他们自己做,从营销到购买原材料。但是,大多数部门使用母公司进行融资。例如,通用电气的公司结构包括 NBC Universal、GE Energy、GE Capital、GE Home & Business Solutions 和 GE Technology Infrastructure。这些企业为中央所有,但分别经营。在每个部门内可能还有其他组织子结构。

Divisional. Divisions are independent businesses operating under the umbrella of a parent corporation. Unlike the previous four structures, divisions run somewhat autonomously. They do it all themselves, from marketing to buying raw materials. However, most divisions use the parent company for financing. For example, General Electric has a divisional corporate structure that includes NBC Universal, GE Energy, GE Capital, GE Home & Business Solutions, and GE Technology Infrastructure. These businesses are centrally owned but separately operated. Within each of the divisions there may be other organizational substructures.

 

 

图片

 

 

矩阵。矩阵结构背离了统一指挥的原则:每个员工只有一个老板。这里有两条或更多的权力线。该矩阵在涉及需要高度专业技能的大型复杂项目的企业中很常见。在这种结构中,产品结构和功能结构并存。员工向负责其指定产品的项目经理和控制特定活动(如制造、财务和营销)的职能经理报告。正如您所料,这种组织形式可能会让人感到困惑。它需要灵活而专业的员工。国防和计算机行业通常选择矩阵结构来处理大型开发项目。

Matrix. The matrix structure departs from the principle of unity of command: only one boss for each employee. Here there are two or more lines of authority. The matrix is common in businesses involved in large, complex projects that require highly specialized skills. In this structure, both the product and the functional structures coexist. Employees report to both a project manager in charge of their assigned product and a functional manager who controls specific activities such as manufacturing, finance, and marketing. As you might expect, this organizational form can be confusing. It requires a staff that is flexible and professional. The defense and computer industries often opt for the matrix structure to handle large development projects.

 

 

图片

 

 

无定形的。这是我个人的最爱。无定形结构根本不是正式结构。这是自由的鸟。在这些公司中,高度积极和富有成效的经理会根据手头任务的需要建立和解除报告关系。在这些公司中,结构随着事件的发展而逐渐发展。Facebook 就是这样开始的。

Amorphous. This is my personal favorite. The amorphous structure is no formal structure at all. It’s the free bird. In these companies highly motivated and productive managers create and dissolve reporting relationships as the task at hand requires. In these companies, the structure incrementally grows as events dictate. Facebook started this way.

 

 

图片

 

 

杂交种。这些实体由多种运营结构组成。大多数公司都属于这一类。所描述的通用电气具有部门结构。但在每个部门内,都有地理制造组织、矩阵研究人员和客户-销售分组组织。在下面的例子中,一个单一的企业被组织成一个功能/产品混合体。品牌经理控制他们的产品和营销,但他们无法完全控制企业的融资或运营。

Hybrid. These entities are composed of a mix of operational structures. Most companies fall into this category. General Electric as described has a divisional structure. But within each division, there are geographic manufacturing organizations, matrix research staffs, and customer-sales-grouped organizations. In the example below, a single business is organized in a functional/product hybrid. The brand managers control their products and marketing, but they do not have complete control over the financing or operations of the business.

图片

结构的选择极大地影响了公司的运营。所需的业务活动与为生产和提供服务而设置的企业机构之间需要相匹配。

The choice of structure dramatically affects the operations of a company. There needs to be a fit between the business activities required and the corporate apparatus set up to produce and deliver the service.

管理者应该选择一个能反映他们的目标和战略的结构。所建立的结构使个人能够以最能实现目标的方式进行互动。非正式的报告关系是自发形成的,这些关系没有在人事部门保存的组织结构图中体现出来。认识到正式和非正式结构对于执行成功的行动计划至关重要。

Managers should select a structure that reflects their goals and strategy. The structure that is set up enables individuals to interact in ways that will best achieve goals. Informal reporting relationships form spontaneously, and these fail to be represented in the organizational charts kept by the personnel department. Recognizing both the formal and informal structures is crucial in executing a successful action plan.

与报告关系相关的一个重要问题是控制范围。跨度描述了向经理报告的人数。在重组、裁员和经济衰退期间,这个话题变得流行起来。由于控制范围缩小,大公司经常解雇中层管理人员 MBA。剩下的经理有更多的员工。如果销售组织从每三个区域一名区域经理的政策更改为每四个区域一名区域经理,则将取代 25% 的区域经理。MBA 将这些裁员称为裁员( RIF)、裁员重组。对于经理来说,这是一种很好的、​​杀菌的方式来描述许多人被解雇。控制范围政策是强大的组织工具。

An important issue related to reporting relationships is the span of control. The span describes the number of people who report to a manager. During restructuring, downsizing, and recessions this topic becomes popular. Using a decreased span of control, large corporations often fire middle-manager MBAs. The remaining managers have more staff. If a sales organization changes from a policy of one regional manager for every three regions to one for every four, that displaces 25 percent of the regional managers. MBAs call these layoffs a reduction in force (RIF), demassing, or restructuring. It’s a nice, antiseptic way for managers to describe the firing of many people. Span-of-control policies are powerful organizational tools.

图片

你被解雇了,内文斯,但我们很高兴你来到这里,并为你准备了一些可爱的离别礼物。”

YOU’RE FIRED, NEVINS, BUT WE’VE ENJOYED YOUR BEING HERE AND HAVE SOME LOVELY PARTING GIFTS FOR YOU.”

 

 

系统。每个组织都开发了用于分配、控制和监控金钱、事物和人员的系统。系统还通过收集信息并将其传送给感兴趣的用户来执行信息活动。系统分为六类之一:

Systems. Each organization develops systems for allocating, controlling, and monitoring money, things, and people. Systems also perform informational activities by gathering information and channeling it to interested users. Systems fall into one of six categories:

 

 

资金分配、控制和监控——会计、投资和预算系统

Money Allocation, Control, and Monitoring—Accounting, investment, and budgeting systems

对象分配、控制和监控——库存和生产系统

Object Allocation, Control, and Monitoring—Inventory and production systems

人员分配、控制和监控——人力资源规划、员工数据和评估

People Allocation, Control, and Monitoring—Human resource planning, employee data and appraisals

未来预期——战略规划、营销-销售规划、业务发展职能

Future Anticipation—Strategic planning, marketing-sales planning, business development functions

人员奖励和激励——薪酬计划、奖金计划、利润分享计划

People Reward and Incentives—Compensation schemes, bonus plans, profit-sharing plans

综合——前五个的混合。在管理良好的公司中,集成系统预测销售,这反过来又决定了满足该需求所需的生产计划。

Integrative—Mixes of the first five. In well-managed companies, integrated systems forecast sales, which in turn dictates production schedules required to meet that need.

 

 

了解组织的系统至关重要,因为它们是变革的工具。系统既是一种手段,有时也是企业变革的障碍。

It is crucial to understand the systems of an organization, because they are the tools for change. Systems provide both a means and, at times, a barrier to corporate change.

 

 

气候。这是一个模糊的术语,指的是组织成员的情绪状态。许多公司聘请昂贵的顾问进行满意度研究以确定其组织的“氛围”,以便进行改进。在以人为最宝贵资产的服务行业,例如律师事务所、投资银行和咨询业务,公司氛围在决定服务质量方面起着重要作用。

Climate. This is a nebulous term that refers to the emotional state of an organization’s members. Many companies hire expensive consultants to perform satisfaction studies to determine the “climate” of their organization so that improvements can be made. In service industries where people are the most valuable assets, such as law firms, investment banking houses, and consulting practices, the climate of the firm plays an important role in determining service quality.

 

 

文化。这是另一个模糊的术语。文化是行为、思想、信仰、符号和人工制品的混合体,随着时间的推移,这些行为、思想、信仰、符号和人工制品被传达给整个组织的人们。它可能会延伸到诸如所有男性都必须穿白色针尖牛津衬衫或公司领章这样的不成文规定这样愚蠢的事情。文化可能包括对理想员工行为的信念。“高级管理人员必须总是工作到六点以后。” “时刻保持忙碌的样子很重要。” 招聘的一个主要标准通常是受访者与组织的“契合度”。如果一个人看起来不“适合”企业文化,那么在许多招聘人员眼中,他或她可能不是一名有效的员工。

Culture. This is another hazy term. Culture is the mix of behaviors, thoughts, beliefs, symbols, and artifacts that are conveyed to peo-ple throughout an organization over time. It may extend to such silly things as an unwritten rule that all men must wear white pinpoint oxford shirts or corporate lapel pins. Culture may include a belief about desired employee conduct. “Senior executives must always work past six o’clock.” “It’s important to look busy at all times.” A main criterion for recruiting is often the perceived “fit” of interviewees with the organization. If a person does not appear to “fit” into the corporate culture, then he or she in many recruiters’ eyes will probably not be an effective employee.

组织的六个要素(战略、政策、结构、系统、氛围和文化)会动态地相互影响。当企业努力实现其目标时,每个元素都与环境相互作用。问题定义/行动计划流程要求经理查看组织模型的所有六个要素,以确定将存在哪些行动杠杆来实施积极的变革。如果环境发生变化,组织元素必须适应。MBA 喜欢把可以改变的公司称为学习型组织。

The six elements of an organization (strategy, policies, structure, systems, climate, and culture) dynamically affect one another. Each element interacts with the environment as a business strives toward its goals. The problem definition/action planning process requires that a manager look at all six elements of the organization model to determine which action levers will exist to implement positive change. If the environment changes, the organizational elements must adapt. MBAs like to refer to companies that can change as learning organizations.

被困在相同的旧思维和行为模式中的组织被认为是被他们的范式或心态所困。高价顾问通常会建议停滞不前的公司如何打破他们的旧模式,以便他们能够改变并取得成功。明天在谈话中多次使用范式这个词,你离成为十天 MBA 又近了一步。

Organizations that are stuck in the same old pattern of thinking and acting are said to be trapped by their paradigms or mind-set. High-priced consultants often counsel stagnant companies on how to break their old paradigms so that they can change and succeed. Use the word paradigm several times in a conversation tomorrow, and you’re one step closer to becoming a Ten-Day MBA.

 

 

人才流动金字塔

THE HUMAN TALENT FLOW PYRAMID

公司的结构不仅决定了员工的分组方式,还决定了他们在公司中的晋升方式。在每个进步阶段,个人都获得了更多的权力。人们要么离开,要么被解雇,要么升职。一个方便的 MBA 工具来跟踪这种人力资本流动是金字塔图。

The structure of a firm dictates not only how employees are grouped but also how they can advance in a firm. At each progressive stage the individual assumes more authority. People either leave, get fired, or are promoted. A handy MBA tool to track this flow of human capital is a pyramid diagram.

通过跟踪进出组织的人员流动,我们可以清楚地识别人员流动问题、技能缺陷和根深蒂固的管理。该图有助于以图形方式指出组织内人员流动的“漏洞”和“阻塞”。员工进入组织的各个级别,如左图所示,并在金字塔内向上移动。如果从一层到另一层的移动很少,这种阻塞可能会导致许多人感到沮丧,并离开金字塔的右侧,即泄漏。可以使用这种图片技术分析诸如女性“玻璃天花板”和少数族裔晋升等歧视问题。

By tracking the flows of people in and out of an organization, we can clearly identify turnover problems, skill deficiencies, and entrenched management. The diagram helps to point out graphically the “leakages” and “blockages” of people flows within the organization. Employees enter all levels of the organization as depicted at the left and move up within the pyramid. If there is little movement from one level to another, this blockage may cause many people to become frustrated and leave to the right of the pyramid, a leakage. Discrimination issues such as “glass ceilings” for women and minority promotions can be analyzed using this pictorial technique.

人才流动金字塔

THE HUMAN TALENT FLOW PYRAMID

图片

 

 

系统理论和组织分析

SYSTEMS THEORY AND ORGANIZATIONAL ANALYSIS

系统理论是一个将组织比作生物体的概念。正如动物有内分泌、消化和神经系统一样,学者们提出,组织机构也有类似的子系统,使它们能够生存。绘制图表时,组织看起来像草履虫。

Systems theory is a concept that likens organizations to living organisms. Just as animals have their endocrine, digestive, and nervous systems, academics propose that organizational bodies have similar subsystems that enable them to live. When diagrammed, an organization looks like a paramecium.

系统论

SYSTEMS THEORY

图片

“系统理论和组织分析”,作者 James Clawson 教授,案例 UVA-OB-214,图 1。 版权所有 © 1983 达顿研究生商学院基金会,弗吉尼亚州夏洛茨维尔。

“Systems Theory and Organizational Analysis,” by Professor James Clawson, Case UVA-OB-214, Figure 1. Copyright © 1983 by the Darden Graduate Business School Foundation, Charlottesville, Virginia.

 

 

管理子系统是设定目标、计划和控制的器官,类似于大脑。这就是执行者的作用。

The management subsystem is the organ that sets the goals, plans, and controls, similar to the brain. This is the role of executives.

自适应子系统充当企业监视环境的眼睛。该系统还确保公司的产品和服务适合不断变化的环境以确保生存。从市场研究人员、客户服务代表和销售人员那里收集的信息使公司具有适应性。

The adaptive subsystem acts as a firm’s eyes to monitor the environment. The system also makes sure that the firm’s products and services are appropriate in a changing environment to ensure survival. Information gathered from market researchers, customer service representatives, and salespeople makes a company adaptive.

子系统中跨越的边界是嘴巴。它控制组织食物的摄入量。在一个公司中,这个子系统包括招聘人员、购买原材料和筹集资金。

The boundary spanning in subsystem is the mouth. It controls the intake of the organization’s food. In a company, this subsystem includes recruiting people, buying raw materials, and raising money.

公司的核心是生产子系统。它将投入转化为商品和服务。在制造公司中,这些是工厂。

The bowels of the company are the production subsystem. It converts the inputs into goods and services. In a manufacturing company, these are the factories.

肠子通向边界跨越子系统。营销人员帮助公司生产产品和服务。人事部门负责安置未达到公司标准的员工。最后,公共关系部门试图为公司的行为摆出一副好面子。

The bowels lead to the boundary spanning out subsystem. The marketing crew helps the company produce its products and services. The personnel department deals with the outplacement of employees who have not met company standards. And finally, the public relations department tries to put a good face on the company’s actions.

一旦动物呼吸正常并正常运作,维护子系统就会尝试使其他子系统保持高效协同工作。这个小脑通过协调身体的所有运动来维持组织的平衡。维护子系统的例子包括员工激励和公司通讯。

Once the animal is breathing and functioning properly, the maintenance subsystem tries to keep the other subsystems working efficiently together. This cerebellum maintains a balance in the organization by coordinating all the movements of the body. Examples of the maintenance subsystems include employee incentives and company newsletters.

系统理论提供了另一种分析组织以衡量其健康状况或改变其生活方式的方法。

Systems theory provides yet another way of analyzing an organization to gauge its health or to make a change in its lifestyle.

 

 

随着组织的发展而演变和革命

EVOLUTION AND REVOLUTION AS ORGANIZATIONS GROW

哈佛商学院的 Larry E. Greiner 在 1972 年 7 月的《哈佛商业评论》上写了一篇同名的经典文章,描述了组织所经历的成长的烦恼。

Larry E. Greiner of the Harvard Business School wrote a classic article with this title in the Harvard Business Review in July 1972, describing the growing pains that organizations go through.

Greiner 提出,组织呈现出五个可预测的增长阶段(称为进化)和五个危机时期(称为革命)。他的理论很容易适用于许多组织。增长模式包括收紧和放松管理控制以响应组织内部和环境的变化。

Greiner proposed that organizations exhibit five predictable stages of growth called evolutions and five periods of crises called revolutions. His theory is readily applicable to many organizations. The growth pattern consists of tightening and loosening of management reins in response to changes within the organization and the environment.

图片

经哈佛商业评论许可转载。拉里·E·格雷纳 (Larry E. Greiner) 的“组织成长的演变与革命”展览,第 50 卷,第 4 期(1972 年 7 月/8 月)。版权所有 © 1972 哈佛大学校长和院士;版权所有。

Reprinted by permission of Harvard Business Review. An exhibit from “Evolution and Revolution as Organizations Grow” by Larry E. Greiner, Volume 50, Number 4 (July/August 1972). Copyright © 1972 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College; all rights reserved.

 

 

Apple Computer 所展示的进化/革命模式是将公司历史纳入 MBA 视角的绝佳方式。Apple Computer 从史蒂文乔布斯和斯蒂芬沃兹尼亚克的创造力中脱颖而出。从 1976 年开始,这两位企业家坐上了快速增长的货运列车,直到公司变得如此笨拙,以至于在 1983 年差点脱轨。运行其日常业务。乔布斯是一位高瞻远瞩的演讲家,而沃兹尼亚克则是神奇的技术人员。

The evolution/revolution pattern, as shown by Apple Computer, is an excellent way to put a company’s history into MBA perspective. Apple Computer sprang forth from the creativity of Steven Jobs and Stephen Wozniak. Beginning in 1976, these two entrepreneurs were on a freight train of rapid growth until the company became so unwieldy that it almost jumped the tracks in 1983. Apple was faced with the leadership crisis of a growth company that didn’t have anyone who could efficiently run its day-to-day operations. Jobs was a lofty visionary making speeches, while Wozniak was the magic technician.

由于创意燃料不足,公司开始耗尽汽油。Apple II 销量下滑,新的 Lisa 电脑也出现故障。John Sculley(沃顿商学院 MBA '63)是从百事可乐公司调来的,负责指导公司发展。斯卡利重组了 Apple,并削减了臃肿的总部的成本。史蒂夫乔布斯和他的追随者要求更多的自主权来开发新的突破性产品,斯卡利给了他们。该代表团导致了 Macintosh 的诞生。

The company started to run out of gas as its creative fuel ran low. Apple II sales slumped and the new Lisa computer failed. John Sculley (Wharton MBA ’63) was brought in from Pepsi-Cola to give the company direction. Sculley reorganized Apple and cut costs in its bloated headquarters. Steve Jobs and his followers demanded more autonomy to develop a new breakthrough product, and Sculley gave it to them. The delegation resulted in the creation of the Macintosh.

Mac 创造了另一个爆炸式增长期。然而,乔布斯无法在日益壮大的企业官僚主义中工作,于是他创办了一家名为 NeXT 的新公司。1989 年老化的 Mac 面临激烈的竞争,1990 年随着利润下滑,新的苹果控制危机正在酝酿。Michael Spindler 被任命为首席运营官,以协助担任董事长的 Sculley 接管公司并使公司恢复盈利能力。到 1992 年,他们取得了成功,但在 1995 年陷入了危机。史蒂夫·乔布斯 (Steve Jobs) 在 1998 年凭借 iMac 和 G3 电脑、2002 年凭借 iPod 音乐播放器、2007 年凭借 iPhone 以及 2010 年凭借 iPad 回归并引领了又一次复苏.

The Mac created another explosive growth period. However, Jobs could not work in a growing corporate bureaucracy, and he started a new company called NeXT. In 1989 the aging Mac faced fierce competition, and as profits declined in 1990, a new Apple crisis of control was brewing. Michael Spindler was appointed as chief operating officer to assist Sculley as chairman to take control and return the company to increasing profitability. By 1992 they had succeeded, but fell into crisis in 1995. Steve Jobs returned and led yet another recovery in 1998 with the iMac and G3 computers, in 2002 with the iPod music player, in 2007 with the iPhone, and in 2010 with the iPad.

 

 

变革管理策略

CHANGE MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES

除了关于思想和团体的所有理论之外,MBA 还接受在困难情况下采取行动的实践指导。即使行动计划是“完美的”,也总是存在改变的阻力。即使是那些经过深思熟虑的计划,例如本章开头这位新 MBA 向他的老板提出的计划,也可能会碰壁。幸运的是,约翰·科特 (John P. Kotter) 和伦纳德·施莱辛格 (Leonard A. Schlesinger) 在 1979 年 3 月发表于《哈佛商业评论》的文章“选择变革战略”中制定了一个简洁的模型来协助 MBA 。适当的行动方案完全取决于具体情况。

In addition to all the theory about the mind and corporate body, MBAs receive practical guidance for taking action in difficult situations. Even if an action plan is “perfect,” there is always resistance to change. Even those well-thought-out plans such as the one the new MBA proposed to his boss at the beginning of this chapter may run up against a wall. Fortunately, John P. Kotter and Leonard A. Schlesinger formulated a tidy model to assist MBAs in their article “Choosing Strategies for Change” in the Harvard Business Review of March 1979. The appropriate course of action all depends on the situation.

 

 

形势变革所需的行动

Situation Action Needed for Change

公司缺乏信息 → 教育和沟通策略

Company Lacks Information → Education and Communication Tactics

 

 

在盐湖城一家经营缓慢的制造公司中,员工对公司的盈利情况一无所知。从车主的昂贵汽车来看,他们认为一切都很好。不幸的是,该公司正在亏损,除非生产力提高,否则裁员将不可避免。在这种情况下,员工需要了解公司的真实情况,然后才能全力配合以提高工作效率。

In a stodgily run manufacturing company in Salt Lake City, the employees were kept in the dark about corporate profitability. Judging by the expensive cars of the owner, they assumed that all was well. Unfortunately, the company was losing money and layoffs would be inevitable unless productivity rose. In this situation, the employees would need to be informed about the true condition of the company before they gave their full cooperation to work more efficiently.

 

 

您需要信息,但几乎没有影响力 → 参与和介入策略

You Need Information and You Have Little Leverage → Participation and Involvement Tactics

堪萨斯城的一家金属加工厂聘请了一名顾问来解决旷工问题。顾问不了解这里的人、人物或城镇。因为她是局外人,她无权要求配合她的调查。她首先必须获得工人们的信任,并开始与他们讨论导致这么多病假的问题。她需要他们的合作和参与来为工人和管理层定义和解决问题。

A metal fabrication plant in Kansas City hired a consultant to cure absenteeism. The consultant did not know the people, the personalities, or the town. Because she was an outsider, she had no power to demand cooperation for her investigation. She first had to gain the trust of the workers and begin to talk with them about the problems that prompted so many sick days. She needed their cooperation and involvement to define and solve a problem for the workers as well as for management.

 

 

调整问题 → 支持和促进策略

Adjustment Problems → Support and Facilitation Tactics

随着办公室在全国范围内实现计算机化,秘书工作也发生了变化。没有更多的打字机了。秘书需要在计算机上使用文字处理程序。公司需要对员工进行再培训,而不是雇用新员工。公司必须聘请计算机支持人员来帮助进行此调整。

As offices become computerized across the country, secretarial work has changed. There are no more typewriters. Secretaries are required to use word processor programs on computers. Instead of hiring new help, companies need to retrain their staffs. Companies must hire computer support staff to help with this adjustment.

 

 

你想要的改变会造成损失,对手有权阻止你→谈判和协议策略

Your Desired Changes Will Cause Losses and Opponents Have Power to Block You → Negotiation and Agreement Tactics

20 世纪 80 年代,机器人技术被引入美国汽车行业。日本进口商品正在海外就业。通用汽车、福特和克莱斯勒选择与强大的美国汽车工人联合会谈判新协议,以允许新技术要求的工作规则改变。如果公司决定采取强硬态度并将他们的意志强加给 UAW,工会可能会发起攻击,而双方最终都会失败。通过合作,双方都有生存的机会。

In the 1980s robotics were introduced in the American auto industry. Japanese imports were taking jobs overseas. GM, Ford, and Chrysler chose to negotiate new agreements with the powerful United Auto Workers union to allow work-rule changes required by the new technology. If the corporations had decided to play hardball and impose their will upon the UAW, the union could have struck, and both parties would have ended up losing. By cooperating both had a chance of surviving.

 

 

你别无选择,也没有钱提供便利 → 操纵(不提供选择)

You Have No Alternatives and No Money for Facilitation → Manipulation (Give No Choices)

在陷入困境的公司中,除了裁员和减薪之外,通常别无选择。新泽西州特伦顿的一家电子开关制造商为其员工提供了降低工资或根本不工作的选择。他们接受了减薪,但公司还是倒闭了。

In distressed companies there are often no alternatives to layoffs and wage cuts. A manufacturer of electronic switches in Trenton, New Jersey, gave its employees the choice of lower wages or no jobs at all. They took the pay cut, but the company failed anyway.

 

 

需要速度,你有权力 → 明确的命令和胁迫策略

Speed Is Needed and You Have the Power → Explicit Orders and Coercion Tactics

这种情况在咨询、法律和公共会计行业最为常见。熟悉的场景始于客户要求“昨天”到期的项目。合伙人召来一位地位较低的合伙人,要求“前天”完成任务。合伙人说跳,同事跳。合伙人掌握权力。问题是员工会筋疲力尽而离职。对公司来说幸运的是,有大批渴望大学毕业生接替他们的职位。如果你选择胁迫策略,你必须确保你有权力并且愿意处理后果。

This situation is most common in the consulting, law, and public accounting professions. The familiar scene begins with a client requesting a project due “yesterday.” The partner calls in a lowly associate and demands that the assignment be completed “the day before yesterday.” The partner says jump and the associate jumps. The partners hold the power. The rub is that employees burn out and leave. Fortunately for the firms, there are legions of eager college graduates to replace their ranks. If you choose coercion tactics, you have to be sure you have the power and are willing to deal with the consequences.

 

 

组织行为学概述

AN OVERVIEW OF ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR

最重要的是,MBA 应该三思而后行。当MBA们需要采取行动时,他们应该首先从个人的角度,然后从组织的角度,全面分析情况,制定一个协调有效的行动计划。MBA 没有经过任何方式的培训成为“组织专家”,但有了一些理论和框架,他们应该有更好的机会有效地行动。

Above all, MBAs should think before they act. When MBAs need to take action, they should thoroughly analyze the situation, first from the perspective of the individual and then from an organizational vantage point, to create a coordinated and effective action plan. MBAs are not trained to be “organizational experts” by any means, but with a few theories and frameworks, they should have a better chance of acting effectively.

 

 

关键 OB 要点

KEY OB TAKEAWAYS

想要差距——组织问题

Want Got Gaps—Organizational problems

因果链——问题之间的关系

Causal Chains—The relationship of problems to one another

行动计划——解决组织问题的一系列特定活动

Action Planning—A specific series of activities to solve an organizational problem

APCFB 模型——人类心理模型

APCFB Model—A human psychology model

目标一致——目标相似的人在一起工作得更好。

Goal Congruence—People with similar goals work better together.

期望理论——动机是员工的行为如何转化为奖励的函数。

Expectancy Theory—Motivation is a function of how an employee’s actions translate into a reward.

VCM 领导力模型——领导力的愿景、承诺和管理方面

VCM Leadership Model—The vision, commitment, and management aspects of leadership

积极倾听——倾听以获得洞察力

Active Listening—Listening to gain insight

权力的五种形式——权力不仅仅来自于一个头衔。

The Five Forms of Power—Power is derived from more than a title.

基本组织模型——战略、政策、结构、系统、气候和文化

The Basic Organizational Model—Strategy, policies, structure, systems, climate, and culture

结构——公司组织自身的方式

Structure—The way a company organizes itself

控制跨度——管理者直接控制的人数

Span of Control—The number of people a manager directly controls

范式——企业的思维模式或做事模式

Paradigm—A corporate mind-set or pattern of doing things

系统理论——一个组织的功能很像一个身体。

Systems Theory—An organization functions much like a body.

演进和革命模式——组织在其生命周期中会经历一系列的成长和危机时期。

The Evolution and Revolution Pattern—Organizations go through a series of growth and crisis periods during their lifetimes.

第五天

Day 5

定量分析

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS

定量分析专题

Quantitative Analysis Topics

决策树分析

Decision Tree Analysis

现金流量分析

Cash Flow Analysis

净现值

Net Present Value

概率论

Probability Theory

回归分析与预测

Regression Analysis and Forecasting

定量分析 (QA) 可能是 MBA 课程中最具挑战性和最重要的课程。它提供主要用于财务、会计、营销和运营的基本工具。因此,不要仅仅因为您不习惯处理数字和统计数据就跳过这些页面。给它一个机会!

Quantitative analysis (QA) is probably the most challenging and most important course in the MBA curriculum. It provides the basic tools principally used in finance, accounting, marketing, and operations. Therefore, these pages are not to be skipped over simply because you are not accustomed to dealing with numbers and statistics. Give it a chance!

定量技术为 MBA 提供了一种将自己与非 MBA 同行区分开来的方法。MBA 可以通过创建复杂的图表和图形以及使用令人印象深刻的语言来引起老板的注意。希望他们必须得出的结论是一个受欢迎的故事。

Quantitative techniques provide MBAs with a way to distinguish themselves from their non-MBA peers. MBAs can make a splash with their bosses by creating sophisticated charts and graphs and by using impressive language. Hopefully, the conclusions they have to deliver are a welcomed story.

运用QA理论解决商业问题是MBA的主要工作。定量分析有助于 MBA 在解决复杂问题时保持客观。这些技术背后的理论是无关紧要的。重要的是应用它们来解决实际业务问题。然而应该指出的是,无论量化工具在数学上看起来多么精确,它们都不能替代 MBA 自己的最佳判断。

Using QA theories to solve business problems is the MBA’s main job. Quantitative analysis helps MBAs remain objective when solving complicated problems. The theories behind the techniques are inconsequential. Their application to solve real business problems is what is important. Yet it should be noted that no matter how mathematically precise the tools of quantitative may appear, they are no substitute for an MBA’s own best judgment.

图片

“我热切希望,FERNBAUGH,这些都是毫无意义的统计数据。”

“IT’S MY FERVENT HOPE, FERNBAUGH, THAT THESE ARE MEANINGLESS STATISTICS.”

 

 

决策论

DECISION THEORY

决策理论教授如何将复杂问题分解为可管理的部分。如果没有解决困难情况的框架,这种情况很快就会变得难以处理。例如,QA 可用于帮助投机者决定是否钻探石油。然而,石油勘探的固有风险无法消除。决策树图可以组织问题的备选方案、风险和不确定性。

Decision theory teaches how to break complex problems into manageable parts. Without a framework to attack difficult situations, such cases quickly become unmanageable. For example, QA can be used to help a wildcatter decide whether to drill for oil. The inherent risks of oil exploration, however, cannot be eliminated. A decision tree diagram can organize the problem’s alternatives, risks, and uncertainty.

决策树分析包括以下五个步骤:

Decision tree analysis consists of the following five steps:

 

 

1. 确定与该情况相关的所有可能的备选方案和风险。

1. Determine all the possible alternatives and risks associated with the situation.

2. 计算每个备选方案的货币后果。

2. Calculate the monetary consequences of each of the alternatives.

3. 确定与每个备选方案相关的不确定性。

3. Determine the uncertainty associated with each alternative.

4. 将前三个步骤组合成树状图。

4. Combine the first three steps into a tree diagram.

5. 确定最佳选择并考虑问题的非货币方面。

5. Determine the best alternative and consider the nonmonetary aspects of the problem.

决策树图包括活动分叉事件分叉,这些分叉位于可能存在备选方案的接合点。例如,是否钻探石油的决定代表了石油投机者在树中的一个活动叉。它在决策树上用正方形表示。如果不同的选择受到不确定性的影响,那就是事件分叉。产油井的不确定结果将被视为事件。它在决策树上用圆圈表示。

Decision tree diagrams include activity forks and event forks at the junctures where alternatives are possible. For example, the decision whether to drill for oil represents an activity fork in the tree for an oil wildcatter. It is symbolized on a decision tree by a square. If the different alternatives are subject to uncertainty, that is an event fork. The uncertain outcome of a well producing oil would be considered an event. It is symbolized on a decision tree by a circle.

活动叉子

ACTIVITY FORKS

图片

活动分叉

EVENT FORKS

图片

 

 

决策树示例

DECISION TREE EXAMPLE

作为决策树可能有用的情况的说明,请考虑德克萨斯州的山姆休斯顿先生。休斯顿先生即将行使选择权,在一块前景广阔的地块上钻探石油。他应该钻吗?如果他击中井喷,估计可以获得 1,000,000 美元。在调查了所有备选方案后,休斯顿先生列出了以下清单:

As an illustration of a situation where the decision tree could be helpful, consider Mr. Sam Houston of Texas. Mr. Houston is about to exercise his option to drill for oil on a promising parcel. Should he drill? If he hits a gusher, there is an estimated $1,000,000 to be gained. When he investigated all of the alternatives, Mr. Houston made the following list:

 

 

1. Sam 为钻井选项支付了 20,000 美元。

1. Sam paid $20,000 for the drilling option.

2. 如果山姆聘请地质学家进行地震测试(50,000 美元),他可以降低风险。这将使他更好地了解成功并降低浪费钻井成本的风险。

2. Sam could lower his risks if he hired a geologist to perform seismic testing ($50,000). That would give him a better indication of success and lower his risk of wasting drilling costs.

3. 他是否应该在没有地震评估指导的情况下掷骰子并承担 200,000 美元的钻井成本?

3. Should he roll the dice and incur $200,000 in drilling costs without a seismic evaluation to guide him?

4. Sam 咨询了石油专家。他们认为 Sam 的包裹有 60% 的机会在没有任何测试的情况下有油。

4. Sam consulted with oil experts. They believe Sam’s parcel has a 60 percent chance of having oil without the benefit of any tests.

5. 专家的经验还表明,如果地震试验对油类呈阳性反应,则有 90% 的可能性存在“一些”油类。相反,失败的可能性为 10%。

5. It has also been the experts’ experience that if seismic tests are positive for the oil, there is a 90 percent chance there is “some” oil. And conversely, there is a 10 percent chance of failure.

6. 如果地震测试结果为阴性,Sam 仍然可以钻探,但成功几率为 10%,失败几率为 90%。

6. If the seismic tests are negative, Sam could still drill but with a 10 percent chance of success and a 90 percent chance of failure.

7. 山姆可以决定根本不钻井。

7. Sam could decide not to drill at all.

上面的每条信息都被合并到一个树图中。树形图以图形方式组织了休斯顿先生的备选方案。

Each piece of information above is incorporated into a tree diagram. A tree diagram graphically organizes Mr. Houston’s alternatives.

在您对树木的绘制过于热情之前,您必须确定哪些信息是无关紧要的。在这种情况下,Sam 为他的钻探选择权支付的 20,000 美元是无关紧要的;这是沉没成本。钱出了门,沉了一口井。无论 Sam 做出什么决定,它都不会回来。因此,沉没成本被排除在决策树之外。

Before you get too enthusiastic over the drawing of trees, you must determine what information is irrelevant. In this case, the $20,000 Sam paid for his drilling option is extraneous; it is a sunk cost. The money is out the door, sunk down a well. It isn’t coming back no matter what Sam decides. Sunk costs are therefore excluded from decision trees.

 

 

绘制决策树

DRAWING A DECISION TREE

绘制树的第一步是确定需要做出的第一个决定(或树的分支)。Sam 应该选择先测试吗?如果选择地震测试,它将先于随后的所有其他活动。它在树中反映为第一个叉子处的正方形

The first step to drawing the tree is to determine the first decision (or fork of the tree) that needs to be made. Should Sam choose to test first? If seismic testing is chosen, it would precede all of the other activities that follow. It is reflected in the tree as a square at the first fork.

图片

如果 Sam 进行测试,它可能会导致正面事件(60% 的机会)或负面事件(40%)。如果没有测试,他仍然可以选择钻或不钻(方形)。不管地震报告的结果如何,山姆仍然可以“选择”钻与不钻。但是一旦石油钻井平台开始钻探,石油的存在就是不可控的事件。要么会有利润丰厚的石油事件,要么不会。

If Sam tests, it could result in a positive event (60 percent chance) or negative event (40 percent). If there are no tests, he can still choose to drill or not (square). Regardless of the results of the seismic report, Sam can still “choose” to drill or not. But once the oil rig is drilling, the existence of oil is an uncontrollable event. Either there will be a lucrative oil event or not.

图片

下一步是添加货币后果——它们就像“树叶”。如果有石油,就会有 1,000,000 美元的发薪日。每口井的钻井成本为 200,000 美元。每口井的测试成本为 50,000 美元。

The next step is to add the monetary consequences—they are like the “leaves to a tree.” If there is oil, there would be a $1,000,000 payday. Drilling costs are $200,000 per well. Testing costs are $50,000 per well.

要了解每个决策的潜在财务结果,请将可能的美元结果乘以它们在存在“事件循环”的分叉处的概率。([1,000,000 美元发薪日× .90 概率] + [0 美元发薪日× .10 概率] = 900,000 美元。)这为您提供了事件的预期货币价值(EMV),尽管实际的单个结果可能是一系列值。在任何圆圈中,概率总和必须达到 100% (.90 + .10 = 1.00),以表示所有可能性都已考虑在内。每个分叉与其他备选方案互斥,并且在该备选方案中概率为 100% 或穷尽。

To know the potential financial outcomes of each decision, multiply the possible dollar outcomes by their probabilities at forks where there is an “event circle.” ([$1,000,000 payday × .90 probability] + [$0 payday × .10 probability] = $900,000.) This gives you the expected monetary value (EMV) of the event, although the actual individual outcomes can be a range of values. At any circle, the probabilities must add up to 100 percent (.90 + .10 = 1.00) to denote that all possibilities are accounted for. Each fork is mutually exclusive of other alternatives, and within that alternative the probability is 100 percent or collectively exhaustive.

决策树石油钻探

THE DECISION TREE OIL DRILLING

图片

活动方块中,决策者有能力选择最佳结果。要确定最佳替代方案,请从替代方案的收益中减去适用成本。您可以从最右边开始,然后向左移动,从而计算出金钱后果。这个过程被称为“折叠”或“修剪”树,以得出最佳行动计划决策。在方叉处,您应该选择最高美元的替代方案。在圆圈处,将可能的收益乘以它们的概率。

At activity squares the decision maker has the ability to choose the best outcome. To determine the best alternative, subtract the applicable cost from the payoff of the alternative. You calculate the monetary consequences by beginning at the far right and working your way to the left. This process is said to be “folding back” or “pruning” the tree to arrive at your best action plan decision. At square forks you should choose the highest dollar alternative. At the circle multiply the possible payoffs by their probabilities.

树下达的决定是将谨慎抛诸脑后,放弃地震测试。进行测试的预期货币价值为 370,000 美元 (420–50),而不进行测试的 EMV 为 400,000 美元。您选择最高的预期货币价值(EMV)。这个相对简单的概念框架可以应用于新产品开发、房地产开发和商店库存水平决策。无论要考虑的决策是什么,决策树结构都会迫使决策者全面了解所有备选方案,对不确定性进行评估(您通常必须对概率做出最佳猜测),并明确计算美元结果可能。这棵树迫使决策者明确地陈述他们的假设。在这种情况下,您可能会认为当有测试结果被误报时油的概率。在那种情况下,使用不同的假设,您可能会得到相反的最终答案。其他人看到同样的情况可能会有不同的看法。通过比较树,

The decision dictated by the tree is to throw caution to the wind and forgo the seismic tests. The expected monetary value of going ahead with testing is $370,000 (420–50), while the EMV of going ahead without tests is $400,000. You choose the highest expected monetary value (EMV). This relatively simple conceptual framework can be applied to new product development, real estate development, and store inventory level decisions. Whatever the decision to be considered, a decision tree structure forces the decision maker to take a comprehensive view of all the alternatives, to make an evaluation of the uncertainty (you often have to make your best guess about probabilities), and to explicitly calculate the dollar outcomes possible. The tree forces decision makers to state their assumptions explicitly. In this case, you may consider that the probability of oil when there is a test result to be misstated. In that case, using a different assumption, you may get the opposite final answer. Others looking at the same situation could see it otherwise. By comparing trees, analysts can debate specific assumptions in an organized way.

“画一棵树得 B”是涉及决策树的考试的俗语。使用决策树可以看出看似简单问题的复杂性。因此,在四个小时的考试中,仅仅创建一个准确的树框架是一个挑战;需要大量练习才能熟练。

“Draw a tree and get a B” was the saying on exams involving decision trees. The complexity of seemingly simple problems can be seen using decision trees. Therefore, just creating an accurate tree framework was a challenge during a four-hour exam; it takes a lot of practice to become proficient.

决策树石油钻探

(单位:千美元)

THE DECISION TREE OIL DRILLING

(in thousands of dollars)

图片

 

 

现金流量分析

CASH FLOW ANALYSIS

现金流量一词通常与杠杆收购 (LBO) 结合使用,它是财务分析的基础。华尔街的技术人员可能会简要地思考他们投资决策的定性方面,但最终,只有现金结果与他们真正相关。现金流量分析基于会计师的现金流量表所使用的相同信息。现金流量分析回答了这个简单的问题:

The term cash flow is often used in connection with leveraged buyouts (LBOs), and it is the basis of financial analysis. Wall Street technicians may ponder briefly the qualitative aspects of their investment decisions, but ultimately, only the cash consequences have any real relevance for them. Cash flow analysis is based on the same information used by the accountant’s Statement of Cash Flows. Cash flow analysis answers the simple question:

 

 

投资成本是多少,每年会产生多少现金?

What does the investment cost and how much cash will it generate each year?

 

 

公司产生的现金可用于偿还债务、支付股息、投资研究、购买新设备或投资房地产开发。目标是确定给定案例场景中现金流量的时间和数量。

The cash generated by a company can be used to pay off debt, pay dividends, invest in research, purchase new equipment, or invest in a real estate development. The goal is to determine when and how much cash flows in a given case scenario.

在进行投资时,可能会考虑多个目标,但现金流量分析本身只关注美元。例如,一家公司的广告可能会在公众中创造商誉,但如果收益不能用美元来衡量,那么现金流量分析就不合适了。

In making an investment there may be several objectives in mind, but cash flow analysis concerns itself only with the dollars. A company’s advertising may create goodwill with the public, for example, but if the benefits cannot be measured in dollars, cash flow analysis is not appropriate.

现金流量分析与购买一台机器和收购一家公司一样重要。因此,让我们重申第一个问题:

Cash flow analysis is as relevant to the purchase of a piece of machinery as it is to the acquisition of a corporation. So let us restate the first question asked:

目前的投资是多少,未来的收益是多少?

What is the current investment and what are the future benefits?

回答问题的步骤是:

The steps to answer the question are:

 

 

1.定义投资价值

1. Define the value of the investment

2.计算收益大小

2. Calculate the magnitude of the benefits

3.确定受益时间

3. Determine the timing of the benefits

4.量化收益的不确定性

4. Quantify the uncertainty of the benefits

5. 好处值得等待吗?

5. Do the benefits justify the wait?

需要考虑的一个重要问题是现金流量分析显示的是现金流量,而不是利润。例如,硅谷一家成功的计算机初创公司的“会计”利润可能为 300 万美元。但如果公司需要 2000 万美元的研究投资和 3000 万美元的建厂费用,公司实际上是现金净用户。在这种情况下,公司的盈利能力在于未来。

One important issue to consider is that cash flow analysis indicates cash flows, not profits. For example, a successful computer start-up company in Silicon Valley may be making an “accounting” profit of $3 million. But if the company requires a $20 million investment in research and a $30 million outlay to build a factory, the company is actually a net user of cash. In this case the company’s profitability lies in the future.

损益表中报告的会计利润是在短于投资生命周期的时间范围内对投资的短期衡量,而现金流量分析是一种用于在项目生命周期内评估单个项目的技术。

Accounting profits, as reported in the income statement, are a short-term measurement of an investment in a time frame shorter than the life of the investment, whereas cash flow analysis is a technique used to evaluate individual projects over the life of the project.

需要以下具体信息来量化项目的初始现金流量:

The following specific information would be required to quantify the initial cash flows of a project:

 

 

现金用途

Cash Uses

  • 建设成本
  • Construction Costs
  • 初始存货
  • Initial Inventory Stock
  • 设备采购
  • Equipment Purchases
  • 应收账款增加(允许客户向您借款以购买卖给他们的商品)
  • Increases in Accounts Receivable (allowing customers to borrow from you for goods sold to them)

现金来源

Cash Sources

  • 设备销售(如果处置)
  • Sales of Equipment (if disposed of)
  • 应付账款增加(从供应商处借用购买的材料)
  • Increases in Accounts Payable (borrowing from suppliers on materials purchased)

确定项目生命周期内的现金使用:

To determine the cash uses during the life of the project:

 

 

现金来源

Cash Sources

  • 收入或销售额
  • Revenues or Sales
  • 版税
  • Royalties

 

 

现金用途

Cash Uses

  • 销货成本
  • Costs of Goods Sold
  • 销售成本
  • Selling Costs
  • 一般和行政费用
  • General and Administrative Costs
  • 税收
  • Taxes

出现在损益表中的折旧与现金流量分析无关。折旧是一种会计津贴,表示如果一件设备的使用寿命为五年,则每年使用成本的五分之一可以从收入中扣除。在现金流量分析中,现金用于今天购买机器,因此在购买时显示为现金使用。折旧仅适用于减少“会计收入”,从而减少用于纳税的“现金”。在会计章节的 Bob's Market 示例中,商店将其收银机和购物车支出了 10 年,即使它们是在商店开业时支付的。

Depreciation, which appears in income statements, is not relevant in cash flow analysis. Depreciation is an accounting allowance that says that if a piece of equipment has a useful life of five years, then one fifth of the cost in each year of use can be deducted from income. In a cash flow analysis, hard cash is used to buy the machine today, therefore it is shown as a use of cash at the time of purchase. Depreciation is only applicable inasmuch as it is used to reduce “accounting income,” thereby reducing the “cash” out the door for taxes. In the Bob’s Market example in the accounting chapter, the store expensed its cash registers and shopping carts over ten years even though they were paid for at the store’s opening.

第二个重点是融资成本不包括在现金流量分析中。投资决策与融资决策是分开的。在通用电气,有数以千计的项目和多种融资方式——债务(债券、银行债务)和股票。将债务与个别项目相匹配是不可能的。实际上,财务部门借钱来满足其当前的所有企业需求,而决定采用哪些项目的是资本预算部门。如果将这两个决定联系起来,所有通过债务融资的项目看起来都会比那些预先支付现金的项目好得多,尽管它们在本质上是一样的。

A second important point is that financing costs are not included in cash flow analysis. The investment decision is separate from the financing decision. At General Electric there are thousands of projects and many classes of financing—debt (bonds, bank debt) and stock. To match debt with individual projects would be impossible. In reality, the finance department borrows to meet all of its current corporate needs, and it is the capital budgeting department that decides which projects to adopt. If the two decisions were linked, all projects that were financed by debt would look much better than those for which cash is paid up front, even though in substance they are the same.

 

 

现金流示例

A CASH FLOW EXAMPLE

Quaker Oats 正在考虑为其位于堪萨斯城的工厂投资 100,000 美元购买谷物灌装机。纤维热潮刺激了对燕麦片的需求,以至于耗尽了工厂的产能。如果购买了这台机器,每年可以增加 80,000 美元的谷物销售额。销售商品的成本仅为 20,000 美元,所得利润将按 30% 征税。增加的销售额还需要持有 10,000 美元的库存。奎克将通过增加 8,000 美元的应付给农民的燕麦和 Smurfit-Stone Container 的盒子来抵消现金的使用,从而获得 2,000 美元的额外现金投资。

Quaker Oats is considering a $100,000 investment in a cereal filling machine for its plant in Kansas City. The fiber craze has spurred the demand for oatmeal to the point of exhausting plant capacity. If the machine is purchased, additional cereal sales of $80,000 could be made each year. The cost of goods sold is only $20,000 and the profits derived would be taxed at 30 percent. The increased sales will also require holding $10,000 in inventory. Quaker will partially offset that use of cash by increasing its payables by $8,000 to farmers for the oats and Smurfit-Stone Container for the boxes to net a $2,000 additional cash investment.

三年后,机器将磨损,但该设备对墨西哥的一家制粉公司仍然有用。Quaker 计划以 10,000 美元的价格将其出售给 Molino Grande。

At the end of three years the machine will be worn-out, but the equipment will still be useful to a milling company in Mexico. Quaker plans to sell it to Molino Grande at a price of $10,000.

桂格燕麦灌装机项目的现金流时间安排

THE TIMING OF CASH FLOWS QUAKER OATS FILLING MACHINE PROJECT

(以千美元计)

(in thousands of dollars)

图片

 

 

在这个例子中,现金流的时间对于确定项目的价值至关重要。现金流时间的常用表示法是条形图。每个时期,累积现金流量反映在现金投资线以下或回报线以上。我们的 Quaker 示例显示在以下条形图中:

In this example the timing of cash flows is critical to determining the project’s value. A commonly used representation of the timing of cash flows is a bar graph. Each period, cumulative cash flow is reflected either below the line for cash investments or above the line for returns. Our Quaker example is shown in the following bar graph:

图片

假设现金流量相同,但现金的时间提前如下:

Suppose that the cash flows are the same but the timing of the cash is advanced as follows:

图片

或延长如下:

or prolonged as follows:

图片

这些图表提出了时序“价值”的关键问题。

These diagrams raise the critical issue of the “value” of timing.

 

 

累积价值

ACCUMULATED VALUE

当铣削项目产生现金时,桂格会对其进行再投资,而不是让它闲置。因此,如果贵格会如前所述收到 51,000 美元、51,000 美元和 61,000 美元,公司在情景 A 中的现金收入比情景 B 多两年。

When the milling project produces cash, Quaker reinvests it rather than let it remain idle. Therefore if Quaker receives $51,000, $51,000, and $61,000 as described earlier, the company earns income with the cash for two more years in Scenario A than in Scenario B.

如果公司有收益率为 10% 的投资机会,那么方案 A 将比方案 B 多产生 34,230 美元。

If the company has investment opportunities that yield 10 percent, then Scenario A will produce $34,230 more than Scenario B.

这些流量在三年期末的累计价值为 163,000 美元加上赚取的利息 34,230 美元,即 197,230 美元。情景 A 显然是更好的情景。

The flows have an accumulated value at the end of three years of $163,000 plus earned interest of $34,230 that equals $197,230. Scenario A is clearly the better scenario.

一个更简单的计算是使用美元的累计价值或未来价值的公式:

A simpler calculation is to use the formula for the accumulated value or future value of a dollar:

 

 

美元在x期的未来价值= ($ 今天) × (1 +再投资率)期数

Future Value of a $ in x periods = ($ today) × (1 + Reinvestment Rate)Number of Periods

在 10% 时,1 年的系数= 1 美元× (1 + .10)1 = 1.10。

At 10% the factor for 1 year = $1 × (1 + .10)1 = 1.10.

您不必每次都记住这些因素或计算它们——您可以使用附录中提供的表格或任何基本的商业计算器。(在我看来,最好的计算器是惠普。拥有 HP,MBA 图标,也向其他人发出强烈信号,表明你对数字很认真。)

You don’t have to memorize the factors or calculate them each time—you can use the tables provided in the appendix, or any basic business calculator. (The best calculator in my opinion is the Hewlett-Packard. Owning an HP, an MBA icon, also sends a strong signal to others that you are serious about numbers.)

根据附录中的表格,不同利率和 10% 投资期限的累计价值因子为:

Per the tables in the Appendix, the accumulated value factors for varying rates and investment periods at 10 percent are:

累积因素

ACCUMULATION FACTORS

今天   1 美元=今天 1   美元

$1 today   =   $1 today

1 美元投资   =   1 年 1.100 美元

$1 invested   =   $1.100 in 1 year

1 美元投资   =   2 年内 1.210 美元

$1 invested   =   $1.210 in 2 years

 

 

使用我们在情景 A 中的因素,在第 1 年末收到并投资两年至第 3 年末的 163,000 美元的累计价值为:

Using our factors on Scenario A, on the $163,000 received at the end of Year 1 and invested for two years till the end of Year 3, the accumulated value is:

 

 

第 1 年的 163,000 美元× 1.2100 = 2 年后的 197,230 美元或 197,230美元 163,000美元= 34,230美元的再投资收入

Year 1’s $163,000 × 1.2100 = $197,230 in 2 years or $197,230 $163,000 = $34,230 of reinvestment income

累计值计算

ACCUMULATED VALUE CALCULATION

图片

在评估延伸到未来的项目或投资时,重要的不仅是现金流量的大小,还包括这些现金流可以再投资的时间和后续用途。

When evaluating projects or investments that extend into the future, it is not only the magnitude of the cash flows that is important, but also the timing and the subsequent use to which those flows can be reinvested.

 

 

净现值 (NPV)

NET PRESENT VALUE (NPV)

累积价值分析是确定退休人员今天需要投资多少才能在三十年后获得足够养老金的好工具,但它并不能解决当今评估投资和项目的问题。投资需要以今天的美元来评估。今天 Quaker 的铣削项目值多少钱?它与价值 150,000 美元但可以使用四年的类似设备相比如何?

Accumulated value analysis is a good tool to determine how much a retiree needs to invest today to have an adequate pension in thirty years, but it doesn’t solve the problem of evaluating investments and projects today. Investments need to be evaluated in today’s dollars. How much is Quaker’s milling project worth today? How does it compare to a similar piece of equipment that costs $150,000 but lasts four years?

现金流量分析确定流量,NPV 技术以今天的美元对其进行估值。这样,无论时间如何,都可以比较不同的项目。

Cash flow analysis determines the flows and the NPV technique values them in today’s dollars. In that way different projects can be compared regardless of timing.

例如,如果 Apple Computer 知道一款新的 Tangerine 电脑肯定会获得 50 亿美元的成功,但它需要十年的时间来开发,那么投资这个项目可能就没有意义了。这 50 亿美元不仅会因通货膨胀而贬值,而且苹果还可以用这笔钱投资机器人技术,这将节省苹果今天的生产成本。即使 NPV 分析证明了 Tangerine 的合理性,也可能有战略原因掩盖了它。这就是 MBA 必须使用管理判断的地方。

If Apple Computer, for example, knows that a new Tangerine computer will be a surefire $5 billion hit, but that it will take ten years to develop, it may not make sense to invest in this project. Not only will that $5 billion be worth less due to inflation, but Apple could also use the money to invest in robotics, which will save Apple production costs today. Even if an NPV analysis justifies the Tangerine, there may be strategic reasons that overshadow it. That’s where the MBA must use management judgment.

证券分析师将股票和债券视为设备购买。股票提供股息支付,债券提供未来的利息支付。证券的价值在于其未来现金流量的现值。正如 Quaker Oats 使用 NPV 分析来评估购买新生产设备的优点一样,公司评估新工厂以及增加广告的价值。参与过失致死诉讼的律师在考虑和解时可以使用净现值技术来评估个人未来收入的总额。要记住的基本思想是:今天的一美元比将来收到的一美元更有价值。

Securities analysts see stocks and bonds as an equipment purchase. The stocks provide dividend payments and bonds provide interest payments in the future. The securities’ values lie in the present value of their future cash flow. Just as Quaker Oats uses NPV analysis to evaluate the merits of buying a new piece of production equipment, corporations evaluate new factories, and the worth of increased advertising. Lawyers involved in wrongful death suits can use net present value techniques to value the total of an individual’s future earnings when considering a settlement. The basic idea to remember is: A dollar today is worth more than a dollar received in the future.

桂格燕麦项目在三年 (51 + 51 + 61) 中产生了 163,000 美元。如前所述,如果将产生的现金以 10% 的利率再投资于其他公司项目或计息投资,则 163,000 美元的现金流量将额外产生 34,230 美元。您愿意为三年后收到的 163,000 美元支付 163,000 美元吗?当然不是!您将放弃金钱的时间价值,即 34,230 美元。

The Quaker Oats project yielded $163,000 over three years (51 + 51 + 61). As previously calculated, the $163,000 in cash flows would yield an additional $34,230 if the cash produced was reinvested at a rate of 10 percent in other company projects or an interest-bearing investment. Would you pay $163,000 for $163,000 to be received over three years? Of course not! You would be giving up the time value of money, or $34,230.

使用这个简单的逻辑,NPV 分析采用未来的现金流量并将它们贴现到它们的当前值。这是累积价值的倒数。公式如下:

Using this simple logic, NPV analysis takes future cash flows and discounts them to their present-day value. This is the inverse of accumulated value. The formula is as follows:

 

 

NPV = ($ in Future) × (1 +贴现率) 期数

NPV = ($ in Future) × (1 + Discount Rate) Number of periods

一年后收到的一美元,贴现率为 10%,价值:

One dollar received one year from now, with a discount rate of 10 percent, would be worth:

 

 

$1 × (1 + .10) 1 = .90909

$1 × (1 + .10)1 = .90909

使用此公式,贴现因子表告诉您 1 美元在不同利率和不同时期的 NPV。考虑到可用的 10% 再投资机会和项目的风险,根据公式和表格,未来 1 美元在今天的价值如下:

Using this formula, tables of discount factors tell the NPV of $1 at varying rates and for varying periods. Considering the 10 percent reinvestment opportunities available and the project’s riskiness, $1 in the future is worth the following amounts today per the formula and tables:

折扣因素

DISCOUNT FACTORS

今天   1 美元=今天 1   美元

$1 today   =   $1 today

1 年 1 美元   =   今天 0.90909 美元

$1 in 1 year   =   $.90909 today

2 年后   1 美元=   今天 0.82645 美元

$1 in 2 years   =   $.82645 today

3 年后   1 美元=   今天的 .75131 美元

$1 in 3 years   =   $.75131 today

 

 

桂格项目的现金流量将按以下方式估值:

The cash flows of the Quaker project would be valued in the following way:

未来现金×贴现系数= NPV

FUTURE CASH × DISCOUNT FACTOR = NPV

第 0 年开始      102,000 美元×   1    =   今天 102,000 美元

Start Year 0      $102,000×   1   =   $102,000 today

第 1 年 $51,000    ×   .90909    =    今天 $46,363.59

in year 1   $51,000   ×   .90909   =    $46,363.59 today

第 2 年 $51,000    ×   .82645    =    今天 $42,148.95

in year 2   $51,000   ×   .82645   =    $42,148.95 today

第 3 年 $61,000    ×   .75131    =    今天 $45,829.91

in year 3   $61,000   ×   .75131   =    $45,829.91 today

Quaker 项目 NPV    =    今天的 32,342.45 美元

The Quaker project NPV   =    $32,342.45 today

 

 

任何项目的评估都取决于现金流量的大小、时间贴现率,在我们的例子中是 10%。

The evaluation of any project depends on the magnitude of the cash flows, the timing, and the discount rate, 10 percent in our case.

贴现率是非常主观的。比率或门槛比率越高,未来的一美元在今天的价值越低(见附录)。之所以称为门槛利率,是因为具有更高贴现率的项目必须在未来产生更多现金才能与今天的价值相同。因此,该项目有更高的障碍来保持平衡。在投资结果存在风险的情况下,如我们的油井示例,较高的贴现率是合适的。如果投资的结果是确定的,例如投资于省力设备或美国国债,则有必要采用较低的利率。不受 MBA 专业知识指导的公司将只使用一个门槛率来做出所有投资决策,从而忽略项目的相对风险。他们最终拒绝确定的事情,并追逐高风险的项目。项目的风险应决定贴现率。稳定的公司可以以低利率借款,但他们可以投资于有风险的项目。

The discount rate is highly subjective. The higher the rate or hurdle rate, the less a dollar in the future would be worth today (see the appendix). It is called a hurdle rate because a project with a higher discount rate must generate more cash in the future to be worth the same value of today. The project thus has a higher hurdle to jump to stay even. In cases where the outcome of an investment is risky, as in our oil well example, a higher discount rate is appropriate. If the outcome of an investment is certain, as in the investment in a laborsaving device or in a U.S. Treasury bond, a lower rate is warranted. Companies not guided by an MBA’s expertise will use only one hurdle rate for all investment decisions and thereby ignore the relative riskiness of projects. They end up rejecting sure things, and chasing high-risk projects. Under no circumstances should the interest rate of a company’s bank debt be the rate that is used, unless it is just coincidence. The risk of the project should determine the discount rate. Stable companies can borrow at low interest rates, but they can invest in risky projects.

 

 

内部收益率 (IRR)

INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN (IRR)

IRR 是 NPV 的导数。简单地说:投资的内部收益率是未来贴现现金流量等于今天投资价值的比率。

IRR is a derivative of NPV. Simply stated: The internal rate of return of an investment is the rate at which the discounted cash flows in the future equal the value of the investment today.

要找到 IRR,必须尝试不同的贴现率,直到 NPV 等于零。(当然,HP 计算器只需按一下按钮即可得出 IRR!)对于 Quaker 项目,IRR 为 26.709%。为了确认这个数字,我们可以计算以下内容:

To find the IRR one must try different discount rates until the NPV equals zero. (Of course the HP calculator yields the IRR at a push of a button!) For the Quaker project the IRR is 26.709 percent. To confirm that number we can calculate the following:

使用“26.709% 的折扣因子”

USING “26.709% DISCOUNT FACTORS”

今天 1.00    ×    102,000    =    102,000 美元

today   1.00   ×    102,000   =   $102,000

1 年 .78920    ×    51,000   美元= 40,250    美元

1 year   .78920   ×    $51,000   =    $40,250

2 年 .62285    ×    51,000   美元=    31,765 美元

2 years   .62285   ×    $51,000   =    $31,765

3 年 .49155    ×    61,000   美元=    29,985 美元

3 years   .49155   ×    $61,000   =    $29,985

                                          净现值   =    0

                                          NPV   =    0

 

 

使用 IRR 对项目进行排名很有用,但它没有考虑价值的大小。具有高比例回报的小投资将比具有足够回报的大投资排名更高。如果通用电气分配了 10 亿美元用于研究,它需要将大量资金部署到 IRR 可能较低的大型项目中。

Using IRR to rank projects is useful, but it does not consider the magnitude of the values. A small investment with proportionately large returns would be ranked higher than large investments with adequate returns. If General Electric has a billion dollars allocated to research, it needs to deploy large sums of money to large projects that may have lower IRRs.

按 IRR 排名也忽略了 NPV 分析中使用的阈值率或贴现因子。正如我所说,这些障碍率会根据风险进行调整。在所有条件相同的情况下,桂格对设备的投资可能比默克对瑞典癌症疗法的高度投机性研究具有更低的内部收益率,但桂格项目可能具有更高的净现值。由于涉及的风险较低,设备项目较小的现金流量将按 10% 的折现率折现。这可能会导致更高的净现值。癌症研究将使用 50% 的高贴现率进行评估。请记住,贴现率越高,现金今天的价值就越低,隐含的风险就越大。

Ranking by IRR also neglects the hurdle rates or discount factors used in NPV analysis. Those hurdle rates, as I said, adjust for risk. All things being equal, the investment in equipment by Quaker may have a lower IRR than highly speculative research into a Swedish cancer cure by Merck, but the Quaker project could have a higher NPV. The equipment project’s smaller cash flows would be discounted at a 10 percent rate because of the lower risk involved. This could result in higher NPV. The cancer research would be assessed using a high discount rate of 50 percent. Remember, the higher the discount rate, the less the cash is worth today and the more risk is implied.

 

 

概率论

PROBABILITY THEORY

概率论是统计的一个很好的术语,即使是商学院中最聪明的注册会计师,这门学科也会让他们感到恐惧。实际上,概率论是一个更准确的术语,因为它描述了如何使用统计数据来解决问题。考虑到开采石油的可能性,山姆应该怎么做?在排名前十的八百名已婚 MBA 学生中,有多少配偶可能在 MBA 课程的第一年被忽视?都是概率论。因为大多数商人回避统计数据,这是一个机会让 MBA 脱颖而出。我在本科时选修了统计学课程,但几乎什么都没学到,因为我学的是理论,而不是解决问题。MBA 课程侧重于统计的实践方面,倾向于将理论留给数学家来解决。如果您不熟悉统计学,请不要跳过本节。我不能让你在几页中精通统计学,但如果你给它一些耐心阅读的机会,我向你保证,你将有足够的学科知识来在适当的时候寻求帮助。MBA 教育的主旨是让学生掌握不同学科的工作知识,为他们做好准备。在仅仅两年的时间里,教授们不希望他们的学生成为技术专家,但他们希望他们认识到在解决特定问题时应该在哪里寻求专家的帮助。

Probability theory is a nice term for statistics, the subject that creates fear in the hearts of even the brightest CPAs in business schools. Actually, probability theory is a more accurate term because it describes how statistics are used to solve problems. Given the probabilities of striking oil, what should Sam do? Out of eight hundred married MBA students in the Top Ten programs, how many spouses are likely to be ignored during the first year of the MBA program? It’s all probability theory. Because most businesspeople shy away from statistics, here is an opportunity for MBAs to excel. I took a statistics course as an undergraduate and learned virtually nothing because I was taught theory, not problem solving. MBA programs concentrate on the practical aspects of statistics and tend to leave theory for mathematicians to sort out. If you are not familiar with statistics, do not skip this section. I cannot make you statistically proficient in a few pages, but if you give it a chance with some patient reading, I promise you that you will have enough working knowledge of the discipline to ask for help whenever appropriate. Preparing students by giving them a working knowledge of different subjects is the main thrust of an MBA education. In only two years, professors do not expect their students to become technical experts, but they expect them to recognize where they should seek the help of an expert to solve a particular problem.

 

 

概率分布

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

在可能有多种结果的情况下,结果是结果的分布。每种可能性都被分配了一个概率。通过仔细的分析、直觉和判断,任何事件的所有可能结果加起来都是 100%,就像决策树的事件叉一样。显示结果分布的图形称为概率质量密度函数。如果有很多可能的结果,则曲线是平滑的,称为概率密度函数。如果只有几个,则绘制一条不均匀的曲线,称为概率质量函数。

In situations where multiple outcomes are possible, the result is a distribution of outcomes. Each possibility is assigned a probability. Through careful analysis, intuition, and judgment, all the possible outcomes of any event add up to 100 percent, like the event fork of a decision tree. The graph that shows a distribution of outcomes is called a probability mass or density function. If there are many possible outcomes, the curve is smooth and is called a probability density function. If there are only a few, an uneven curve is drawn, called a probability mass function.

 

 

降雨示例。西雅图的降雨是一个导致概率分布的事件。使用假设数据,西雅图的降雨量在下面的表格和概率分布图中如下所示。

A Rainfall Example. Rainfall in Seattle is an event resulting in a probability distribution. Seattle’s rainfall, using hypothetical data, looked as follows in a table and in probability distribution charts below.

2010 年 3 月西雅图每日降雨量测量

SEATTLE DAILY RAIN MEASUREMENTS MARCH 2010

图片

 

 

2010 年 3 月(31 天)

西雅图每日降雨量的概率质量函数

PROBABILITY MASS FUNCTION OF RAIN MEASURES

daily rainfall in seattle

march 2010 (31 days)

图片

 

 

二项分布

THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

抛硬币有两种可能性,正面或反面。因此,如果您认为“正面”是成功的,那么两次抛硬币的结果分布可能有多种可能的结果。

Flipping a coin results in two possibilities, heads or tails. Therefore the distribution of outcomes of two coin flippings could have several possible outcomes if you consider “heads” a success.

 

 

2 次成功,正面/正面

2 successes, Heads/Heads

1 次成功/1 次失败,正面/反面,反面/正面

1 success/1 failure, Heads/Tails, Tails/Heads

2 次失败,尾巴/尾巴

2 failures, Tails/Tails

 

 

抛硬币产生最基本的分布,称为二项分布。二项式分布中有两种结果,成功和失败,每种结果发生的可能性均等。

Coin flipping gives rise to the most basic of distributions, called a binomial distribution. There are two outcomes in a binomial distribution, success and failure, each with an equal likelihood of occurring.

看似神秘的二项式分布理论可以应用于股票市场分析等实际工作。股票分析的成功将是一个月内股票的正回报,失败将是亏损或盈亏平衡。在对 1957 年至 1977 年旧 AT&T 股价的历史研究中,每个月都被检查以确定正回报率。结果发现,56.7% 的时间是成功的。

Seemingly arcane binomial distribution theories can be applied to such practical pursuits as stock market analysis. Success in a stock analysis would be a positive return on a stock in a month, and failure would be a loss or break even. In a historical study of the old AT&T share prices from 1957 to 1977, each month was examined to determine the rate of positive returns. It was found that 56.7 percent of the time there was a success.

所研究的月份被分为每个三个月(季度)。研究人员指出,实际成功的频率如下:

The months studied were grouped into periods of three months each (quarters). Researchers noted that the frequency of actual successes was as follows:

图片

 

 

一位抛硬币的数学家创建了数字表来解决所有二项式分布问题。在 AT&T 案例中,使用二项式表所需的信息是:

A coin-flipping mathematician created tables of numbers to solve all binomial distribution problems. In the AT&T case, the information needed to use a binomial table is:

 

 

r =可能的成功次数= 0 到 3

r = number of successes possible = 0 to 3

n =试验次数= 3(一个季度 3 个月)

n = number of trials = 3 (3 months in a quarter)

p =成功概率= 56.7%

p = probability of success = 56.7%

 

 

使用此信息,二项式表预测预期结果应该是:

Using this information, a binomial table predicts that the expected outcomes should be:

图片

令人惊讶的是,二项式分布与 AT&T 案例的实际结果相当吻合。给定成功概率(p)的猜测,可以从表中读取给定季度的正月回报率。因此,二项分布在评估投资组合经理、销售总监和研究分析师的概率方面具有实际应用。

Surprisingly, the binomial distribution matches rather well the actual results of the AT&T case. Given a guess of probability of success (p), the probability of positive monthly returns in a given quarter could be read off the table. Binomial distribution therefore has practical applications for assessing probabilities for portfolio managers, sales directors, and research analysts.

 

 

正态分布:钟形曲线的奥秘

THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION: THE MYSTERY OF THE BELL CURVE

正态分布是使用最广泛的分布,最常被称为钟形曲线。在哈佛,钟形曲线用于确定成绩。曲线表明 15% 的班级接受“低通”(“循环”)。在达顿学院,教授们会根据自己的判断给出不令人满意的 C 或 F 分数。结果是两个竞争环境截然不同的校园。

The normal distribution is the most widely used distribution and is most commonly known as the bell curve. At Harvard the bell curve is used to determine grades. The curve dictates that 15 percent of the class receive “Low Passes” (“loops”). At the Darden School, the professors use their judgment to dole out unsatisfactory marks of C or F. The result is two campuses with vastly different competitive environments.

概率质量函数基于多次试验时,曲线趋于填充并变成钟形。我们称之为概率密度函数。描述西雅图降雨量的两张图表就是这种情况。中间的驼峰是由中心极限定理引起的。它指出“重复独立样本的平均值的分布将采取钟形正态分布的形式。” 为什么?很简单,因为大量的独立样本趋向于一个中心平均。

When a probability mass function is based on many trials, the curve tends to fill in and become bell-shaped. We call this a probability density function. Such was the case with the two graphs describing rainfall in Seattle. The hump in the middle is caused by the Central Limit Theorem. It states that “the distribution of averages of repeated independent samples will take the form of the bell-shaped normal distribution.” Why? Simply because a large number of independent samples tend to a central average.

钟形分级曲线

THE BELL-SHAPED GRADING CURVE

图片

“样本平均值”的概念非常模糊。在案例应用程序中,定义扩展到包括任何大型数据组。为什么?因为正态分布非常易于使用,而且无论如何都非常接近现实。股票价格是许多市场波动的结果,最终导致回报(盈利或亏损)。回报可以被认为是这些市场波动的“平均”。几乎任何东西都可以合理化为平均值,因此正态分布很有用。

The concept of “averages of samples” is pretty vague. In case applications the definition expands to include any large group of data. Why? Because the normal distribution is so easy to use and closely approximates reality anyway. Stock prices are the result of many market fluctuations that culminate in a return (profit or loss). The return can be considered an “average” of those market fluctuations. Just about anything can be rationalized as an average, hence the usefulness of normal distributions.

降雨测量的概率密度函数1970-2010

年西雅图的每日降雨量

(14,600 天)

PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION OF RAIN MEASUREMENTS

daily rainfall in seattle

1970–2010 (14,600 days)

图片

正态曲线的测量。钟形曲线由两项描述,均值及其标准差(SD)。平均值 (µ) 是曲线的中心。平均数通常称为平均值。它是将数据相加并除以数据点数的结果。标准偏差 (σ) 是曲线出现的宽度。SD 也可以描述为“平均值的变异性”的度量。这两个术语是大多数概率概念的核心。

Measures of the Normal Curve. The bell-shaped curve is described by two terms, the mean and its standard deviation (SD). The mean (µ) is the center of the curve. The mean is commonly called the average. It is the result of adding up the data and dividing by the number of data points. The standard deviation (σ) is how wide the curve appears. The SD can also be described as a measure of the “variability from the mean.” These two terms are central to most probability concepts.

其他较少使用的一组数据平均值的度量是中位数,如果按大小排序,列表中间的项目,以及众数即数据集中出现最频繁的项目。

Other less-used measures of averages for a set of data are the median, the item in the middle of the list if sorted by size, and the mode, the item occurring most frequently in a data set.

具有不同标准差曲线的概率密度函数

PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTIONS WITH CURVES OF DIFFERENT STANDARD DEVIATIONS

图片

与二项分布一样,曲线下区域表示的所有结果的总和等于 100%。正态分布曲线的特殊之处在于,对于任何远离均值或中心的给定 SD 度量,无论正态分布的形状如何,事件都存在相同的概率。

As with the binomial distribution, the sum of all the outcomes as represented by the region under the curve equals 100 percent. What makes the normal distribution’s curve special is that for any given SD measure away from the mean or the center, the same probability exists for an event despite the normal distribution’s shape.

 

 

正态分布零售示例。鞋店老板 Al Bundy 想要确保他有足够的库存来满足所有尺码的要求。他从 Academy of Feet 购买了一份关于女士鞋码的研究报告,并从调查回复中收到了一堆研究数据。

Normal Distribution Retailing Example. Al Bundy, a shoe store owner, wants to make sure he has enough stock for all size requests. He purchased a study of ladies’ shoe sizes from the Academy of Feet and received a stack of research data from survey responses.

他将数据绘制在方格纸上,结果显示为正态分布。他还在计算器中输入了尺寸系列,然后按下“标准偏差”键。答案是 2。Al 还取了所有调查受访者体型的平均值,发现它是 7。查看他创建的图表,他发现它看起来像我们可靠的正态分布。

He plotted the data on graph paper and it appeared as a normal distribution. He also entered the series of sizes in his calculator and hit the “Standard Deviation” key. The answer was 2. Al also took the average or mean of all the survey’s respondents’ sizes and found it to be 7. Looking at the graph he created, he saw that it looked like our trusty normal distribution.

鞋码的正态分布

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION OF SHOE SIZES

图片

仅仅通过识别形状,Al 就可以应用正态分布曲线的规律。管理所有正态曲线下面积的定律如下:

Just by recognizing the shape, Al could apply the laws of the normal distribution curve. The laws governing the area under all normal curves are the following:

 

 

1 标准差= .3413

1  SD = .3413

2 标准差= .4772

2  SD = .4772

3 标准差= .49865

3  SD = .49865

4 标准差= .4999683

4  SD = .4999683

 

 

使用这些规则,如果 Bundy 先生的股票规模为 5 到 9,则他覆盖了 0.6826 (2 × 0.3413) 的人口。将尺寸增加到 3 到 11,他已经覆盖了 0.9544 英尺。如果 Al 库存 1 到 13 号尺码,他店里 0.9973 的顾客会对他的选择感到满意。他总是可以特别订购 1 到 13 码以外的那些脚。

Using these rules, if Mr. Bundy stocks sizes 5 to 9 he has covered .6826 (2 × .3413) of the population. Increasing the sizes to 3 to 11, he has covered .9544 of the feet out there. If Al stocked sizes 1 to 13, .9973 of customers at his store would be satisfied with his selection. He can always special-order for those feet beyond sizes 1 to 13.

当然,已经开发了正态分布表来确定曲线上任何特定点(远离均值的非整数 SD)的概率。要使用这些表,必须计算Z 值。

Of course normal distribution tables have been developed to determine the probability for any specific point on the curve (noninteger SDs away from the mean). To use the tables, a Z value must be calculated.

图片

正态曲线金融示例

A NORMAL CURVE FINANCE EXAMPLE

让我们将这些新的概率论应用于金融。波动较大的股票 Pioneer Aviation 的月度股票回报假设呈正态分布,如图所示。历史回报摘要显示均值(中心)为 1%,标准差(离散)为 11%。Gerald Rasmussen 想知道下个月的回报率低于 13% 的概率是多少。

Let’s apply these new pieces of probability theory to finance. The monthly stock returns of a volatile stock, Pioneer Aviation, are assumed normally distributed as shown by a plotted graph. A summary of historical returns shows a mean (center) of 1 percent and an SD (dispersion) of 11 percent. Gerald Rasmussen wanted to know what was the probability that next month’s return would be less than 13 percent.

先锋航空的概率密度函数

月度股票收益

THE PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION

Monthly Stock Returns of Pioneer Aviation

图片

使用我们新的 Z 值工具,我们可以弄清楚:

Using our new Z value tool we can figure it out:

图片

我在附录中提供的正态分布表告诉我们 1.09 SDs = .3621。图表的整个左侧等于 .5000,就像分布的任何完整一半一样。这在所有情况下都适用。在任何正态分布中,有 50% 的机会高于或低于中心或均值。结合这些信息,我计算出回报率低于 13% 的概率为 .8621 (.3621 + .50),相反,回报率高于 (1 .8621)的概率为 .1379 . 这是使用统计数据作为我们的工具对现实世界业务问题的真实答案。

The normal distribution table I have provided in the appendix tells us that 1.09 SDs = .3621. The entire left side of the graph equals .5000, as any complete half of the distribution would. This holds true in all situations. There is a 50 percent chance of being above or below the center or mean in any normal distribution. Combining those pieces of information, I calculate there is an .8621 (.3621 + .50) probability that there will be a return of less than 13 percent, and conversely a .1379 chance that it will be greater (1 .8621). This is a real-world answer to a real-world business problem using statistics as our tools.

先锋航空的概率密度函数

月度股票收益

THE PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION

Monthly Stock Returns of Pioneer Aviation

图片

如果您不在理论上停留太久,统计并不难。存在其他发行版,但很少在商业中使用。Poison 分布(发音为“ pwasaun”)与正态分布相似,但在图形的右侧有一个张开的尾巴。但大多数分布都假定为正态分布,以利用正态分布的标准差定律。

Statistics is not difficult if you do not dwell too long on theory. Other distributions exist, but are rarely used in business. The Poison distribution (pronounced “pwasaun”) is similar to the normal distribution but has a flaring tail on the right side of the graph. But most distributions are assumed to be normal to take advantage of the normal distribution’s laws of standard deviations.

 

 

累积分布函数

CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS

累积分布函数(CDF) 是概率分布的累积视图。它采用概率质量函数(例如钟形曲线)并询问“结果小于或等于该值的概率是多少?” 正态曲线告诉您给定结果的概率是多少,但 CDF 告诉您给定值范围的概率。CDF 还可用于将我们的不确定性知识(概率论)与我们的决策工具(决策树)结合起来。CDF 捕获多值不确定量的可能结果范围。

A cumulative distribution function (CDF) is a cumulative view of a probability distribution. It takes a probability mass function, such as a bell curve, and asks, “What is the probability that the outcome is less than or equal to that value?” The normal curve tells you what the probability is for a given outcome, but the CDF tells you the probability for a given range of values. The CDF can also be used to marry our knowledge of uncertainty (probability theory) to our decision-making tool (decision trees). A CDF captures the range of possible outcomes of many-valued uncertain quantities.

继续我们的油井示例,让我们来看看如果开采石油,地下可能存在的石油的可能价值分布:

To continue our oil well example, let’s take the distribution of the possible values of oil that may be in the ground if oil is recovered:

图片

在之前构建的树中,我们使用 1,000,000 美元作为收益。该数量是石油的预期价值 (EMV),因为我方便地选择它作为示例。该分布实际上是一个广泛的值。如价值表所示,获得 6,000,000 美元发薪日的机会为 0.005,获得 50,000 美元的机会为 0.005。如果您在第二列中将每个美元值乘以它们各自的概率,则 EMV 等于 1,000,000 美元,即我们之前使用的 EMV。

In the tree constructed before, we used $1,000,000 as our payoff. That amount was the expected value (EMV) of the oil, because I conveniently chose it for the example. The distribution was actually a wide range of values. There was a .005 chance of a $6,000,000 payday and .005 chance of $50,000 as shown by the table of values. If you multiply each of the dollar values by their individual probabilities in the second column, the EMV equals $1,000,000, the EMV we used before.

构建累积分布函数可以让决策者在不确定开始时的均值或 EMV 时得出均值或 EMV。绘制 CDF 是一种将您对未知结果的上界、中界和下界概率的一系列判断组合起来以得出用于决策的 EMV 的方法。

Constructing a cumulative distribution function allows decision makers to arrive at the mean or EMV when they are not certain what it is to begin with. Drawing a CDF is a method of combining a series of your judgments about the probability of the upper, middle, and lower bounds of an unknown outcome to arrive at an EMV to use for decision making.

结果范围的 CDF 图类似于一个大 S。在 CDF 中,您一眼就能看到所有可能的结果,而不仅仅是静态的单个点。如下图所示,Sam Houston 认为他所有可能的结果都落在 0 美元到 6,000,000 美元的连续“范围”内。

The CDF graph of ranges of outcomes resembles a big S. In the CDF, you see at a glance all the possible outcomes, not just static individual points. As shown by the following graph, Sam Houston believes that all his possible outcomes fall in the continuous “range” of $0 to $6,000,000.

使用括号中值技术将 CDF 中 0 到 1.0 的概率范围划分为分位数或切片。上面的 CDF 就是这样划分的。例如,要将 CDF 概率范围划分为五个分位数,可以采用 .1、.3、.5、.7 和 .9 分位数。这些分位数中的每一个都代表“值范围”的平均值,分别为 0 到 .2、0.2 到 .4、0.4 到 .6、0.6 到 .8 和 .8 到 1.0。

The range of probabilities from 0 to 1.0 in the CDF is divided into fractiles, or slices, using the bracket median technique. The CDF above is divided in that way. To divide the CDF probability ranges into five fractiles, for example, one would take the .1, .3, .5, .7, and .9 fractiles. Each of those fractiles would represent the average of the “ranges of values,” 0 to .2, .2 to .4, .4 to .6, .6 to .8, and .8 to 1.0, respectively.

.5 分位数与中位数相同,因为一半的值位于它的两侧。中位数不一定与我们用作正态分布中心的均值相同。中位数只是值范围的中心。平均值是将所有概率乘以值的结果,正如为了得出石油发现的 1,000,000 美元 EMV 所做的那样。

The .5 fractile is the same as the median, because half of the values are on either side of it. The median is not necessarily the same as the mean we used as the center of the normal distribution. The median is merely the center of the value range. The mean is the result of multiplying all the probabilities by the values, as was done to arrive at the $1,000,000 EMV for an oil discovery.

要将此 CDF 概念与决策树结合以做出重要的管理决策,想象一下您将如何表示一口油井可能产生的所有价值。这将是一个由一系列可能性代表的价值范围。一个人不可能画出树上分支的无限可能,所以我们使用 CDF 来帮忙。

To marry this CDF concept to the decision tree to make important management decisions, imagine how you would represent all the values an oil well may produce. It would be a range of values that would be represented by a fan of possibilities. One could not possibly draw the infinite possibilities of branches on the tree, so we use a CDF to help out.

 

 

绘制 CDF。要绘制如下所示的 CDF,您需要使用自己的判断和研究数据。你需要问自己一系列问题:

Drawing a CDF. To draw a CDF as shown below, you use your own judgment and your research data. You need to ask yourself a series of questions:

 

 

如果结果在 50% 的时间(中位数)高于或低于 50%,会出现什么值?

What value would occur where results are either higher or lower 50 percent of the time (the median)?

低端(0.10 分位数)的价值是多少?

What value would be at the low end (.10 fractile)?

高端(.90 分位数)的价值是多少?

What value would be at the high end (.90 fractile)?

 

 

可能的石油钻探结果的累积密度函数



(以千美元为单位)

CUMULATIVE DENSITY FUNCTION

Values of Possible Oil Drilling Outcomes

(in thousands of $s)

图片

有了这些问题的答案,您就可以得出您认为结果范围的 CDF。通过使用 CDF 中的五个分位数选择五个结果,您可以在决策树上绘制五个可能性和概率的事件扇作为五个分支。

With the answers to these questions, you can draw the CDF of what you believe the range of outcomes is. By picking five outcomes using the five fractiles from the CDF, you can draw the event fan of five possibilities and probabilities on a decision tree as five branches.

预期货币价值与我们第一次复飞时相同,但这只是因为我一开始就方便地使用了正确的 EMV。

The expected monetary value is the same as in our first go-around, but that is only because I conveniently used the correct EMV to begin with.

使用五个分位数的捷径称为Pearson Tukey 方法。该方法不使用五个分位数,而是仅使用三个分位数——0.05、0.5 和 0.95 分位数。它们各自的概率为 0.185、0.63、0.185。

A shortcut to using five fractiles is called the Pearson Tukey Method. Instead of five fractiles, the method uses only three—the .05, .5, and .95 fractiles. Their respective probabilities are .185, .63, .185.

对于大型问题,决策树已通过Monte Carlo模拟程序计算机化,最流行的是 Oracle 的 Crystal Ball。“事件扇”CDF 的树和参数包含在计算机模型中。该程序运行许多模拟,让您了解事情的真实结果。一些财富 500 强公司使用它。理财规划师用它来评估投资组合的长期回报。

For large problems the decision tree has been computerized by Monte Carlo simulation programs, the most popular being Oracle’s Crystal Ball. The tree and the parameters of the “event fan” CDFs are included in the computer model. The program runs many simulations to give you an idea of how things may really turn out. Some Fortune 500 companies use it. Financial planners use it to evaluate long-term returns on investment portfolios.

使用累积分布函数的石油钻井决策树

DECISION TREE OF OIL DRILLING USING THE CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION

图片

CDF 和分形分析可用于决策树分支的 EMV 不确定的情况。然而,分析师的判断是最重要的。树只是 MBA 必须结合他或她的知识和直觉使用的工具。

CDF and fractile analysis can be used for situations where the EMV of a branch of a decision tree is uncertain. However, the judgment of the analyst is most important. The tree is simply a tool that the MBA must use in tandem with his or her knowledge and intuition.

 

 

回归分析与预测

REGRESSION ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING

线性回归模型用于各种业务情况,以确定分析师凭直觉认为相关的变量之间的关系。关系一旦建立,就可以用来预测未来。通常使用回归分析将销售额与价格、促销和市场因素联系起来;股票价格与收益和利率的比值;生产成本与产量的关系。但当然也可以用它来寻找诸如“温度对冰淇淋甜筒的销售有何影响?”等问题的答案。这种情况下的自变量(X) 是温度。它是被认为会导致其他事情发生的变量。因变量(Y) 是销售额。温度影响销售,反之则不然。

Linear regression models are used in a variety of business situations to determine relationships between variables that analysts believe intuitively to be related. Once a relationship is established, it can be used to forecast the future. Commonly regression analysis is used to relate sales to price, promotions, and market factors; stock prices to earnings and interest rates; and production costs to production volumes. But of course one can use it as well to find answers to questions such as “What is the effect of temperature on the sales of ice cream cones?” The independent variable (X) in this scenario is the temperature. It is the variable that is believed to cause other things to happen. The dependent variable (Y) is sales. Temperature affects sales, not vice versa.

回归分析涉及收集足够的数据以确定变量之间的关系。有了很多数据点,例如一年中有关温度和销售变化的信息,可以绘制一个图表,温度沿 X 轴,销售额沿 Y 轴。回归的目标是产生一个“最好”描述这种关系的直线方程。回归试图在绘制的数据点之间“拟合”一条线,以便“点和线之间的平方差最小”。最小二乘法需要大量的加法、减法和乘法。商业计算器或计算机电子表格程序将是必要的。

Regression analysis involves gathering sufficient data to determine the relationship between the variables. With many data points, such as year’s worth of information on temperature and sales changes, a graph can be drawn with temperature along the X axis and sales along the Y axis. The goal of regression is to produce an equation of a line that “best” depicts this relationship. Regression tries to “fit” a line between the plotted data points so that the “squared differences between the points and the line are least.” The least squares method requires a great deal of adding, subtracting, and multiplying. A business calculator or computer spreadsheet program will be necessary.

 

 

代数进修课程

AN ALGEBRA REFRESHER COURSE

为了为回归示例打下基础,让我们回顾一些基本的代数知识。你还记得一条线是由这个代数公式描述的:

To set the stage for a regression example, let’s review some basic algebra. You recall that a line is described by this algebraic formula:

 

 

Y = mX + b

Y = mX + b

Y =因变量(如销售额)

Y = dependent variable (such as sales)

m =直线的斜率(变量之间的关系)

m = the slope of the line (the relationship between variables)

X =自变量(如雨)

X = the independent variable (such as rain)

b = y 轴截距(直线穿过垂直轴的位置)

b = y axis intercept (where the line crosses the vertical axis)

 

 

计算机电子表格将计算定义自变量和因变量之间关系的线性方程 (Y = mX + b)。该程序将确定它计算为最佳“拟合”的线是否可以用作准确的预测工具。

The computer spreadsheet will calculate the linear equation (Y = mX + b) that defines the relationship between the independent and dependent variables. The program will determine whether the line that it has calculated as the best “fit” can be used as an accurate tool for forecasting.

 

 

冰淇淋回归示例

AN ICE CREAM REGRESSION EXAMPLE

拥有 20 家 Ben & Jerry's 冰淇淋连锁店的老板注意到,随着温度的升高和降低,他的销售额也会随之增加。为了确定销售额与季节温度之间的精确数学关系,他从国家气象局收集了过去五年的月度销售数据和相关月份的平均气温。他的数据如下所示:

The owner of a chain of twenty Ben & Jerry’s ice cream shops noticed that as the temperature rose and fell, so did his sales. In an attempt to determine the precise mathematical relationship between sales and seasonal temperatures, he gathered the monthly sales data for the previous five years and the average temperatures for the months in question from the National Weather Service. His data looked as follows:

 

 

图片

 

 

使用电子表格的“回归”功能,所有者生成了以下 Excel 输出:

Using the “Regression” function of the spreadsheet, the owner generated the following Excel output:

 

 

图片

 

 

图片

 

 

 

 

这是什么意思?

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

令人惊奇的是,该信息块包含描述 Ben & Jerry's 温度与销售额之间关系的直线方程。首先让我们解释输出中的数据以获得线方程。

Wondrously enough, that block of information contains the equation for the line that describes the relationship between temperature and sales at Ben & Jerry’s. First let’s interpret the data in the output to get the line equation.

 

 

“Y 截距系数” = b = 379,066

“Coefficient of the Y Intercept” = b = 379,066

“X 变量的系数” = m = 16,431

“Coefficient of the X Variable” = m = 16,431

将该信息放入代数复习中所述的标准线性方程中,Y = 16,431X 379,066,绘制数据点,并绘制方程描述的回归线,图形如下所示:

Placing that information into a standard linear equation as described in the algebra refresher, Y = 16,431X 379,066, plotting the data points, and drawing the regression line described by the equation, the graph looks like this:

BEN & JERRY's 冰淇淋销量回归示例

SALES OF BEN & JERRY’S ICE CREAM REGRESSION EXAMPLE

图片

如图所示,回归线穿过数据点的中间。通过将温度 X 代入方程式,可以计算出预测的冰淇淋销量。在 Ben & Jerry 的案例中,60 度的温度会导致预计每月销售额为 606,794 美元。

As shown by the graph, the regression line runs through the middle of the data points. By plugging temperature, X, into the equation, the predicted ice cream sales can be calculated. In Ben & Jerry’s case, a temperature of 60 degrees would result in predicted monthly sales of $606,794.

 

 

Y = (16,431 × 60 度) 379,066 = 606,794 美元

Y = (16,431 × 60 degrees) 379,066 = $606,794

但是这个方程式在预测冰淇淋销量方面到底有多准确呢?“回归输出”中的另一个数字给了我们这个问题的答案。

But just how accurate is this equation in predicting the sales of ice cream? The answer to this question is given to us by another number in the “Regression Output.”

 

 

R 方解释

R SQUARE EXPLAINED

R 平方值告诉我们“数据中有多少百分比的变化可以由给定的回归方程解释。” 在我们的案例中,70.4% 的销售额变化由回归方程解释。这被认为是非常高的。在更广泛的经济分析中,30% 的 R 方将被认为非常高,因为有成千上万的变量可能影响经济。在冰淇淋行业,可以想象,除了温度,商店广告、优惠券和营业时间也可以解释销售波动。

The R Square value tells us “what percent of the variation in the data is explained by the regression equation given.” In our case 70.4 percent of the variation of sales is explained by the regression equation. This is considered very high. In broader economic analyses, an R Square of 30 percent would be considered very high, since there are thousands of variables that could affect economies. In the ice cream business, one could imagine that in addition to temperature, store advertising, couponing, and store hours could also explain sales fluctuations.

不过要小心!不要过多解读回归数据结果!回归仅表示销售额的变化与温度的变化与描述的方式大致相同。它并没有说“温度实际上导致了销售量的增加”。但是,如果选定的自变量是合理的,并且可以很好地预测所研究的因变量,则使用它。

But be careful! Do not read too much into the regression data results! Regression only says that changes in sales occur with changes in temperature in much the same way as described. It does not say that “temperature actually caused sales to move.” But if a selected independent variable is reasonable and it is a good predictor of the desired dependent variable under study, use it.

回归分析不仅指向正相关,例如冰淇淋销售和温度,而且还指向负相关,例如利率和房屋销售。如果利率高,房屋销售量就会低。在这种情况下,X 系数是负数。这些负面关系与正面/正面关系一样是有用的预测指标。

Regression analysis points not only to positive correlations, such as ice cream sales and temperature, but also to negative correlations, such as interest rates and housing sales. If interest rates are high, housing sales are low. In this case the X coefficient is a negative number. These negative relationships are just as useful predictors as positive/positive relationships.

 

 

标准错误解释

STANDARD ERROR EXPLAINED

电子表格输出中显示的“Y 估计值和 X 系数的标准误差”是回归线的 Y 和 X 系数的标准偏差的同义词。在 Ben & Jerry's 的示例中,Y 估计值(销售额)的标准误差在 68% 的情况下为正负 243,334 美元。(它列在上面的 Excel 输出中。)同样,输出显示 X 系数(温度)的标准误差为 3,367。(它列在上面的 Excel 输出中。)可以使用标准差对可能数据值的范围进行各种分析,以显示这些数字的可变性和所得回归方程的可靠性。

The “Standard Error of the Y Estimate and the X Coefficient” shown in the spreadsheet output are synonyms for the standard deviations of the Y and X coefficients of the regression line. In the Ben & Jerry’s example, the standard error of the Y estimate (sales) is plus or minus $243,334 68 percent of the time. (It is listed in the Excel output found above.) In the same way the output shows that the standard error of the X coefficient (temperature) is 3,367. (It is listed in the Excel output found above.) A variety of analyses about the ranges of possible data values can be performed using standard deviations to show the variability of those numbers and the reliability of the resulting regression equation.

 

 

可靠性的 T 统计量度

THE T STATISTIC MEASURE OF RELIABILITY

T 统计有助于确定电子表格计算的回归方程是否适合用于预测。T 统计量揭示了 X 变量是否对 Y 具有统计上显着的影响,例如温度对销售的影响。您可以通过将 X 系数除以其“标准误差”来计算度量。经验法则表明,如果 T 统计量高于 2 或低于 2,则 X 变量对 Y 具有统计上的显着影响。在我们的案例中,16,431/3,367 = 4.88,这是一个非常高的 T 统计量。它也列在第 192 页顶部的 Excel 输出中。因此,分析师会得出结论,温度是销售的良好预测指标。

The T statistic can help determine if the regression equation calculated by the spreadsheet is a good one to use for forecasting. The T statistic reveals if an X variable has a statistically significant effect on Y, such as temperature’s effect on sales. You calculate the measure by dividing the X coefficient by its “Standard Error.” The rule of thumb says if a T statistic is above 2 or below 2, the X variable has a statistically significant effect on Y. In our case 16,431/3,367 = 4.88, a very high T-stat. It is also listed in the Excel output on the top of page 192. Therefore, an analyst would conclude that temperature is a good predictor of sales.

在考虑一个模型是否是一个好的预测器时,有必要同时具有高 R 方和高 T 统计量。可以创建具有多个 X 变量的模型。这称为多变量回归。随着变量数量的增加,R 方也随之增加。但是,添加更多具有低 T 统计量的 X 变量会创建不准确的模型。有必要使用模型,添加和删除自变量以实现高 R 平方高 T 统计。

When considering whether a model is a good forecaster, it is necessary to have both a high R Square and a high T statistic. It is possible to create a model with more than one X variable. This is called multivariable regression. As the number of variables increases, so does the R Square. However, adding more X variables with low T statistics creates an inaccurate model. It is necessary to play with the model, adding and dropping independent variables to achieve high R Squares and high T statistics.

 

 

虚拟变量回归分析

DUMMY VARIABLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS

回归分析中采用的一个技巧是使用虚拟变量来表示未在数字序列中测量的条件。1 和 0 用于表示这些条件。例如,在 Toys “R” Us,拥有当季“热门”玩具的库存,这是一种非数字条件,可以推动销售。可用虚拟变量在数据集中用 1 表示有货情况,用 0 表示缺货情况。

A trick employed in regression analysis is the use of dummy variables to represent conditions that are not measured in a numerical series. Ones and zeroes are used to represent these conditions. For example, at Toys “R” Us, having the “hot” toy of the season in stock, a nonnumerical condition, catapults sales. The in-stock condition could be indicated in a data set by a 1, and out-of-stock condition could be designated by a 0, using dummy variables.

给定玩具“反”斗城商店的一组假设数据,您可以了解它是如何工作的。

Given a hypothetical set of data at a Toys “R” Us store, you can see how it works.

“热门”玩具库存状况

“HOT” TOY STOCK STATUS

日期: 12/1/05

DATE: 12/1/05

(1 =进,0 =出): 0

(1 = in, 0 = out): 0

销售额: 100,000 美元

Sales: $100,000

 

 

日期: 12/2/05

DATE: 12/2/05

(1 =进,0 =出): 0

(1 = in, 0 = out): 0

销售额: 100,000 美元

Sales: $100,000

 

 

日期: 2005 年 12 月 3 日

DATE: 12/3/05

(1 =进,0 =出): 1

(1 = in, 0 = out): 1

销售额: 200,000 美元

Sales: $200,000

 

 

日期: 12/4/05

DATE: 12/4/05

(1 =进,0 =出): 1

(1 = in, 0 = out): 1

销售额: 200,000 美元

Sales: $200,000

 

 

日期: 12/5/05

DATE: 12/5/05

(1 =进,0 =出): 0

(1 = in, 0 = out): 0

销售额: 100,000 美元

Sales: $100,000

 

 

日期: 12/6/05

DATE: 12/6/05

(1 =进,0 =出): 1

(1 = in, 0 = out): 1

销售额: 200,000 美元

Sales: $200,000

 

 

日期: 2005 年 12 月 7 日

DATE: 12/7/05

(1 =进,0 =出): 0

(1 = in, 0 = out): 0

销售额: 100,000 美元

Sales: $100,000

 

 

以下“热门”玩具与销量之间关系的回归输出就是结果。

The following regression output of the relationship between “hot” toys and sales is the result.

 

 

图片

 

 

这是一个完美的模型,因为模型的 R 方解释的变异是 100%,并且 T 统计量非常好。T 统计量非常大。不含所需玩具的销售额为 100,000 美元,有货时销售额为 100,000 美元。使用电子表格输出的回归方程是

This is a perfect model because the variation explained by the model’s R Square is 100 percent and the T statistic is excellent. The T statistic is very large. The sales are $100,000 without the desired toys, and an extra $100,000 when they’re in stock. The regression equation, using the spreadsheet output, is

 

 

销售额= 100,000美元X + 100,000 美元

Sales = $100,000X + $100,000

如果梦寐以求的玩具有货,则 X = 1,销售额跃升至 200,000 美元。如果不是,则 X = 0,销售额总计 100,000 美元。虚拟变量很有用,可用于将非标度数据(如股票状态或假期)与其他常规标度数据(如温度、利率和产品缺陷)相匹配,以生成有用的回归模型。

If the coveted toys are in stock, X = 1 and sales jump to $200,000. If not, X = 0, and sales total $100,000. Dummy variables are useful and can be used to match nonscaled data, such as stock status or a holiday, with other regularly scaled data, such as temperature, interest rates, and product defects, to produce useful regression models.

 

 

其他预测技术

OTHER FORECASTING TECHNIQUES

时间序列技术根据关系随时间的变化预测结果。在我们的冰淇淋示例中,温度和销售额的数据点被绘制在图表上,而不考虑它们发生的时间。回归关系没有考虑时间。显然,季节会影响 Ben & Jerry 的销售。时间序列分析通过在数据发生时绘制数据来考虑时间。然后,该技术尝试将数据中的波动“分解”为三个部分:

Time series techniques forecast outcomes based on changes in a relationship over time. In our ice cream example, the data points of temperature and sales were charted on the graph without regard to when they occurred. The regression relationship did not consider time. Obviously seasons affect Ben & Jerry’s sales. Time series analysis considers time by plotting data as it occurs. The technique then attempts to “decompose” the fluctuations within the data into three parts:

 

 

  • 潜在趋势——上涨、下跌、持平(长期指标)
  • The Underlying Trend—Up, down, flat (a long-term measure)
  • 周期——每小时、每天、每周、每月(短期模式)
  • The Cycles—Hourly, daily, weekly, monthly (a short-term pattern)
  • 无法解释的运动——由独特的事件和自然的怪癖引起的不寻常或不规则的运动
  • Unexplained Movements—Unusual or irregular movements caused by unique events and quirks of nature

回归和移动平均线用于确定趋势和周期。可以想象,时间序列预测是乏味的,不适合用一个简短的例子来说明。但是,至少了解时间序列技术的存在是有帮助的。

Regression and moving averages are used to determine the trend and cycles. As you can imagine, time series forecasting is tedious and does not lend itself to a short and simple example. However, it is helpful at least to know that time series techniques exist.

 

 

概括

SUMMARY

本章描述了执行以下功能的定量工具:

This chapter has described the quantitative tools that perform the following functions:

 

 

用决策树解决复杂问题

Sort out complex problems with decision trees

确定未来收到现金的价值——现金流量分析和净现值分析

Determine the value of cash received in the future—cash flow analysis and net present value analysis

用概率论量化不确定性

Quantify uncertainty with probability theory

使用回归分析和其他预测技术确定关系并进行预测

Determine relationships and forecast with regression analysis and other forecasting techniques

 

 

这些是 MBA 用来应对商业挑战的实用工具。他们赋予 MBA 做出明智决定并在工作中脱颖而出的能力。

These are practical tools that MBAs use to meet business challenges. They give MBAs the power to make informed decisions and to distinguish themselves on the job.

 

 

关键质量检查要点

KEY QA TAKEAWAYS

决策树——一种以图形方式显示和量化业务决策的多个结果的方法

Decision Trees—A way to graphically show and quantify multiple outcomes of a business decision

沉没成本——过去所做的投资对未来的投资决策没有影响

Sunk Cost—Investments made in the past that have no bearing on future investment decisions

预期货币价值 (EMV) ——基于所有可能结果的概率和价值的决策的混合价值

Expected Monetary Value (EMV)—The blended value of a decision based on the probabilities and values of all possible outcomes

累计价值——所有收益再投资后现金流的总未来价值

Accumulated Value—The total future value of cash flows with all earnings reinvested

净现值 (NPV) — 所有现金流“贴现”到今天美元的总现值

Net Present Value (NPV)—The total present value of all cash flows “discounted” to today’s dollars

内部收益率 (IRR) — 使现金流的净现值以今天的美元计算为零的贴现率

Internal Rate of Return (IRR)—The discount rate that makes the net present value of the cash flows equal zero in today’s dollars

概率分布——所有可能结果及其各自发生概率的图表

Probability Distributions—The graph of all possible outcomes with their respective probabilities of occurring

二项式分布——只有两种可能结果的概率分布

Binomial Distributions—Probability distribution with only two possible outcomes

正态分布——所有可能结果的钟形概率分布

Normal Distributions—The bell-shaped probability distribution of all possible outcomes

标准偏差 (σ) — 正态分布的离差(宽度)的量度

Standard Deviation (σ)—The measure of the dispersion (width) of the normal distribution

平均值 (µ) — 所有结果的算术平均值

Mean (µ)—The arithmetic average of all outcomes

Z Value——衡量正态分布曲线上特定情况概率的工具

Z Value—A tool to measure probabilities of specific situations on the normal distribution curve

累积分布函数 (CDF) — 一种正态分布形式,显示小于或等于所有可能结果的概率

Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)—A form of the normal distribution that shows the probability of being less than or equal to all possible outcomes

回归——一种使用线性方程解释多个变量之间关系的预测数学方法

Regression—A mathematical method of forecasting using line equations to explain the relationships between multiple variables

第六天

Day 6

金融

FINANCE

财经专题

Finance Topics

业务结构

Business Structures

贝塔风险

Beta Risk

有效边界

The Efficient Frontier

资本资产定价模型

Capital Asset Pricing Model

有效市场假说

The Efficient Market Hypothesis

投资估值

Investment Valuations

贴现现金流

Discounted Cash Flows

股息增长模型

Dividend Growth Model

资本预算

Capital Budgeting

资本结构

Capital Structure

股息政策

Dividend Policy

并购

Mergers and Acquisitions

 

 

我想成为一名投资银行家。如果你有 10,000 股,我就卖给你。我赚了很多钱。我会非常非常喜欢我的工作。我会帮助别人。我会成为百万富翁。我会有一个大房子。这对我来说会很有趣。

I want to be an investment banker. If you had 10,000 shares I sell them for you. I make a lot of money. I will like my job very, very much. I will help people. I will be a millionaire. I will have a big house. It will be fun for me.

——7 岁的小学生,“我长大后想成为什么样的人”

      (来自迈克尔·刘易斯的《说谎者的扑克》, 1989 年)

—Seven-year-old schoolboy, “What I Want to Be When I Grow Up,”

      (from Michael Lewis’s Liar’s Poker, 1989)

在 20 世纪 80 年代,金融是该去的地方。即使是孩子们也梦想着在华尔街生活。当华尔街成群结队地雇用他们时,权谋主义的年轻 MBA 们欣喜若狂,为他们提供了作为投资银行家从事大笔交易和交易的机会。不幸的是,泡沫在 1987 年随着股市崩盘破灭,MBA 们被迫加入银行、公司和共同基金的财务人员行列,寻找不那么光鲜亮丽的工作。

In the 1980s, finance was the place to be. Even kids dreamed of a life on Wall Street. Machiavellian young MBAs were beside themselves with glee as a Wall Street hired them by the droves, offering them a shot at big bucks trading and deal-making as investment bankers. Unfortunately, the bubble burst in 1987 with the stock market crash, and MBAs were forced to seek less glamorous jobs by joining the financial staffs at banks, corporations, and mutual funds.

但就像季节一样,华尔街在 1990 年代卷土重来,在 2000 年互联网崩溃之后,在 2008 年金融危机之后再次卷土重来。顶尖学校的 MBA 进入了快车道,薪水远高于非-MBA同行。在华尔街,从事相同工作的 MBA 每年比非 MBA 多赚数千美元。此外,工作晋升通常仅限于 MBA 精英。

But like the seasons, Wall Street made a comeback in the 1990s, and after the Internet meltdown in 2000, and again after the financial meltdown in 2008. MBAs from the top schools are put on the fast track and are paid significantly more than their non-MBA peers. On Wall Street, MBAs make thousands more per year than non-MBAs in the same job. Moreover, job advancement is often limited to the MBA elite.

不要孤立地阅读本章。如果金融让你兴奋,那么一心一意地专注于这门学科可能会对你的业务健康造成危害。财务是非常定量的,使用会计和质量保证章节中的数字。金融在营销中的作用与营销在金融中的作用一样大。营销人员对其财务结果负责。金融家努力向新客户推销自己,并向老客户推销新股。

Do not read this chapter in isolation. If finance turns you on, a single-minded focus on this discipline could be hazardous to your business health. Finance is very quantitative, using numbers from the accounting and QA chapters. Finance also plays as much of a role in marketing as marketing does in finance. Marketers are responsible for their financial results. Financiers work hard to market themselves to new clients and to sell new stocks to old ones.

 

 

公司的性质

THE NATURE OF THE FIRM

企业为什么存在?在金融家眼中,公司的唯一目的是最大化其所有者的财富。在追求财富的过程中,人们可以通过多种方式组织他们的业务。实体在美国采用三种基本的合法业务结构。每个选择取决于业务的复杂性、责任偏好和所有者的税收考虑。

Why do businesses exist? In a financier’s eyes, the sole purpose of a firm is to maximize the wealth of its owners. In their pursuit of riches, people can organize their businesses in several ways. There are three basic legal business structures that entities take on in the United States. Each is chosen depending on the complexity of the business, liability preference, and tax considerations of the owners.

 

 

独资企业

PROPRIETORSHIPS

独资企业,通常称为独资企业,是由个人或夫妻拥有的企业。所有者获得所有利润并对所有损失承担无限责任。如果事情不顺利,所有者的个人资产可以被没收。这是一个简单的结构。与儿童柠檬水摊一样,不需要特别的政府注册。收入被添加到个人的其他收入中,并按总收入纳税。因为它不是一个独立的法人实体,可以分割和出售,所以独资企业在金融市场上筹集资金更加困难。

A proprietorship, commonly called a sole proprietorship, is a business owned by an individual or husband and wife. The owner reaps all the profits and has unlimited liability for all losses. If things go poorly, the owner’s personal assets can be seized. It’s a simple structure. As with a child’s lemonade stand, no special government registration is required. Earnings are added to the individual’s other income, and taxes are paid on the total income. Because it is not a separate legal entity that can be divided and sold in pieces, it is more difficult for a proprietorship to raise money in the financial markets.

 

 

伙伴关系

PARTNERSHIPS

当几个人组建企业时,他们通常会建立合伙关系。与独资企业一样,每个所有者的收入份额都包含在他或她的个人纳税申报表中。根据业务性质,有两种类型的合伙企业。在普通合伙企业中,主动所有者(称为普通合伙人)对所有企业债务承担无限责任。1990 年,当 Laventhol & Horwath 会计师事务所因审计失当而破产时,债权人追讨合伙人的个人资产以偿还合伙企业的债务。

When several individuals form a business, they often enter into a partnership. As in a proprietorship, each owner’s share of the earnings is included on his or her personal tax returns. Depending on the nature of the business, there are two types of partnerships. In a general partnership, active owners, called general partners, have unlimited liability for all business debts. When the accounting firm of Laventhol & Horwath went into bankruptcy in 1990 because of auditing malpractices, creditors went after the personal assets of the partners to pay off the partnership’s debts.

有限合伙结构中,有限合伙人在其投资范围内受到保护。“有限”形式通常用于房地产和石油勘探企业,以保护不参与管理的投资伙伴。在 20 世纪 80 年代末、90 年代初和 2008 年的房地产萧条中,空置建筑项目的有限合伙人能够在不承担进一步责任的情况下放弃他们​​的投资。另一方面,同一项目的普通合伙人亲自上钩。与独资企业一样,筹集资金或出售合伙结构中的部分权益的能力相当困难。

In a limited partnership structure, limited partners are shielded to the extent of their investment. The “limited” form is often used in real estate and oil exploration ventures to protect the investing partners that do not participate in management. In the real estate busts of the late 1980s, the early 1990s, and 2008, the limited partners in vacant building projects were able to walk away from their investments with no further liability. On the other hand, the general partners of the same projects were personally on the hook. As in the proprietorship instance, the ability to raise money or to sell partial interests in partnership structures is rather difficult.

图片

 

 

企业

CORPORATIONS

在国家注册的公司是独立于拥有它们的个人的法人实体。在法律看来,公司被视为独立开展业务的个人。实体的资产和负债归公司所有,而不是公司的所有者。与有限合伙企业一样,公司所有者对企业的义务承担有限责任。在破产的情况下,所有者的个人资产免受债权人的侵害。

Corporations, registered with a state, are legal entities that are separate from the individuals who own them. In the eyes of the law, a corporation is treated as an individual who conducts his or her own business independently. The assets and liabilities of the entity are owned by the corporation, not by the owners of the corporation. As with limited partnerships, owners of corporations have limited liability for the obligations of the business. In the case of a bankruptcy, the owners’ personal assets are shielded from creditors.

公司的所有权分为投资者可以在纽约证券交易所 (NYSE) 等金融市场购买和交易的股票股票可以在投资者之间交易,而不会中断业务。当代表所有者的管理层和董事会决定需要更多资金时,可以发行额外的股份。投资者,无论他是扮演积极角色还是选择保持被动,个人都可以免受公司的责任。

A corporation’s ownership is split into shares of stock that investors can purchase and trade in the financial markets such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Shares can be traded among investors without disrupting the business. When management and the board of directors who represent the owners decide that more money is needed, additional shares can be issued. An investor, whether he takes an active role or chooses to remain passive, is personally shielded from the liabilities of the company.

公司所有权的一个主要缺点是双重征税。公司和个人一样,必须纳税。当公司向其所有者支付股息时,该股息作为个人收入再次征税。

A major drawback of ownership in a corporation is double taxation. The corporation, like an individual, must pay taxes. When the corporation pays its owners a dividend, that dividend is taxable again as income to the individual.

公司形式有多种变化。会计师和律师所称的C Corp.的运作方式如上所述,但还有一个Subchapter S Corp。这些公司的所有者不超过 35 人。他们同意将公司的收入包括在他们的个人纳税申报表中,就像合伙企业一样。这样一来,双重征税的锤子就不会落在所有者身上,同时公司的有限责任优势得以保持。

There are variations to the corporate form. The C Corp., as it is called by accountants and lawyers, works as described above, but there is also a Subchapter S Corp. These corporations have thirty-five or fewer owners. They agree to include the corporation’s earnings in their personal tax returns as in the case of a partnership. In that way, the double-taxation hammer does not fall on the owners, while at the same time the corporation’s limited liability advantage is maintained.

如果你对金融感兴趣,你可以走两条不同但又相互关联的路线。有投资领域,它更迷人,财富、头条新闻和股票报价都是由它组成的;还有财务管理,这是帮助公司为增长融资、支付账单和进行收购的“基层”工作。这两个领域是相互关联的,因为财务部门在很大程度上负责的业务绩效会影响其投资者在公司利润中的份额。让我们从魅力开始吧。

If you are interested in finance, you can take two different yet interconnected routes. There is the investments area, which is more glamorous, the thing that fortunes, headlines, and stock quotes are made of; and there is financial management, which is the “in the trenches” work that helps companies finance their growth, pay the bills, and make acquisitions. The two areas are interconnected because the performance of a business, for which the finance department is to a large extent responsible, affects its investors’ share of the firm’s profits. Let’s start with the glamour.

 

 

投资

INVESTMENTS

风险与回报

RISK AND RETURN

我如何通过拥有一家公司或其他企业的大部分或少量股份来获利?这个投资决定实际上是一个双管齐下的问题:潜在收入是多少,风险有多大?QA 章节前面解释的贴现现金流和概率的基本概念可以用来回答这些估值问题。像查找旧课堂笔记一样参考它们。

How can I profit by owning a large or small share of a corporation or other business? This investment decision is really a two-pronged question: What is the potential income, and how risky is the venture? The basic concepts of discounted cash flows and probability explained earlier in the QA chapter can be used to answer these valuation questions. Refer to them as you would look up old class notes.

金融的基本原则规定回报应与风险相称。如果您知道一项投资是确定的,那么您应该期望较低的回报率来补偿较低的风险。因此,由联邦存款保险公司 (FDIC) 承保的存款证支付的回报率很低。野采石油涉及很大的风险,但如果一口井被证明是喷油井,它也有望获得巨大的奖金。

A basic tenet of finance dictates that the return should be commensurate with the risk. If you know that an investment is a sure thing, then you should expect a lower rate of return in compensation for the lower risk. Accordingly, certificates of deposit insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) pay low rates of return. Wildcatting for oil involves a great deal of risk, but it also promises a huge jackpot if a well turns out to be a gusher.

 

 

风险类型。如果风险适用于整个资产类别,例如股票、债券和房地产市场,则称为系统风险。例如,当公众认为股市是一个很好的赌注(所谓的牛市)时,整个市场就会上涨。当公众离开时,正如 1929 年、1987 年、2000 年和 2008 年崩盘时的头条新闻所读,市场“下蛋”或“崩溃”。经济、利率和通货膨胀的变动是影响市场的系统性因素整个市场。在进行任何投资时,您都会面临市场的系统性风险。

Types of Risk. If risk applies to a whole class of assets, such as the markets for stocks, bonds, and real estate, it is called systematic risk. For instance, when the public believes that the stock market is a good bet (a so-called bull market), the market as a whole will climb. When the public leaves, the market “lays an egg” or “melts down,” as the headlines read in the crashes of 1929, 1987, 2000, and 2008. Movements in the economy, interest rates, and inflation are systematic factors that affect the entire market. In making any investment, you are exposed to the systematic risk of the market.

如果风险适用于特定资产或一小部分资产,则它被称为独特的或非系统的。由于投资固有的特定风险,个别投资业绩可能会波动。例如,如果您持有迪士尼股票,而米奇感冒了,该股票可能会暴跌。这种类型的风险在很大程度上可以通过拥有一些投资来弥补。这称为多元化。通过持有广泛的投资组合,投资者可以用其他投资的收益来抵消某些投资的损失。多元化缓和了投资组合的整体波动。

If the risk applies to a particular asset or to a small group of assets, it is called unique or unsystematic. An individual investment performance may be volatile because of specific risks inherent to the investment. If you own shares in Disney, for instance, and Mickey catches a cold, the stock could tumble. That type of risk can largely be compensated for by owning a number of investments. This is called diversification. By holding a broad portfolio of investments, investors can offset losses on some investments with gains on others. Diversification moderates the overall fluctuations of a portfolio.

 

 

BETA:投资组合中的风险

BETA: RISK WITHIN A PORTFOLIO OF INVESTMENTS

股票的市场价格,例如 IBM,在世界证券交易所每天都在波动。这种波动等同于风险。历史结果的分布将以图形方式显示风险,如 QA 章节中西雅图的降雨量和鞋码所示。复习一下概率分布,普通股的平均长期历史回报率为 12.1%,标准差为 21.2%。在一个标准偏差内,68% 的时间股市每年的回报率在+ 33.3% 和- 9.1% 之间。

The market prices of stocks, IBM for example, fluctuate daily on the stock exchanges of the world. That volatility is equated with risk. A distribution of historical outcomes would show the risk graphically, as was shown for Seattle’s rainfall and for shoe sizes in the QA chapter. To refresh your memory of probability distributions, the mean long-term historical return on common stocks was 12.1 percent with a standard deviation of 21.2 percent. Within one standard deviation, 68 percent of the time the stock market will return between +33.3 percent and 9.1 percent per year.

除了在图表上显示单个投资的绝对波动率外,金融分析师还通过将价格变动与整个市场变动进行比较来衡量单个股票或小组股票的风险。这种衡量标准,贝塔,量化了持有特定投资与拥有代表“市场”的非常大的投资组合的风险。这种“市场”投资组合的一个例子是 500 只股票的集合,称为标准普尔 500 指数(标准普尔 500 指数)或威尔希尔 5000指数中的5,000 只股票。日经指数的 225 只股票代表日本市场。DAX 代表德国市场,FTSE 代表英国市场。

In addition to showing on a graph an individual investment’s absolute volatility, financial analysts measure the risk of individual stocks or small groups of stocks by comparing their price movements with the entire market’s movement. That measurement, beta, quantifies the risk of holding that particular investment versus owning a very large portfolio that represents “the market.” An example of such “market” portfolios are the collection of 500 stocks called the Standard & Poor’s 500 (S & P 500) or the 5,000 stocks that are included in the Wilshire 5000. The Nikkei index of 225 stocks represents the Japanese market. The DAX represents the German market and the FTSE reflects the British market.

历史股票收益的概率分布

A PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF HISTORICAL STOCK RETURNS

图片

著名的道琼斯工业平均指数汇集了美国 30 家最稳定的工业公司(例如 IBM、3M、宝洁、可口可乐、波音和埃克森美孚)。道琼斯指数的 30 只“蓝筹”股票在纽约证券交易所交易,并不代表更广泛的市场,尽管媒体可能让您相信它们是。

The famous Dow Jones Industrial Average is a diverse collection of thirty of the most stable industrial companies in America (e.g., IBM, 3M, P&G, Coca-Cola, Boeing, and ExxonMobil). The Dow’s thirty “blue-chip” stocks are traded on the NYSE and are not representative of the broader market, even though the press might have you believe that they are.

如果股票或投资组合与市场同步变动,则称其与 1 的 beta 完全相关。可口可乐是一家非常稳定的公司,它以 1 的 beta 随市场变动。如果股票变动与市场完全相反,它被认为是负相关的,或者有 1 的 beta。

If a stock or portfolio moves in tandem with the market, it is said to be perfectly correlated with a beta of 1. Coca-Cola is such a stable company that it moves with the market with a beta of 1. If a stock moves in perfect opposition to the market, it is said to be negatively correlated, or to have a beta of 1.

没有这种完全负相关的股票,但有一些股票的贝塔值很低。Luby's Cafeterias 有一个 .45 beta。大盘狂跌的时候,老人家还是去食堂。然而,在大市场反弹中,Luby's 大幅上涨的可能性较小。电力公司的贝塔值也很低。从理论上讲,贝塔系数为 0 意味着没有风险。在那种情况下,投资的贝塔值将完全相互抵消,因此无论市场如何变动,都不会有风险。

There are no such perfectly negatively correlated stocks, but there are some stocks with low betas. Luby’s Cafeterias has a .45 beta. When the market fluctuates down wildly, older people still go to the cafeteria. However, in a big market rally Luby’s is less likely to rise dramatically. Electric utilities also have low betas. Theoretically, a beta of 0 would mean an absence of risk. In that case the investments’ betas would perfectly cancel each other so that there would be no risk regardless of the movement of the market.

不同贝塔的投资如何运作

HOW INVESTMENTS WITH DIFFERENT BETAS ACT

图片

高风险股票,例如铝业公司 Alcoa,其贝塔系数为 1.84。市场 1% 的波动会放大为美铝 1.84% 的价格波动。波音和迪士尼等中等风险股票的贝塔系数为 1.2。

A risky stock, like Alcoa, an aluminum company, has a beta of 1.84. A 1 percent fluctuation in the market would be magnified in a 1.84 percent movement in Alcoa’s price. Moderately risky stocks such as Boeing and Disney have 1.2 betas.

市场行为非常重要,因为大多数大型投资决策都是在大型投资组合或投资集合的背景下做出的。虽然个别投资的风险可能很高,但通过投资于正确的投资组合以降低投资组合的贝塔值,整体风险将降低。拥有数百项投资的大型共同基金,例如 Fidelity 的 Magellan Fund 的 190 亿美元投资组合,提供了这种多元化。对冲基金,另一方面,是针对机构和富人的私募股权 (PE) 池,它们能够通过在有针对性的投资上下大赌注来承担更多风险。当对利率方向的数十亿美元的猜测失败时,损失了 40 亿美元,具有讽刺意味的是,名为 Long-Term Capital Management 的对冲基金于 1998 年破产。

The behavior of the market is so important because most large investment decisions are made in the context of a large portfolio, or collection of investments. Although the risks of individual investments may be high, the overall risk will be lowered by investing in the right mix of investments to lower the portfolio’s beta. Large mutual funds that own hundreds of investments, such as Fidelity’s Magellan Fund’s $19 billion portfolio, provide this kind of diversification. Hedge funds, on the other hand, are private equity (PE) pools for institutions and wealthy individuals that are able to take on more risk by making big bets on targeted investments. When a multibillion-dollar speculation on the direction of interest rates went bad, costing $4 billion, an ironically named hedge fund, Long-Term Capital Management, went bankrupt in 1998.

当然,Beta 编号不会凭空出现。Beta 是相关系数的统计计算,即股票与市场的协方差除以市场的方差。可以计算贝塔系数,但金融分析师会承认投资信息服务,如价值线调查或路透社,提供贝塔系数。计算 beta 是乏味的,按照真正的 MBA 风格,本书将跳过它。

Of course the beta number does not appear from nowhere. Beta is a statistical calculation of a correlation coefficient, the covariance of a stock with the market divided by the variance of the market. Betas can be calculated, but financial analysts will admit that investment information services, such as the Value Line Survey or Reuters, provide the beta coefficients. Calculating beta is tedious, and in true MBA fashion, this book will skip it.

 

 

有效边界

THE EFFICIENT FRONTIER

给定所有可能的资产组合,理论上每个风险级别都有完美的投资组合。这些理论上“最佳”投资组合的图形表示位于一条称为有效边界的线上。有效边界线以下的区域包含可实现或可行的投资组合组合。理论上,边界以上是无法实现的回报。

Given all the possible portfolios of assets, theoretically there is a perfect mix of investments at each level of risk. The graphical representation of these theoretical “best” portfolios lies on a line called the efficient frontier. The area below the efficient frontier line encompasses the attainable or feasible portfolio combinations. Theoretically above the frontier are the unattainable returns.

有效边界

THE EFFICIENT FRONTIER

图片

股票的资本资产定价模型

THE CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL FOR STOCKS

资本资产定价模型(CAPM) 通过添加非系统风险和拥有该资产的系统风险来确定投资所需的回报率。一个简单的公式,CAPM 表示要求的回报率是无风险利率加上非系统性风险的溢价。该风险是您已经熟悉的贝塔。

The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) determines the required rate of return of an investment by adding the unsystematic risk and the systematic risk of owning this asset. A simple formula, the CAPM says that the required rate of return is the risk-free rate plus a premium for unsystematic risk. That risk is the beta that you are already familiar with.

 

 

Ke = Rf + (Km Rf) 贝塔

Ke = Rf + (Km Rf) Beta

 

 

股票投资的必要回报=无风险利率+ (平均市场回报率-无风险利率) × Beta

Required Return on an Equity Investment = Risk-Free Rate + (Avg. Market Return Rate Risk-Free Rate) × Beta

假设您想知道在 1992 年 IBM 应该返回什么才能成为一项有价值的投资。价值线调查告诉您,IBM 的保守贝塔值为 1.2。《华尔街日报》告诉你,长期无风险的美国国债回报率为 8%。这比 2011 年处于四十年来最低点的 4% 的利率要高得多。最终的 CAPM 输入需要更多的功课。自 1926 年以来进行的一项研究表明,标准普尔 500 指数的平均回报率已超过投资无风险美国国债的无风险利率 7.4%。这称为市场风险溢价(物料需求计划)。有些人目前使用 5% 到 6% 的利率来反映异常低的当前利率和市场回报率。有了这三个 CAPM 输入,对 IBM 的投资平均回报率为 16.8%。

Suppose you wanted to know in 1992 what IBM should return to be a worthwhile investment. The Value Line Survey told you that IBM had a conservative beta of 1.2. The Wall Street Journal told you that the long-term risk-free U.S. Treasury bond pays a return of 8 percent. This is a far more historical rate than the 4 percent rate prevailing in 2011 that was at forty-year lows. The final CAPM input requires some more homework. A study conducted since 1926 shows that the average return on the Standard & Poor 500 has exceeded the risk-free rate of investing in risk-free U.S. Treasury bonds by 7.4 percent. This is called the market risk premium (MRP). Some currently use a rate of 5 to 6 percent to reflect abnormally lower current interest rates and market returns. With those three CAPM inputs, an investment in IBM should return on average 16.8 percent.

 

 

8% + (7.4%) 1.2 = 16.8%

8% + (7.4%) 1.2 = 16.8%

将很多很多 beta 代入 CAPM 的线性代数方程,您可以生成一个图表。该线称为证券市场线(SML)。在 IBM 示例中,假设 IBM 的实际回报率为 12%。这低于 CAPM 确定的所需回报率。该理论表明,理性投资者会出售 IBM。如果回报率超过 CAPM 确定的要求利率,则市场提供便宜货,投资者应该购买股票。听起来不错,但 CAPM 告诉您所需的回报率,而不是投资的实际回报率。为此,您需要茶叶和水晶球。

Plugging many, many betas into the linear algebraic equation of the CAPM, you can generate a graph. That line is called the security market line (SML). In the IBM example, suppose that the return on IBM is actually 12 percent. That is less than the required rate of return determined by the CAPM. The theory suggests that a rational investor would sell IBM. If the return rate exceeded the required rate as determined by the CAPM, then the market is offering a bargain, and investors should buy the stock. It sounds great, but the CAPM tells the required rate of return, not what an investment will actually return. For that you need tea leaves and a crystal ball.

证券市场线

THE SECURITY MARKET LINE

图片

此外,整个 CAPM 在理论上都受到了攻击。在 1992 年 3 月福布斯的一篇题为“Bye-Bye Beta”的文章中,著名投资顾问大卫·德雷曼 (David Dreman) 报道了令人吃惊的新研究,并宣布 CAPM 和 Beta 已死。芝加哥大学教授 Fama 和 French 的一项研究发现,CAPM 定义的风险与长期绩效之间没有联系。由于贝塔值基于历史波动率,因此贝塔值可能与未来预测无关。Beta 可能已经声名狼藉,但由于没有更好的方法,商学院仍然教授这一理论。

Moreover, the whole CAPM is theoretically under attack. In an article entitled “Bye-Bye Beta” in Forbes, March 1992, David Dreman, a noted investment adviser, reported on new and startling research and pronounced CAPM and beta dead. A study by University of Chicago professors Fama and French saw no link between risk, as defined by the CAPM, and long-term performance. Because betas are based on historical volatility, betas may have no relevance for future predictions. Betas may have fallen into disrepute, but since there is nothing better, business schools still teach this theory.

 

 

有效市场假说

THE EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS

SML 图表明市场上有便宜货。但这引出了一个问题:“如果市场是有效的,那么怎么会有便宜货呢?” 有效市场假说(EMH) 声称市场在不同程度上反映了所有当前信息。因此,没有人可以利用市场的异常来“击败市场”。争夺利润的投资者数量如此之多,以至于报价是价值的准确指标。

The SML graph suggests that there are bargains in the market. But that begs the question “If the market is efficient, then how can there be bargains?” The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) alleges that to varying degrees the market reflects all current information. Therefore, no one can take advantage of market aberrations to “beat the market.” Investors competing for profits are so numerous that quoted stock prices are exact indicators of value.

对市场效率的信念分为三种程度:弱、半强强。

There are three degrees of belief in the efficiency of the market: weak, semistrong, and strong.

 

 

效率的弱形式。导致过去价格变动的所有信息都反映在当前市场价格中。相信弱形式意味着使用技术分析作为未来预测指标绘制股票价格走势图不会获得任何好处。然而,通过对公司的运营和盈利能力进行深入的基本面分析,分析师可以获得提供巨额利润机会的洞察力。

Weak Form of Efficiency. All information that caused past price movements is reflected in the current market price. Believing in the weak form means that no benefit is gained by charting stock price movements using technical analysis as a predictor of the future. However, by doing in-depth fundamental analysis about companies’ operations and profitability, analysts can gain insights that will provide opportunities for big profits.

 

 

半强效率形式。该阵营认为,市场价格反映了所有公开的信息。因此,在没有内幕消息的情况下,翻阅财务报表无法获得“异常”收益。美国证券交易委员会(SEC) 扮演警察的角色,试图确保投资者不会根据内幕信息进行交易。相信效率的半强形式意味着通过阅读财务报表和所有公开信息进行的基本面分析不会带来大的收益。

Semistrong Form of Efficiency. This camp believes that market prices reflect all publicly known information. Therefore, without insider information, no “abnormal” returns can be gained by poring over financial statements. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) acts as a policeman to try to ensure that investors do not trade based on insider information. Believing in the semistrong form of efficiency means that fundamental analysis, conducted by reading financial statements and all public information, will not result in big gains.

 

 

强大的效率形式。市场效率的真正信徒相信股票价格反映了所有公共和私人信息。在许多情况下,这种强烈的信念已被证明是没有根据的。Ivan Boesky、Michael Milken 和 Martha Stewart 的刑事审判是广为人知的案件,在这些案件中,内幕信息被用来赚取公众无法获得的利润。

Strong Form of Efficiency. The true believers in market efficiency have faith that stock prices reflect all public and private information. That intense faith has been proven unfounded in many instances. The criminal trials of Ivan Boesky, Michael Milken, and Martha Stewart were well-publicized cases in which insider information was used to make profits that the public had no chance of making.

研究表明,市场效率的弱形式随着时间的推移一直成立。天真地相信完全有效是没有根据的。股票的估值通常是合理的,但有些人甚至否认有效市场假说的弱形式。如前所述,图表师技术分析师绘制价格走势图,寻找能够指示未来价格走势的模式。

Research indicates that the weak form of market efficiency has held true over time. Naive beliefs in complete efficiency are not warranted. Stocks are generally fairly valued, yet some people deny even the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis. As mentioned, chartists or technical analysts graph price movements seeking patterns that will indicate price movement in the future.

推测不可预见的、巨大的负面市场事件将会发生的投资者被称为黑天鹅投资者。当市场恐慌时,他们就会繁荣。

Investors that speculate that unforseen, hugely negative market events will happen are called Black Swan investors. When the market panics, they prosper.

 

 

投资类型及估值方法

INVESTMENT TYPES AND VALUATION METHODS

在 QA 章节中,详细介绍了贴现现金流和净现值的概念。今天持有的一美元比将来收到的一美元更有价值。这个简单的概念适用于投资所产生的现金,在大多数情况下是用于对投资进行估值的方法。

In the QA chapter the concepts of discounted cash flows and net present value were covered in detail. A dollar held today is worth more than a dollar received in the future. That simple concept, applied to the cash thrown off by an investment, is in most cases the method used to value investments.

 

 

债券市场

THE BOND MARKET

债券的价值来自其未来现金流量的现值。债券由公司或政府机构发行,以固定利率筹集资金。大多数支付利息,息票,每半年一次本金,称为面值票面价值。在规定的到期日,本金被偿还。

A bond’s value comes from the present value of its future cash flows. Bonds are issued by companies or governmental agencies to raise money at fixed rates of interest. Most pay interest, a coupon, semiannually on the principal amount, called the face or par value. At the stated maturity date, the principal is repaid.

在大多数情况下,期限越长,公司必须支付给投资者的利率就越高。较高的利率补偿投资者长期占用资金。如果市场利率走高,投资者可能会错失更高的回报;因此,他们必须就这种风险得到补偿。更高的利率伴随着更长的期限这一基本概念在投资界称为收益率曲线的图形中得到了描绘。1992 年,它向上倾斜,短期和长期利率之间相差 5%。1999 年 1 月,曲线平坦,利率差异仅为 1% 的 3⁄4。2005 年,收益率曲线再次向上倾斜,相差 2.5%,但利率水平要低得多。2011 年出现了 4% 的差异,因为美联储人为地将短期利率保持在接近零的水平。

In most cases the longer the maturity, the higher the interest rate that a company has to pay investors. Higher rates compensate investors for tying up their money for lengthy periods. Investors could miss out on higher returns if the market rates go higher; therefore, they must be compensated for that risk. The basic concept that higher rates accompany longer maturities is graphically depicted in what the investment world calls the yield curve. In 1992, it was upward sloping with a 5 percent difference between short- and long-term interest rates. In January 1999, the curve was flat with only 3⁄4 of 1 percent difference in rates. In 2005 the yield curve was once again sloping upward with a 2.5 percent difference, but at a much lower level of interest rates. And in 2011 there was a 4 percent difference because the Federal Reserve artificially held short-term rates near zero.

美国国债的收益率曲线

THE YIELD CURVE FOR U.S. TREASURY SECURITIES

图片

债券估值示例。1976 年,重型建筑设备制造商 Caterpillar Inc. 发行了价值 2 亿美元的 8% 息票债券,将于 2001 年到期。1992 年 6 月,当发行仍未完成时,华尔街日报引用了该债券的价格每 100 美元面值 100 美元。价值不仅取决于支付的利率,还取决于其他三个因素:

A Bond Valuation Example. In 1976, Caterpillar Inc., the maker of heavy construction equipment, issued $200 million worth of 8 percent coupon bonds maturing in 2001. In June 1992, while the issue was still outstanding, the price for the bond was quoted in the Wall Street Journal as $100 for every $100 of face value. The value was determined not only by the rate of interest paid, but by three other factors:

 

 

规定利率(票面利率)

The Stated Interest Rate (the coupon rate)

到期前的时间长度

The Length of Time Until Maturity

发行人违约风险(投研发布评级)

The Risk of Default of the Issuer (investment researchers publish ratings)

 

 

事实上,市场报价是 100 美元。这表明市场对 2001 年应支付的 100 美元的估值为 100 美元,从一家稳定的公司支付 8% 的半年息票。穆迪债券评级服务确认其 A 评级为低违约风险评估。使用净现值概念,以 1992 年 8% 的市场贴现率贴现,债券损失的现金等于债券的市场价值。由于市场利率等于票面利率,投资者既不支付卡特彼勒债券面值的溢价,也不支付折扣。这些债券的到期收益率(YTM) 为 100 美元,债券的市场价值为8% 。

The fact is that the market quote was $100. That indicated that the market valued the $100 payable in 2001, paying an 8 percent semiannual coupon, from a stable company at $100. The Moody’s bond rating service confirmed a low default risk assessment by their A rating. Using the net present value concept, the cash thrown off by the bond, discounted at an 8 percent market discount rate in 1992, equaled the bond’s market value. Because the market rate equaled the coupon rate, investors paid neither a premium nor a discount on the face value of the Caterpillar bonds. The bonds had an 8 percent yield to maturity (YTM) on the $100 market value of the bonds.

贴现现金流的卡特彼勒债券估值

CATERPILLAR BOND VALUATION OF DISCOUNTED CASH FLOWS

图片

以上是详细的计算;但是,通常情况下,您应该使用计算器来计算。以这种形式看到它可以帮助您形象化金钱的时间价值。如果市场认为卡特彼勒濒临破产,或者如果所有投资的市场利率在高通胀时期飙升,那么投资者可能会要求 20% 的资金回报率。如果是这样的话,100 美元的债券将只值 49.69 美元。现金流的风险增加会降低债券的价值。相反,5% 的贴现率会产生 123.16 美元的市场价格。在这种情况下,8% 的息票率将高于市场利率,投资者将为更高的现金流支付溢价。

Above is the calculation in detail; normally, however, you should use a calculator to do the math. Seeing it in this form helps you visualize the time value of money. If the market thought Caterpillar was on the verge of bankruptcy, or if the market interest rates on all investments skyrocketed in a period of high inflation, then investors might have required a 20 percent rate of return on their money. If that were the case, the $100 bond would have been worth only $49.69. The increased riskiness of the cash flows would reduce the bond’s value. Conversely, a discount rate of 5 percent would have yielded a market price of $123.16. In that case an 8 percent coupon would be higher than the market rate and investors would pay a premium for the higher cash flows.

时间和贴现率对现值的影响

TIME AND DISCOUNT RATE EFFECTS ON PRESENT VALUE

图片

从图形上看,以较高利率贴现的现金价值较低。收到的现金越多,对今天的投资者来说价值就越低。

Graphically, cash discounted at higher rates is worth less. The further out the cash is received, the less it is worth to an investor today.

 

 

期间。另一种评估债券的方法是计算债券的“平均加权期限”,称为久期。久期是债券将其市场价格的一半返还给投资者所需的时间。它还衡量债券对市场利率变化的敏感性。未来债券支付的时间越长,其价值的波动性就越大。如果债券在一年内到期,则视为短期债券;所有收益将很快支付,债券的波动性将很低。长期债券提供多年的固定利息支付。如果市场利率攀升,投资者将长期锁定较低的利率。因此,债券将大幅贬值。

Duration. Another way of evaluating a bond is by calculating a bond’s “average weighted maturity,” called its duration. Duration is the time a bond takes to return half of its market price to the investor. It also measures the sensitivity of a bond to changes in market interest rates. The further in the future a bond is paid out, the more volatile its value. If a bond matures in one year, it would be considered a short-term bond; all the proceeds would be paid quickly and the bond’s volatility would be low. Long-term bonds offer a fixed interest payout over many years. If market rates climb, an investor is locked into lower rates for a long time. As a consequence, the bond will be devalued dramatically.

就卡特彼勒债券而言,它在九年内偿还了投资者 100 美元投资中的 50 美元。那是债券的久期。这对债券来说已经很长时间了;因此,它的价值对利率的波动反应显着,从利率为 20% 的 49.65 美元到利率为 5% 的 123.16 美元。

In the case of the Caterpillar bond, it paid back $50 of the investors’ $100 investment in nine years. That’s the bond’s duration. This is a long time for a bond; as a consequence, its value responded dramatically to swings in interest rates, from $49.65 with a 20 percent rate to $123.16 with a 5 percent rate.

不用担心数学问题——计算机会为您进行计算。作为为期十天的 MBA,您现在不仅可以向您的经纪人询问债券的收益率,还可以询问其期限,他或她会知道您不仅仅是一名寻求安全投资的退休人员。

Don’t worry about the math—computers will do the calculations for you. As a Ten-Day MBA, you can now ask your broker not only for the bond’s yield, but also for its duration, and he or she will know that you are more than a retiree looking for a safe invest-ment.

 

 

其他类型的债券。还有五种票据债券:零息债券、领事债券、可转换债券、可赎回债券和垃圾债券。

Other Types of Bonds. There are five more types of bonds of note: zero coupon bonds, consuls, convertible bonds, callable bonds, and junk bonds.

息债券不计息,但在到期时一次性支付。投资者以与支付利息的债券相同的方式对债券进行估值,但没有利息支付可以贴现。

A zero coupon bond bears no interest, but pays a lump sum at maturity. Investors value the bond the same way as one that pays interest, but there are no interest payments to discount.

领事永久性债券是一种永远不会偿还本金但会永远支付利息的债券。这些债券很不寻常,但它们仍然在英国发行。估值技术很简单。现金流量或利息支付除以贴现率。一个假设的例子:伦敦电话公司同意发行一个 100 美元的领事,每年支付 8 美元,永远。如果投资者要求 10% 的回报率,则价值为 80 美元 ($8/.10)

A consul or perpetuity is a bond that never pays back the principal, but continues to pay interest forever. These bonds are unusual but they still are issued in the United Kingdom. The valuation technique is simple. The cash flow or interest payment is divided by the discount rate. A hypothetical example: London Telephone agreed to issue a $100 consul that pays $8 each year forever. If investors require a 10 percent rate of return, the value would be $80 ($8/.10)

 

 

图片

有时,一家公司会在债券中添加一项更令人兴奋的条款,称为转换功能。可转换债券可按预先确定的转换比率转换为普通股。例如,假设 Caterpillar 面值 1,000 美元的债券可转换为 10 股股票或每股 100 美元。如果 Caterpillar 的股价升至每股 100 美元以上,债券持有人可能会考虑将其债券转换为普通股。可转换债券的利率通常低于不可转换债券,因为它们为投资者提供了额外的选择。

Sometimes a company adds an even more exciting provision called a conversion feature to bonds. Convertible bonds are convertible to common stock at a predetermined conversion ratio. For example, let’s assume that Caterpillar’s $1,000 face value of bonds was convertible into ten shares of stock or $100 per share. If Caterpillar’s stock price rose above $100 per share, bondholders might consider converting their bonds into common shares of stock. Convertible bonds usually pay a lower interest rate than nonconvertible bonds, because they provide investors with an additional option.

第四种债券是可赎回债券。在某些情况下,如果利率在发行日后大幅下降,发行人希望有权从公众手中回购他们的债券。1981 年,大公司出售债券,每年支付 15% 到 20% 的利息,即现行市场利率。随着后来利率下降,在 1980 年代和 90 年代,包含赎回条款的公司以预定价格回购债券,并在 1990 年代初期以 7% 至 8% 的利率发行新债券,并在 1990 年代后期和 2000 年代购买更多债券新发行的利率为 5% 至 6%。由于赎回条款限制了异常高的回报率,公司必须支付更高的利率才能获得赎回债券的特权。

The fourth type of bond is a callable bond. In some instances issuers want the option to buy back their bonds from the public if interest rates fall significantly after the issue date. In 1981, large corporations sold bonds paying 15 to 20 percent interest per year, the prevailing market rates. As interest rates fell later, in the 1980s and 1990s, the corporations that had included a call provision bought back their bonds at predetermined prices and issued new ones in the early 1990s paying 7 to 8 percent and bought even more in the late 1990s and 2000s for new issues at 5 to 6 percent. Because call provisions limit unusually high rates of return, corporations have to pay a higher interest rate for the privilege of calling back the bonds.

最后一类是垃圾债券,是一种具有高违约风险的债券。它们的风险通常在于它们可能次于一家公司发行的其他债券的债权。垃圾债券向投资者支付更高的利率,而且大多数仍按时支付利息和本金。如果公司没有足够的钱来偿还借款,则次级债持有人最后得到偿付。

The last classification, a junk bond, is a bond that has a high risk of default. Often their risk lies in that they may be subordinated to the claims of other bonds issued by a company. Junk bonds pay higher rates to investors, and most still pay their interest and principal on time. If the company does not have enough money to make payments on its borrowing, the subordinated debt holders get paid last.

只要有债券,垃圾债券就一直存在。南北战争期间,邦联发行了可称为垃圾债券的高风险债券。1980 年代后期,RJR Nabisco、MCI、Macy's 和 Metromedia 等知名公司为收购发行了数十亿张垃圾债券。垃圾债券不是“垃圾”;它们只是有更高的违约风险,因为它们是由信用评级不佳的公司发行的。

Junk bonds have been around as long as there have been bonds. During the Civil War the Confederacy issued risky bonds that could be termed junk bonds. Billions of junk bonds were issued for takeovers in the late 1980s, by such well-known firms as RJR Nabisco, MCI, Macy’s, and Metromedia. Junk bonds are not “junk”; they simply have a higher risk of default because they are issued by companies without stellar credit ratings.

 

 

债券估值摘要

BOND VALUATION SUMMARY

更高的违约风险或更高的市场利率 → 更高的光盘。利率→较低的债券价值

Higher Risk of Default or Higher Market Rates → Higher Disc. Rate → Lower Bond Value

较低的违约风险或较低的市场利率 → 较低的光盘。利率→更高的债券价值

Lower Risk of Default or Lower Market Rates → Lower Disc. Rate → Higher Bond Value

较高的息票率或较短的期限 → 较短的期限 → 价值对市场的波动较小。评价变化。

Higher Coupon Rate or Shorter Maturity → Shorter Duration → Value Less Volatile to Mkt. Rate Chgs.

较低的息票率或更长的期限 → 更长的期限 → 价值对市场的波动性更大。评价变化。

Lower Coupon Rate or Longer Maturity → Longer Duration → Value More Volatile to Mkt. Rate Chgs.

 

 

股市

THE STOCK MARKET

股票没有合同付款条款,也没有到期日。如果收益充足,大多数公司会定期向股东派发股息。但是没有任何保证。根据会计学原理,公司的股权赋予所有者在履行所有其他义务(例如债券)后对收益和资产的剩余索取权。如果没有收益,股票就没有什么价值。有了足够的利润,债券就会按时支付,希望有一部分留给股东。

Stocks have no contractual terms of payment and no maturity. If earnings are adequate, most companies regularly pay dividends to stockholders. But there are no guarantees. Building on the teachings of accounting, equity ownership of a company entitles the owner to the residual claim on earnings and assets after all the other obligations, such as bonds, have been met. If there are no earnings, there’s little value to the stock. With adequate profits, bonds are paid on time and hopefully there is a portion left for stockholders.

股票有很多名字,这取决于公司的特点。

Stocks are called by many names, depending on the company’s characteristics.

股票类别

CLASSES OF STOCKS

类别:成长股

CLASS: Growth Stocks

描述:快速成长的公司

DESCRIPTION: Rapidly Growing Companies

示例:谷歌、Netflix

EXAMPLES: Google, Netflix

 

 

类别:蓝筹股

CLASS: Blue-Chip Stocks

描述:非常大的公司

DESCRIPTION: Very Large Companies

示例:可口可乐、微软

EXAMPLES: Coca-Cola, Microsoft

 

 

类别:周期性股票

CLASS: Cyclical Stocks

描述:随经济波动很大

DESCRIPTION: Fluctuate Greatly with Economy

示例:福特、美国联合航空公司

EXAMPLES: Ford, United Airlines

 

 

类别:细价股

CLASS: Penny Stocks

描述:风险小、股价低的公司

DESCRIPTION: Risky, Small Companies with Low Share Prices

示例: Jet Electro

EXAMPLES: Jet Electro

 

 

股息增长模型。投资分析师尝试对股票进行估值的一种方法是对股息现金流进行估值。该价值模型在其公式中非常重视股息增长。然而,它并不总能给出合理的答案。

The Dividend Growth Model. One way that investment analysts try to value stocks is by valuing the dividend cash flow. This value model heavily weights dividend growth in its formula. However, it does not always yield a reasonable answer.

 

 

图片

卡特彼勒公司的股票就是一个很好的例子。1992 年,公司支付了每股 1.20 美元的年度股息。使用 CAPM 方程式,卡特彼勒 1.2 的贝塔所需利率为 16.8%,与当时 IBM 的相同。过去几年,卡特彼勒董事会平均将股息提高了 12%。考虑到股息增长模型中的这些输入值,该股票本应价值 25 美元。

The stock of Caterpillar Inc. is a good example. In 1992 the company paid a $1.20 yearly dividend per share. Using the CAPM equation, the required rate for Caterpillar’s beta of 1.2 was 16.8 percent, the same as IBM’s at the time. Caterpillar’s board of directors had raised their dividend an average 12 percent for the last few years. With those inputs in the dividend growth model, the stock should have been worth $25.

 

 

图片

但卡特彼勒在 1992 年 5 月的实际交易价格为每股 56 美元。要么公司得到的不仅仅是红利,要么市场已经疯了。但可能不是。投资者还必须对公司的资产和未来收益进行估值。

But Caterpillar actually traded at $56 per share in May 1992. Either there must have been more than just dividends to the company, or the market had gone nuts. But probably not. Investors must also have valued the company’s assets and future earnings as well.

分析师如何处理支付少量股息的沃尔玛商店?分析师如何评价没有收益和分红的互联网公司?没有简单的公式,但以下是证券分析师用来计算价值的一些其他方法。

What is an analyst to do with Wal-Mart stores, the discounter that pays small dividends? How do analysts value Internet firms that have no earnings and no dividends? There are no easy formulas, but the following are a few additional methods used by securities analysts to calculate value.

 

 

市盈率。分析师比较当前股价与当前或预计每股收益 (EPS) 的比率。这种市盈率(PE 比率)可能是使用最广泛的估值方法。很简单。每个人都可以将价格除以每股收益。最好的是,大多数公司的 EPS 都被广泛公布。如果该比率符合企业的行业和市场,那么它可能表明其当前股价的适当性。为了说明市盈率的广泛使用,以下是一位选股者的建议:

Price-Earnings Ratio. Analysts compare the ratio of the current stock price to the current or projected earnings per share (EPS). This price-earnings ratio (PE ratio) is probably the most widely used valuation method. It is simple. Everyone can divide price by earnings per share. Best yet, the EPS of most companies are widely published. If that ratio is in line with the industry of the business and with the market, then it may indicate the propriety of its current stock price. To illustrate the wide use of the PE ratio, the following was a stock picker’s recommendation:

 

 

44 美元的 Corestates Financial,旧费城国家银行,相对于其他银行的市盈率较低,股息收益率高于提到的其他银行。存在强烈的购买兴趣。

Corestates Financial at $44, the old Philadelphia National Bank, has a low price-earnings multiple relative to other banks, and its dividend yield is higher than other banks mentioned. Strong buying interest exists.

 

 

PEG比率是对影响收益增长的市盈率的扭曲。PEG 比率是通过将公司的 PE 除以其预计的长期收益增长率来计算的。这一增长预测存在很大的不确定性。PEG 接近或低于 1.0 被认为是可能的便宜货。2005 年 1 月,互联网软件和服务提供商新浪的交易价格为 30 美元,PEG 比率为 0.6,极具吸引力。到 2011 年 7 月,市场已经认识到其价值,新浪的交易价格为 110 美元,PEG 比率为 5。

The PEG ratio is a twist on the price-earnings ratio that factors in earnings growth. The PEG ration is calculated by dividing a company’s PE by its projected long-term earnings growth rate. That growth projection is subject to a great deal of uncertainty. PEGs near or below 1.0 are considered possible bargains. In January 2005, Sina, an Internet software and service provider, traded at $30 and had an attractive PEG ratio of 0.6. By July 2011, the market had recognized the value, and Sina traded at $110 and had a PEG ratio of 5.

 

 

每股帐面价值的倍数。这种使用资产负债表信息的计算将股价除以每股资产的账面价值。1992 年,生物制药公司 ImClone Systems 以账面价值的 331 倍出售。福布斯强调它可能被高估了,但小型新公司的比率通常是不寻常的。投资者通常看重初创公司的潜在成功,而不是它们目前的规模。在这种情况下,ImClone 的股票从 1992 年的 26 美元高位暴跌至 1995 年的 0.31 美元,当时生物技术已不再受投资者青睐。当销售在 1998 年实现时,它的交易价格为每股 10 美元,是账面价值的五倍。据称,当玛莎·斯图尔特在 2000 年 12 月听到有关 ImClone 的 FDA 药物申请失败的坏消息时,她以每股 60 美元的价格出售了她的股票,当时它的交易价格是账面价值的 36 倍。

Multiple of Book Value per Share. This calculation using balance-sheet information divides the share price by the book value of assets per share. In 1992, ImClone Systems, a biopharmaceuticals company, sold at 331 times its book value. Forbes highlighted it as possibly overvalued, but the ratios of small, new companies are often unusual. Investors often value the potential success of start-up companies, not their current size. In this case, ImClone’s stock plummeted from a high of $26 in 1992 to $.31 in 1995, when biotechnology fell out of favor with investors. When sales materialized in 1998, it traded at $10 a share, five times its book value. When Martha Stewart allegedly heard bad news about ImClone’s failed FDA drug application in December 2000, she sold her stock at $60 a share, when it traded at thirty-six times book value.

 

 

市销率。股票价格除以销售额是公式。1999 年,互联网拍卖网站 eBay, Inc. 的市销率为 1,681。由于销售额很少,倍数很大。投资者正在购买互联网的未来。当销售在 2004 年实现时,eBay 的销售价格比为 23,相对合理一些。

Price-to-Sales Ratio. Stock price divided by sales is the formula. In 1999, eBay, Inc., an Internet auction site, had a price-to-sales ratio of 1,681. With few sales, the multiple was large. Investors were buying the future of the Internet. When sales materialized in 2004, eBay had a somewhat more reasonable twenty-three sales-to-price ratio.

 

 

每股资产价值。当一家公司的资产价值除以已发行股票的价值高于股票价格所显示的价值时,分析师可能会忽略其他比率。石油股的收购狂潮是由于它们的股价低于其石油和天然气储量的价值。结果,Getty、Gulf、Mesa 和 Phillips 展开了一场竞购战,使他们的股票在 1980 年代飙升。

Asset Value per Share. When a company’s assets value divided by the outstanding shares is more valuable than the price of the stock indicates, then analysts might overlook other ratios. The buyout binge in oil stocks was due their share prices being below the value of their oil and gas reserves. As a result, Getty, Gulf, Mesa, and Phillips engaged in a bidding war that made their shares soar in the 1980s.

 

 

每股现金流的倍数。一些分析师之所以对公司进行估值,是因为它们有能力产生现金(以公司的现金流量表衡量)。以卡特彼勒为例,它在 1992 年每股发行在外的股票产生 5.90 美元的收益。每股 56 美元,股票定价为现金流量的 9.5 倍。展望未来,分析师预计 1993 年为 11.10 美元,随后几年为 17.80 美元,即预计现金流量的三倍。这就是一些看涨的投资者看到卡特彼勒价值的地方。如果一组分析师以 16.8% 的贴现率对每年 17.80 美元的现金流进行永久估值,则该股票的净现值为 100 美元 (17.80/.168)。对他们来说,56 美元的 Caterpillar 仍然很便宜。1999 年的交易价格为 60 美元,2004 年和 2011 年的交易价格为 83 美元;他们都错了。

Multiple of Cash Flow per Share. Some analysts value companies because of their ability to generate cash as measured by the company’s cash flow statement. In Caterpillar’s case, it produced $5.90 for each share outstanding in 1992. At $56 per share, the stock was priced at 9.5 times cash flow. Looking forward, analysts projected $11.10 in 1993 and $17.80 in later years, or three times the projected cash flow. That is where some bullish investors saw the value of Caterpillar. If a group of analysts valued the $17.80 cash flow per year in perpetuity at a 16.8 percent discount rate, the stock would have a net present value of $100 (17.80/.168). To them, at $56 Caterpillar was still cheap. It traded at $60 in 1999 and $83 in 2004 and 2011; they were all wrong.

在股票市场上,总是有买家和卖家。失衡导致价格变动。存在许多价值衡量标准,但唯一真正重要的是当前报价,无论它看起来多么疯狂。如果市场愿意以 200 美元的价格购买 Caterpillar,那么就是它的价值。当然,如果供大于求,价格就会下跌。但那是我们的经济学章节。

In a stock market there are always buyers and sellers. Imbalances cause price movements. Many yardsticks of value exist, but the only one that truly matters is the current quote, no matter how crazy it may appear. If the market is willing to buy Caterpillar at $200, then that is its value. Of course, if there is more supply than demand, prices fall. But that’s for our economics chapter.

 

 

优先股。这是普通股的特权表亲。优先股是债券和普通股的混合体,由许多公用事业、银行和钢铁公司发行。优先股具有债券的特征,因为它们支付固定的股息率并且没有投票权。与普通股一样,只有先偿还债务才能支付股息,没有到期日。然而,大多数发行人都规定随着时间的推移购买和退役他们的优先股。优先股对公司资产的债权高于普通股,但低于债务。

Preferred Stock. This is the privileged cousin of common stock. Preferred shares, a hybrid of a bond and a common stock, are issued by many utilities, banks, and steel companies. Preferreds have the characteristics of a bond inasmuch as they pay a fixed dividend rate and have no voting rights. As in the case of common stocks, their dividends can only be paid if debt payments are made first, and there is no maturity. However, most issuers make provisions to purchase and retire their preferred stock over time. A preferred stock’s claims on the assets of the firm are superior to common stock but are subordinated to debt.

当公司想借钱但不想按合同义务按时支付利息时,公司会发行优先股。大多数优先发行是累积的,这意味着所有未支付的股息总额必须在支付普通股股息之前支付。喜欢更安全的股息,但喜欢拥有部分股权的好处的投资者,选择优先股。

Companies issue preferred stock when they want to borrow money but don’t want to be contractually obligated to pay interest on time. Most preferred issues are cumulative, meaning that the total of all unpaid dividends must be paid before dividends on common stocks can be paid. Investors who like a more secure dividend, but like to have the benefits of partial equity ownership, choose preferred stocks.

 

 

期权市场

THE OPTIONS MARKET

期权是在规定日期或之前以固定价格买卖任何资产的合同权利。期权可以交易房地产、债券、黄金、石油、货币甚至抵押贷款。期权是一种用很少的钱获得对大量资产的控制权的方法。获利的机会很高,因此风险也很高。

Options are contractual rights to buy or sell any asset at a fixed price on or before a stated date. Options can be traded on real estate, bonds, gold, oil, currencies, or even mortgages. An option is a way to gain control of a great deal of assets with little money. The opportunity for profits is high, and, accordingly, so are the risks.

因为这些期权不是资产本身,所以被称为衍生品。任何根据另一个证券的价值而创造的证券都是衍生品。股票期权、认股权证、指数期权、商品期权和商品期货就是例子。

Because these option rights are not the asset itself, they are called derivatives. Any security that is created that is valued based on the value of another is a derivative. Stock options, stock warrants, index options, commodity options, and commodity futures are examples.

想象一下,购房者 GR Quick 认为比佛利山庄的房价即将飙升。然而,他需要六个月的时间来筹集首付并获得融资。一位自愿的业主同意以 1,000,000 美元的价格将他的平房卖给他,但希望以 5,000 美元的价格购买将其在市场上保留六个月的选择权。在六个月内,期权持有人奎克先生有权但没有义务以 1,000,000 美元的价格购买该房屋。如果房地产市场下跌,奎克先生可以让他的 5,000 美元期权以 100% 的损失到期。

Imagine G. R. Quick, a house buyer, who believes that prices are about to skyrocket in Beverly Hills. However, he needs six months to raise the down payment and get financing. A willing owner agrees to sell him his bungalow at $1,000,000, but wants $5,000 for the option to hold it off the market for six months. For six months Mr. Quick, the option holder, has the right, but not the obligation, to purchase the house for $1,000,000. If the real estate market falls, Mr. Quick can let his $5,000 option expire at a 100 percent loss.

但期权也可以非常有利可图。如果平房的价值增加到 1,050,000 美元,则 5,000 美元期权的回报率为 1,000%。如果他以 1,000,000 美元的价格直接买下房子,他的回报率将只有 5%。期权的本质是通过投资资产价值的一小部分来控制资产的命运。如果标的资产的价值波动,收益是杠杆收益或可能的全部损失。

But options can also be very profitable. If the bungalow increases in value to say $1,050,000, the return on the $5,000 option would be 1,000 percent. If he buys the house outright for $1,000,000, his return would be only 5 percent. The essence of options is to control the destiny of an asset with an investment of a fraction of that asset’s value. The payoff is a leveraged payoff or a possible total loss if the underlying asset’s value fluctuates.

股票期权的运作方式与所讨论的房地产交易相同。期权是买入或卖出股票的“权利”:

Stock options work in the same way as in the real estate deal discussed. An option is “the right” to buy or sell a stock:

 

 

以规定价格——行使价

at a stated price—the strike price

到某个日期——到期日

by a certain date—the expiration date

以特权为代价——期权费

at a cost for the privilege—the option premium

 

 

购买股票的期权称为看涨期权(买入股票中的“买入”。)将股票出售给其他人的权利称为看跌期权。(“把它”卖给其他人。)看涨期权和看跌期权的价值走势相反。如果股票价格上涨,那么以固定价格购买它的看涨期权的价值就会增加。如果一只股票的价格下跌,它的看涨期权价值就会下降。相反,看跌期权的价值在标的股票价格下跌时增加,在股票价格上涨时减少。

Options to purchase stocks are called calls. (“Call” in the stock to buy.) Rights to sell a stock to somebody else are called puts. (“Put” it to somebody else for sale.) The values of call and put options move in opposite directions. If a stock price rises, then the value of a call option to buy it, at a fixed price, increases. If a stock’s price falls, its call value decreases. Conversely, the value of a put option increases when the underlying stock price falls and decreases when the stock price increases.

在历史最悠久、规模最大的芝加哥期权交易所 (CBOE),交易员买卖 100 股股票的期权,就像 Quick 先生购买房地产期权一样。股票期权的购买者购买股票在一段时间内升值(看涨)或贬值(看跌)的权利。备兑期权的卖方,称为期权卖方,买方出售他们拥有的股票的权利。如果期权卖方出售未持有股票的期权,则该期权称为期权。它们不包括在内。

On the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), the oldest and largest exchange, traders buy and sell options on blocks of one hundred shares of stocks in the same way as Mr. Quick bought an option on real estate. Buyers of stock options buy the right to the appreciation (calls) or depreciation (puts) of a stock for a period of time. Sellers, called option writers, of covered options sell to buyers the rights on the stocks that they own. If an option writer sells an option on a stock not owned, the options are called naked options. They are not covered.

期权估值有两种类型,理论价值和市场价值。理论价值是标的股票的市场价格与期权的执行价格之间的差值。例如,当股票的市场价格为 45 美元时,以 40 美元的价格购买可口可乐的看涨期权的理论价格为 5 美元。但是,期权的写入时间较长。因此,市场价值是理论价值加上到期日之前价格变动获利机会的溢价之和。随着到期日的临近,获利的时间越来越少,因此溢价被侵蚀。在到期日,期权根据被选择证券的市场价值以现金结算。市场价值等于理论价值,因为未来收益不再有溢价。

There are two types of option valuations, theoretical and market value. The theoretical value is the difference between the underlying stock’s market price and the option’s strike price. For example, a call option to buy Coca-Cola at $40 when the market price of the stock is $45 would have a theoretical price of $5. However, options are written for extended periods of time. Therefore, the market value is the sum of the theoretical value plus a premium for the chance of profitable price movements until the expiration date. As the date of expiration approaches, there is less time for profits, so the premium erodes. On the expiration date, the option is settled for cash based on the optioned security’s market value. The market value equals the theoretical value because there is no longer a premium for future gains.

期权价值波动的方式

THE WAY OPTION VALUES FLUCTUATE

图片

期权估值。1973 年,Fisher Black 和 Myron Scholes 发表了一个模型,该模型成为全世界期权估值的行业标准。在Black-Scholes 期权定价模型中,期权的计算值由五个因素决定:

Option Valuations. In 1973, Fisher Black and Myron Scholes published a model that became the industry standard for option valuations throughout the world. In the Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model, an option’s calculated value is determined by five factors:

 

 

到期前的时间——选择的时间越长,所需价格变动的可能性就越大。这就是时间溢价。

Time until expiration—The longer the optioned time, the more chance of a desired price movement. That’s the time premium.

当前股票价格与执行价格之间的差异——执行价格越接近当前价格,当前价格走势在到期日之前达到或超过它的可能性就越大。

The difference between the current stock price and the strike price—The closer the strike price is to the current price the more probable it is that current price movements can meet or exceed it by the expiration date.

股票的价格波动——股票的价格波动越大,价格波动越有可能跳到执行价附近。

The price volatility of the stock—The more volatile the price movement of a stock, the more likely that a price movement could jump near the strike price.

短期政府证券的市场利率——如果交易的融资成本很高,那么期权价格必须更高才能支付交易的手续费。

The market rate of interest on short-term government securities—If the cost of financing the transaction is high, then the option price has to be higher to cover the handling costs of the transaction.

股票的股息支付——期权所有者不收取标的股票的股息,但影响期权价格的股票价格受到影响。

Dividend payments on the stock—Option owners do not collect the dividends on the underlying stock, but the stock price that influences the option price is affected.

 

 

通过将这五个输入值放入一个简单的计算机电子表格中,可以计算出看涨期权和看跌期权的大致价格。因为每个人都使用某种形式的 Black-Scholes 模型,所以这些模型产生的价格接近市场价格。这与普通股估值形成鲜明对比,在普通股估值中,投资分析师使用数千种方法来确定他们自己的“正确”价值。

One can calculate the approximate prices of calls and puts by placing these five inputs into a simple computer spreadsheet. Because everybody uses some form of the Black-Scholes model, the prices produced by these models are close to the market price. That is in sharp contrast to common stock valuations, in which investment analysts use thousands of methods to determine their own “correct” value.

 

 

看涨期权示例。乐观的股票期权交易者如果认为标的股票在短期内会上涨,就会买入买入股票的看涨期权。例如,我们打电话给我们的期权交易员 Billy Peligro。2011 年 6 月 15 日,比利在《华尔街日报》上看到沃尔玛商店的普通股报价为每股 54 美元。到 9 月以 55 美元的价格购买一股沃尔玛股票的看涨权交易价格为 2.69 美元。比利打赌沃尔玛到 9 月 (SEP) 的交易价格将大大高于 55 美元,他为这个机会支付了 2.69 美元。如果期权在 6 月份的购买日到期,则 55 美元的期权购买价格将“虚值”1 美元,并且该期权将一文不值。55 美元的沃尔玛看涨期权的价值在图形上看起来像一根曲棍球棒。它随股票价格而变化。

A Call Option Example. Optimistic stock options traders buy calls to purchase stock if they believe the underlying stock will increase in the near term. For example, let’s call our options trader Billy Peligro. On June 15, 2011, Billy saw Wal-Mart stores common stock quoted at $54 per share in the Wall Street Journal. The call right to purchase one share of Wal-Mart by September at $55 traded at $2.69. Billy bet that Wal-Mart would trade significantly above $55 by September (SEP), and he paid $2.69 for the chance. If the option expired on the day of purchase in June, the option purchase price of $55 would have been “out of the money,” by one dollar, and the option would be worthless. The value of a $55 call option of Wal-Mart graphically looks like a hockey stick. It varies with the stock price.

但是 2.69 美元是正确的价格吗?将沃尔玛普通股的五个因素和有关期权的详细信息代入 Black-Scholes 黑盒电子表格,您的作者的结果是 2.66 美元的价格。很接近了!

But is $2.69 the correct price? Plugging the five factors of Wal-Mart’s common stock and the particulars about the option into the Black-Scholes black-box spreadsheet, the outcome for your author was a $2.66 price. Pretty close!

沃尔玛 SEP 55 美元看涨期权的价值

THE VALUE OF A WAL-MART SEP $55 CALL OPTION

图片

沃尔玛 SEP 55 美元看跌期权的价值

THE VALUE OF A WAL-MART SEP $55 PUT OPTION

图片

看跌期权示例。让我们看看相反的情况,悲观的 Billy Peligro。当 6 月份的市场价格为 54 美元时,他在 9 月份购买了一份以 55 美元的价格出售沃尔玛的看跌期权进行结算。那是一美元“实值”,因为他有权在市场价格为 54 美元时以 55 美元卖出。2011 年 6 月 15 日,该期权的市场价格(或“公允价值”)为 2.75 美元。价值中的一美元是“实值”(或“内在价值”),另外 1.75 美元是三个月的溢价赚更多的钱。如果股价进一步下跌,Peligro 先生有权以 55 美元的价格出售 Wal-Mart 的股票,无论它跌到多低。检查 Black-Scholes 的合理性,2.75 美元的市场价值接近看跌期权的模型价值。看跌期权的可能值图表是看涨期权的曲棍球棒的倒转。

Put Option Example. Let’s look at the opposite situation, a pessimistic Billy Peligro. He bought a put option to sell Wal-Mart at $55 for settlement in September when the market price was $54 in June. That was one dollar “in the money” because he had the right to sell at $55 when the market was at $54. The market price (or “fair value”) for the option was $2.75 on June 15, 2011. One dollar of the value was “in the money” (or “intrinsic value”) and the other $1.75 was the premium for three months to make more money. If the stock fell further, Mr. Peligro had the right to sell a share of Wal-Mart stock at $55, no matter how low it might have gone. Checking Black-Scholes for reasonableness, the $2.75 market value was close to the modeled value of the put. The put’s graph of possible values is the call’s hockey stick in reverse.

 

 

期权策略和对冲。期权是高风险投资,但可以通过对冲来降低风险。对冲是购买期权以抵消自有投资价值可能下降的影响。与其他选项一样,它可以用于多种类型的资产。假设风险厌恶投资者 Scared E. Cat 先生持有相同份额的沃尔玛股票,交易价格为 54 美元,但由于存在下行风险,他想保护自己免受急剧下跌的影响。投资者本可以在 2011 年 6 月以 1 美元的价格以 50 美元的执行价格购买三个月的看跌期权。看跌期权将确保他可以在接下来的三个月内以至少 50 美元的价格出售他在沃尔玛的股票。卖出期权的人认为发生这种情况的风险很小,并乐于接受 1 美元的溢价,希望它对 Cat 先生没有价值。

Options Strategies and Hedging. Options are highly risky investments, but their risk can be reduced by hedging. Hedging is buying an option to offset a possible decline in value in an owned investment. Like other options, it can be taken on many types of assets. Suppose that a risk-adverse investor, Mr. Scared E. Cat, owned the same share of Wal-Mart stock trading at $54, but because of the downside risk, he wanted to protect himself from a steep decline. The investor could have bought a three-month put option at a $50 strike price for $1 in June 2011. The put would have ensured that he could have sold his Wal-Mart share for at least $50 in the next three months. The person who wrote the option believed that there was little risk of that happening and was happy to take the $1 premium, hoping it would have no value to Mr. Cat.

如果沃尔玛跌至 40 美元,则仅需 1 美元的看跌期权在到期时价值 10 美元。认沽期权卖方将有义务付款。对于 Cat 先生,期权的 10 美元收益将部分抵消股票价值从 54 美元跌至 40 美元时的 14 美元损失。这就是为什么许多人将期权市场视为将风险从一个投资者转移到另一个投资者的一种方式。

If Wal-Mart fell to $40, the put option that cost only one dollar would be worth $10 at expiration. The put writer would be obligated to pay up. For Mr. Cat, the option’s $10 gain would partially offset the $14 loss in the value of the stock from $54 to $40. That is why many people view the options market as a way to shift risk from one investor to another.

除了简单的对冲之外,期权交易者和投资组合经理还使用许多期权策略。老练的投资者以多种方式将期权和股票结合起来,使用价差、蝴蝶、秃鹰、跨式盒子。

Option traders and portfolio managers use many options strategies in addition to simple hedges. Sophisticated investors combine options and stocks in many ways, using spreads, butterflies, condors, straddles, and boxes.

除了看跌期权外,如果投资者想押注股票的价值会下跌,他或她还可以做空股票。在此交易中,您借入股票进行卖出,并希望以后以较低的价格购回。就像期权一样,卖空可以成为对冲策略的一部分。

In addition to put options, an investor can short a stock if he or she would like to bet that a stock’s value will decline. In this transaction, you borrow the stock to sell it, with the hope of repurchasing it later at a lower price. And just as with options, short selling can be part of a hedging strategy.

 

 

更多关于衍生品

MORE ON DERIVATIVES

衍生品是一种金融工具,其价值基于其他资产或变量的价值。除了已经讨论过的期权之外,最常见的衍生品称为期货掉期。衍生品估值所依据的基础资产包括股票、商品、货币和利率。它们还可以包括其他不可交易的项目,例如信誉甚至天气。当基础资产的价值发生变化时,衍生品的价值也会同步变化。与沃尔玛股票描述的期权一样,投资者可以对冲风险或推测资产价值的变化。

Derivatives are financial instruments that base their value on the value of other assets or variables. In addition to options already discussed, the most common derivatives are called futures and swaps. The underlying assets on which the derivatives are valued include stocks, commodities, currencies, and interest rates. They can also include other non-tradable items such as creditworthiness or even weather. When the underlying asset’s value changes, the derivative’s value changes in lockstep. As with the options described on Wal-Mart stock, investors can either hedge a risk or speculate on changes in asset values.

称为期货的衍生品是在未来的结算日购买商品(如黄金、石油或谷物)或金融资产(如标准普尔 500 股票指数)的合约。合同可以在该日期以现金或商品交付方式结算,具体取决于合同。随着标的资产价值的变化,未来的价值也会发生变化。期货可能具有很高的风险,因为它们的杠杆率很高。根据期货合约,投资者可以通过每天按市价计价的保证金账户控制资产价值的 20 倍。如果资产价值下跌,投资者必须在当天提供更多的保证金现金。

Derivatives called futures are contracts to buy commodities (such as gold, oil, or grain) or financial assets (such as the S&P 500 stock index) on a settlement date in the future. The contract can be settled on that date with either cash or the delivery of the commodity, depending on the contract. As the value of the underlying asset changes, the value of the future changes. Futures can be very risky because they are highly leveraged. Depending on the futures contract, investors can control 20 times the value of the asset with a margin account that is marked-to-market on a daily basis. If the asset’s value moves down, the investor must supply more margin cash that day.

使用称为互换的衍生工具,金融机构以协商的费用向投资者或机构保证或“互换”资产价值变化的风险。利率上升和债券支付违约是掉期保险最常见的风险。掉期购买者不一定需要拥有相关的标的资产;他们可能只是在猜测负面事件会发生。

Using a derivative called a swap, a financial institution insures or “swaps” the risk of value changes of an asset with an investor or institution for a negotiated fee. Interest rate increases and bond payment defaults are the most common risks insured by swaps. Swap purchasers do not necessarily need to own the underlying asset involved; they may just be speculating that negative events will occur.

2008年的金融危机是由房地产价格暴跌引发的,但衍生品却让危机崩盘。包括保险巨头 AIG 在内的大型机构向投资者出售信用违约掉期(CDS),为住宅抵押债务提供保险,称为抵押抵押债券(CMO),以应对违约风险。当违约率高于预期的可能性增加时,掉期价值增加以弥补损失,AIG 欠掉期购买者数千亿美元。AIG 在出售 CDS 时认为抵押贷款违约率高的可能性很小,因此它对掉期保险合同收取的费用很少。持有相反观点的投资者急切地购买了廉价的 CDS。最终政府不得不在 2008 年接管 AIG。现在每个人都知道“有毒抵押贷款”这个词。

The financial crash in 2008 was caused by the collapse of real estate prices, but the derivatives made the crisis a meltdown. Large institutions, including insurance giant AIG, sold credit default swaps (CDS) to investors that insured bundles of residential mortgage debt, called collateralized mortgage obligations (CMO), against the risk of default. When the likelihood of higher-than-expected defaults increased, swap values increased to cover the losses, and AIG owed swap purchasers hundreds of billions of dollars. AIG thought the probability of high mortgage default was remote when it sold the CDSs, so it charged very little for the swap insurance contracts. Investors who believed the opposite eagerly bought the inexpensive CDSs. Ultimately the government had to take over AIG in 2008. Now everyone knows the term “toxic mortgage.”

 

 

财务管理

FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT

公司如何为自己筹措资金,并从其股东或债权人那里筹集的资金获得最大回报是财务管理的本质。选择进入财务管理领域的 MBA 执行两个主要功能:

How a company funds itself and maximizes the return on money raised from its shareholders or debt holders is the essence of financial management. MBAs who choose to go into financial management perform two major functions:

 

 

商业投资决策——公司应该拥有哪些资产?企业应该投资哪些项目?

Business Investment Decisions—What assets should the firm own? In what projects should the business invest?

融资决策——这些投资应该如何支付?

Financing Decisions—How should those investments be paid for?

 

 

商业投资决策

BUSINESS INVESTMENT DECISIONS

公司可以进行多种投资。财务经理的工作是帮助管理团队评估投资、对投资进行排序并提出选择建议。这种活动的 MBA 术语是资本预算。

There are many investments that a company can make. It is a financial manager’s job to help the management team evaluate investments, rank them, and suggest choices. The MBA term for such activity is capital budgeting.

在定量分析一章中,桂格燕麦示例描述了用于决定是否投资新谷物灌装设备的技术。Quaker 经理使用贴现现金流来计算项目的净现值 (NPV)。在营销章节中,推出新咖啡品牌的决定是通过投资回收期这一更简单的衡量标准来评估的。然而,有些投资违背了财务分析。例如,慈善捐赠提供了财务经理无法单独评估的无形收益。

In the quantitative analysis chapter, the Quaker Oats example described the techniques used to decide whether to invest in new cereal filling equipment. Quaker managers used discounted cash flows to calculate the net present value (NPV) of the project. In the marketing chapter, the decision to launch a new coffee brand was evaluated by a simpler measure, the payback period. Some investments, however, defy financial analysis. Charitable donations, for example, provide intangible benefits that financial managers alone cannot evaluate.

投资决策属于三个基本决策类别之一:

Investment decisions fall into one of three basic decision categories:

 

 

接受或拒绝单一投资建议

Accept or Reject a Single Investment Proposal

选择一项竞争性投资而不是另一项

Choose One Competing Investment over Another

资本配给——在有限的投资池中,资本配给告诉我们应该从众多项目中选择哪些项目。

Capital Rationing—With a limited investment pool, capital rationing tells which projects among many should be chosen.

 

 

每个公司都使用自己的标准来分配其有限的资源。MBA 使用的主要工具是:

Each corporation uses its own criteria to ration its limited resources. The major tools that MBAs use are:

 

 

投资回收期

Payback Period

净现值

Net Present Value

 

 

投资回收期法。许多公司认为,判断投资的最佳方式是计算收回投资所需的时间:

Payback Period Method. Many companies believe that the best way to judge investments is to calculate the amount of time it takes to recover their investments:

 

 

投资回报=收回初始投资的年数

Payback = Number of Years to Recover Initial Investment

分析师可以轻松计算投资回收期,并根据所需的投资回收期做出简单的接受或拒绝决策。那些接近标准的项目被接受,而那些达不到标准的项目被拒绝。例如,一家小公司的管理者可能认为,所有节能省力的设备都应该有最长三年的回报期,所有新设备都应该在八年内“回报”,而研究项目应该在十年内回报. 这些要求基于管理层的判断、经验和风险规避程度。

Analysts can easily calculate paybacks and make simple accept-or-reject decisions based on a required payback period. Those projects that come close to the mark are accepted, and those falling short are rejected. For example, the managers of a small company may believe that all energy- and laborsaving devices should have a maximum three-year payback, and that all new equipment should “pay back” in eight years, whereas research projects should pay back in ten years. Those requirements are based on management’s judgment, experience, and level of risk aversion.

通过接受回报期更长的项目,管理层接受了更多的风险。一项投资的回报期越长,它的不确定性和风险就越大。这个概念类似于债券投资者使用的衡量标准,久期。投资者收回一半债券投资所需的时间越长,风险就越大。

By accepting projects with longer paybacks, management accepts more risk. The further out an investment’s payback, the more uncertain and risky it is. The concept is similar to the measure bond investors use, duration. The longer it takes an investor to recover half of his or her bond investment, the riskier it is.

投资回收期标准是可取的,因为它们易于计算、使用和理解。但是,他们忽略了现金流量的时间,因此也忽略了货币的时间价值。现金流差异很大的项目可以有相同的投资回收期。例如,一个研究项目在三年内以 33,333 美元的分期付款平均偿还 100,000 美元的投资,其三年回报率与三年末收到的单笔 100,000 美元回报相同。

Payback period criteria are desirable because they are easy to calculate, use, and understand. However, they ignore the timing of cash flows, and accordingly, the time value of money. Projects with vastly different cash flows can have the same payback period. For example, a research project that repays a $100,000 investment evenly in $33,333 installments over three years has the same three-year payback as the single $100,000 return received at the end of three years.

使用回收期的另一个缺点是它忽略了回收期后收到的现金流量。如果这项耗资 10 万美元、三年回收的研究项目由于一项新发明而持续不断地产生一连串的版税怎么办?显然,它比在发明生命周期的第三年一次性支付 100,000 美元的项目更有价值。

Another shortcoming of using payback is that it ignores the cash flows received after the payback. What if the $100,000 research project with a three-year payback continued to churn out a stream of royalties forever as a result of a new invention? Clearly it would be worth much more than a project that had a onetime payout of $100,000 in the third year of the invention’s life.

 

 

净现值法。用于评估债券和股票现金流量的相同方法也用于评估项目。这是最准确、理论上最正确的方法。

Net Present Value Methods. The same method used for valuing the cash flows of bonds and stocks is also used to value projects. It is the most accurate and most theoretically correct method.

未来一美元收到的时间越长,收到它的不确定性(风险)就越大,使用这些资金的机会损失就越大(机会成本)。因此,未来收到的现金流量将根据项目的风险程度进行更大幅度的贴现。

The further in the future a dollar is received, the greater the uncertainty that it will be received (risk) and the greater the loss of opportunity to use those funds (opportunity costs). Accordingly, cash flows received in the future will be discounted more steeply depending on the riskiness of the project.

 

 

NPV =应收现金× (1 +贴现率) 期数

(根据附录中的表格或使用商业计算器和计算机计算)

NPV = Cash to Be Received × (1 + Discount Rate) Number of Periods

(as calculated in tables in the appendix or by using business calculators and computers)

公司希望为自己提供资金的方式是独立于“投资”决策的“融资”决策。在评估项目时,一个明显的非 MBA 错误是使用等于整个公司的借贷成本或资本成本的贴现系数。企业可能想要投资的个别项目并不那么稳定。因此,财务经理必须使用与特定项目的风险相称的贴现率。公司整体的“价值”是通过使用正确的利率创造的,同时也选择了回报高于公司资本成本的项目。

The ways in which a corporation wishes to fund itself are “financing” decisions independent of “investment” decisions. A glaring non-MBA mistake in evaluating projects is to use a discount factor equal to the cost of borrowing or cost of capital for the corporation as a whole. The individual projects that businesses may want to invest in are not as stable. Accordingly, financial managers must use a discount rate commensurate with the risk of the particular project. “Value” for the corporation as a whole is created by using the correct rate, but also choosing projects with returns above the corporation’s cost of capital.

在 QA 章节中的 Quaker Oats 工厂示例中,现金流量如下所示:

In the Quaker Oats factory example from the QA chapter, the cash flows looked as follows:

10% 折扣

10% DISCOUNT

图片

 

 

NPV 方法表示该项目的回报率超过具有该风险水平的项目所需的回报率 32,343 美元。NPV 为 0 美元的项目也是可以接受的,因为它们返回所需的利率。那些低于零的被断然拒绝。

The NPV method says that the project returned $32,343 in excess of the required rate of return for a project with that level of risk. Projects that have NPVs of $0 are also acceptable because they return the required rate. Those below zero are flatly rejected.

NPV 有很多优点。它可以灵活地进行有助于比较不同项目的计算。

NPV has many advantages. It is flexible in making calculations that are useful in comparing different projects.

项目的风险。在计算 NPV 时,分析师可以使用不同的贴现率。例如,如果他或她认为 Quaker Oats 的新型燕麦片灌装设备的利润风险更大,则 15% 或 20% 的贴现率将使该项目的价值分别为 21,019 美元或 11,217 美元。

Riskiness of Projects. In calculating the NPV an analyst can use different discount rates. For example, if he or she considered the profits from Quaker Oats’ new oatmeal filling equipment more risky, a 15 percent or 20 percent discount rate would value the project at $21,019 or $11,217 respectively.

项目的不平等生活。分析师确实有能力根据风险调整后的贴现率使用不同的贴现因子,对多年的现金进行估值。贵格会项目可以与许多其他现金流量为一年、十年或无限的项目进行比较。贴现因子可用于将所有现金流量贴现为现值以供比较。

Unequal Lives of Projects. An analyst does have the ability to value cash over many years by using different discount factors based on the risk-adjusted discount rate. The Quaker project could be compared with many other projects with cash flows of one year, ten years, or unlimited. The discount factor can be used to discount all cash flows to their present value for comparison.

项目现金流规模的规模差异。NPV 方法以不同金额贴现现金的能力产生了不同规模项目之间可比较的“净”现值。贴现因子还对未来任何时间的现金流量进行估值。

Scale Differences in the Size of Projects’ Cash Flows. The ability of the NPV method to discount cash at different amounts yields a “net” present value that is comparable among different-sized projects. The discount factor also values the cash flow at any time in the future.

既然资本要配给,那么MBA要选的话怎么办?NPV 告诉你最好的项目,但不是最好的项目盈利能力指数(PI) 可以提供帮助。PI 将未来现金流的 NPV 除以初始投资。例如,贵格会项目的指数为 1.317。

Since capital needs to be rationed, what is an MBA to do if he or she needs to choose? NPV tells you the best projects, but not the best group of projects. The profitability index (PI) can be of help. The PI divides the NPV of the future cash flows by the initial investment. For example, the Quaker project has an index of 1.317.

 

 

图片

在金钱不受限制的情况下,所有高于 1.00 的 PI 都会被接受。所有回报率高于风险调整后回报率的项目都具有吸引力。在资源有限的情况下,只选择具有最高 PI 的投资机会,以便该组投资可以为股东产生最高的 NPV。

In situations where money is unlimited, all PIs above 1.00 would be accepted. All projects with a return over the risk-adjusted rate are attractive. With constrained resources, only the investment opportunities with the highest PI are chosen so that the group of investments may yield the highest NPV for the shareholders.

在这些情况下,MBA 分析师需要使用 NPV 和 PI 作为指导来尝试最佳项目的不同组合,以便为整个团队获得尽可能高的 NPV。

In those cases, it is up to the MBA analyst to try different combinations of the best projects using NPVs and PIs as guides to get the highest possible NPV for the entire group.

 

 

企业融资决策

BUSINESS FINANCING DECISIONS

大量 MBA 毕生致力于为企业的资本需求寻找融资。公司融资的目标是在管理层愿意承受的风险水平下,以最低成本筹集足够的资金。风险在于企业将无法偿还债务而被迫破产。

A large number of MBAs devote their lives to finding the financing for the capital needs of businesses. The goal of corporate finance is to raise sufficient capital at the least cost for the level of risk that management is willing to live with. The risk is that a business will not be able to service its debt and will be forced into bankruptcy.

满足公司需求的融资方式有五种:

There are five basic ways of financing a company’s needs:

 

 

从供应商处获得信贷

Receive Credit from Suppliers

获得租赁融资

Obtain Lease Financing

获得银行贷款

Obtain Bank Loans

发行债券

Issue Bonds

发行股票

Issue Stock

 

 

供应商信用。供应商信贷是公司获得融资的最简单方式。公司购买商品和服务,并有 7 天到一年的时间来支付账单。当公司需要来自供应商的更多信贷时,财务经理会协商更长的信贷期限或更大的信贷额度。现金管理者还可以通过延迟付款来延长对供应商的应付款项。就 2011 年的 Borders Books 而言,供应商拒绝向他们提供额外的信贷。债权人和债权人的结合迫使公司破产。

Supplier Credit. Supplier credit is the easiest way that companies obtain financing. Companies buy goods and services and have anywhere from seven days to a year to pay their bills. When companies need more credit from suppliers, financial managers negotiate longer credit terms or larger credit lines. Cash managers can also stretch their payables to vendors by paying them late. In the case of Borders Books in 2011, vendors refused to extend them additional credit. The combination of creditors and debt holders forced the company into bankruptcy.

 

 

租赁融资。许多公司没有购买设备,而是选择租赁设备。这是一种融资方式。汽车、计算机和重型机械可以短期或长期融资。如果租赁期限较短,则称为经营租赁。在租赁结束时,该财产仍然有用并归还给财务公司。两年汽车租赁就是这种情况。

Lease Financing. Instead of buying equipment, many companies choose to lease equipment. This is a form of financing. Automobiles, computers, and heavy machinery can be financed for short periods or for longer periods. If the lease is for a shorter period, it is called an operating lease. At the end of the lease the property is still useful and is returned to the finance company. This is the case with two-year car leases.

长期租赁实质上是为购买提供资金的方式,而不是购买设备的临时服务。这种长期租赁称为资本租赁。租赁设备的使用寿命由承租人用完,在租赁结束时,设备通常以 1 美元的低价购买价格留在承租人手中。会计师有处理不同类型租赁安排的具体规则。对于资本租赁,租赁资产和​​融资负债记录在租赁公司的账簿上,就好像该公司完全购买了设备一样。

Long-term leases are, in substance, ways of financing a purchase, rather than buying the temporary services of a piece of equipment. Such long-term leases are called capital leases. The useful life of the leased equipment is used up by the lessee, and at the end of the lease the equipment usually stays with the lessee for a bargain purchase price like $1. The accountants have specific rules that deal with the different kinds of leasing arrangements. For capital leases, the leased assets and the financing liability are recorded on the leasing company’s books as though the company had bought the equipment outright.

 

 

银行融资。下一级融资涉及银行。银行可以长期或短期贷款。如果一家公司在银行有信贷额度或循环贷款,它会在企业需要和产生现金时提取并偿还以设定信贷限额。信用通常由公司的资产担保。如果一家企业遇到麻烦,它可能无法向银行付款并破产。

Bank Financing. The next level of financing involves banks. Banks can loan money for long or short periods of time. If a company has a credit line or revolver with a bank, it draws down and pays back up to set limits of credit as cash is needed and generated by the business. The credit is often secured by the assets of the firm. If a business runs into trouble, it may not be able to pay the bank and go into bankruptcy.

当银行或投资分析师以贷款或债券的形式提供信贷时,他们会考虑5C 的信贷

When banks or investment analysts extend credit in the form of a loan or bond, they consider the 5C’s of credit.

 

 

  • 现金流——现金流是否足以支付债务?
  • Cash flow—Are the cash flows enough to cover debt payments?
  • Collat ​​eral——是否有足够的抵押品来偿还贷款?
  • Collateral—Is there enough collateral to repay the loan?
  • 条件——总体经济条件是否有利于还款?
  • Conditions—Are general economic conditions favorable for repayment?
  • 路线——借款人的战略路线是否正确?
  • Course—Is the borrower headed on a good strategic course?
  • 品格——管理层是否合格并在道德上倾向于荣誉回报?
  • Character—Is management qualified and morally inclined to honor repayment?

债券发行。债券具有固定利率的合同支付和本金期限。如果公司所有者得不到服务,他们就会面临风险。1990 年,Southland Corporation(7-11 商店)拖欠债券支付,主要债券持有人 Ito-Yokado Corporation 用债券换取了公司的所有权,并将 Thompson 家族赶出了他们创立的公司。

Bond Issuance. Bonds have fixed-interest-rate contractual payments and a principal maturity. The risk to the firm’s owners comes if they cannot be serviced. In 1990 the Southland Corporation (7-Eleven stores) defaulted on its bond payment, and Ito-Yokado Corporation, the majority bondholder, exchanged its bonds for the ownership of the company and ousted the Thompson family from the company they had founded.

 

 

借款的税后成本。从供应商、银行家或债券持有人处借款的利息支付可以免税,而向股东支付的股息则不能。借款的税后成本是利息成本减去税收优惠。

The After-Tax Cost of Borrowing. Interest payments for borrowing from vendors, bankers, or bondholders are tax-deductible, while dividends to shareholders are not. The after-tax cost of borrowing is the interest cost less the tax benefit.

 

 

借款税后成本=借款利率×(1-税率

After-Tax Cost of Borrowing = Borrowing Rate × (1 Tax Rate)

前面示例中使用的 Caterpillar 债券继续为 2001 年到期的债券支付 8% 的利息。1999 年 Caterpillar 的公司税率预计为 34%。通过扣除纳税申报单上的利息费用,公司实际上获得了 34% 的借款折扣。税后税率为 5.28%:8% × (1 .34)。

The Caterpillar bond used in the earlier example continued to pay 8 percent interest on the issue maturing in 2001. In 1999 Caterpillar’s corporate tax rate was projected at 34 percent. By deducting the interest expense on the tax returns, the company received, in effect, a 34 percent discount on its borrowing. The after-tax rate was 5.28 percent: 8% × (1 .34).

正如您在会计章节中了解到的,股息不可免税,但利息支付可以。这种差异激励企业借入而不是发行股票和支付股息。这种现象被称为借贷税盾。在 1980 年代的杠杆收购狂潮中,税盾刺激了巨额借款,例如 Kohlberg Kravis Roberts 于 1989 年借入 264 亿美元购买 RJR Nabisco。那一年,政府为该企业提供了大约 8 亿美元的补贴(26.4 × 10% × 30%)。毫不奇怪,许多纳税人赞成取消或限制对利息支出的税收补贴。

As you learned in the accounting chapter, dividends are not tax-deductible, but interest payments are. That difference is an incentive for businesses to borrow rather than issue stock and pay dividends. This phenomenon is called a tax shield for borrowing. In the leveraged buyout binge of the 1980s, the tax shield was a spur to borrow huge amounts, such as the $26.4 billion Kohlberg Kravis Roberts borrowed to buy RJR Nabisco in 1989. That year the government subsidized this venture to the tune of approximately $800 million (26.4 × 10% × 30%). Not surprisingly, many taxpayers favor eliminating or restricting the tax subsidy for interest expenses.

 

 

库存问题。股票发行具有非合同、不可扣税的股息支付。股票代表企业及其所有资产的所有者权益。如果发行额外的股票来筹集现金,这是以牺牲当前股东的所有者权益为代价的。新股东与现有股东按每股平均分配其所有权权益。这就是为什么分析师说新股会稀释现有股东的利益。

Stock Issues. Stock issues have noncontractual, non-tax-deductible dividend payments. Stock represents an ownership interest in the business and in all of its assets. If additional shares of stock are issued to raise cash, this is done at the expense of the current shareholders’ ownership interest. New shareholders share their ownership interest equally on a per-share basis with the current shareholders. That is why analysts say that the new shares dilute the interest of existing shareholders.

有几个市场可以出售新发行的股票:纽约证券交易所 (NYSE) 和全国证券交易商协会自动报价系统 (NASDAQ)。当股票未在交易所上市但公开交易时,它是场外交易( OTC)。如果一家公司的股票不公开交易,则称该公司为私人持有。

Several markets are available to sell new stock issues: the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations System (NASDAQ). When a stock is not listed on an exchange, but is publicly traded, it is traded over the counter (OTC). If a company’s shares are not publicly traded, the company is said to be privately held.

称为投资银行家的财务顾问协助出售公司的新股。著名的投资银行家,如高盛集团和摩根士丹利,雇用了许多 MBA,从事这些首次公开募股(IPO),收取大量费用。这些I-bankers协助准备销售文件,称为招股说明书。招股说明书概述了发行人的历史和业务计划。1933 年证券法规范了本文件中要求的披露。

Financial advisers called investment bankers assist in the sale of new shares in companies. Noted investment bankers such as Goldman Sachs Group and Morgan Stanley, employing many MBAs, work on these initial public offerings (IPOs) for large fees. These I-bankers assist in the preparation of the selling documents, called the prospectus. The prospectus outlines the issuer’s history and business plans. The Securities Act of 1933 governs the disclosures required in this document.

 

 

融资组合的风险和回报。公司的融资决策围绕着债务和股权的最佳组合。这种组合称为公司的资本结构政策。当管理者对债转股组合做出重大改变时,他们称之为重组。

The Financing Mix’s Risk and Reward. The financing decisions in a corporation revolve around what is the best mix of debt and equity. That mix is called a company’s capital structure policy. When managers make large changes in the debt-to-equity mix, they call it restructuring.

从理论上讲,存在债务和股票的最佳组合;但是,没有神奇的 MBA 公式可以建立完美的比例。MBA 们可以看看过去行之有效的方法以及成功竞争者的组合。如果该行业是周期性的,那么为了度过低迷时期,较轻的债务负担是更可取的。优秀的财务经理不会在决定融资计划后忘记它。资本结构是动态的。应不断审查将余额从股权转移到债务再转回来的决定,以确保资本结构在任何给定时间都是合适的。

Theoretically, there is an optimal mix of debt and stock; however, there are no magic MBA formulas to establish that perfect ratio. MBAs can look to what worked in the past and to the mix of successful competitors. If the industry is cyclical, lighter debt loads are preferable in order to survive downturns. Good financial managers don’t decide on a financing plan and forget it. Capital structures are dynamic. Decisions to shift the balance from equity to debt and back again should be continually reviewed to make sure the capital structure is appropriate at any given time.

虽然没有方便的 MBA 公式可以一劳永逸地解决债务与股权的难题,但有一个有用的 MBA 首字母缩写词 FRICTO,其首字母代表一个有用的清单,用于解决资本结构问题。

Although there are no handy MBA formulas to solve once and for all the debt-versus-equity conundrum, there is a useful MBA acronym, FRICTO, whose initials stand for a useful checklist in sorting out capital structure issues.

灵活性。管理层需要多大的财务灵活性来应对不可预见的事件,例如新的竞争对手或诉讼?例如,道康宁从未计划过让公司陷入瘫痪的隆胸诉讼。

Flexibility. How much financial flexibility does management need to meet unforeseen events, such as new competitors or lawsuits? For example, Dow Corning never planned for the breast implant litigation that crippled the company.

风险。管理层可以承受多大的风险来应对可预见的事件,例如商业周期的低迷、罢工和材料短缺?众所周知,玩具公司会生产变冷的热玩具。精明的经理应该通过提供足够的财务灵活性来度过经济低迷期,从而为最终的销售下滑做好准备。因此,大多数玩具公司的债务权益比率都很低。

Risk. How much risk can management live with to meet foreseen events, such as downturns in the business cycle, strikes, and material shortages? Toy companies are known to produce hot toys that turn cold. Savvy managers should plan for the eventual sales drop-off by providing enough financial flexibility to survive the downturn. Accordingly, most toy companies have low debt-to-equity ratios.

收入。收益可以支持什么水平的利息或股息支付?财务经理需要预测运营结果以确定现金流量。使用这些预测以及经理对其预测的信心程度,他或她可以确定公司可以支付的付款水平。

Income. What level of interest or dividend payments can earnings support? Financial managers are required to forecast the results of operations to determine cash flows. Using those forecasts, and the degree of confidence a manager has in his or her projections, he or she can determine what level of payments the company can make.

控制。管理层希望与外部投资者分享多少股权?许多家族企业的所有者连让外人知道他们的收入都持谨慎态度,更不用说拥有投票权了。

Control. How much stock ownership does management want to share with outside investors? Many family business owners are leery of letting an outsider even know their income, let alone have a vote.

时机。债务市场是否提供有吸引力的利率?在管理层看来,市场是否高估了公司的股票?如果是这样,那么向公众出售股票是有意义的。相反,如果股票太便宜,那么最好从公众手中回购股票。在 1987 年和 2008 年的崩盘之后,许多公司借此机会回购了自己的股票。通过减少已发行股票的数量,它们作为资本结构的一部分的债务融资份额增加了。

Timing. Does the debt market offer attractive rates? Has the market overvalued the firm’s shares in the opinion of management? If so, then it makes sense to sell shares to the public. Conversely, if the stock is too cheap, then it is better to buy back shares from the public. After the crashes of 1987 and 2008, many firms took the opportunity to buy back their own shares. By reducing the number of shares outstanding, their share of debt financing grew as a portion of their capital structures.

1991 年,投资者无法购买足够的生物技术股票。他们甚至为有问题的初创企业支付高价。聪明的经理人利用了这个市场,并以高价向急切的公众出售股票。1992 年,生物技术不再受投资者青睐,轻松赚钱的日子结束了。同样的故事在 1995 年互联网公司上演,直到 2000 年崩溃。最近,房地产泡沫在 2006 年达到顶峰,并在 2007 年开始破灭。公司的资本结构应该是动态的,以利用市场条件。

In 1991 investors could not buy enough biotechnology stock. They paid high prices for even questionable start-ups. Smart managers tapped that market and sold shares to the eager public at high prices. In 1992, the days of easy money ended when biotech fell out of favor with investors. The same story repeated itself for Internet companies in 1995 until the meltdown in 2000. And again more recently, the real estate bubble peaked in 2006 and started to unravel in 2007. A company’s capital structure should be dynamic to take advantage of market conditions.

其他。许多其他因素会影响管理者选择的路径。有时,一家公司就是找不到银行借钱,不得不选择股权。在其他情况下,利率难以承受,迫使人们选择股权。资本结构决策的原因有很多。

Other. Many other factors affect the paths managers take. At times, a company just can’t find a bank to lend money, forcing an equity choice. In other circumstances interest rates are just unaffordable, forcing an equity choice. The reasons for capital structure decisions are many.

 

 

财务结构的关键是比率的讨论。在会计章节中,我解释了财务杠杆的概念。如果有利润,保持高债务水平和很少股本的公司会利用其收益为股东服务。用于分配收入的股票数量更少,每股收益更高。相反,当收益下降和利息支出吞噬所有利润时,高杠杆公司会抹去其全部股权价值。

Key to financial structure is the discussion of ratios. In the accounting chapter, I explained the concept of financial leverage. Companies that maintain high levels of debt and little equity leverage their earnings for shareholders if there are profits. There are simply fewer shares to divide income by, yielding higher earnings per share. Conversely, highly leveraged firms wipe out the entire value of their equity when earnings falter and interest payments eat up all the profits.

高杠杆公司的经理们必须决定,如果他们的现金流量预测没有实现,是否值得冒破产的风险来为股东提供高回报。Thompson 家族猜错了 Southland。也许如果汤普森一家使用了 FRICTO,他们可能会避免损失?

Managers of highly leveraged firms must decide whether it is worthwhile to risk bankruptcy if their cash flow projections don’t pan out in order to offer high returns to their shareholders. The Thompson family guessed wrong with Southland. Maybe if the Thompsons had used FRICTO, they might have avoided their losses?

已发行股票的市场价值也与公司资本结构的风险有关。如果投资者认为债务水平过高,那么他们将以更少的价格购买该公司的股票,因为偿还债务可能会危及收益。投资者还会对公司债务的市场价值进行贴现以换取风险。1990 年代初期,Black & Decker 和 RJR Nabisco 等杠杆公司就是这种情况。许多投资者对其资本结构的风险感到不安,并避免了这些高杠杆公司的债务和股权。

The market value of shares already issued is also related to the risk of a firm’s capital structure. If investors believe that debt levels are excessive, then they will pay less for the company’s shares, since the debt payments could put earnings in jeopardy. Investors will also discount the market value of a company’s debt for risk. That was the case in the early 1990s with leveraged companies such as Black & Decker, and RJR Nabisco. Many investors felt uncomfortable with the riskiness of their capital structures and avoided both the debt and equity of these highly leveraged companies.

来自 MBA 学术界的著名二人组Modigliani 和 Miller创建了一系列“命题”,讨论债务如何影响公司的价值。1958 年,Franco Modigliani 和 Merton Miller 开创性地研究了有无税收优惠的债务融资的影响。在一个完美的世界里,债务越多越好。公司的价值随着债务水平的增加而增加。然而,在现实世界中,如上一段所示,投资者确实在对债务和股权的估值中考虑了资不抵债的风险。

Modigliani and Miller, a famous duo from MBA academia, created a series of “propositions” that discussed how debt affects the values of firms. In 1958, Franco Modigliani and Merton Miller did their pioneering work on the effect of debt financing with and without a tax advantage. In a perfect world, the more debt the better. The value of the firm increases with higher debt levels. However, in the real world, as seen in the previous paragraph, investors do consider the risk of insolvency in their valuations of both debt and equity.

最优资本结构

资本成本

OPTIMAL CAPITAL STRUCTURE

The Cost of Capital

图片

最优资本结构

公司价值和加权平均资本成本

OPTIMAL CAPITAL STRUCTURE

The Value of the Firm and the Weighted Average Cost of Capital

图片

总而言之,在一定程度上,债务占总资本的百分比越高,公司的价值就越高。当破产风险变得显着时,价值就会下降。随着公司增加成本较低的避税债务以取代股权投资者所需的较高回报,融资成本会降低。但与股东一样,债权人在某个时候会变得紧张,并要求更高的回报率来补偿他们的风险。研究上面说明资本结构运作的两张图。

To summarize, the higher the percentage of debt to total capital, the higher a company’s value, to a point. At the point where the risk of bankruptcy becomes significant, values fall. The cost of financing decreases as a company adds lower-cost tax-shielded debt to displace the higher returns required by equity investors. But like stockholders, debt holders become nervous at a certain point and require higher rates of return to compensate them for their risk. Study the two graphs above that illustrate the workings of capital structure.

 

 

详细的资本结构决策示例。虽然选择最佳资本结构很困难,但财务经理会尝试将一些数字放在一起做出选择。如果您对细节感到好奇并想以“优等成绩”从为期十天的 MBA毕业,请继续阅读。如果没有,请跳到下一节,关于“股息政策”。制定资本结构决策涉及两个步骤:

A Detailed Capital Structure Decision Example. Although choosing the optimal capital structure is difficult, financial managers try to put together some numbers to make choices. If you are curious about the details and want to graduate from the Ten-Day MBA “cum laude,” read on. If not, just skip to the next section, about “Dividend Policy.” Making capital structure decisions involves a two-step process:

 

 

1. 计算 WACC。

1. Calculate the WACC.

2. 重视公司的自由现金流量,公司的价值。

2. Value the free cash flows of the company, the value of the firm.

第一步是通过使用以下公式并计算多个变量来计算整个公司的加权平均资本成本(WACC)。股权成本(Ke)是最困难的。

The first step is to calculate the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of the entire firm by using the following formula and calculating a number of variables. The cost of equity (Ke) is the most difficult.

 

 

图片

查看公式。请注意,WACC 使用债务和股权的市场价值。市场是当前债券持有人和股东对其投资估值的真实衡量标准。债务成本可以从公司的财务部门获得,也可以在财务报表的脚注中找到。要改变债务成本,需要大幅增加债务融资。然而,股权成本的计算要复杂一些。

Review the formula. Notice that the WACC uses the market values of debt and equity. The market is the true measure of how current bondholders and shareholders value their investments. The cost of debt can be obtained from the company’s treasury department or can be found in the footnotes of the financial statements. It takes large boosts in debt financing to change the cost of debt. However, the cost of equity is a bit more complex to figure out.

股权成本在很大程度上取决于公司的杠杆率。因为杠杆意味着风险,我们可以使用资本资产定价模型(CAPM) 中的 beta。CAPM 有助于计算不同杠杆情景下所需的股本回报率。

The cost of equity heavily depends on the leverage of the firm. Because leverage means risk, we can use beta from the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). The CAPM helps calculate the required return on equity under different leverage scenarios.

 

 

Ke = Rf + (Km Rf) × Beta

Ke = Rf + (Km Rf) × Beta

(Km Rf) =风险溢价

(Km Rf) = Risk Premium

风险度量 beta 根据杠杆风险而变化。金融 MBA 们采用当前的杠杆贝塔,将其解除杠杆以达到无债务、无杠杆状态(步骤 A),然后将其重新杠杆化为任何假设的资本结构(步骤 B)。

The risk measure, beta, changes according to the risk of leverage. Financial MBAs take the current levered beta and unlever it to a no-debt, unlevered state (Step A), then lever it back up to any hypothetical capital structure (Step B).

 

 

图片

举例说明:Leverco, Inc. 的财务主管想要决定是选择 0%、25% 还是 50% 的债务资本结构。为此,他在以下数字列中列出了事实和计算。结论是 Leverco 应该有 50% 的债务/50% 的股权资本结构。这就是最大化公司价值同时最小化 WACC 的结构。

To illustrate: The treasurer of Leverco, Inc., wants to decide whether to choose a 0 percent, 25 percent, or 50 percent debt capital structure. To do so, he has laid out the facts and calculations in the following columns of numbers. The conclusion is the Leverco should have a 50 percent debt / 50 percent equity capital structure. That’s the structure that maximizes the value of the firm while minimizing the WACC.

图片

改编自“债务政策和价值简介”,案例 UVA-F-811。版权所有 © 1989 达顿商学院基金会,弗吉尼亚州夏洛茨维尔。

Adapted from “An Introduction to Debt Policy and Value,” Case UVA-F-811. Copyright © 1989 by the Darden Graduate Business School Foundation, Charlottesville, Virginia.

 

 

在 Leverco 的案例中展示的相同计算被用来推导出“最优资本结构”的两个理论图。首先是加权平均资本成本的计算。第二张图使用显示的最低 WACC,描述了公司的最大值。如果您愿意,可以尝试重新计算标有星号 (*) 的计算。这些与世界各地的 MBA 用于资本结构决策的计算相同。

The same calculations demonstrated in Leverco’s case were used to derive the two theoretical graphs of the “Optimal Capital Structure.” The first is the calculation of the weighted average cost of capital. The second graph, using the lowest WACC shown, describes the maximum value of the firm. If you wish, you can try to recompute the calculations that are noted with an asterisk (*). These are the same computations that MBAs throughout the world use for capital structure decisions.

 

 

股息政策。财务经理必须决定应将公司利润的多少作为股息支付,并且必须确定每股股息的规模。这称为股息政策。

Dividend Policy. Financial managers must decide how much of a firm’s profits should be paid out as dividends and must determine the size of dividends per share. This is called dividend policy.

为了指导他们的政策,财务经理至少使用两种衡量标准——股息收益率股息支付率。市场在确定股息收益率方面起着重要作用,因为它是通过将年度股息支付除以当前股价得出的。股息也可以按收益的一定百分比支付,称为股息支付率。

To guide them in their policies, financial managers use at least two measures—dividend yields and dividend payout ratios. The market plays a big role in determining the dividend yield since it is derived by dividing the annual dividend payment by the current share price. Dividends may also be paid out as a certain percentage of earnings, called the dividend payout ratio.

图片

股息极其重要,因为它们清楚地显示了公司的现金产生能力。许多分析师根据股息现金流对公司进行估值。您在本章前面的股利增长模型中看到了这种估值方法。

Dividends are extremely important because they show clearly the cash-generating ability of the firm. Many analysts value companies based on the dividend cash flows. You saw that valuation method with the Dividend Growth Model earlier in this chapter.

投资者喜欢稳定、稳步增长的股息,讨厌任何削减。因此,经理们不惜一切代价试图避免股息支付的波动。如果 MBA 错误地估计了公司维持股息的能力,他或她的工作将处于真正的危险之中。

Investors love stable, steadily growing dividends and hate any cuts. Therefore, managers try to avoid swings in dividend payouts at all costs. If an MBA miscalculates the ability of the company to maintain a dividend his or her job will be in real jeopardy.

在制定可能直接影响其职业生涯的政策时,精明的 MBA 应该仔细考虑五个问题。

There are five questions that astute MBAs ought to mull over as they formulate a policy that may directly affect their careers.

与投资者投资于其他地方相比,公司能否通过将收益投资回公司来做得更好?如果一家公司正在成长并且有很多令人兴奋的投资机会,那么股息应该很少,收益应该用于内部。2004 年,沃尔玛支付了每股 0.52 美元的股息,每股收益为 2.15 美元,派息率为 24%,但投资者很高兴,因为该公司正忙于投资许多新的盈利商店。它的股息收益率是 54 美元股价的 1%。就微软而言,投资者对微软积累的数十亿美元现金感到不安,而随着销售增长放缓,这些现金无法有效部署。微软在 2003 年以每股 0.16 美元的首次年度股息作为回应。2004 年,微软将年度股息翻了一番,达到每股 0.32 美元,并宣布了每股 3 美元或总额 320 亿美元的特别一次性股息,这是历史上最大的公司股息分配。

Can the company do a better job by investing its earnings back into the firm than investors could by investing elsewhere? If a company is growing and has many exciting investment opportunities, dividends should be small and earnings should be used internally. In 2004, Wal-Mart paid a $.52 dividend per share against $2.15 in earnings, a 24 percent payout ratio, but investors were happy because the company was busy investing in many new and profitable stores. Its dividend yield was 1 percent of the $54 stock price. In the case of Microsoft, investors were upset that Microsoft was amassing billions in cash that it couldn’t effectively deploy as its sales growth slowed. Microsoft responded in 2003 with its first annual dividend of $.16 per share. In 2004, Microsoft doubled the annual dividend to $.32 per share and declared a special onetime dividend of $3 a share or $32 billion total, the largest corporate dividend distribution in history.

谁是你的股东?寡妇和孤儿的收入是否依赖于您的红利?公用事业股是这样,但初创互联网公司不是这样。

Who is your stockholder? Do widows and orphans depend on your dividends for their incomes? This is the case with utility stocks, but not with start-up Internet companies.

股东对股息支付的任何变化会有何反应?股息支付的变化对投资者来说是一个强有力的信号。投资者对任何削减股息的反应都非常强烈,因为这表明公司陷入困境。增加并不是什么大问题。通常情况下,股息的增加是意料之中的,而且很少大张旗鼓地迎接。股息的增加表明管理层有信心企业的长期收益足以维持增加的支出。

What will stockholders’ reaction be to any changes in dividend payments? Changes in dividend payments are a powerful signal to investors. Investors react violently to any cuts in dividends, since they signal that the company is in trouble. Increases are not such a big deal. More often than not, dividend increases are expected and greeted with little fanfare. Increases in dividends show management’s confidence that the business’s earnings are strong enough over the long term to sustain an increased payout.

公司的财务杠杆程度如何?为确保股息不会中断,公司应确保能够轻松支付投资者期望和要求的股息。

What is the degree of financial leverage of the company? To ensure that dividends will not be interrupted, companies should see to it that they can comfortably pay the dividends investors expect and demand.

公司的增长战略是什么?成长型公司通常支付很少甚至不支付股息。他们需要现金来资助自己的成长。例如,生物技术公司保留所有现金以支持长期研究需求。

What is the growth strategy of the company? Growth companies usually pay little to no dividends. They need cash to finance their own growth. Biotechnology companies, for example, retain all their cash to support long-term research needs.

如果一家公司资金紧张,但仍想让投资者满意,它可以支付股票股息。这是公司以公司股票而非现金支付的股息。此类股息通常占所持股份的 2% 至 5%。例如,如果您拥有一百股,您将获得两到五股新股。投资者最终拥有更多的股份,但由于所有股东都获得相同百分比的股息,因此他们对公司的所有权百分比保持不变。

If a company is strapped for cash and yet still wants to make investors happy, it can pay a stock dividend. This is a dividend that the company pays in shares of the company, not cash. Such dividends usually range from 2 to 5 percent of shares owned. For example, if you owned one hundred shares, you would receive two to five new shares. Investors end up with a greater number of shares, but since all shareholders receive the same percentage share dividend, their percentage ownership of the firm remains the same.

如果股票价格高,公司也可以进行股票分割,每股拥有两股或三股。它使股票更便宜,让投资者高兴,但持股比例保持不变。

If a stock price is high, the company can also have a stock split, giving two or three shares for every share owned. It makes the stock more affordable and makes investors happy, but the percentage ownership remains the same.

 

 

并购

MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS

并购 (M&A) 是最令人兴奋的金融领域之一。帮助公司筹集资金的投资银行家也帮助公司花钱。许多高薪 MBA 都在这个领域工作。并购的“战略”原因和方法包含在战略章节中。本章将涵盖并购的合法财务原因。

Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) is one of the most exciting areas of finance. The same investment bankers who help companies raise money also help companies spend it. Many highly paid MBAs work in this field. “Strategic” reasons and methods for M&A are covered in the strategy chapter. This chapter will cover the legitimate financial reasons for mergers and acquisitions.

 

 

多元化公司

Diversify the Company

许多公司试图通过拥有其他业务来降低风险。菲利普莫里斯将自己更名为奥驰亚,并收购了卡夫、通用食品和米勒啤酒,因为它想要实现多元化。烟草使用量在下降,诉讼迫在眉睫,限制广告的新法规即将出台。此后,奥驰亚分拆了这些公司并收购了 UST 以专注于烟草业务。

Many companies attempt to lower risk by owning other businesses. Philip Morris renamed itself Altria and bought Kraft, General Foods, and Miller Brewing because it wanted to diversify. Tobacco usage was declining, lawsuits loomed, and new regulation limiting advertising was pending. Altria has since spun off those companies and bought UST to concentrate solely on tobacco.

 

 

提高销售和收入

Improve Sales and Earnings

肥皂、洗涤剂和纸制品领域的领导者宝洁公司决定通过收购威娜、Richardson-Vicks、Noxell 和吉列来扩大销售额和收益。他们的品牌管理专业知识为他们提升这些收购的价值提供了很好的帮助。

Procter & Gamble, the leader in soaps, detergents, and paper products, decided to expand sales and earnings by buying Wella, Richardson-Vicks, Noxell, and Gillette. Their brand-management expertise served them well in enhancing the values of these acquisitions.

 

 

购买被低估的公司

Purchase an Undervalued Company

根据市场情况,公司有时可以低价收购公司。如果投资者没有认识到账面上有价值资产的潜力,公司也可能是一个便宜货。泰德·特纳 (Ted Turner) 于 1986 年收购了米高梅/联美 (United Artists),因为米高梅拥有大量经典电影库,特纳认为这些电影库的价值被低估且未得到充分利用。房地产、木材、专利、版权和其他价值可能会被市场忽视或误判。

Based on market conditions, corporations can sometimes buy companies at a bargain. Companies may also be a bargain if investors do not recognize the potential of valuable assets on the books. Ted Turner bought MGM/United Artists in 1986 because MGM had an extensive movie library of classics that Turner felt was undervalued and not fully exploited. Real estate, timber, patents, copyrights, and other value could be overlooked or misjudged by the market.

 

 

降低运营成本

Lower Operating Costs

当公司合并时,可以节省很多成本。随着公司的吸收,被收购公司的部分管理费用可以削减。在制造业合并中,工厂可以更有效地生产更大数量的产品。

When companies merge, many cost savings are possible. With the absorption of a company, some of the acquired company’s corporate overhead expenses can be cut. In manufacturing mergers, factories can produce larger quantities more efficiently.

在 1990 年代,许多公司成立,通过“整合”许多夫妻店来整合分散的行业,以期提高效率。办公用品业务、兽医业务和汽车经销商都卷入其中。

In the 1990s, many companies were formed to consolidate fragmented industries by “rolling up” many mom-and-pop outfits, in hopes of achieving efficiencies. Office supply businesses, veterinary practices, and car dealerships were rolled up.

 

 

收购类型

TYPES OF ACQUISITIONS

如果两家公司决定联手成为一家公司,这称为合并。当 Sperry 和 Burroughs 于 1986 年合并时,合并后的实体被命名为 Unisys。

If two companies decide to join forces to become one company, this is called a merger. When Sperry and Burroughs merged in 1986, the merged entity was named Unisys.

如果一家公司收购另一家公司,则称为收购。如果双方同意收购,则称为友好收购;如果不是,则称为恶意收购。

If one company buys another company, it is called an acquisition. If both parties agree to the purchase, it is called a friendly acquisition; if not, it is called a hostile takeover.

有吸引力的收购对象的小公司通常同意在友好收购中被收购。1989 年,Procter & Gamble 友好地收购了 Cover Girl 和 Clarion 化妆品的制造商 Noxell。双方都看到了两家营销公司强强联手的优势。2005 年,宝洁在同样友好的情况下收购了更大的吉列。

Smaller companies that are attractive takeover candidates often agree to be purchased in friendly takeovers. In 1989 Procter & Gamble made a friendly purchase of Noxell, the maker of Cover Girl and Clarion cosmetics. Both saw the advantages of the two marketing companies joining forces. In 2005, P&G bought the much larger Gillette under the same friendly circumstances.

在其他情况下,购买可能会令人讨厌。1984 年,T. Boone Pickens 试图在一次不成功的敌意收购中收购 Phillips Petroleum。Phillips 的管理层非常反对这个想法,以至于在 1985 年它借了 45 亿美元来回购其 47% 的普通股。这阻碍了皮肯斯的努力,因为它借用了他计划抵押的相同资产。

In other cases, the purchase can be nasty. In 1984, T. Boone Pickens tried to buy Phillips Petroleum in an unsuccessful hostile takeover. The management of Phillips was so opposed to the idea that in 1985 it borrowed $4.5 billion to buy back 47 percent of its common stock. This thwarted Pickens’s efforts because it borrowed against the same assets that he was planning to mortgage.

我在本章中多次提到的第四种收购类型是杠杆收购(LBO)。在 80 年代,许多贷款人愿意借钱给收购艺人。就像抵押贷款公司向购房者提供贷款,首付仅为 5% 一样,银行、保险公司和债券投资者向这些金融家借钱购买公司。从杠杆收购中脱颖而出的公司背负着高额债务,必须支付利息和本金。

The fourth type of acquisition that I have mentioned several times already in this chapter is the leveraged buyout (LBO). In the 1980s, many lenders were willing to loan money to takeover artists. In the same way that a mortgage company makes a loan to a home buyer for a down payment of only 5 percent, banks, insurance companies, and bond investors lent money to these financiers to buy companies. The company that emerges from a leveraged buyout carries a high level of debt on which it must pay interest and principal.

 

 

估值过程

THE VALUATION PROCESS

要进行并购,您必须评估目标的价值。现金流是主要考虑因素。企业的现金流量是经营、投资和筹资活动(与会计师的现金流量表描述的活动相同)的结果。在会计章节中,我使用了微型 Bob 市场的例子。通过在数字中添加几个零,它可以是 Safeway 或 Kroger。因为您已经熟悉 Bob 的市场,所以本节将继续该示例。

To engage in M&A, you must assess the value of the targets. Cash flow is the main consideration. A business’s cash flows are the result of operations, investing, and financing activities (the same activities that the accountant’s statement of cash flows describes). In the accounting chapter, I used the example of tiny Bob’s Market. By adding a few zeros to the numbers, it could be Safeway or Kroger. Because you are already familiar with Bob’s Market, this section will continue with that example.

公司的总价值称为企业价值(EV)。它是其预计现金流量的现值。公司的EV等于股东拥有的股权价值(已发行股份总数×当前市场价格),加上债权人持有的有息债务,减去公司的盈余现金和持有的超出公司经营需要的有价投资。相反,权益将等于公司的 EV 减去债务加上剩余现金和有价投资。

The total value of a company is called its enterprise value (EV). It is the present value of its projected cash flows. A company’s EV is equal to its equity value (total outstanding shares × current market price) owned by shareholders, plus interest-bearing debt held by debt holders, less its surplus cash and marketable investments held beyond the firm’s operating needs. Conversely, the equity would be equal to the company’s EV less its debt plus its surplus cash and marketable investments.

将企业价值视为理论上的总收购价格。在收购的情况下,收购方必须支付股东的股权并承担公司的债务。股票的市场价值可能与分析师根据现金流量预测计算出的价值不同,但这就是投资者寻找机会的方式。

Think of the enterprise value as the theoretical total takeover price. In the event of a buyout, an acquirer would have to pay shareholders for their equity and take on the company’s debt. The market value of the equity may be different from an analyst’s calculation of value based on cash flows projections, but that is how investors find opportunities.

计算和评估企业现金流量涉及五个步骤:

Five steps are involved in calculating and evaluating a business’s cash flows:

 

 

1. 分析经营活动。

1. Analyze operating activities.

预测损益表;销售额、销售成本、销售费用、一般费用和管理费用。

Forecast the income statement; sales, cost of goods sold, selling, general, and administration expenses.

2. 分析更换和购买新的不动产、厂房和设备所需的投资。

2. Analyze the investments necessary to replace and to buy new property, plant, and equipment.

3. 分析公司的资本需求。

3. Analyze the capital requirements of the firm.

确定企业营运资金要求。

Determine the corporate working capital requirements.

4. 预测公司的年度经营现金流量和终值。

4. Project the annual operating cash flows and terminal value of the firm.

5. 计算这些现金流的 NPV 以计算公司价值。

5. Calculate the NPV of those cash flows to calculate the firm’s value.

MBA 使用多种技术或方法对公司进行估值。营销人员在制定营销策略时表现出的所有天赋,金融专家在并购估值中大显身手。下表是金融界许多人使用的一种流行的简化方法。

MBAs use many techniques or approaches to value firms. With all the flair a marketer displays in putting together a marketing strategy, finance jocks show their stuff in M&A valuations. The table below is one popular simplified method used by many in the financial community.

 

 

1. 分析经营活动和公司的资本支出需求。

1. Analyze operating activities and the firm’s capital spending requirements.

首先是预测销售额并计算销售毛利率和其他运营费用。但金融分析师必须做的不仅仅是看数字。他们还必须审查行业、竞争、原材料市场以及管理层经营和发展业务的计划。所有这些因素都会影响企业的现金流。

The first thing is to forecast sales and calculate the gross margins on sales and other operating expenses. But financial analysts must do more than just look at numbers. They must also review the industry, the competition, the markets for raw materials, and management’s plans to run and grow the business. All these factors will affect the cash flow of business.

与鲍勃、他的会计师和他的助理经理的讨论表明,业务很健康,他们预计销售额在四年内每年增长 10%,然后稳定下来。他们有信心保持 25% 的毛利率或 75% 的可变销售成本。他们还认为,他们的 SG&A 费用将保持稳定变化,占销售额的 24%。设备折旧不需要现金,可以加回去,但 Bob 相信他每年都会通过将 3,000 美元再投资于新的商店固定装置来升级商店。有了这些信息,现金流量预测将如下所示。

Discussions with Bob, his accountant, and his assistant manager revealed that the business is healthy and they expect sales to grow by 10 percent a year over a four-year period and then stabilize. They are confident that they will maintain a gross margin of 25 percent or a variable 75 percent cost of sales. They also believe that their SG&A expenses will remain a steady variable 24 percent of sales. The depreciation for equipment, which does not cost cash, can be added back, but Bob believes that he will be upgrading the store each year by reinvesting the $3,000 in new store fixtures. With that information, the cash flow forecast would look as shown below.

BOB 的市场,截至 2012 年 12 月 31 日止年度的损益表

(以千计)

BOB’S MARKET, INCOME STATEMENT FOR THE YEAR ENDING DECEMBER 31, 2012

(IN THOUSANDS)

图片

2. 分析更换和购买新的不动产、厂房和设备所需的投资。

2. Analyze the investments necessary to replace and to buy new property, plant, and equipment.

不要害羞。咨询工程师、采购部门和会计师以获得成本和使用寿命的良好估计。

Don’t be shy. Consult with the engineers, purchasing department, and the accountants to get a good estimate of costs and useful lives.

 

 

3. 确定企业的营运资金需求。

3. Determine the working capital needs of the business.

企业需要现金来运营。营运资金水平通常是销售量的函数。产生的销售额越多,在收银机找零和购买存货所需的现金就越大。随着市场对他们的购买量的增长,供应商越来越多地提供信贷,这种需求在一定程度上得到了平衡。这是该过程的重要部分;不考虑营运资金需求可能会导致现金紧缩。

Businesses need cash to operate. The level of working capital is most often a function of the volume of sales. The more sales that are generated, the greater the cash needs for making change at the cash registers and purchasing inventory. This need is balanced somewhat by the credit that vendors increasingly extend as the market’s purchases from them grow in volume. This is an important part of the process; failing to consider the working capital needs could result in a cash squeeze.

现金流量预测(以千计)

CASH FLOW PROJECTIONS (IN THOUSANDS)

图片

当我们回顾 Bob's Market 的资产负债表时,我们看到 Bob 的流动资产为 115,000 美元,流动负债为 87,000 美元。这是 28,000 美元 (115 87) 的净营运资本头寸。

When we look back at the balance sheet of Bob’s Market, we see that Bob had $115,000 in current assets and $87,000 in current liabilities. That is a net working capital position of $28,000 (115 87).

Bob 说每周他每销售一美元就需要 28 美分($28,000/[年销售额 $5,200,000/每年 52 周])。这包括他的库存现金需求和由他的杂货店供应商提供的额外融资所抵消的注册资金。加上估值计算,现金流量预测如下:

Bob says that every week he needs 28 cents for every dollar of sales ($28,000/[$5,200,000 annual sales/52 weeks per year]). That covers his cash needs for inventory and register money offset by the additional financing extended by his grocery vendors. Added to the valuation calculation, the cash flow projection would look as follows:

现金流量预测(以千计)

CASH FLOW PROJECTION (IN THOUSANDS)

图片

 

 

4. 确定公司的终值。

4. Determine the terminal value of the firm.

一个企业被认为是一个持续经营的企业,它将在未来无限期地继续经营。通过评估某个时间点的现金流量,您忽略了持续价值。这就是为什么在财务预测结束时,必须计算终值并将其添加到现金流估值中。

A business is presumed to be a going concern that will continue to operate indefinitely into the future. By valuing the cash flow to a certain point in time, you are ignoring ongoing value. That is why at the end of the financial projection, a terminal value must be calculated and added to the cash flow valuation.

在 Bob's Market,第四年的现金流量为 50,000 美元。如果预测该现金年复一年不变,您可以使用与永续年金估值相同的估值方法。

At Bob’s Market the fourth year’s cash flow was $50,000. If that cash is forecasted to be the same year after year, you could use the same valuation method that is used to value a perpetuity.

图片

在这种情况下使用的适当贴现因子是加权平均资本成本 (WACC)。我们使用 WACC 是因为公司的自由现金流可用于支付债务利息向股东支付股息。因此,适当的贴现因子考虑了公司的整个资本结构、债务股权。

The proper discount factor to use in this case is the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). We use WACC because the free cash flow of the company is available to pay interest on debt and to pay dividends to equity holders. Therefore the proper discount factor takes into account the firm’s entire capital structure, its debt and equity.

Bob's Market 的资本结构是保守的。它的资产负债表仅列出了 10,000 美元的债务和 45,000 美元的股权。它的债务利率为 10%。股权成本可以使用资本资产定价模型来计算。使用 8% 的历史长期无风险国债利率、7.4% 的风险溢价和代表低负债杂货店较低风险的 0.85 beta,股本成本为 14.3%。

Bob’s Market’s capital structure is conservative. Its balance sheet lists only $10,000 of debt and $45,000 of equity. Its debt carries an interest rate of 10 percent. The cost of equity can be calculated using the Capital Asset Pricing Model. Using a historical long-term risk-free Treasury rate of 8 percent, the risk premium of 7.4 percent, and a .85 beta representing the lower risk of a low-debt grocery store, the cost of equity is 14.3 percent.

 

 

Ke = Rf + (Km Rf) 贝塔

Ke = Rf + (Km Rf) Beta

14.3% = 8% + (7.4%) .85

14.3% = 8% + (7.4%) .85

将股权成本代入 WACC 方程式,公司的加权平均资本成本为 13%。

Plugging the cost of equity into the WACC equation, the firm’s weighted average cost of capital is 13 percent.

 

 

图片

将所有这些放在一起进行估值,终值现金流量计算将是:

Putting it all together in a valuation, the terminal value cash flow calculation would be:

 

 

图片

 

 

5. 计算这些现金流的 NPV 以计算公司价值。

5. Calculate the NPV of those cash flows to calculate the firm’s value.

将终值加上前三年预计现金流量的现值,公司的整体价值可以计算如下:

Add the terminal value to the present value of the first three years’ projected cash flows, and the entire value of the firm can be calculated as follows:

自由现金流的现值净值(以千计)

NET PRESENT VALUATION OF FREE CASH FLOWS (IN THOUSANDS)

图片

 

 

而已!该杂货店的企业价值为 332,000 美元。商店持有的 5,000 美元现金不是多余现金;Bob 需要它在寄存器中并进行运营。(现金是 Bob 资产负债表上的一项资产,在会计章节中显示。)要找到 Bob 的股权价值,用 332,000 美元的企业价值减去 10,000 美元的未偿银行债务(也在他的资产负债表上),等于 322,000 美元。这就是收购艺术家期望为他的商店支付给 Bob 并承担其债务的金额。这就是 MBA 评估大小公司的方式。是的,这有点乏味,但在数学上并不难计算。通过让并购成为一个神秘的过程,MBA 可以为其并购服务收取更多费用。现在你有内幕了。

That’s it! The grocery store’s enterprise value is $332,000. The $5,000 in cash held by the store is not surplus cash; Bob needs it in the registers and to operate. (Cash is an asset on Bob’s balance sheet shown in the accounting chapter.) To find Bob’s equity value, take the enterprise value of $332,000 less the outstanding bank debt of $10,000 (also on his balance sheet), and that equals $322,000. That is what a takeover artist would expect to pay Bob for his store and assume its debt. That is how MBAs value companies large and small. Yes, it’s a bit tedious, but mathematically not difficult to calculate. By keeping M&A a mysterious process, MBAs can charge more for their M&A services. Now you have the inside story.

 

 

MBAS 评估中包含的其他内容

ADDITIONAL THINGS MBAS INCLUDE IN THEIR VALUATIONS

Bob's Market 的估值假设杂货店将按照 Bob 所说的那样运营。MBA 有时会有不同的想法。正在分析潜在收购的公司就像肉店里的肉一样——根据需要切割、切片和碾碎。分析师从各个角度调查公司。MBA 会寻找任何改善运营、降低开支和增加现金流的机会。他们考虑出售资产。该过程按其收购类型进行着色:合并、友好、敌对或杠杆收购。如果公司被新的管理层接管,那么许多变化都是可能的。如果收购时负债累累,新的所有者将希望增加现金流并尽快出售资产以偿还收购公司所产生的债务。

The valuation of Bob’s Market assumes that the grocery store will be operated as Bob said it would. MBAs sometimes have different ideas. Companies being analyzed for potential acquisition are just like meat in a butcher shop—cut, sliced, and ground up as necessary. Analysts investigate the company from all angles. MBAs look at any opportunity to improve operations, lower expenses, and increase cash flow. They consider the sale of assets. The process is colored by the type of acquisition it is: merger, friendly, hostile, or leveraged. If the company is being taken over by a new management, then many changes are possible and likely. If the purchase is made with a great deal of debt, the new owners will want to increase cash flow and sell assets as soon as possible to pay off the debt incurred in purchasing the company. A sampling of things new owners will look for in these situations are:

  • 工资优惠,打破工会
  • Wage Concessions, Break Labor Unions
  • 裁员
  • Layoffs
  • 降低生产成本
  • Lower Production Costs
  • 减少营运资金需求
  • Reduce Working Capital Needs

降低库存

Lower Inventory

较低的应收账款

Lower Receivables

增加应付款

Increase Payables

  • 获得员工养老金
  • Gain Access to Employees’ Pension Money
  • 出售房地产
  • Sell Real Estate
  • 出售专利和权利
  • Sell Patents and Rights
  • 销售部门、子公司、产品线
  • Sell Divisions, Subsidiaries, Product Lines
  • 为高管出售不必要的奢侈品(飞机、公司公寓)
  • Sell Unnecessary Luxuries for Executives (jets, company apartments)

图片

“好消息!

这不是接管,只是有人带着公司兜风。”

“GOOD NEWS!

IT’S NOT A TAKEOVER, MERELY SOMEONE TAKING THE COMPANY FOR A JOYRIDE.”

 

 

MBA Touch:问“如果……会怎样?” 可以研究概述的所有步骤并将其插入数学公式和电子表格中。分析师必须做出许多有根据的猜测。MBA 可以对流程做出的真正贡献不仅是对特定公司信息的准确评估,而且是对可能影响现金流量预测的外部因素的经验丰富的评估。产品成本的变化将如何影响预测的现金流量?行业竞争环境如何影响销售?如果?

The MBA Touch: Asking “What If?” All the steps outlined can be investigated and plugged into mathematical formulas and spreadsheets. Analysts have to make many informed guesses. The real contribution an MBA can make to the process is not only an accurate evaluation of specific company information, but an experienced evaluation of the external factors that may affect the cash flows forecasted. How would a change in product costs affect the forecasted cash flows? How could the competitive environment in the industry affect sales? What if?

MBA 对现金流量的适当预测包括关键假设的变化或“敏感性”,以便决策者可以评估他们预测的现金流量中固有的风险。电子表格的使用势在必行,其“数据表”功能是 MBA 进行变异分析的工具。如果您不熟悉它,请认为自己是计算机文盲。

A proper MBA forecast of cash flows includes variations or “sensitivities” of key assumptions, so that decision makers can assess the risk inherent in the cash flows they are forecasting. The use of a spreadsheet is imperative and its “Data-Table” function is the MBA tool to perform variation analysis. If you’re not familiar with it, consider yourself computer illiterate.

例如,在航空业,燃油价格、票价和客座率会导致现金流量波动。这三个项目等关键假设的变化会极大地改变估值和现金流量。在杠杆收购中,所有者指望预期的现金流来支付他们所背负的债务的利息。如果他们发现现金短缺,公司就会破产。

In the airline industry, for instance, fuel prices, fares, and passenger load factors can produce swings in cash flows. Variations in key assumptions such as these three items dramatically change valuations and cash flows. In a leveraged buyout, owners are counting on projected cash flows to pay interest on the debt they carry. If they are caught short of cash, companies go into bankruptcy.

 

 

出价

MAKING A BID

MBA 的计算和预测很好,但它们经常被忽略。有时,狩猎的快感战胜了买家,他们在艺术品拍卖的热潮中表现得像竞标者。投标人使用更简单的经验法则、收益倍数、EBITDA 倍数或销售额倍数,而不是净现值现金流估值。在杠杆收购中,出价往往简单地代表了收购方可以获得的最大融资额,或者目标公司的现金流可以承担的最大债务。因人而异,并购的动机和方法也各不相同。

MBA calculations and forecasts are fine and dandy, but they are often ignored. Sometimes the thrill of the hunt overcomes buyers, and they act like bidders in the heat of an art auction. Instead of a net-present-value cash-flow valuation, bidders use simpler rule-of-thumb methods, a multiple of earnings, multiple of EBITDA, or multiple of sales. In leveraged buyouts, the bid often simply represents the maximum amount of financing the acquisitor can obtain, or the maximum debt the targeted company’s cash flow can carry. People differ, and accordingly, they have different motivations and methods in their M&A quests.

 

 

财务概览

FINANCIAL OVERVIEW

简单地说,金融界有两个主要功能:买卖。企业需要资金;因此,他们要么出售其公司的股权(股票),要么出售固定利息支付的证券(债券)。投资界对这些证券进行估价并进行买卖。

Simply stated, there are two main functions in the financial world: buying and selling. Businesses require funding; therefore, they either sell equity shares in their companies (stocks), or fixed-interest-payments securities (bonds). The investment community values these securities and buys and sells them.

财务分析的理论基础是风险/回报等式,其中较高的风险与较高的回报相关联。回报是通过确定现金流量的数量和时间来计算的。

The theoretical basis for financial analysis is the risk/reward equation, in which higher risks are associated with higher returns. Returns are calculated by determining the amount and the timing of cash flows.

财务管理的指导原则是通过以尽可能低的成本为现金需求融资,在管理层可以承受的风险水平下,使公司价值最大化。

The guiding principle of financial management is to maximize the firm’s value by financing cash needs at the least cost possible, at a level of risk that management can live with.

 

 

关键财务要点

KEY FINANCE TAKEAWAYS

现值——未来收到的一美元的价值低于今天手头的一美元。金钱是有时间价值的。

Present Value—The value of a dollar received in the future is less than a dollar on hand today. There is a time value of money.

Beta——衡量证券或证券投资组合对一般市场变动的反应的固有风险

Beta—A measure of risk inherent in a security or a portfolio of securities as it reacts to general market movements

有效边界——描述给定风险水平下最高投资组合回报的图表

The Efficient Frontier—The graph depicting the highest portfolio returns for a given risk level

资本资产定价模型——Ke = Rf + (Km Rf) Beta

The Capital Asset Pricing Model—Ke = Rf + (Km Rf) Beta

久期——债券偿还投资者一半投资所需的时间

Duration—The time it takes for a bond to pay back half of an investor’s investment

债券价值波动——如果市场利率上升,债券价值就会下降,反之亦然。

Bond Value Fluctuations—If market interest rates go up, bond values go down, and vice versa.

股息增长模型——价值= D/(K g)

The Dividend Growth Model—Value = D/(K g)

看涨期权——在有限时间内以固定价格购买资产的权利

Call Option—The right to purchase an asset at a fixed price for a limited amount of time

看跌期权——在有限时间内以固定价格出售资产的权利

Put Option—The right to sell an asset at a fixed price for a limited amount of time

借款的税后成本——税后利率=借款利率×(1-税率)

The After-Tax Cost of Borrowing—After-Tax Rate = Borrowing Rate × (1 tax rate)

资本结构——公司债务和股权的组合

Capital Structure—The mix of debt and equity of a company

FRICTO —灵活性、风险、收入、控制、时间和其他事项,在制定资本结构决策时要考虑的清单

FRICTO—Flexibility, Risk, Income, Control, Timing, and Other matters, the checklist to be considered in making capital structure decisions

最优资本结构——最小化加权平均资本成本和最大化公司价值的结构

The Optimal Capital Structure—One that minimizes the weighted average cost of capital and maximizes the value of the firm

企业价值(EV) ——一家公司的总价值

Enterprise Value (EV)—The total value of a company

第 7 天

Day 7

运营

OPERATIONS

运营专题

Operations Topics

运筹学的历史

The History of Operations Research

问题解决框架

The Problem Solving Framework

流程图

Flow Diagrams

线性规划

Linear Programming

甘特图

Gantt Charts

关键路径法

Critical Path Method

排队论

Queuing Theory

库存

Inventories

经济订货量

Economic Order Quantities

物料需求计划

Material Requirements Planning

质量

Quality

信息技术

Information Technology

运营是唯一一个关注实际制造产品和提供服务的 MBA 课程——商业的最终目的。这是生产和运营管理 (POM) 教授每年向即将入学的 MBA 教授的内容。它必须被置若罔闻,因为大多数 MBA 都从事金融、市场营销和咨询。招聘人员可能认为 MBA 没有受到足够的培训,不值得在他们的工厂和工厂支付高薪。他们可能还认为,MBA 最好将 iPad、雪茄和惠普计算器留在总部。从我与招聘人员和学生的访谈来看,双方都缺乏兴趣是导致缺乏运营型 MBA 的原因。

Operations is the only MBA subject that concerns itself with actually making products and providing services—the ultimate purpose of business. That is the line Production and Operations Management (POM) professors deliver each year to incoming MBAs. It must fall on deaf ears, since most MBAs go into finance, marketing, and consulting. It may be that recruiters feel MBAs are not sufficiently trained to be worth the high salaries paid in their plants and factories. They may also believe that MBAs are best kept at headquarters with their iPads, cigars, and HP calculators. From my interviews with recruiters and students, lack of interest on both sides is responsible for the lack of operational-bound MBAs.

运营科目不全是工程和数字。POM 类也有人性化的一面。技术或定量方法为学生提供了多种数学工具,用于以临床方式解决运营问题。人本主义方法也教导学生从工人的角度看待运营问题。显然,许多业务解决方案都取决于员工的积极性。

Operational subjects are not all engineering and numbers. POM classes also have a humanistic side. The technical or quantitative approach presents students with a variety of mathematical tools with which to attack operational problems in a clinical fashion. The humanistic approach teaches students to look at operational problems from a worker’s perspective as well. Clearly many business solutions lie in employee motivation.

 

 

运营历史课

THE OPERATIONS HISTORY LESSON

自 20 世纪初以来,人们一直在研究改进商品和服务生产的方法。学者们相信,如果他们对企业的运作方式进行足够深入的研究,他们就会偶然发现那个可以带来总体效率的神奇公式。大部分开创性研究都是在工厂车间完成的。因为他们的名字和理论在文章和 MBA 对话中经常被提及,所以你最好将它们添加到你的商业词汇中。

Studies on methods to improve the production of goods and services have been conducted since the beginning of the twentieth century. Academics believed that if they only researched closely enough how businesses worked, they would stumble on that magic formula that would result in total efficiency. Much of that pioneering research was done on the factory floor. Because their names and theories are frequently mentioned in articles and MBA conversation, you had better add them to your business vocabulary.

 

 

弗雷德里克·泰勒

FREDERICK TAYLOR

被认为是“科学管理之父”的弗雷德里克·W·泰勒 (Frederick W. Taylor) 在 1800 年代末和 1900 年代初发展了他的科学管理理论。他研究、测量并记录了钢铁工人的行为。他表明,通过将一个复杂的任务分解成更小的组件任务,通过一个他称之为工作分解的过程,可以研究每个更小的任务,以找到完成它的最有效方法。通过成功组合最有效的元素,可以采用最佳的生产方法。泰勒进行了无数时间和运动研究使用秒表找到做事的“正确方法”。在泰勒看来,“士兵”是工人的天性,意思是懈怠。因此,管理层有责任控制工作场所并迫使懒惰的员工不由自主地提高效率。

Frederick W. Taylor, considered the “father of scientific management,” developed his scientific management theories in the late 1800s and the early 1900s. He studied, measured, and documented the behavior of steelworkers. He showed that by breaking down a complex task into smaller component tasks, through a process that he called job fractionalization, each smaller task could be studied to find the most efficient way of accomplishing it. By successfully combining the most efficient elements, the best production methods could be adopted. Taylor performed countless time and motion studies using a stopwatch to find the “one right way” of doing things. In Taylor’s opinion, it was in a worker’s nature to “soldier,” meaning to slack off. Therefore, it was management’s responsibility to control the workplace and to force lazy workers to be efficient in spite of themselves.

 

 

弗兰克和莉莲·吉尔布雷斯

FRANK AND LILLIAN GILBRETH

吉尔布雷斯夫妇还研究了实现最高工厂效率的方法。他们的调查导致他们开发了 17 种身体运动类型,涵盖了工厂工人的运动范围。每个动作都称为therblig。和泰勒一样,吉尔布雷斯兄弟将一项复杂的任务分解成多个组成部分。通过了解每个元素,可以通过消除浪费的动作来简化工作。将任务精简到其基本要素是关键。Lillian 的孩子们在一本名为Cheaper by the Dozen的幽默书中写到她试图简化养育十二个孩子家庭的琐事。1984 年,美国邮政总局发行了 40 美分的邮票以纪念她对商业和文学的贡献。

The Gilbreths also studied ways to achieve peak factory efficiency. Their investigations led them to the development of a spectrum of seventeen types of body movements that covered the range of a factory worker’s motion. Each motion was called a therblig. Like Taylor, the Gilbreths broke a complex task into its component parts. By understanding each element, one could simplify a job through the elimination of wasteful motion. Streamlining the task to its essential therbligs was key. Lillian’s children wrote about her attempts to streamline the chores of parenting a family of twelve children in a humorous book entitled Cheaper by the Dozen. In 1984 the U.S. Postal Service commemorated her contribution to business and literature with a forty-cent stamp.

 

 

埃尔顿·梅奥

ELTON MAYO

埃尔顿梅奥被认为是生产管理人际关系运动之父。在追求效率的过程中,梅奥认为工人的情绪状态与找到正确的动作组合一样重要。

Elton Mayo is considered the father of the human relations movement of production management. In his search for efficiency, Mayo believed that the emotional state of workers is just as important as finding the right combination of movements.

梅奥声名鹊起是他 1927 年在西部电气公司霍桑工厂进行的一系列实验的结果。在这些研究中,他改变了车间的光线强度,以努力发现能够带来最大生产力的照明度数。他发现,无论照明如何变化,工人的生产率都会提高。知道他们是一项研究的主题使工人们采取不同的行动。这种现象后来被称为霍桑效应。对结果感到困惑,梅奥采访了工人,发现他们表现更好,因为在实验期间,他们的主管对他们的待遇更好。流水线工人的积极性更高,因为作为实验的一部分,他们的琐碎工作获得了更大的意义。

Mayo’s claim to fame came as a result of a series of experiments he conducted in 1927 at the Hawthorne Works of the Western Electric Company. In those studies, he varied the intensity of light on the shop floor in an effort to discover the degree of lighting that would result in the greatest productivity. He found that regardless of changes in lighting, worker productivity increased. Knowing that they were the subject of a study made the workers act differently. That phenomenon came to be known as the Hawthorne effect. Puzzled by the results, Mayo interviewed the workers and found that they had performed better because during the experiment they were being treated better by their supervisors. The assembly line workers were further motivated because their menial tasks acquired greater meaning as part of an experiment.

 

 

第二次世界大战和管理科学方法

WORLD WAR II AND THE MANAGEMENT SCIENCE APPROACH

随着技术和工业化规模越来越复杂,运营问题也越来越难以解决。二战期间,生产瓶颈迫使政府求助于科学家和工程师,以帮助实现最大的军事生产。在寻求解决方案的过程中,这些先驱创建了数学模型以应用于生产问题。今天,这一运筹学分支被称为运筹学(OR)。其中一些模型将在本章后面介绍。

As the technology and the scale of industrialization became more complex, operational problems became more difficult to solve. During World War II, production bottlenecks forced the government to turn to scientists and engineers to help achieve maximum military production. In seeking solutions, these pioneers created mathematical models to apply to production problems. Today this branch of operational study is called operational research (OR). Some of those models are presented later in this chapter.

 

 

X理论、Y理论和Z理论

THEORY X, THEORY Y, AND THEORY Z

1960 年,麻省理工学院的道格拉斯·麦格雷戈 (Douglas McGregor) 将泰勒的管理科学方法重新命名为X 理论,并将梅奥的行为方法命名为Y理论。通过重新包装这些理论,他在运营史书中为自己赢得了一席之地。

In 1960, Douglas McGregor of MIT renamed Taylor’s scientific approach to management Theory X and dubbed Mayo’s behavioral approach Theory Y. By repackaging these theories, he made a place for himself in the operational history books.

X 理论的拥护者,如泰勒,对人类行为持更“悲观”的看法。他们认为,人天生就是懒惰的,需要通过奖励和惩罚来推动生产。工人缺乏创造力和雄心,除了他们的劳动外,几乎没有什么可以提供管理。

Theory X adherents, like Taylor, take a more “pessimistic” view of human behavior. They believe that people are inherently lazy and need to be pushed to produce with rewards and punishments. Workers lack creativity and ambition and have little to offer management other than their labor.

像梅奥这样的 Y 理论拥护者认为,在支持性的工作环境下,员工会自我激励。工人富有创造力,应征求他们的意见以提高生产力。他们也有能力为自己的工作承担更多的责任。

Theory Y adherents, like Mayo, believe that workers are self-motivated given a supportive work environment. Workers are inventive and should be consulted for ideas to improve productivity. They are also capable of assuming more responsibility for their work.

在 20 世纪 80 年代,Y 理论更进了一步。William Ouchi 将日本管理所使用的仁慈的 Y 理论称为Z 理论。在 20 世纪 80 年代中期,一些“专家”认为 Z 理论是日本竞争优势的秘诀。使用 Z,日本人将管理层和工人聚集在一个有凝聚力的工作组中。每个人都是协商一致的决策过程的一部分。为了提高质量,工人和管理层在质量圈内共同努力。每个员工都参与改善——改善个人和公司各个方面所必需的持续斗争。MBA 将此称为持续质量改进(CQI)。当员工觉得自己是企业的合作伙伴时,他们的工作效率就会更高,工作也会更投入。

In the 1980s Theory Y was taken a step further. William Ouchi called the benevolent Theory Y used by Japanese management Theory Z. In the mid-1980s some “experts” thought Theory Z was the secret of the Japanese competitive advantage. Using Z, the Japanese bring together management and workers in cohesive work groups. Everyone is part of a consensual decision-making process. To improve quality, workers and management work together in quality circles. Every employee is involved in kaizen—the continuous struggle necessary to improve all aspects of the self and of the company. MBAs refer to this as continuous quality improvement (CQI). When workers feel like partners in the business, they become more productive and committed to their jobs.

 

 

应急方法

THE CONTINGENCY APPROACH

由于科学方法和人际关系方法都不能在任何时候都成功使用,权变方法的支持者认为管理者应该改变和结合这两种理论以适应这种情况。如果能把泰勒的经典方法和一点日本的Z理论结合起来,效果好就更好了。

Because neither the scientific methods nor human relations approaches can be used successfully at all times, the proponents of the contingency approach believe that managers should alter and combine the two theories to fit the situation. If the classical methods of Taylor can be combined with a bit of Japanese Theory Z, so much the better if the result is good.

 

 

运营问题解决框架

THE PROBLEM SOLVING FRAMEWORK FOR OPERATIONS

现在您已经获得了一点历史视角,您可以准备体验核心 MBA 运营教育。尝试生产产品或服务时会出现五个问题:

Now that you have acquired a little historical perspective, you are ready to experience the core MBA operations education. Five issues arise when trying to produce a product or service:

 

 

产能——我能生产多少?

Capacity—How much can I produce?

日程安排——我要怎么做?

Scheduling—How am I going to do it?

库存——有多少库存,我该如何减少它?

Inventory—How much inventory is there and how can I reduce it?

标准——我如何看待高效生产和优质输出?

Standards—What do I consider efficient production and quality output?

控制——生产过程是否正常?

Control—Is the production process working?

 

 

MBA 的运营教育是初级的。目标不是培养工程师,而是培养了解制造和服务提供过程的经理。上面提出的五个问题中的每一个都可以而且应该得到非常详细的研究,以实现最有效的生产方法;然而,本着本书的精神,我将只介绍一些流行理论的重点,为您提供基础知识。

An MBA’s operations education is rudimentary. The object is to turn out not engineers, but managers who understand the manufacturing and service-rendering process. Each of the five issues raised above can and should be studied in great detail to achieve the most efficient production methods; however, in the spirit of this book, I will present only the highlights of some popular theories to offer you the basics.

 

 

能力的六个 M

THE SIX M’S OF CAPACITY

为了回答你能生产多少的问题,MBAs 使用六个 M 来指导他们进行制造分析。M 专注于决定任何生产设施限制的领域。有些学校只教授四个 M,而其他学校则将六个扩展为七个。无论如何,所有排名前十的学校都教授 M 课程。

To answer the question of how much you can produce, MBAs use six M’s to guide them in manufacturing analysis. The M’s focus on the areas that determine the limits of any production facility. Some schools teach only four M’s, while others stretch the six into seven. In any case, M’s are taught at all the Top Ten schools.

 

 

方法——你是否选择了完成运营任务的最佳方法?机器是否放置在最高效的工厂车间配置中?

Methods—Have you chosen the best method of accomplishing the operational task? Are the machines placed in the most efficient factory-floor configuration?

材料——您需要的材料是否可用且质量好?您是否有能力在生产过程需要时高效地采购、存储和分发材料?

Materials—Are the materials you need available and of good quality? Do you have the capability to purchase efficiently, store, and distribute the materials when needed by the production process?

人力——您是否拥有训练有素且高效的工人和管理人员来实现您的生产目标?您的员工是否接受过足够的培训以运营您可能获得的任何新技术?

Manpower—Do you have well-trained and productive workers and managers to accomplish your production goals? Are your workers sufficiently trained to operate any new technology that you may acquire?

机械——您是否拥有适合这项工作的工具?您的机器是否满足您的需求:能力、速度、可靠性、技术?

Machinery—Do you have the right tools for the job? Do your machines meet your needs: capabilities, speed, reliability, technology?

资金——是否有现金来资助生产?根据整个组织的优先事项、能力和其他机会,对工厂、设备和库存的投资是否合理?预计的现金流量是否值得投资?(一个财务问题。)

Money—Is the cash to fund production available as needed? Is the investment in factories, equipment, and inventories justified in light of the entire organization’s priorities, capabilities, and other opportunities? Does the projected cash flow justify the investment? (A finance question.)

消息——您是否有一个系统可以在生产团队的所有成员(人和机器)之间共享准确、及时的信息?一台机器需要与其运营员以及其他机器以电子方式共享关于装配线上的输出和质量的信息。

Messages—Do you have a system for sharing accurate and timely information among all members of the production team—people and machines? A machine needs to electronically share information about output and quality on an assembly line with its operator, as well as with other machines.

 

 

生产方法分为三种基本类型:

Production methods are of three basic types:

 

 

连续过程

Continuous Process

流水线

Assembly Line

加工车间

Job Shop

 

 

产品越标准化,重复、大批量的生产方法就越有可能是最好的。例如,炼油厂使用连续生产过程。炼油设备二十四小时不间断工作。炼油厂的运营重点是保持设备平稳运行。这种运营的缺点是不灵活。系统的变化通常需要代价高昂的停机。

The more standardized the product, the more likely that a repetitive, high-volume production method is best. Oil refineries, for instance, use a continuous production process. Refining equipment works twenty-four hours a day. The operational focus at the refinery is to keep the equipment functioning smoothly. The downside of this kind of operation is that it is not flexible. Changes in the system usually require costly shutdowns.

旧的亨利福特装配线是一个不太连续的过程。汽车生产被分解成单独的任务;每个都在一系列工作站中重复执行。挑战在于协调每项任务的输出以最大限度地提高效率,并最大限度地减少持有大量昂贵库存的需要。流水线方法具有一定的灵活性。可以在不停机的情况下对过程进行微小的更改。自动装配线可以在不中断流程的情况下适应可选设备的不同组合。

The old Henry Ford assembly line is a somewhat less continuous process. Auto production is broken down into separate tasks; each is performed repetitively in a series of workstations. The challenge is to coordinate the outputs of each task to maximize efficiency, and to minimize the need to hold a great deal of costly inventory. The assembly line method allows for some flexibility. Minor changes can be made to the process without a shutdown. Auto assembly lines can accommodate different combinations of optional equipment without interrupting the process.

流水线系统也可用于执行服务。俄罗斯一位专门从事白内障切除术的有进取心的外科医生将手术分解为多个组成部分,并创建了一条手术流水线。

The assembly line system can also be used to perform services. An enterprising surgeon in Russia who specialized in the removal of cataracts broke the operation into its component tasks and created a surgical assembly line.

要生产定制产品,作业车间系统通常是最好的。在加工车间中,工厂的设置是为了完成许多不同的任务。机器在工作中心组织起来以处理独特的生产工作。金属机械车间、印刷车间、医院手术室和家具制造商通常以这种方式组织。每个订单都有些不同,但每项工作都可能使用相同的基本设备或仪器。

To produce customized products, the job shop system is often best. In a job shop, the factory is set up to do many different tasks. Machinery is organized in work centers to tackle unique production jobs. Metal machine shops, print shops, hospital operating rooms, and furniture makers are commonly organized in this way. Each order is somewhat different, but the same basic equipment or instruments may be used for each job.

 

 

使用流程图诊断容量问题。大多数 MBA 被派往工厂担任顾问而不是工厂经理。他们通常携带扁平的塑料流程图模板而不是扳手。这些模板是切出矩形、三角形和菱形的塑料模板。它们用于表示制造过程。通过规划流程,MBAs 希望找到瓶颈、低效率和信息共享问题。当 MBA 将生产流程称为吞吐量时,一个明显的迹象表明你在场。

Diagnosing Capacity Problems with Flow Diagrams. Most MBAs are sent to factories as consultants rather than as plant managers. Instead of a wrench, they usually carry a flat plastic flow diagram template. These templates are plastic stencils with rectangles, triangles, and diamonds cut out. They are used to represent the manufacturing process. By mapping out the process, MBAs hope to find bottlenecks, inefficiency, and information-sharing problems. A clear sign that you are in the presence of an MBA is when he or she refers to production flows as throughputs.

根据我的经验,在加油站给我的汽车换油大约需要二十分钟;在 Jiffy Lube,只需十分钟。一个简单的流程图分析(如下)说明了原因。

In my experience, changing my car’s oil at the gas station takes approximately twenty minutes; at Jiffy Lube, it takes only ten minutes. A simple process-flow-diagram analysis (below) tells why.

 

 

街角加油站——我必须离开我的车,需要预约

Corner Gas Station—I must leave my car, appointment necessary

图片

Jiffy Lube——我在等我的车,无需预约

Jiffy Lube—I wait for my car, no appointment necessary

图片

Jiffy Lube 专注于使用流水线技术更换机油。设施、工具和工人专为这项任务而设置。团队用于尽快完成工作。有了自己的模板,您也可以通过绘制任何生产流程的图表来充当顾问。

Jiffy Lube specializes in oil changes using an assembly line technique. The facility, the tools, and the workers are set up for only this task. Teams are used to complete the job as quickly as possible. Armed with your own template, you can act like a consultant too by diagramming any production process.

 

 

线性规划:处理容量限制。生产总是面临限制。材料可能很稀缺。机器有生产限制。熟练的劳动力很难找到。目标是在现行限制条件下选择最佳行动方案。被认为最好的是能够以最低成本产生最大产出、最多收入和最大利润的决策。因为通常有几十个生产约束,所以通过反复试验找到最佳解决方案几乎是不可能的。幸运的是,有一种计算机技术可以完成这项工作。它被称为线性规划(LP)。线性程序使用单纯形法来计算它们的解。

Linear Programming: Dealing with Capacity Constraints. Production is always faced with constraints. Materials may be scarce. Machines have production limits. Skilled labor is tough to find. The goal is to choose the best course of action within the prevailing constraints. What is considered best is the decision that will yield the largest output, the most revenue, and greatest profits at the least cost. Because often there are dozens of production constraints, to try to find an optimal solution by trial and error can be nearly impossible. Mercifully, a computer technique exists to do the work. It’s called linear programming (LP). Linear programs use the simplex method to calculate their solutions.

以 Tangerine Computer 工厂为例,该工厂生产两种类型的计算机:Deluxe 和 Standard。豪华型需要一个特殊机箱和两个磁盘驱动器,而标准型需要一个标准机箱和一个磁盘驱动器。但是,零件供应仅限于 30 个豪华机箱、60 个标准机箱和 120 个磁盘驱动器。如果豪华型的利润是 500 美元,标准型的利润是 300 美元,工厂应该生产多少单位?你是怎么解决的?

Consider the Tangerine Computer factory, which produces two types of computers: a Deluxe and a Standard. The Deluxe model requires a special chassis and two disk drives, whereas the Standard model requires one standard chassis and one disk drive. However, the parts supply is limited to 30 Deluxe chassis, 60 Standard chassis, and 120 disk drives. If the profit on the Deluxe model is $500 and the profit on the Standard model is $300, how many of each unit should the factory produce? How do you sort it out?

第一步是定义将最大化或最小化所需结果的线性方程。在这种情况下,Tangerine 希望利润最大化。

The first step is to define the linear equation that will either maximize or minimize the desired results. In this case, Tangerine wants to maximize profits.

 

 

(X 豪华型× 500 美元) + (Y 标准型× 300 美元) =总利润

(X Deluxe Models × $500) + (Y Standard Models × $300) = Total Profits

生产的限制是零件供应:

The constraints on production are the parts supplies:

 

 

豪华机箱使用:(X台× 1)+(Y台× 0)<30台

Deluxe Chassis Use: (X units × 1) + (Y units × 0) < 30 units

标准机箱使用:(X台× 0)+(Y台× 1)<60台

Standard Chassis Use: (X units × 0) + (Y units × 1) < 60 units

磁盘驱动器使用:(X 单位× 2) + (Y 单位× 1) < 120 单位

Disk Drive Use: (X units × 2) + (Y units × 1) < 120 units

 

 

计算机程序会尝试多种组合,直到确定利润最大化的生产水平。在这种情况下,解决方案是:

The computer program tries many combinations until it has determined the production level that maximizes profits. In this case the solution is:

 

 

(30 款豪华款× 500 美元)+(60 款标准款× 300 美元)= 33,000 美元 利润

(30 Deluxe Models × $500) + (60 Standard Models × $300) = $33,000 Max. Profit

在大多数生产环境中,公司可以选择生产许多模型。还有很多生产限制。LP可以确定最佳方案。

In most production settings there are many models that a company can choose to produce. There are also many production constraints. LP can determine the best plan.

线性规划技术也可用于解决运输和配送问题。例如,麦当劳的供应商有很多仓库、很多特许经营商和有限的卡车车队。目标是找到从一千个或更多可能的仓库/餐厅路线组合中运送商品的最便宜的方式。线性规划可以完成这项工作。

Linear programming techniques can also be used to solve transportation and distribution problems. For example, McDonald’s vendors have many warehouses, many franchisees, and a limited truck fleet. The goal is to find the cheapest way to ship the merchandise from a thousand or more possible warehouse/restaurant route combinations. Linear programming can do the job.

 

 

调度

SCHEDULING

亨利甘特图和甘特图调度。在 1800 年代后期,亨利·甘特 (Henry Gantt) 假设标准不仅应该针对任务的执行,还应该针对它们的调度顺序。“先生。调度”认为应该确定最佳时间,以便可以有效地计划、协调和执行生产任务的顺序。如果调度失控,就会出现瓶颈,低效率会毒害系统。

Henry Gantt and Gantt Chart Scheduling. In the late 1800s Henry Gantt postulated that standards should be set not only for the performance of tasks, but also for their scheduling sequence. “Mr. Scheduling” felt that optimal timing should be determined so that the sequence of production tasks could be efficiently planned, coordinated, and performed. If scheduling ran amok, bottlenecks would occur and inefficiency would poison the system.

特图是亨利·甘特 ( Henry Gantt) 对效率的贡献,它是一个网格,其中一个轴列出了生产周期中所需的任务,另一个轴列出了它们的时间顺序。使用甘特图可以安排整个生产过程,并且可以轻松识别关键任务或瓶颈。甘特图可用于多种设置;他们不限于工厂。诸如买房之类的项目可以用甘特图来描述(见下文)。

The Gantt chart, Henry Gantt’s contribution to efficiency, is a grid in which tasks required in a production cycle are listed along one axis and their time sequence along the other. With a Gantt chart the entire production process can be scheduled, and critical tasks or bottlenecks can readily be identified. Gantt charts can be used in a variety of settings; they are not restricted to a factory. A project such as buying a house can be depicted in a Gantt chart (see below).

买房甘特图

GANNT CHART FOR BUYING A HOUSE

图片

关键路径调度法 (CPM)。20 世纪 50 年代为我们带来了一种更复杂的确定最佳调度的方法:关键路径法(CPM)。CPM 用于需要协调许多任务的复杂生产项目。存在一种更复杂的 CPM 形式,称为PERT,项目评估和审查技术。然而,今天大多数商人可以互换使用 PERT 和 CPM。

Critical Path Method of Scheduling (CPM). The 1950s brought us a more sophisticated way of determining optimal scheduling: the critical path method (CPM). CPM is used for complicated production projects that require the coordination of many tasks. An even more complex form of CPM exists called PERT, Program Evaluation and Review Technique. However, today most businesspeople use PERT and CPM interchangeably.

使用 CPM,生产经理按顺序安排每项任务或活动,并估计完成每项任务或活动所需的时间。每次任务开始或完成时,它都称为事件。CPM 图表以图形方式显示项目的所有事件。这使生产工程师能够估计和管理完成工作的时间。由于显示了所有任务,因此可以识别关键活动。可能阻碍项目的任务被认为是关键的。该图表组织并突出了关键任务,并预测了完成整个项目所需的时间。

Using CPM, production managers arrange each task or activity in sequential order and estimate the time needed to complete each one. Each time a task begins or is completed it is called an event. The CPM chart displays graphically all the events of a project. This enables a production engineer to estimate and manage the time to complete the job. Because all tasks are shown, the critical activities can be identified. The tasks that could potentially hold up a project are considered critical. The chart organizes and highlights the critical tasks, and it forecasts the time necessary to complete the entire project.

举个例子,通用动力公司的生产工程师 Kip Mustang 想为战斗机生产一个新的开关。飞行员报告说,在 2003 年伊拉克自由行动期间卡住的那个开关控制着弹射座椅。Kip 确定了该项目涉及的五项主要活动:

To illustrate, Kip Mustang, production engineer at General Dynamics, would like to produce a new switch for a fighter plane. The switch in question that pilots reported as sticking during Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003 controls the ejection seat. Kip determined the five main activities involved in the project:

 

 

A: 设计生产机械和准备制造图纸= 2 周

A: Design production machinery and prepare manufacturing drawings = 2 weeks

B:准备生产设施以接收新机器和零件= 4 周

B: Prepare production facilities to receive new machines and parts = 4 weeks

C:购买用于生产的工具和零件= 3 周

C: Buy tooling and parts for production = 3 weeks

D: 库存零件和安装生产机器= 1 周

D: Stock parts and install production machinery = 1 week

E: 测试新生产线= 1 周

E: Test new production line = 1 week

CPM 图表如下所示:

The CPM chart would look like this:

弹射座椅开关项目关键路径图

EJECTION SEAT SWITCH PROJECT CRITICAL PATH CHART

图片

General Dynamics 的每项任务都由一个箭头表示活动,一个圆圈表示每个事件。如图所示,设置交换机生产线的最短路径为七周。这些沿着最长路径(称为关键路径)的活动决定并控制项目的长度。当关键任务可以更快地完成时,这称为项目崩溃,因为项目可以更快地完成。如果可以加快工具的设计速度,那么 Switch 项目就会崩溃。如果任何关键活动(例如设计生产工具)被延迟,项目就会被延迟。非关键活动,例如准备设施,不会阻碍项目。他们有内置的松弛时间。

Each task at General Dynamics is represented by an arrow for the activity and a circle for each event. As shown in the diagram, the shortest path to set up the production line for the switch is seven weeks. These activities along the longest path, called the critical path, determine and control the length of the project. When critical tasks can be accomplished faster, this is called crashing the project, because the project can be finished sooner. If designing the tooling could be sped up, that would crash the switch project. If any of the critical activities, such as designing the production tooling, is delayed, the project is delayed. Noncritical activities, such as preparing the facility, do not hold up the project. They have built-in slack time.

对于大型工程、建筑和制造项目,需要跟踪无数任务。对于这些项目,可以使用计算机软件来帮助创建图表和进行时序计算。这个神奇工具的缺点是设置和管理繁琐的 CPM 图表需要时间。Bell & Howell Co. 的首席执行官 Donald N. Frey 回忆说:“我们都做过这些 [1950 年代的 CPM 图表],但是完成图表需要付出很多努力,你还不如花时间完成工作。” 如今,它们是使用计算机创建的,尽管仍然很困难且耗时,但 CPM 图表是可行的。

With large engineering, construction, and manufacturing projects, there are myriad tasks to keep track of. For these projects, computer software is available to help create the chart and do the timing calculations. The drawback to this wonder tool is the time needed to set up and manage the tedious CPM charts. “We all did them [CPM charts in the 1950s],” recalls Donald N. Frey, chief executive of Bell & Howell Co., “but it took so much effort to get the charts done, you might as well have spent the time getting the job done.” Today they are created using a computer, and although still difficult and time consuming, CPM charts are doable.

 

 

排队论来安排。曾经在银行排队吗?尝试通过电话订购时被困在等待中?然后排队论是一个你可能会感兴趣的话题。队列是人员或产品在获得服务之前等待的任何线路。每个为队列中的一个人服务的人称为一个频道。MBA 使用排队论来安排员工并设计等候线以节省资金并改善服务。效率问题在于每个队列所需的最佳通道数。例如,一位银行经理希望出纳员少,排队时间短。

Queuing Theory to Schedule. Ever been stuck in line at a bank? Trapped on hold while trying to order something by phone? Then queuing theory is a topic that you might find interesting. A queue is any line that either people or products wait in before they are serviced. Each person servicing a person in a queue is called a channel. MBAs use queuing theory to schedule workers and to design waiting lines to save money and improve service. The question of efficiency lies in the optimal number of channels needed per queue. For instance, a bank manager would like to have few tellers and short lines.

要回答排队问题,您必须确定几件事:

To answer queuing questions, you must determine several things:

 

 

A =每单位时间随机到达的平均数

A = Average number of random arrivals per unit of time

S =单位时间内每个通道提供的平均服务数

S = Average number of services provided per channel per unit of time

M =可用通道数

M = Number of available channels

 

 

使用这些信息项和一系列表格,您可以进行多项计算:

With those items of information and a series of tables, you can make several calculations:

 

 

图片

让我们继续以银行业为例:考虑曼哈顿下城的一家花旗银行,其一名特快出纳员可以以每小时 50 笔的速度处理存款,平均客户到达率为每小时 45 人。

Let’s continue the banking example: Consider a Citibank in lower Manhattan with one express teller who can process deposits at a rate of 50 per hour with an average customer arrival rate of 45 people per hour.

 

 

图片

有了这些信息和下面的缩略表,排队等候的平均人数应该是 8.1。

With that information and the abbreviated table below, the average number of people waiting in line should be 8.1.

 

 

A/MS: .45

A/MS: .45

= 1: .37

M = 1: .37

= 2: .23

M = 2: .23

 

 

A/MS: .50

A/MS: .50

= 1: .50

M = 1: .50

= 2: .33

M = 2: .33

 

 

A/MS: .60

A/MS: .60

= 1: .90

M = 1: .90

= 2: .67

M = 2: .67

 

 

A/MS: .70

A/MS: .70

= 1: 1.60

M = 1: 1.60

= 2: 1.30

M = 2: 1.30

 

 

A/MS: .80

A/MS: .80

= 1: 3.20

M = 1: 3.20

= 2: 2.90

M = 2: 2.90

 

 

A/MS: .90

A/MS: .90

= 1: 8.10

M = 1: 8.10

= 2: 7.70

M = 2: 7.70

 

 

通过增加第二个特快柜员,平均排队人数将从 8 人减少到 4 人,这似乎合乎逻辑,不是吗?

It would seem logical that by adding a second express teller, the average line would be cut from 8 to 4, wouldn’t it?

 

 

图片

通过增加一名额外的出纳员,等候队伍将减少 97% 以上。当线路非常繁忙时,第二个出纳员会发挥很大的作用。只有排队论可以告诉你。这个出纳员问题是最简单的例子。一门完整的“科学”围绕着排队诞生了。学术界已经创建了表格和图表书籍来回答许多排队难题。尽管您可能不是专家,但您现在知道排队论的存在。这就是大多数 MBA 课程的运作方式。他们教你基础知识,但他们希望作为 MBA,你会寻找专家来实施该计划。

The waiting line would be reduced by over 97 percent by adding an extra teller. When the line is very busy, the second teller makes a big difference. Only queuing theory could tell you that. This teller problem is the simplest of examples. A whole “science” has been born around queuing. Academics have created books of tables and charts to answer many queuing dilemmas. Although you may not be an expert, you now know of the existence of queuing theory. That’s how most MBA courses work. They teach you the fundamentals, but they expect that as an MBA, you’ll seek out an expert to implement the program.

 

 

存货

INVENTORY

平衡法。最佳库存水平是一种微妙的平衡行为。库存决策很艰难,因为同一家公司的不同部门有不同的目标。在汽车方面,营销人员宁愿库存过多也不愿库存过少。销售人员希望为他们的客户提供产品。他们讨厌失去销售,因为他们已经离开了热门的小型货车或跑车。财务人员希望持有尽可能少的库存。较小的库存投资使他们手头有更多现金用于其他投资或支付更高的股息。生产部门喜欢尽可能高效地运行。长时间运行减少了多次启动和停止的浪费,但当然也可能导致大量库存增加。MBA 称这个过程为使这一切正确供应链管理。

The Balancing Act. The optimal inventory level is a delicate balancing act. Inventory decisions are tough because different departments of the same company have different goals. When it comes to automobiles, marketers prefer to have too much rather than too little inventory. Salespeople want product for their customers. They hate to lose a sale because they are out of the hot minivan or sports car. Finance people want to carry the least amount of inventory possible. A smaller inventory investment leaves them with more cash on hand for other investments or to pay higher dividends. Production departments like to run as efficiently as possible. Long runs reduce the waste of multiple starts and stops, but can, of course, also be responsible for significant inventory buildups. MBAs call the process for getting all this right supply chain management.

 

 

库存词汇。库存以三种形式之一存在,无论是在工厂还是在面包店:

Inventory Vocabulary. Inventory exists in one of three forms, be it in a factory or in a bakery:

 

 

原材料——面粉、糖、起酥油、现成的糖衣等。

Raw Materials—Flour, sugar, shortening, ready-made icing, etc.

制品——面团、烤箱中的糕点、冷却托盘上的糕点

Work in Process—Dough, pastry in the oven, pastry on cooling trays

成品——待售的蛋糕、饼干和甜甜圈

Finished Goods—Cakes, cookies, and doughnuts ready for sale

 

 

存货不仅包括材料的投资,还包括人工的投资。只要存货仍在公司手中,资金就会被占用。分析库存水平的一种简单且说明性的方法是下面的库存流程图。它显示了工厂库存的类型和价值。在制造产品时,原材料与劳动力相结合,创造出更高价值的成品。

Inventory includes not only the investment in materials, but also the investment in labor. As long as inventory remains in a company’s possession, money is being tied up. A simple and illustrative way of analyzing inventory levels is the inventory flow diagram below. It shows the type and value of a factory’s inventory. As a product is made, raw materials are combined with labor to create finished goods of higher value.

库存流程图

INVENTORY FLOW DIAGRAM

图片

持有库存的原因。持有库存有五个主要和合法的理由:

Reasons for Holding Inventory. There are five major and legitimate justifications for holding inventory:

 

 

管道——手头库存,以最大限度地减少生产延迟并最大限度地提高效率

Pipeline—Inventory on hand to minimize production delays and maximize efficiency

周期——供应商的最低订单量大于即时需求。

Cycle—Suppliers have minimum order amounts that are greater than immediate need.

安全——持有库存以避免因不确定的生产需求而导致短缺。当生产停止时,缺货会造成损失。

Safety—Stocks held to avoid a shortage because of uncertain production demands. Stockouts cost money when production is halted.

预期——预期已知需求而持有的库存

Anticipatory—Inventory held in anticipation of known demand

投机- 购买物品以击败供应商价格上涨

Speculative—Items purchased to beat supplier price increases

 

 

在高效的公司中,材料及时到达生产。这称为即时库存 (JIT)。日本人以此闻名。工厂生产线工人根据需要使用称为看板的库存订单卡请求零件。然而,JIT 并不一定意味着零部件供应商按照汽车制造商装配线需求的准确速度生产。实际上,零件库存存放在实力较弱的供应商的仓库中,直到被汽车制造商调用为止。真正的 JIT 让所有制造参与者协同工作以满足生产需求。

In efficient companies, materials arrive just in time for production. This is called just-in-time inventory (JIT). The Japanese are famous for this. Factory line workers request parts as needed with inventory order cards called kanban. However, JIT does not necessarily mean that parts suppliers produce at the exact rate of the automaker’s assembly line needs. In reality the parts inventory sits in the warehouse of less powerful suppliers until it is called in by the auto manufacturers. True JIT has all manufacturing participants working in concert to meet production demands.

经济订货量 (EOQ)。特殊的 EOQ 公式帮助 MBA 找到合适的库存数量来订购,以将零件、原材料或货架物品保持在最低限度。

Economic Order Quantity (EOQ). Special EOQ formulas help MBAs find just the right quantity of inventory to order to keep parts, raw materials, or shelf items to a minimum.

经济订单数量公式基于与库存相关的两种成本的权衡。

The Economic Order Quantity formula is based on the trade-off of two costs associated with inventory.

 

 

持有成本——与库存的存储、保险和融资相关的成本。应考虑在别处使用公司资金的机会成本。

Carrying Costs—The costs associated with storage, insurance, and financing of inventory. The opportunity cost of using the company’s funds elsewhere should be considered.

订购成本——订购成本,包括与下订单相关的所有会计和文书工作以及材料

Ordering Costs—The costs of ordering that include all the accounting and clerical labor and materials associated with placing an order

 

 

有两个极端。工厂经理可能会选择不经常订购大量零件,这会降低订购成本,但会最大限度地提高持有成本。或者他或她可能会频繁订购以降低持有成本,从而最大化订购成本。下图显示,当订购成本和运输成本都最小化时,总成本最低的是库存水平。

There are two extremes. A factory manager may choose to order huge quantities of parts infrequently, which reduces order costs, but maximizes carrying costs. Or he or she may order frequently to reduce carrying costs, maximizing ordering costs. The graph below shows that the least total cost is the inventory level when both ordering and carrying costs are minimized.

订购和持有库存的平衡 EOQ 图

THE BALANCE OF ORDERING AND HOLDING INVENTORY THE EOQ GRAPH

图片

EOQ 公式试图找到使订购和运输的总成本最小化的最佳点。

The EOQ formula tries to find that optimal point at which the total cost of both ordering and carrying is minimized.

EOQ公式为:

The EOQ formula is:

 

 

图片

在哪里:

Where:

Q* =最优库存订货量

Q* = Optimal inventory order quantity

R =年度单位需求(需求)

R = Annual unit requirements (Demand)

O =下订单的成本

O = Cost of placing an order

C =每期持有单位存货的成本

C = Cost of carrying a unit of inventory per period

 

 

考虑一家汽车零部件经销商,它为堪萨斯城的一家装配厂供应汽车顶灯的替换灯泡。其销售历史表明,全年的灯泡需求量最有可能达到 2,000 个。经销商每次从通用电气订购一批货物时,处理订单的费用为 14 美元。一项详细的成本研究表明,每个灯泡库存一年的成本为 0.50 美元。

Consider an auto parts distributor that supplies a Kansas City assembly plant with replacement lamp bulbs for car dome lights. Its sales history indicates that a level demand of 2,000 bulbs throughout the year is most likely. Each time the distributor orders a shipment from General Electric it costs $14 to process the order. A detailed study of costs reveals that it costs $.50 to carry each bulb in inventory for a year.

 

 

图片

 

 

该公式计算出最经济的库存订单为 335 个灯泡。由于需求是 2,000 个灯泡,这意味着每年将有大约 6 个订单 (2000/335)。听起来很简单。但事实并非如此。简单的 EOQ 公式仅在需求水平时才有效。当全年需求波动剧烈时,例如杂货店对袋装冰块、蛋酒或啤酒的需求,EOQ 模型就没有什么价值了。复杂的计算机程序更频繁地执行修改后的 EOQ 计算,以针对波动的需求预测调整 EOQ。在这些情况下,计算机会在一年中多次计算不同的最佳订单大小。尽管 EOQ 公式的应用有限,但如果出现问题,MBA 可以与库存专家进行明智的交谈。因为当库存意外堆积时,这是一件严肃的事情。

The formula calculates the most economic inventory order as 335 bulbs. Since the demand is 2,000 bulbs, this means that there will be about six orders per year (2000/335). Sounds simple. But it is not. The simple EOQ formula only works if the demand is level. When demand fluctuates wildly throughout the year, as in the case of a grocery store’s demand for bagged ice, eggnog, or beer, the EOQ model has little value. Sophisticated computer programs perform a modified EOQ calculation more frequently to adjust the EOQ for fluctuating demand projections. In those situations the computer calculates varying optimal order sizes many times throughout the year. Even though the EOQ formula’s application is limited, an MBA can talk intelligently with inventory experts if a problem arises. Because when inventory piles up unexpectedly, it is serious business.

图片

“我们被困在 700,000 蒲式耳的玉米中,有人不得不吃掉它。”

“WE’RE STUCK WITH 700,000 BUSHELS OF CORN AND SOMEONE IS GOING TO HAVE TO EAT IT.”

 

 

物料需求计划 (MRP):库存和产能管理。生产调度和库存控制的知识使最先进的制造成为可能。MRP 是一种计划和控制工厂所需库存的方法。有人说 MRP 的意思是“制造资源计划”,但无论如何,MRP 都是一个提高制造效率的复杂系统。MRP 计划生产并计算有效生产所需的最佳库存量。对于零件较多的产品,如汽车、家电、电子等,这种计算只能通过计算机来实现。

Material Requirements Planning (MRP): Inventory and Capacity Management. The knowledge of production scheduling and inventory control makes state-of-the-art manufacturing possible. MRP is a method for planning and controlling inventories required in a factory. Some say that MRP means “manufacturing resource planning,” but under any name, MRP is a sophisticated system to improve manufacturing efficiency. MRP schedules production and calculates the optimal amount of inventory needed for efficient production. With products that have many parts, such as automobiles, appliances, and electronics, such a calculation can only be arrived at by using a computer.

要设置系统,计算机程序员必须熟悉生产过程和材料要求。然后计算机可以将客户的产品需求转化为详细的订单,以指导工厂生产和供应商的材料申请。

To set up the system, the computer programmer must be familiar with the production process and material requirements. Then the computer can translate customer product demand into detailed orders to guide factory production and material requisitions from vendors.

当生产工程师确定最有效的生产方法时,MRP 流程就开始了。例如,对于像本田思域这样的汽车,装配线是最有效的生产方法。过程调查必须包括组装的每个步骤,从打磨原钢车身到将本田汽车开出工厂。时间和运动研究,例如泰勒近一个世纪前进行的研究,可能是必要的。必须知道机器和工人的能力才能确定工厂的能力。例如,生产工程师确切地知道每小时可以冲压出多少前四分之一面板以及运营压力机需要多少工时。

The MRP process begins when production engineers determine the most efficient production method. For autos like a Honda Civic, for example, the assembly line is the most efficient production method. The process investigation must include every step of assembly, from sanding the raw steel body to driving the Honda out of the factory. Time and motion studies, such as those Taylor conducted nearly a century ago, might be necessary. The capabilities of both machine and worker must be known to determine the capacity of the factory. For instance, production engineers know exactly how many front quarter panels can be stamped out per hour and how many man-hours are required to operate the press.

物料需求计划系统

MATERIAL REQUIREMENT PLANNING SYSTEM

图片

工艺工程师还必须详细说明产品的所有零件和材料要求。需求清单称为物料清单 (BOM)。它被记录在计算机中,以便生产需求可以“分解”为确切的材料需求。对于每辆本田思域,MRP 系统会知道它需要两个前照灯、46 个 2 英寸螺丝、4.2 夸脱油漆和数百个其他零件。物料库存也由 MRP 跟踪。通过这种方式,MRP 可以指导工厂经理保持足够的零件库存以满足生产线的需求。同时,MRP 通过告诉库存文员订购经济订单数量来最大限度地降低库存水平。

Process engineers also have to detail all the part and material requirements of a product. The requirements list is called a Bill of Materials (BOM). It is recorded in the computer so that production demands can be “exploded” into exact material needs. For each Honda Civic, the MRP system would know that it needed two headlamps, forty-six two-inch screws, 4.2 quarts of paint, and hundreds of other parts. The inventories of the materials are also tracked by MRP. In that way MRP can direct the factory manager to keep adequate part inventories to feed the production line needs. At the same time, MRP minimizes inventory levels by telling inventory clerks to order economic order quantities.

一个“完整的”MRP 系统,也称为企业资源规划(ERP) 软件协调从预测客户需求、成品装运、管理在途库存到商店货架库存的制造过程。计算机中的主生产计划 (MPS) 对所有有关需求、生产和材料的信息进行分类和存储,并发出订单以指导和协调制造。

A “complete” MRP system, also called enterprise resource planning (ERP) software, coordinates the manufacturing process from forecasting customer demand, shipment of the finished product, managing the inventory in transit, and stocking the store shelf. The Master Production Schedule (MPS) within the computer sorts and stores all the information about demand, production, and materials and sends out orders to direct and coordinate manufacturing.

 

 

标准和控制

STANDARDS AND CONTROL

创建 MRP 系统或使用其他 MBA 效率工具所需的有关生产过程的所有信息,为管理人员用来衡量和控制绩效的标准提供了基础。使用标准的 MBA 流行语是基准测试。这是会计师跳进来帮助业务运营方面的地方。会计章节的管理会计部分解释了会计师如何通过使用差异来跟踪和报告生产效率。工厂可以通过支付超过计划的材料(价格差异)或使用更多的材料或每单位生产的劳动力(材料和劳动力使用差异)来改变。通过设定标准并查看标准是否得到满足,生产经理可以控制流程。

All the information about the production process necessary to create an MRP system or to use the other MBA efficiency tools provides the basis for the standards that managers use to measure and control performance. An MBA buzzword for using standards is the term benchmarking. This is where accountants jump in to help the operational side of the business. The managerial accounting section of the accounting chapter explained how accountants track and report production efficiency through the use of variances. The factory can vary by paying more than planned for materials (price variances) or using more materials or labor per unit produced (material and labor usage variance). By setting standards and seeing if they are met, production managers control the process.

 

 

质量

QUALITY

运营课程将标准的概念更进一步,并处理对美国竞争力至关重要的“质量”问题。到底什么是质量?质量仅意味着产品或服务“符合制造商或消费者设定的标准”。质量并不一定意味着完美的产品或服务。它也不意味着像劳斯莱斯那样是同类产品中最昂贵的产品。优质产品的性能“符合预期”。像回形针这样平凡的东西,如果没有生锈并且能很好地把纸粘在一起,就可以被认为是高质量的。

Operations classes take the concept of standards a bit further and deal with the issue of “quality,” which is vital to America’s competitiveness. What is quality, anyway? Quality only means that the product or service “meets the standards” set by either the manufacturer or the consumer. Quality does not necessarily mean a flawless product or service. Nor does it mean the most expensive product in its class like a Rolls-Royce. Quality products perform “as expected.” Mundane things such as paper clips could be considered of high quality if they are not rusted and hold paper together well.

有三位重要的“质量大师”,他们的药方被吹捧为治愈美国陷入困境的制造业的良方:约瑟夫·朱兰、W. 爱德华兹·戴明和菲利普·克罗斯比。每个人都发了一笔关于质量的写作、演讲和咨询。

There are three important “quality gurus” whose prescriptions are touted as the cure for America’s troubled manufacturing: Joseph Juran, W. Edwards Deming, and Philip Crosby. Each has made a fortune writing, lecturing, and consulting about quality.

 

 

Juran 和适合使用。约瑟夫·朱兰 (Joseph Juran) 在谈到质量时使用了“适用性”一词。“消费者应该能够依靠该产品来满足他们的需要或想用它做的事情。” 制造商应该生产优质产品,同时“实现高产量和最少的停机时间”。

Juran and Fitness for Use. Joseph Juran uses the phrase “fitness for use” when speaking about quality. “Consumers should be able to count on the product for what they need or want to do with it.” Manufacturers should produce quality products while “achieving high yields and minimal downtime.”

适合使用有五个“维度”;设计质量、符合制造标准、无故障、令人满意的性能以及产品购买后易于维护。

Fitness for use has five “dimensions”; quality of design, conformance to manufacturing standards, lack of breakdowns, satisfactory performance, and the ease of maintenance of product after purchase.

 

 

Deming、TQM 和统计过程控制。W. 爱德华兹·戴明 (W. Edwards Deming) 因在 50 年代向日本人传授质量知识而闻名,当时美国工业界对这一主题兴趣不大。戴明非常简单地提出,可以通过在整个过程中找出生产问题的原因并通过仔细监控生产以在生产过多产品之前阻止错误来实现质量。该过程的每一步都是提高效率的机会;因此,术语全面质量管理(TQM)。

Deming, TQM, and Statistical Process Control. W. Edwards Deming is famous for having taught the Japanese about quality in the 1950s, when American industry showed little interest in the subject. Deming quite simply proposed that quality could be achieved by identifying the causes of production problems throughout the process and by carefully monitoring production to stop errors before too many products were produced. Every step of the process is an opportunity for increased efficiency; hence the term Total Quality Management (TQM).

他将问题分为两类,“常见原因”和“特殊原因”。常见原因是许多工人、机器或产品类型共有的系统性问题。特殊原因是那些与个别工人、机器或材料运输有关的问题。

He divided problems into two categories, “common causes” and “special causes.” Common causes are systemic problems, shared by many workers, machines, or product types. Special causes are those problems that relate to individual workers, machines, or material shipments.

戴明在 Juran 和 WA Shewhart 的帮助下,开发了一种用于识别问题的工具,称为统计过程控制(SPC)。“即使由同一运营员在同一台机器上生产的两个零件也不太可能完全相同。因此,问题在于将可接受的变化与可能表明存在问题的变化区分开来。” 统计概率提供了一种区分的方法。

Deming, with the help of Juran and W.A. Shewhart, developed a tool for identifying problems called statistical process control (SPC). “It is unlikely that two parts, even when produced by the same operator on the same machine, would ever be identical. The issue, therefore, was distinguishing acceptable variations from variations that could indicate problems.” Statistical probability provides a method of making that distinction.

生产工程师通过研究每个生产任务的预期公差来做出这种区分。例如,可口可乐装瓶厂的灌装机不会将两升恰好倒入两升的水壶中。误差范围是两升以上或以下几毫升。生产工程师需要进行详细研究,以确定通常喷射到每个瓶子中的液体量。本练习将确定钟形曲线或灌装量的统计频率分布。如果您还记得QA 一章中关于正态曲线或钟形曲线的讨论,出现 68% 时间的变异范围称为一个标准差一个西格玛从预期的数量。任何超出一西格玛公差质量标准的生产措施都将表明存在生产问题。如果生产经理愿意,他或她可以选择二西格玛或三西格玛公差。6 sigma也指摩托罗拉创造的一个程序,它指的是 6 sigma 标准或每百万 3.4 个缺陷的目标。许多公司都制定了 6-sigma 计划来减少缺陷并增加利润。

Production engineers make that distinction by studying the expected tolerance of each production task. For example, the filling machine at a Coca-Cola bottling plant does not pour exactly two liters into the two-liter jugs. The range of error is a few milliliters above or below two liters. Production engineers need to perform detailed studies to determine the usual amount of liquid squirted into each bottle. This exercise will result in a determination of the bell curve or statistical frequency distribution of filling quantities. If you remember the normal or bell curve discussion in the QA chapter, the range of variation that occurs 68 percent of the time was called one standard deviation or one sigma from the expected quantity. Any production measure outside a one-sigma-tolerance quality standard would signal a production problem. If a production manager desires, he or she can choose two- or three-sigma tolerances. Six sigma also refers to a program coined by Motorola that refers to a goal of a six-sigma standard or 3.4 defects per million. Many companies have six-sigma programs in place to reduce defects and increase profits.

在我的可口可乐示例中,生产工程师选择了一个西格玛公差,并发现在 68% 的时间里,他或她的抽样中测量的瓶子被灌装在高于或低于所需的两升水平 10 毫升的范围内.

In my Coca-Cola example, the production engineer selected a one-sigma tolerance and found that 68 percent of the time, the bottles measured in his or her sampling were filled within a range of ten milliliters above or below the desired two-liter level.

使用 Deming 的 SPC,灌装机运营员可以每小时从装配线上取出 10 个两升的罐子。使用 one-sigma 公差,两升和十毫升以上的样品将高于控制上限(UCL)。对于低于 2 升的那些,1,990 毫升将低于控制下限(拼箱)。超出限制的测量值将表示存在“特殊问题”,这意味着馈线被卷曲或堵塞。该过程将被视为“失控”,并且将指示运营员采取纠正措施。如果在校正之后下一个样品在 10 毫升公差范围内,则过程“受控”并且机器可以运行。(我选择 UCL 和 LCL 的可口可乐示例已大大简化,只是为了让您了解该主题。运营员在每个样本中采集的频率和数量极大地影响了限值的统计计算。)参见下图。

Using Deming’s SPC, a filling-machine operator could take hourly batches of ten two-liter jugs off the assembly line. Using one-sigma tolerance, samples above two liters and ten milliliters would be above the upper control limit (UCL). For those measuring below two liters, 1,990 milliliters would be below the lower control limit (LCL). Measurements outside the limits would signal a “special problem,” meaning a feeding line is crimped or clogged. The process would be considered “out of control,” and the operator would be instructed to take corrective action. If after the correction the next samples are within the ten-milliliter tolerance, the process is “in control” and the machines are allowed to operate. (My Coca-Cola example of selecting the UCL and LCL was greatly simplified merely to expose you to the subject. The frequency and number taken in each sample by the operator greatly affects the statistical calculation of limits.) See chart, below.

可乐灌装量的钟形曲线

BELL CURVE OF COLA FILL QUANTITIES

图片

使用 SPC,灌装机运营员在 SPC 图表上记录他的样本可口可乐测量值。在X 条控制图上,运营员记录他或她每小时进行的样本测量的平均值(X 条)。X 条形图显示机器随时间漂移或跳跃的任何趋势。如果图表接近极限,运营员可以在灌装机脱离统计控制之前进行调查。

Using SPC, the filling-machine operator records his sample Coca-Cola measurements on SPC charts. On X Bar Control Charts the operator records the average (X Bar) of the sample measurement he or she takes every hour. The X Bar chart shows any tendency of the machine to drift or jump over time. If the chart is approaching a limit, the operator can investigate before the filling machine gets out of statistical control.

R(范围)控制图揭示了过程随时间或多或少随机行为的任何趋势。它测量用于创建 X 条形图的相同采样中最大和最小测量值之间的范围。在每组样本中,样本测量值的平均值可能会掩盖不可接受的偏差。例如,一个一升测量值和一个三升测量值的样本平均为两升,并且在 X 条形图上看起来可以接受。然而,可以肯定的是,客户会对半灌装的瓶子以及因过度灌装而粘稠的瓶子感到不安。在超出 R 图限制的情况下,运营员还必须采取纠正措施。

The R (Range) Control Chart reveals any tendency of the process to behave more or less randomly over time. It measures the range between the largest and smallest measurement in the same sampling used to create the X Bar charts. Within each group sample, the average of the sample measurements might mask unacceptable deviations. For example, a sample of a one-liter measurement and a three-liter measurement would average to two liters and appear acceptable on an X Bar chart. However, it is safe to expect that customers would be upset with half-filled bottles as well as bottles sticky from being grossly overfilled. In the case of being outside of an R chart’s limit, the operator must also take corrective action.

以下 12 小时装瓶班次的假设 SPC X 条形图和 R 图表突出显示了问题。

The hypothetical SPC X Bar and R charts of a twelve-hour bottling shift below highlight problems.

统计过程控制图 可口可乐装瓶厂 X 条形图和 R 图

STATISTICAL PROCESS CONTROL CHARTS COCA-COLA BOTTLING PLANT X BAR AND R CHARTS

图片

X 的突然变化表明存在机械问题或新员工不熟悉规格。

The sudden change in X suggests that there is a mechanical problem or a new employee unfamiliar with the specifications.

图片

R 的上升可能表明机器可能正在恶化,机器控制可能正在振动并超出规格,或者工人可能会感到疲倦。

The rise in R may signal that a machine may be deteriorating, a machine control may be vibrating and slipping out of specification, or a worker could be getting tired.

 

 

克罗斯比和“质量是免费的”。菲利普·克罗斯比 (Philip Crosby) 声名鹊起是因为他宣称“质量是免费的”。他相信,如果制造商提高质量,“符合要求”,总生产成本就会下降。克罗斯比提出质量计划的最终目标是零缺陷。管理层必须齐心协力改变设计和生产方法以提高质量。在他看来,为提高质量而产生的任何成本都可以通过节省曾经用于纠正缺陷的材料和劳动力来支付。

Crosby and “Quality Is Free.” Philip Crosby’s claim to fame is the proclamation that “quality is free.” He believed that if manufacturers improved quality, “conforming to requirements,” total production costs would fall. Crosby proposed that the ultimate goal of a quality program is zero defects. Management must make a concerted effort to alter both the design and the production method to improve quality. In his opinion, any costs incurred in improving quality would be paid for by the saving of materials and labor that were once expended in correcting defects.

 

 

Genichi Taguchi 和劣质是一种犯罪。日本质量专家 Genichi Taguchi 是战后日本质量的主要支持者。他从精神的角度教导说“做劣质产品比做小偷还不如”。社会不会因小偷而失去任何东西,因为这是财富的再分配,但如果制造出劣质产品,每个人都会蒙受损失。

Genichi Taguchi and Poor Quality Is a Crime. Japanese quality expert Genichi Taguchi was a key quality proponent in postwar Japan. He taught from a spiritual perspective that “making poor products is worse than a thief.” Society does not lose anything from a thief as it is a redistribution of wealth, but everyone loses when poor-quality products are made.

 

 

热点话题

HOT TOPICS

了解了容量、日程安排、标准和控制的基础知识后,如果不提及商业媒体中不断出现的一些流行内容,本章将是不完整的。

With the basics of capacity, scheduling, standards, and control behind you, this chapter would not be complete without mentioning some of the trendy stuff that keeps popping up in the business press.

 

 

周期

CYCLE TIME

公司将产品创意转化为新产品或改进现有产品所需的时间称为引入周期。在底特律,新汽车的设计和改装可能需要两年或更长时间。一件新时尚商品从设计到商店交付通常需要六个月的时间。公司生产新产品以满足消费者需求的速度越快,公司在市场上的竞争力就越好。因此,快速的周期时间是一种竞争优势,也是 MBA 的热门话题。一些时髦的 MBA 称这场战斗是基于时间的竞争。

The time it takes for a company to convert a product idea into a new product or to improve an already existing product is called the cycle time of introduction. In Detroit the design and retooling for a new automobile may take two or more years. The turnaround for a new fashion item is often six months from design to store delivery. The faster a company can turn out a new product to meet consumer demand, the better the corporation will compete in the marketplace. Accordingly, rapid cycle times are a competitive advantage and a hot MBA topic. Some trendy MBAs call the battle to act faster time-based competition.

 

 

新技术与整合

NEW TECHNOLOGY AND INTEGRATION

除非能够有效地使用新技术,否则新技术本身不一定是好事。通用汽车在 1980 年代花费了数十亿美元用于机器人技术以实现其装配线的自动化。通过这种大手大脚的支出,通用汽车希望同时实现更高的质量和更低的成本。然而,通用汽车缺乏将新技术有效整合到其运营中的技术专长。

New technology in and of itself is not necessarily a good thing unless it can be used effectively. General Motors spent billions of dollars in the 1980s for robotics to automate its assembly lines. With this lavish spending, GM hoped to achieve both higher quality and lower costs. However, GM lacked the technical expertise to integrate the new technology effectively into its operations.

日本汽车公司使用传统的低技术工具和美国工人,在其美国装配厂达到了高生产率和质量标准,这让底特律感到懊恼。在本田的案例中,灵活的工作规则、生产工作团队和参与式管理的使用导致了底特律期望从其高科技投资中获得的生产力和质量收益。

Using traditional low-tech tooling and American workers, Japanese auto companies have met high productivity and quality standards in their U.S. assembly plants, to the chagrin of Detroit. In Honda’s case, the use of flexible work rules, production work teams, and participative management has resulted in the productivity and quality gains that Detroit expected from its high-tech investments.

大规模定制是Strategic Horizo​​ns集团于1992年率先提出的一个新概念。大规模定制基于将基于计算机的信息系统与新的运营模式(如灵活制造和准时制生产)结合在一起的想法。使用这些链接系统,公司可以以现代大规模生产的低成本为每个客户提供前工业时代手工艺时代有吸引力的、量身定制的好处。可以通过这种方式提供定制鞋、杂志、书籍和计算机等产品。

Mass customization was a new concept first promoted in 1992 by the Strategic Horizons group. Mass customization is based on the idea of tying computer-based information systems together with new modes of operation such as flexible manufacturing and just-in-time production. Using those linked systems, companies can provide each customer with the attractive, tailor-made benefits of the preindustrial craft era at the low cost of modern mass production. Products such as customized shoes, magazines, books, and computers can be provided in this manner.

 

 

信息技术(IT)

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (IT)

在许多排名前十的学校中,信息技术已被添加为一门单独的课程。这个话题在学术期刊、商业媒体和巡回演讲中获得了它自己的生命。随着计算机变得越来越强大,并通过云计算连接到互联网,它们已成为收集和整合有用信息以获得竞争优势的宝贵工具。

At many of the Top Ten schools, information technology has been added as a separate course. The topic has gained a life of its own in academic journals, the business press, and on the lecture circuit. As computers have become more powerful, and linked on the Internet via cloud computing, they have become a valuable tool in the gathering and integration of useful information for competitive advantages.

那些最了解客户偏好的公司比竞争对手更有优势。与大型计算机相连的销售登记册可以生成有关消费者需求和偏好的每日信息。梅西百货和沃尔玛等百货公司可以跟踪每天货架上服装的移动情况,以发现畅销的连衣裙或减少过时时装的订单。超市结账扫描仪也有同样的用途。由于货架空间有限,杂货店可以剔除滞销商品,并用更有前途的商品取而代之,以最大限度地利用过道的每一英尺。使用计算机数据库中的信息,可以针对最有可能的潜在客户进行直接邮件推销。

Those companies that know the most about their customers’ preferences have an advantage over their competitors. Sales registers linked to large computers can yield daily information on consumer demand and preferences. Department stores, such as Macy’s and Wal-Mart, can track daily rack movement of their apparel to spot a hit dress or to cut back on orders for a fashion dud. The supermarket checkout scanners serve the same purpose. With limited shelf space, grocers can cull slow-moving items and replace them with more promising ones to maximize every foot of the aisle. Using the information in computer databases, direct mail pitches can be targeted to the most likely prospects.

客户关系管理(CRM) 是当前业务自动化的热门话题。实施起来既复杂又昂贵,因此成为 MBA 顾问的沃土。从理论上讲,它可以自动化公司与客户关系的各个方面,从客户数据获取到客户保留。与客户的联系可以是面对面的、通过电子邮件、网络或电话。技术应用范围从一线客户数据收集到为客户和潜在客户提供更准确的实时数据来回答他们的问题。称为交互式语音应答 (IVR) 的自动化接线员可以向最称职的服务提供商提供信息或更好地路由呼叫。在公司内部,构建良好的数据库可以识别产品开发机会和当前产品的其他市场。可能成为 CRM 系统一部分的信息包含组织的所有部分,例如会计、生产、营销和财务。技术障碍通常使这些功能无法交互,导致实施成本高昂且困难重重。每个功能数据的安全性至关重要。

Customer relationship management (CRM) is the current hot topic in business automation. Complicated and expensive to implement, it is therefore fertile ground for MBA consultants. In theory it could automate every aspect of a company’s relationship with its customers from customer data acquisition to customer retention. The contact with the customer can be in person, via e-mail, on the Web, or on the phone. Technological applications range from frontline customer data collection to providing customers and potential customers more accurate real-time data to answer their questions. Automated operators, called interactive voice response (IVR), can provide information or better route calls to the most competent service provider. Within the corporation, a well-constructed database can identify opportunities for product development and additional markets for current products. The information that could potentially be part of a CRM system encompasses all parts of the organization, such as accounting, production, marketing, and finance. Technological barriers often keep these functions from interaction, making for an expensive and difficult implementation. Security of each function’s data is critical.

由于 CRM 实施的范围如此广泛,企业必须制定 CRM 战略,然后选择能够为初始 CRM 投资带来最大回报的初始 CRM 应用程序。

As the scope of a CRM implementation can be so comprehensive, corporations must create a CRM strategy and then select the initial CRM application that delivers the greatest return on initial CRM investment.

CRM 周期包含五个功能:

The CRM cycle encompasses five functions:

 

 

产品开发——研究、概念开发

Product Development—Research, concept development

销售——订购、交叉销售、销售线索、预测、投标和报价

Sales—Ordering, cross-selling, leads, forecasting, bidding and quoting

卓越的客户体验——个性化、服务、队列管理

Superior Customer Experience—Personalization, service, queue management

保留和赢回客户——忠诚度计划、外展工作

Retention and Win-Back Customers—Loyalty programs, outbound efforts

定位和营销——促销、定价、细分、行为建模、客户评分、分析

Targeting and Marketing—Promotions, pricing, segmentation, behavior modeling, customer scoring, analytics

 

 

根据 Gartner Group 的一项调查,55% 的 CRM 项目没有产生结果。随着 CRM 的年度支出接近 1000 亿美元,避免常见的错误非常重要:只关注技术、忽视客户、缺乏管理支持、僵化的业务流程、低估变更管理以及低估 CRM 的好处。

According to a Gartner Group survey, 55 percent of CRM projects do not produce results. With annual expenditures for CRM approaching $100 billion, it is important to avoid the common missteps: focusing solely on the technology, losing sight of the customer, lack of management support, inflexible business processes, underestimating change management, and undervaluing CRM’s benefits.

MBA 学生被教授了很多计算机术语,以便他们能够精通技术语言。MBA 讨厌被人用行话来形容。这是一个小词典样本。

MBA students are taught a lot of computer jargon so that they can be conversant in technospeak. MBAs hate to be outjargoned. Here’s a small lexicon sampling.

 

 

EDI——电子数据交换

EDI—Electronic data interchange

CAD/CAM —计算机辅助设计/计算机辅助制造

CAD/CAM—Computer-Aided Design / Computer-Aided Manufacturing

在线/实时——持续更新的计算机系统(机票预订系统)

Online / Real Time—Computer system with continuous updating (airline reservation systems)

POS — 销售点系统、收银机

POS—Point of Sale systems, checkout registers

硬件——计算机设备(IBM、Apple、EMC)

Hardware—Computer equipment (IBM, Apple, EMC)

软件——计算机程序

Software—Computer programs

应用程序——软件的同义词。

Applications—Synonym for software.

大型机——大型计算机

Mainframe—A big computer

微型计算机——台式或便携式计算机

Microcomputer—A desktop or portable computer

CPU——中央处理器,计算机的大脑

CPU—Central Processing Unit, a computer’s brain

LAN — 多台计算机组成的局域网

LAN—Local Area Network of many computers

AI——人工智能,像人一样思考的计算机

AI—Artificial Intelligence, computers that think like people

Intranet——专用网络系统

Intranet—Private network system

QR 码——快速响应方矩阵条码

QR Code—Quick Response square matrix bar code

RFID —射频识别库存控制标签

RFID—Radio Frequency Identification Inventory control tags

URL —统一资源定位器,网页地址

URL—Uniform Resource Locator, Web page address

HTTP —超文本传输​​协议,Internet 浏览器与服务器计算机通信的方式

HTTP—Hypertext Transport Protocol, the way Internet browsers communicate with server computers

HTML — 超文本标记语言,互联网网页的计算机语言

HTML—Hypertext Markup Language, the computer language of Internet Web pages

超文本——互连网页的系统

Hypertext—The system of interlinking Web pages

防火墙— 防止外部计算机用户未经授权访问的网络保护

Firewall—Network protection from unauthorized access from outside computer users

摩尔定律— 英特尔创始人戈登摩尔的想法是,处理能力每 18 个月翻一番,成本也会相应下降

Moore’s Law—Intel founder Gordon Moore’s idea that processing power doubles every eighteen months with proportionate decreases in cost

 

 

除了了解词汇外,MBA 成为知识渊博的计算机购买者也很重要。如果不能改变设备或程序以适应公司的需要,同样可以创造竞争优势的设备也可能成为劣势。因此,应在考虑公司的长期战略后购买计算机和其他技术。

Besides knowing the vocabulary, it is important that MBAs become knowledgeable computer buyers. The same equipment that can create a competitive advantage can also become a disadvantage if the equipment or the programming cannot be changed to suit the company’s needs. Therefore computers and other technology purchases should be made after considering the company’s long-range strategy.

 

 

运营总结

OPERATIONS WRAP-UP

在所有运营情况下,都适用一个包含五个问题的框架:容量、调度、库存、标准和控制。有了这个框架、一点历史、一些词汇、六个 M 和一些公式,顶级 MBA 学校将他们的学生推向商业世界。想象一下,您自己是一名顾问,负责审查 IBM 的交换机供应商 Onoff, Inc. 的运营情况。Onoff 一直缺乏现金。产品缺陷一直困扰着工厂,成本一直在上升。基于从本章中提取的 MBA 知识,您可以通过提出以下几个问题来开始您的调查:

In all operational situations a five-issue framework applies: capacity, scheduling, inventory, standards, and controls. With that framework, a little history, some vocabulary, six M’s, and a few formulas, the top MBA schools thrust their students into the business world. Imagine yourself as a consultant reviewing the operations of Onoff, Inc., a switch supplier to IBM. Onoff has been running short of cash. Product defects have plagued the factory, and costs have been rising. Based on the MBA knowledge culled from this chapter, you would start your investigation by asking a few questions:

 

 

工厂采用的管理方式是什么?X、Y 或 Z 理论?

What is the management style used in the plant? Theory X, Y, or Z?

工人是否经过适当培训?

Are the workers properly trained?

生产设备是否充足?高效的?

Is the production equipment adequate? Efficient?

是否存在材料供应商问题?质量,交货问题?

Are there material supplier problems? Quality, Delivery problems?

生产过程是否有效配置?考虑流程图。

Is the production process efficiently configured? Consider a flow diagram.

线性规划能否帮助开发更有利可图的产品组合?

Can linear programming help develop a more profitable product mix?

是否可以使用 MRP 系统来协调整个生产过程,或者使用 CRM 系统来管理客户关系?

Could an MRP system be used to coordinate the entire production process, or a CRM system be used to manage the customer relationship?

经济订单数量是否用于库存订购以最大限度地减少库存并释放现金?

Are Economic Order Quantities used for inventory ordering to minimize inventories and to free up cash?

是否有质量改进计划?SPC,质量圈?

Are there quality improvement programs in place? SPC, quality circles?

是否及时制定、监督和跟进了适当的标准?

Are adequate standards being set, monitored, and followed up timely?

 

 

这些是 MBA 脑子里闪过的问题类型。记住本章,您也可以提出正确的问题。

Those are the types of questions that run through an MBA’s head. With this chapter in mind, you too are able to ask the right questions.

 

 

关键运营要点

KEY OPERATIONS TAKEAWAYS

弗雷德里克·泰勒——“科学”生产管理之父(X 理论)

Frederick Taylor—Father of “scientific” production management (Theory X)

埃尔顿·梅奥——生产管理“人际关系运动”之父(Y理论)

Elton Mayo—Father of the “human relations movement” of production management (Theory Y)

解决运营问题——产能、调度、库存、标准、控制

Operational Problem Solving—Capacity, scheduling, inventory, standards, controls

六大能力——人力、机械、材料、资金、方法、信息

Six M’s of Capacity—Manpower, machinery, materials, money, methods, messages

流程图——绘制工作流程以发现提高效率的机会

Flow Diagramming—Mapping out work flows to spot efficiency opportunities

线性规划——在容量受限的情况下确定最优解的计算机方法

Linear Programming—Computer method of determining the optimal solutions in situations with constrained capacity

甘特图——一个简单的项目计划工具

Gantt Chart—A simple project-scheduling tool

关键路径法(CPM) ——复杂的项目调度方法

Critical Path Method (CPM)—Sophisticated scheduling method for projects

排队论——提高排队效率的数学工具

Queuing Theory—Mathematical tool to make waiting lines more efficient

按生产阶段划分的库存类型——原材料、在制品、产成品

Inventory Types by Stage of Production—Raw materials, work in process, finished goods

按持有原因划分的库存类型——管道、周期、安全、预期、投机

Inventory Types by Reason for Holding—Pipeline, cycle, safety, anticipatory, speculative

经济订货量 (EOQ) — 最小化库存成本的数学公式

Economic Order Quantity (EOQ)—Mathematical formula to minimize inventory costs

物料需求计划 (MRP) — 复杂的运营库存和产能管理工具

Material Requirements Planning (MRP)—Sophisticated operational inventory and capacity management tool

质量大师——Joseph Juran、W. Edwards Deming 和 Philip Crosby

Quality Gurus—Joseph Juran, W. Edwards Deming, and Philip Crosby

统计过程控制(SPC) ——统计质量控制技术

Statistical Process Control (SPC)—Statistical quality-control technique

客户关系管理 (CRM) — 改善和管理与客户的整个关系的系统

Customer Relationship Management (CRM)—A system of improving and managing the entire relationship with the customer

第八天

Day 8

经济学

ECONOMICS

经济学专题

Economics Topics

供需

Supply and Demand

微观经济学

Microeconomics

机会成本

Opportunity Costs

边际效用

Marginal Utility

弹性

Elasticity

市场结构

Market Structures

宏观经济学

Macroeconomics

凯恩斯主义和货币主义理论

Keynesian and Monetarist Theory

国民生产总值核算

Gross National Product Accounting

国际经济学

International Economics

 

 

就像古代的国王放弃他们的占星家一样,大企业正在解雇其经济占卜者。他们的观星活动被证明既有趣又有趣——但不是很有用。

Like kings of old dispensing with their astrologers, big business is sacking its economic soothsayers. Their stargazing proved entertaining and interesting—but not very useful.

——“沉闷科学中的沉闷日子”,福布斯

—“Dreary Days in the Dismal Science,” Forbes

这听起来像是一个逃学的好借口,但研究这门学科是有价值的。经济学无法提供一幅清晰的图景,但它可以为全球商业活动背后的“无形力量”提供一些见解。与所有其他 MBA 科目一样,对这个科目的一些熟悉提供了一个机会,让办公室里的人对我们有多么聪明印象深刻!

That may sound like a good excuse to play hooky on the day for economics, yet there is value in studying the subject. Economics cannot provide a clear picture, but it can supply some insights into the “invisible forces” that underlie the movement of business around the world. As in the case of all other MBA subjects, some familiarity with this subject provides the chance to impress people at the office with how smart we are!

图片

“我不知道这意味着什么,但我喜欢这个动作。”

“I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT IT MEANS BUT I LOVE THE ACTION.”

 

 

像芝加哥和麻省理工学院这样的学校非常重视学习经典经济学教科书,但大多数其他学校更多地在应用基础上对待经济学。哈佛大学和达顿大学已将经济学整合到他们的国际研究课程中。

Schools like Chicago and MIT place a great deal of emphasis on learning classical textbook economics, but most others treat economics a bit more on an applied basis. Harvard and Darden have integrated economics into their international studies courses.

经济学只能夸耀几个基本概念。那么,如何解释无数试图解释商业周期繁荣与萧条的复杂学术文献呢?就像圣杯一样,完美的经济模型是一个难以捉摸的目标,它吸引着私营企业中许多热心的教授和成千上万的博士。在过去的一百年里,他们留下了数以千计的神奇公式、图表和图表。MBA 应该着眼于理解经济学的基础知识和词汇,然后继续前进,把风车理论留给理论堂吉诃德去追逐。考虑到这一点,本章坚持基础知识。它没有详述复杂的公式和困难的概念,您可能会跳过这些,没有实际用处,并且很快就会忘记。

Economics can boast about only a few basic concepts. So how does one explain the endless volumes of complex academic literature that try to explain the booms and busts of business cycles? Like the Holy Grail, the perfect economic model is an elusive target that seduces many zealous professors and thousands of Ph.D.’s in private industry. In their wake over the past hundred years they have left thousands of magic formulas, graphs, and charts. An MBA should aim at understanding the fundamentals and the vocabulary of economics, then move on and leave the windmill theories for theoretical Don Quixotes to chase after. With that in mind, this chapter sticks to the basics. It does not dwell on complicated formulas and difficult concepts that you would probably skip over, have no real use for, and forget in short order anyway.

经济学研究社会如何将地球上的有限资源分配给人类永不满足的胃口。供给和需求是起作用的力量。在所谓的均衡(E) 处,市场价格允许供应量等于需求量。供应商愿意卖,消费者愿意买。供给等于价格的需求。简而言之,这是所有经济理论的基础。

Economics studies how society allocates the limited resources of the earth to the insatiable appetites of humans. Supply and demand are the forces at work. At what is referred to as equilibrium (E), the market price allows the quantity supplied to equal the quantity demanded. Suppliers are willing to sell, and consumers are willing to buy. Supply equals demand for a price. That, in a nutshell, is the basis of all economic theory.

例如,让我们看一下当地的酒吧 Porth Tavern,它自己酿造啤酒 Duff 啤酒。想象一下,您是 Heineken 的常客,而酒吧正在以 1 美元的价格特价出售 Duff 啤酒。店主手头有 10 桶,但他觉得如果按通常每杯 4 美元的价格收费,他可能只能卖一两桶。您喜欢 Heineken,但只要一美元,您就决定尝试更便宜的啤酒。在这里,在这个酒吧里,经济学的“看不见的手”在起作用。以“合适”的价格,有对十桶的需求。该图显示,随着每杯价格的上涨,啤酒厂会愿意生产更多,但人们的购买意愿会降低。

For example, let’s take a look at the local pub, Porth Tavern, which brews its own beer, Duff beer. Imagine you are a Heineken drinker and the bar is running a $1 special on mugs of Duff. The owner has ten kegs on hand, but feels if he were to charge the usual $4 per mug, he might only be able to sell one or two kegs. You like Heineken, but at a dollar, you decide to try the much cheaper brew. Here, in this bar, the “invisible hand” of economics is at work. At the “right” price, there is a demand for the ten kegs. The graph shows that as the price per mug increases, the brewery would be willing to produce more, but people would be less willing to buy.

啤酒的供应和需求

SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR BEER

图片

从这个简单的关系推广到整个经济,在均衡价格和经济产出水平下,总供给 (AS) 等于总需求 (AD)。该图类似于啤酒图,具有相同的关系,但测量的元素构成了更严肃的 MBA 科目。

Generalizing from this simple relationship to an entire economy, aggregate supply (AS) equals aggregate demand (AD) at an equilibrium price and level of economic output. The graph is similar to the beer graph, the same relationship holds, but the elements measured constitute a much more serious MBA subject.

经济的供给和需求

SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR AN ECONOMY

图片

经济学层面:微观还是宏观?

LEVEL OF ECONOMICS: MICRO OR MACRO?

学生可以学习微观经济学宏观经济学。微观经济学研究个人、家庭、公司或行业的供求方程。喜力与达夫的竞争是微观经济斗争的一个例子。另一方面,宏观经济学关注城市、国家或世界的经济,如第二张图所示。简而言之,“微观”经济学处理的是“小的”具体情况;“宏观”经济学着眼于整个经济学的“大”图景。

Students can study either microeconomics or macroeconomics. Microeconomics deals with the supply and demand equation of individuals, families, companies, or industries. The Heineken versus Duff competition was an example of a microeconomic battle. Macroeconomics, on the other hand, concerns itself with the economies of cities, countries, or the world as shown in the second graph. Simply put, “micro” economics deals with “small,” specific situations; “macro” economics looks at the “big” picture of entire economics.

 

 

微观经济学

MICROECONOMICS

微观经济学不如宏观经济学那么迷人,但更实用一些。由于我们大多数人不太可能对整个经济产生宏观影响,因此我们最好专注于构成微观经济知识的几个基本概念。

Microeconomics is less glamorous than macroeconomics but is a little more practical. Since most of us are not likely to have a macro-effect on a whole economy, it is better if we concentrate on the few basic concepts that make up microeconomic knowledge.

 

 

机会成本

OPPORTUNITY COSTS

因为我们对商品和服务的胃口是无法满足的,所以必须做出决定来确定如何分配有限的资源。大多数情况下,商品或服务产量的增加需要付出成本或牺牲。经济学家称这些成本为机会成本。

Because our appetites for goods and services are insatiable, decisions have to be made to determine how to allocate limited resources. Most often, the increase in production of a good or service requires that a cost or sacrifice be incurred. Economists call these costs opportunity costs.

例如,在 1990 年代,对哈雷戴维森摩托车的需求使该公司的工厂以 100% 的产能运转。哈雷控制了 60% 的高价大型自行车市场,管理层被迫决定如何最好地分配有限的产能以满足需求。他们选择生产几种型号在美国和国外销售。结果,Harley-Davidson 承担了巨大的机会成本,因为该公司决定不将其全部产能投入到其最昂贵和最有利可图的车型上以出口到日本。如果哈雷试图将短期利润最大化,它就会冒着疏远国内忠实骑手市场的风险——正是这个群体帮助创造了日本人正在购买的哈雷神秘感。因此,机会成本是选择的成本,当产出、时间、

For example, in the 1990s the demand for Harley-Davidson motorcycles had the company’s factories operating at 100 percent of capacity. Harley controlled 60 percent of the big-ticket, big-bike market, and management was forced to decide how best to allocate limited production capacity to satisfy demand. They chose to produce several models for sale in the United States and abroad. As a result, Harley-Davidson incurred a significant opportunity cost because the company decided not to devote its entire capacity to its most expensive and profitable models for export to Japan. Had Harley tried to maximize short-term profits, it would have risked alienating the domestic market of devoted bikers—the very group that helped create the Harley mystique that the Japanese are buying. Opportunity cost, therefore, is the cost of choice, when output, time, and money are limited.

 

 

边际收入和成本

MARGINAL REVENUE AND COST

与机会成本密切相关的一个概念是边际收益和边际成本。公司有动力通过最大化收入和最小化成本来最大化总利润。如果一家企业有机会以盈利的方式出售哪怕是一个额外的单位,它就应该生产它。销售的边际收益(MR) 应超过生产的边际成本(MC)。

A concept closely associated with opportunity cost is marginal revenue and marginal cost. Companies are motivated to maximize total profits by maximizing revenues and minimizing costs. If a business has the opportunity to sell even a single additional unit at a profit, it should produce it. The marginal revenue (MR) from the sale should exceed the marginal cost (MC) to produce.

企业应该继续生产,直到他们的 MR 等于他们的 MC。在那个均衡点,下一个售出单位的边际利润将为零。桌上没有留下任何利润。超过这个水平,每增加一个单位的边际收益就会减少,而边际成本就会增加。经验告诉我们,企业试图推向市场的单位越多,市场愿意为这些商品支付的费用就越少。生产一个额外单位的成本是最低的。但是,如果没有过剩产能并且公司想要生产更多单位,则需要雇用新工人、购买新设备以及租用或建造更大的工厂。因此,一旦工厂达到产能,多生产一个单位的边际成本就会增加,超过生产最后一个单位的成本。

Enterprises should continue to produce until their MR equals their MC. At that point of equilibrium the marginal profit on the next unit sold will equal zero. No profits are left on the table. Past that level, the marginal revenue of each additional unit sold decreases and the marginal cost increases. Experience tells us that the more units businesses try to push on the market, the less the market is willing to pay for these goods. The cost of producing one additional unit is minimal. But if there is no excess capacity and a company wants to produce more units, new workers will need to be hired, new equipment purchased, and a larger factory leased or built. Therefore, once a factory reaches capacity, the marginal cost of producing one additional unit increases beyond the cost of the last unit produced.

以养牛场主 Bud Montana 为例,给牛群增加一头阉牛的边际成本是最小的。栅栏仍需修补,牧场仍需维护。由于他是一个理性的决策者,Bud 会增加牛只的数量,这样多卖一头牛的边际收益将弥补饲养这头牛的边际成本(MR = MC)。如果增加一单位的成本变得高于当前市场价格,那么 Bud Montana 将停止向他的牛群中添加阉牛。

In the case of a cattle rancher, Bud Montana, the marginal cost of adding a steer to the herd is minimal. Fences still have to be mended and the pasture maintained. Since he is a rational decision maker, Bud will add cattle to the point that the marginal revenue from the sale of an additional steer will cover these marginal costs of raising this steer (MR = MC). If the cost of raising one additional unit becomes higher than the current market price, then Bud Montana will stop adding steers to his herd.

边际收入和成本均衡

MARGINAL REVENUE AND COST EQUILIBRIUM

图片

您可能想知道为什么需求曲线是平坦的而不是像其他需求曲线那样向下倾斜。这是因为牛肉的价格是在竞争性拍卖中确定的。巴德可能给市场带来的额外几头牛不会影响由成千上万的牧场主和肉类加工商的产量决定的价格。如果巴德在牛肉市场上占有一席之地,或者垄断,那么大概他总是会在 MR = MC的点生产和销售。在那种情况下,他的边际收益曲线将向右下方倾斜,就像啤酒和宏观经济插图中显示的标准需求曲线一样。

You might wonder why the demand curve is flat rather than downward sloping, as in the case of other demand curves. It is because the price of beef is determined in a competitive auction. The few additional head of cattle that Bud might bring to the market will not affect the price that is determined by the output of thousands of ranchers and meat processors. If Bud had a corner on the beef market, or a monopoly, then presumably he would always produce and sell at the point where MR = MC. In that case, his marginal revenue curve would slope downward to the right as in the instance of the standard demand curve shown in the beer and macroeconomic illustrations.

边际成本和收入概念也适用于面临大量特殊订单的饼干工厂经理。想象自己穿着他或她的围裙。客户希望以每打 1.00 美元的价格购买在教堂集市上出售的 100 打。你有一些多余的能力,所以你去找你的会计师,问你满足这个订单的成本是多少。她声称每打的成本为 1.45 美元。她给你这个细分作为证据:

The marginal cost and revenue concepts would also hold true for a cookie factory manager faced with a large special order. Imagine yourself in his or her apron. The customer wants to pay $1.00 per dozen for 100 dozens to be sold at a church fair. You have some excess capacity and so you go to your accountant and ask what your cost is to satisfy this order. She asserts that it would cost $1.45 per dozen. She gives you this breakdown as proof:

图片

从这些信息中可以看出,运行自动化饼干生产线的唯一边际成本是额外的面糊。无论如何,机器运营员都会在那里,大烤箱无论如何都会开着。工厂将继续需要常规维护。

From that information you can see that the only marginal cost of running the automated cookie production line is the extra batter. The machine operator would be there anyway, and the large oven would be on anyhow. The factory would continue to require the usual maintenance.

厂长应该欢迎订单,因为他可以赚取边际利润。拒绝订单的唯一原因是,如果有消息传给普通客户,您以 1.00 美元的价格出售了 2.00 美元的饼干。问题是,如果每个人都支付每打 1.00 美元的特价,就没有利润来支付固定成本,例如运营员的工资和工厂的运营成本。

The factory manager should welcome the order because he can make a marginal profit. The only reason to reject the order would be if word were to get out to regular customers that you sold the $2.00 cookies for $1.00. The rub is that if everyone paid the $1.00 special price per dozen, there would be no profits to pay for the fixed costs, such as the operator’s salary and the cost of running the factory.

如牛肉和饼干的例子所示,“边际”成本和收入对于做出“边际”定价和生产决策至关重要。然而,要评估整个企业的盈利能力,而不是单笔交易,收入必须超过成本才能实现公司利润的底线。

As shown in the example of steers and cookies, “marginal” costs and revenues are critical in making “marginal” pricing and production decisions. However, to evaluate profitability of an entire business, rather than one transaction, total revenue must exceed total costs to make a bottom-line company profit.

 

 

边际效用

MARGINAL UTILITY

效用是一个术语,用于描述产品对消费者的价值。边际效用(MU) 是指拥有额外单位产品的有用性或效用。在某个时候,买家完全满意,额外的单位没有价值。回到啤酒的例子,假设你想忘记你遇到的任何麻烦,你在 Porth Tavern 点了一杯啤酒。第二杯啤酒会很受欢迎,而且实际上具有很大的边际效用。五小时后,你喝了十二杯啤酒,打台球,跳舞,忘记了你的烦恼。在这一点上,多喝一瓶啤酒就没有什么价值了。第十三瓶啤酒的边际效用可以忽略不计。

Utility is a term used to describe the value of a product to a consumer. Marginal utility (MU) means the usefulness or utility of having an additional unit of a product. At some point a buyer is fully satisfied, and an additional unit is of no value. Going back to the beer example, suppose you are looking to forget whatever troubles you have and you order one beer at Porth Tavern. A second beer would be welcome and would in fact be of great marginal utility. Five hours later you’ve had twelve beers, played pool, danced, and forgotten your troubles. At this point, an extra beer would be of little value. The marginal utility of the thirteenth beer is negligible.

 

 

需求价格弹性

PRICE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND

在供求关系的第一个例子中,喜力啤酒的饮用者愿意以一定的价格购买达夫啤酒。当价格降低时,需求增加。相反,如果价格更高,需求就会下降。购买者对价格变化的反应或敏感性称为弹性。

In the first illustration of supply and demand, Heineken drinkers were willing to buy Duff beer at a price. When the price was lowered, demand increased. Conversely, if the price had been higher, demand would have fallen. Buyers’ responsiveness or sensitivity to changes in price is called elasticity.

据报道,需求弹性是我的 MBA 校友朋友使用过的为数不多的经济理论之一。例如,Procter & Gamble 的品牌经理想知道价格变化将如何影响对其品牌肥皂的需求。福特汽车公司的生产领班想知道价格变化将如何影响他们的生产要求。

Elasticity of demand is one of the few economic theories that my MBA alumni friends have reportedly used. Brand managers at Procter & Gamble, for example, want to know how a price change will affect demand for their brand of soap. Production foremen at Ford Motor Company want to know how price changes will affect their production requirements.

如果消费者对价格变化敏感,则他们的需求被称为富有弹性。想一想 Taco Bell 快餐爱好者的购买习惯。1988 年,Taco Bell 通过推出“超值餐”来降低价格。消费者通过增加购买量做出强烈反应。炸玉米饼的价格是五十九美分,只有五十九美分会妨碍第三或第四份。竞争对手紧随其后。麦当劳的打包交易允许围栏保姆订购大薯条、大杯可乐和苹果派以及他们的巨无霸汉堡,比单独订购每件商品节省 20 到 50 美分。

If consumers are sensitive to price changes, their demand is termed elastic. Consider the fast-food junkies’ buying habits at Taco Bell. In 1988, Taco Bell lowered its prices by introducing “value meals.” Consumers responded strongly by increasing their purchases. With tacos priced at fifty-nine cents, only fifty-nine cents stood in the way of having a third or fourth helping. Competitors followed. Package deals at McDonald’s gave permission to fence-sitters to order the large fries, large Coke, and apple pie with their Big Macs at savings of twenty to fifty cents over ordering each item separately.

当消费者对价格不敏感时,经济学家称他们的需求缺乏弹性。他们的购买行为不会随着价格的变化而改变。医疗服务或香烟等必需品属于无弹性类别。当患者因阑尾炎发作而感到疼痛时,他们会支付外科医生想要的任何费用。铁杆尼古丁成瘾者以同样的方式接受卷烟价格上涨。

When consumers are not sensitive to prices, economists call their demand inelastic. Their purchasing behavior does not change with price changes. Necessities such as medical services or cigarettes fall into the inelastic category. When patients are in pain because of an appendicitis attack, they pay whatever the surgeon wants. Hard-core nicotine addicts accept cigarette price increases in the same way.

正如您现在所看到的,消费者对产品需求的价格弹性是为产品定价时需要考虑的重要因素。为了量化弹性,使用描述性弹性系数

As you can see by now, the price elasticity of consumer demand for product is important to consider when pricing a product. To quantify elasticity, a descriptive elasticity coefficient is used:

图片

弹性系数越高,价格弹性越大。等于或大于 1 的系数被认为是有弹性的。例如,研究人员计算出餐厅用餐的弹性为 2,医疗服务的弹性为 0.31。通常需要大量研究来确定弹性,但当然可以以牺牲准确性为代价来简化过程。管理人员必须分析历史数据,并尝试找出可能导致需求变化的非价格影响因素,例如天气和竞争。

The higher the elasticity coefficient, the higher the price elasticity. A coefficient equal to or greater than 1 is considered elastic. For example, researchers have calculated elasticities for restaurant meals at 2 and medical services at .31. Usually a great deal of research is necessary to determine elasticity, but of course the process may be simplified at the expense of accuracy. Managers must analyze historical data and also try to sort out the nonprice influences that may have caused a demand change, such as weather and competition.

弹性的另一个重要方面是它在所有价格水平上都不是恒定的。在不同的价格水平上,弹性可能会有所不同。这种现象在一个假设的表格中得到了说明,该表格显示了人们如何响应特定屠夫出售的汉堡肉的价格变化。

Another important aspect of elasticity is that it is not constant at all price levels. At different price levels elasticity may vary. This phenomenon is illustrated in a hypothetical table showing how people responded to price changes of hamburger meat sold by a particular butcher.

汉堡包的需求弹性

(假设的)

ELASTICITY OF DEMAND FOR HAMBURGER

(HYPOTHETICAL)

图片

如果您是一名屠夫,此信息将证实您的预期。在较低的价格水平上,大多数家庭都能负担得起,价格的变化不会促使房子的厨师转向其他肉类。然而,当价格较高时,在每磅 2 到 5 美元的范围内,汉堡包就失去了广泛的吸引力。购物者通过选择热狗甚至意大利面而不是牛肉来展示弹性需求。那些拥有无限现金的人往往更缺乏价格弹性,并且不顾价格购买。这就是为什么“需求量”的弹性不同于“总收入”的弹性。愿意以更高价格购买的铁杆牛肉食用者弥补了更高销量带来的收入损失。

If you were a butcher, this information would confirm what you might expect. At lower price levels, affordable to most families, changes in prices do not prompt the cook of the house to switch to other meats. However, when prices are higher, in the $2 to $5 range per pound, hamburger loses its broad appeal. Shoppers demonstrate elastic demand by selecting hot dogs or even pasta instead of beef. Those with unlimited cash tend to be more price inelastic and buy regardless of the price. That is why the elasticity of “quantity demanded” differs from the elasticity of “total revenue.” The die-hard beef eaters who are willing to buy at higher prices make up for the lost revenue of higher sales volumes.

同样的需求弹性概念可以应用于经济的供给侧,但方向相反。更高的价格鼓励更多的生产,同时抑制更多的消费。较低的价格会抑制生产,但会鼓励更多的消费。当供给量和需求量以市场价格相遇时,市场达到均衡。

The same concept of elasticity of demand can be applied to the supply side of the economy, but in the opposite direction. Higher prices encourage more production while simultaneously discouraging more consumption. Lower prices discourage production but encourage more consumption. At the point that the quantity supplied and the quantity demanded meet at a market price, the market reaches equilibrium.

 

 

具有竞争力的市场结构

COMPETITIVE MARKET STRUCTURES

除了需求弹性之外,竞争环境还会驱动供应、需求和价格。给定市场的竞争越激烈,市场价格对供求关系的变化就越敏感。在黄金市场上,全球有许多供应商,商品交易所的价格每天都在波动。Bud Montana 经营的牛肉市场也是如此。现在您了解了所涉及的原理,让我们来看看四种基本的市场结构。

In addition to elasticity of demand, the competitive environment drives supply, demand, and prices. The greater the competition in a given market, the more sensitive the market price is to changes in supply and demand. In the gold market, there are many suppliers worldwide and the price fluctuates daily on commodity exchanges. The same holds true in the beef market in which Bud Montana operates. Now that you understand the principle involved, let’s look at the four basic market structures.

 

 

纯垄断。如果只有一个卖家拥有独特的产品,则称该卖家具有纯粹垄断。国家篮球协会控制着职业篮球。电力公司是另一个垄断企业。他们是“价格制定者”,因为他们可以设定体育场门票和水电费的价格。当一家制药公司拥有独家专利时,就像葛兰素史克公司为其艾滋病药物 AZT 所做的那样,它可以为生产成本极低的治疗药物收取数千​​美元的费用。政府监管通常是对贪婪的唯一约束。对于存在的垄断,不应该有任何消费者可以转换的相近替代品。

Pure Monopoly. If there is only one seller with a unique product, then the seller is said to have a pure monopoly. The National Basketball Association controls professional basketball. Electric utilities are another monopoly. They are “price makers” because they can set the price of stadium tickets and of your utilities. And when a pharmaceutical company holds an exclusive patent, as GlaxoSmithKline does for its AIDS drug AZT, it can charge thousands of dollars for treatments that cost little to produce. Government regulation is usually the only restraint on greed. For a monopoly to exist there shouldn’t be any close substitutes to which consumers can switch.

 

 

寡头垄断。当一种产品只有少数供应商且几乎没有替代品时,就会出现寡头垄断。只有少数竞争者,如果生产者选择不在价格上竞争,价格可以维持在高水平。否则,市场参与者可以进行价格战,从而压低价格。航空公司是这两种情况的一个很好的例子。偶尔在繁忙的路线上会爆发价格战,但一旦确定没有人能获胜,寡头垄断者就会将价格推回更高的水平。

Oligopoly. When there are only a few suppliers for a product for which there are few substitutes, then what prevails is an oligopoly. With only a few competitors, prices can be maintained at high levels if the producers choose not to compete on price. If not, the market players can engage in price wars that can push prices down. Airlines are a good example of both of these conditions. Occasionally on busy routes price wars break out, but once it becomes clear that nobody can win, oligopolists return prices to higher levels.

 

 

垄断竞争。在一个有许多生产者的产品可以差异化的市场上,垄断竞争就会发生。复印店以此闻名。副本可能相同,但服务不同。例如,FedEx Kinko 的复印中心以每份 11 美分的价格出售复印件,而一些经济商店每份仅收取 5 美分。FedEx Kinko's 以 24 小时营业、干净的店面提供称职和友好的服务来证明较高的价格是合理的。价格较低的商店提供基本服务。但折扣店的存在限制了整个市场的复制价格。如果 FedEx Kinko's 的价格是经济商店的两到三倍,它很可能会经历低迷。

Monopolistic Competition. In a market where there are many producers with products that can be differentiated, monopolistic competition can occur. Copy stores are known for this. The copies may be the same, but the service varies. FedEx Kinko’s copy centers, for example, sell copies for eleven cents each, while some economy shops charge only five cents a copy. FedEx Kinko’s justifies the higher price by being open twenty-four hours, and offering competent and friendly service in clean stores. The lower-priced shops provide bare-bones service. But the existence of discounters places a lid on copy prices for the whole market. FedEx Kinko’s would most likely experience a downturn if its prices were two or three times those of economy shops.

 

 

纯粹的竞争。纯竞争中,有许多竞争者销售类似的、可替代的产品。营销不影响生产者可以获得的价格。黄金、白银、小麦和玉米属于此类。许多供应商和买家在商品交易所竞争,价格由供求市场力量决定。生产者是市场的“价格接受者”,通过竞标确定价格。

Pure Competition. In pure competition there are many competitors selling a similar, substitutable product. Marketing does not affect the price producers can get. Gold, silver, wheat, and corn are products that fit into this category. Many suppliers and buyers compete on commodity exchanges, and the prices are determined by the market forces of supply and demand. The producers are “price takers” from the market that arrives at prices by competitive bidding.

 

 

总而言之,当您考虑一个行业、一家公司或个人的购买行为的特定市场条件时,微观经济学理论将起主导作用。行业根据竞争市场结构以均衡价格生产满足需求的数量。公司生产最后一单位产品的边际收益等于边际成本的数量。个人根据他们的需求弹性进行购买。

In summary, when you are thinking about the specific market conditions of an industry, a company, or the buying behavior of individuals, microeconomic theory governs. Industries produce the quantity that meets demand at an equilibrium price based on the competitive market structure. Companies produce the quantity at which the marginal revenue of the last unit produced equals the marginal cost. Individuals purchase based on their elasticity of demand.

 

 

宏观经济学

MACROECONOMICS

MBA 学习宏观经济学,以了解塑造其公司运营所在的更大经济体的力量。经济衰退要来了吗?利率在上升吗?通货膨胀是威胁吗?这些都是企业主需要提出和考虑的合理问题。尽管理论可能无法为您提供答案,但了解宏观经济学的基本原理可能会为您提供对未来做出明智猜测的框架。

MBAs study macroeconomics to understand the forces that shape the larger economy in which their companies operate. Is a recession coming? Are interest rates heading up? Is inflation a threat? Those are legitimate questions that business owners need to ask and consider. Even though theories may not offer you the answers, knowing the fundamental principles of macroeconomics may provide the framework within which to make intelligent guesses about the future.

 

 

经济运行方式之争:凯恩斯与弗里德曼

THE BATTLE OVER HOW THE ECONOMY WORKS: KEYNES VERSUS FRIEDMAN

经济学家很少就驱动经济的因素达成一致。正如政治上有民主党人和共和党人一样,经济学上也有凯恩斯主义者和货币主义者。凯恩斯主义者认为,政府干预可以显着改善经济运行。另一方面,货币主义者认为,在政府干预最少的情况下,市场运作最好。

Economists rarely agree on what drives the economy. Just as there are Democrats and Republicans in politics, there are Keynesians and monetarists in economics. Keynesians hold that government intervention can significantly improve the operation of the economy. On the other hand, monetarists believe that markets work best if left alone with minimal government interference.

这些对立的经济阵营的创始人深受他们所处时代的影响。剑桥大学的约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯 (John Maynard Keynes ) 在 1930 年代全球大萧条的混乱中撰写了《就业、利息和货币通论》( The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money , 1936),这是现代凯恩斯主义宏观经济学的基石。凯恩斯认为世界领导人的放任政策是失败的,并认为明智和及时的政府干预可以对经济产生稳定和有益的影响。

The fathers of these opposing economic camps were profoundly influenced by the times in which they lived. John Maynard Keynes of Cambridge wrote The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936), the cornerstone of modern Keynesian macroeconomics, in the midst of the chaos of the worldwide Great Depression of the 1930s. Keynes saw the hands-off policies of world leaders as a failure and felt that judicious and timely government intervention could have a stabilizing and beneficial effect on the economy.

在第二次世界大战后的繁荣时期,芝加哥大学的米尔顿弗里德曼成为货币主义经济学观点的有力倡导者。他就是断言企业的唯一功能是盈利的人(见道德章节)。在见证了艾森豪威尔和肯尼迪时代的繁荣之后,他相信市场具有自我治愈的力量。弗里德曼坚信政府应该不干预经济。在所得税政策、农业补贴、公共住房等各种领域,他认为政府监管弊大于利。

In the boom years following World War II, Milton Friedman of the University of Chicago became a forceful advocate of the monetarist view of economics. He is the same person who asserts that a business’s sole function is to make profits (see the ethics chapter). Having witnessed the prosperity of the Eisenhower and Kennedy years, he believed in the power of the market to heal itself. Friedman was convinced that government ought to keep its hands off the economy. In areas as varied as income tax policy, agricultural subsidies, public housing, and others, he thought governmental regulation had done more harm than good.

善与恶政府的宏观经济辩论在 MBA 学校占据了过多的时间。大多数保守的共和党 MBA 多数人经常与少数但直言不讳的民主党人发生冲突。使用下表作为指导,我相信如果您愿意,您可以以真正的 MBA 形式争论双方!

The macroeconomic debate of good-versus-evil government occupies an inordinate amount of time at MBA schools. The mostly conservative Republican MBA majority frequently clashes with a small but vocal Democratic minority. Using the following chart as a guide, I feel confident you can argue both sides if you wish to, in true MBA form!

 

 

凯恩斯主义思想:没有政府干预的自由企业不会导致充分就业。

KEYNESIAN THOUGHT: Free enterprise without government intervention does not cause full employment.

货币主义者的想法:即使以失业为代价,从长远来看,自由市场经济学也是最好的。

MONETARIST THOUGHT: Free market economics are best in the long run even at the cost of unemployment.

 

 

凯恩斯主义思想:失业是需要解决的大问题。

KEYNESIAN THOUGHT: Unemployment is the big problem that needs a solution.

货币主义者的思想:通货膨胀是最大的罪恶;这是对每个人的税收。

MONETARIST THOUGHT: Inflation is the big evil; it is a tax on everyone.

 

 

凯恩斯主义思想:通过政府支出和货币政策,政府应该平滑商业周期。

KEYNESIAN THOUGHT: With government spending and monetary policy, government should smooth out the business cycles.

货币主义者的想法:从长远来看,政府的修修补补会使经济变得更糟。

MONETARIST THOUGHT: Government tinkering makes the economy worse off in the long run.

 

 

凯恩斯主义思想:可获得足够的信息来采取政府行动。

KEYNESIAN THOUGHT: Adequate information is available to take government action.

货币主义者的想法:可用的经济数据通常不准确,而且为时已晚,无法进行有用的政府干预。

MONETARIST THOUGHT: Available economic data are usually inaccurate and too late for useful government intervention.

 

 

凯恩斯主义思想:政府支出有助于刺激有效的经济增长。

KEYNESIAN THOUGHT: Government spending can help spur efficient economic growth.

货币主义者的想法:政府支出挤出了有效的私人活动。

MONETARIST THOUGHT: Government spending crowds out efficient private activity.

 

 

这张相当简单的表格涵盖了主要的宏观经济理论论点。

This rather simplistic table covers the major theoretical macroeconomic arguments.

 

 

国民生产总值、通货膨胀和凯恩斯主义观点

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT, INFLATION, AND THE KEYNESIAN VIEW

宏观经济学的核心是了解一个国家的国民生产总值 (GNP)。GNP 是一个经济体一年内生产的所有最终产品和服务的总市场价值。GNP 的变化被用作衡量经济健康状况的指标。限定词“决赛”很重要。没有重复计算。例如,汽车是许多部件的总和。当汽车完成时,钢材仅在生产中计算一次。

The centerpiece of macroeconomics is understanding a nation’s gross national product (GNP). GNP is the total market value of all final goods and services produced by an economy in a year. Changes in GNP are used as a measure of the health of an economy. The qualifier “final” is important. There is no double counting. An automobile, for example, is the sum of many components. Steel is counted in production only once, when the car is finished.

由于价格每年都在变化,经济学家必须调整 GNP 以进行逐年比较。一磅钢的成本通常逐年增加。如果价格水平上升,则称为通货膨胀。通货膨胀调整后的国民生产总值称为实际国民生产总值。如果不进行调整,即使经济生产了相同数量的商品和服务,所谓的名义国民生产总值也可能显示美元增长。

Because prices change from year to year, economists must adjust GNP for year-to-year comparisons. The cost of a pound of steel usually increases from year to year. If price levels rise, it is called inflation. GNP adjusted for inflation is called real GNP. If left unadjusted, the so-called nominal GNP could show dollar growth, even if the economy produced the same amount of goods and services.

为了将未经调整的名义 GNP 转换为实际 GNP,经济学家使用GNP 平减指数。以 2005 年为基准年,国民生产总值平减指数等于 100。1950 年它等于 17。换句话说,1950 年的商品和服务价格是 2005 年的 17%。在经济衰退和萧条期间,实际国民生产总值下降,在繁荣时期,它会增长。

To convert the unadjusted nominal GNP to real GNP, economists use a GNP deflator index. Using 2005 as a base year, the GNP deflator index then equaled 100. In 1950 it equaled 17. To translate, in 1950 the price of goods and services was 17 percent of what it was in 2005. During recessions and depressions real GNP falls, and during booms, it grows.

例如,假设 2011 年您在厨房生产了一磅价值 1 美元的咸水太妃糖。然后第二年,你做了一磅相同的糖果,由于通货膨胀,现在价值 1.04 美元。“名义上”,以“当前”美元计算,2012 年您创造了 4% 以上的价值。但你真的吗?不,你的输出是一样的。因此,经济学家使用平减指数调整名义 GNP 数字以产生实际 GNP。借助“真实”数据,分析师可以衡量和比较经济的“真实”增长。

For example, imagine that in 2011 you produced in your kitchen one pound of saltwater taffy worth $1. Then the following year, you made an identical pound of candy, now worth $1.04 due to inflation. “Nominally,” in “current” dollar terms in 2012, you produced 4 percent more value. But did you really? No. Your output was the same. Therefore, economists adjust nominal GNP numbers with a deflator to yield real GNP. With “real” figures analysts can measure and compare “real” growth in the economy.

除了国民生产总值平减指数之外,经济学家还使用另外两种通货膨胀指标来衡量通货膨胀对经济的影响。消费者价格指数(CPI) 衡量人们最常购买的一揽子消费品和服务的价格变化。这个购物篮或商品集合每年都保持不变。生产者价格指数(PPI) 衡量生产者最常使用的一系列原材料的价格变化。CPI 指数以 1982-84 年为基准年(1982-84 = 100)。PPI 使用 1982 年(1982 = 100)。2010 年 CPI 为 224,PPI 为 184。这意味着 2010 年相同商品的消费价格比 1984 年高出 224%。

In addition to a GNP deflator, economists use two more measures of inflation to gauge inflation’s impact on the economy. The consumer price index (CPI) measures the price changes of a specifically defined basket of consumer goods and services that people buy most often. This shopping basket or collection of goods is kept constant from year to year. The producer price index (PPI) measures price changes of a collection of raw materials used most often by producers. The CPI index uses 1982–84 as its base years (1982–84 = 100). The PPI uses 1982 (1982 = 100). In 2010 the CPI was 224 and the PPI 184. That means that consumer prices in 2010 were 224 percent greater than they were in 1984 for identical goods.

GNP 指标还有另外两种变体,称为国民生产净值(NNP) 和国内生产总值 (GDP)。NNP 考虑在生产中耗尽机器、工厂和设备的成本。在会计中,我知道你还记得,他们将这种资产浪费称为折旧。NNP 是国民生产总值减去经济中使用的固定资产的折旧。

There are also two additional variations of GNP measures called net national product (NNP) and gross domestic product (GDP). NNP considers the cost of using up machinery, factories, and equipment in production. In accounting, as I know you remember, they call that wasting of assets depreciation. NNP is GNP less the depreciation on the fixed assets used in the economy.

国内生产总值是在一国境内生产的国民生产总值的一部分。对于大量参与贸易的经济体来说,这是一个重要的统计数据。例如,日本的国民生产总值包括本田在美国的装配厂的利润,但这些利润将被排除在其国内生产总值之外。GDP被广泛使用。

Gross domestic product is the part of GNP that is produced within a country’s borders. It is an important statistic for economies heavily involved in trade. For example, Japan’s GNP includes profits from Honda’s assembly plants in the United States, but these profits would be excluded from its GDP. GDP is widely used.

 

 

国民生产总值方程。按照凯恩斯主义的观点,国民生产总值由四种类型的支出组成,这些支出会为他人带来收入。每个组成部分都可以而且应该受到政府保持经济稳定增长和低失业率的愿望的影响。当 MBA 提到 GNP 的组成部分时,他们称它们为 GNP 的驱动因素

The GNP Equation. The gross national product, in the Keynesian view, is composed of four types of spending that result in income for others. Each component can and should be influenced by the government’s desire to maintain steady economic growth and low unemployment. When MBAs refer to the components of GNP, they call them the drivers of GNP.

 

 

GNP = C + I + G + X其中:

GNP = C + I + G + X where:

C是个人消费

C is Personal Consumption

是私人投资

I is Private Investment

G是政府采购

G is Government Purchases

X是扣除进口后的净出口

X is Net of Exports over Imports

 

 

如等式所示,消费、投资或政府支出的任何增加都会导致经济增长。中国、日本和台湾等国家/地区将出口作为增长引擎。相比之下,美国每年的贸易逆差拖累了其经济。

As illustrated by the equation, any increase in consumption, investment, or government spending will result in growth for the economy. Countries such as China, Japan, and Taiwan use exports as their engines for growth. The United States, by contrast, drags its economy with a yearly trade deficit.

如前所述,凯恩斯主义者的主要目标是充分就业。国民生产总值的下降令人沮丧,因为这意味着工作岗位减少。如果经济运行在低于​​充分就业的水平,那么就会出现所谓的国民生产总值缺口。如果政府通过增加支出来干预方程式,经济就会得到提振,就业也会增加,从而缩小差距。

As mentioned previously, the Keynesians’ main goal is full employment. A lowering in GNP is distressing since it means fewer jobs. If the economy is operating at a level below full employment, then there is what is called a GNP gap. If the government intervenes in the equation by increasing spending, the economy will be buoyed up and there will be a rise in employment to close the gap.

扮演魔鬼的拥护者,货币主义者会争辩说政府统计数据提供的经济指标不准确。国民生产总值不包括地下和未被承认的犯罪经济、未报告的收入和在家工作的母亲的产出。国民生产总值也忽略了减去环境破坏的成本和增加闲暇时间的价值。

Playing the devil’s advocate, a monetarist would argue that the measures of the economy provided by government statistics are not accurate. Absent from GNP are the underground and unrecognized economies of crime, unreported earnings, and the output of mothers working at home. GNP also neglects to subtract the cost of environmental damage and add the value of leisure time produced.

 

 

乘数效应和财政政策。凯恩斯主义理论家赞成政府支出来刺激经济,因为他们相信其积极影响。一个人或政府的支出为另一个人或公司提供收入。这种支出在支出和收入的重复循环中波及整个经济的方式称为乘数效应。国会和总统如何决定花钱,称为政府的财政政策。

The Multiplier Effect and Fiscal Policy. Keynesian theorists favor government spending to spur the economy because they believe in its positive impact. Spending by one person or by a government provides income to another individual or company. The way that such spending ripples through the economy in a repetitive cycle of spending and income is called the multiplier effect. How the Congress and the president decide to spend money is called the government’s fiscal policy.

凯恩斯主义者认为,政府的财政政策可以“启动”缓慢的经济。2009 年,国会议员竞相启动公共工程项目,以在深度衰退期间提振经济。道路建设涉及购买岩石、水泥、钢材、设备和劳动力,参与这项工作的人将他们的工资和利润用于食物、住房和衣服。这在整个社区中倍增了原始政府支出的影响。

The Keynesians believe that a government’s fiscal policy can “prime the pump” of a slow economy. In 2009 members of Congress raced to start public works projects to boost the economy during the deep recession. Road construction involves the purchase of rock, cement, steel, equipment, and labor, and the people involved in this work spend their wages and profits on food, housing, and clothes. This multiplies throughout the community the effect of the original government spending.

让我们看看这些建筑工资中的 1,000,000 美元的乘数。工人对经济的影响取决于他们的边际消费倾向(MPC) 或花费他们赚到的钱。如果建筑工人花费了他们收入的 80%,并节省了 20%,则他们的 MPC 为 0.8。MPC越高,他们的收入对经济的影响就越大。对经济的影响计算如下:

Let’s see the multiplier at work for $1,000,000 of those construction salaries. The workers’ impact on the economy is dependent on their marginal propensity to consume (MPC) or spend the money they earn. If construction workers spent 80 percent of what they earned and saved 20 percent, they are said to have an MPC of .8. The higher the MPC, the greater the impact of their earnings on the economy. The effect on the economy would be calculated as follows:

图片

100 万美元的工资将产生 500 万美元(1,000,000 美元× 5)的经济总支出。对于赢得其选区的公共工程项目和国防合同的国会议员,他们的选票购买力也增加了五倍。

The effect of $1 million of wages would result in $5 million ($1,000,000 × 5) of total spending in the economy. For members of Congress who win public works projects and defense contracts for their districts, their vote-buying power is also multiplied by five.

图片

 

 

商品和货币市场的 IS/LM 曲线。根据凯恩斯的说法,利率也是经济的强大驱动力。较高的利率往往会阻碍推动经济增长的投资 (I)。如果高利率使每月还款变得无力承担,那么消费者不太可能购买昂贵的物品,例如汽车和房屋。解释这种关系的向下倾斜的曲线称为投资和支出曲线(IS)。

The IS/LM Curve of the Goods and Money Markets. According to Keynes, interest rates are also powerful driving forces in the economy. Higher interest rates tend to retard the investments (I) that drive economic growth. It is unlikely that consumers will buy expensive items, such as cars and houses, if high interest rates make monthly payments unaffordable. The downward-sloping curve explaining this relationship is called the investment and spending curve (IS).

凯恩斯承认货币的力量,指出利率越高,对货币的流动性偏好就越高。1980 年 12 月 19 日,利率达到 21% 的历史新高,人们蜂拥而至投资货币市场基金。1992 年,当利率徘徊在 3% 至 5% 时,投资者纷纷抛售现金并冒险进入股市。2003 年,利率为 1% 至 3%,股票市场存在一定风险,投资者纷纷涌入房地产市场,但在 2007 年和 2008 年惨遭收场。这种关系用一条向上倾斜的曲线来说明,该曲线称为流动性和货币曲线(LM ). 在某个理论点上,存在一个均衡点,IS 曲线和 LM 曲线在均衡利率和 GNP 水平处相交。

Acknowledging the power of money, Keynes noted that the higher the interest rates, the higher the liquidity preference for money. On December 19, 1980, interest rates reached an all-time high of 21 percent, and people flocked to invest in money market funds. In 1992, when interest rates were hovering at 3 to 5 percent, investors rushed to shed their cash and ventured into the stock market. In 2003, with rates at 1 to 3 percent, and the stock market somewhat risky, investors rushed into real estate, which ended badly in 2007 and 2008. This relationship is illustrated by an upward-sloping curve called the liquidity and money curve (LM). At some theoretical point there is an equilibrium point where the IS and LM curves meet at an equilibrium interest rate and a level of GNP.

IS/LM 曲线

THE IS/LM CURVE

图片

IS/LM 曲线

THE IS/LM CURVE

图片

IS/LM 曲线不固定。它可以改变。如果在经济衰退期间政府的刺激措施导致支出增加,人们的总体支出将增加。在这种情况下,整个 IS 曲线将向上移动,导致更高的利率和更高的 GNP。如果货币供应量也以适当的比例增加以适应支出的增加,那么利率可以保持不变。当然,这是理论上的。

The IS/LM curve is not fixed. It can change. If spending increases due to pump priming by the government during a recession, people will spend more in the aggregate. In this case, the entire IS curve will shift upward, resulting in higher interest rates and a higher GNP. If the money supply were also to be increased by the right proportion to accommodate the increase in spending, then interest rates could remain the same. That’s in theory, of course.

没有适用于整个经济的单一利率,也无法准确描绘消费者支出对利率的反应。这就是为什么这是经济学。IS/LM 曲线不精确;然而,它确实说明了一种合乎逻辑的关系。

There is not a single interest rate for the whole economy, nor can an accurate picture of how consumer spending responds to interest rates be drawn. That’s why this is economics. The IS/LM curve is not precise; it does, however, illustrate a relationship that makes logical sense.

 

 

经济增长和货币主义观点

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE MONETARIST VIEW

什么是金钱?要开始讨论货币主义者,你需要知道当他们谈论他们心中最珍视的东西——金钱时,他们在谈论什么。货币是买卖商品和服务的交换媒介。听起来很简单,但钱只是现金吗?不是。当经济学家谈到衡量货币供应量时,他们还包括“货币等价物”,例如支票账户余额和货币市场基金。

What Is Money? To begin a discussion on the monetarists, you need to know what they are talking about when they speak of what is dearest to their hearts—money. Money is the medium of exchange to buy and sell goods and services. Sounds simple, but is money just cash? No. When economists speak about measuring the money supply, they also include the “money equivalents” such as checking account balances and money market funds.

货币供应量称为M1M2。M1 是最容易获得的货币,仅包括现金、支票账户余额和非银行旅行支票。M2 包括 M1 的组成部分加上储蓄和货币市场账户。2010年,M1和M2分别为2万亿美元和9万亿美元。政府密切监控 M1 和 M2 货币供应量,以衡量经济对货币的需求,从而衡量其健康状况。

The money supply is referred to as M1 and M2. M1, the most accessible money, includes only cash, checking account balances, and nonbank traveler’s checks. M2 includes M1’s components plus savings and money market accounts. In 2010, M1 and M2 equaled $2 trillion and $9 trillion respectively. The government closely monitors M1 and M2 money supply to gauge the economy’s demand for money, and hence, its health.

 

 

货币数量理论方程。凯恩斯用 LM 曲线处理经济的货币维度,而货币主义者认为货币是国民生产总值的主要驱动力。数量理论方程解释了货币主义者的立场。货币供应量的变化导致名义 GNP 的直接变化:

The Quantity Theory Equation of Money. Whereas Keynes addresses the monetary dimension of the economy with the LM curve, monetarists consider money the main driver of GNP. The Quantity Theory Equation explains the monetarists’ position. Changes in money supply cause direct changes in nominal GNP:

 

 

M × V = P × Q

M × V = P × Q

货币×速度=物价水平×实际国民生产总值

Money × Velocity = Price Level × Real GNP

货币供应量=名义国民生产总值

Money Supply = Nominal GNP

 

 

货币理论将货币供应量视为货币数量与其在经济中流通速度的乘积。速度是金钱易手的速度。很明显,如果一美元留在床垫下,它对经济就没有什么价值。它的速度为零。如果同一美元多次易手——被一些人花掉而成为其他人的收入——经济增长率就会提高。尽管如此,货币主义者奇怪地认为货币流通速度是恒定的。

Monetary theories consider the money supply as the product of the amount of money and the velocity at which it travels through the economy. Velocity is the speed at which money changes hands. It is obvious that if a dollar remains under the mattress, it has little value to the economy. Its velocity is zero. If that same dollar were to change hands many times—be spent by some and be income to others—the rate of economic growth would be increased. Nonetheless, monetarists oddly believe that the velocity of money is constant.

如果您查看数量理论方程式,则恒定速度的假设很方便。保持速度不变使货币供应量成为经济增长的唯一决定因素。凯恩斯主义者认为这个提议很可笑。在不同的时间点,基于普遍存在的恐惧或兴奋,凯恩斯主义者认为速度会发生变化。例如,在萧条时期,人们会尽可能地存钱,因为他们担心下一份薪水可能是最后一份。

The assumption of constant velocity is convenient if you look at the Quantity Theory Equation. Holding velocity constant makes the money supply the only determinant of growth in the economy. Keynesians find that proposition ludicrous. At different points in time, based on prevailing fear or euphoria, Keynesians believe there are changes in velocity. In a depression, for instance, people try to save whatever they can because they fear the next paycheck may be their last.

您可能会从等式中得出结论,通过将印刷机设置为高速运转,政府可以使经济进入高速增长状态。这可能是真的。名义 GNP 可能会被推向新的高度,但根据通货膨胀进行调整后,实际 GNP 可能会保持不变或因此下降。

You might conclude from the equation that by setting the printing press on high speed, a government could send an economy into a high-growth gear. That may be true. The nominal GNP could be driven to new heights, but adjusted for inflation, the real GNP might remain the same or fall as a result.

货币主义者最关心价格水平或通货膨胀的变化。如果货币因价格上涨而贬值,经济产出的实际价值就会减少。诀窍是让华盛顿的智者恰到好处地增加货币供应量,这样经济增长就不会出现通货膨胀。

Monetarists are most concerned about changes in price levels or inflation. If money is devalued by price increases, the real value of the economy’s output is diminished. The trick is to have the wise men in Washington increase the money supply just the right amount so that there may be economic growth with litle inflation.

凯恩斯主义者喜欢一点通货膨胀。这种偏好得到了伦敦经济学院 AW Phillips 的研究的支持,他声称更高的通货膨胀伴随着更低的失业率。通货膨胀与就业之间的关系由称为菲利普斯曲线的图表显示。货币主义者不买账。他们认为,通货膨胀率较低的经济体也可能有较低的失业率。美国的历史数据表明,凯恩斯主义关系确实成立。在 1950 年至 1985 年期间尤其如此,但随着时间的推移,情况并非一直如此,例如 1985 年以来的时期。

Keynesians like a little inflation. That preference is supported by the research of A. W. Phillips of the London School of Economics, who claimed that higher inflation is accompanied by lower unemployment. The relationship between inflation and employment is shown by a graph called the Phillips curve. Monetarists don’t buy it. They believe that an economy with lower inflation can also have low rates of unemployment. Historical data in the United States show that the Keynesian relationship does hold. It was especially true in the period between 1950 and 1985, but it has not been consistently so over time, such as the period since 1985.

 

 

货币政策工具。我提到货币供应是可以被操纵的。由总统任命的七人小组是华盛顿联邦储备委员会的成员。所谓的美联储拥有三种货币工具来调节经济。

Monetary Policy Tools. I mentioned that the supply of money can be manipulated. A group of seven men appointed by the president sit on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington. The Fed, as it is called, has three monetary tools at its disposal to regulate the economy.

更改贴现率。银行以贴现率从美联储借钱,然后以更高的利率贷给客户。如果贴现率降低,银行的贷款利率与它们从美联储获得的成本之间的差价就会更高。反过来,这会鼓励银行向企业和消费者发放更多贷款,用于购买房屋、汽车和信用卡。银行向最好的客户收取最低的贷款利率,称为最优惠利率。更多的贷款增加了经济中的货币供应量,乘数效应开始了。2001 年 9 月 11 日之后,美联储将利率降至 1%,以防止在特殊情况下出现严重衰退,并在 2008 年金融危机后降至零。

Change the discount rate. Banks borrow money from the Federal Reserve at a discount rate and loan it at higher rates to customers. If the discount rate is lowered, the margin between the banks’ loan rate and their cost from the Fed is higher. In turn, that encourages banks to make more loans to businesses and to consumers for homes, cars, and credit cards. Banks charge their best customers their lowest loan rate, called the prime rate. More loans increase the money supply in the economy and the multiplier effect starts. After September 11, 2001, the Fed lowered the rate to 1 percent to prevent a severe recession under extraordinary circumstances, and that was lowered to zero after the 2008 financial meltdown.

交易政府证券。美联储实际上在金融市场上交易政府证券。它买卖政府自己的国债。这些交易交易称为公开市场运营。当美联储从公众手中购买政府证券时,它会将更多的钱放在出售这些证券的公众手中;货币供应量增加。这被称为量化宽松(QE)。除了史无前例地将利率降至接近零之外,美联储还在 2008 年至 2010 年期间购买了超过 2 万亿美元的政府债务,以努力使美国摆脱衰退。当投资者购买美联储出售的政府证券时,资金会从他们的现金池中流失;货币供应量减少。

Trade government securities. The Fed actually trades in government securities in the financial markets. It buys and sells the government’s own Treasury bonds. These trading transactions are called open market operations. When the Fed purchases government securities from the public it places more money in the hands of the public who sold them; the money supply increases. This is called quantitative easing (QE). In addition to the unprecedented lowering of rates to nearly zero, the Fed in 2008 through 2010 also bought over $2 trillion of governmental debt in an effort to bring the United States out of recession. When investors buy government securities sold by the Fed, money is drained from their pool of cash; the money supply decreases.

改变金融机构存款准备金率。美联储要求银行和经纪商等金融机构按规定比例保留客户手头存入的现金。这笔现金称为储备金。银行需要准备金来进行日常交易并为希望提取资金的储户提供便利。储备提供了一种安全措施。存款人剩下的钱借给客户。当监管机构要求更高水平的准备金时,银行无法贷出那么多钱;这减少了经济中的货币供应量。

Change the reserve requirement of financial institutions. The Federal Reserve requires that financial institutions, such as banks and brokers, keep a prescribed percentage of the cash deposited by customers on hand. This cash is called a reserve. A reserve requirement is needed for banks to conduct daily transactions and accommodate depositors who wish to withdraw their funds. A reserve provides a measure of security. The rest of the depositors’ money is loaned to customers. When regulators require a higher level of reserves, banks cannot loan as much money; this reduces the money supply in the economy.

 

 

通过这三种工具,美联储不仅可以改变货币供应量,还可以改变货币成本——利率。美联储试图随着经济增长逐渐增加货币供应量。如果这个运营执行得当,通货膨胀和利率可以保持在低位,经济可以增长。如果货币供应保持过于紧张,可能会出现深度衰退,就像 1980 年代初期那样。如果任其发展不受限制,通货膨胀可能会失控,就像过去二十年在许多南美国家发生的那样,未来也可能在美国发生。

With these three tools, the Fed is able to change not only the money supply, but also the cost of money—interest rates. The Fed tries to gradually increase the supply of money as the economy grows. If this operation is performed correctly, inflation and interest rates can stay low and the economy can grow. If the money supply is kept too tight, a deep recession could occur, as it did in the early 1980s. If left to grow unrestrained, inflation can roar out of control, as has happened in many South American countries in the past two decades and may happen in the United States in the future.

 

 

选择哪一边?如果你是保守派,你会倾向于弗里德曼阵营。如果你在政治上是自由主义者,凯恩斯主义经济学可能会很有吸引力,因为它呼吁建立一个更加激进的政府。无论如何,两个阵营在保持经济稳定方面的记录并不令人印象深刻。我们在美国仍然有经济衰退。

Which Side to Choose? If you are a conservative, you will gravitate to the Friedman camp. If you are politically liberal, Keynesian economics might be appealing since it calls for a more activist government. Regardless, the track record of both camps in keeping the economy on a steady course is not impressive. We still have recessions in the United States.

货币和支出理论在经济体系的运作中都发挥着重要作用。这是先有鸡还是先有蛋的困境。谁开始这个过程?货币政策决定货币供应量,进而影响支出和国民生产总值。还是凯恩斯主义的支出“尾巴”摇了货币主义的“狗”?如果你弄明白了,请写一本书,让所有的经济学家都明白过来。

Both monetary and spending theories play significant roles in the workings of economic systems. It is a chicken-and-egg dilemma. Who starts the process? Monetary policy determines the supply of money, which in turn affects spending and GNP. Or does the Keynesian spending “tail” wag the monetarist “dog”? If you figure that one out, please write a book and set all the economists straight.

 

 

您需要了解的更多经济学家

MORE ECONOMISTS YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT

弗里德曼和凯恩斯在你的 MBA 手袋中,你至少需要对以下五位经济学家有所了解。正如我们所知,他们经常被提及塑造了现代经济学。

With Friedman and Keynes in your MBA grab bag, you need to know at least a little something about the following five economists. They are frequently mentioned as having shaped modern economics as we know it.

 

 

亚当斯密和国富论。亚当·斯密是世界上最早的经济学家之一,但他至今仍被人们津津乐道。他的《国富论》( The Wealth of Nations,1776 年)一书将竞争的“看不见的手”描述为指导基于自身利益的经济体系。他看到“国家财富”因劳动分工而增加。以别针工厂为例,史密斯描述了当将不同的任务分配给具有适当技能的工人时,工厂的生产率是如何提高的。他观察到这样的案例,在那个时代,每个人只生产几枚别针,十个人每人执行一项单独的任务,每天生产四万八千个别针。

Adam Smith and The Wealth of Nations. Adam Smith is one of the world’s earliest economists, but he is still much talked about. His book The Wealth of Nations (1776) described the “invisible hand” of competition as guiding an economic system based on self-interest. He saw the “wealth of nations” increase by the division of labor. Using the example of a pin factory, Smith described how productivity of a factory was enhanced when the different tasks were assigned to those workers with the appropriate skill. He observed cases in which ten people each performing a separate task turned out forty-eight thousand pins a day in an era when individuals were still turning out but a few pins.

 

 

约瑟夫·熊彼特和“创造性破坏”。这位早已死去并被遗忘的哈佛经济学家在 1980 年代复活了。熊彼特之所以被挖掘出来,是因为他将企业家视为经济生活中的关键人物。如果您最近接触过任何商业期刊,您一定会注意到entrepreneur一词或其派生词的使用频率与athe 一样高。

Joseph Schumpeter and “Creative Destruction.” This Harvard economist, long dead and forgotten, was resurrected in the 1980s. Schumpeter has been exhumed because he saw the entrepreneur as the crucial figure in economic life. If you have picked up any business periodical lately, you will not have failed to notice the word entrepreneur or some derivation thereof used with as much frequency as a and the.

熊彼特认为资本主义“不守规矩且令人不安,是一个不断变化而不是平衡的系统”。在《资本主义、社会主义和民主》(1942 年)中,他将资本主义描述为一种“创造性破坏”的过程。“企业家创造的新产业以痛苦和令人不安的方式取代了其他产业。” 在 20 世纪 80 年代的接管和杠杆收购热潮中,企业掠夺者引用熊彼特的话来证明他们的行为和利润是净化资本主义制度的健康活动。对于没有勇气自己出击的 MBA,理论家们创造了内部创业者这个词,作为对那些被困在公司但仍想成为变革推动者的人的安慰奖。

Schumpeter considered capitalism “unruly and disconcerting, a system of flux rather than equilibrium.” In Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy (1942) he wrote about capitalism as a process of “creative destruction.” “Entrepreneurs create new industries that displace others in a painful and disquieting way.” During the takeover and leveraged buyout craze of the 1980s, corporate raiders quoted Schumpeter to justify their actions and their profits as healthy activities that cleansed the capitalist system. For MBAs without the nerve to strike out on their own, theorists have created the term intrapreneurs as a consolation prize for those who are locked in corporations but still want to be agents of change.

 

 

约翰·肯尼思·加尔布雷思和自由主义观点。哈佛大学经济学家加尔布雷思 (Galbraith) 并非以其宏大理论或技术研究而闻名,而是以其宽泛的政策声明而闻名。虽然他不被认为是一位突破性的思想家,但他发表激动人心的演讲和推销他的书籍的能力使他在经济学界享有盛名。1951 年,加尔布雷思在《美国资本主义:反补贴力量的概念》中为工会辩护。在富裕的社会(1958 年)中,他呼吁经济不再强调生产以支持公共服务。在他 1967 年的新工业国家中,加尔布雷思评论了美国逐渐走向社会主义的过程。

John Kenneth Galbraith and a Liberal View. Galbraith, a Harvard economist, is known not for his grand theories or technical research, but for his broad policy statements. Although he is not considered a breakthrough thinker, his ability to give rousing lectures and market his books has given him a big name in economics. In 1951, Galbraith made a case for labor unions in American Capitalism: The Concept of Countervailing Power. In The Affluent Society (1958) he called for the economy to deemphasize production in favor of public services. In his 1967 The New Industrial State, Galbraith commented on the gradual move toward socialism in the United States.

 

 

Arthur Okun 和奥肯定律。Arthur Okun 和 AW Phillips 一样研究经济增长和失业率。来自耶鲁大学的奥肯是肯尼迪和约翰逊政府期间总统经济顾问委员会中最具影响力的经济学家之一。他发现更高水平的经济增长伴随着更低的失业率。他的历史研究表明,实际国民生产总值每增长 2.2 个百分点,失业率就会下降 1 个百分点。这一经验法则被广泛用于证明华盛顿在 1960 年代推行的刺激政策是合理的。

Arthur Okun and Okun’s Law. Arthur Okun studied economic growth and unemployment just as A. W. Phillips did. Okun, from Yale, was one of the most influential economists on the President’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Kennedy and Johnson administrations. He found that higher levels of economic growth are accompanied by lower unemployment. His historical studies indicated that for every 2.2 percentage points of real GNP growth, unemployment falls 1 point. That rule of thumb was extensively used to justify the stimulative policies pursued by Washington in the 1960s.

 

 

Arthur Laffer 和 1980 年代的供应方经济学家。阿瑟·拉弗 (Arthur Laffer) 是 1980 年代出现的最著名的供应方经济学家之一。供应方相信减税的激励作用。税收激励和联邦支出削减对于通过增加储蓄和投资来促进增长至关重要。当个人和企业保留更多收入时,他们可以储蓄并投资于项目,这反过来又会提高经济生产力。生产率的提高提高了“供应”水平,并产生了更多的财富和经济增长。

Arthur Laffer and the Supply-Side Economists of the 1980s. Arthur Laffer is one of the best-known supply-side economists to emerge in the 1980s. Supply-siders believe in the incentive effects of reduced taxation. Tax incentives and federal spending reductions are critical in promoting growth by causing increases in savings and investment. When individuals and businesses keep more of their earnings, they can save and invest in projects, which in turn makes the economy more productive. This increase in productivity increases the level of “supply” and produces more wealth and economic growth.

在南加州大学期间,拉弗开发了后来被称为拉弗曲线的曲线解释税率的激励作用。不,这不是开玩笑。拉弗曲线促使里根政府和国会在 1981 年减税。他的理论表明税收收入与税率相关。他的曲线显示总税收收入随着税率的增加而增加,但超过某个点后,税率的增加会减少总税收收入。较高的税率鼓励税收欺诈。更高的税率会阻碍人们工作更多。如果税率太高,降低税率将通过提高工作利润来鼓励人们工作。这反过来会增加总税收收入,尽管每一美元收入的边际税较小。该理论的问题在于它过于抽象。理论上存在最优税率,但没有人确切知道它是多少。

While at the University of Southern California, Laffer developed what has come to be known as the Laffer curve to explain the incentive effects of tax rates. No, it’s not a joke. The Laffer curve motivated the Reagan administration and the Congress to cut taxes in 1981. His theory suggests that tax revenues are correlated to the tax rate. His curve shows that total tax revenues increase as tax rates increase, but past a certain point, increases in rates decrease total tax revenues. Higher rates encourage tax cheating. Higher tax rates discourage people from working more. If rates are too high, reducing the tax rate will encourage people to work by making it more profitable to do so. That in turn will increase gross tax receipts although the marginal tax on each dollar of income is smaller. The problem with the theory is that it is too abstract. There is, theoretically, an optimal tax rate, but nobody knows exactly what it is.

拉弗曲线

THE LAFFER CURVE

图片

其他来自里根时代的“激进”供应方经济学家可能会悄悄出现在您的经济对话中,包括乔治·吉尔德(George Gilder)(《财富与贫困》, 1981 年)和裘德·万尼斯基(《世界运作方式》, 1978 年)。

Other “radical” supply-side economists from the Reagan era who might creep into your economic conversations include George Gilder (Wealth and Poverty, 1981) and Jude Wanniski (The Way the World Works, 1978).

 

 

加里贝克尔和行为经济学。加里·贝克尔 (Gary Becker) 是最早将经济理论应用于社会学主题的经济学家之一。他认为,许多类型的行为都可以被视为理性和效用最大化。种族歧视、犯罪、家庭组织和毒瘾是他最著名的研究主题。芝加哥大学教授史蒂文·莱维特 (Steven Levitt) 在《魔鬼经济学》一书中推广了该领域

Gary Becker and Behavioral Economics. Gary Becker was one of the first economists to apply economic theory to topics belonging to sociology. He argued that many types of behavior can be seen as rational and utility maximizing. Racial discrimination, crime, family organization, and drug addiction were topics of his most famous studies. Fellow University of Chicago professor Steven Levitt popularized the field in the book Freakonomics.

 

 

国际宏观经济学

INTERNATIONAL MACROECONOMICS

从更广阔的角度来看,国际舞台上的宏观经济学是商学院的最爱。随着世界经济的全球化,国际经济学已经成为MBA课程的热门部分。顶尖学校的招生部门特别努力让每个入学班级的外国学生“正确”组合,为课堂增添国际气息。

Taking an even broader view, macroeconomics in the international arena is a favorite of business schools. With the globalization of the world’s economy, international economics has become a popular part of the MBA curriculum. The admissions departments of the top schools make special efforts to have just the “right” mix of foreign students in each entering class to add that international flavor to the classroom.

 

 

各国的比较优势

THE COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE OF NATIONS

1817 年,大卫李嘉图在他的著作《政策、经济和税收原则》中概述了比较优势原则。一个国家的比较优势是它能够以低于其贸易伙伴的成本生产产品。理论上,由于土地、劳动力或好天气的可用性,国家应该最大限度地生产他们最有效生产的商品。即使一个国家能够以绝对低于另一个国家的成本生产一种产品,该国家也应该最大限度地提高其生产效率高于其他国家的产品的产量。李嘉图建议葡萄牙向英国出口葡萄酒并从英国进口羊毛,尽管这两种产品在葡萄牙的生产成本绝对较低。理由是葡萄牙在生产葡萄酒方面比生产羊毛更有效率,而且它的生产能力有限。因此其容量最好用于葡萄酒,因此羊毛应从英国进口。

In 1817, David Ricardo outlined the principles of comparative advantage in his work Principles of Policy, Economy and Taxation. A comparative advantage of a nation is its ability to produce a product at a lower cost than its trading partners. Nations theoretically should maximize the production of goods that they produce most efficiently because of availability of land, labor, or good weather. Even if a country is able to produce a product at an absolute lower cost relative to another nation, that nation should maximize the output of products that it produces more efficiently than other nations. Ricardo proposed that Portugal export wine to England and import wool from England even though both products are produced at absolutely lower costs in Portugal. The rationale is that Portugal is more efficient at producing wine than wool and it has a limited productive capacity. Therefore its capacity is best utilized for wine, and thus wool should be imported from England.

在美日贸易关系中,美国应该最大限度地发挥其以较低成本生产粮食的能力。美国拥有大量优质农田、机械、肥料、技术专长和劳动力。美国的农业生产率是日本的三倍。另一方面,日本擅长生产电子产品和汽车。从理论上讲,如果世界上只有这两个国家,美国应该削减所有电子产品生产,将重点转移到食品生产上。相反,日本人应该停止低效的粮食生产。然而,实际上,还有其他国家议程和特殊利益在起作用,促使各国设置贸易壁垒。这些阻碍了比较优势的效率发挥作用。贸易壁垒,例如进口税、进口配额、或其他贸易规则是政府保护国内产业和就业的尝试。MBA 学校一直鼓吹关税和贸易壁垒是“坏的”,自由贸易是长期经济增长的首选。

In the U.S.-Japanese trading relationship, the United States should maximize its ability to produce food at a lower cost. America has plenty of good farmland, machinery, fertilizer, technical expertise, and labor. U.S. farm productivity is three times Japan’s. Japan, on the other hand, is good at producing electronics and automobiles. Theoretically, if these were the only two countries in the world, the United States should slash all electronics production and shift its emphasis to food production. The Japanese, conversely, should stop their inefficient food production. In reality, however, there are other national agenda and special interests at work that prompt nations to erect trade barriers. These prevent the efficiencies of comparative advantage from working. Trade barriers such as taxes on imports, import quotas, or other trading rules are governmental attempts to protect domestic industries and jobs. MBA schools consistently preach that tariffs and trade barriers are “bad,” and free trade is preferred for long-term economic growth.

 

 

国际收支

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

正如公司通过财务报表跟踪他们的交易一样,整个国家通过国际收支(BOP) 会计来跟踪他们的国际交易。国际收支记录了一个国家对所有其他国家的金融债权和义务的变化。它类似于会计师的现金流量表。国际收支会计显示一段时间内外汇的变化。外汇是可用于进行国际支付的现金和黄金储备等流动资产的余额。

Just as companies keep track of their transactions with financial statements, entire nations keep track of their international transactions via balance of payments (BOP) accounting. The BOP registers the changes in a country’s financial claims and obligations with all other countries. It is similar to an accountant’s cash flow statement. Balance of payments accounting shows changes in foreign exchange for a period of time. Foreign exchange is the balance of liquid assets such as cash and gold reserves that can be used to make international payments.

 

 

外汇来源:商品出口

SOURCES OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE: Merchandise Exports

外汇使用:商品进口

USES OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE: Merchandise Imports

 

 

外汇来源:外国人旅费

SOURCES OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE: Travel Expenses of Foreigners Here

外汇使用:公民出国旅行

USES OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE: Travel of Citizens Abroad

 

 

外汇来源:国内承运人向外国人收取的运输收据

SOURCES OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE: Transportation Receipts of Domestic Carriers from Foreigners

外汇使用:居民支付给外国人的交通费

USES OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE: Transportation Expenses by Residents Paid to Foreigners

 

 

外汇来源:收取的费用和特许权使用费

SOURCES OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE: Fees and Royalties Received

外汇使用:在国外支付的费用和特许权使用费

USES OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE: Fees and Royalties Paid Abroad

 

 

外汇来源 :外国投资收入

SOURCES OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE: Foreign Investment Income

外汇使用:在国外支付的利息和股息

USES OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE: Interest and Dividends Paid Abroad

 

 

外汇来源:收到的政府对外援助

SOURCES OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE: Government Foreign Aid Received

外汇使用:提供的政府对外援助

USES OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE: Government Foreign Aid Given

 

 

外汇来源:私人向国内转移资金

SOURCES OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE: Private Transfers of Money into the Country

外汇的使用:国外的私人资金转移

USES OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE: Private Transfers of Money Abroad

 

 

外汇来源:国外负债增加

SOURCES OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE: Increases in Foreign Liabilities

外汇使用:国外资产增加

USES OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE: Increases in Foreign Assets

 

 

上面的来源和用途从广义上显示了最常进入外汇分类账的项目。不包括国际毒品贸易和其他未报告的活动。媒体通常会忽略整个国际收支情况,只关注商品贸易逆差。说美国 2010 年的商品贸易逆差为 6500 亿美元比较容易。记者忽略了美国在咨询和工程等贸易服务方面有 1500 亿美元的盈余,以及 1600 亿美元的投资收入净盈余。这使得 14 万亿美元的经济体出现 3400 亿美元的净贸易逆差。

The sources and uses above show in broad terms the items that most frequently enter into a foreign exchange ledger. Excluded from the count are the international drug trade and other unreported activities. The press usually ignores the whole BOP picture and focuses only on the merchandise trade deficit. It is easier to say that the United States in 2010 ran a $650 billion merchandise trade deficit. Journalists ignore that the U.S. ran a $150 billion surplus in trading services, such as consulting and engineering, and a net surplus of investment income of $160 billion. That leaves a net trade deficit of $340 billion in a $14 trillion economy.

拥有足够的外汇是极其重要的。2008 年津巴布韦货币崩溃的原因是其中央银行的外汇不足以兑现其政府和公民的购买行为。当外国人去把债权兑换成美元时,央行的外汇就被掏空了。没有可兑换性,每个人都抛掉了几乎一文不值的津巴布韦元。一美元价值一万亿津巴布韦美元,政府放弃了它的货币。

Having enough foreign exchange is extremely important. The collapse of the currency in Zimbabwe in 2008 came as a result of insufficient foreign exchange in its central bank to make good on the purchases made by its government and citizens. When foreigners went to convert their claims into U.S. dollars, the central bank was emptied of its foreign exchange. Without convertibility, everyone dumped their nearly worthless Zimbabwe dollars. One U.S. dollar was worth a trillion Zimbabwe dollars, and the government abandoned its currency.

 

 

汇率和购买价格平价

EXCHANGE RATE AND PURCHASE PRICE PARITY

汇率是一国货币兑换成另一国货币的比率。2011 年 7 月,1 美元可兑换 6.5 元人民币、80 日元、1 英镑的 66% 或 1 欧元的 68%。在 20 世纪 80 年代初期和中期,美元更值钱。美国人去欧洲旅行时发现了真正的便宜货。在美元疲软的 2000 年代,美国公民在欧洲旅行的费用很高。是什么让一个国家的货币比另一个国家的货币更值钱?这是旧的供求关系。国际货币交易者在试图预测世界货币的波动时必须牢记以下四个因素:

The exchange rate is the rate at which one country’s currency is converted into another’s. In July 2011, one U.S. dollar could buy 6.5 Chinese yuan, 80 Japanese yen, 66 percent of one British pound, or 68 percent of one European Union euro. In the early and mid-1980s the dollar was more valuable. Americans found real bargains when they traveled to Europe. In the 2000s with a weaker U.S. dollar, traveling in Europe was expensive for American citizens. What makes one country’s currency worth more than another’s? It’s the old supply-and-demand relationship. International currency traders have to keep the following four factors in mind when trying to predict the gyrations of world currencies:

 

 

  • 对货币支付商品和服务的交易需求
  • Trading Demands for Currency to Pay for Goods and Services

当美国需要购买法国葡萄酒时,进口商卖出美元,买入欧元,以欧盟货币支付。

When the United States needs to buy French wine, importers sell U.S. dollars and buy euros to make payment in EU currency.

  • 有吸引力的投资对货币的需求
  • Demands for Currency for Attractive Investments

美国较高的相对利率促使外国人购买债券。

Higher relative interest rates in the United States prompt purchases of bonds by foreigners.

美国较高的相对经济增长率促使外国人购买股票。

Higher U.S. relative rate of economic growth prompts purchases of stocks by foreigners.

  • 不确定时期对避风港的需求
  • Demands for a Safe Haven in Times of Uncertainty

在战争或混乱时期,投资者寻求稳定政府的货币。1991 年海湾战争期间,投资者买入美元,认为在不稳定的气候下,美国的表现会比其他国家好。2003年伊拉克战争后,投资者纷纷买入欧盟的欧元。

In times of war or chaos, investors seek the currencies of stable governments. During the Gulf War in 1991, investors bought U.S. dollars believing that in an unstable climate, the United States would fare better than other countries. After the Iraqi War in 2003, investors bought the European Union’s euro.

  • 相对于其他国家较低的通货膨胀
  • Lower Inflation Relative to Other Countries

1987年美国的通货膨胀率为3.6%,黎巴嫩的通货膨胀率为723%,反映了他们内战的混乱。黎巴嫩投资者自然希望以美元持有他们的投资,因为他们的英镑价值正在迅速贬值。购买力平价理论描述了货币价值因通货膨胀而相互调整的方式。如果一个国家的通货膨胀率高于另一个国家,那么其货币将向下调整以补偿每年的价值损失。在 1986 年和 1987 年的黎巴嫩内战期间,该国的汇率从 38 英镑兑 1 美元升至 496 英镑,损失了 86% 以弥补通货膨胀的损失。2011 年,由于持续的通货膨胀和政局不稳,一美元可以买到 1,510 黎巴嫩镑,但津巴布韦情况并非如此。

In 1987 the U.S. inflation rate was 3.6 percent, and the Lebanese inflation rate 723 percent, which reflected the chaos of their civil war. Lebanese investors naturally wanted to hold their investments in U.S. dollars because their pound’s value was eroding quickly. The theory of purchasing-power parity describes the way that currencies’ values adjust versus each other because of inflation. If one country’s inflation is higher than another’s, then its currency will be adjusted downward to compensate for the annual loss of value. During the Lebanese civil war in 1986 and 1987, the country’s exchange rate went from 38 to 496 pounds to the dollar, a loss of 86 percent to compensate for the loss of inflation. In 2011 a dollar could buy 1,510 Lebanese pounds as a result of continued inflation and political instability, bad but not Zimbabwe.

 

 

汇率变动对参与国际贸易的公司至关重要。如果汇率在签订合同和结算之间发生变化,则预期利润可能会因货币波动而消失。想象一下,如果一个农民想把价值一美元的牛肉卖到日本。按照 2011 年的汇率,他将收取 80 日元的费用,并期望获得 5% 的利润。但是当他得到报酬时,由于汇率变化,他可能需要 100 日元才能购买同样的 1 美元。虽然日元支付会保持在 80 日元不变,但货币波动会导致美元购买力损失 25%。公司和个人使用期货和期权市场来抵消或对冲这种货币交易的损失。这与金融章节中描述的股票期权套期保值没有什么不同。

Exchange rate movements are critical for companies involved in international trade. If exchange rates change between the time of signing a contract and its settlement, anticipated profits can be wiped out by currency fluctuations. Imagine if a farmer wanted to sell one U.S. dollar’s worth of beef to Japan. At the 2011 exchange rate he would charge 80 yen, expecting a 5 percent profit. But when he got paid, he might need 100 yen to buy the same one dollar, because of a rate change. Although the yen payment would have remained constant at 80 yen, the currency fluctuation would have caused a 25 percent loss in U.S. dollar buying power. Companies and individuals use the futures and options markets to offset or hedge losses on this kind of currency transaction. This is not unlike the stock-option hedging described in the finance chapter.

 

 

汇率制度

EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEMS

汇率由东道国的汇率制度决定。在浮动汇率下,该国货币的价值可以根据上述因素自由变动。在固定汇率制度下,东道国政府试图改变利率或买卖外币以维持对美元、欧盟欧元或一揽子货币的固定价值。这称为将货币的价值与另一种货币挂钩。1945年至1971年间,在布雷顿森林体系下,美元与一定数量的黄金挂钩,其他所有货币都与美元挂钩。该系统于 1971 年结束,当时许多国家决定允许其货币浮动。

Exchange rates are governed by the host country’s exchange rate system. With a floating exchange rate, the value of the country’s currency can freely move based on the factors described above. With a fixed exchange rate system, the host government tries to change interest rates or buy and sell foreign currencies to maintain a fixed value against the U.S. dollar, the EU’s euro, or a basket of currencies. This is called pegging the value of the currency to another. Between 1945 and 1971 under the Bretton Woods system, the U.S. dollar was pegged against a certain amount of gold, and all other currencies were pegged to the U.S. dollar. That system ended in 1971 when many countries decided to allow their currencies to float.

县不能只用他们的货币做任何事情。一个叫做不可能三部曲的概念说政府只能有以下三个选项中的两个:

Counties cannot just do anything with their currencies. A concept called the impossible trilogy says a government can have only two of the following three options:

 

 

独立的货币政策

Independent monetary policy

固定汇率

Fixed exchange rates

缺乏资本管制

Absence of capital controls

 

 

例如,如果一个国家像中国那样选择固定汇率,它就必须放弃独立的货币政策或实施资本管制以维持其与其他独立货币的固定挂钩。如果一个国家决定在动荡时期维持钉住汇率制,那么保持固定汇率就会变得昂贵。当一个固定的系统开始失效时,就像 1994 年在墨西哥和 1998 年在东南亚发生的那样,随着货币跌至其真实水平,导致贸易和投资中断,就会出现货币“危机”。

For example, if a country chooses a fixed exchange rate, as China does, it has to abandon an independent monetary policy or impose capital controls to maintain its fixed peg versus the other independent currency. If a country decides to maintain a peg in volatile times, it becomes expensive to keep a fixed rate of exchange. When a fixed system begins to fail, as it did in Mexico in 1994 and Southeast Asia in 1998, there is a currency “crisis” as the currencies fall to their true levels, causing trade and investment disruptions.

芝加哥大学的格雷戈里·曼昆 (Gregory Mankiw) 将国内利率、国际资本流动和货币汇率的主题放在一起,创建了一个三面板图来表示世界经济体系,如下所示。

By pulling together the topics of domestic interest rates, international capital flows, and currency rates, Gregory Mankiw of the University of Chicago has created a three-panel diagram to represent the world’s economics system, as presented below.

世界经济和三面板图

(来自维基百科,免费的百科全书)

THE WORLD ECONOMY AND THE 3-PANEL DIAGRAM

(From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia)

图片

在每个国家,例如美国,可贷资金的供求决定了国内实际利率水平。在该均衡利率下,美元储户提供资金,投资者对美元的需求得到满足。

Within each country, such as the United States, the supply and demand for loanable funds determine the level of domestic real interest rates. At that equilibrium interest rate, savers of dollars supply funds and investors’ demand for dollars is satisfied.

以美元计价的投资支付的利率在国际市场上可能具有吸引力,也可能没有吸引力。该国的风险程度、国际贸易的货币需求以及利率本身决定了该国的资本净流出。这些外流为国际货币市场提供了美元。美元的汇率是根据美元的国际供求关系确定的。

The interest rate paid on dollar-denominated investments can be either attractive or not in the international marketplace. The country’s riskiness, currency demands of international trade, and the interest rate itself determine the country’s net capital outflow. These outflows supply the international currency market with dollars. Based on the international supply and demand for dollars, the dollar’s exchange rate is established.

这三个变量——国内利率、资本流动和汇率——在国际宏观经济体系中同时相互作用,处于一个不断波动的平衡点,如三面板图所示。简而言之,这是宏观经济学。

These three variables—domestic interest rates, capital flows, and exchange rates—interact simultaneously in the international macroeconomic system at a constantly fluctuating point of equilibrium as depicted in a three-panel diagram. It’s macroeconomics in a nutshell.

 

 

国家分析

COUNTRY ANALYSIS

商学院教导学生在试图预测一个国家的未来时应该考虑什么。由于 MBA 学校渴望培养出大型跨国公司的总裁,因此他们必须让这些未来的行业领袖做好准备,以评估海外投资机会。

B-schools teach students what to consider when trying to make predictions about a country’s future. Since MBA schools aspire to turn out presidents of large multinational corporations, they must prepare these future captains of industry to evaluate investment opportunities abroad.

哈佛商学院开发的国家分析是一个四步过程,它试图组织所有可用的经济、社会、政治和地理数据来制定战略。

A country analysis, as developed at the Harvard Business School, is a four-step process that attempts to organize all available economic, social, political, and geographic data for strategy development.

 

 

1.分析过去的表现

1. Analyze Past Performance

外部措施——国际收支、汇率 内部措施

External Measures—balance of payments, exchange rates Internal Measures

一般:国民生产总值、通货膨胀、就业

General: GNP, inflation, employment

供给侧:利率、投资、产能

Supply Side: interest rates, investment, capacity

需求方:消费、收入分配

Demand Side: consumption, income distribution

社会方面:人口迁移、人口增长、教育

Social Side: human migrations, population growth, education

2. 确定国家战略

2. Identify the Country’s Strategy

目标:自主、生产力、公平

Goals: autonomy, productivity, equity

政策:财政、货币、贸易、社会

Policies: fiscal, monetary, trade, social

3. 分析一个国家的背景

3. Analyze a Country’s Context

物理:大小、人口、地理

Physical: size, population, geography

政治:政府类型、稳定、腐败、领导人

Political: government type, stability, corruption, leaders

机构:政府机构、商业、劳工、宗教、农业

Institutions: government agencies, business, labor, religion, agriculture

意识形态:政府、家庭、文化、个人主义的作用

Ideological: role of government, family, culture, individualism

国际化:贸易优势、竞争力

International: trade advantages, competitiveness

4. 根据步骤 1、2 和 3 进行预测

4. Make a Prediction Based on Steps 1, 2, and 3

让我们以一个负债累累、陷入政治僵局的国家为例——以 1990 年的美国为例。假设你在 1990 年,你是苏黎世银行的瑞士银行家 Franz Danninger。您正在考虑是否应该将客户的资金作为全球投资组合的一部分投资于美国。接下来是——从广义上讲——MBA 会做出决定的分析类型。

Let’s take a country that is deep in debt and mired in political gridlock—as an example, the United States of America in 1990. Assume that you are in 1990 and that you are Franz Danninger, a Swiss banker at the Bank of Zurich. You are considering whether you should invest your clients’ money in the United States as part of your global portfolio. What follows is—in a broad sense—the type of analysis an MBA would do to decide.

 

 

1、分析美国过去的表现。

1. Analyze the past performance of the United States.

外部措施。1990 年,美国贸易赤字从 1987 年的 1500 亿美元减少到 600 亿美元。美元兑其他主要货币表现出小幅但持续走弱。在过去五年中,通货膨胀率一直稳定在 2% 至 5% 的低水平,几乎没有升温的迹象。同样,失业率一直保持在每年 5% 到 6% 的低水平。

External Measures. In 1990 the U.S. trade deficit was reduced to $60 billion, down from a huge $150 billion in 1987. The U.S. dollar has shown small but consistent weakening versus the other major currencies. Inflation has been kept steady at a low 2 to 5 percent over the past five years, with little indication of its heating up. In the same way, unemployment has been kept low, between 5 and 6 percent a year.

内部措施。在 5.4 万亿美元的经济体中,国民生产总值仅增长了 1%。经济规模世界第一,是日本的两倍,德国的四倍,英国的七倍。

Internal Measures. GNP increased a sluggish 1 percent in an economy of $5.4 trillion. The economy is the largest in the world, twice that of Japan, four times that of Germany, and seven times that of the United Kingdom.

供应方。利率一直在稳步下降,最优惠贷款利率为 8% 至 9%。由于通货膨胀水平较低,因此被认为是高水平。

Supply Side. Interest rates have steadily been falling with the prime lending rate at 8 to 9 percent. Because of the low level of inflation, that is considered high.

需求方。个人消费在 1990 年呈现 6% 的小幅但稳定增长。人口中的收入分配不均。少数民族人口参与劳动力市场的比例低于过去。

Demand Side. Personal consumption has shown small but steady growth of 6 percent in 1990. The distribution of income among the population is uneven. Minority populations are participating at a lesser percentage in the labor market than they had in the past.

社交方面。没有大规模的人口外流或涌入。出生率低,人口增长率接近于零,这是一个繁荣的工业化国家的标志。所有儿童都可以接受公共教育,但文盲是许多学生和成人的问题。

Social Side. There has been no major exodus or influx of people. The birth rate is low and population growth is near zero, a sign of a prosperous industrialized nation. Public education is available to all children, but illiteracy is a problem with many students and adults.

从这些统计数据中,您得出该国经济不景气的结论。它有一些问题,但不是什么灾难性的。了解了一些历史之后,下一步就是看看美国领导人想把这个国家带到哪里去。

From that collection of statistics, you conclude that the country’s economy is sluggish. It has some problems, but not anything cataclysmic. With some history under your belt, the next step is to see where the American leaders want to take the nation.

 

 

2. 确定美国的战略。

2. Identify America’s strategy.

目标。美国以其在世界事务中的领导地位而闻名。在 1981 年和 1982 年的经济衰退之后,政治家和商人集中精力提高国家工业基地的生产力。自 1983 年以来,由于自动化、新的管理实践和裁员,工厂生产率每年增长 3.1%。华盛顿领导层并未将经济公平作为优先事项。领导人谈论“涓滴”经济学;这个理论表明,如果经济表现良好,每个人最终都会参与。

Goals. The United States is known for its leadership in world affairs. After the recession of 1981 and 1982, politicians and businesspeople focused on making the nation’s industrial base more productive. Factory productivity has increased 3.1 percent a year since 1983 as the result of automation, new management practices, and layoffs. The Washington leadership has not made economic equity a priority. Leaders talk about “trickle down” economics; this theory suggests that if the economy is doing well, everyone will eventually participate.

 

 

政策。1990 年立法机关和行政部门的支出政策继续显示出很少的财政限制。预算赤字仍然高达 2200 亿美元。连续十年的超支增加了令人担忧的 2 万亿美元额外债务。1990 年,每一联邦美元中有 14 美分用于支付该债务的利息。由独立的美联储控制的货币政策通过限制货币供应、保持低通胀但保持高利率显示出极大的克制。由于该国认为自己是一个自由贸易国家,因此联邦政府不遵循正式的贸易政策。问题逐案处理。

Policies. The spending policies of the legislature and the executive branch continue to show little fiscal restraint in 1990. The budget deficit remains at a high $220 billion. A steady decade of overspending has added a worrisome $2 trillion of additional debt. In 1990, fourteen cents of every federal dollar went to pay interest on that debt. Monetary policy, controlled by an independent Federal Reserve, shows great restraint by keeping a lid on the money supply, keeping inflation low but interest rates high. Because the nation considers itself a free-trading nation, the federal government does not follow a formal trade policy. Issues are dealt with case by case.

 

 

3.分析美国的背景。

3. Analyze the context of the United States.

身体的。美国是世界上最大的国家之一。它拥有丰富的自然资源,但需要进口石油和其他金属。

Physical. The United States is one of the largest nations in the world. It is rich in natural resources, but it needs to import oil and other metals.

 

 

政治的。美国政府被认为是世界上最稳定的宪政民主国家。它是一个联邦共和国,权力由中央政府和五十个州政府共享。腐败确实存在,但保持警惕的媒体将其控制在最低限度。

Political. The U.S. government is considered the world’s most stable constitutional democracy. It is a federal republic with power shared between the central government and the fifty state governments. Corruption does exist, but a vigilant press keeps it to a minimum.

 

 

机构。美国是一个先进的工业化国家。政府机构、商业、劳工、宗教和农业的基础设施像大多数发达的官僚机构一样存在和运作。

Institutions. The United States is an advanced industrialized nation. The infrastructure of governmental agencies, business, labor, religion, and agriculture exists and operates like most developed bureaucracies.

 

 

思想。美国将政府视为人民的公仆。它的宪法赋予个人明确的权利法案,政府不能删减。美国的文化反映了它的移民历史和资本主义经济。它是多种多样的。对物质财富的深深尊重是这个社会的共同点。

Ideological. The United States views the government as a servant of the people. Its constitution gives individuals an explicit Bill of Rights, which the government cannot abridge. The culture of the United States is a reflection of its immigrant past and its capitalist economics. It is diverse. A common thread of deep respect for material wealth pervades this society.

 

 

国际的。美国作为世界上最大的消费市场,在世界贸易中占据主导地位。凭借稳定的美元和低通胀,它继续是一个强劲的经济体。

International. Being the largest consumer market in the world, the United States plays a dominant role in world trade. With a stable dollar and low inflation it continues to be a strong economy.

 

 

4. 做出预测和投资决策。

4. Make a prediction and an investment decision.

作为 Franz Danninger,您的分析和预测可能如下: 与瑞士一样,美国是一个稳定的工业化国家,在其商业周期中正经历一段增长乏力的时期。我,Franz Danninger,建议我们苏黎世银行保持对美国经济的敞口。应保持在美国股票和债券市场的投资。我认为没有比我们客户资金更好的避风港了。

As Franz Danninger, your analysis and prediction might be as follows: Like Switzerland, the United States is a stable industrialized country that is experiencing a sluggish patch of growth in its business cycle. I, Franz Danninger, suggest that we at the Bank of Zurich maintain our exposure to the U.S. economy. Investments should be maintained in the U.S. stock and bond markets. I do not see any better safe haven for our clients’ funds.

如果 Franz 对未来做出多项预测,MBA 会称之为情景分析。支持衰退预测的相同事实也可以支持美国经济繁荣或萧条的情景。精明的经理应该制定应急计划,以防这些替代方案之一开始出现。

If Franz were to make several forecasts of the future, MBAs would call that scenario analysis. The same facts supporting a recessionary prediction could also support a scenario of an economic boom or bust in the United States. An astute manager should make contingency plans in the event that one of these alternative scenarios begins to develop.

国家分析是一种多用途工具,它提供了一种方法来整理一个国家可用的所有经济数据。作为一名新的 MBA,你现在拥有全球战略家在跨国公司董事会中使用的框架,以及世界上最负盛名的投资公司的经济分析部门所使用的框架。

Country analysis is a multipurpose tool that provides a way to sort out all the reams of economic data that are available on a nation. As a new MBA you now have the framework that global strategists use in the boardrooms of multinational corporations and that economic analysis departments of the world’s most prestigious investment firms employ.

 

 

经济学回顾

ECONOMICS IN REVIEW

正如本章所示,如果你只想了解 MBA 基础知识,微观经济学和宏观经济学并没有那么复杂。

As this chapter has shown, microeconomics and macroeconomics are not that complicated if you wish to know only the MBA basics.

 

 

微观经济学。在均衡价格下供给等于需求。消费者试图最小化机会成本并最大化边际利润和效用。如果他们对价格变化做出反应,经济学家称他们的行为具有弹性。

Microeconomics. Supply equals demand at an equilibrium price. Consumers try to minimize opportunity costs and maximize marginal profits and utility. If they respond to price changes, economists call their behavior elastic.

 

 

宏观经济学。凯恩斯主义者喜欢政府和消费者支出。弗里德曼和他的货币主义者朋友相信货币供应量的控制。看起来两个阵营都有道理,但都没有解释经济如何运作的角落。无论如何,均衡价格下的供给等于需求。他们同意的就这么多。

Macroeconomics. Keynesians like government and consumer spending. Friedman and his monetarist friends place their faith in the control of the money supply. It looks like both camps have valid points to make, but neither has a corner on explaining how economies work. In any case, supply equals demand at an equilibrium price. That much they agree on.

 

 

全球宏观经济学。世界经济体使用国际收支会计来跟踪他们的活动。如果他们做得好,通货膨胀率保持低位,经济增长保持稳定,外汇储备保持高位,本币保持价值。否则,一个国家可能最终会陷入像黎巴嫩这样的经济泥潭。如果您想成为水晶球读者并想预测您最喜欢的国家的发展方向,请使用国家分析框架进行预测。

Global Macroeconomics. The economies of the world keep track of their activity using balance of payments accounting. If they are doing a good job, inflation stays low, economic growth remains steady, foreign reserves stay high, and the local currency maintains its value. If not, a country may end up in an economic quagmire like Lebanon. If you want to be a crystal ball reader and want to predict where your favorite nation is headed, use the country analysis framework to make a prediction.

 

 

关键经济学要点

KEY ECONOMICS TAKEAWAYS

微观经济学——研究个人、家庭、公司和行业的经济行为

Microeconomics—The study of individual, family, company, and industry economic behavior

宏观经济学——研究整个经济体的行为

Macroeconomics—The study of the behavior of entire economies

均衡——供给量等于需求量且确定双方同意的价格的点

Equilibrium—The point at which the quantity supplied equals the quantity demanded and a mutually agreeable price is determined

边际收益和成本——生产和销售一个额外单位的增加收益和成本

Marginal Revenue and Cost—The added revenue and cost of producing and selling one additional unit

弹性——价格变化导致的买家需求变化

Elasticity—The change in buyers’ demand as a result of price changes

市场结构——一个行业的竞争环境由卖家的数量和产品的特性决定

Market Structures—The competitive environment in an industry determined by the number of sellers and the product’s characteristics

凯恩斯主义理论——支出和消费是经济的主要驱动力。

Keynesian Theory—Spending and consumption are the main drivers of an economy.

货币主义理论——货币供应量的规模和增长决定了经济的增长。金钱让世界运转。

Monetarist Theory—The size and growth of the money supply determines the growth of the economy. Money makes the world go around.

国民生产总值——一个经济体在一段时间内生产的最终产品和服务的总量

Gross National Product—The total amount of final goods and services produced by an economy over a period of time

支出乘数——货币在经济体中流通的经济涟漪效应:一个人的支出就是另一个人的收入。

The Spending Multiplier—The economic ripple effect of money being circulated in an economy: spending for one person is income for another.

财政政策——政府的支出政策

Fiscal Policy—A government’s spending policy

货币政策——政府控制货币供应和利率的政策

Monetary Policy—A government’s policy of controlling the supply of money and interest rates

亚当·斯密——1776 年在《国富论》中写到资本主义“看不见的手”的经济学家

Adam Smith—The economist who wrote about the “invisible hand” of capitalism in The Wealth of Nations in 1776

Arthur Laffer — 20 世纪 80 年代的经济学家,他开发了拉弗曲线,表明较低的税率会带来更高的税收收入

Arthur Laffer—1980s economist who developed the Laffer curve, which illustrated that lower tax rates would result in higher tax revenues

国际收支——一个国家外汇流入和流出的核算

Balance of Payments—The accounting for the inflows and outflows of foreign exchange of a country

国家分析——组织经济数据和预测国家前景的系统框架

Country Analysis—A systematic framework to organize economic data and make predictions about the prospects of a nation

第九天

Day 9

战略

STRATEGY

策略主题

Strategy Topics

七S模型

The Seven S Model

价值链

The Value Chain

整合和扩张战略

Integration and Expansion Strategies

行业分析

Industry Analysis

竞争策略

Competitive Strategies

信令

Signaling

投资组合策略

Portfolio Strategies

全球化

Globalization

协同作用

Synergy

渐进主义

Incrementalism

战略是 MBA 课程中最令人兴奋的课程,因为它让您有机会运用所有新技能。大多数教授坚持在完成大部分核心课程后教授战略,因为它需要所有 MBA 学科的背景。战略课程让学生担任董事会主席,MBA 喜欢这种感觉。正如我的战略教授告诉我们的那样,接触战略概念会改变你看待企业的方式。战略思维涉及对企业与其行业、竞争对手以及短期和长期商业环境相关的综合分析。归根结底,战略是公司为实现其目标而制定的计划。

Strategy is the most exciting course in the MBA curriculum because it gives you the chance to put all your new skills to work. Most professors insist that strategy be taught after completing most of the core courses, because it requires a background in all the MBA disciplines. Strategy classes place students in the chairman of the board’s chair, and MBAs love that feeling. As my strategy professor told us, exposure to strategy concepts alters the way you look at businesses. Strategic thinking involves a comprehensive analysis of a business in relation to its industry, its competitors, and the business environment in both the short and the long term. Ultimately, strategy is a company’s plan to achieve its goals.

公司管理层通常不清楚他们想要什么或如何实现。在这种情况下,董事会讨论可能类似于刘易斯卡罗尔的爱丽丝梦游仙境中的场景:

Corporate managements often do not know clearly what they want or how they’ll get there. When this is the situation, a boardroom discussion could resemble a scene from Lewis Carroll’s Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland:

 

 

爱丽丝:请你告诉我,我应该从这里走哪条路?

ALICE: Would you tell me, please, which way ought I to go from here?

柴郡猫:这在很大程度上取决于您想去哪里。

CHESHIRE CAT: That depends a good deal on where you want to get to.

爱丽丝:我不太在乎在哪里——。

ALICE: I don’t much care where—.

柴郡猫:那你走哪条路都没关系。

CHESHIRE CAT: Then it doesn’t matter which way you go.

公司需要深思熟虑的战略计划,否则他们将不可避免地成为市场的受害者,而不是塑造市场的胜利者。

Corporations need well-thought-out strategic plans or inevitably they will become victims of the marketplace instead of being the victors who shape it.

 

 

战略作为组织的一部分:7S 模型

STRATEGY AS PART OF AN ORGANIZATION: THE SEVEN S MODEL

战略计划不能凭空形成;它们必须适合组织,就像营销计划必须适合产品一样。战略规划有两个不同的阶段:形成实施。战略家在制定计划时应始终着眼于实施。Thomas J. Peters,In Search of Excellence fame,创造了Seven S 模型表明战略应该交织在组织结构中。实际上,彼得斯与罗伯特 H. 沃特曼 (Robert H. Waterman) 和朱利安 R. 菲利普斯 (Julien R. Phillips) 一起创建了这个模型,但通常将大部分功劳归功于杰出的演讲者彼得斯。他们的模型提供了一个将公司视为一个整体的结构,以便可以诊断组织的问题并制定和实施战略。如果战略需要彻底重组,则称为再造。如果不是,它被描述为组织修补。七个 S 是:

Strategic plans cannot be formed in a vacuum; they must fit organizations, just as marketing plans must be suited to products. Two separate stages characterize strategic planning: formation and implementation. Strategists should always devise their plans with an eye toward implementation. Thomas J. Peters, of In Search of Excellence fame, created the Seven S model showing that strategy ought to be interwoven within the fabric of an organization. Actually Peters created the model with Robert H. Waterman and Julien R. Phillips, but Peters, an exceptional speaker, is usually given most of the credit. Their model provides a structure with which to consider a company as a whole, so that the organization’s problems may be diagnosed and a strategy may be developed and implemented. If a strategy requires radical reorganization, it’s called reengineering. If not, it is described as organizational tinkering. The Seven S’s are:

  • 结构
  • Structure
  • 系统
  • Systems
  • 技能
  • Skills
  • 风格
  • Style
  • 职员
  • Staff
  • 最高目标/共同价值观
  • Superordinate Goals/Shared Values
  • 战略
  • Strategy

该图说明了影响组织变革能力的要素的“多样性”和“相互关联性”。图中的另一个显着特征是“没有起点或隐含的层次结构”。在任何一个组织中,不同的因素可能会推动业务发展。在一个“优秀”的组织中,每个 S 都与其他 S 相辅相成,并始终如一地推进公司的目标。这与营销计划没有任何不同,如第一章所述,营销计划应该内部一致相互支持。七 S 模型是一个有用的工具来组织一个人的思想,以便定义和有效地解决复杂的问题。

The diagram illustrates the “multiplicity” and “interconnectedness” of elements that influence an organization’s ability to change. The other notable feature in the diagram is that there is “no starting point or implied hierarchy.” In any one organization, different factors may drive the business. In an “excellent” organization, each of the S’s complements the others and consistently advances the company’s goal. This is not any different from a marketing plan, which should be internally consistent and mutually supportive, as explained in the first chapter. The Seven S model is a helpful tool to organize one’s thoughts in order to define and effectively attack complicated problems.

七个模型

THE SEVEN S MODEL

图片

转载自Business Horizo​​ns,1980 年 6 月。© 1980 印第安纳大学商学院基金会版权所有。经许可使用。

Reprinted from Business Horizons, June 1980. © 1980 by the Foun-dation for the School of Business at Indiana University. Used with permission.

 

 

如果您还记得组织行为一章中概述的基本组织模型,那么 7 S 应该看起来很熟悉。战略理论家借鉴其他 MBA 学科的想法和概念并将其整合。这里出现了相同的 S,但有一些添加和删除。

If you recall the basic organizational model outlined in the organizational behavior chapter, the Seven S’s should look familiar. Strategy theorists borrow ideas and concepts from other MBA disciplines and integrate them. Here the same S’s appear but with some additions and deletions.

 

 

结构。公司的结构会影响其战略规划及其变革能力。正如 OB 一章中所解释的,公司的结构可能以客户或地域为重点。例如,如果一家公司决定改变其战略以更好地响应其客户,它可能需要采用一种客户结构,这将引导公司的所有技能来满足客户的特定需求。就电动工具制造商而言,竞争可能要求改变功能形式,将制造、销售和财务分开,形成一个拥有两个客户部门的组织。一个部门将服务于家庭消费者和其他工业客户。这些细分市场有不同的需求,而两个专注的部门可以最有效地满足这些需求。在特殊情况下,可以叠加矩阵等临时结构,形成擅长开发新产品的项目团队。

Structure. A corporation’s structure affects its strategic planning and its ability to change. As explained in the OB chapter, a company’s structure may have a customer or a geographic focus. For instance, if a company decides to alter its strategy to become more responsive to its customers, it may need to adopt a customer structure, which will channel all the skills of a company to meet customers’ specific needs. In the case of a power tool manufacturer, the competition may demand a change from a functional form, which separates manufacturing, sales, and finance, to an organization with two customer divisions. One division would serve household consumers and the other industrial customers. These market segments have different needs that could most effectively be serviced by two focused divisions. In special situations, a temporary structure such as a matrix could be overlaid to form project teams skilled in developing new products.

 

 

战略。这是指公司为响应或预期其外部环境、客户和竞争对手的变化而计划采取的行动。公司可以使用的战略范围是本章的重点。

Strategy. This refers to the actions that a company plans in response to or in anticipation of changes in its external environment, its customers, and its competitors. The spectrum of strategies a company can use is the focus of this chapter.

 

 

风格。听起来像是对基本组织模式的新增,但这个S与文化的关系更为密切。文化或风格是行为、思想、信仰和符号的总和,随着时间的推移,这些行为、思想、信仰和符号在整个组织中传达给人们。由于很难改变公司根深蒂固的文化,因此在制定新战略时牢记这一点很重要。如果一家消费品公司有保守倾向,则需要毫无疑问地说服它相信新产品的功效或可行性。从历史上看,宝洁公司属于创新缓慢的类别,但最近它的行为一直在改变。在将 Bounce 织物柔软剂推向全国之前,宝洁公司已经试销了多年。相比之下,它现在几个月就能推出新产品。

Style. It sounds like a new addition to the basic organizational model, but this S is more closely related to culture. Culture or style is the aggregate of behaviors, thoughts, beliefs, and symbols that are conveyed to people throughout an organization over time. Since it is hard to change a company’s ingrained culture, it is important to bear it in mind when developing a new strategy. If a consumer products company has a conservative bent, it will need to be convinced, beyond a shadow of a doubt, of the efficacy or viability of a new product. Historically, Procter & Gamble was in the slow-to-innovate category, but lately its behavior has been changing. P&G had test-marketed Bounce fabric softener for years before introducing it across the country. By contrast it rolls out new products in months now.

 

 

职员。没有温暖的身体,就没有同伴。彼得斯所说的员工是指人力资源系统包括评估、培训、工资和无形资产,如员工积极性、士气和态度。有了积极进取的员工队伍,公司就能够适应和竞争。最高管理层经常忽略这个 S,因为他们一方面觉得它不重要,另一方面又太敏感了。“让人力资源部门来处理”是普遍的态度。然而,这种软性因素是必不可少的,因为如果没有员工的合作,公司将无法取得成功。

Staff. With no warm bodies, there’s no company. By staff Peters means the human resource systems, which include appraisals, training, wages, and the intangibles, such as employee motivation, morale, and attitude. With a motivated workforce, companies are able to adapt and compete. Top management often ignores this S because they feel that it is not significant on one hand and too touchy-feely on the other. “Let the human resources department deal with it” is the common attitude. This soft factor is essential, however, because without employee cooperation a company will not have the ability to succeed.

 

 

技巧。与员工密切相关的是企业所拥有的独特能力和才能。例如,技能的范围可能从员工讲西班牙语的能力到对统计数据的理解,再到计算机知识。某些公司在特定领域很强大。杜邦和3M以其高超的研发能力而著称。IBM 和通用电气的优势在于它们能够为其产品提供卓越的服务支持。跨国公司需要具有语言技能并深入了解其他文化和习俗的人才。例如,美国运通通过在其竞争市场中雇用知识渊博的国民来获得这些技能。

Skills. Closely related to staff are the distinctive abilities and talents that a company possesses. Skills may range from the ability of a staff to speak Spanish, to an understanding of statistics, to computer literacy, for instance. Certain companies are strong in particular areas. Du Pont and 3M are known for their superb research and development capabilities. IBM’s and General Electric’s strengths lie in their ability to provide superior service support for their products. International companies need people with language skills and in-depth knowledge of other cultures and customs. American Express for one acquires these skills by hiring knowledgeable nationals in the markets in which it competes.

 

 

系统。组织运作和收集信息的正式和非正式程序构成了公司的系统。正如我所提到的,彼得斯认为与员工的人事部分相关的系统对于这个 S,Peters 关注的是分配和控制资金和材料以及收集信息的系统。

Systems. The procedures, both formal and informal, by which an organization operates and gathers information constitute the systems of a company. As I mentioned, Peters considers the systems relating to personnel part of staff. With this S, Peters is concerned with the systems that allocate and control money and materials as well as gather information.

当一家公司在市场上面临重大挑战时,管理层必须拥有有关其运营、客户和竞争的详细数据,以确定情况的严重性。管理会计系统提供有关生产和成本的运营数据。市场研究和销售跟踪系统提供有关客户的信息。竞争情报系统可以洞察其他公司的动态。

When a company confronts a major challenge in the marketplace, management must have detailed data about its operations, customers, and competition to determine the gravity of the situation. Managerial accounting systems provide operational data about production and costs. Marketing research and sales tracking systems give information about the customers. Competitive intelligence systems provide insight as to what other companies are up to.

 

 

上级目标。最后一个 S 是组织的核心。根据彼得斯的说法,“上级这个词的字面意思是更高阶的。最高目标是指导概念——价值观和愿望,通常是不成文的——超越了企业目标的传统陈述。“最高目标是建立企业的基本理念。” 例如,彼得斯在 1980 年写道,惠普的最高目标是“在组织的各个层级拥有创新人才”。3M 的最高目标是生产“新产品”,而 IBM 的最高目标是“客户服务”。

Superordinate Goals. This last S is at the core of an organization. According to Peters, “The word superordinate literally means of higher order. Superordinate goals are the guiding concepts—values and aspirations, often unwritten—that go beyond the conventional statements of corporate objectives. “Superordinate goals are the fundamental ideas around which a business is built.” For example, Peters wrote in 1980 that Hewlett-Packard’s superordinate goal was to have “innovative people at all levels in the organization.” 3M’s superordinate goal was to produce “new products,” while IBM’s was “customer service.”

 

 

使命宣言。当公司谈论他们的目标时,经常会提到这些。使命宣言应该是对目标和优先事项的简短陈述。不幸的是,它们通常是冗长、乏味且乏味的文档。当高级管理人员从十大学校之一的昂贵的管理人员课程返回时,他们通常会为此目的组建一个使命宣言特别工作组或聘请一名顾问。这个练习有一个很大的元素是“与时俱进”。如果一家公司在其年度报告中加入了使命宣言,那么它的所有竞争对手都会去编造他们的使命宣言。克莱斯勒和金宝汤(汤)的年度报告拥有写得很好的使命宣言:

Mission Statements. These are often mentioned when companies speak about their goals. A mission statement should be a short and concise statement of goals and priorities. Unfortunately they are often long, bland, and tedious documents. When senior executives return from expensive executive programs from one of the Top Ten schools, frequently they form a mission statement task force or hire a consultant for this purpose. This exercise has a large element of “keeping up with the Joneses.” If a company incorporates a mission statement in its annual report, then all of its competitors go off to cook up theirs. Chrysler’s and Campbell’s (soup) annual reports boast well-written mission statements:

 

 

克莱斯勒的首要目标是让消费者满意。我们通过卓越的工程设计、创新的产品、高质量和优质的服务来做到这一点。我们作为一个团队来做。

Chrysler’s primary goal is to achieve consumer satisfaction. We do it through engineering excellence, innovative products, high quality, and superior service. And we do it as a team.

 

 

我们的目标是通过营销质量和价值领先的消费食品,最大限度地提高盈利能力和股东价值;并在我们竞争的每个类别中建立和捍卫第一或第二的位置。

Our goals are to maximize profitability and shareholder value by marketing consumer food products that lead in quality and value; and to build and defend the first or second position in every category in which we compete.

 

 

他们的目标很明确。克莱斯勒专注于消费者满意度,而金宝汤的主要目标是让股东满意。使命宣言的措辞通常是针对当时最重要的支持者而精心设计的。克莱斯勒专注于增加销量。金宝汤由 Dorrance 家族控制,在撰写声明之时据说公司的管理完全是为了家族的利益,而不是为了公众股东。除了创建过程中涉及的政治因素外,使命宣言可以作为公司最高目标的有用替代品,如果它没有的话。

Their goals were clear. Chrysler focused on consumer satisfaction, while Campbell’s main goal was to satisfy its shareholders. The wording of the mission statement is often crafted to address the most important constituency at the time. Chrysler focused on making even more sales. Controlled by the Dorrance family, Campbell’s wrote its statement at a time when the company was said to be managed for the sole benefit of the family, and not for the public shareholders. Apart from the politics involved in its creation, a mission statement can be a useful surrogate for a firm’s superordinate goal, if it doesn’t have one.

 

 

一个 SEVEN S 模型示例

A SEVEN S MODEL EXAMPLE

当一家公司的所有 S 都采取一致行动时,它可以成为一个强大的竞争对手。苹果电脑早期的成功可以说是源于其S的平衡。它的创始人培养了一种创业风格,吸引了最聪明、最有创造力的员工。凭借尖端的技术技能,创始人将 Apple 组织成一个松散的公司矩阵结构,以适应人们的个性和创造新产品的任务。Apple 开发了强化系统来奖励创新和跟踪运营。他们的奖励支持 Apple 团队合作和乐趣的共同价值观,以实现其最高目标— 在每个家庭中放置最好的用户友好型计算机。Apple 的战略是为家庭、学校和图形市场创建一个专有的、用户友好的系统。所有 S 都很好地结合在一起,并且相互支持其目标。

When all of a company’s S’s move in concert, it can be a formidable competitor. The early success of Apple Computer can be said to have been derived from the balance of its S’s. It had an entrepreneurial style fostered by its founders that attracted the brightest and most creative staff. With their cutting-edge technological skills, the founders organized Apple in a loose corporate matrix structure that fit the personalities of the people and the task of creating new products. Apple developed reinforcing systems to reward innovation and to track operations. Their rewards supported Apple’s shared values of teamwork and fun to achieve its superordinate goal—placing the best user-friendly computer in every household. Apple’s strategy was to create a proprietary, user-friendly system for the home, school, and graphics markets. All the S’s fit together well and were mutually supportive of its goals.

对您最喜欢的组织进行自己的 MBA 分析。在一张纸上列出七个 S,然后深入研究。拥有 MBA 学位的战略顾问会做与您现在可以用七个 S 模型做的完全相同的事情。但是,一家咨询公司会为这项研究附上精美的计算机图形,将其放入活页夹中,并向您的公司收取一笔不小的费用。

Do your own MBA analysis of your favorite organization. List the Seven S’s on a sheet of paper and dig in. A strategic consultant with an MBA would do exactly the same thing you can now do with the Seven S model. But a consulting firm would accompany the study with fancy computer graphics, put it in a binder, and charge your company a small fortune.

 

 

价值链和整合

THE VALUE CHAIN AND INTEGRATION

当 MBA 开始对任何公司进行战略分析时,第一个问题应该是“它从事什么业务?” 价值链和整合概念有助于回答这个问题。

When an MBA begins the strategic analysis of any company, one of the first questions should be “What business is it in?” The value chain and integration concepts help to answer that question.

 

 

价值链

VALUE CHAIN

在回答了基本问题之后,战略分析师的下一步是评估公司为其产品增加的价值。服装行业的价值链是这样的:

After the basic question has been answered, the next step for a strategic analyst is to assess the value a company adds to its products. The apparel industry’s value chain looks like this:

 

 

羊毛 → 纤维 → 纱线 → 布料 → 服装 → 分销 → 零售 → 消费者

Wool → Fiber → Yarn → Cloth → Clothing → Distribution → Retailing → Consumer

 

 

在链中的每个环节,渠道参与者都会在产品到达消费者手中时为产品增加价值。首先,必须生产、收获或开采原材料。这些生产要素——羊毛、棉花和化学品——结合起来制造服装。一旦生产出来,营销人员必须促销,分销商运输,零售商将服装卖给消费者。

At each link in the chain, a channel participant adds value to the product as it makes its way to the consumer. First, the raw materials must be produced, harvested, or mined. These factors of production—wool, cotton, and chemicals—are combined to manufacture clothing. Once it is produced, marketers must promote, distributors transport, and retailers sell the clothing to the consumer.

 

 

一体化

INTEGRATION

前向和后向整合。一家公司可以在价值链的任何环节发挥作用。当一家公司在价值链更下游的领域运营时,它被称为面向消费者的前向整合。例如,如果果园所有者种植水果并将其出售给公众,他将被视为对买方的前向整合。种植者可以决定以低于杂货店的价格出售或以杂货店的价格出售并赚取额外利润。

Forward and Backward Integration. A company can perform at any link in the value chain. When a company operates in areas further down the value chain, it is said to be forwardly integrated toward the consumer. For example, if an orchard owner grew and sold his fruit to the public, he would be considered forwardly integrated toward the buyer. The grower could decide to sell at a lower price than the grocery store or to sell at the grocery’s price and make the additional profit.

如果一家企业在靠近原材料的地区开展业务,则该公司被称为后向整合。拥有自己的森林和造纸设施的国际纸业将被归类为后向一体化。

If a business operates in areas closer to the raw materials, then the company is said to be backwardly integrated. International Paper, which owns its own forests and paper-manufacturing facilities, would be classified as being backwardly integrated.

您可以将公司视为前向整合或后向整合,具体取决于您在价值链中查看该公司的位置。如果您将果园所有者主要视为种植者,那么您可能会将他的业务视为正向供应链的零售端整合。如果你认为他的主要业务是向公众零售水果,那么你可以说他的业务是后向整合的,因为他种的是他卖的。国际纸业向后整合到其林地业务,并向前整合到其消费纸产品制造和分销活动。

You can see a company as either forwardly or backwardly integrated depending on the point in the value chain at which you view that company. If you consider the orchard owner primarily as a grower, then you might view his business as forwardly integrated toward the retailing end of the chain. If you believed that his main business was retailing fruit to the public, then you could say that his business is backwardly integrated because he grows what he sells. International Paper is backwardly integrated to its timberland operations and forwardly integrated to its consumer paper-product manufacturing and distribution activities.

 

 

林业 ←后向整合国际造纸前向整合→ 消费纸

Forestry ← Backward IntegrationInternational PaperForward Integration → Consumer Paper

 

 

纵向和横向整合。行业也可以纵向横向查看。垂直整合是指参与行业价值链多个层面的公司的术语。国际纸业是垂直整合的,因为它同时拥有树木和造纸厂。该术语可以描述向前向后整合的公司。关键是一家公司正在执行多项增值功能。

Vertical and Horizontal Integration. Industries can also be viewed vertically and horizontally. Vertically integrated is a term used for companies that participate at many levels of the value chain in an industry. International Paper is vertically integrated because it owns both the trees and the paper mills. The term can describe both forwardly and backwardly integrated companies. The key is that several value-adding functions are being performed by one firm.

埃克森美孚在 1999 年收购美孚时,收购了价值链中处于同一级别的竞争对手。这称为横向整合。埃克森美孚选择不转向其他增值活动。相反,埃克森美孚横盘或水平移动。如果新的埃克森美孚收购了 Apache Oil Exploration,它将实现垂直整合。在这个假设的案例中,一个新的价值函数将被添加到埃克森美孚在汽车行业的制造业务中。

When Exxon purchased Mobil in 1999, it acquired a competitor at the same level in the value chain. This is called horizontal integration. Exxon chose not to move to another value-adding activity. Instead Exxon moved sideways or horizontally. If the new Exxon-Mobil had bought Apache Oil Exploration, it would be vertically integrated. In this hypothetical case, a new value function would have been added to ExxonMobil’s manufacturing operations in the automobile industry.

图片

战略分析师审查行业的价值链,以确定当前和未来的竞争来源。当化工企业寻求更高的利润时,他们会提前整合到更高“附加值”的产品中,例如用于布料和地毯的纤维。有了杜邦这样的公司,链条的纤维环节变得更具竞争力。同样,The Limited 整合了价值链中的制造、分销和零售环节,在本已竞争激烈的服装行业中释放出更具竞争力的活动。

Strategic analysts review industries’ value chains to identify current and future sources of competition. When chemical companies sought higher profits, they forwardly integrated into higher “value added” products such as fibers for cloth and carpet. With the likes of Du Pont, the fiber link of the chain became more competitive. Similarly, The Limited integrated the manufacturing, distribution, and retailing links in the value chain, unleashing even more competitive activity in the already cutthroat apparel industry.

整合战略可能会带来明显的好处,例如确保投入和降低成本,但缺点包括更容易受到单一行业低迷的影响。公司的所有鸡蛋都放在一个篮子里。在经济不景气的时候,如果供应商是埃克森美孚,埃克森美孚炼油厂就无法从其石油供应商那里获得让步。同样,如果唯一的用户是公司本身,通用汽车也不能向其客户倾销过剩的发动机库存。

Integration strategies may result in obvious benefits such as secured inputs and lower costs, but the disadvantages include a higher exposure to the downturns in a single industry. All of the corporation’s eggs are in one basket. In lean times, an ExxonMobil refinery can’t squeeze concessions from its oil suppliers if the supplier is ExxonMobil. In the same way, General Motors can’t dump excess engine inventories on its customers if the only user is the company itself.

 

 

策略层次

LEVELS OF STRATEGY

战略是一个广义的术语。它通常描述任何着眼于“大局”的想法。事实上,它更复杂。需要考虑三个层次的策略:

Strategy is a broad term. It commonly describes any thinking that looks at the “big picture.” In fact, it is more complex. There are three levels of strategy to be considered:

 

 

职能战略——从事的价值活动

Functional Strategy—The value activities engaged in

商业战略——如何应对竞争、策略

Business Strategy—How to fight the competition, tactics

公司战略——我应该从事哪些业务?

Corporate Strategy—What businesses should I be in?

 

 

戴上战略帽时,你必须问自己,“我希望在什么层次上思考?功能性的、商业性的还是企业性的?”

When putting on the strategy hat, you must ask yourself, “At what level do I wish to think? Functional, business, or corporate?”

 

 

职能战略

FUNCTIONAL STRATEGY

职能战略是管理层为其业务选择的运营方法和“增值”活动。例如,Altria Group 的 Philip Morris 的职能战略一直是通过利用最先进的加工技术来降低成本。如果 Philip Morris 觉得容易受到单一烟草供应商的影响,那么一个好的职能战略将要求它使用多个供应商。

Functional strategies are those operational methods and “value-adding” activities that management chooses for its business. The functional strategy of Altria Group’s Philip Morris, for example, has been to lower costs by utilizing the most advanced processing technologies. If Philip Morris felt vulnerable to a single supplier of tobacco, a good functional strategy would dictate that it use multiple suppliers.

 

 

经营策略

BUSINESS STRATEGY

经营战略是企业当前参与的行业竞争的作战计划。它们比职能战略处于更高的层次,但企业的经营方式和竞争方式之间显然存在重叠。Philip Morris 的商业战略一直是通过在商店货架上堆满许多不同品牌并在广告上投入巨资来推广其品牌来击败竞争对手。使用这些策略,大型烟草公司保持市场份额并防止新的竞争对手在其行业中立足。

Business strategies are those battle plans used to fight the competition in the industry that a company currently participates in. They are on a higher level than functional strategies, but there is obviously an overlap between how a company operates and how it competes. Philip Morris’s business strategy has been to beat its competition by crowding store shelves with many different brands and by spending heavily on advertising to promote its brands. Using these strategies, the large tobacco companies preserve market share and prevent new competitors from gaining a foothold in their industry.

 

 

企业战略

CORPORATE STRATEGY

公司战略着眼于整个商业机会。菲利普莫里斯将公司名称更改为奥驰亚就表明了这一点。奥驰亚的企业战略使公司实现多元化,从烟草产品转向消费品。奥驰亚的管理人员审查了烟草业的增长潜力、法律环境和消费者健康意识的提高,并得出结论,从事更“健康”的业务是明智的。它对 General Foods、Kraft、Nabisco 和 Miller Brewing 的收购就是考虑到这一企业战略。到 2009 年,奥驰亚出售了所有这些业务以最大化股东价值,因为当烟草的法律环境变得不利时,市场发现菲利普莫里斯有毒。企业战略是动态的。

Corporate strategy looks at the whole gamut of business opportunities. Philip Morris’s corporate name change to Altria made it clear. Altria’s corporate strategy led the company to diversify away from tobacco products and toward consumer goods. Altria’s executives reviewed the tobacco industry’s growth potential, the legal environment, and the increased health awareness among consumers and concluded that it was wise to be in more “healthful” businesses. Its purchases of General Foods, Kraft, Nabisco, and Miller Brewing were made with that corporate strategy in mind. By 2009 Altria sold all those businesses to maximize shareholder value as the market found Philip Morris to be toxic when the legal environment for tobacco turned negative. Corporate strategy is dynamic.

 

 

扩张战略

EXPANSION STRATEGIES

学者们喜欢创建图表来展示他们的理论并使它们更易于使用。最简单的战略图之一是安索夫矩阵。HI Ansoff 于 1957 年创建它,作为对业务扩展路线进行分类的明确方法。决定战略分类的是产品对公司的新颖性以及公司在目标市场的经验。产品或市场的“新颖性”取决于它对考虑该战略的公司来说有多“新”,而不是由产品或市场本身的年龄决定。

Academics love to create diagrams to show off their theories and to make them easier to use. One of the simplest of the strategic diagrams is the Ansoff matrix. H. I. Ansoff created it in 1957 as a clear way to classify routes for business expansion. What determines the strategy classification is the newness of the product to the company and the firm’s experience with the intended market. The “newness” of the product or market is determined by how “new” it is to the company contemplating the strategy, not by the age of the product or market itself.

矩阵的强大之处在于它可以用于任何行业。安索夫创造了一个词汇表,用几句话来传达战略方向。如果 Hershey Foods Corporation 想在美国销售更多的巧克力棒,那将是一种渗透策略(现有产品,现有市场)。如果他们打算在东欧销售巧克力,那就是扩张战略(现有产品,新市场)。使用相关的多元化战略,好时可以开发一种新的泡泡糖并在美国销售(新产品,现有市场)。如果它想在尼泊尔销售汽车(新产品、新市场),那将是不相关的多元化。公司总是有一个扩展选项的菜单。问题是必须有足够的资金和管理时间才能有效扩张。如果好时的管理层决定向上述所有四个方向扩张,他们最终可能会面临许多管理不善的业务。执行一天的时间只有这么多。即使管理人员可以经营新企业,公司也可能缺乏足够的现金来为其提供足够的资金。

The power of the matrix lies in that it can be used for any industry. Ansoff created a vocabulary to communicate a strategic direction in a few words. If Hershey Foods Corporation wanted to sell more chocolate bars in the United States, that would be a penetration strategy (existing product, existing market). If they intended to sell chocolate in Eastern Europe, that’s an expansion strategy (existing product, new market). Using a related diversification strategy, Hershey could develop a new bubble gum and sell it in the United States (new product, existing market). If it wanted to sell automobiles in Nepal (new product, new market), that would be unrelated diversification. A company always has a menu of expansion options. The catch is that there has to be enough money and management time to expand effectively. If Hershey’s management were to decide to expand in all four of the directions described above, they could end up with many businesses that are inadequately managed. There are only so many hours in an executive day. Even if managers could run the new ventures, the company might lack the cash to fund them adequately.

安索夫矩阵

THE ANSOFF MATRIX

图片

经哈佛商业评论许可改编。H. Igor Ansoff 的“多元化战略”展览,第 35 卷,第 5 期(1957 年 9 月/10 月)。版权所有 © 1957 哈佛大学校长和院士;版权所有。

Adapted with the permission of Harvard Business Review. An exhibit from “Strategies for Diversification” by H. Igor Ansoff, Volume 35, No. 5 (September/October 1957). Copyright © 1957 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College; all rights reserved.

 

 

行业分析

INDUSTRY ANALYSIS

除了讨论扩张(整合和多样化)的语言,您还需要工具来帮助制定生存战略。哈佛大学的迈克尔波特发展了产业结构的五力理论来帮助企业在竞争激烈的环境中生存。他的著作《竞争战略》和《竞争优势》是战略思维的真正基石。如果您必须购买商业书籍(除此之外一),他们是购买的。波特的理论可用于为您当前的业务制定生存策略,以及评估其他行业对扩张的“吸引力”。波特提供了调查决定竞争程度并进而决定行业利润水平的五种力量的工具。

Along with the language to discuss expansion (integration and diversification), you also need tools to help develop a strategy to survive. Michael Porter of Harvard has developed the Five Forces Theory of Industry Structure to help companies survive in a competitive environment. His books, Competitive Strategy and Competitive Advantage, are truly cornerstones of strategic thinking. If you must buy business books (other than this one), they are the ones to purchase. Porter’s theories can be used to formulate survival strategies for your current business, as well as to evaluate the “attractiveness” of other industries for expansion. Porter offers tools for investigating the five forces that determine the level of competition and, consequently, the level of profit in an industry.

推动行业竞争的五种力量是:

The five forces that drive industry competition are:

 

 

  • 替代品的威胁
  • Threat of Substitutes
  • 新进入者的威胁
  • Threat of New Entrants
  • 供应商的议价能力
  • Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 买家的议价能力
  • Bargaining Power of Buyers
  • 竞争对手之间的竞争强度
  • Intensity of Rivalry Among Competitors

 

 

五力的例子

A FIVE-FORCES EXAMPLE

让我们将该模型应用到锡罐行业,波特认为该行业具有极强的竞争力,因为该行业内有多种力量在起作用。钢铁供应商有许多其他行业可以出售他们的钢铁。因此,罐头行业在市场上并没有太大的影响力。波特关注权力,即价值链中的一个参与者将其意志强加于链中其他参与者的能力。

Let’s apply the model to the tin can industry, which would be viewed by Porter as extremely competitive because of the array of forces at play within the industry. The suppliers of steel have many other industries to sell their steel to. Therefore, the canning industry does not have much leverage in the market. Porter focuses on power, the ability of one participant in the value chain to force its will on others in the chain.

罐头的用户主要是一小群大型食品加工商。用户可以利用他们的力量通过一个竞争对手与另一个竞争对手竞争来迫使罐头行业降低价格。

The users of cans are primarily the small group of large food processors. Users can wield their power to force the can industry to reduce prices by playing one competitor against another.

像 Del Monte 这样规模的加工商也可能威胁要用塑料包装代替罐头许多食品加工商已转向塑料包装。因此,随着罐头需求的减少,竞争加剧。

Processors the size of Del Monte can also threaten to substitute plastic packaging for cans. Many food processors have moved to plastic packaging. Consequently, competition intensifies as the demand for cans shrinks.

更糟糕的是,制罐机很容易被新进入者购买。以低成本和相对低的产量实现高效的罐头生产。如果利润率处于有吸引力的水平,这将为行业打开新的竞争者大门。Del Monte,如果愿意,可以购买包装设备并自己生产。由于制造技术广泛可用且价格合理,因此进入壁垒很低。进入的便利性增加了潜在竞争的水平。

Making matters worse is that can-making machines can easily be purchased by new entrants. Efficient can production is accomplished at low cost and at relatively low volumes. This opens the industry up to new competitors if profit margins are at an attractive level. Del Monte, if it wished, could buy packaging equipment and produce for itself. Because the manufacturing technology is widely available and reasonably priced, the barriers to entry are low. Ease of entry increases the level of potential competition.

波特的产业结构五力理论

PORTER’S FIVE FORCES THEORY OF INDUSTRY STRUCTURE

图片

经 Macmillan, Inc. 旗下的 The Free Press 许可转载,来自Michael E. Porter 的竞争优势:创造和维持卓越绩效。版权所有 © 1985 Michael E. Porter。

Reprinted with the permission of The Free Press, a division of Macmillan, Inc., from Competitive Advantage: Creating and Sustaining Superior Performance by Michael E. Porter. Copyright © 1985 by Michael E. Porter.

 

 

由于这四种力量使行业竞争激烈,第五种力量,即现有企业之间的竞争,同样激烈。销售人员非常了解他们的竞争对手,因为他们竞争来自不断减少的客户群的订单。这种竞争力包括激烈的价格战的可能性。在某些情况下,竞争对手会不顾对利润的影响,采取人为压低的价格,因为他们想不惜一切代价赢得客户。如波特模型所示,行业竞争强度来自所有五种力量对行业施加的压力。

Because these four forces make the industry highly competitive, the fifth force, rivalry among existing firms, is equally intense. Salespeople know their competition well because they compete for orders from a shrinking group of customers. This competitive force includes the possibility of bitter price wars. Under certain circumstances, competitors will adopt artificially low prices regardless of the impact on profit because they want to win the account at all cost. The industry’s competitive intensity results from all five forces exerting their pressures on the industry as seen in Porter’s model.

在这种竞争激烈的环境中,公司该怎么办?Crown Cork & Seal of Philadelphia 奉行为其产品增值的战略。它提供专家咨询服务来解决客户的包装问题,快速交货以降低客户的库存成本,以及定制和创新的包装修改以满足特定客户的需求。在成本方面,Crown Cork & Seal 专注于低成本生产,这使其产品定价具有竞争力。公司不仅活了下来,而且发展得很好。

What’s a company to do in this sort of competitive environment? Crown Cork & Seal of Philadelphia has pursued a strategy of adding value to its product. It offers expert consulting services to solve clients’ packaging problems, quick delivery to lower clients’ inventory costs, and customized and innovative packaging modifications to meet specific clients’ needs. On the cost side, Crown Cork & Seal has focused on low-cost production, which allows it to price its products competitively. Not only has the company survived, it has prospered.

波特的产业结构五力理论

PORTER’S FIVE FORCES THEORY OF INDUSTRY STRUCTURE

图片

经 Macmillan, Inc. 旗下的 The Free Press 许可转载,来自Michael E. Porter 的竞争优势:创造和维持卓越绩效。版权所有 © 1985 Michael E. Porter。

Reprinted with the permission of The Free Press, a division of Macmillan, Inc., from Competitive Advantage: Creating and Sustaining Superior Performance by Michael E. Porter. Copyright © 1985 by Michael E. Porter.

 

 

作为锡罐行业的潜在进入者,应该问:

As a prospective entrant into the tin can industry, one should ask:

 

 

这是一个对我有吸引力的行业吗?

Is this an attractive industry for me to be in?

我可以复制 Crown Cork & Seal 策略吗?

Can I duplicate the Crown Cork & Seal strategy?

如果我选择进入,我能在价格战中获胜吗?

Can I win in a price battle if I choose to enter?

如果我选择进入,我的盈利潜力是多少?

What is the profit potential for me if I choose to enter?

我的钱可以更好地投资于其他地方吗?

Could my money be better invested elsewhere?

 

 

无论是哪个行业,当经理人希望扩展到一个新领域时,都必须问同样的问题。即使不考虑扩张,波特模型也提供了关于如何在自己的行业内更有效地竞争的见解。请仔细阅读详细波特模型中五力的决定因素。这些是 MBA 为获得竞争优势而思考的问题。

Regardless of the industry, the same questions must be asked when a manager wishes to expand into a new field. Even if expansion is not contemplated, the Porter model offers insight on how to compete more effectively within one’s own industry. Please review the determinants of the Five Forces in the detailed Porter model very carefully. Those are the questions that MBAs ponder to gain competitive advantage.

一个行业中发挥作用的力量是动态的。战略的本质是了解当前的力量并利用它们为您带来优势。在废物处理方面,Waste Management Inc. 努力游说制定严格的环境法规。为什么?因为只有少数公司能够遵守它们。通过这种方式,监管同时有助于废物管理并阻碍其竞争对手。严格的监管为新进入者设置了进入壁垒,最重要的是,增加了剩余废物处理参与者的利润。出于同样的原因,制药公司敦促对维生素和营养补充剂行业进行监管。

The forces at play in an industry are dynamic. The essence of strategy is to understand the current forces and to use them to your advantage. In waste disposal, Waste Management Inc. lobbies hard for enactment of stringent environmental regulations. Why? Because only a few companies are able to comply with them. In that way, regulation simultaneously assists Waste Management and hinders its competitors. Stringent regulation creates barriers to entry for new entrants and, most important, increases the profits of the remaining waste disposal players. Pharmaceutical companies press for the regulation of the vitamin and nutritional-supplement industry for the same reason.

 

 

通用策略

GENERIC STRATEGIES

公司可以通过多种方式分析其竞争挑战。其中一种方法是我们刚刚讨论过的波特概述的五力框架。但大多数行动选择都属于所谓的通用策略。通用策略可用于许多行业,从洗碗巾到计算机。波特在功能和业务战略可能性矩阵中恰当地捕捉了三大战略:

There are many ways for a company to analyze its competitive challenges. One such way is the Five Forces framework outlined by Porter that we have just discussed. But most options for action fall into what are called generic strategies. A generic strategy is one that can be used across many industries, from dish towels to computers. Porter has aptly captured the three major strategies in a matrix of functional and business strategic possibilities:

 

 

成本优势

Cost Leadership

差异化

Differentiation

重点

Focus

三种通用策略

THREE GENERIC STRATEGIES

图片

经 Macmillian, Inc. 旗下的 The Free Press 许可转载,来自Michael E. Porter的《竞争战略:分析行业和竞争对手的技术》 。版权所有 © 1980,自由出版社。

Reprinted with the permission of The Free Press, a division of Macmillian, Inc., from Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors by Michael E. Porter. Copyright © 1980 by The Free Press.

 

 

成本领先和学习曲线

COST LEADERSHIP AND THE LEARNING CURVE

最简单的策略是成本领先。通过实现行业中最低的生产成本,公司可以降低价格或保留增加的利润以投资于研究以开发新的更好的产品。低成本生产商(LCP) 也可以选择使用他们的利润来更有力地宣传和营销他们的产品。

The simplest strategy is cost leadership. By achieving the lowest cost of production in an industry, a company can either reduce its prices or keep the increased profits to invest in research to develop new and better products. Low-cost producers (LCPs) can also choose to use their profits to advertise and market their products more vigorously.

与成本领先相关的运营概念是规模经济。这意味着随着产量的增加,单位成本下降。随着工厂产量的增加,他们会通过多种方式学习并提高效率。

An operations concept related to cost leadership is economies of scale. This means that as one produces more, costs per unit fall. As factories produce more, they learn and become more efficient in several ways.

这些“学习”效率可以来自六个来源:

These “learning” efficiencies can come from six sources:

 

 

劳动效率——通过重复或自动化学习。通过使用机器人和计算机辅助制造 (CAM),工厂自动化取得了巨大进步。

Labor Efficiency—Learning through repetition or automation. Tremendous progress has been made in factory automation by using robots and computer-aided manufacturing (CAM).

新流程和改进方法——完成相同任务的成本更低的方法

New Processes and Improved Methods—Less costly ways to do the same task

产品重新设计——重新设计以降低材料和劳动力成本。如果使用计算机来设计产品,则称为计算机辅助设计 (CAD)。

Product Redesign—Redesign to lower costs of materials and labor. If a computer is used to design the product, it is called computer-aided design (CAD).

产品标准化——减少产品组件的变化

Product Standardization—Decreasing the variations of a product’s components

规模效率——工厂产能翻倍并不需要成本翻倍。添加机器或额外空间并不像从头开始那么昂贵。

Efficiencies of Scale—Doubling factory capacity does not cost twice as much. Adding machines or additional space is not as expensive as starting from scratch.

替代——使用更便宜但足够的材料

Substitution—Using less expensive but adequate materials

 

 

为了有用,学习概念必须是可量化的。学习曲线,有时也称为经验曲线,就是这样做的。它由波士顿咨询集团 (BCG) 在 1960 年代开发,用于将数字附加到据信存在的规模经济效益上。他们发现,每当“累计”产量翻一番时,制造成本就会下降一个恒定且可预测的百分比。

To be useful, the learning concept must be quantifiable. The learning curve, sometimes called the experience curve, does just that. It was developed by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) in the 1960s to attach numbers to economies-of-scale benefits believed to exist. They found that each time the “cumulative” volume of production doubled, the cost of manufacturing fell by a constant and predictable percentage.

例如,顾问对制造任务的调查可以确定“80% 的学习曲线”。这意味着累积产量每翻一番,生产的下一个单位的成本将是第一个单位的 80%,或减少 20%。存在用于执行数学的计算机电子表格模型。要记住的重要一点是,“累计生产”从第一个单元开始,不是当月或当年生产的第一台,而是使用该制造方法下线的第一台。

For example, a consultant’s investigation of a manufacturing task could identify an “80 percent learning curve.” This means that for every doubling of accumulated production, the next unit produced would cost 80 percent of the first unit, or 20 percent less. Computer spreadsheet models exist to perform the mathematics. The important point to remember is that “accumulated production” starts with unit one, not the first produced that month or year, but the very first one off the assembly line using that manufacturing method.

为了证明所涉及的数学,我假设了 80% 的学习曲线对为吉列生产一次性剃须刀的成本有何影响。

To demonstrate the math involved, I have hypothesized what the effects of an 80 percent learning curve would have been on the cost of producing disposable razors for Gillette.

剃须刀刀片生产成本的学习曲线效应

THE LEARNING CURVE EFFECT COST OF PRODUCTION OF RAZOR BLADES

图片

数学表明,在剃须刀产量翻了 21 倍之后,每单位成本每次都会下降 20%,从 10.00 美元减少到 0.09 美元。一个简单的学习曲线也可以图形化地看到,如图所示:

The math demonstrates that after the razor production doubles twenty-one times, the cost per unit decreases 20 percent each time from a cost of $10.00 to $.09. A simple learning curve can also be seen graphically as shown:

剃须刀片学习曲线

RAZOR BLADE LEARNING CURVE

图片

学习曲线的战略意义在于在竞争对手之前降低学习曲线。一家希望保持成本领先地位的公司将努力生产比竞争对手更多的产品。这样它的生产成本就会下降得更快。

The strategic implications of the learning curve lie in moving down the learning curve before competitors do. A firm wishing to maintain cost leadership will strive to produce more units than its competition. That way its production costs will be decreased more quickly.

低于成本“倾销”产品的概念是日本在追求成本领先战略时在电子行业使用的一种策略。这些具有前瞻性思维的公司以低价出售录像机,期望通过以较低的成本增加产量来实现利润。日本制造商使用五年而不是一年的时间范围来计算他们的利润。因此,他们计划在第一年亏损,以便在第三年和第四年实现更大的利润。美国的竞争对手认为该行业没有吸引力,并受到不合理定价的困扰,而具有战略头脑的日本公司则与市场擦肩而过。随着旧产品的成熟,日本人利用销售这些产品的利润来开发 DVD 等新产品。

The concept of “dumping” products below cost is a tactic the Japanese have used in the electronics industry while pursuing a cost leadership strategy. These forward-thinking companies sold video recorders at low prices, expecting to realize profits as they increased production at a lower cost. Japanese manufacturers calculated their profits using a five-year rather than a one-year time horizon. Therefore, they planned losses for their first year, so that larger profits could be realized in years three and four. American competitors saw the industry as unattractive and plagued by irrational pricing, while the strategic-minded Japanese companies walked away with the market. As the older products matured, the Japanese used the profits from their sale to develop new products like DVDs.

随着产品在其产品生命周期中的成熟并被广泛采用,如营销章节中所述,该曲线变得不那么有用了。要使累积产量翻一番,就需要大幅增加产量,而这根本不现实。利润也可能很低。在这种情况下,剩下的竞争者只要不放弃,就有机会赶上来。

As a product matures in its product life cycle and becomes widely adopted, as described in the marketing chapter, the curve becomes less useful. To double accumulated production would require tremendous increases in volume that are simply not realistic. Profits are also likely to be low. In this situation, the remaining competitors have the chance to catch up, if they haven’t given up.

学习曲线不是静态的。新工艺或新材料可能会提高工人的生产率,从而改变曲线。在剃须刀实例中,由于新的组装机,一条新曲线可能在工作,比如说,“75% 的学习”,而不是如图所示的 80%。这称为跳到新曲线。在这种情况下,生产的累计单位总数设置为零,新曲线生效。当产量翻倍时,生产的下一个单位的成本将是使用新工艺的第一个单位的 75%,或减少 25%。对于不断创新的产品,学习曲线没什么用处。新曲线一直在形成,没有太多时间“向下移动”它们中的任何一条。

Learning curves are not static. A new process or material may increase worker productivity and thus alter the curve. In the razor instance, a new curve may be at work at, say, “75 percent learning” because of a new assembling machine, instead of 80 percent as shown. That is called jumping to a new curve. In this situation, the running total of accumulated units produced is set to zero, and the new curve takes effect. When production doubles, the next unit produced will cost 75 percent of the first one using the new process, or 25 percent less. With products that are continuously innovated, the learning curve is of little use. New curves are formed all the time, and there is not much time to “move down” any of them.

 

 

差异化

DIFFERENTIATION

如前所述,差异化是主要的营销目标。它涉及使您的产品或服务在消费者心目中显得与众不同。对于产品,这意味着提供更好的设计、可靠性、服务和交付。对于服务,差异点可以是员工礼貌、可用性、专业知识和位置。产品和服务可以通过广告来区分,即使它们实际上是相同的。媒体宣传可以使消费者相信一个更好。例如,消费者可能会因为名人代言而被说服耐克鞋比匡威鞋更好。

As discussed earlier, differentiation is a prime marketing objective. It involves making your product or service appear different in the mind of the consumer. With products, this means offering better design, reliability, service, and delivery. With services, a point of differentiation can be employee courtesy, availability, expertise, and location. Products and services can be differentiated via advertising, even if they are virtually the same. A media campaign can convince the consumer that one is better. For instance, consumers could be persuaded that Nike shoes are better than Converse because of a celebrity endorsement.

 

 

重点

FOCUS

使用专注战略,公司专注于市场领域、细分市场或产品。集中战略的优势来自于对客户和产品类别的深入了解。公司在市场上建立“特许经营权”。在由 Anheuser-Busch、Coors 和 Miller 等巨头主导的啤酒市场中,Hudepohl Beer(“Hudy”)在俄亥俄州拥有自己的一席之地。巨头们可以吹嘘较低的成本和巧妙的营销,但他们并不喜欢当地的“狂热”追随者。多年来,Hudy 通过本地曝光和社区参与获得了忠实的追随者。Hudy专注于俄亥俄州。

Using a focus strategy, a company concentrates on either a market area, a market segment, or a product. The strength of a focus strategy is derived from knowing the customer and the product category well. Companies establish a “franchise” in the marketplace. In the beer market, dominated by titans such as Anheuser-Busch, Coors, and Miller, little Hudepohl Beer (“Hudy”) holds its own in Ohio. The giants can boast lower costs and slick marketing, but they do not enjoy the local “cult” following. Hudy pursued a loyal following over the years through local exposure and community involvement. Hudy focuses on Ohio.

 

 

蓝海战略

BLUE OCEAN STRATEGY

在 2005 年出版的《蓝海战略》一书中,作者推广了这样一种观点,即当组织在被称为“蓝海”的无竞争市场空间中创造新需求时,就会出现高增长和高利润。目标是避免在定义明确的行业中与现有产品和客户直接竞争。结合成本领先和差异化战略,公司可以创造新的产业。据说任天堂采用“蓝海”战略开发了任天堂DS便携式游戏机和跟踪用户身体动作的Wii游戏机。

In the 2005 book Blue Ocean Strategy, the authors popularized the idea that high growth and profits come when an organization creates new demand in an uncontested market space called a “blue ocean.” The goal is to avoid direct competition over existing products and customers in a well-defined industry. Combining the strategies of cost leadership and differentiation, companies can create new industries. Nintendo is said to have used “blue ocean” strategies to develop the Nintendo DS portable game device and the Wii game player that tracks users’ body movements.

 

 

竞争策略:信号

COMPETITIVE TACTICS: SIGNALING

信号是一个关键的战略工具。它涉及让您的竞争对手知道您的想法。战斗员发出他们计划做什么或他们将采取什么步骤来回应竞争对手的行动的信号。当然,一家公司也可以虚张声势。信号被用来防止灾难性的(和代价高昂的)价格战。直接与竞争对手联系以设定价格或分配市场是非法的!反托拉斯法禁止这种行为。但是,通过明智地发出信号,公司可以在不坐牢的情况下实现预期的结果。

Signaling is a key strategic tool. It involves letting your competitors know what’s on your mind. Combatants signal what they plan to do or what steps they will take in response to a competitor’s move. Of course, a company can also bluff. Signaling is used to prevent disastrous (and costly) price wars. Direct contact with the competition to set prices or allocate markets is illegal! Antitrust laws forbid this behavior. But by judiciously signaling, companies can achieve the desired outcome without time behind bars.

在航空业,信号是司空见惯的。在全国各地的预订屏幕上,每天都在进行猫捉老鼠的游戏。例如,达美航空可能会短暂大幅降低其从亚特兰大到洛杉矶的重要航线的票价,以响应美国联合航空公司在同一航线上的降价。达美航空的价格变动表明,“美联航,如果你想在这条航线上玩游戏,那就太血腥了。” 如果美联航以提高价格作为回应,实际上他们是在发出信号,“让我们休战吧。” 如果美联航保持低票价,就表明它打算开战。这就像扑克。

In the airline industry, signaling is commonplace. On reservation screens across the country, a daily cat-and-mouse game goes on. For example, Delta may briefly lower fares significantly on its prized routes from Atlanta to Los Angeles in response to United Airlines’ price cuts along the same route. The Delta price move says, “United, if you want to play games on this route, it’ll be bloody.” If United responds by raising prices, in effect they are signaling, “Let’s call a truce.” If United keeps the low fare, it is signaling its intention to do battle. It’s just like poker.

六种常见的合法信号类型是:

Six common types of legal signals are:

 

 

价格变动——表明意图并惩罚不可接受的行为

Price Movements—to signal intentions and to penalize unacceptable behavior

预先公告——威胁、测试竞争对手的决心并避免意外。在零售业中,一家强大的公司将“达到或击败任何竞争对手的价格”的公告发出了公司决心的强烈信号。规模较小、实力较弱的竞争对手可能不应该只在价格上竞争。

Prior Announcements—to threaten, to test competitors’ resolve, and to avoid surprises. In the retailing industry announcements that a strong company will “meet or beat any competitor’s price” sends a strong signal of a company’s resolve. A smaller and weaker competitor should probably not compete only on price.

媒体讨论——传达您采取行动的理由并将您的想法传达给竞争对手。由于禁止竞争公司的高管相互直接交流,他们只能通过媒体间接交流。例如,埃克森美孚的一位高管可能会表达他对毫无结果的价格战的厌倦,并希望“营销信息”成为竞争的基础。这样,ChevronTexaco 和 BP 就会注意到 ExxonMobil 的价格攀升并采取相应行动。

Media Discussions—to communicate your rationale for actions and to convey your thoughts to the competition. Because executives of competing companies are barred from communicating with each other directly, they do it indirectly via the media. An ExxonMobil executive, for example, could express his weariness with fruitless price wars and his hope that “marketing messages” would constitute the basis of competition. In this way, ChevronTexaco and BP would be put on notice to observe ExxonMobil’s price climb and act accordingly.

反击——通过降价或促销来打击竞争对手的本土市场,以报复他们侵占您的地盘。假设纽约是 Maxwell House 咖啡最好的市场,而 Folgers 最好的是加利福尼亚。如果 Maxwell House 的品牌经理以激进的定价和促销手段攻击 Folgers 的地盘,那么他在 Folgers 的对手将会大发雷霆,委婉地说。他有两个选择:一,积极保卫加州;一二,采取攻势,进攻Maxwell House的纽约市场。如果他选择第二个选项,他将表达他的愤怒并暗示休战可能对他们双方都有利。

Counterattack—to hit your competitor’s home market with a price cut or promotion in retaliation for their encroachment on your turf. Say New York was Maxwell House coffee’s best market, and Folgers best was California. If the Maxwell House brand manager attacked Folgers turf with aggressive pricing and promotion, his counterpart at Folgers would be up in arms, to put it mildly. He would have two options: one, to defend California aggressively; or two, to take the offensive and attack Maxwell House’s New York market. If he chose the second option, he would be signaling his anger and suggesting that a truce might benefit them both.

公布结果——向竞争对手清楚地传达行动的结果,以避免代价高昂的误解。在测试市场情况下,制造商可以明确宣布失败,以期阻止竞争对手反击其他已建立的产品。在价格战中,竞争对手可能会宣布降价只是在有限的时间内进行,以避免发出长期保持低价意图的信号。

Announce Results—to communicate clearly to the competition the results of an action to avoid a costly misunderstanding. In test-market situations a manufacturer could clearly announce a failure in hopes of dissuading a competitor from counterattacking other established products. In pricing battles, a competitor could announce that the price cut is for only a limited time, in an effort to avoid signaling a long-term intention to keep prices low.

诉讼——在法庭上捆绑竞争对手。当柯达进入即时摄影业务时,宝丽来通过法庭明确表示,它认为柯达的相机和胶卷侵犯了专利权。宝丽来还公开宣布,将动用所有可用资源追索索赔。最终柯达退出了市场,1991 年该公司同意向宝丽来支付 10 亿美元的和解金并放弃即时摄影。

Litigation—to tie up a competitor in court. When Kodak entered the instant-photography business, Polaroid made it clear through the courts that it considered Kodak’s camera and film a patent infringement. Polaroid also publicly announced that it would pursue its claims with all the resources at its disposal. Eventually Kodak withdrew from the market, and in 1991 the company agreed to pay Polaroid a $1 billion settlement and abandon instant photography.

 

 

信号、囚徒困境和博弈论

SIGNALING, THE PRISONER’S DILEMMA, AND GAME THEORY

一个相关的信号概念是囚徒困境,因为它在公司战斗中经常被提及。随着故事的发展,两个人因谋杀被捕并被分开,因此他们无法交流。警方没有足够的证据对任何一个人定罪,但如果他们能够说服任何一个人供认并出庭作证,他们就会对其中一个人提出有力的指控。警方承诺,如果他将州的证据反驳对方,则每个人都会从轻处罚。如果他们都拒绝供述并互相牵连,他们将因缺乏证据而被释放。但每个囚犯都不知道对方会如何行动。一个人可以相信另一个人保持沉默吗?

A related signaling concept is the prisoner’s dilemma, as it is frequently referred to in corporate battles. As the story goes, two people are arrested for a murder and separated so that they cannot communicate. The police do not have enough evidence to convict either man, but if they can convince either man to confess and testify against the other, they will then have a strong case against one of them. The police promise each a lighter sentence if he turns state’s evidence against the other. If they both refuse to confess and implicate each other, they will go free for lack of evidence. But what each prisoner does not know is how the other will act. Can one trust the other to keep quiet?

囚徒困境

THE PRISONER’S DILEMMA

图片

在航空业普遍存在的竞争环境中,这种情况类似于两家维持高价的公司,彼此信任对方也能做到这一点。打破这种无声的约定总是很诱人,因为价格战可能导致其他运营商被淘汰。如果他们决定在这种不稳定的安排下合作,他们都会陷入囚徒困境。

In competitive situations such as prevail in the airline industry, this scenario is similar to two companies that maintain high prices, each trusting the other to do the same. It is always tempting to break this silent pact, because a price war could result in the elimination of the other carrier. If they decide to cooperate in this unstable arrangement, they are both caught in a prisoner’s dilemma.

如果竞争对手的行为“非理性”,所有形式的信号都将注定失败。在这种情况下,任何要求休战的尝试都会被忽视,因为在非理性的竞争思维中,目标是获胜,而不是利润最大化。

All forms of signaling will be doomed if a competitor acts “irrationally.” In that case, any attempt to call a competitive truce would go unheeded because in an irrationally competitive mind, winning, rather than maximizing profits, is the goal.

博弈论是对竞争性互动的正式研究。它分析了在人们试图互相得分的情况下可能的结果,无论是在桥牌、政治、战争还是商业中。为此,您可以尝试预测竞争对手对您下一步行动的反应,然后将该反应纳入您的实际决策中。计算机的计算能力使博弈论成为一种实用的商业工具。1994 年诺贝尔奖因对博弈论的研究而获得。

Game theory is the formal study of competitive interactions. It analyzes possible outcomes in situations where people are trying to score points from each other, whether in bridge, politics, war, or business. You do this by trying to anticipate the reactions of your competitor to your next move and then factoring that reaction into your actual decision. Computers’ powers of calculation have allowed game theory to become a practical business tool. In 1994 a Nobel Prize was awarded for the study of game theory.

同年,博弈论在联邦政府为个人通信服务个人通信服务 120 兆赫兹空中频率的拍卖中被投标人广泛使用时,博弈论获得了更广泛的认可。FCC 建立了如此复杂的投标系统,以至于需要复杂的决策工具。由于有多个投标人和 51 个市场要拍卖,投标人使用应用博弈论程序来分析他们的竞争对手并进行投标。经过 112 轮招标,政府筹集了 77 亿美元。

That same year, game theory gained wider acceptance when it was used extensively by bidders in the federal government’s auction of 120 megahertz of air frequency for PCS, personal communication services. The FCC set up such a complicated bidding system that sophisticated decision-making tools were a necessity. With multiple bidders and fifty-one markets to auction off, bidders used applied-game-theory programs to analyze their competitors and make their bids. After 112 rounds of bidding, the government raised $7.7 billion.

 

 

投资组合策略

PORTFOLIO STRATEGIES

如果信号听起来很有趣,那么 MBA 玩投资组合游戏的乐趣就掩盖了它的乐趣。投资组合战略被认为是公司层面战略规划的高级领域。这是 MBA 和总部设在波士顿和纽约的精英管理咨询公司的统治。在 1960 年代,许多学者和高管认为,如果一家公司能够将不相关和反周期业务的正确组合组合在一起,它就不会受到经济衰退的影响。因此,多元化的概念成为十年的热潮。一个典型的例子是通用电气,这家公司在 60 年代涉及 160 家企业。

If signaling sounds like fun, its enjoyment is eclipsed by the pleasure MBAs take in playing portfolio games. Portfolio strategy is considered the highbrow area of corporate level strategic planning. It is the dominion of MBAs and of the elite management consulting firms headquartered in Boston and New York. In the 1960s, many academics and executives believed that if a corporation could put together the right portfolio of unrelated and countercyclical businesses, it would be immune to economic downturns. Accordingly, the concept of diversification became the craze of the decade. A prime example is General Electric, a company that was involved in 160 businesses during the sixties.

但在 20 世纪 70 年代,当利润下降并且华尔街对不相关的多元化感到不满时,董事会就跑向顾问寻求帮助。他们想知道自己应该从事哪些业务,应该继续从事哪些业务,应该出售哪些业务。现金稀缺,必须找到一种策略,帮助他们将有限的资金用于最佳前景。

But in the 1970s, when profits declined and Wall Street became dissatisfied with unrelated diversification, boards of directors ran to consultants for help. They wanted to know what businesses they should be in, which they should continue in, and which they should sell. Cash was scarce and a strategy had to be found that would help funnel their limited capital to the best prospects.

正如您所料,每家咨询公司都开发了自己的理论和矩阵模型来解决投资组合管理问题。知识渊博的 MBA 都熟悉四种主要的投资组合模型,你也应该如此。

As you might expect, each consulting firm developed its own theory and matrix model to answer the portfolio management problem. Knowledgeable MBAs are familiar with the four major portfolio models, and you should be too.

 

 

波士顿咨询集团的增长/份额矩阵

THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP’S GROWTH/SHARE MATRIX

波士顿咨询集团 (BCG) 的模型使用市场增长率和相对市场份额将公司分为四类。他们的研究表明,由于学习曲线效应,高市场份额与较高的 ROI(投资回报率)和较低的成本高度相关。因此,该理论表明,最好在某些业务中拥有稳定、高的市场份额来为其他业务的现金需求提供资金。有四种分类基于该前提。

The Boston Consulting Group’s (BCG) model uses market growth rates and relative market share to classify companies into four categories. Their studies showed that high market share was highly correlated with higher ROI (return on investment) and lower costs because of learning curve effects. Therefore, the theory suggests that it is best to have a stable, high market share in some businesses to fund the cash needs of other businesses. There are four classifications that rest on that premise.

BCG 业务组合图表

THE BCG BUSINESS PORTFOLIO CHART

图片

The Star是高增长行业中的高市场份额企业。明星成长并为自己融资。互联网搜索引擎谷歌是自筹资金成长型公司的一个很好的例子。其 2010 年销售额为 290 亿美元,利润率为 33%,足以满足新项目和现有项目的现金需求。这些类型的公司的特点是存在于竞争激烈的市场中,需要警惕的管理层才能保持其在 BCG 矩阵中令人羡慕的地位。

The Star is a high-market-share business in a high-growth industry. Stars grow and finance themselves. Google, the Internet search engine, is a good example of a self-financing growth company. Its profit margin of 33 percent on sales of $29 billion in 2010 was ample to meet its cash needs for new and existing projects. Characteristically, these types of companies exist in competitive markets and require vigilant managements to maintain their enviable positions on the BCG matrix.

摇钱树是低增长行业中的高市场份额企业。这些宝石提供现金来资助其他业务。昨天的明星,烟草公司,都是今天的奶牛。在奥驰亚的案例中,万宝路产生的资金被用于收购食品公司和支付股息。不用说,奥驰亚的目标是保持其在美国低增长烟草行业的主导地位,并尽可能继续“挤奶”。

Cash cows are high-market-share businesses in low-growth industries. These gems provide the cash to fund other businesses. Yesterday’s stars, tobacco companies, are today’s cows. In Altria’s case, the money generated from Marlboro was used to buy food companies and pay dividends. Needless to say, Altria’s goal is to keep its dominant share in the low-growth tobacco industry in the United States and keep “milking the cow” if it can.

是低增长行业的小市场份额企业。这些企业无处可去,消耗公司现金和管理层的时间以保持竞争力。在钢铁行业,很多公司都是狗。他们的厂房和设备需要昂贵的现代化改造,但随着需求疲软和外国竞争加剧,他们不需要母公司进行额外投资。结果,同意这一评估的董事会让他们的钢铁厂生锈了。

Dogs are small-market-share businesses in low-growth industries. These businesses are going nowhere and consume corporate cash and management’s time in an attempt to stay competitive. In the steel industry many companies are dogs. Their plants and equipment need expensive modernization, but with softer demand and increased foreign competition, they do not warrant additional investment by their parent companies. As a consequence, boards of directors that agree with this assessment have let their steel plants rust.

问号是高增长行业中市场份额小的企业。为了成长,他们需要现金。一些战略家称他们为“问题儿童”。如果他们成功了,他们将成为明星,然后成为摇钱树。如果他们失败了,他们要么死去,要么随着行业的成熟而变成狗。初创生物技术和纳米技术公司,如人类基因组科学和纳米相技术,分别属于问号类别。必须资助昂贵的研究才能生产出神奇的药物。

Question marks are small-market-share businesses in high-growth industries. To grow they need cash. Some strategists call them “problem children.” If they become successful, they will become stars, and later, cash cows. If they fail, they either die or become dogs as their industries mature. Start-up biotechnology and nanotechnology firms such as Human Genome Sciences and Nanophase Technologies, respectively, fall into the question mark category. Expensive research has to be funded in the hope of producing a miracle drug.

所有这些关于动物的谈话都很有趣,直到顾问给狗贴上标签是的事。狗不一定是坏生意。他们只是不是大公司想要在其投资组合中的业务类型。华尔街投资者要求狗无法提供一定程度的销售增长和现金产生。由于狗的管理和买断艺术家将这些公司从大公司手中夺走,许多百万富翁已经诞生。我的收购课程是由许多来访的“教授”教授的,他们从清理大公司的麻烦生物中获益良多。

All this animal talk is fun until it is your business that the consultants label a dog. Dogs are not necessarily bad businesses. They just aren’t the type of businesses that large corporations want in their portfolio. Wall Street investors demand a level of sales growth and cash generation that dogs cannot provide. Many millionaires have been minted as the dogs’ management and buyout artists have taken these companies off larger corporations’ hands. My acquisitions course was taught by a number of visiting “professors” who had profited nicely from the housecleaning of large corporations’ troublesome critters.

投资组合策略有其缺点。他们假设投资组合中的企业没有显着联系,但事实往往并非如此。许多企业集合共享技术、营销和支持功能。在使用投资组合概念时,使用共享资源很困难,因为它们要求公司不断采取杂耍行为,以最大限度地提高增长和现金。从历史上看,除了少数例外,只有投资银行家和咨询顾问从交易 BCG动物的杂耍交易中获利。公司变戏法的其他受益者是这些投资组合公司的管理层。如果一个企业没有成功,就没有必要修复它。直接卖给他们!

Portfolio strategies have their drawbacks. They assume that businesses in a portfolio have no significant linkages, which is often not the case. Many collections of businesses share technical, marketing, and support functions. Using shared resources is difficult when using portfolio concepts because they dictate a continual juggling act of companies to maximize growth and cash. Historically, with few exceptions, only investment bankers and advising consultants have profited from the juggling transactions of trading the BCG animals. The other beneficiaries of company juggling are the managements of these portfolio companies. If a business is not working out, there is no need to fix it. Just sell it to them!

 

 

麦肯锡公司的多因素分析

MCKINSEY & COMPANY’S MULTIFACTOR ANALYSIS

麦肯锡公司采用不同的方法来处理投资组合。为了回应 1970 年通用电气对 BCG 的双变量模型的不满,麦肯锡开发了​​自己的模型。两种模型的指导方针相同:出售、持有或投资投资组合中的业务。用麦肯锡的术语来说,你收获了一棵摇钱树,卖掉一条狗。

McKinsey & Co. takes a different approach to portfolio juggling. In response to dissatisfaction at General Electric in 1970 with the BCG’s two-variable model, McKinsey developed its own. The guidance is the same from both models: sell, hold, or invest in a business in the portfolio. In McKinsey’s vocabulary, you harvest a cash cow and divest a dog.

该模型有两个管理商业评估的一般变量:行业吸引力商业实力。麦肯锡的模型并不简单。每个变量都由许多行业因素决定。在任何给定的行业中,某些因素将比其他因素更为重要。

The model has two general variables that govern a business evaluation: industry attractiveness and business strength. McKinsey’s model is not simple. Each variable is determined by a number of industry factors. In any given industry, some factors will be of greater importance than others.

麦肯锡模型有九个象限,而 BCG 有四个。该模型规定的六个通用行动方案是:

The McKinsey model has nine quadrants versus BCG’s four. The six generic courses of action dictated by the model are:

 

 

  • 投资并持有
  • Invest and Hold
  • 投资成长
  • Invest to Grow
  • 投资重建
  • Invest to Rebuild
  • 有选择地投资于有前景的业务领域
  • Selectively Invest in Promising Areas of the Business
  • 收获,挤牛奶
  • Harvest, Milk the Cow
  • 撤资,卖狗
  • Divest, Sell the Dog

虽然麦肯锡的模型很有吸引力,因为它考虑了很多因素,但评价是主观的。如矩阵所示,各个因素最终形成“高”、“中”或“低”评估。例如,沃尔玛的销售增长可以从其公布的年报中看到,但如何客观地量化沃尔玛的“形象”呢?它是麦肯锡用来评估企业在其矩阵中的位置的一个组成部分。这都是主观的。

Although the McKinsey model is attractive because it takes into account many factors, nonetheless the evaluation is subjective. As shown by the matrix, the individual factors culminate in a “high,” “medium,” or “low” assessment. For example, Wal-Mart’s sales growth is accessible through its published annual report, but how can one objectively quantify Wal-Mart’s “image”? It is a component that McKinsey uses in evaluating a business’s position in its matrix. It’s all subjective.

麦肯锡公司地位/行业吸引力筛选

THE MCKINSEY COMPANY POSITION / INDUSTRY ATTRACTIVENESS SCREEN

图片

ATHUR D. LITTLE 的 SBU 系统

ARTHUR D. LITTLE’S SBU SYSTEM

Arthur D. Little (ADL) 是 MBA 投资组合专家的另一个堡垒。ADL 已经制定了一个围绕战略业务部门 SBU 的系统。当一家公司的类似业务被分组为 SBU 时,投资组合策略变得不那么复杂,因为需要担心的单位更少。除了母公司强加给它们的财务关系外,不同 SBU 中的企业之间几乎没有关联。

Arthur D. Little (ADL) is another bastion of MBA portfolio experts. ADL has cooked up a system that revolves around the SBU, the strategic business unit. When similar businesses of a corporation are grouped into SBUs, portfolio strategies become less complicated because there are fewer units to worry about. Businesses in different SBUs have little association with one another other than the financial ties imposed on them by the parent corporation.

ADL 投资组合流程有四个步骤:

The ADL portfolio process has four steps:

 

 

1. 将公司的所有业务分类为 SBU。

1. Classify all the businesses of a corporation into SBUs.

2. 将 SBU 放入矩阵中。

2. Place the SBUs into a matrix.

3. 评估每个 SBU 所在行业的状况。

3. Evaluate the conditions of the industries in which each SBU operates.

4. 决定。

4. Decide.

与麦肯锡的九个象限相比,ADL 的矩阵有二十四个象限。在 ADL 模型中起作用的两个变量是行业成熟度水平竞争地位。不用说,这些与麦肯锡和 BCG 的相似。然而,ADL 词汇的灵感来自交通信号而不是动物世界。具有高市场份额或具有吸引力的市场的 SBU 被归类为绿色。夹在中间的是黄色的。市场份额低或成熟市场前景不佳的品牌被打上红色烙印,如下图。

ADL’s matrix has twenty-four quadrants compared to McKinsey’s nine. The two variables that are operative in ADL’s model are industry maturity level and competitive position. Needless to say, these are similar to McKinsey’s and BCG’s. However, ADL vocabulary derives its inspiration from traffic signals rather than the animal world. SBUs either with high market share or in an attractive market are classified as green. Those caught in the middle are yellow. And the poor prospects with low market shares or in mature markets are branded red, as shown below.

ADL 战略业务单元模型

THE ADL STRATEGIC BUSINESS UNIT MODEL

图片

根据他们的红绿灯分类,顾问为每个拥有的 SBU 设计适当的策略:构建、维护清算。对于绿色 SBU,有许多不同的策略可用。对于红色的人来说,可用的选择受到他们所处的恶劣“条件”的限制。一旦 SBU 被分类,顾问就会转向他们的通用战略调色板,例如专注、渗透多元化,以构建适当的战术计划。

Based on their traffic light classification, the consultants devise appropriate strategies for each SBU owned: build, maintain, or liquidate. For green SBUs there are many different strategies available. For the red ones, the options available are constrained by the poor “conditions” in which they find themselves. Once the SBU is classified, the consultants turn to their palette of generic strategies such as focus, penetration, or diversification to construct appropriate tactical plans.

 

 

其他需要了解的战略咨询趋势

OTHER STRATEGIC CONSULTING FADS TO KNOW ABOUT

在任何战略营销分析中,正如营销章节中提到的,您应该在评估竞争对手的背景下评估您自己公司的核心竞争力。从 1990 年开始,咨询公司将调查贵公司擅长的方面作为一项完整的任务。例如,在 Frito-Lay,分销系统是关键。

In any strategic marketing analysis, as mentioned in the marketing chapter, you should evaluate your own company’s core competencies in the context of evaluating your competition. Beginning in 1990, consulting firms made an entire assignment out of investigating what your company does well. For example, at Frito-Lay, the distribution system is key.

1990 年另一个流行的任务是关注客户保留。贝恩公司,该理论的主要倡导者,从中创造了一个完整的实践。此类任务的目标是弄清楚如何创造忠诚的客户并留住他们。为实现这一目标,公司和顾问进行广泛的消费者研究以了解客户的购买习惯和满意度。顾问检查客户群以发现最好的客户,以便将他们挑出来进行特殊对待。通常,产生最多销售额的“最佳”客户与产生最多利润的客户并不相同。此外,还设置了收集和存储客户数据的系统,以便营销人员可以轻松有效地联系客户。留住好客户比不断流失新客户更有效。

Another popular assignment in 1990 was to focus on customer retention. Bain & Co., the theory’s leading exponent, created an entire practice out of it. The goal of such an assignment is to figure out how to create loyal customers and retain them. To accomplish that, companies and consultants perform extensive consumer research to understand customer buying habits and satisfaction. Consultants examine the customer base to discover who the best customers are so that they can be singled out for special treatment. Often the “best” customers generating the most sales are not the same as those generating the most profits. In addition, systems are set up to gather and store customer data so that marketers can easily and effectively contact the customer. It is more effective to retain good customers than to constantly churn new ones.

1993 年,James Champy 和 Michael Hammer 合着的《企业再造》一书掀起了一股新的咨询热潮。他们的“再造”咨询公司 CSC-Index 根据他们的书的成功起草了草稿,并就如何重新思考您的公司可能做的每一件事提供了专家建议。正如1995 年 4 月波士顿环球报报道的那样,“管理者应该放弃层级结构,支持员工团队,开发跨越销售和营销等传统领域的系统,并使用计算机技术来消除大量的纸张推送和推纸人。”

In 1993, James Champy and Michael Hammer’s book Reengineering the Corporation set a new consulting fad in motion. Their “reengineering” consultancy CSC-Index drafted on their book’s success and provided expert advice on how to rethink everything your corporation may do. As reported in the Boston Globe in April 1995, “Managers should abandon hierarchal structures in favor of employee teams, to develop systems that cut across traditional fiefdoms such as sales and marketing, and to use computer technology to eliminate a lot of paper-pushing and paper-pushers.”

Stern Stewart & Co. 在财务领域进行了创新,创建了一种重述公司收入的方法,以便管理层可以集中精力改善其股票表现。经济增加值(EVA) 或市场增加值(MVA) 是一个新的战略咨询概念,在 1993 年变得很重要。EVA 是公司税后净营业收入与其资本成本之间的差值。多年来,会计师一直称该指标为“剩余收入”,但斯特恩·斯图尔特 (Stern Stewart) 对其进行了修改并创造了 EVA 一词。

Stern Stewart & Co. innovated in the financial area by creating a method of restating a company’s income so that management could concentrate on improving its stock performance. Economic value added (EVA) or market value added (MVA) was a new strategic consulting concept that gained importance in 1993. EVA is the difference between a company’s net operating income after taxes and its cost of capital. Accountants have called the measure “residual income” for years, but Stern Stewart modified it and coined the EVA term.

 

 

EVA = ANOPAT 资本成本 % ×(调整后的总资产流动负债)

EVA = ANOPAT Cost of Capital % × (Adjusted Total Assets Current Liabilities)

ANOPAT 指调整后的税后净营业利润

ANOPAT means the Adjusted Net Operating Profit After Taxes

 

 

这个想法是,公司的财务业绩应该通过扣除股东提供的资金成本后产生的回报来判断。财务报表中使用的“净收入”的 GAAP 会计衡量标准并没有做到这一点。在咨询任务期间,客户公司将学习新的方法,其管理层将被引导制定侧重于可能提高其股价的因素的战略。

The idea is that a company’s financial performance should be judged by the return generated after deducting the cost of capital provided by shareholders. The GAAP accounting measure of “net income” used on financial statements does not do that. During a consulting assignment the client company would learn the new methodology, and its management would be guided toward strategies focusing on the factors that could possibly boost its stock price.

 

 

全球化与战略

GLOBALIZATION AND STRATEGY

世界在经济上变得越来越相互依存。因此,全球范围内的战略规划已成为一个及时的关注点。MBA 的流行语是全球化。这是一个相当模糊的术语,但它是一个“热门”话题,并且努力将全球这个词插入所有 MBA 课程和著作中。

The world is becoming increasingly economically interdependent. Thus strategic planning on a global scale has become a timely concern. The MBA buzzword is globalization. It is a rather nebulous term, but it is a “hot” topic and efforts are made to interject the word global into all MBA courses and writings.

全球化的可能性取决于企业经营所在行业的分类。如果一个行业本质上是全国性的,它就可以成功运作,而不会受到大型跨国公司(MNC) 的威胁,无论是试图进行敌意收购还是在某种意义上进行竞争。烘焙和卡车运输是民族工业的两个例子。另一方面,汽车和计算机是全球产业的例子。大量研究支出的必要性和显着的学习曲线效应往往有利于大型跨国公司。无论是哪个行业,都有促进或阻碍全球化的力量在起作用。

The possibility of globalization depends on the classification of the industry in which a business operates. If an industry is national in nature, it can successfully operate without being threatened by large multinational corporations (MNCs) swooping in and either trying a hostile takeover or competing in some sense. Baking and trucking are two examples of national industries. Automobiles and computers, on the other hand, are examples of global industries. The necessity of heavy research spending and significant learning curve effects tend to favor large MNCs. Whatever the industry, forces are at work that either facilitate or impede globalization.

推动全球化的力量:

Forces encouraging globalization:

 

 

改进的通信和运输——传真、电缆、卫星、超音速

Improved Communications and Transportation—Fax, cable, satellite, supersonics

更少的贸易限制——更低的关税、关税、统一的法规

Fewer Trade Restrictions—Lower tariffs, duties, uniform regulations

消费者需求的趋同——世界各地的人们开始拥有相同的品味。

Convergence of Consumer Needs—People everywhere are beginning to have the same tastes.

技术复杂性和变化——新兴的高科技产业需要更大的投资和全球范围内的努力来跟上快速变化的步伐。

Technological Complexity and Change—Emerging high-tech industries require larger investments and worldwide efforts to keep pace with rapid change.

跨国公司竞争——跨国公司争夺其特定行业的世界统治地位。

MNC Rivalries—MNCs fight for world domination of their particular industries.

 

 

阻碍全球化的力量:

Forces hindering globalization:

 

 

协调成本——更多的管理者,沟通成本

Cost of Coordination—More managers, communication costs

地理限制——在更广阔的区域开展业务的运输限制和后勤障碍

Geographic Restraints—Transportation constraints and logistical barriers of operating over wider areas

国家差异——口味偏好、用法、媒体、语言、分销渠道差异

National Differences—Taste preferences, usage, media, language, distribution channel differences

保护主义——关税、政府补贴、监管批准

Protectionism—Tariffs, government subsidies, regulatory approvals

 

 

关于一个行业属于哪个分类(全球分类还是国家分类)的争论,不如调查做或不做分类的力量重要。如果一家公司发现自己身处新兴的全球行业,就必须采取行动,否则就会被其他公司超越。由于分类的范围从国家到全球,可用的行动方案也在该范围内。受到威胁的汽车制造商可以游说政府对外国人关闭其市场,以使该行业成为全国性的。另一方面,在同样的情况下,汽车制造商可能会选择采取激进的扩张战略,就像中国制造商所做的那样。

The debate over which classification, global or national, an industry belongs to is not as important as investigating the forces that do or don’t make it so. If a company finds itself in an emerging global industry, it must take action or it will be overtaken by others. Because the classification lies on a spectrum that ranges from national to global, the courses of action available are also in that range. A threatened automaker could lobby the government to close its market to foreigners to make an industry national. On the other hand, in the same situation the automaker may choose to pursue an aggressive expansion strategy, as Chinese manufacturers have done.

谈到全球化,MBA 们通常会提到托马斯·弗里德曼 (Thomas Friedman) 的 世界是平的》 (2005)。由于技术进步,他认为世界在商业方面是一个公平的竞争环境。弗里德曼概述了他所谓的“融合”以创建一个集成的、竞争激烈的全球市场的“扁平化”。

When speaking of globalization, MBAs often refer to Thomas Friedman’s The World Is Flat (2005). He viewed the world as a level playing field in terms of commerce because of technological advances. Friedman outlines what he calls “flatteners” that “converged” to create an integrated, hypercompetitive, global marketplace.

 

 

协同与战略

SYNERGY AND STRATEGY

协同效应是合并两个或多个业务所产生的收益,使得合并后的绩效高于单个业务的总和。当您进行投资组合收购和资产剥离时,协同效应成为一个关键问题。当合并业务的协同效应没有明确定义和量化时,往往会犯错误。可能存在共享生产、分销和市场的可能性,但在将它们纳入收购或合并目标的价格之前,必须仔细审查这些联系相互关系。在合并中,必须对目标公司进行估值,以便将适当数量的母公司股票换成目标公司的股票。

Synergy is the benefit derived from combining two or more businesses so that the performance of the combination is higher than the sum of the individual businesses. When you are making portfolio acquisitions and divestitures, synergy becomes a key issue. Mistakes are often made when the synergistic effects of combining businesses are not explicitly defined and quantified. There may be possibilities for shared production, distribution, and markets, but these linkages or interrelationships must be scrutinized before including them in the price of an acquisition or merger target. In a merger, the target company has to be valued so that the appropriate number of shares of the parent’s stock is exchanged for the target’s.

四种类型的业务联系是:

The four types of business linkages are:

 

 

市场联系

Market Linkages

客户群——相同的买家

Customer Bases—same buyers

分销渠道——通往消费者的相同路径

Distribution Channels—same path to the consumer

品牌标识——将品牌名称和资产转移到其他产品

Brand Identifications—transference of a brand’s name and equity to other products

技术联系

Technological Linkages

运营技术——工厂流程

Operations Technologies—factory processes

新产品技术——研究

New Product Technologies—research

信息技术——数据收集、数据库

Information Technologies—data collection, databases

产品联动

Product Linkages

产品线扩展的可能性

Product Line Extension Possibilities

过剩产能——用于其他产品

Excess Production Capacity—to be used for other products

物资采购——供应商采购力增强

Materials Procurement—buyer power with suppliers enhanced

员工职能——相同的会计师和人事员工可以提供跨产品类别的服务。

Staff Functions—The same accountants and personnel staff can provide services across product categories.

无形联系

Intangible Linkages

共享管理知识:与同一类型买家的经验

Shared Managerial Know-How: Experience with same type of buyer

价值链的相似配置

Similar configuration of the value chain

使用了类似的通用策略

Similar generic strategies used

 

 

1994 年 11 月,Quaker Oats 认为其佳得乐运动饮料拥有完美的搭配:Snapple 果汁和冰茶。此次收购耗资 17 亿美元。桂格已经凭借佳得乐品牌成为非碳酸饮料的领导者,一跃成为仅次于可口可乐和百事可乐的第三大饮料公司。奎克的分析师认为,其强大的分销系统、共享制造和规模经济可以将这种新时代饮料的销售和盈利能力推向新的高度。它有很多联系。然而,可口可乐和百事可乐都以低价的立顿和雀巢茶饮料大举进入市场。可口可乐的 Fruitopia 品牌也在高端市场对 Snapple 发起了进攻。最终,到 1997 年,New Age 变成了“老帽子”,Snapple 的销售额暴跌。亏损 14 亿美元,桂格以 3 亿美元的价格将公司卖给了 RC 可乐和 Mistic 果汁的制造商 Triarc Companies。尽管存在联系,但产品本身的时尚特性压倒了交易可能存在的任何协同效应。另一方面,Triarc 通过回归建立该品牌的战略找到了价值,并于 2000 年以 15 亿美元的价格将 Snapple 出售给汽水制造商 Cadbury Schweppes。

In November 1994, Quaker Oats thought it had the perfect match for its Gatorade sports drink: Snapple fruit juices and iced teas. The acquisition cost $1.7 billion. Already a leader in noncarbonated beverages with the Gatorade brand, Quaker vaulted to the position of being the third-largest beverage company behind Coke and Pepsi. Quaker’s analysts thought that its powerful distribution system, shared manufacturing, and economies of scale could vault this New Age beverage to new heights of sales and profitability. It had many linkages going for it. However, Coke and Pepsi both aggressively entered the market with lower-priced Lipton and Nestea tea drinks. Coke’s Fruitopia brand attacked Snapple at the high end as well. In the end, New Age became “old hat” by 1997 and Snapple’s sales collapsed. Taking a $1.4 billion loss, Quaker sold the company for $300 million to Triarc Companies, the maker of RC Cola and Mistic fruit juices. Despite the linkages, the trendy nature of the product itself overwhelmed any synergies that may have existed for the transaction. Triarc, on the other hand, found value by returning to the strategies that had built the brand and in 2000 sold Snapple for $1.5 billion to soda maker Cadbury Schweppes.

即使确实存在协同作用,使两个组织协同工作也常常需要大量成本。较长的审批过程可能会阻碍决策的制定。组织灵活性的增加可能是更大组织的副产品。在瞬息万变的市场中,这种缺乏灵活性可能成为一种战略劣势。

Even when synergy does exist, there are often significant costs associated with making two organizations work together. Decision making may be hampered by lengthier processes of approval. Increased organizational inflexibility may be the by-product of a larger organization. In rapidly changing markets, this inflexibility could be a strategic disadvantage.

 

 

战略怀疑主义

STRATEGIC SKEPTICISM

前面的讨论可能给人一种印象,即公司的成功是专家战略规划的结果。在我称之为战略怀疑主义的领域,战略规划并不完全是学术界鼓吹的分析过程。

The preceding discussion may have given the impression that corporations are successful as a result of expert strategic planning. In the area that I call strategic skepticism, strategic planning is not quite the analytical process preached by academics.

根据麻省理工学院斯隆学院的 James Brian Quinn 的说法,战略被认为是逻辑渐进主义的过程。在他看来,战略是长期做出的许多较小决策的结果。其他理论家也认为,战略不像前几页中介绍的那样是一个正式的过程。策略可以有五种形式,都以P 开头:

According to James Brian Quinn of MIT’s Sloan School, strategy is considered to be a process of logical incrementalism. In his view, strategy is the result of many smaller decisions taken over a long time. Other theorists also hold that strategy is not as formal a process as that presented in the preceding pages. Strategy can take five forms, all starting with P:

 

 

  • 计划
  • Plan
  • 策略
  • Ploy
  • 图案
  • Pattern
  • 过程
  • Process
  • 看法
  • Perspective

在一家公司中,战略是正式计划的结果。通用电气使用麦肯锡的投资组合技术买卖其部门。另一方面,战略是执行成功的战术策略。卡夫食品不是只在杂货店销售咖啡,而是使用邮购方式销售其 Gevalia 品牌。

In one company, strategy is the result of a formal plan. General Electric buys and sells its divisions using McKinsey’s portfolio techniques. In another, strategy is the execution of a successful tactical ploy. Instead of marketing coffee only in grocery stores, Kraft Foods uses mail order to sell its Gevalia brand.

战略也可以只是开展业务和制定决策的模式、流程视角。根据我在一家小型珠宝企业的经验,我们遵循一个简单的理念。我们善待我们的客户,给他们最优惠的价格,并且对商品完全诚实。这种有意识地选择的开展业务的方式是一个成功的策略。

Strategy can also be just a pattern, a process, or perspective of conducting business and making decisions. In my own experience in a small jewelry business, we followed a simple philosophy. We treated our customers well, gave them the best prices, and were completely honest about the merchandise. This consciously chosen way of conducting business was a successful strategy.

战略可以是企业家因帆船的轰鸣而产生的洞察力的产物,也可以是随着时间的推移制定的一系列临时计划。无论哪种方式,顾问出售的正式规划流程并不总是答案。

Strategy can be the product of an entrepreneur’s insight as a result of being hit with the boom of his or her sailboat, or it can be a series of ad hoc plans that develop over time. Either way, the formal planning processes sold by consultants are not always the answer.

历史经常被改写以适应战略规划者的理论。本田摩托车成功的一个版本将本田宗智郎描述为一种由意志和梦想驱动的自由精神。他没有宏伟的计划。公司的成功源于他强烈渴望制造一辆获胜的赛车摩托车,以及他在 1958 年缓慢、逐步地将他的摩托车引入美国市场。幸运的是,对 Sochiro 来说,美国对他的摩托车几乎没有限制“无关紧要”的日本进口。

History is often rewritten to suit the theories of strategic planners. One version of the success of Honda motorcycles described Sochiro Honda as a free spirit driven by will and a dream. He had no grand plan. The success of the company was the product of his burning desire to build a winning racing motorcycle and his slow, step-by-step introduction of his motorcycle into the U.S. market in 1958. Luckily for Sochiro, the United States placed few restrictions on his “inconsequential” Japanese import.

BCG 的顾问向他们的英国摩托车行业客户讲述了一个关于本田的截然不同的故事。在他们看来,本田计划沿着学习曲线走下去,以降低成本并通过低定价建立世界市场份额。该公司的主导市场份额允许对研究和先进制造技术进行大量投资。BCG 报告说,本田的市场领导地位还使该公司能够以更低的每辆自行车成本为本田做广告和促销。哪个版本的历史是真实的?就个人而言,我倾向于更丰富多彩的故事,但成本领先原则显然在本田的成功中发挥了重要作用,无论是否有计划。事实上,如果理论与管理者自身的良好判断力和常识相结合,战略可以成为艺术与科学的成功结合。

Consultants at BCG told a much different story about Honda to their British motorcycle industry clients. In their view, Honda had calculated to go down the learning curve to achieve lower costs and build world market share through low pricing. The company’s dominant market share allowed for large investments in research and advanced manufacturing techniques. BCG reported that Honda’s market leadership also allowed the company to advertise and promote Honda at lower costs per bike. Which version of history is true? Personally, I gravitate toward the more colorful story, but the cost leadership principle obviously played a large role in Honda’s success, planned or not. In fact, if theory is used in conjunction with a manager’s own good judgment and common sense, strategy can be a winning mix of art and science.

 

 

战略与中国战争

STRATEGY AND CHINESE WARFARE

如果不提及公元前四世纪的中国军事战略家孙子,任何关于战略的课程都将是不完整的。不知何故,他的格言已经进入了许多关于战略的 MBA 对话。我想象暴躁的本田先生经常引用他的话。孙子的书《孙子兵法》甚至摆在我前任老板的办公桌上。引用孙子的话肯定会让您听起来非常聪明,或者看起来像电影《华尔街》中无情的内幕交易员戈登·盖柯。如果您敢于使用,以下是您下一次商务会议的一些精选报价:

No lesson on strategy would be complete without mentioning Sun-tzu, a Chinese military strategist of the fourth century b.c. Somehow his maxims have entered into many an MBA conversation about strategy. I imagine the irascible Mr. Honda quoting him quite often. Sun-tzu’s book, The Art of War, even sat on my former boss’s desk. Quoting Sun-tzu is sure to make you either sound terribly smart or appear like the ruthless insider trader Gordon Gekko in the movie Wall Street. Here are a few choice quotes for your next business meeting, if you dare use them:

 

 

所有的战争都是建立在欺骗的基础上的。

All warfare is based on deception.

给敌人一个诱饵来引诱他;假装混乱并殴打他。

Offer the enemy a bait to lure him; feign disorder and strike him.

百战百胜,非技高一筹。不战而克敌,是技高一筹。

For to win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill.

在战争中,单靠数量并不能带来优势。不要单靠兵力前进。

In war, numbers alone confer no advantage. Do not advance relying on sheer military power.

因此,战争中最重要的是攻击敌人的战略。

Thus, what is of supreme importance in war is to attack the enemy’s strategy.

 

 

战略实施

STRATEGIC IMPLEMENTATION

正如我在本章开头所指出的,不着眼于实施的战略制定是浪费时间。战略变革对于MBA来说是一个很容易谈论的话题,但实现起来并不容易。一个聪明的报价不会削减它。我不可能在一章中告诉你如何扭转失败的企业,但我可以将战略思维放在眼里。与某些学者会让您相信的相反,没有任何一种策略或伎俩构成战略。相反,战略是公司的“整体”如何协同工作以实现目标。

As I indicated at the beginning of this chapter, strategy development without an eye toward implementation is a waste of time. Strategic changes are an easy topic for MBAs to talk about, but are not easy to accomplish. A clever quote won’t cut it. I cannot possibly tell you how to turn around a failing business in a chapter, but I can put strategic thinking into perspective. Contrary to what some academics would lead you to believe, no one tactic or trick constitutes strategy; rather, strategy is how the “totality” of a company works together to achieve goals.

高管们不会在一天内想出或实施战略。

Executives do not think up or implement strategy in one day.

领导者必须辨别哪些因素在他们的控制范围内,哪些不在他们的控制范围之内。MBA 将他们控制范围内的这些因素称为行动杠杆。战略家还必须应对人类抵制变革的现实。他们必须设定切实的目标,制定行动计划,并在事情没有按预期进行时制定应急计划。这与组织行为一章中概述的行动计划顺序相同。

Leaders have to discern which factors are within their control and which are not. MBAs call those factors within their control the action levers. Strategists must also deal with the reality of human resistance to change. They must set tangible goals, formulate their action plan, and develop contingency plans if things do not go as intended. This is the same action-planning sequence outlined in the organizational behavior chapter.

战略是动态的。高管们必须不断审查他们的战略,以确保它反映了商业环境、公司及其目标的变化。竞争优势的源泉是对竞争对手无法轻易复制的不断发展的战略的追求。

Strategy is dynamic. Executives must review their strategy continuously to ensure that it reflects the changes in the business environment, the company, and its goals. The source of competitive advantage is the pursuit of an evolving strategy that cannot easily be duplicated by competitors.

 

 

关键战略要点

KEY STRATEGY TAKEAWAYS

七个 S 模型——战略是公司所有 S 的协同工作方式。

The Seven S model—Strategy is how all of a company’s S’s work together.

价值链——生产和交付商品和服务的过程

The Value Chain—The process of producing and delivering goods and services

整合——扩展业务的方式:向后、向前、纵向、横向

Integration—Ways to expand a business: backward, forward, vertically, horizontally

安索夫矩阵——企业扩张的四大战略

Ansoff Matrix—Four strategies for business expansion

波特的五力理论——决定一个行业竞争强度的五种力量

Porter’s Five Forces Theory—Five forces that determine the competitive intensity of an industry

学习曲线——生产的单位越多,单位成本因生产效率下降就越低。

The Learning Curve—The more units produced, the lower the cost per unit falls due to production efficiencies.

信号——与竞争对手间接沟通

Signaling—Indirectly communicating with competitors

囚徒困境——行业内竞争关系的俘虏本质

The Prisoner’s Dilemma—The captive nature of competitive relationships within an industry

投资组合策略——大型多业务公司用来决定他们应该购买、出售或持有哪些公司的理论

Portfolio Strategies—The theories large multibusiness corporations use to decide which companies they should buy, sell, or hold

全球化——由于各种全球化因素,某些行业固有的全球竞争

Globalization—The worldwide competition inherent in certain industries due to a variety of globalizing factors

Synergy——共享资源的两家公司合并产生的增量利润

Synergy—The incremental profits generated by the combination of two companies that share resources

渐进主义——战略不是一个宏伟的计划,而是随着时间的推移逐步发展的概念

Incrementalism—The concept that strategy is not a grand scheme but is developed over time, step-by-step

第 10 天

Day 10

MBA 迷你课程

MBA MINICOURSES

研究和竞争情报收集

RESEARCH AND COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE GATHERING

公开演讲

PUBLIC SPEAKING

谈判

NEGOTIATING

国际业务

INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS

商务法

BUSINESS LAW

商业写作

BUSINESS WRITING

房地产投资

REAL ESTATE INVESTING

领导力教练

LEADERSHIP COACH

理财规划师

FINANCIAL PLANNER

 

 

关于研究和竞争情报收集的十分钟迷你课程

THE TEN-MINUTE MINICOURSE ON RESEARCH AND COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE GATHERING

据说信息就是力量。这就是 MBA 学校教授学生研究技能的原因。高效和富有成效的研究的关键是知道在哪里寻找信息。通过在你的工作中多付出一点努力,作为一个为期十天的 MBA,你可能会获得那些不那么勤奋的同事可能无法理解的绝妙见解或事实。在这本书的所有章节中,这一节可能对您最有价值,所以我就此结束。假设您需要有关竞争对手、个人或行业的事实;以下是一些合适的地方。

It is said that information is power. That is why MBA schools teach students research skills. The key to efficient and productive research is to know where to seek information. By putting a little more effort into your job, you as a Ten-Day MBA may get that brilliant insight or fact that may elude your less industrious colleagues. Of all the sections in this book, this one may be the most valuable to you, so I finish with it. Suppose you need facts about a competitor, a person, or an industry; the following are some of the right places to look.

 

 

互联网

THE INTERNET

过去只能在大学图书馆才能获得的内容,现在任何可以访问 Internet 的人都可以获得。可以利用的产品、业务和行业信息的数量是巨大的。搜索 Internet 确实需要耐心,因为它没有整齐地组织来回答您的问题。您应该访问多个站点以进行良好的搜索。这里有几个:

What used to be available only at a university library is now available to anyone who can access the Internet. The sheer volume of product, business, and industry information that can be tapped is enormous. Searching the Internet does require patience because it is not neatly organized to answer your questions. You should visit several sites to perform a good search. Here are several:

 

 

谷歌.com

Google.com

雅虎网

Yahoo.com

必应网

Bing.com

维基百科.com

Wikipedia.com

实时网

Realtime.com

博客搜索网

BlogSearch.com

 

 

当您登录到这些站点中的每一个时,请查看搜索的最佳语法,以便您可以将搜索中的一千个响应保持在最低限度。通过使用正确的语法限制搜索词,您将节省大量时间。

When you log on to each of these sites, review the optimal syntax for searches so that you can keep searches with a thousand responses to a minimum. By limiting your search terms with the correct syntax, you will save a great deal of time.

以电子方式收集信息的另一个途径是特殊兴趣小组论坛和博客在那里,您可以轻松地向对您正在研究的主题感兴趣的其他人提问,或者您可以阅读成员发布的消息。亚马逊有一个“在本书中搜索”的功能,非常有用而且免费。

The other avenue for gathering information electronically is special-interest-group forums and blogs. There, you can easily ask questions of others who are interested in the subject you are researching, or you can read messages members have posted. Amazon has a “search inside this book” feature that is helpful and free.

WSJ.com 上的 Factiva 是一项经济实惠的商业主题研究服务。该数据库包括来自道琼斯和路透社数据库的数千个资源,这些资源大多无法在免费网络上获得。

A great affordable service for researching business subjects is Factiva at WSJ.com. The database includes thousands of sources from the Dow Jones and Reuters databases that are mostly not available on the free Web.

您可以在 www.uspto.gov 上搜索现有的商标和专利。它是竞争信息的重要来源,可以帮助您进行产品命名和开发活动。

You can search existing trademarks and patents at www.uspto.gov. It is a great source of competitive information and can aid you in your product-naming and development activities.

 

 

书籍和在线数据库

BOOKS AND ONLINE DATABASES

Standard & Poor's Industry Surveys — 这套多卷本提供了对 20 个主要行业的出色、及时、深入的研究。

Standard & Poor’s Industry Surveys—This multivolume set provides excellent, timely, in-depth research of twenty major industries.

价值线投资调查——该资源为 76 个行业的投资者提供详细的最新公司信息。

Value Line Investment Surveys—This source provides detailed, up-to-date company information for investors in seventy-six industries.

Plunkett 的行业年鉴— 这套多卷本描述了行业和公司 (www.plunketresearch.com)

Plunkett’s Industry Almanacs—This multivolume set describes industries and companies (www.plunketresearch.com)

Gale Research —Gale Research 出版了一系列书籍,这些书籍是所有优秀商业图书馆的基石:

Gale Research—Gale Research publishes a series of books that are the cornerstones of all good business libraries:

  • Market Share Reporter——本书介绍了出现在公共资源中的市场份额数据。这很省时!
  • Market Share Reporter—This book presents market share data that appear in public sources. It’s a timesaver!
  • 年度商业排名——这本书提供了出现在公共资源中的商业排名数据。这是一个很好的行业来源。
  • Business Rankings Annual—This book gives business ranking data that appear in public sources. It is a good industry source.
  • 协会百科全书——大多数行业和产品都有协会、贸易团体和俱乐部。这些组织很乐意帮助人们了解他们、了解他们的成员资格或了解他们的兴趣。许多出版研究报告、会员名录和时事通讯。他们的人员还可以引导您找到其他信息来源。不要忽视协会百科全书。
  • Encyclopedia of Associations—Most industries and products have associations, trade groups, and clubs. These organizations are happy to assist people to learn about them, their membership, or their interests. Many publish research studies, membership directories, and newsletters. Their people can also lead you to other sources of information. Do not overlook the Encyclopedia of Associations.

百科全书——可能是最容易被忽视的快速、简明信息来源。大英百科全书或维基百科永远不会太老。

Encyclopedias—Probably the most overlooked source of quick, predigested information. You’re never too old to look at the Encyclopedia Britannica or Wikipedia.

The Lifestyle Market Analyst——这项由 National Demographics and Lifestyles 发布的年度研究报告是营销信息的最佳来源之一。它结合了人口统计、生活方式和媒体习惯。他们还发布了 Zip Code Analyst。

The Lifestyle Market Analyst—This annual study published by National Demographics and Lifestyles is one of the best sources of marketing information. It combines demographics, lifestyles, and media habits. They also publish the Zip Code Analyst.

Congressional Quarterly's Washington Information Directory — 这本书让华盛顿官僚机构的所有资源触手可及。有关商务部的条目有助于国际贸易。如果您缴纳了所得税,您就已经为这项服务付费了。为什么不使用它?

Congressional Quarterly’s Washington Information Directory—This book puts all the resources of the Washington bureaucracy at your fingertips. The entries about the Commerce Department are helpful for international trade. If you pay your income taxes, you have paid for this service. Why not use it?

谷歌学术——大学研究论文的数据库。

Google Scholar—A database of university research papers.

 

 

国际业务

INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS

在 . 做生意 . . 该系列由普华永道和安永会计师事务所出版,是国际商人的极佳信息来源。它讨论了国际商务的习俗和各种细节。

Doing Business in . . . This series published by PricewaterhouseCoopers and Ernst & Young is an excellent source of information for the international businessperson. It discusses the customs and a variety of the finer points of international business.

 

 

昂贵的研究

EXPENSIVE RESEARCH

Nexis Research Database——某些图书馆和企业提供这种昂贵的在线计算机服务。它允许访问整个新闻、金融和营销数据库。必须仔细定义关键字搜索,因为可用数据太多。如果您有成本意识,请首先寻找免费的信息来源。如果没有,这是现存最强大的数据库之一。它会为你节省很多时间。

The Nexis Research Database—This expensive online computer service is available at some libraries and businesses. It allows access to whole libraries of news, financial, and marketing data. Keyword searches must carefully be defined because so much data is available. Seek free sources of information first if you are cost-conscious. If not, this is one of the most powerful databases that exists. It will save you a lot of time.

Find/SVP — 提供大多数产品类别的现成研究。他们写得很好的报告价格从几百到几千美元不等。他们的研究包含许多可从其他来源免费获得的信息,以及一些专有研究。

Find/SVP—Provides off-the-shelf studies of most product categories. Their well-written reports range in price from a few hundred to several thousand dollars. Their studies contain much of the information that is available for free from other sources, as well as some proprietary research.

金融数据库——Factset、Capital IQ、Factiva、Bloomberg、Investex 和 SDC 是公司和图书馆机构提供的昂贵的金融数据库。

Financial Databases—Factset, Capital IQ, Factiva, Bloomberg, Investex, and SDC are expensive financial databases available at corporate and library institutions.

 

 

访谈

INTERVIEWS

总是可以通过与人交谈来收集信息。最大的错误是完成采访而忽略要求推荐其他来源。在与几家公司或业内人士建立联系后,您可以向其他人透露自己的名字。通过提及他们已经认识的人的名字,您可以让受访者感到更自在,并且他们会更慷慨地提供信息。

Information can always be gathered by talking to people. The biggest mistake is to finish an interview and neglect to ask for referrals to other sources. After networking with several company or industry insiders, you can name-drop your way to other people. By mentioning the name of someone they already know, you make interviewees feel more at ease, and they become more generous with their information.

 

 

贸易展

TRADE SHOWS

如果您真的想了解一个行业,请参加其年度贸易展。在一个位置,您将看到所有主要参与者和新产品。展会名录是行业联系人的百科全书。国内和国际贸易展览有多种在线资源。我经常参加硬件、家庭用品、玩具、礼品和汽车贸易展。

If you really want to know about an industry, attend its annual trade show. In one location you will get to see all the major players and new products. The show directory serves as an encyclopedia of industry contacts. There are several online sources for domestic and international trade shows. I have regularly attended the hardware, housewares, toy, gift, and automotive trade shows.

 

 

保持最新

KEEPING CURRENT

MBA 必须花时间阅读一些报纸和杂志。MBA 必须知情,而这些出版物为他们提供了信息优势。如果他们不知道世界上正在发生什么,他们怎么能指望聪明地说话和思考呢?要想成功,你必须读书。

There are a few newspapers and magazines that MBAs must make time for. MBAs must be informed, and these publications give them the information edge. How can they expect to talk and think intelligently if they do not know what is going on in the world? To succeed, you must read.

 

 

华尔街日报——如果您没有时间阅读更多内容,请阅读头版。它为您提供您需要了解的商业新闻。

The Wall Street Journal—If you don’t have time to read more, just read the front page. It gives you the business news that you need to know.

福布斯、彭博商业周刊 巴伦周刊——这些是最好的商业杂志。对于新闻,有 Journal,但这些杂志为您提供趋势以及为聪明的商业读者撰写的故事和分析类型。

Forbes, Bloomberg Businessweek, and Barron’s—These are the best business magazines. For news, there is the Journal, but these magazines give you the trends and the types of stories and analyses that are written for the intelligent business reader.

Advertising Age——大多数商业杂志都有财务倾向,但 Advertising Age 从纯粹的营销角度出发。它是广告界的行业杂志。它给人一种全面的商业前景。由于大多数产品都有广告,因此它是竞争信息的良好来源。

Advertising Age—Most business magazines have a financial bent, but Advertising Age comes at business from a pure marketing perspective. It is the trade magazine of the advertising world. It gives a person a well-rounded business outlook. Since most products are advertised, it is a good source of competitive information.

本地报纸/本地商业期刊——如果您不了解社区中的商业人士,他们可能永远不会认识您。

Local Paper/Local Business Journals—If you don’t know the business players in your community, they will probably never know you.

 

 

十秒公开演讲迷你课程

THE TEN-SECOND MINICOURSE ON PUBLIC SPEAKING

1. 了解你的听众。

1. Know your audience.

他们的兴趣、注意力广度

Their interests, attention span

2.了解自己的能力。

2. Know your own capabilities.

你能开个玩笑吗?

Can you deliver a joke?

3. 保持简单。

3. Keep it simple.

详细信息最好以印刷形式提供。

Detailed information is best delivered in print.

演讲应该传达一个概念和激励。

Speeches should deliver a concept and motivate.

KISS——保持简短。

KISS—Keep It Short and Simple.

 

 

关于谈判的一分钟迷你课程

THE ONE-MINUTE MINICOURSE ON NEGOTIATING

1.了解你的对手。

1. Know your opponent.

气质、历史、能力、资源

Temperament, history, capabilities, resources

2.了解你自己。

2. Know yourself.

气质、历史、能力、资源

Temperament, history, capabilities, resources

当两个人的愿望发生冲突时,有些人比其他人更能处理紧张局势。最好不要欺骗自己的性情。尝试努力提高您处理冲突的能力,或者学习补偿冲突。

When the desires of two individuals clash, there is a tension that some people handle better than others. It’s best not to fool yourself about your own temperament. Try to work either to improve your ability to handle conflict, or to learn to compensate for it.

3. 做功课。

3. Do your homework.

了解可能的结算场景的影响。

Understand the impact of possible settlement scenarios.

4. 提前确定你的策略和限制。

4. Determine your strategy and limits ahead of time.

不惜一切代价不要陷入“需要取胜”的境地。

Do not get caught up in the “need to win” at all costs.

5. 事后回顾每一次谈判,为下一次谈判积累知识。

5. Review each negotiation afterward to gain knowledge for the next negotiation.

我可以改进什么?我能从我的对手身上学到什么?

What can I improve on? What can I learn from my opponent?

 

 

关于开展国际业务*(和外交政策)的一分钟迷你课程

THE ONE-MINUTE MINICOURSE ON CONDUCTING INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS* (AND FOREIGN POLICY)

1. 了解东道主的文化、价值观、习俗和信仰。不要假设你们的价值观是共享的。

1. Understand the host’s culture, values, customs, and beliefs. Don’t assume that your values are shared.

2.身在异国他乡,你就是客人。他们是主人,他们有权力。

2. When you are in a foreign country, you are a guest. They are the host and they have the power.

3.你是外国人,永远不会真正了解他们。

3. You are a foreigner and you will never really understand them.

4. 跨国公司的竞争优势来自于他们跨国界转移经验和避免错误的能力。

4. Multinational corporations get their competitive advantage from their ability to transfer their experience across borders and avoid mistakes.

5. 国际投资是长期投资。其回报的衡量标准也应该是长期的。

5. International investment is a long-term investment. The measure of its return should also be a long-term one.

6. 如果不真正尊重东道国及其人民,你将一事无成。如果你不尊重他们,他们会知道的。

6. You will have little success without true respect for the host country and its people. If you do not respect them, they’ll know it.

7. 在国际商业中,有很大的道德决策空间。充当你自己的警察。

7. In international business there is a lot of room for ethical decision making. Act as your own policeman.

 

 

二十分钟商法迷你课程(二十分钟律师)

THE TWENTY-MINUTE MINICOURSE ON BUSINESS LAW(THE TWENTY-MINUTE LAWYER)

您可以将其称为“二十分钟律师”,但这部分实际上是对商法最基本概念的回顾。这里没有离婚法。由于法律可以有多种解释,对这些概念或相关措辞中的任何一个的严格解释都可以写成一本书,并且可以由法律学者进行辩论,但本着十天 MBA 的精神,它们在此处快速概述. 关于合伙企业和公司等业务结构的讨论已经在财务章节中进行了讨论。

You could call it “The Twenty-Minute Lawyer,” but this section is really a review of the most basic concepts of business law. No divorce law here. As the law is open to many interpretations, a strict interpretation of any of these concepts or related wording could fill a book and could be debated by legal scholars, but in the spirit of The Ten-Day MBA, they are outlined here in quick order. Discussions about business structures such as partnerships and corporations have already been discussed in the finance chapter.

 

 

普通法

COMMON LAW

普通法是美国法律的基础。通常它被称为判例法。普通法是根据先前的案件判决和意见制定的法律和准则框架。法院的决定称为控股。Stare decisis指法院应遵循先前法院判决的方向,尤其是上级法院的判决。美国法律制度的必要条件是它是可预测的、灵活的、可理解的和合理的。以普通法为平台的两类法律在该体系中发挥着关键作用。

Common law is the basis of law in the United States. Often it is called case law. Common law is the framework of laws and guidelines that has been developed based on prior case decisions and opinions. A court’s decision is called a holding. Stare decisis means that the court should follow the direction of prior court decisions, especially superior court rulings. The requisites of the American legal system are that it is predictable, flexible, understandable, and reasonable. Two types of law based on the platform of common law play key roles in the system.

 

 

实体法和程序法

SUBSTANTIVE AND PROCEDURAL LAWS

实体法是定义法律行为的实际规则和条例。这些包括人们在社会中拥有的权利和义务。程序法管理这些规则和条例在司法系统内的实施或访问方式,以试图强制执行公平有效地使用该系统的命令。

Substantive laws are the actual rules and regulations that define legal behavior. These include the rights and obligations that people have in society. Procedural laws govern the way those rules and regulations are implemented or accessed within the system of justice, in an attempt to impose an order for using the system fairly and efficiently.

当律师实际适用法律时,他们会参考称为法规的州和联邦法典。成文法是由州和联邦立法机关或政府机构制定的逐字逐句的实质性规则。这些法律包括刑法、税法和政府法规。为了调查这些法规在实际案件中的适用情况,律师会参考称为判例法的裁决或意见的主体。通过结合法律和意见,律师可以按照法院的程序规则为他或她的委托人在法庭上辩护。

When lawyers actually apply the law, they refer to the state and federal codes called statutes. Statutory laws are the word-for-word substantive rules enacted by the state and federal legislatures or governmental agencies. These laws include criminal law, tax law, and governmental regulations. To investigate how those statutes were applied in actual case situations, a lawyer refers to the body of rulings or opinions called case law. By combining statutes and opinions, a lawyer can make a case for his or her client in court following procedural rules of the court.

对于 MBA,商业交易很重要,因此您会听到很多关于统一商法典(UCC) 的信息。这是一个特殊的法律体系,出于商业目的结合了成文法和判例法。它是每个州采用的全面法规,涵盖商业交易的主要领域,包括销售合同和商业票据。它的“统一性”为州际贸易提供了一套稳定的规则。如果没有 UCC,在每个州开展业务就像在国外开展业务一样。

For the MBA, business transactions are important, thus you hear a great deal about the Uniform Commercial Code (UCC). This is a special body of law that combines both the statutory and the case law for business purposes. It is a comprehensive statute adopted by each state that covers the major areas of business transactions, including sales contracts and commercial paper. Its “uniformity” provides a stable set of rules for interstate commerce. Without the UCC, doing business in each state would be like doing business in a foreign country.

 

 

法律程序

THE LEGAL PROCESS

一个标准的法律行动有九个步骤:

A standard legal action has nine steps:

 

 

1.管辖权——法院审理案件,必须具有审理标的物的管辖权和约束当事人的权力。

1. Jurisdiction—For a court to hear a case, it must have jurisdiction to hear the subject matter and the power to bind the parties.

2.诉状——诉状是开始审判程序的必要文件。原告提交最初的文书工作,称为投诉或请愿书。原告主张被告有过错,请求处罚或补救。在法律注释中,原告写成希腊字母 pi (π),被告写成希腊字母 delta (Δ)。

2. Pleadings—Pleadings are the necessary paperwork to begin the trial process. The plaintiff files the initial paperwork, called a complaint or petition. The plaintiff asserts that the defendant has done a wrong and requests a punishment or remedy. In law notes, plaintiff is written as the Greek letter pi (π) and defendant as the Greek letter delta (∆).

3.证据开示——律师在证据开示期间收集审判前所需的信息和证人。双方都可以看到对方持有的证据。与您在电影中看到的不同,应该没有惊喜。

3. Discovery—Lawyers gather the required information and witnesses before a trial during discovery. Each side is allowed to see the evidence held by the other side. Unlike what you may have seen in the movies, there should be no surprises.

4.审前会议——经常为联邦民事案件举行,在这个会议上,律师和法官试图将案件的问题组织起来,缩小到最重要的问题,使审判更有效率。庭外和解通常发生在此时。

4. Pretrial Conference—Often held for federal civil cases, at this meeting lawyers and the judge try to organize and narrow the issues of the case to the most important ones to make the trial more efficient. Often out-of-court settlements occur at this point.

5.审判——审判是法庭审理的程序。如果选择陪审团,则选择过程称为 voir dire。审讯地点称为会场。陪审团决定事实争议,法官解释法律并指导陪审团。如果原告的案件没有法律依据,法官可以作出简易判决,不经进一步审理就结案。

5. Trial—The trial is proceedings before the court. If a jury is selected, the process of selection is called voir dire. The location of the trial is called the venue. The jury decides the factual disputes, and the judge interprets the law and instructs the jury. If the plaintiff’s case has no merit, a summary judgment can be made by the judge, ending the case without further trial.

6.法官对陪审团的指示和判决——法官就其裁决中涉及的法律问题向陪审团进行指示。陪审团在其权力范围内对事实和处罚做出决定。

6. Jury Instruction by the Judge and the Verdict—The judge instructs the jury about the issues of law involved in its decision. The jury makes its determination about the facts and penalty within its authority.

7.审后动议——此步骤包括出于各种原因要求法院重审,并说明为何需要重新审理。法律和程序错误、陪审团行为不当或不寻常的损害赔偿金都可以作为上诉的依据。新证据很少是上诉成功的基础。

7. Posttrial Motions—This step includes asking the court, for various reasons, for a retrial and indicating why a new trial is warranted. Errors of law and procedure, jury misconduct, or unusual damage awards can be the basis for an appeal. Rarely is new evidence the basis for a successful appeal.

8.上诉——一般来说,诉讼的每一方都有权向上诉法院提出一次上诉。概述上诉依据的文件称为摘要。它充满了相当冗长的论点,并引用了先前的法院判决和适用的法规,以提出重新审判的理由。

8. Appeal—Generally each party of a lawsuit is entitled to one appeal at an appellate court. The paperwork outlining the basis for the appeal is called a brief. It is filled with the rather lengthy arguments and with citations of prior court decisions and applicable statutes to make the case for a new trial.

9.确保或执行判决——将此人送进监狱或收钱。

9. Secure or Enforce the Judgment—Send the person to jail or collect the money.

 

 

在没有法庭的情况下解决商业纠纷

SETTLING A BUSINESS DISPUTE WITHOUT THE COURTS

如果他们想避免通过法庭来解决争端,各方可以请一位中立的调解人。

If they want to avoid the courts to settle a dispute, the parties can bring in a neutral peacemaker.

 

 

调解——调解员具有指导各方公平解决的非约束性权力。但是,如果各方不喜欢该决定,则可以退出。

Mediation—A mediator has a nonbinding authority to direct the parties to a fair settlement. However, the parties can back out if they do not like the decision.

仲裁——仲裁员有权约束争议各方。该决定为最终决定,不得上诉。这些仲裁员是经过注册、训练有素的专业人士。

Arbitration—An arbitrator has the power to bind the parties of a dispute. The decision is final and there are no appeals. These arbitrators are registered, trained professionals.

 

 

犯罪和侵权行为

CRIMES AND TORTS

法律围绕着一个人对另一个人做错事。错误可以归类为犯罪或侵权。

The law revolves around one person doing something wrong to another. A wrong can be classified either as a crime or a tort.

 

 

犯罪——犯罪是对社会的错误。根据成文法,可处以监禁、缓刑和罚款。应受惩罚的罪行是故意犯下的,称为犯罪意图,或因疏忽而犯下。防御包括自卫、必要性和精神错乱。

Crime—A crime is a wrong against society. It can be punished by jail, probation, and fines based on statutory law. Punishable crimes are committed with intent, called mens rea, or by negligence. Defenses include self-defense, necessity, and insanity.

侵权行为— 侵权是针对个人或财产的私人侵权行为。它包括严格的产品责任、欺诈、攻击和盗窃等行为,也称为转换。侵权行为是由故意的不法行为或疏忽行为造成的。根据民事判例法,侵权行为可处以金钱奖励。要被认定为疏忽,罪犯必须违反对原告的义务或作为谨慎的普通人行事的注意标准。如果一个人因专业技能而被雇用,则标准将是该专业或行业的标准。此外,被告人必须直接或间接地导致了他或她被指控的行为。就雇主而言,他们可能对其雇员在其职责范围内行事的行为负责。雇主的这种责任被称为被告上级。

Tort—A tort is a private wrong against a person or property. It includes acts such as strict product liability, fraud, assault, and theft, also called conversion. Torts result from intentional wrongful acts or negligent acts. Torts are punishable by monetary awards based on civil case law. To be found negligent, the offender must have breached a duty to the plaintiff or standard of care to act as a prudent person of ordinary skill. If a person is hired for a specialized skill, the standard would be that of the profession or trade. In addition, the accused person must have caused the act for which he or she is being charged, either directly or proximately. In the case of employers, they may be held responsible for the acts of their employees acting within the scope of their duties. This liability of employers is called respondent superior.

举证责任——在刑事诉讼中,必须“排除合理怀疑”才能认定有罪。在民事判决中,有罪是基于“证据优势”。

Burden of Proof—In criminal actions, guilt must be found “beyond a reasonable doubt.” In civil verdicts, guilt is based on a “preponderance of the evidence.”

 

 

通常情况下,案件既有刑事成分,也有民事成分。例如,在刑事挪用公款案件中,被告可能会因盗窃而入狱。在民事诉讼中,原告可以尝试追回款项并获得法院的金钱赔偿。对侵权行为的辩护包括真相(反驳指控)、同意(“经我同意完成”)和精神错乱。

Often cases have both a criminal and a civil component. For instance, in a criminal embezzlement case, the defendant can be sent to jail for stealing. In a civil proceeding, the plaintiff can try to recover the money and be awarded monetary damages by the court. Defenses to tort actions include the truth (refuting the allegation), consent (“done with my consent”), and insanity.

 

 

合同法和财产法

CONTRACTS AND PROPERTY LAW

在大多数业务关系中,人们为了利益而相互签订合同。尽管合同一词在对话中经常使用,但合同具有特定的法律定义。在法律注释中,合同写为K。

In most business relationships people enter into contracts with one another for a benefit. Although the word contract is frequently used in conversation, a contract has a specific legal definition. In legal notes a contract is written as a K.

 

 

合同——合同是两方或多方之间具有法律效力的协议,无论是明示的还是暗示的。合同生效必须满足四个条件:

Contracts—A contract is a legally enforceable agreement, either express or implied, between two or more parties. Four conditions must be met for a contract to be valid:

 

 

1. 当事人的行为能力——当事人必须具有签订协议的法定权力和精神行为能力。未成年人可以解除合同,但成年人不能解除与未成年人的合同。唯一的例外是称为必需品的物品,例如食物和住所。

1. Capacity of Parties—The parties must have legal authority and mental capacity to enter into the agreement. Minors can disaffirm their contracts, but adults cannot disaffirm a contract with a minor. The only exception is for items called necessaries such as food and shelter.

2. 相互同意(同意)或意见一致——必须有有效的提议和接受。要约必须清楚地表明订立合同的意图,明确其条款,并传达给另一方。一般来说,广告不是有效的报价;相反,它们是“交易邀请”。可以在接受前随时撤回要约。沉默不代表接受。

2. Mutual Agreement (Assent) or Meeting of the Minds—There must be a valid offer and an acceptance. The offer must clearly indicate an intent to make a contract, be definite as to its terms, and be communicated to the other party. Generally advertisements are not valid offers; rather they are “invitations to deal.” An offer can be withdrawn anytime before acceptance. Silence does not constitute acceptance.

3. 给出的对价——必须给出有价值的承诺才能执行。

3. Consideration Given—There must be value given for the promise to be enforceable.

4. 合法性——您不能执行涉及非法商品或行为的合同。

4. Legality—You cannot enforce a contract dealing with illegal goods or actions.

 

 

财产

PROPERTY

商业围绕财产展开,并为自己收集大部分财产。财产不仅是物,而且是与财产相关的权利和义务的集合。有几类财产:

Business revolves around property, and gathering the most of it for yourself. Property is not only a thing, but also the collection of rights and responsibilities associated with the property. There are several classes of property:

 

 

不动产——土地

Real Property—Land

个人财产——不附属于土地或建筑物的财产。动产也称为动产。

Personal Property—Property not attached to land or building. Personal property is also called chattel.

Fixture——附属于不动产的个人财产

Fixture—Personal property attached to real property

知识产权——没有物理形式的创意财产

Intellectual Properties—Creative property that has no physical form

专利——专利是新颖的、有用的、不明显的发明或过程的二十年权利。1995 年 6 月之前,专利有效期为 17 年。

Patents—Patents are twenty-year rights to novel, useful, and not obvious inventions or processes. Before June 1995 patents lasted seventeen years.

版权— 版权是对书面作品享有作者有生之年加七十年的权利。在 1978 年 1 月之前,版权的有效期最长可达 75 年。

Copyrights—A copyright is the right to written works for the life of the author plus seventy years. Before January 1978, a copyright could last up to seventy-five years.

商标——这些是商业贸易中使用的商标的可续订二十年权利。

Trademarks—These are renewable twenty-year rights for marks used in a trade of business.

 

 

统一商业法典 (UCC) 第 2 条:销售合同

UNIFORM COMMERCIAL CODE (UCC) ARTICLE 2: SALES CONTRACTS

前面提到的 UCC 涵盖了与财产相关的交易和合同的许多方面。它是法律的重要组成部分,因此在此处和随后的单独章节中对其进行了更深入的介绍。该法案与财产相关的部分将“商人”定义为定期交易合同中所含商品的人。商家之间的交易被认为是特殊的,并且具有不同级别的合同强制执行所需的文件。

The UCC mentioned previously covers many aspects of property-related transactions and contracts. It is such an important part of the law that it is covered in greater depth here and in separate sections that follow. The property-related part of the act defines a “merchant” as a person who regularly deals in the goods included in the contract. Transactions between merchants are considered special and have different levels of documentation required for a contract to be enforceable.

 

 

托管托管是在有限的时间和特殊目的内,将财产从托管人临时转移给托管人,而不是财产所有权。将要洗的衣服送到清洁工处是一种寄托。

Bailment—A bailment is a temporary transfer of possession, not ownership, of property from a bailor to a bailee for a limited time and a special purpose. Sending your laundry to the cleaner is a bailment.

当一个人在委托中交付个人财产时,受托人所需的注意标准取决于这种关系的互惠互利。如果寄托是为了寄托人的唯一利益,则只需要“轻微的注意”。“帮我一个忙:我不在的时候,请帮我把这个放在你家里”就是一个例子。如果托管是为了双方的共同利益,例如有偿仓库,则需要“合理程度的谨慎”。如果唯一的好处是受托人,则需要“极度谨慎”。(“这个周末我可以用你的车吗?”)

When a person delivers personal property in a bailment, the standard of care required by the bailee depends on the mutual benefit of the relationship. If the bailment is for the sole benefit of the bailor, only “slight degree of care” is required. “Do me a favor: Please keep this at your house for me while I’m away” is one example. If the bailment is for the mutual benefit of the parties, such as a paid warehouse, a “reasonable degree of care” is necessary. If the only benefit is for the bailee, an “extreme degree of care” is required. (“Can I use your car this weekend?”)

出售——出售是所有权的永久转让,以换取对或付款。卖方不能转让超过他或她拥有的权利,但以下三种情况除外:

Sale—A sale is a permanent transfer of ownership in exchange for a consideration or payment. The seller can convey no more rights than he or she owns, with three exceptions:

 

 

1. 好的所有权可以传递给“善意的善意购买者”。作为购买者,您不知道存在不良所有权。

1. A good title can pass to a “bona fide purchaser in good faith.” As a purchaser you have no knowledge that a bad title exists.

2. 如果您从已经向其他人销售过同类商品的零售商处购买,您就是“普通买家”。即使零售商可能没有,买家也可以拥有良好的所有权。

2. If you buy from a retailer, who has already sold the same type of goods to others, you are a “buyer in ordinary course.” The buyer can have good title even if the retailer may not.

3. 如果您从经销商处购买某类商品,即使该经销商以托管方式持有该商品,您也是“普通买家”。即使经销商不拥有货物,买方也可以拥有明确的所有权。

3. If you buy from a dealer in a type of goods, even if the dealer has the goods on a bailment, you are a “buyer in ordinary course.” The buyer can have clear title even though the dealer did not own the goods.

装运合同——您可能会在装运单据和发票上看到的几个条款表明损失风险何时从卖方转移到买方:最常见的是FOB,船上交货。在 FOB 点,损失风险转移给买方。CIF也可能出现在发票上。CIF 价格包括商品成本、保险费和运费。

Shipment Contracts—Several terms you may see on shipping documents and invoices indicate when the risk of loss passes from the seller to the buyer: the most common in FOB, free on board. At the FOB point the risk of loss passes to the buyer. CIF may appear on invoices as well. A CIF price includes cost of goods, insurance, and freight.

产品责任——产品责任涉及制造商和销售商对其销售的商品做出的保证。明示保证是对产品性能的书面或口头承诺。默示保证是在销售商品时做出的不需要书面或说出的承诺。适销性是一种默示保证,意味着商品适合其制造时的普通用途。笔是用来写字的,不是用来做手术的。适用性保证是另一种隐含保证,更具体地针对卖方故意销售产品的特定目的。如果卖家出于某种目的故意出售物品,则应履行该功能。还隐含了严格责任,它涵盖了产品在正确使用时无法按照合理的人所期望的那样安全或有效地运行的故障。

Product Liability—Product liability concerns the warranties that manufacturers and sellers make about the goods they sell. Express warranties are written or spoken promises about the performance of a product. Implied warranties are the promises made with the sale of goods that do not need to be written or said. Merchantability is an implied warranty meaning that the goods are fit for the ordinary purpose for which they were made. A pen is made for writing, not for performing surgery. A warranty of fitness is another implied warranty more specific to the particular purpose for which the seller knowingly sells the product. If the seller knowingly sells an item for a purpose, it should perform that function. Strict liability is also implied and it covers the failure of products when used properly to perform safely or effectively as reasonable persons would expect.

欺诈法——欺诈法规定要求某些重要合同采用书面形式以防止欺诈。涉及下列六项的合同必须采用书面形式:

Statute of Frauds—The statute of frauds provision requires that certain important contracts be in writing to prevent fraud. Contracts concerning the following six subjects must be in writing:

 

 

1.销售价值大于或等于500美元的商品

1. Sales of goods of value greater than or equal to $500

2. 土地买卖

2. Sale of land

3.一年内未履行的劳务合同

3. Contracts for services not to be performed within one year’s time

4.承诺偿还他人的债务

4. Promise to pay the debt incurred by another person

5. 遗产执行人承诺自掏腰包支付遗产费用

5. Promises of an estate’s executor to pay the expenses of the estate out of his or her own pocket

6. 婚姻安排中的嫁妆承诺

6. Promises of a dowry in a marriage arrangement

该协议不需要包含在一份书面文件中。如果协议的基本条款可以与被起诉方签署的几份文件拼凑在一起,则这些文件可以解释为有效合同。

The agreement does not need to be in one written document. If the basic terms of the agreement can be pieced together with several documents that were signed by the party being sued, these can be construed as a valid contract.

口头证据规则——口头证据规则禁止当事人通过引用合同以外的证据对书面合同提出异议。然而,这条规则有许多例外情况,这使得口头证据规则更像是一个指导方针,而不是一个严格的规则。例如,合同是在胁迫或欺诈下订立的证据可以是法院将在合同之外考虑的可接受证据。

Parol Evidence Rule—The parol evidence rule prohibits the parties from disputing the written contract by citing evidence external to the contract. There are many exceptions to this rule, however, that make the parol evidence rule more of a guideline than a strict rule. For example, evidence that a contract was entered into under duress or by fraud can be admissible evidence that a court will consider outside the contract.

相对性规则——相对性规则只允许合同中指定的当事人提起与合同有关的诉讼。范围可以扩大到包括受让合同产生的权利的人或收到合同履行结果的第三方受益人。

Privity Rule—The privity rule allows only those parties named in a contract to bring a lawsuit relating to a contract. The scope can be expanded to include those who are assigned rights created by the contract or third-party beneficiaries who receive the results of the contract’s performance.

不可抗力——不可抗力,例如飓风或洪水,可以作为不履行合同的有效借口。不可抗力通常作为合同的明示条款包含在内。

Force Majeure—Acts of God, such as hurricanes or floods, can be valid excuses for nonperformance of a contract. Force majeure is often included as an express clause of a contract.

更替——在两方之间的合同中,一方可以将其职责重新分配给第三方并免除合同。新的第三方承担履行书面合同的义务和责任。假设别人的房屋抵押贷款就是一个例子。

Novation—In a contract between two parties, one party may reassign his or her duties to a third party and be excused from the contract. The new third party assumes those duties and responsibilities to perform the contract as written. Assuming someone else’s home mortgage is an example.

合同诉讼的要素——诉讼必须包括以下要素:

Elements of a Contractual Lawsuit—Lawsuits must include the following elements:

 

 

1.合同存在的证明

1. Proof that a contract exists

2. 违反或不履行合同

2. Breach or nonperformance of the contract

3. 损害证明

3. Proof of damages

如果合同中包含规定对不履行的处罚的条款,则称为违约金。

If a clause is included in the contract specifying the penalties for nonperformance, it is called liquidated damages.

 

 

统一商业法典 (UCC) 第 3 条和第 4 条:商业票据

UNIFORM COMMERCIAL CODE (UCC) ARTICLES 3 AND 4: COMMERCIAL PAPER

商业票据或可转让票据是一种文件,可以由其持有人独立于创建它的各方进行价值交易。支票是可转让的票据。要具有可转让性,纸张必须具有以下特征:

Commercial or negotiable paper is a document that can be traded for value by its holder independent of the parties that created it. Checks are negotiable paper. To be negotiable, a paper must have the following characteristics:

 

 

1.必须是书面形式。

1. It must be in written form.

2. 必须由承诺支付的一方签字。

2. It must be signed by the party promising to pay.

3. 它必须包括无条件的付款承诺。

3. It must include an unconditional promise to pay.

4. 它必须指定支付一定数额的金钱。

4. It must specify payment of a sum certain in money.

5. 必须按要求或按一定时间点或点支付。

5. It must be payable on demand or by a point or points certain in time.

6. 必须支付给特定的人或持票人。

6. It must be payable to order of a specific person or to bearer.

流通票据在交易时,往往会有不正当的获取,卖给无辜的买家。如果HIDC 在不知道卖方无效所有权的情况下购买,则正当持有人(HIDC) 可以获得比卖方更多的权利。

When a negotiable paper is traded, people will often obtain it improperly and sell it to innocent buyers. A holder in due course (HIDC) can obtain more rights than the seller has if the HIDC buys it without knowledge of seller’s invalid ownership.

 

 

代理协议

AGENCY AGREEMENTS

代理是两方之间的法律关系,其中一个人为另一个人行事。虽然它不是 UCC 机构的一部分,但它是商法的重要组成部分。代理的法律关系可以通过四种方式发生:

Agency is the legal relationship between two parties in which one person acts for another. Although it is not part of the UCC agency, it is a key component of business law. The legal relationship of agency can occur four ways:

 

 

1.合同——以书面、口头或默示的合同形式,当事人订立代理协议,由本人对代理人的代理行为承担责任。

1. Contract—In a written, oral, or implied contract, the parties enter into an agency agreement, and the person is liable for the agent’s acts on his behalf.

2.认可——此人接受作为代理人为他或她行事的另一人的结果。该人负责代理人的活动。

2. Ratification—The person accepts the results of the other person, who is acting for him or her as an agent. The person is responsible for the agent’s activity.

3.禁止反言——这个人允许另一个人充当他的代理人,并允许其他人相信这种关系存在。当另一方基于代理关系为该代理人执行某些行为时,就会产生责任。

3. Estoppel—The person allows another to act as his agent and allows others to believe that this relationship exists. Liability arises when another party performs some act for that agent based on the agency relationship.

4.必要性——如果处于特殊情况的人无法采取行动,而善意的人帮助了另一个人,则存在代理协议。

4. Necessity—If a person in a special situation cannot act and someone in good faith helps another, an agency agreement exists.

 

 

破产法

BANKRUPTCY LAW

没有债务人的监狱了。破产法为个人和企业提供了一种重新开始或以更优惠的条件安排付款的机制。

There are no debtors’ prisons anymore. The bankruptcy laws provide a mechanism for people and businesses to get a new start or to arrange payment on more favorable terms.

 

 

第 7 章——受托人清算企业的剩余资产以尽可能多地偿还债务。破产后,除赡养费、子女抚养费等特殊债务外,债务全部清偿。

Chapter 7—A trustee liquidates the remaining assets of a business to pay debts as best as possible. After bankruptcy, the debts, except for special debts such as alimony and child support, are discharged.

第 11 章——法院任命的官员批准了一项重组计划,以随着时间的推移偿还债务。个人或企业在重组后的债务负担下继续经营。从理论上讲,对债权人的付款不应少于根据第 7 章破产法应支付的金额。

Chapter 11—A court-appointed officer approves a restructuring plan to pay the debts over time. The person or business continues operating with the restructured debt load. The payments to creditors theoretically should not be less than they would have been under Chapter 7 bankruptcy.

第 13 章——这种形式的个人破产适用于有固定收入且无担保债务少于 100,000 美元和有担保债务少于 350,000 美元的个人。债务人向法院提交最长可达五年的付款计划。

Chapter 13—This form of personal bankruptcy is available to individuals with regular income and less than $100,000 of unsecured debts and less than $350,000 of secured debts. The debtor submits a payment plan to the court that can last a maximum of five years.

 

 

统一商业法典 (UCC) 第 9 条:担保交易

UNIFORM COMMERCIAL CODE (UCC) ARTICLE 9: SECURED TRANSACTIONS

一套规则涵盖了债权人保护其个人财产和固定装置的利益免受其他第三方索赔的行为。这些受保护的权利称为担保权益。

A body of rules covers the acts of creditors to protect their interest in personal property and fixtures from other third-party claims. Those protected rights are called security interests.

如果借款人将抵押品交给债权人保管,则债权人可以获得担保权益。将物品带到当铺是质押抵押品的一个很好的例子。

A creditor can have a secured interest if a borrower pledges collateral to the creditor by giving it to him or her for safekeeping. Taking an item to a pawnshop is a good example of pledging collateral.

在没有实际持有财产(如珠宝)的情况下,债权人财产与针对第三方索赔的完善的担保权益联系起来。债权人可以通过两种方式完善其利益:

In the absence of actually holding the property, such as jewelry, the creditor attaches the property with a perfected security interest against third-party claims. The creditor can perfect his or her interest in two ways:

 

 

1.附件——在此过程中,债权人获得一份已签署的描述债务和财产的书面协议。债务人必须已收到担保权益的价值,并且债务人对该财产拥有合法权利。

1. Attachment—In this process, the creditor obtains a signed written agreement describing the debt and the property. The debtor must have received value for the security interest and the debtor has legal rights to the property.

2.提交财务报表——可以通过提交由债务人和债权人签署的财务报表来担保担保权益。该声明必须提交给在财产存在或债务人居住的州被认为有效的适当的州、县或地方当局。银行通常会提交 UCC 文件,以保护其在未偿贷款抵押品中的利益。该文件是一份公共记录,可以让其他人注意到该财产已被附加。

2. Filing a Financial Statement—A security interest can be secured by filing a financial statement signed by the debtor and creditor. The statement must be filed with the appropriate state, county, or local authority considered valid in the state where the property exists or where the debtor lives. Banks usually make a UCC filing to protect their interests in the collateral for loans outstanding. The filing is a public record that puts others on notice that the property is attached.

一种特殊类型的担保权益是购买货币担保权益 (PMSI)。在这些交易中,出售的消费品(如汽车、家具或其他家居用品)是卖方为购买提供贷款的抵押品。在这些情况下,无需备案。

A special type of security interest is a purchase money security interest (PMSI). In these transactions, the consumer goods sold (such as cars, furniture, or other household goods) are the collateral for the loans the seller makes to finance the purchase. In these cases, no filing is necessary.

当债权人不付款或不履行合同义务时,就会发生违约。当财产被法院没收以清偿债务时,索赔的优先权决定了谁对财产拥有权利。首先完善其财产权益的一方享有优先于其他债权人的权利。

Default occurs when a creditor does not pay or perform a contractual obligation. When property is seized by the courts to satisfy debts, a priority of claims governs who has rights to the property. The party that is first to perfect its interest in a property has priority over other creditors.

 

 

企业需要了解的几项行为

SEVERAL ACTS BUSINESSPEOPLE NEED TO KNOW ABOUT

联邦贸易委员会法——联邦贸易委员会 (FTC) 致力于禁止不公平和欺骗性的商业行为。FTC 在规范广告声明和产品标签方面尤为活跃。

Federal Trade Commission Act—The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) works to prohibit unfair and deceptive business practices. The FTC is especially active in regulating advertising claims and product labeling.

谢尔曼反托拉斯法——该法管辖那些“实际上”限制贸易的做法。禁止价格垄断、行业限产操纵价格、划分地域限制贸易、故意排挤行业、厂商搭售等。(搭售关系是指企业根据合同有义务从特定来源购买产品,排除其他来源。)

Sherman Antitrust Act—This act governs those practices that “actually” restrain trade. Price fixing, setting production quotas in an industry to manipulate prices, dividing a territory to limit trade, deliberately excluding businesses from an industry, and tying arrangements among vendors are all prohibited. (A tying relationship is one in which a business is contractually obligated to buy products from a particular source to the exclusion of others.)

克莱顿法案——该法案禁止“导致”竞争减少的垄断行为和合并。通过这种方式,法院不允许某些合并,因为它们“可能导致”竞争减少。例如,在特定行业的几家相关公司的董事会中有相同的人可能会导致竞争减少,并被《克莱顿法案》禁止。

Clayton Act—This act prohibits monopolistic practices and mergers that “lead” to lessened competition. In this way some mergers are not allowed by the courts because they “may lead” to lessened competition. For example, having the same people on the board of directors of several related companies in a particular industry could lead to lessened competition and be prohibited by the Clayton Act.

罗宾逊-帕特曼法案——该法案禁止基于制造和交付产品给客户的实际成本差异以外的因素对产品进行歧视性定价。

Robinson-Patman Act—This act prohibits the discriminatory pricing of a product based on factors other than actual cost differences in making and delivering the product to the customer.

 

 

简而言之,我们已经涵盖了商学院教授的典型商业法课程的简短笔记。如果需要,请务必寻求律师建议,但至少现在您“可以边走边谈”。

In a nutshell, we’ve covered the abbreviated body of notes from a typical business law course taught at business school. Do seek the advice of an attorney if you need it, but at least now you “can walk their walk and talk their talk.”

 

 

一分钟 MBA 商务写作课程

THE ONE-MINUTE MBA BUSINESS WRITING COURSE

1. 明确表达你的目的,并尽可能接近第一句话。不要浪费读者的时间。写任何备忘录都有明确的目的。

1. Present your purpose explicitly and as close to the first sentence as possible. Don’t waste readers’ time. Have a clear purpose for writing any memo.

2. 保持你的语气个性化、平易近人和尊重他人。写得好像接收者和你坐在一起。不要使用过多的技术术语或试图用你的词汇给别人留下深刻印象。不要在生气或沮丧时写信:即使您改变主意,备忘录也不会消失。除非绝对必要并且您掌握了所有事实,否则不要责怪某人或对公司中的某人发表任何负面评论。

2. Keep your tone personal, accessible, and respectful. Write as if the receiver were sitting with you. Do not use too much technical jargon or try to impress others with your vocabulary. Do not write while you are either angry or upset: the memo will not go away if you have a change of heart. Do not blame someone or write anything negative about someone in your company unless absolutely necessary and you have all the facts.

3.尽可能使用主动语态,不要使用被动语态。

3. Use the active voice, not the passive voice if at all possible.

活跃:Steve Silbiger 撰写了这本书。

Active: Steve Silbiger wrote this book.

被动:这本书是史蒂夫西尔比格写的。

Passive: This book was written by Steve Silbiger.

4. 去掉多余的词、事实和长句。使用标题来分解不同的想法以消除过渡段落。尽量将备忘录控制在一页纸上。可以附加其他信息。

4. Eliminate extra words, facts, and long sentences. Use headings to break up different thoughts to eliminate transitional paragraphs. Try to keep your memo to one page. Additional information can be attached.

5. 在发送备忘录之前使用“拼写和语法”检查两次。在发送之前阅读最终草稿。

5. Use “spell and grammar” check twice before you send a memo. Read the final draft before you send it.

 

 

十分钟房地产投资者

THE TEN-MINUTE REAL ESTATE INVESTOR

由于世界上最富有的人的财富中有很大一部分是投资于房地产而创造的,因此每个 MBA 都应该了解房地产的基础知识。房地产投资的目的是通过利用您的初始投资、利用政府税收优惠和选择被低估的优秀房产来创造财富。

Since a great proportion of the wealth of the world’s richest people was created investing in real estate, every MBA should know the basics of real estate. The object of real estate investing is to create wealth by leveraging your initial investment, taking advantage of government tax benefits, and selecting excellent undervalued properties.

现金流是房地产投资的关键要素。现金流使您能够支付账单并支付自己的费用。现金流量是通过从您收取的租金中减去抵押贷款付款和其他运营费用来计算的。有了现金流,您可以维持和增加您的财产组合并支付自己的费用。对于住宅物业,租赁是一份简单的按月付款合同。商业地产租赁有两种类型。在总租赁中,租户支付租金,业主支付除水电费以外的所有运营费用。在三重净租赁中,承租人支付租金、税款、保险、水电费和维护费用。

Cash flow is the critical element in real estate investing. Cash flow allows you to pay the bills and pay yourself. Cash flow is calculated by subtracting the mortgage payment and other operating expenses from the rent you collect. With the cash flow you can maintain and increase your property portfolio and pay yourself. For a residential property the lease is a simple monthly payment contract. Commercial property leases come in two types. In a gross lease the tenant pays the rent and the owner pays all operating expenses other than utilities. In a triple net lease, the tenant pays the rent, taxes, insurance, utilities, and maintenance.

对于租赁付款,存在三种类型的运营费用。运营费用有固定部分、可变部分和计划部分。固定费用包括税金和保险,通常每年或每季度支付大笔费用。可变费用包括不由租户承担的公用事业费用、维修、维护以及租户之间空置的准备金。此外,计划支出是指使用寿命较长的支出,例如新屋顶、熔炉或外墙板或油漆。

With the lease payments there are three types of operating expenses. Operating expenses have a fixed, a variable, and a planned portion. Fixed expenses include taxes and insurance, which are often paid in large payments annually or quarterly. Variable expenses include utility payments not assumed by the tenant, repairs, maintenance, and a provision for vacancies between tenants. In addition, planned expenses are those with a longer useful life, such as a new roof, furnace, or exterior siding or painting.

您的投资利润的很大一部分来自减少租房者支付的抵押贷款本金。随着贷款余额的支付,您的资产会随着时间的推移而增加,即使房产的价值保持不变。

A large part of your investment profit is from the reduction of mortgage principal paid for by the renters. As the balance of the loan is paid, your equity increases as time passes, even if the property’s value remains the same.

正如金融章节所讨论的,杠杆增加了您的投资回报。这是为数不多的普通人可以从事高杠杆交易的交易之一。首付 5% 的抵押贷款的杠杆率为 20:1。下跌 20% 时,您的收益将增加五倍。这就是为什么可以通过相对较小的投资获得较大回报的原因。随着财产价值的增加,您可以借入股权并投资更多财产或拿现金。在物价上涨的时代,创造财富。在衰退的市场中,投资可能会化为乌有。然而,房地产比生物技术股票更耐用。除非财产存在极端的环境问题,否则一个人的破产将为另一个投资者的财富奠定基础。

As discussed in the finance chapter, leverage increases the return on your investment. This is one of the few transactions in which the average person can be engaged in very leveraged transactions. Mortgages with 5 percent down are leveraged at a twenty-to-one ratio. At 20 percent down, your gains are leveraged by a factor of five. That is why large returns are possible on a relatively small investment. As a property increases in value, you can borrow against the equity and invest in more properties or take cash. In an era of rising property values, fortunes are created. In declining markets, investments can be wiped out. However, real estate is far more durable than a biotechnology stock. Unless the property has an extreme environmental problem, one person’s bust lays the groundwork for another investor’s fortune.

财产价值的升值来自通货膨胀、市场供求关系以及财产的其他用途机会。如果住宅物业具有商业可能性,它就会变得更有价值。这被称为财产的“最高和最佳用途”。房地产投资是一项本地业务。价格因城市、街区和街区而异。如果您认为投资的价值在于修复房产,那么请对所需的修复进行合格的评估。

Appreciation in property values come from inflation, supply and demand in the market, and the opportunities for other uses for the property. If a residential property has commercial possibilities, it can become more valuable. That is called the property’s “highest and best use.” Real estate investing is a local business. Prices differ greatly by city, neighborhood, and block. If you think that the value of the investment lies in fixing up the property, then get competent appraisals of the fixes required.

出于税收目的,贷款利息的可扣除性是为所有业主提供的税收庇护所,可以补贴您的购买。与不可抵扣的信用卡利息相反,政府通过降低借贷的税后成本来帮助您。美国政府也有来自住房和城市发展部 (HUD)、联邦住房管理局 (FHA) 和退伍军人管理局 (VA) 的计划,可以帮助您获得购买房产所需的资金。

The deductibility of loan interest for tax purposes is a tax shelter provided to all property owners that subsidizes your purchase. As opposed to nondeductible credit-card interest, the government helps you by lowering your after-tax cost of borrowing. The U.S. government also has programs from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), Federal Housing Administration (FHA), and the Veterans Administration (VA) that can help you obtain the financing required to buy properties.

税收折旧是政府通过减税补贴您购买的另一种方式。美国房产的税收折旧为住宅房产 27.5 年,非住宅房产 39 年。土地的价值必须从被折旧的财产的成本中减去。检查您的财产税单以了解结构的评估价值和总评估。使用该比率乘以您的购买价格来估算您投资的应折旧部分。

Tax depreciation is another way the government subsidizes your purchase with a tax deduction. Tax depreciation for U.S. properties is 27.5 years for residential properties and 39 years for nonresidential. The value of the land must be subtracted from the cost of the property being depreciated. Check your property tax bill for the assessed value of the structure and the total assessment. Use that ratio to multiply by your purchase price to estimate the depreciable portion of your investment.

房地产交易中实现的利润可以转入购买新的房产而无需对利润征税。它是一种独特的资产。在 IRS 1031 延税交换中,您可以像将个人退休账户的利润转入另一个 IRA 账户一样,将您的资产转入另一个账户。在这种情况下,您的房地产投资可以在没有很大风险的情况下创造可观的储备金。在这些交易中,您必须将全部收益转入“同类”财产,并且不得从转仓交易中取出任何现金、债务减免或其他有价值的东西。

Profits realized in real estate transactions can be rolled over into new property purchases without a tax on the profits. It’s a unique asset in that way. In an IRS 1031 tax-deferred exchange, you are able to roll over your equity much the way you roll over the profits of an individual retirement account into another IRA account. In this case your real estate investing can create a considerable nest egg without a great deal of risk. In these exchanges you must roll the entire proceeds into “like-kind” property and not take any cash, debt relief, or other things of value out of the rollover transaction.

有几种评估属性的方法。资本化率法是一种对投资性房地产进行估值的简单方法。财产的价值等于财产的净收入(租金减去运营费用)除以资本化率。资本化率是投资者根据现行利率、升值和租金风险对其投资做出的预期。2011 年 8% 的资本化(上限)率是一个共同目标。对于净收入为 10,000 美元的财产,使用此方法估价为 125,000 美元。当然,如果可以进行改善以提高净收入,那么该物业在新业主的管理下可能会更有价值。

There are several ways to evaluate properties. The capitalization rate method is a simple way to value an investment property. The value of the property equals the net income from the property (rent less operating expenses) divided by a capitalization rate. The capitalization rate is what investors expect to make on their investment based on the prevailing interest rates, appreciation, and the riskiness of the rents. A capitalization (cap) rate in 2011 of 8 percent was a common goal. In the case of property that has a net income of $10,000, it would be valued at $125,000 using this method. Of course if improvements can be made to improve the net income, the property may be more valuable under the new owner’s management.

另一种估值是使用毛租金乘数的缩略图方法,但它充满了不准确之处。最准确的估值方法是完成对现金流和预期升值的完整 NPV 分析,按照财务章节中解释的补偿您的所有权风险的折现率进行贴现。此外,分析还应包括一些关键变量的变化分析,以测试预测的稳健性。

Another valuation is a thumbnail method of using a gross rent multiplier, but it is fraught with inaccuracies. The most accurate valuation method is to complete a full NPV analysis of the cash flows and expected appreciation, discounted at a rate that compensates you for the risk of ownership as explained in the finance chapter. Also the analysis should include some variation analysis of key variables to test the robustness of the projections.

投资融资可以采用传统的银行贷款、政府贷款、抵押贷款或卖方融资的形式。

Financing the investment can take the form of a conventional bank loan, government loan, mortgage, or seller financing.

房地产成功计划分为五个部分:

The plan for real estate success is summarized in a five-part plan:

 

 

1. 了解房地产是一种投资。

1. Learn about real estate as an investment.

2. 研究您所在地区的房产。

2. Research properties in your area.

3. 计划如何投资你的钱。

3. Plan how to invest your money.

4.按照您的计划进行投资。

4. Invest according to your plan.

5. 管理您的投资以实现您的目标。

5. Manage your investment to meet your goals.

下面的工作表可以帮助您计算预期房地产投资的回报。

The worksheet below can help you calculate the return on a prospective real estate investment.

财产分析工作表

PROPERTY ANALYSIS WORKSHEET

图片

 

 

十分钟领导力教练

THE TEN-MINUTE LEADERSHIP COACH

MBA 教育的最新领域之一是领导力。个人领导力教练在企业高管中风靡一时,他们的建议每小时要花费数百美元。我在第 4 章“组织行为”中讨论了领导力理论,但许多 MBA 课程开设了领导力课程,以便他们的学生自己成为领导者,并在未来成为学校的大捐助者。

One of the newest areas for MBA education is leadership. Personal leadership coaches are the rage for corporate executives, and they cost hundreds of dollars an hour for their advice. I discussed the theories of leadership in chapter 4, “Organizational Behavior,” but many MBA programs have created leadership courses so that their students can be leaders themselves and, down the road, become large donors to their school.

成为一名有效的领导者需要自信地做出决定、激励他人并为自己的行为承担责任。简而言之,要成为有效的领导者,您必须克服恐惧和焦虑。它超越了攀登绳索的周末。企业领导者的大部分恐惧和焦虑都是因为失去控制。由此产生的其他恐惧包括对发疯的常见恐惧、对在他人面前出丑的恐惧以及对失败的恐惧。你在自己内心制造恐惧,只有你才能让自己平静下来才能有效。“如果你知道你可以处理遇到的任何事情,你可能会害怕什么?” 因此,“要减少恐惧,你所要做的就是培养对自己处理任何事情的能力的信任。” 这种智慧来自 Susan Jeffers 博士,感到害怕但依旧去做。“无论发生什么事,在任何情况下,我都能应付。” 但是真正可怕的事情呢?你可能会经历无法控制的事件,但如果你尽力而为,那么你就不能再对自己要求更多了。

Being an effective leader involves having the self-confidence to make decisions, motivating others, and assuming responsibility for your actions. In a nutshell, to become an effective leader you have to overcome your fears and anxieties. It goes beyond a weekend of climbing ropes. Most of the fear and anxiety of business leaders is over losing control. Other fears that stem from this include the common fear of going insane, fear of embarrassing yourself in front of others, and fear of failure. You create fear within yourself, and only you can calm yourself to be effective. “If you knew that you could handle anything that came your way, what would you possibly have to fear?” Therefore “all you have to do to diminish your fear is develop the trust in your ability to handle whatever comes your way.” This wisdom comes from Susan Jeffers, Ph.D., the author of Feel the Fear and Do It Anyway. “Whatever happens to me, given any situation, I can handle it.” But what about really horrible things? You may experience uncontrollable events, but if you do your best, then you cannot ask for any more of yourself.

许多事情会在你内在制造恐惧。露辛达·巴塞特 (Lucinda Basset) 的《从恐慌到权力》( From Panic to Power )指出您的家庭和成长经历是主要原因。

Many things create the fear within you. Lucinda Basset’s From Panic to Power pinpoints your family and upbringing as the primary causes.

 

 

  • 你可能有一个严格的教养,通过恐惧和内疚来控制你。
  • You may have had a strict upbringing that controlled you through fear and guilt.
  • 你的家人不会轻易表达情绪,也不会轻易给你表扬或认可。
  • Your family did not easily express emotions and did not easily give you praise or approval.
  • 您的父母可能对您抱有很高的期望,而您可能无法满足。
  • Your parents may have had high expectations for you that you could not possibly meet.
  • 您可能有反应过度的家庭成员,他们在您的家里营造了一个消极的紧张环境。
  • You may have overreacting family members who created a negative environment of nervousness in your house.
  • 您可能失去了一位家庭成员,或者有一位因疾病或毒瘾而丧失行为能力的人。
  • You may have lost a family member or had one incapacitated by disease or addiction.

是的,这听起来很可怕,但是大多数家庭,包括我的家庭,都具有形成我们的个性、习惯和性情的列表中的元素。他们导致人们成为完美主义者、内疚、强迫症、神经质、敏感、反应过度、过度关心他人的意见,并且显然一直处于控制之中。这些相同的特质中有许多驱使你在学生和商人中取得成功,但在某种程度上,它们阻碍了你成为一名伟大的领导者。

It sounds horrible, yes, but most families, mine included, have elements from the list that have formed our personalities, habits, and dispositions. They lead people to be perfectionist, guilty, obsessive, nervous, sensitive, overreacting, overly concerned about the opinions of others, and apparently in control all the time. Many of these same traits have driven you to be successful as a student and as a businessperson, but at a point, they hold you back from being a great leader.

改进的第一步是认识到你有这些恐惧并且可以克服它们。当你有这种失去控制的感觉时,这是基本的核心恐惧,你就会接受它。在大多数专业情况下,焦虑是由外部来源造成的。这会产生一种内在的焦虑,例如紧张或额头出汗。你如何反应是你的选择。不要与焦虑作斗争,理解它。

The first step of improvement is to recognize that you have these fears and can conquer them. When you have this feeling of a loss of control, which is the basic core fear, you accept it. The anxiety is created by an external source in most professional situations. That creates an internal anxiety, such as nervousness or a sweaty brow. It is your choice how you react. Don’t fight the anxiety, understand it.

当你处理外部事件时,你的思想往往会对真实情况产生认知扭曲,从而导致你不必要的焦虑。正如医学博士大卫·伯恩斯 (David Burns) 在Feeling Good中所解释的那样,需要提防的十类有毒认知扭曲是:

When you deal with external events, your mind tends to create cognitive distortions of the real situation causing you needless anxiety. As explained by David Burns, M.D., in Feeling Good, the ten categories of these poisonous cognitive distortions to watch out for are:

 

 

1.全有或全无的思考:不完美就是失败。

1. All-or-nothing thinking: If it is not perfect, it is a failure.

2. 过度概括:单一的负面事件是一种永无止境的失败模式。

2. Overgeneralization: A single negative event is a never-ending pattern of defeat.

3. 心理过滤:过滤掉所有的积极因素,专注于消极因素。

3. Mental filter: Filter out the entire positive and concentrate on the negative.

4.取消积极的资格:拒绝积极的,因为它不算数,无论如何都保持消极的信念。

4. Disqualify the positive: Reject positive as it does not count and maintain negative beliefs regardless.

5. 草率下结论:预测人们的负面反应和负面后果。

5. Jumping to conclusions: Anticipating negative reactions from people and negative consequences.

6. 放大或最小化:夸大负面事件的重要性或最小化正面事件的重要性。

6. Magnification or minimization: Exaggerate the importance of a negative event or minimize the importance of a positive one.

7.情绪推理:你的负面情绪反映了你周围真实世界的现实。

7. Emotional reasoning: Your negative emotions reflect the reality of the real world around you.

8. 应该陈述:你用“应该”和“不应该”来激励自己,就好像你需要被鞭打和惩罚才能做某事一样。这些必须和应该做的事情的后果是内疚。

8. Should statements: You motivate yourself with shoulds and shouldn’ts as if you need to be whipped and punished to do something. The consequence of these musts and ought tos is guilt.

9. 贴标签和贴错标签:消极地给自己贴上失败者的标签,或者给别人贴上白痴的标签。

9. Labeling and mislabeling: Negatively label yourself a loser or others as idiots.

10. 个性化:你是造成负面外部事件的原因,而你对此并不负责。这会导致内疚。

10. Personalization: You are the cause of negative external events that you are not responsible for. This causes guilt.

当有压力时,深呼吸并使用“积极的内心对话”来克服它。积极的想法会产生积极的感受。消极思维是一种可以改掉的坏习惯。. . 与实践。训练你头脑中的噪音,杰弗斯称之为“话匣子”,是你的关键。你可以选择让这个声音不断地责备你,用无数的假设场景怀疑你的决定,并且后悔我应该有的。或者,你可以选择让内心善意的声音告诉你,“你是一个有能力、有才华的人,如果事情不顺利,你可以处理。你无法控制世界,但你可以控制你对它的反应,并在未来做出更好的决定。”

When stressed, take a few breaths and use a “positive inner dialogue” to get over it. Positive thoughts create positive feelings. Negative thinking is a bad habit that you can break . . . with practice. Training the noise in your head, “the chatterbox” as Jeffers calls it, is your key. You can choose to have this voice constantly berating you, doubting your decisions with countless what if scenarios and regretful I should haves. Alternatively, you can choose to have a kind internal voice tell you, “You are a capable and talented person, and if things don’t work out, you can handle it. You can’t control the world, but you can control how you react to it and learn along the way to make better decisions in the future.”

杰弗斯建议,当你做出决定时,看看你能得到什么,而不是你能失去什么。做好功课,确保你掌握了所有事实,可以做出现实而明智的决定,确定你的优先事项,相信你的直觉并放松心情。您做出的任何决定都不会导致核浩劫。每个人都在安然、世通和伯尼麦道夫的庞氏骗局的崩溃中幸存下来。玛莎·斯图尔特 (Martha Stewart) 入狱后康复了。

Jeffers suggests that when you make a decision, look at what you can gain, not what you can lose. Do your homework to make sure you have all your facts to make a realistic and informed decision, establish your priorities, and trust your intuition and lighten up. Any decision that you make will not result in nuclear holocaust. Everyone survived the collapses of Enron, WorldCom, and Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme. Martha Stewart went to jail and she recovered.

做出决定后,不要把自己嫁给你认为“应该”的结果:扔掉那张照片。如果事情没有完美解决,承担责任并纠正这种情况。避免浪费时间试图“保护”您所做决定的正当性。你无法改变过去:你只能影响未来。感到内疚并不是一台高效的跑步机。原谅他人和自己,并以解决方案为导向。

After making a decision, do not wed yourself to what you thought “should be” the outcome: throw away that picture. If things do not work out perfectly, accept responsibility and correct the situation. Avoid wasting your time trying to “protect” the righteousness of the decision that you made. You cannot change the past: you can only affect the future. Feeling guilty is not a productive treadmill to run on. Forgive others and yourself and be solution-oriented.

如果你有消极的想法,Basset 建议你需要认清这些想法的本质,并在此时举起“停止标志”。问问自己这些想法是否真实、现实、理性和合理。用你内心积极的声音来看待事情,并向自己保证你可以处理它,让自己感到积极。积极的自我对话比负面谈话的坏习惯更好。在积极而强大的精神状态下,您可以通过行动解决问题而不是担心。如果你忙着做,你就不会忙着担心。“改变你的想法,改变你的心情。” 积极解决您的问题,或者花一些时间锻炼、听音乐或做其他积极的事情来分散注意力,这些都会为最初的焦虑提供时间。这使您能够成为一个更积极、更有成效的领导者来迎接下一个挑战。

If you are having negative thoughts, Basset suggests that you need to recognize the thoughts for what they are and raise the “stop sign” right there. Ask yourself if the thoughts are true, realistic, rational, and reasonable. Use your positive internal voice to put things into perspective and assure yourself that you can handle it, and make yourself feel positive. Positive self-talk is better than a bad habit of negative talk. In a positive and powerful mental state, you solve the problem by doing, not worrying. If you are busy doing, you are not busy worrying. “Change your mind and change your mood.” The distraction of being active solving your problem, or perhaps taking some time out to exercise, listen to some music, or do something else positive, will provide time for the initial anxiety to pass. That enables you to become a more positive and productive leader for your next challenge.

许多其他专家也有类似的建议。斯宾塞·约翰逊 (Spencer Johnson) 的《现在》( The Present ) 是一本很棒的书,讲述了一位老人关于通过专注于“现在”的行动而变得快乐的明智建议。“活在当下,专注于当下。用你的目的来回应对你来说重要的事情。吸取过去的教训。从中学到有价值的东西,在当下做一些不一样的事情。计划未来,看看美好的未来会是什么样子,并制定计划帮助它实现。现在就把你的计划付诸行动。”

Many other experts have similar advice. Spencer Johnson’s The Present is a great book about an old man’s sage advice about becoming happy as a result of focusing on action in “the present.” “Be in the present, focus on what is right now. Use your purpose to respond to what is important to you. Learn from the past. Learn something valuable from it and do something different in the present. Plan for the future and see what a wonderful future would look like and make plans to help it happen. Put your plan into action in the present.”

在约翰逊的《谁动了我的奶酪?他提倡接受变化作为生活的一部分,积极预测变化并应对变化。接受变化并应对变化比因恐惧和焦虑而瘫痪更有成效,对您的幸福也更好。

In Johnson’s Who Moved My Cheese?, with examples of mice and little people caught in a maze, he focused on taking action in the face of a changing world. He advocated accepting change as part of life, proactively anticipating change, and dealing with it. Accepting change and dealing with it is more productive and better for your well-being than being paralyzed by fear and anxiety.

领导力教练会触及实际问题以及重大的人生规划问题。领导力教练建议的工具包括通过创建每日待办事项列表来保持条理和优先级。这些列表使您能够在一天中检查事情并感到富有成效,即使您并没有解决公司的所有问题。不要过度安排你的一天;这是一种避免的方法。为了有效地建立网络并保持联系,您必须保持更新的联系人列表。如果您在条目中包含重要的关键字,例如与您在奥古斯塔高尔夫经典赛中遇到的人一起参加大师赛,那么当您不记得他们的名字时,您可以更有效地找到他们。

Leadership coaches touch on the practical as well as the big life-planning issues. Tools that leadership coaches suggest include keeping organized and prioritized by creating daily to-do lists. The lists enable you to check things off during the day and feel productive, even though you are not solving every issue at your company. Don’t overschedule your day; it is a method of avoidance. To effectively network and keep connected, you must keep an updated contact list. If you include significant keywords with your entries, such as Masters with someone whom you met at the Augusta golf classic, you can more effectively find people when you don’t remember their names.

在重大的生活问题上,教练会帮助你为自己制定一套详细的目标:公司、职业、个人、职业关系、家庭关系和社区。然后你将定期与教练一起回顾它,以确保你在正轨上并且你的行为符合你的目标。史蒂芬·柯维的 《高效能人士的七个习惯》告诉我们“承担责任,下定决心确定什么对您重要,并以此为生。先寻求理解,再寻求被理解。” 他在 2004 年加入的第八个习惯是“找到你的声音、你的呼唤、你灵魂的密码,并激励他人找到他们的。”

On the big life issues, coaches will help you create a detailed set of goals for yourself: company, professional, personal, professional relationships, family relationships and community. Then you will review it periodically with the coach to make sure that you are on track and that your actions are in line with your goals. Stephen Covey’s 7 Habits of Highly Effective People tells us to “take responsibility, make your mind up about what is important to you, and live by it. Seek first to understand, then to be understood.” His eighth habit, added in 2004, was “find your voice, your calling, your soul’s code, and inspire others to find theirs.”

正如您想象的那样,领导力教练也将自己视为生活教练,并建议定期锻炼、健康饮食、不吸烟、减少咖啡因摄入、冥想和保持适当的睡眠。他们建议进行360 度评估,以从您的上级、同事和您的直接下属那里获得自我意识。教练可能会提供其他建议:每天吃一块水果,你就不太可能吃垃圾食品。多笑; 你的微笑让别人快乐,这反过来又让你快乐。不接受电视新闻的世界观;这是一种扭曲的消极观点。回报; 为他人做好事对你同样有益。其中许多因素会影响您的总体压力和焦虑水平,因此会影响您作为企业领导者的工作效率。

Leadership coaches, as you can imagine, see themselves as life coaches as well and recommend regular exercise, healthy diets, not smoking, cutting back on caffeine, meditation, and getting proper sleep. They recommend a 360-degree evaluation to gain self-awareness from your superiors, your colleagues, and your direct reports. Coaches may offer other advice: Eat a piece a fruit each day and you are less likely to eat junk food. Smile more; your smile makes other people happy, which in turn makes you happy. Don’t accept the TV news’ picture of the world; it is a distorted, negative view. Give back; doing good for others is just as good for you. Many of these factors affect your general level of stress and anxiety and, therefore, affect your productivity as a business leader.

 

 

十分钟理财规划师

THE TEN-MINUTE FINANCIAL PLANNER

商学院希望他们的学生尽可能成功地实现他们的个人财务目标。几所顶尖学校提供财务规划和财务管理课程。对于 MBA 学生来说,没有什么科目比他们的个人财富创造更重要。成为百万富翁的关键很简单。由于 MBA 的平均薪水使他成为收入最高的 10%,因此所需要的只是纪律和一些计划。

Business schools want their students to be as successful as possible in meeting their personal financial goals. Several top schools offer courses on financial planning and financial management. No subject is more important to MBA students than their personal wealth creation. The keys to becoming a millionaire are straightforward. Since the average MBA is earning a salary that puts him in the top 10 percent of earners, all it takes is discipline and some planning.

 

 

规则 1:先付钱给自己。自动保存至少 10% 的收入。

Rule 1: Pay Yourself First. Automatically save a minimum of 10 percent of your earnings.

最大化您的延税储蓄机会。充分利用所有可用的 401(k) 或 403(b) 计划。充分利用雇主匹配。利用山姆大叔的所有税收优惠。如果你处于 25% 的税率范围内,那么你实际上已经通过避税获得了 25% 的储蓄回报,而不是在收到支票后试图从支票中储蓄。如果你得到雇主匹配,你的钱就会翻倍。您在共同基金投资中赚取的收益是锦上添花。即使在互联网泡沫的鼎盛时期,也很难击败这些回报。重要的是,在从钱中扣除税款之前,您的投资会自动从您的支票中扣除。

Maximize your tax-deferred savings opportunities. Take full advantage of all 401(k) or 403(b) plans available. Take full advantage of employer matches. Take advantage of all the tax benefits from Uncle Sam. If you are in the 25 percent tax bracket, you are in essence already getting a 25 percent return on your savings by avoiding the taxes versus trying to save it from your check after you get it. If you get an employer match, you doubled your money. What you earn in a mutual fund investment is icing on the cake. It would be tough to beat those returns, even in the heady times of the Internet bubble. It is important that your investment is automatically taken from your check before taxes are taken from the money.

如果您的雇主没有可用的 401(k) 计划,您需要最大限度地利用其他延税储蓄选项。最大化可用的传统 IRA、Roth IRA 和简单 IRA。如果可能的话,从你的薪水或你自己的支票账户中自动进行系统性的投资。如果您有自雇收入,您可以延税节省更多的钱。创建个人 401(k) 或 SEP IRA。

If your employer does not have a 401(k) plan available, you need to maximize your other tax-deferred savings options. Maximize available Traditional IRAs, Roth IRAs, and Simple IRAs. Automatically invest with systematic payments from your paycheck or from your own checking account if possible. If you have self-employment income, you are able to save much more money tax-deferred. Create an Individual Person 401(k) or SEP IRA.

如果您遵循这个计划,即使收入适中,您也一定会在您的职业生涯中积累超过 100 万美元。

If you follow this plan, you are assured to amass more than a million dollars over your working career even with a moderate income.

 

 

规则 2:拥有自己的家。拥有你的家;如果您打算长期居住,请不要租房。租房不会为你积累任何财富,但它会为你的房东积累财富。与延税账户一样,联邦政府正在为您的房屋提供补贴。补贴是您的抵押贷款利息的税收减免。如果您的税率为 25%,则政府将支付您利息的 25%。在抵押贷款的头几年,大部分还款是利息,政府将支付您全部抵押贷款付款的 25%。这笔交易很难拒绝。

Rule 2: Own Your Home. Own your home; don’t rent if you plan on staying for an extended period of time. Renting a place does not build up any wealth for you, but it does for your landlord. As with the tax-deferred accounts, the federal government is subsidizing your home. The subsidy is your tax deduction for your mortgage interest. If you have a 25 percent tax rate, the government is paying 25 percent of your interest. In the first years of the mortgage, when most of the payment is for interest, the government will be paying 25 percent of your entire mortgage payment. That deal is hard to turn down.

如果您计划在家中多住几年,则可以选择 30 年和 15 年的抵押贷款。十五年期抵押贷款的利息较低,拥有房屋的时间只有一半,并迫使您以更高的月供来储蓄更多。30 年期的利率稍高,但还清时间要长一倍。从 30 年期抵押贷款的积极方面来看,您可以买得起更大的房子,这在价值上升的市场中可以让您有更多的财务杠杆。很少有投资可以让您拥有与房屋抵押贷款相同的杠杆作用。在首付款为 20% 的情况下,您可以用房地产投资控制房地产价值的五倍。

Thirty-year and fifteen-year mortgages are available if you plan to stay more than just a few years in a home. The fifteen-year mortgage has a lower interest payment, takes half as long to own your home, and forces you to save more with a higher monthly payment. The thirty-year has a little higher interest rate, but takes twice as long to pay off. On the positive side of thirty-year mortgage, you can afford a larger house, which in a market of rising values allows you more financial leverage. Few investments allow you to have the same amount of leverage as your home mortgage. In a 20 percent down-payment situation, you control five times the value of real estate with your real estate investment.

如果你想加速你的所有权和你的储蓄,设置每两周支付一次,每月额外支付本金,或者每年额外支付一个月的本金。如果你愿意,你可以在十年内完全拥有你的房子。确保购物以比较利率和费用。使用 bankrate.com。

If you want to accelerate your ownership and your savings, set up biweekly payments, make extra payments to principal each month, or make an extra month’s payment to principal each year. You could own your house totally in ten years if you wish. Make sure to shop to compare interest rates and fees. Use bankrate.com.

自己的出租物业。当您进一步支付房屋的款项时,您将积累可观的资产。您可以使用房屋净值为自己购买另一套房屋或购买出租物业。在这种情况下,租房者会为您存钱,因为他们还清了您对该房产的抵押贷款。有关房地产经济学的指导,请参阅“十分钟房地产投资者”。

Own rental property. When you are further along with the payments on your house, you will have built up considerable equity. You can use the equity in your home to buy another home for yourself or to buy a rental property. In that case the renters will be saving for you, as they pay off your mortgage on that property. See “The Ten-Minute Real Estate Investor” for guidance on the economics of real estate.

 

 

规则 3:创建应急基金和投资组合。每个人都需要应急基金。专家建议适当花费 3 到 6 个月的费用,但如果那能让你晚上睡得好,时间更长也可以。您需要先付钱给自己,以每月设定一定的金额来创建这个储备金,直到您达到目标。该帐户不会享受政府补贴的好处,因为它是在税收后从您的工资中扣除的。这笔钱应该是拿不到的。在 bankrate.com 购买最高的货币市场利率和 CD 利率,以确保您获得最优惠的价格。

Rule 3: Create an Emergency Fund and an Investment Portfolio. Everyone needs an emergency fund. Experts suggest three to six months expenses as appropriate, but longer is okay if that is what makes you sleep well at night. You need to pay yourself first to create this nest egg with a set amount each month until you reach your goal. This account will not have the benefit of a government subsidy because it comes out of your paycheck after taxes have been taken. The money should be inaccessible. Shop for the highest money-market rates and CD rates at bankrate.com to ensure you get the best deal.

创建应急基金后,您需要在持有长期投资的投资账户中投资相同数额或更多。此帐户可指定用于教育、创业和/或退休。

Once your emergency fund is created, you need to invest the same amount or more in an investment account holding longer-term investments. This account can be earmarked for education, to start a business, and or retirement.

 

 

规则 4:明智地投资。投资您的投资组合不是表达您的创造力的地方。选择由 Morningstar.com 和福布斯评定的长期共同基金赢家。跨资产类别(例如大型、中型和小型公司共同基金)以及跨投资风格(例如价值、混合和增长投资)的股票投资多样化。债券同样应该多样化,包括短期、中期和长期期限。另外,要选择费用低的基金。较低的支出与较高的回报高度相关。您还必须监控您的整个投资组合,而不仅仅是个人持股。使用 Morningstar.com 的投资组合跟踪器跟踪和分析您的整个投资组合。在 bankrate.com 购买 CD 和货币市场利率。

Rule 4: Invest Wisely. Investing your portfolio is not a place to express your creativity. Choose the long-term mutual fund winners as rated by Morningstar.com and Forbes. Diversify stock investments across asset classes such as large, mid-, and small-capitalization company mutual funds and across investment styles such as value, blend, and growth investing. Bonds should likewise be diversified, across short-, medium-, and long-term maturities. In addition, choose funds with low expenses. Lower expenses have been highly correlated with higher returns. You must also monitor your entire portfolio, not just individual holdings. Track and analyze your entire portfolio with Morningstar.com’s portfolio tracker. Shop for CD and money market rates at bankrate.com.

您可以选择拿出一部分储蓄来投资有风险的机会,但要有纪律,将其保留在您储备金的一小部分。

You may choose to take a portion of your savings to invest in risky opportunities, but be disciplined, keep it to a small portion of your nest egg.

 

 

规则 5:有选择地奢侈但普遍节俭。分类帐的费用方面与储蓄和投资方面一样重要。当然,你必须享受生活;生活不是彩排。但是你需要有选择性地花钱。为了满足你的热情,无论是高尔夫还是葡萄酒收藏,你可能需要有选择地奢侈,但对于不重要的事情,你需要谨慎节俭。

Rule 5: Be Selectively Extravagant but Pervasively Frugal. The expense side of the ledger can be just as important as the saving and investment side. Of course you must enjoy life; life is not a dress rehearsal. But you need to be selective about how you spend your money. To feed your passion, whatever it may be, golf or even wine collecting, you may need to be selectively extravagant, but for things that are not important, you need to be prudently frugal.

正如广泛报道的那样,在一生中,每天 5 美元的拿铁咖啡或香烟习惯可能会让您损失超过 100 万美元的退休储蓄。驾驶一辆价格适中的可靠汽车行驶十万英里,而不是频繁地换一辆昂贵的豪华汽车,可以避免许多汽车付款、高昂的折旧成本和利息费用。在您的一生中,该计划对您来说也价值一百万美元。

As widely reported, over a lifetime a $5-a-day caffe-latte or cigarette habit can cost you more than a million dollars of lost retirement saving. Driving a moderately priced reliable car for one hundred thousand miles instead of trading frequently for a pricey luxury car permits you to avoid many car payments, the steep cost of depreciation, and interest charges. This plan also is worth a million dollars to you over your lifetime.

另一个节省开支的领域涉及信用卡的使用。一些专家说你不应该使用它们,因为它在心理上将你的支出与实际使用现金区分开来。如果您确实选择使用信用卡,请使用提供现金优惠的信用卡,例如 Discover 的现金返还。不要逐月结余,因为利息费用远远超过您从其他投资中赚取的收入。

Another area for savings involves the use of credit cards. Some experts say that you should not use them because it psychologically divorces your spending from the actual use of cash. If you do choose to use your credit card, use one that provides a cash benefit such as cash-back from Discover. Do not roll over a balance from month to month, as the interest charges are far more than you can earn from your other investments.

图片

附录:

定量

分析表

Appendix:

Quantitative

Analysis Tables

图片

图片

正态分布表

TABLE OF THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

表中的每个数字都是正态密度曲线下位于平均值和距平均值的 Z 标准差单位之间的面积。

Each number in the table is the area under the normal density curve that lies between the mean and Z standard deviation units from the mean.

 

 

图片

MBA缩写词典

MBA Abbreviation Lexicon

缩写:ABC

Abbreviation: ABC

翻译:基于活动的成本核算

Translation: activity-based costing

主题: A

Subject: A

 

 

简称:AIDA

Abbreviation: AIDA

翻译:注意力/兴趣/欲望/行动

Translation: attention/interest/desire/action

主题: M

Subject: M

 

 

简称:BCG

Abbreviation: BCG

翻译:波士顿咨询集团

Translation: Boston Consulting Group

主题: S

Subject: S

 

 

缩写:CAPM

Abbreviation: CAPM

翻译:资本资产定价模型

Translation: capital asset pricing model

主题: F

Subject: F

 

 

缩写:CDF

Abbreviation: CDF

翻译:累积分布函数

Translation: cumulative distribution function

主题:

Subject: Q

 

 

简称:CDS

Abbreviation: CDS

翻译:信用违约互换

Translation: credit default swap

主题: F

Subject: F

 

 

缩写:COGS

Abbreviation: COGS

翻译:商品销售成本

Translation: cost of goods sold

主题: A

Subject: A

 

 

缩写:每千次展示费用

Abbreviation: CPM

翻译:关键路径调度法

Translation: critical path method of scheduling

主题: OP

Subject: OP

 

 

缩写:每千次展示费用

Abbreviation: CPM

翻译:千人成本

Translation: cost per thousand

主题: M

Subject: M

 

 

简称:客户关系管理

Abbreviation: CRM

翻译:客户关系管理

Translation: customer relationship management

主题: OP

Subject: OP

 

 

简称:EBIT

Abbreviation: EBIT

翻译:息税前收益

Translation: earnings before interest and taxes

主题: F

Subject: F

 

 

简称:EMV

Abbreviation: EMV

翻译:预期货币价值

Translation: expected monetary value

主题:

Subject: Q

 

 

缩写:EOQ

Abbreviation: EOQ

翻译:经济订货量

Translation: economic order quantity

主题: OP

Subject: OP

 

 

简称:EVA

Abbreviation: EVA

翻译:经济增加值

Translation: economic value added

主题: S

Subject: S

 

 

缩写:财务会计准则委员会

Abbreviation: FASB

翻译:财务会计准则委员会

Translation: Financial Accounting Standards Board

主题: A

Subject: A

 

 

缩写:先进先出

Abbreviation: FIFO

翻译:先进先出

Translation: first in first out

主题: A

Subject: A

 

 

缩写:FRICTO

Abbreviation: FRICTO

翻译:灵活性、风险、收入、控制、时机、其他

Translation: flexibility, risk, income, control, timing, other

主题: F

Subject: F

 

 

简称:FSI

Abbreviation: FSI

翻译:独立插入

Translation: freestanding insert

主题: M

Subject: M

 

 

缩写:公认会计原则

Abbreviation: GAAP

翻译:公认会计原则

Translation: generally accepted accounting principles

主题: A

Subject: A

 

 

简称:国内生产总值

Abbreviation: GDP

翻译:国内生产总值

Translation: gross domestic product

主题: E

Subject: E

 

 

缩写:国民生产总值

Abbreviation: GNP

翻译:国民生产总值

Translation: gross national product

主题: E

Subject: E

 

 

缩写:GRP

Abbreviation: GRP

翻译:总评分

Translation: gross rating points

主题: M

Subject: M

 

 

简称:IPO

Abbreviation: IPO

翻译:首次公开募股

Translation: initial public offering

主题: F

Subject: F

 

 

缩写:IRR

Abbreviation: IRR

翻译:内部收益率

Translation: internal rate of return

主题:

Subject: Q

 

 

缩写:IT

Abbreviation: IT

翻译:信息技术

Translation: information technology

主题: OP

Subject: OP

 

 

缩写:JIT

Abbreviation: JIT

翻译:及时库存

Translation: just-in-time inventory

主题: OP

Subject: OP

 

 

缩写:杠杆收购

Abbreviation: LBO

翻译:杠杆收购

Translation: leveraged buyout

主题: F

Subject: F

 

 

缩写:LCP

Abbreviation: LCP

翻译:低成本生产商

Translation: low-cost producer

主题: S

Subject: S

 

 

缩写:后进先出法

Abbreviation: LIFO

翻译:后进先出

Translation: last in first out

主题: A

Subject: A

 

 

简称:并购

Abbreviation: M&A

翻译:并购

Translation: mergers and acquisitions

主题: F

Subject: F

 

 

简称:MBO

Abbreviation: MBO

翻译:目标管理

Translation: management by objective

主题:产科

Subject: OB

 

 

缩写:MBWA

Abbreviation: MBWA

翻译:走动管理

Translation: management by walking around

主题:产科

Subject: OB

 

 

缩写:跨国公司

Abbreviation: MNC

翻译:跨国公司

Translation: multinational corporation

主题: S

Subject: S

 

 

简称:MRP

Abbreviation: MRP

翻译:物料需求计划

Translation: material requirements planning

主题: OP

Subject: OP

 

 

缩写:NNP

Abbreviation: NNP

翻译:国民生产净值

Translation: net national product

主题: E

Subject: E

 

 

缩写:净现值

Abbreviation: NPV

翻译:净现值

Translation: net present value

主题:

Subject: Q

 

 

简称:PE

Abbreviation: PE

翻译:市盈率

Translation: price-earnings ratio

主题: F

Subject: F

 

 

简称:PLC

Abbreviation: PLC

翻译:产品生命周期

Translation: product life cycle

主题: M

Subject: M

 

 

缩写:POP

Abbreviation: POP

翻译:购买点

Translation: point of purchase

主题: M

Subject: M

 

 

缩写:QWL

Abbreviation: QWL

翻译:工作生活质量

Translation: quality of work life

主题:产科

Subject: OB

 

 

缩写:RIF

Abbreviation: RIF

翻译:裁员(裁员)

Translation: reduction in force (layoff)

主题:产科

Subject: OB

 

 

简称:ROE

Abbreviation: ROE

翻译:股本回报率

Translation: return on equity

主题: A

Subject: A

 

 

简称:SBU

Abbreviation: SBU

翻译:战略业务部门

Translation: strategic business unit

主题: S

Subject: S

 

 

缩写:SEC

Abbreviation: SEC

翻译:证券交易委员会

Translation: Securities and Exchange Commission

主题: F

Subject: F

 

 

缩写:搜索引擎优化

Abbreviation: SEO

翻译:搜索引擎优化

Translation: Search Engine Optimization

主题: M

Subject: M

 

 

简称:SKU

Abbreviation: SKU

翻译:库存单位

Translation: stock keeping unit

主题: M

Subject: M

 

 

缩写:SMSA

Abbreviation: SMSA

翻译:标准都市统计区

Translation: Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area

主题: M

Subject: M

 

 

缩写:SOX

Abbreviation: SOX

翻译:萨班斯-奥克斯利法案

Translation: Sarbanes-Oxley Act

主题:外星人

Subject: ET

 

 

缩写:SPC

Abbreviation: SPC

翻译:统计过程控制

Translation: statistical process control

主题: OP

Subject: OP

 

 

缩写:SWOT

Abbreviation: SWOT

翻译:优势、劣势、机会、威胁

Translation: strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats

主题: M

Subject: M

 

 

缩写:TRP

Abbreviation: TRP

翻译:总评分

Translation: total rating points

主题: M

Subject: M

 

 

简称:全面质量管理

Abbreviation: TQM

翻译:全面质量管理

Translation: total quality management

主题: OP

Subject: OP

 

 

缩写:WACC

Abbreviation: WACC

翻译:加权平均资本成本

Translation: weighted average cost of capital

主题: F

Subject: F

 

 

简称:YTM

Abbreviation: YTM

翻译:到期收益率

Translation: yield to maturity

主题: F

Subject: F

主题关键词:A =会计;E =经济学;ET =道德;F =财务;M =营销;OB =组织行为;OP =运营;Q =定量分析;S =策略

SUBJECT KEY: A = Accounting; E = Economics; ET = Ethics; F = Finance; M = Marketing; OB = Organizational Behavior; OP = Operations; Q = Quantitative Analysis; S = Strategy

权限

Permissions

感谢您允许使用以下材料:

Grateful acknowledgment is made for permission to use material from the following:

 

 

第一天:营销

DAY 1: MARKETING

阿萨尔,亨利。 消费者行为与营销行动,第 4 版。波士顿:PWS-Kent 出版公司,1992,p. 100。

Assael, Henry. Consumer Behavior & Marketing Action, 4th ed. Boston: PWS-Kent Publishing Company, 1992, p. 100.

库勒姆,利奥。卡通片,“在会计工作中展示我的肌肉。”

Cullum, Leo. Cartoon, “Down in Accounting Flexing My Muscles.”

库勒姆,利奥。卡通,“我有信誉。”

Cullum, Leo. Cartoon, “I Have Credibility.”

Newton, Derek A. 销售队伍管理——文本和案例。版权所有© 1990 年,Richard D. Irwin, Inc.,第 7-9 页。

Newton, Derek A. Sales Force Management—Text and Cases. Copyright © 1990 by Richard D. Irwin, Inc., pp. 7–9.

 

 

第 2 天:伦理

DAY 2: ETHICS

库勒姆,利奥。卡通,“超出我的深度”。

Cullum, Leo. Cartoon, “Out of My Depth.”

弗里曼、R. 爱德华和丹尼尔 R. 吉尔伯特。 公司战略和道德规范的探索。版权所有 © 1988,第 24-41 页。经新泽西州恩格尔伍德悬崖 Prentice Hall 许可改编

Freeman, R. Edward, and Daniel R. Gilbert. Corporate Strategy and the Search for Ethics. Copyright © 1988, pp. 24–41. Adapted by permission of Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, N.J.

 

 

第 3 天:会计

DAY 3: ACCOUNTING

库勒姆,利奥。卡通,“腓尼基人是第 一批会计师。”

Cullum, Leo. Cartoon, “The Phoenicians Were the First Accountants.”

库勒姆,利奥。卡通片,“会计新人”。 《纽约客》,2002 年 3 月 18 日。纽约客杂志公司版权所有 © 2002。

Cullum, Leo. Cartoon, “New from Accounting.” The New Yorker, March 18, 2002. Copyright © 2002 by The New Yorker Magazine, Inc.

 

 

第 4 天:组织行为学

DAY 4: ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR

克劳森,詹姆斯。“组织结构”,达顿学校案例 UVA-OB-361,图 1-8,第 11-18 页。版权所有 © 1988 达顿商学院基金会,弗吉尼亚州夏洛茨维尔。

Clawson, James. “Organizational Structure,” Darden School Case UVA-OB-361, Figure 1–8, pp. 11–18. Copyright © 1988 by the Darden Graduate Business School Foundation, Charlottesville, Virginia.

克劳森,詹姆斯。“管理风格调查”,达顿学校案例 UVA-OB-358,图,p. 14. 版权所有 © 1988,达顿商学院基金会,弗吉尼亚州夏洛茨维尔。

Clawson, James. “Survey of Managerial Style,” Darden School Case UVA-OB-358, Figure, p. 14. Copyright © 1988 by the Darden Graduate Business School Foundation, Charlottesville, Virginia.

克劳森,詹姆斯。“系统理论和组织分析”,达顿学校案例 UVA-OB-214,图 1,p。9. 版权所有 © 1983 达顿商学院基金会,弗吉尼亚州夏洛茨维尔。

Clawson, James. “Systems Theory and Organizational Analysis,” Darden School Case UVA-OB-214, Figure 1, p. 9. Copyright © 1983 by the Darden Graduate Business School Foundation, Charlottesville, Virginia.

库勒姆,利奥。卡通,“你血管里的冰水”。

Cullum, Leo. Cartoon, “Ice Water in Your Veins.”

库勒姆,利奥。卡通片,“送你可爱的临别礼物”。

Cullum, Leo. Cartoon, “Lovely Parting Gifts for You.”

Gabarro、John J. 和 John P. Kotter。“管理你的老板。” 哈佛商业评论(1980 年 1 月/2 月),展览,“管理与老板的关系”,p. 99. 版权所有 © 1979 哈佛大学校长和院士;版权所有。经许可转载。

Gabarro, John J., and John P. Kotter. “Managing Your Boss.” Harvard Business Review (January/February 1980), Exhibit, “Managing the Relationship with Your Boss,” p. 99. Copyright © 1979 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College; all rights reserved. Reprinted by permission.

Greiner, Larry E. “随着组织的发展而演变和革命”。 哈佛商业评论(1972 年 7 月/8 月),Exhibit II,“增长的五个阶段”,p. 41. 版权所有 © 1972 哈佛大学校长和院士;版权所有。经许可转载。

Greiner, Larry E. “Evolution and Revolution as Organizations Grow.” Harvard Business Review (July/August 1972), Exhibit II, “The Five Phases of Growth,” p. 41. Copyright © 1972 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College; all rights reserved. Reprinted by permission.

“为什么人们会按照他们的方式行事,”达顿学校案例 UVA-OB-183,图 5,p。16. 版权所有 © 1986 达顿商学院基金会,弗吉尼亚州夏洛茨维尔。

“Why People Behave the Way They Do,” Darden School Case UVA-OB-183, Figure 5, p. 16. Copyright © 1986 by the Darden Graduate Business School Foundation, Charlottesville, Virginia.

Zierden, William E. “理解组织的框架”,达顿学校案例 UVA-OB-183,图 5,p。16. 版权所有 © 1986 达顿商学院基金会,弗吉尼亚州夏洛茨维尔。

Zierden, William E. “A Framework for Understanding Organizations,” Darden School Case UVA-OB-183, Figure 5, p. 16. Copyright © 1986 by the Darden Graduate Business School Foundation, Charlottesville, Virginia.

Zierden, William E. “工作设计简介”,达顿学校案例 UVA-OB-91R,图 1,p。2. 版权所有 © 1975,达顿商学院基金会,弗吉尼亚州夏洛茨维尔。

Zierden, William E. “Introduction to Job Design,” Darden School Case UVA-OB-91R, Figure 1, p. 2. Copyright © 1975 by the Darden Graduate Business School Foundation, Charlottesville, Virginia.

 

 

第五天:定量分析

DAY 5: QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS

库勒姆,利奥。卡通,“无意义的统计数据”。

Cullum, Leo. Cartoon, “Meaningless Statistics.”

Oksman、Warren 和 Sherwood C. Frey。“分析概率分布简介”,Case UVA-Q-205,第 5、6、14 页。 版权所有 © 1980 达顿商学院基金会,弗吉尼亚州夏洛茨维尔。

Oksman, Warren, and Sherwood C. Frey. “Introduction to Analytical Probability Distributions,” Case UVA-Q-205, pp. 5, 6, 14. Copyright © 1980 by the Darden Graduate Business School Foundation, Charlottesville, Virginia.

 

 

第 6 天:财务

DAY 6: FINANCE

“债务政策和价值简介”,案例 UVA-F-811,p. 1. 版权所有 © 1989,达顿商学院基金会,弗吉尼亚州夏洛茨维尔。

“An Introduction to Debt Policy and Value,” Case UVA-F-811, p. 1. Copyright © 1989 by the Darden Graduate Business School Foundation, Charlottesville, Virginia.

库勒姆,利奥。卡通片,“这不是收购。”

Cullum, Leo. Cartoon, “It’s Not a Takeover.”

库勒姆,利奥。卡通,“有限合伙人”。

Cullum, Leo. Cartoon, “Limited Partners.”

 

 

第 7 天:运营

DAY 7: OPERATIONS

库勒姆,利奥。卡通片,“我们被 700,000 蒲式耳困住了。”

Cullum, Leo. Cartoon, “We’re Stuck with 700,000 Bushels.”

 

 

第八天:经济学

DAY 8: ECONOMICS

库勒姆,利奥。卡通片,“我不知道这是什么意思。”

Cullum, Leo. Cartoon, “I Have No Idea What It Means.”

 

 

第九天:策略

DAY 9: STRATEGY

安索夫,H.伊戈尔。“多元化战略。” 哈佛商业评论(1957 年 9 月/10 月),附件 I,“业务增长替代方案的产品市场战略”,第 12 页。114. 版权所有 © 1957 哈佛大学校长和院士;版权所有。经许可转载。

Ansoff, H. Igor. “Strategies for Diversification.” Harvard Business Review (September/October 1957), Exhibit I, “Product Market Strategies for Business Growth Alternatives,” p. 114. Copyright © 1957 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College; all rights reserved. Reprinted by permission.

Porter, Michael E. 竞争战略:分析行业和竞争对手的技术,图 2-1,p。39. 经 Simon & Schuster 旗下的 The Free Press 许可转载。版权所有 © 1980,1998 年由 The Free Press 所有。

Porter, Michael E. Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors, Figure 2–1, p. 39. Reprinted with the permission of The Free Press, a Division of Simon & Schuster. Copyright © 1980, 1998 by The Free Press.

Porter, Michael E. 竞争优势:创造和维持卓越绩效,图 1–1,p. 5,图 1-2,p。6. 经 Simon & Schuster 旗下的 The Free Press 许可转载。版权所有 © 1985,1998 年由 Michael E. Porter 所有。

Porter, Michael E. Competitive Advantage: Creating and Sustaining Superior Performance, Figure 1–1, p. 5, Figure 1–2, p. 6. Reprinted with the permission of The Free Press, a Division of Simon & Schuster. Copyright © 1985, 1998 by Michael E. Porter.

Waterman、Robert H.、Thomas J. Peters 和 Julien R. Phillips。“结构不是组织。” 商业视野,1980 年 6 月,图,p. 18. 版权所有 © 1980,印第安纳大学商学院基金会。经许可使用。

Waterman, Robert H., Thomas J. Peters, and Julien R. Phillips. “Structure Is Not Organization.” Business Horizons, June 1980, Figure, p. 18. Copyright © 1980 by the Foundation for the School of Business at Indiana University. Used with permission.

 

 

第 10 天:MBA 迷你课程

DAY 10: MBA MINICOURSES

Borden, Neil H., Jr.“国际商务课堂笔记”,达顿商学院,弗吉尼亚州夏洛茨维尔,经许可使用。

Borden, Neil H., Jr. “Class Notes on Conducting International Business,” Darden Graduate School of Business, Charlottesville, Virginia, used with permission.

指数

Index

此电子版的页码与创建它的版本不匹配。要查找特定段落,请使用电子书阅读器的搜索工具。

The pagination of this electronic edition does not match the edition from which it was created. To locate a specific passage, please use your ebook reader’s search tools.

 

 

会计,71-118

accounting, 71–118

会计利润, 167

accounting profits, 167

成本核算和基于活动的成本核算,114–115、118

cost accounting and activity-based costing, 114–115, 118

收益错报警告,115-116

earnings misstatement cautions, 115–116

财务报表,81-104

financial statements, 81–104

财务报表、比率和, 104–111, 118

financial statements, ratios and, 104–111, 118

基本会计方程式,82–84、96–97、104、117

fundamental accounting equation, 82–84, 96–97, 104, 117

71–81、116–117 的基本原理

fundamentals of, 71–81, 116–117

公认会计原则和 73–74

GAAP and, 73–74

管理会计, 111–114, 276

managerial accounting, 111–114, 276

萨班斯-奥克斯利法案和 66–70, 115

Sarbanes-Oxley Act and, 66–70, 115

会计准则编纂 (ASC),73

Accounting Standards Codification (ASC), 73

权责发生制会计, 75–76, 89, 91, 117

accrual accounting, 75–76, 89, 91, 117

累计值, 171–172, 197

accumulated value, 171–172, 197

运营杆,123、150、364

action levers, 123, 150, 364

行动计划,组织行为学,123–124, 148, 150, 158

action planning, in organizational behavior, 123–124, 148, 150, 158

积极倾听, 135, 158

active listening, 135, 158

基于活动的成本核算 (ABC),

114–115, 118

activity-based costing (ABC),

114–115, 118

活动分叉,在决策树中,

161

activity forks, in decision trees,

161

活动比率, 105, 107–108

activity ratios, 105, 107–108

活动方块,在决策树中,164

activity squares, in decision tree, 164

广告,11、36、38–40

advertising, 11, 36, 38–40

富裕社会,The (Galbraith), 312

Affluent Society, The (Galbraith), 312

税后借款成本, 234,

255

after-tax cost of borrowing, 234,

255

代理协议,商法,382

agency agreements, in business law, 382

总供给 (AS)/总需求 (AD),290–291

aggregate supply (AS)/aggregate demand (AD), 290–291

AIDA 购买过程,6-7

AIDA buying process, 6–7

美国国际集团,227–228

AIG, 227–228

代数复习,190

algebra refresher, 190

替代产品,在消费者分析中,7

alternative products, in consumer analysis, 7

美国资本主义:反补贴的概念(加尔布雷思),312

American Capitalism: The Concept of Countervailing Power (Galbraith), 312

无定形结构,组织结构,147

amorphous structure, of organization, 147

摊销,91

amortization, 91

安索夫,HI,337

Ansoff, H. I., 337

安索夫矩阵, 337–338, 365

Ansoff matrix, 337–338, 365

APCFB 模型,在组织行为中,124–126, 158

APCFB model, in organizational behavior, 124–126, 158

苹果电脑,153–155

Apple Computer, 153–155

主导影响区域 (ADI),13

Areas of Dominant Influence (ADIs), 13

亚瑟·D·利特 (Arthur D. Little),355–357 年

Arthur D. Little, 355–357

孙子兵法,(孙子),

363–364

Art of War, The (Sun-Tzu),

363–364

装配线,262

assembly lines, 262

资产,82-84

assets, 82–84

每股资产价值,219–220

asset value per share, 219–220

意识,在消费者分析中,7

awareness, in consumer analysis, 7

 

 

向后整合,333–334

backward integration, 333–334

寄托, 379

bailment, 379

国际收支, 315–316, 325

balance of payments, 315–316, 325

资产负债表, 82–89, 117

balance sheet, 82–89, 117

复式记账系统,84-85

double entry system, 84–85

基本会计方程式,82–84、96–97、104、117

fundamental accounting equation, 82–84, 96–97, 104, 117

损益表的链接,94-95

income statement’s link to, 94–95

流动性,86–87

liquidity, 86–87

所有者权益,88–89

owners’ equity, 88–89

现金流量表链接至,96-97

Statement of Cash Flows link to, 96–97

营运资金, 87

working capital, 87

银行融资,233-234

bank financing, 233–234

破产法,383

bankruptcy law, 383

进入壁垒, 22, 342

barriers to entry, 22, 342

基本组织模型,141、158、329

basic organizational model, 141, 158, 329

巴吉特、露辛达、391、393

Basset, Lucinda, 391, 393

贝克尔,加里,313

Becker, Gary, 313

行为经济学,313

behavioral economics, 313

行为市场细分,14

behavioral market segmentation, 14

钟形曲线。正态分布

bell curve. See normal distribution

基准测试, 276

benchmarking, 276

Beta,企业投资和,

204-207,255

Beta, corporate investments and,

204–207, 255

二项分布, 177–179, 198

binomial distribution, 177–179, 198

布莱克,费舍尔,223

Black, Fisher, 223

Black-Scholes 期权定价模型,223–224

Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model, 223–224

黑天鹅投资者,211

Black Swan investors, 211

阻塞策略,在市场营销中,25

blocking strategy, in marketing, 25

博客, 44, 367

blogs, 44, 367

蓝海战略,347

blue ocean strategies, 347

债券市场

bond market

商业融资方法和,234

business financing methods and, 234

货币政策和,309

monetary policy and, 309

估价和, 211–216, 255

valuation and, 211–216, 255

老板,管理,136-138

boss, managing of, 136–138

波士顿咨询集团 (BCG),344、352–354

Boston Consulting Group (BCG), 344, 352–354

括号中值技术,定量分析,187

bracket median technique, in quantitative analysis, 187

品牌资产,33–34

brand equity, 33–34

收支平衡点,营销,

50–55, 59

break-even point, in marketing,

50–55, 59

举证责任,376

burden of proof, 376

大卫·伯恩斯,391–392

Burns, David, 391–392

商法,373–385

business law, 373–385

代理协议,382

agency agreements, 382

破产法,383

bankruptcy law, 383

普通法,373

common law, 373

合同和财产法,

377–378

contracts and property law,

377–378

犯罪和侵权行为,376–377

crimes and torts, 376–377

没有法庭的争端解决,375-376

dispute settlement without courts, 375–376

法律程序,374–375

legal process, 374–375

实体法和程序法,373-374

substantive and procedural laws, 373–374

UCC 第 2 条:销售合同,378–381

UCC Article 2: sales contracts, 378–381

UCC 第 3 条和第 4 条:商业票据,381–382

UCC Articles 3 and 4: commercial paper, 381–382

UCC 第 9 条:担保交易,383-384

UCC Article 9: secured transactions, 383–384

商业策略, 336

business strategy, 336

业务结构

business structures

公司,201-203

corporations, 201–203

伙伴关系,201

partnerships, 201

独资企业,200-201

proprietorships, 200–201

买家的悔恨,8

buyer’s remorse, 8

购买过程,营销,

6–9, 59

buying process, in marketing,

6–9, 59

 

 

可赎回债券,215–216

callable bonds, 215–216

看涨期权,

222–223、224–225、255

call options, 222–223, 224–225,

255

运营能力,260,

261–265, 287

capacity, in operations, 260,

261–265, 287

资本资产定价模型 (CAPM), 207–209, 240, 250–251, 255

capital asset pricing model (CAPM), 207–209, 240, 250–251, 255

资本预算,228-232

capital budgeting, 228–232

资本主义、社会主义和民主(熊彼特),311

Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy (Schumpeter), 311

资本化率法,在房地产估价中,388

capitalization rate method, in real estate valuation, 388

资本化比率, 105, 106

capitalization ratios, 105, 106

资本租赁,233

capital leases, 233

资本外流,319–320

capital outflows, 319–320

资本结构、融资决策和 235–242、250、255

capital structure, financing decisions and, 235–242, 250, 255

专属销售人员,37

captive sales force, 37

判例法,373

case law, 373

收付实现制会计, 75–76,

117

cash basis accounting, 75–76,

117

现金牛,增长/份额矩阵,352

cash cows, in growth/share matrix, 352

现金流量、房地产投资和 386–387

cash flow, real estate investing and, 386–387

现金流量分析,166–176

cash flow analysis, 166–176

累计值, 171–172,

197

accumulated value, 171–172,

197

商业投资决策,

231-232

business investment decisions,

231–232

内部收益率, 175–176, 197

internal rate of return, 175–176, 197

并购估值和,246–254

M&A valuation and, 246–254

净现值, 172–175, 197

net present value, 172–175, 197

量化,167–168

quantifying, 167–168

介入,166–167

steps in, 166–167

股票估值和,220

stock valuation and, 220

现金流量表。现金流量表

cash flow statement. See statement of cash flows

因果链,在组织行为中,122–123, 158

causal chains, in organizational behavior, 122–123, 158

C 类公司,202–203

C corporations, 202–203

中心极限定理,180

Central Limit Theorem, 180

连锁管理, 270

chain management, 270

钱皮,詹姆斯,357–358 年

Champy, James, 357–358

变革管理策略,

155-157

change management strategies,

155–157

通道,在排队论中,268

channel, in queuing theory, 268

渠道中介, 27

channel intermediaries, 27

通道边际数学,27–31、59

channel margin mathematics, 27–31, 59

渠道参与者,333

channel participant, 333

克莱顿法案,385

Clayton Act, 385

气候,组织,149-150

climate, of organization, 149–150

云计算, 283

cloud computing, 283

强制力,138

coercive power, 138

抵押贷款抵押义务 (CMO),227–228

collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs), 227–228

商业票据,法律问题,

381–382

commercial paper, legal issues,

381–382

Treadway 委员会 (COSO) 赞助组织委员会,69

Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission (COSO), 69

普通法,373

common law, 373

国家的比较优势,314-315

comparative advantage of nations, 314–315

竞赛

competition

竞争分析, 21–26, 57

competitive analysis, 21–26, 57

行业竞争因素,20

competitive factors of industries, 20

竞争战略战术,

347–351, 365

competitive strategy tactics,

347–351, 365

产品定位,25-26

positioning of product, 25–26

定价决定,49

pricing decisions, 49

纯粹的竞争,299

pure competition, 299

竞争优势(波特),

338–339

Competitive Advantage (Porter),

338–339

竞争战略(波特),

338–339

Competitive Strategy (Porter),

338–339

保守主义,会计学,77-78

conservatism, in accounting, 77–78

一致性,会计学,79-80

consistency, in accounting, 79–80

领事债券,215

consul bonds, 215

消费者分析, 4–16, 57

consumer analysis, 4–16, 57

消费者价格指数(CPI),302

consumer price index (CPI), 302

比赛,作为促销活动,43

contests, as promotions, 43

应急方法,在运营中,260

contingency approach, in operations, 260

或有负债,77

contingent liabilities, 77

连续生产过程,262

continuous production process, 262

持续质量改进 (CQI),260

continuous quality improvement (CQI), 260

合同法,377

contract law, 377

可转换债券,215

convertible bonds, 215

合作广告,36

cooperative advertising, 36

核心能力、战略和 357

core competencies, strategy and, 357

企业社会责任 (CSR) 报告,66

corporate social responsibility (CSR) reports, 66

公司战略,336–337

corporate strategy, 336–337

公司,201-203

corporations, 201–203

成本会计,114-115

cost accounting, 114–115

成本领先战略, 343–346, 365

cost leadership strategy, 343–346, 365

销货成本 (COGS), 76, 90

cost of goods sold (COGS), 76, 90

每千人成本 (CPM),在广告中,40

cost per thousand (CPM), in advertising, 40

成本加定价,48

cost plus pricing, 48

国家分析,国际经济学,319–324, 325

country analysis, in international economics, 319–324, 325

优惠券,41–42

coupons, 41–42

涵盖的选项,222

covered options, 222

史蒂芬·科维,394

Covey, Stephen, 394

“使项目崩溃”,267

“crashing the project,” 267

创意/创意,广告,39

creative/creatives, in advertising, 39

“创造性破坏”,311

“creative destruction,” 311

组织行为中的创造力,131–132

creativity, in organizational behavior, 131–132

信用违约互换 (CDS),

227–228

credit default swaps (CDSs),

227–228

学分,录音,93

credits, recording of, 93

犯罪和侵权行为,376–377

crimes and torts, 376–377

关键路径调度法 (CPM), 265–267, 287

critical path method of scheduling (CPM), 265–267, 287

克罗斯比,菲利普,280

Crosby, Philip, 280

文化相对主义,64

cultural relativism, 64

文化,组织,150,

329–330

culture, of organization, 150,

329–330

累积分布函数 (CDF), 185–189, 198

cumulative distribution functions (CDF), 185–189, 198

累计优先股,220-221

cumulative preferred shares, 220–221

流动资产和非流动资产,86–87、97、101

current and noncurrent assets, 86–87, 97, 101

客户关系管理 (CRM), 283–284, 287

customer relationship management (CRM), 283–284, 287

客户保留、战略和

357

customer retention, strategy and,

357

客户结构, 组织, 143, 329

customer structure, of organization, 143, 329

周期时间,在运营中,282

cycle time, in operations, 282

 

 

数据库、在线研究和

368–369

databases, online research and,

368–369

经销商奖励,43

dealer incentives, 43

借记,记录,93

debits, recording of, 93

决策树分析, 160–166, 197

decision tree analysis, 160–166, 197

绘制决策树,163–166

drawing decision tree, 163–166

介入,160–161

steps in, 160–161

产品生命周期的衰退阶段,19-20

decline stage, of product life cycle, 19–20

债权人违约,384

default, of creditor, 384

减少劳动力,149

demassing, of workforce, 149

戴明,W. 爱德华兹,277–278 年

Deming, W. Edwards, 277–278

人口市场细分,13

demographic market segmentation, 13

因变量,在回归分析中,190

dependent variables, in regression analysis, 190

折旧, 91, 100, 118, 168, 303

depreciation, 91, 100, 118, 168, 303

衍生物,226–228

derivatives, 226–228

指定市场区域 (DMA),13

Designated Market Areas (DMAs), 13

微分, 在营销, 33

differential, in marketing, 33

差异化战略,346–347

differentiation strategy, 346–347

直销,46–47

direct sales, 46–47

现金流量分析中的贴现因子,173–175

discount factors, in cash flow analysis, 173–175

贴现率,作为货币政策工具,309

discount rate, as monetary policy tool, 309

分布分析,7–8、26–31。另见概率论

distribution analysis, 7–8, 26–31. See also probability theory

分配策略, 35–37, 59

distribution strategies, 35–37, 59

多样化

diversification

企业投资, 204,

206

of corporate investments, 204,

206

作为企业战略,337–338、351

as corporate strategy, 337–338, 351

分红

dividends

占, 88, 92, 102

accounting for, 88, 92, 102

资本结构问题,242-244

capital structure issues, 242–244

股息增长模型, 217–218, 255

dividend growth model, 217–218, 255

部门结构,组织结构,143

divisional structure, of organization, 143

多德-弗兰克华尔街改革和消费者保护法案,70

Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, 70

狗,在增长/份额矩阵中,353

dogs, in growth/share matrix, 353

复式记账系统,会计学,84-85

double entry system, in accounting, 84–85

道琼斯工业平均指数,205

Dow Jones Industrial Average, 205

德雷曼,大卫,209

Dreman, David, 209

德鲁克,彼得,139

Drucker, Peter, 139

虚拟变量,195–196

dummy variables, 195–196

杜邦图表,109–110

Du Pont chart, 109–110

期间

duration

债券估值, 214–215, 255

in bond valuation, 214–215, 255

商业投资决策,229

business investment decisions and, 229

 

 

收益,关于错报的警告,115-116

earnings, cautions about misstatement of, 115–116

息税折旧及摊销前利润 (EBITDA),91

earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), 91

息税前利润 (EBIT), 91

earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT), 91

经济增长、货币主义思想和 307–310、325

economic growth, monetarist thought and, 307–310, 325

经济订货量 (EOQ),

272–274, 287

economic order quantity (EOQ),

272–274, 287

经济学,288–325

economics, 288–325

著名经济学家,310–313

economists of note, 310–313

国际经济学,313–324

international economics, 313–324

宏观经济学, 299–310, 324, 325

macroeconomics, 299–310, 324, 325

营销计划和 50–55, 58

marketing plan and, 50–55, 58

微观经济学, 291–299, 324

microeconomics, 291–299, 324

供求关系,290–291

supply and demand, 290–291

经济增加值(EVA),358

economic value added (EVA), 358

规模经济,343

economies of scale, 343

效率差异,管理会计,113-114

efficiency variances, in managerial accounting, 113–114

有效边界, 207, 255

efficient frontier, 207, 255

有效市场假说 (EMH),209–211

efficient market hypothesis (EMH), 209–211

弹性系数,296–297

elasticity coefficient, 296–297

需求弹性, 295–297, 325

elasticity of demand, 295–297, 325

员工激励,43

employee incentives, 43

赋权,劳动力,129

empowerment, of workforce, 129

终端游戏营销策略,20

end game marketing strategy, 20

企业资源规划 (ERP) 软件,276

enterprise resource planning (ERP) software, 276

企业价值 (EV),在并购估值中,246–254, 255

enterprise value (EV), in M&A valuation, 246–254, 255

实体,作为会计概念,74

entity, as accounting concept, 74

创业, 132, 311

entrepreneurship, 132, 311

均衡,经济学,290–291, 293, 325

equilibrium, in economics, 290–291, 293, 325

道德,60-62

ethics, 60–62

相对主义, 62, 63–64, 70

relativism, 62, 63–64, 70

萨班斯-奥克斯利法案,66–70

Sarbanes-Oxley Act, 66–70

社会责任, 62, 70

social responsibility, 62, 70

利益相关者分析, 62, 65–66,

67, 70

stakeholder analysis, 62, 65–66,

67, 70

事件,关键路径法,266

event, in critical path method, 266

事件扇,在累积分布分析中,187–188

event fan, in cumulative distribution analysis, 187–188

事件叉,在决策树中,161

event forks, in decision trees, 161

进化/革命模式,在组织中,153–155, 158

evolution/revolution pattern, in organizations, 153–155, 158

汇率,316–319

exchange rates, 316–319

独家经销,35–36

exclusive distribution, 35–36

行政道德,68

executive ethics, 68

扩张战略,337-338

expansion strategies, 337–338

动机的期望理论, 126–127, 158

expectancy theory of motivation, 126–127, 158

预期货币价值 (EMV), 163–165, 186–189, 197

expected monetary value (EMV), 163–165, 186–189, 197

经验曲线。查看学习曲线

experience curve. See learning curve

专家力量,139

expert power, 139

 

 

Factiva,367

Factiva, 367

法玛,尤金,209

Fama, Eugene, 209

美联储,211、309–310、322

Federal Reserve, 211, 309–310, 322

联邦贸易委员会法,

384

Federal Trade Commission Act,

384

FIFO(先进先出),79-80

FIFO (First In First Out), 79–80

金融,199–255

finance, 199–255

业务结构,200-203

business structures, 200–203

财务管理,228–244

financial management, 228–244

投资类型和估值方法,203-228

investment types and valuation methods, 203–228

并购,244–254

mergers and acquisitions, 244–254

财务会计准则委员会 (FASB),73、74

Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), 73, 74

财务杠杆, 108–110, 237, 243, 396

financial leverage, 108–110, 237, 243, 396

财务管理,228–244

financial management, 228–244

商业融资决策,

232-244

business financing decisions,

232–244

商业投资决策,

228-232

business investment decisions,

228–232

财务规划,个人,395–398

financial planning, personal, 395–398

财务报表,81-104

financial statements, 81–104

资产负债表, 82–89, 117

balance sheet, 82–89, 117

损益表, 89–95, 117

income statement, 89–95, 117

阅读比率,104–111, 118

reading with ratios, 104–111, 118

现金流量表, 95–103, 118

statement of cash flows, 95–103, 118

融资活动,在现金流量表中,102

financing activities, in statement of cash flows, 102

融资决策,财务管理,232-244

financing decisions, in financial management, 232–244

融资方式,232-235

financing methods, 232–235

比率和 237–239

ratios and, 237–239

融资方式的风险与回报, 235–236, 255

risk and reward of financing methods, 235–236, 255

财政政策、凯恩斯主义思想和 304–305、325

fiscal policy, Keynesian thought and, 304–305, 325

适合使用,277

fitness for use, 277

五个 C 的信用,233–234

Five C’s of credit, 233–234

五力理论, 338–342, 365

Five Forces Theory, 338–342, 365

五种策略,362-363

five forms of strategy, 362–363

固定成本

fixed costs

营销计划,50-51

marketing plan, 50–51

房地产投资,386–387

real estate investing, 386–387

浮动汇率,318

floating exchange rate, 318

流程图,诊断容量问题,263, 287

flow diagrams, diagnosing capacity problems with, 263, 287

重点战略,347

focus strategy, 347

不可抗力, 381

force majeure, 381

预测, 189–196, 198

forecasting, 189–196, 198

《反海外腐败法》,64

Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, 64

外汇,315-316

foreign exchange, 315–316

正向整合,333–334

forward integration, 333–334

网络营销的四个 C,31

Four Cs of Internet marketing, 31

营销四 Ps, 32–50, 58

Four Ps of marketing, 32–50, 58

销售地点决定,35-37

place of sale decisions, 35–37

定价决策,47-50

pricing decisions, 47–50

产品决策,32-35

product decisions, 32–35

促销决定,37-47

promotional decisions, 37–47

分形分析,187–189

fractile analysis, 187–189

自由现金流,250

free cash flow, 250

独立式刀片 (FSI),42

freestanding inserts (FSIs), 42

法国人,肯尼斯,209

French, Kenneth, 209

频率,在广告中,39

frequency, in advertising, 39

FRICTO, 236–237, 255

FRICTO, 236–237, 255

弗里德曼,迈耶,133

Friedman, Meyer, 133

Friedman, Milton, 62, 300。另见货币主义思想

Friedman, Milton, 62, 300. See also monetarist thought

弗里德曼,托马斯,360

Friedman, Thomas, 360

友好收购,245

friendly acquisition, 245

履行, 销售订单, 47

fulfillment, of sales orders, 47

功能策略,336

functional strategies, 336

组织的职能结构, 142, 329

functional structure, of organization, 142, 329

期货,226-228

futures, 226–228

未来价值,171

future value, 171

定量分析表,403

quantitative analysis table, 403

 

 

加巴罗,约翰,137 岁

Gabarro, John, 137

加尔布雷思,约翰·肯尼思,311–312

Galbraith, John Kenneth, 311–312

博弈论,350–351

game theory, 350–351

甘特图,亨利,265

Gantt, Henry, 265

甘特图调度, 265–266,

287

Gantt chart scheduling, 265–266,

287

公认会计原则 (GAAP),73–74

Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), 73–74

普通合伙企业,201

general partnerhips, 201

就业、利息和货币通论,(凯恩斯),300

General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, The (Keynes), 300

地理市场细分,13

geographic market segmentation, 13

地理结构,组织,143

geographic structure, of organization, 143

吉尔布雷斯、弗兰克和莉莲,258 岁

Gilbreth, Frank and Lillian, 258

吉尔德,乔治,313

Gilder, George, 313

全球化、战略和, 358–360, 365

globalization, strategy and, 358–360, 365

GNP平减指数,302

GNP deflator index, 302

GNP 方程式,303–304

GNP equation, 303–304

组织行为中的目标一致性,126、158

goal congruence, in organizational behavior, 126, 158

目标,组织,331, 332

goals, of organization, 331, 332

持续经营,会计学,78-79

going concern, in accounting, 78–79

政府证券,作为货币政策工具,309

government securities, as monetary policy tool, 309

格林,斯科特,69 岁

Green, Scott, 69

格雷纳·拉里,153 岁

Greiner, Larry, 153

国内生产总值 (GDP),

302–303

gross domestic product (GDP),

302–303

总租金,386

gross lease, 386

毛利率, 89, 91, 117

gross margin, 89, 91, 117

国民生产总值 (GNP),

301–307, 325

gross national product (GNP),

301–307, 325

总收视率 (GRP),在广告中,39

gross rating points (GRPs), in advertising, 39

总租金乘数,房地产估价和,388

gross rent multiplier, real estate valuation and, 388

增长/份额矩阵,352–354

growth/share matrix, 352–354

产品生命周期的成长期,18

growth stage, of product life cycle, 18

 

 

光晕效果,44

halo effect, 44

迈克尔·哈默,357–358 年

Hammer, Michael, 357–358

霍桑效应,258–259

Hawthorne effect, 258–259

对冲基金,206

hedge funds, 206

对冲,作为期权策略,226

hedging, as options strategy, 226

弗雷德·赫茨伯格,127 岁

Hertzberg, Fred, 127

需求层次,127

hierarchy of needs, 127

高参与度产品,9-12

high-involvement products, 9–12

历史成本,77-78

historical costs, 77–78

房屋所有权、个人财务规划和 396

home ownership, personal financial planning and, 396

横向整合,334–335

horizontal integration, 334–335

恶意收购,245

hostile takeover, 245

生产管理中的人际关系运动,258

human relations movement, in production management, 258

人才流动金字塔,151

human talent flow pyramid, 151

最低要求, 174, 175

hurdle rate, 174, 175

混合结构,组织,147-148

hybrid structure, of organization, 147–148

 

 

实施, 战略, 364

implementation, of strategies, 364

不可能的三部曲、汇率和 318–319

impossible trilogy, exchange rates and, 318–319

损益表, 89–95, 117

income statement, 89–95, 117

毛利率, 89, 91

gross margin, 89, 91

日记条目,92–94

journal entries, 92–94

资产负债表链接,94-95

link to balance sheet, 94–95

净收入,91-92

net income, 91–92

营业利润,91

operating profit, 91

渐进主义、战略和, 362, 365

incrementalism, strategy and, 362, 365

自变量,在回归分析中,189-190

independent variables, in regression analysis, 189–190

行业分析、战略和,

338–342, 365

industry analysis, strategy and,

338–342, 365

缺乏弹性的需求,296

inelastic demand, 296

通货膨胀、凯恩斯主义思想和 301–307、308–309

inflation, Keynesian thought and, 301–307, 308–309

消费者行为的影响者,7

influencers, of consumer behavior, 7

电视广告,46

infomercials, 46

信息搜索,消费者分析,7

information search, in consumer analysis, 7

信息技术 (IT), 283–285

information technology (IT), 283–285

首次公开募股 (IPO),235

initial pubic offering (IPO), 235

店内示范,44

in-store demonstrations, 44

整合、战略和, 333–335, 365

integration, strategy and, 333–335, 365

交互式语音应答 (IVR),

283–284

interactive voice response (IVR),

283–284

内部会计控制, 68, 69

internal accounting controls, 68, 69

内部收益率 (IRR),

175–176, 197

internal rate of return (IRR),

175–176, 197

国际会计准则委员会 (IASB),73–74

International Accounting Standards Board (IASB), 73–74

国际商务

international business

全球化和 358–360, 365

globalization and, 358–360, 365

研究资源,369

research resource for, 369

指导技巧,372

tips for conducting, 372

国际经济学,313–324

international economics, 313–324

国际收支, 315–316, 325

balance of payments, 315–316, 325

国家的比较优势,314-315

comparative advantage of nations, 314–315

国家分析, 319–324, 325

country analysis, 319–324, 325

汇率和价格平价,316–318

exchange rate and price parity, 316–318

汇率制度,318–319

exchange rate systems, 318–319

国际财务报告准则 (IFRS),73–74

International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), 73–74

互联网

Internet

营销,46-47

marketing on, 46–47

研究资源,367–369

research resources on, 367–369

在分销渠道中的作用,31

role in distribution channels, 31

内部创业者,311

intrapreneur, 311

介绍阶段,产品生命周期,18

introduction stage, of product life cycle, 18

库存,运营中,

260、270–276

inventory, in operations, 260,

270–276

经济订货量, 272–274, 287

economic order quantity, 272–274, 287

库存流程图,270-271

inventory flow diagram, 270–271

即时库存,271–272

just-in-time inventory, 271–272

物料需求计划, 274–276, 287

material requirements planning, 274–276, 287

按持有原因分类,

271–272, 287

types by reason for holding,

271–272, 287

按生产阶段划分的类型,

270–271, 287

types by stage of production,

270–271, 287

现金流量表中的投资活动,101-102

investing activities, in statement of cash flows, 101–102

投资和支出曲线 (IS),305–306

investment and spending curve (IS), 305–306

投资银行家, 235, 244, 354

investment bankers, 235, 244, 354

投资、企业融资和 203-211

investments, corporate finance and, 203–211

资本资产定价模型,

207–209, 255

capital asset pricing model,

207–209, 255

有效边界, 207, 255

efficient frontier, 207, 255

有效市场假说,

209-211

efficient market hypothesis,

209–211

风险和回报问题,203-207

risk and return issues, 203–207

投资,个人,397

investments, personal, 397

投资、类型和估值方法,211-228

investments, types and valuation methods, 211–228

债券市场, 211–216, 255

bond market, 211–216, 255

衍生物,226–228

derivatives, 226–228

期权市场,221-226

options market, 221–226

股票市场,217–221

stock market, 217–221

“看不见的手”,311

“invisible hand,” 311

商品的 IS/LM 曲线,305–307

IS/LM curve of the goods, 305–307

 

 

苏珊·杰弗斯,390、392–393

Jeffers, Susan, 390, 392–393

工作设计,组织行为,128-129

job design, in organizational behavior, 128–129

工作分解,257

job fractionalization, 257

乔布斯,史蒂文,153–155

Jobs, Steven, 153–155

作业车间生产系统,262–263

job shop production system, 262–263

约翰逊,斯宾塞,393–394 年

Johnson, Spencer, 393–394

会计分录,84-85、92-94

journal entries, in accounting, 84–85, 92–94

垃圾债券,216

junk bonds, 216

朱兰, 约瑟夫, 277, 278

Juran, Joseph, 277, 278

准时制 (JIT) 库存,271–272

just-in-time (JIT) inventory, 271–272

 

 

改善, 260

kaizen, 260

看板, 272

kanban, 272

凯恩斯,约翰·梅纳德,300。另见凯恩斯主义思想

Keynes, John Maynard, 300. See also Keynesian thought

凯恩斯主义思想

Keynesian thought

就业和, 301–307, 325

employment and, 301–307, 325

货币主义思想对比, 300–301, 303–304, 307–309, 310, 324

monetarist thought contrasted, 300–301, 303–304, 307–309, 310, 324

关键词广告,46-47

key word advertising, 46–47

科特勒,菲利普,2

Kotler, Philip, 2

约翰·科特,137 岁

Kotter, John, 137

 

 

亚瑟·拉弗,312–313、325

Laffer, Arthur, 312–313, 325

拉弗曲线,312–313

Laffer curve, 312–313

领导力,129–131、389–395

leadership, 129–131, 389–395

学习曲线、策略和, 343–346, 363, 365

learning curve, strategy and, 343–346, 363, 365

学习型组织,150

learning organizations, 150

租赁融资,233

lease financing, 233

最小二乘法,回归分析,190

least squares method, in regression analysis, 190

法律问题。另见商法

legal issues. See also business law

法律程序的基本步骤,

374-375

basic steps in legal process,

374–375

信号策略,348-349

signaling strategy, 348–349

合法权力,139

legitimate power, 139

杠杆收购 (LBO), 246

leverage buyout (LBO), 246

负债,82-84

liabilities, 82–84

LIFO(后进先出),79–80

LIFO (Last In First Out), 79–80

有限合伙企业,201

limited partnerships, 201

线性规划、容量限制和 263–265、287

linear programming, capacity constraints and, 263–265, 287

线性回归,189

linear regression, 189

线路延伸,32–34

line extension, 32–34

联系。查看协同作用

linkages. See synergy

流动性

liquidity

资产负债表和,86-87

balance sheet and, 86–87

流动性比率,105

liquidity ratios, 105

流动性和货币曲线 (LM),

305–306

liquidity and money curve (LM),

305–306

逻辑渐进主义, 362, 365

logical incrementalism, 362, 365

低成本生产商 (LCP),343

low-cost producers (LCPs), 343

低参与度产品,9-12

low-involvement products, 9–12

 

 

M1 和 M2(货币供应量),307

M1 and M2 (money supply), 307

宏观经济学, 299–310, 324, 325

macroeconomics, 299–310, 324, 325

著名经济学家,310–313

economists of note, 310–313

凯恩斯主义和货币主义思想对比,300–301、303–304、307–309、310、324

Keynesian and monetarist thought contrasted, 300–301, 303–304, 307–309, 310, 324

凯恩斯主义思想与就业, 301–307, 325

Keynesian thought and employment, 301–307, 325

货币主义思想与经济增长,307–310、325

monetarist thought and economic growth, 307–310, 325

麦道夫,伯尼,44 岁,60 岁,393 岁

Madoff, Bernie, 44, 60, 393

目标管理 (MBO),139–140

management by objective (MBO), 139–140

走动管理 (MBWA), 140

management by walking around (MBWA), 140

管理科学, 259

management science, 259

管理会计, 111–114, 276

managerial accounting, 111–114, 276

萨班斯-奥克斯利法案经理指南(绿色),69

Manager’s Guide to the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (Green), 69

保证金账户,227

margin account, 227

边际消费倾向 (MPC),304

marginal propensity to consume (MPC), 304

边际收益 (MR)/边际成本 (MC), 292–295, 325

marginal revenue (MR)/marginal cost (MC), 292–295, 325

边际效用,295

marginal utility, 295

边距, 37

margins, 37

市场分析, 16–20, 57

market analysis, 16–20, 57

市场营销,1–59

marketing, 1–59

竞争分析,21-26

competitive analysis, 21–26

消费者分析,4-16

consumer analysis, 4–16

分布分析,26-31

distribution analysis, 26–31

经济学和,50-55

economics and, 50–55

市场分析,16-20

market analysis, 16–20

营销组合开发,

32-50

marketing mix development,

32–50

修订计划,56

revision of plan, 56

概述战略流程,3–4、5、57–59

strategy process outlined, 3–4, 5, 57–59

市场风险溢价 (MRP),208

market risk premium (MRP), 208

市场份额杠杆,23

market share leverage, 23

市场结构, 298–299, 325

market structures, 298–299, 325

市场增加值(MVA),358

market value added (MVA), 358

加价, 28

markups, 28

马斯洛,亚伯拉罕,127

Maslow, Abraham, 127

大规模定制,282-283

mass customization, 282–283

大规模/密集分布,35-36

mass/intensive distribution, 35–36

销售额与成本的匹配,76、91

matching, of sales to costs, 76, 91

会计中的重要性,80

materiality, in accounting, 80

物料需求计划 (MRP), 274–276, 287

material requirements planning (MRP), 274–276, 287

矩阵结构,组织结构,143, 145, 147

matrix structure, of organization, 143, 145, 147

产品生命周期的成熟阶段,18-19

maturity stage, of product life cycle, 18–19

埃尔顿·梅奥,258–259、287

Mayo, Elton, 258–259, 287

大卫·麦克莱兰,127 岁

McClelland, David, 127

麦格雷戈,道格拉斯,259

McGregor, Douglas, 259

麦肯锡公司, 354–355, 362

McKinsey & Company, 354–355, 362

平均 µ/中值/众数,181–182,

198

mean µ/median/mode, 181–182,

198

媒体混乱,40

media clutter, 40

并购 (M&A),244–254

mergers and acquisitions (M&A), 244–254

出价, 254

making bid, 254

原因,244-245

reasons for, 244–245

类型,245–246

types of, 245–246

估值过程,246-254

valuation process, 246–254

微观经济学, 291–299, 324

microeconomics, 291–299, 324

边际收入和成本,

292–295, 325

marginal revenue and cost,

292–295, 325

边际效用,295

marginal utility, 295

市场结构, 298–299, 325

market structures, 298–299, 325

机会成本,292

opportunity costs, 292

需求价格弹性,

295–297, 325

price elasticity of demand,

295–297, 325

米勒·默顿,237–238

Miller, Merton, 237–238

思维导图, 132, 133

mind-mapping, 132, 133

使命宣言、战略和

331–332

mission statement, strategy and,

331–332

佛朗哥·莫迪利亚尼,237–238 年

Modigliani, Franco, 237–238

货币主义思想

monetarist thought

经济增长和 307–310, 325

economic growth and, 307–310, 325

凯恩斯主义思想对比,

300–301, 303–304, 307–309, 310, 324

Keynesian thought contrasted,

300–301, 303–304, 307–309, 310, 324

货币政策工具,309-310

monetary policy tools, 309–310

货币市场、IS/LM 曲线和 305–307

money markets, IS/LM curve and, 305–307

货币供应量,307–308

money supply, 307–308

垄断,298–299

monopolies, 298–299

蒙特卡洛模拟,188

Monte Carlo simulations, 188

多因素分析,354–355

multifactor analysis, 354–355

跨国公司 (MNC)。参见全球化;国际经济学

multinational corporations (MNCs). See globalization; international economics

每股多个现金流,220

multiple cash flow per share, 220

每股账面价值的倍数,219

multiple of book value per share, 219

乘数效应, 304, 325

multiplier effect, 304, 325

多变量回归,194

multivariable regression, 194

 

 

朴素的相对主义,63

naive relativism, 63

裸期权,222

naked options, 222

纳斯达克,235

NASDAQ, 235

自然法、伦理和 64

natural law, ethics and, 64

需要类别, 市场营销, 5–6, 59

need categories, in marketing, 5–6, 59

谈判技巧,371-372

negotiating tips, 371–372

净收入, 91–92, 100–101

net income, 91–92, 100–101

国民生产净值 (NNP),302–303

net national product (NNP), 302–303

税后净营业利润 (NOPAT),248–249

Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT), 248–249

净现值 (NPV)。另见现值

net present value (NPV). See also present value

债券估值,212-214

bond valuation, 212–214

商业投资决策, 228, 230–232

business investment decisions, 228, 230–232

现金流量分析, 172–175, 197

cash flow analysis, 172–175, 197

并购估值,251–252

M&A valuation, 251–252

净营运资金, 87, 117

net working capital, 87, 117

新工业州(Galbraith), 312

New Industrial State, The (Galbraith), 312

牛顿,德里克 A.,41 岁

Newton, Derek A., 41

名义国民生产总值,302

nominal GNP, 302

正态分布(钟形曲线),

180–185、198、278

normal distribution (bell curve),

180–185, 198, 278

定量分析表,404

quantitative analysis table, 404

更替,381

novation, 381

NYSE(纽约证券交易所),235

NYSE (New York Stock Exchange), 235

 

 

会计中的客观性规则,

76-77

objectivity rule, in accounting,

76–77

办公程序,135-140

office procedures, 135–140

奥肯,亚瑟,312

Okun, Arthur, 312

奥肯定律,312

Okun’s Law, 312

寡头垄断,298

oligopoly, 298

公开市场运营,309

open market operations, 309

现金流量表中的经营活动,100–101

operating activities, in statement of cash flows, 100–101

营业收入,92

operating income, 92

经营租赁, 233

operating leases, 233

营业利润,91

operating profit, 91

运筹学 (OR), 259

operational research (OR), 259

运营,256–287

operations, 256–287

当前主题,281-284

current topics in, 281–284



257–260的历史改进

historical improvements in,

257–260

问题解决框架,

260–276, 287

problem solving framework,

260–276, 287

标准和控制, 260,

276–281

standards and control, 260,

276–281

机会成本,292

opportunity costs, 292

最佳资本结构, 239–244, 255

optimal capital structure, 239–244, 255

期权市场,221-226。另见衍生品

options market, 221–226. See also derivatives

组织行为,119-158

organizational behavior, 119–158

个人水平,124-140

individual level, 124–140

组织层面,140-157

organizational level, 140–157

问题解决模型,120–124

problem-solving model, 120–124

组织修补,327

organizational tinkering, 327

威廉·大内,259–260 年

Ouchi, William, 259–260

场外交易 (OTC) 股票,235

over the counter (OTC) traded stocks, 235

所有者权益, 82–84, 88–89

owners’ equity, 82–84, 88–89

 

 

范式,在组织行为中,150, 158

paradigms, in organizational behavior, 150, 158

口头证据规则,380–381

parol evidence rule, 380–381

伙伴关系,201

partnerships, 201

专利研究, 367

patent research, 367

投资回收期

payback period

商业投资决策,

229-230

business investment decisions,

229–230

营销成本,55

marketing costs, 55

Pearson Tukey 方法,188

Pearson Tukey Method, 188

挂钩, 货币, 318

pegging, of currency, 318

PEG比率,219

PEG ratio, 219

渗透战略、定价和 48–49

penetration strategy, pricing and, 48–49

绩效评估,135-136

performance appraisals, 135–136

永久映射,23–26、34、59

perpetual mapping, 23–26, 34, 59

永久债券,215

perpetuity bonds, 215

MBA 的人格特质,

129–134

personality traits, of MBAs,

129–134

个人推销,40–41

personal selling, 40–41

PERT(项目评估和审查技术),265–266

PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique), 265–266

Peters, Thomas J., 327.另见Seven S 战略模型

Peters, Thomas J., 327. See also Seven S strategy model

菲利普斯,AW,308

Phillips, A. W., 308

菲利普斯曲线,309

Phillips curve, 309

菲利普斯,朱利安 R.,327

Phillips, Julien R., 327

皮肯斯,T. 布恩,245–246 年

Pickens, T. Boone, 245–246

销售地点决定,35-37

place of sale decisions, 35–37

货架图,30

planograms, 30

购买点 (POP) 展示,43

point-of-purchase (POP) displays, 43

毒物分布,185

Poison distribution, 185

波特,迈克尔,338

Porter, Michael, 338

投资组合策略, 351–357, 365

portfolio strategies, 351–357, 365

产品定位, 25–26, 34

positioning of product, 25–26, 34

消费者的购买后行为

,8

postpurchase behavior,

of consumer, 8

组织行为中的权力,138–139, 158

powers, in organizational behavior, 138–139, 158

优先股,220–221

preferred stock, 220–221

保费,42-43

premiums, 42–43

现值,定量分析表,402

present value, quantitative analysis table, 402

市盈率(PE),218

price-earnings ratio (PE), 218

需求价格弹性,49–50, 295–297, 325

price elasticity of demand, 49–50, 295–297, 325

市销率,219

price-to-sales ratio, 219

价格差异,管理会计,111–112, 118

price variances, in managerial accounting, 111–112, 118

市场营销中的定价决策,

47–50, 59

pricing decisions, in marketing,

47–50, 59

最优惠利率,309

prime rate, 309

政策、经济和税收原则(李嘉图),314

Principles of Policy, Economy and Taxation (Ricardo), 314

索赔的优先权,在商法中,384

priority of claims, in business law, 384

囚徒困境, 349–350, 365

Prisoner’s Dilemma, 349–350, 365

相对性规则,381

privity rule, 381

概率密度函数, 177, 180

probability density function, 177, 180

概率质量函数, 177, 180

probability mass function, 177, 180

概率论,176–189

probability theory, 176–189

贝塔和企业投资,204

Beta and corporate investments, 204

二项分布, 177–179, 198

binomial distribution, 177–179, 198

累积分布函数, 185–189, 198

cumulative distribution functions, 185–189, 198

正态分布, 180–185, 198

normal distribution, 180–185, 198

概率分布, 176–177, 197

probability distributions, 176–177, 197

解决问题的方法,销售,40-41

problem-solving approach, to selling, 40–41

问题解决框架,在运营中,260–276, 287

problem solving framework, in operations, 260–276, 287

库存, 260, 270–276

inventory, 260, 270–276

调度, 260, 265–270

scheduling, 260, 265–270

六个 M 的容量,260、261–265、287

Six M’s of Capacity, 260, 261–265, 287

问题解决模型,组织行为学,

120-124

problem-solving model, in organizational behavior,

120–124

程序法,373

procedural laws, 373

生产者价格指数(PPI),302

producer price index (PPI), 302

产品决策、营销和 32–35

product decisions, marketing and, 32–35

产品参与、营销和, 9–12, 59

product involvement, marketing and, 9–12, 59

生产方法,262-263

production methods, 262–263

产品责任,380

product liability, 380

产品生命周期 (PLC), 17–20,

34–35, 59, 346

product life cycle (PLC), 17–20,

34–35, 59, 346

产品结构,组织,143

product structure, of organization, 143

盈利能力指数 (PI),231–232

profitability index (PI), 231–232

获利比率, 105, 108–109

profitability ratios, 105, 108–109

利润目标,49

profit goals, 49

促销决定,37-47

promotional decisions, 37–47

财产法,378

property law, 378

独资企业,200-201

proprietorships, 200–201

心理市场细分,13

psychographic market segmentation, 13

心理学(APCFB 模型), 134–136, 158

psychology (APCFB model), 134–136, 158

出版物,保持最新,370-371

publications, for keeping current, 370–371

公共关系/宣传,44–46

public relations/publicity, 44–46

公开演讲技巧,371

public speaking tips, 371

拉/推促销策略,38

pull/push promotion strategies, 38

购买决定,8

purchase decisions, 8

购买货币担保权益 (PMSI),384

purchase money security interest (PMSI), 384

购买价格差异,管理会计,113-114

purchase price variances, in managerial accounting, 113–114

购买力平价理论,317

purchasing-power parity theory, 317

纯粹的竞争,299

pure competition, 299

纯粹的垄断,298

pure monopoly, 298

看跌期权, 222–223, 225, 255

put options, 222–223, 225, 255

 

 

质量、定价决策和 49

quality, pricing decisions and, 49

质量圈,260

quality circles, 260

质量控制,277–281

quality control, 277–281

工作生活质量 (QWL),129

quality of work life (QWL), 129

定量分析,159–199

quantitative analysis, 159–199

现金流量分析,166–176

cash flow analysis, 166–176

决策树分析, 160–166, 197

decision tree analysis, 160–166, 197

概率论,176–189

probability theory, 176–189

回归分析与预测, 189–196, 198

regression analysis and forecasting, 189–196, 198

表,402-404

tables, 402–404

量化宽松 (QE),309

quantitative easing (QE), 309

货币数量论方程,307–308

Quantity Theory Equation of Money, 307–308

问号,增长/份额矩阵,353

question marks, in growth/share matrix, 353

排队论, 268–270, 287

queuing theory, 268–270, 287

奎因,詹姆斯布赖恩,362

Quinn, James Brian, 362

 

 

R(范围)控制图,280、281

R (range) control charts, 280, 281

比率

ratios

资本结构问题,237-239

capital structure issues, 237–239

股息支付和 242

dividend payout and, 242

股票估值和,218–219

stock valuation and, 218–219

比率,阅读财务报表,104–111, 118

ratios, reading financial statements with, 104–111, 118

活动比率, 105, 107–108

activity ratios, 105, 107–108

资本化比率, 105, 106

capitalization ratios, 105, 106

杜邦图表,109–110

Du Pont chart, 109–110

行业特定性质,

110–111

industry-specific nature of,

110–111

流动性比率,105

liquidity ratios, 105

获利比率, 105, 108–109

profitability ratios, 105, 108–109

达到,在广告中,39

reach, in advertising, 39

房地产投资技巧,386–389

real estate investing tips, 386–389

回扣、营销和 42

rebates, marketing and, 42

部队减少(RIF),149

reduction in force (RIF), 149

再造, 327

reengineering, 327

再造公司(Champy 和 Hammer),

357–358

Reengineering the Corporation (Champy and Hammer),

357–358

参考功率,138–139

referent power, 138–139

退款、营销和 42

refunds, marketing and, 42

回归分析与预测, 189–196, 198

regression analysis and forecasting, 189–196, 198

代数复习,190

algebra refresher, 190

虚拟变量,195–196

dummy variables, 195–196

R 广场, 193

R Square, 193

标准错误,194

standard error, 194

T 统计量,194

T statistic, 194

关系营销,20

relationship marketing, 20

相对主义、伦理学和 62, 63–64, 70

relativism, ethics and, 62, 63–64, 70

相关市场, 16–17, 59

relevant market, 16–17, 59

训斥, 员工, 136

reprimands, of employees, 136

研究/情报收集资源,366–371

research/intelligence gathering resources, 366–371

准备金要求,作为货币政策工具,309-310

reserve requirements, as monetary policy tool, 309–310

重组

restructuring

债权组合,235–236

of debt to equity mix, 235–236

劳动力,149

of work force, 149

零售价,28

retail price, 28

留存收益 (RE), 88, 93, 94, 95, 102

retained earnings (RE), 88, 93, 94, 95, 102

资产回报率 (ROA), 110

return on assets (ROA), 110

股本回报率 (ROE),108–109

return on equity (ROE), 108–109

销售回报率 (ROS), 108, 110

return on sales (ROS), 108, 110

收入,记录,93

revenue, recording of, 93

左轮手枪融资,233

revolver financing, 233

奖励权力,138

reward power, 138

大卫·里卡多,314

Ricardo, David, 314

里斯,艾尔,25–26 岁

Ries, Al, 25–26

风险和回报问题、公司融资和 203–207

risk and return issues, corporate finance and, 203–207

商业融资决策,

235-236

business financing decisions,

235–236

商业投资决策,231

business investment decisions, 231

罗宾逊-帕特曼法案,385

Robinson-Patman Act, 385

角色相对主义,63

role relativism, 63

罗斯曼·雷,133 岁

Roseman, Ray, 133

R 广场, 193

R Square, 193

 

 

销售,法律定义,379

sale, legal definition of, 379

销售合同、法律问题,378–381

sales contracts, legal issues, 378–381

促销,41–44

sales promotion, 41–44

样本, 42

samples, 42

萨班斯-奥克斯利法案,66–70, 115

Sarbanes-Oxley Act, 66–70, 115

情景分析,323

scenario analysis, 323

调度, 在运营中, 260,

265–270

scheduling, in operations, 260,

265–270

斯科尔斯,迈伦,223

Scholes, Myron, 223

熊彼特,约瑟夫,311

Schumpeter, Joseph, 311

斯卡利,约翰,154 岁,155 岁

Sculley, John, 154, 155

搜索引擎营销 (SEM),46–47

search engine marketing (SEM), 46–47

搜索引擎优化 (SEO),47

search engine optimization (SEO), 47

担保交易,法律问题,383-384

secured transactions, legal issues, 383–384

证券交易委员会 (SEC), 69, 210

Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), 69, 210

证券市场线 (SML),208–209

security market line (SML), 208–209

细分变量,市场营销,12–16, 59

segmentation variables, in marketing, 12–16, 59

选择性分布,35-36

selective distribution, 35–36

自偿保费,42-43

self-liquidating premiums, 42–43

售价, 28

selling price, 28

七 S 战略模型, 327–333,

365

Seven S strategy model, 327–333,

365

语音、广告和 40 的份额

share of voice, advertising and, 40

谢尔曼反托拉斯法,384–385

Sherman Antitrust Act, 384–385

装运合同,379

shipment contracts, 379

卖空, 股票, 226

short selling, of stock, 226

信号策略, 347–351, 365

signaling strategy, 347–351, 365

单纯形法,263

simplex method, 263

六个 M 的容量,260、261–265、287

Six M’s of Capacity, 260, 261–265, 287

六西格玛,278

six sigma, 278

技能,员工,330, 332

skills, of staff, 330, 332

略读法、定价策略和 48

skimming, pricing strategy and, 48

闲暇时间,267

slack time, 267

进场费,31

slotting fees, 31

史密斯,亚当,311, 325

Smith, Adam, 311, 325

社交媒体, 44, 367

social media, 44, 367

社会相对主义,63-64

social relativism, 63–64

社会责任, 62, 70

social responsibility, 62, 70

独资企业,200-201

sole propriertorships, 200–201

控制范围,在组织中,

148–149, 158

span of control, in organization,

148–149, 158

支出乘数, 304, 325

spending multiplier, 304, 325

spiffs, 市场营销, 43

spiffs, in marketing, 43

斯宾德勒,迈克尔,155 岁

Spindler, Michael, 155

SRDS(标准速率和数据服务),40

SRDS (Standard Rate & Data Service), 40

利益相关者、道德和 62、65–66、67、70

stakeholders, ethics and, 62, 65–66, 67, 70

标准差 (SD), 181–182, 198

standard deviation (SD), 181–182, 198

回归分析中的标准误差,194

standard error, in regression analysis, 194

标准大都市统计区 (SMSA),13

Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSAs), 13

现金流量表, 95–103,

118

statement of cash flows, 95–103,

118

融资活动,102

financing activities in, 102

投资活动,101-102

investing activities in, 101–102

资产负债表链接,96-97

link to balance sheet, 96–97

102-103的意义

meaning of, 102–103

经营活动,100-101

operating activities in, 100–101

用途, 98

uses of, 98

所有者权益表,88–89

Statement of Owners’ Equity, 88–89

统计过程控制 (SPC),

278–280, 287

statistical process control (SPC),

278–280, 287

统计数据。概率论

statistics. See probability theory

骗子雕像,380

statue of frauds, 380

成文法,373–374

statutory laws, 373–374

斯特恩斯图尔特公司,358

Stern Stewart & Co., 358

斯图尔特,玛莎,219,393

Stewart, Martha, 219, 393

库存单位 (SKU),30

stock keeping unit (SKU), 30

股票,217–221

stocks, 217–221

Beta 和企业投资,204-207,255

Beta and corporate investments, 204–207, 255

股票类别,217

classes of stocks, 217

公司所有权和股份,202

corporate ownership and shares of, 202

股票发行作为商业融资方式,235

stock issuance as business financing method, 235

股票分割和 244

stock splits and, 244

估值模型,217-221

valuation models, 217–221

战略业务单元 (SBU) 战略,355–357

strategic business unit (SBU) strategy, 355–357

战略怀疑主义,362–363

strategic skepticism, 362–363

战略,326–365

strategy, 326–365

中国战争与, 363–364

Chinese warfare and, 363–364

竞争战略战术,

347–351, 365

competitive strategy tactics,

347–351, 365

成本领先和学习曲线,343–346、365

cost leadership and learning curve, 343–346, 365

分化,346–347

differentiation, 346–347

扩张战略,337-338

expansion strategies, 337–338

时尚策略,357–358

fad strategies, 357–358

全球化和 358–360, 365

globalization and, 358–360, 365

实施和,364

implementation and, 364

行业分析, 338–342, 365

industry analysis, 338–342, 365

整合, 333–335, 365

integration, 333–335, 365

水平,335-337

levels of, 335–337

投资组合策略, 351–357, 365

portfolio strategies, 351–357, 365

七 S 型号,327–333,365

Seven S model, 327–333, 365

协同作用和, 360–362, 365

synergy and, 360–362, 365

价值链, 333, 365

value chain, 333, 365

结构,组织,140–150, 158, 329

structure, of organization, 140–150, 158, 329

风格。组织文化

style. See culture, of organization

S 分章公司,203

Subchapter S corporations, 203

从属, 债券, 216

subordination, of bonds, 216

次级抵押贷款崩溃,70, 227–228

subprime mortgage meltdown, 70, 227–228

实体法和程序法,373-374

substantive and procedural laws, 373–374

沉没成本, 162, 197

sunk costs, 162, 197

孙子,363–364

Sun-Tzu, 363–364

上级目标, 331, 332

superordinate goals, 331, 332

供应商信贷、企业融资和 232–233

supplier credit, business financing and, 232–233

供求关系,290–291

supply and demand, 290–291

供应链管理,270

supply chain management, 270

供应方经济学,312–313

supply-side economics, 312–313

互换,226–228

swaps, 226–228

抽奖, 43

sweepstakes, 43

SWOT 分析, 21–23, 59

SWOT analysis, 21–23, 59

协同作用、战略和 360–362、365

synergy, strategy and, 360–362, 365

系统性风险,204

systemic risk, 204

系统,在组织中,149,

330–331, 332

systems, in organization, 149,

330–331, 332

系统理论,组织行为,151-153

systems theory, in organizational behavior, 151–153

 

 

T账户,84

T accounts, 84

田口, Genichi, 280

Taguchi, Genichi, 280

收购, 216, 245–246, 311, 359

takeovers, 216, 245–246, 311, 359

税务问题

tax issues

税后借款成本, 234, 255

after-tax cost of borrowing, 234, 255

公司结构和, 202, 203

corporate structure and, 202, 203

拉弗曲线和,312–313

Laffer curve and, 312–313

最大化个人节税机会,395-396

maximizing personal tax-saving opportunities, 395–396

房地产投资和,387–388

real estate investing and, 387–388

Taylor, Frederick W., 257–258, 259, 287

Taylor, Frederick W., 257–258, 259, 287

公司的终值,250–251

terminal values, of firms, 250–251

X 理论、Y 理论、Z 理论,

259–260

Theory X, Theory Y, Theory Z,

259–260

瑟布里格, 258

therblig, 258

汤普森,小鸡,132

Thompson, Chick, 132

三面板图,319

three-panel diagram, 319

吞吐量,263

throughputs, 263

时间和运动研究,257–258

time and motion studies, 257–258

基于时间的竞争,282

time-based competition, 282

时间序列预测,196

time series forecasting, 196

货币时间价值, 173, 229–230

time value of money, 173, 229–230

侵权行为,376

tort, 376

全面质量管理 (TQM),277

Total Quality Management (TQM), 277

总评分 (TRP),39

total rating points (TRPs), 39

以贸易为导向的促销活动,43

trade-directed sales promotions, 43

贸易展,43–44

trade shows, 43–44

交易定义,会计学,76-77

transaction definition, in accounting, 76–77

三重净租赁,386

triple net lease, 386

鳟鱼,杰克,25–26 岁

Trout, Jack, 25–26

T 统计量,在回归分析中,194

T statistic, in regression analysis, 194

A 型和 B 型行为,

132–134

Type A and Type B behaviors,

132–134

 

 

统一商法典 (UCC),374

Uniform Commercial Code (UCC), 374

第 2 条:销售合同,378–381

Article 2: sales contracts, 378–381

第 3 条和第 4 条:商业票据,381–382

Articles 3 and 4: commercial paper, 381–382

第 9 条:担保交易,383-384

Article 9: secured transactions, 383–384

独特的销售主张 (USP),25

unique selling proposition (USP), 25

独特/非系统性风险,204

unique/unsystemic risk, 204

普遍主义、伦理和 64

universalism, ethics and, 64

不相关的多元化,337,351

unrelated diversification, 337, 351

功利主义、伦理学和 64

utilitarianism, ethics and, 64

效用,经济学,295

utility, in economics, 295

 

 

价值链、战略和、333、365

value chain, strategy and, 333, 365

产品价值,48

value of product, 48

可变成本

variable costs

营销计划,50-51

marketing plan, 50–51

房地产投资,386–387

real estate investing, 386–387

方差分析,111–114

variance analysis, 111–114

VCM 领导力模型, 130, 158

VCM leadership model, 130, 158

货币流通速度,308

velocity of money, 308

垂直整合,334–335

vertical integration, 334–335

病毒式营销,44–45

viral marketing, 44–45

挥发性。测试版

volatility. See Beta

数量差异,管理会计,111–114, 118

volume variances, in managerial accounting, 111–114, 118

 

 

万尼斯基,裘德,313

Wanniski, Jude, 313

想要差距, 121–122, 158

want got gaps, 121–122, 158

保修,380

warranties, 380

沃特曼,罗伯特 H.,327

Waterman, Robert H., 327

国富论,The (Smith),

311

Wealth of Nations, The (Smith),

311

加权平均资本成本 (WACC), 239–242, 250

weighted average cost of capital (WACC), 239–242, 250

口碑 (WOM), 42

word of mouth (WOM), 42

营运资金, 87, 100–101

working capital, 87, 100–101

斯蒂芬·沃兹尼亚克,153–154 年

Wozniak, Stephen, 153–154

写作技巧,385–386

writing tips, 385–386

 

 

X 条形图控制图,279、281

X Bar control charts, 279, 281

 

 

收益率曲线、债券市场和

211–212

yield curve, bond market and,

211–212

到期收益率 (YTM), 213

yield to maturity (YTM), 213

 

 

零息债券,215

zero coupon bonds, 215

Z 值, 183–184, 198

Z value, 183–184, 198

关于作者

About the Author

史蒂文·西尔比格 (STEVEN SILBIGER),工商管理硕士,注册会计师,是 Plymouth Direct 的高级营销总监,擅长以尽可能清晰的方式传达复杂的财务和业务问题。他广受好评的《为期十天的 MBA》一书已售出超过 400,000 册。Silbiger 是弗吉尼亚大学达顿商学院的前十名毕业生,与家人住在费城。

STEVEN SILBIGER, MBA, CPA, is a senior director of marketing at Plymouth Direct with a gift for communicating sophisticated financial and business issues in the clearest manner possible. More than 400,000 copies of his acclaimed book The Ten-Day MBA have already been sold. A top-ten graduate of the Darden Graduate School of Business at the University of Virginia, Silbiger lives in Philadelphia with his family.

 

 

访问www.AuthorTracker.com,获取有关您最喜爱的 HarperCollins 作者的独家信息。

Visit www.AuthorTracker.com for exclusive information on your favorite HarperCollins authors.

版权

Copyright

为期十天的 MBA,第 4 版。版权所有 © 1993、1999、2005、2012,版权归 Steven Alan Silbiger 所有。根据国际和泛美版权公约保留所有权利。通过支付所需费用,您已被授予非排他性、不可转让的权利,可以在屏幕上访问和阅读本电子书的文本。不得以任何形式或通过任何手段(无论是电子的还是机械的,现在已知的或以后发明的)复制、传输、下载、反编译、逆向工程、存储或引入任何信息存储和检索系统中的任何部分, 未经 HarperCollins 电子书的明确书面许可。

THE TEN-DAY MBA, 4TH EDITION. Copyright © 1993, 1999, 2005, 2012 by Steven Alan Silbiger. All rights reserved under International and Pan-American Copyright Conventions. By payment of the required fees, you have been granted the nonexclusive, nontransferable right to access and read the text of this ebook on-screen. No part of this text may be reproduced, transmitted, downloaded, decompiled, reverse-engineered, or stored in or introduced into any information storage and retrieval system, in any form or by any means, whether electronic or mechanical, now known or hereinafter invented, without the express written permission of HarperCollins ebooks.

美国国会图书馆已申请出版编目数据。

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been applied for.

书号:978-0-06-219957-7

ISBN: 978-0-06-219957-7

EPub 版 © 2012 年 8 月 ISBN:9780062199607

EPub Edition © AUGUST 2012 ISBN: 9780062199607

12 13 14 15 16   DIX/RRD    10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

12   13   14   15   16   DIX/RRD   10   9   8   7   6   5   4   3   2   1

关于出版商

About the Publisher

澳大利亚

Australia

HarperCollins Publishers (Australia) Pty. Ltd.

HarperCollins Publishers (Australia) Pty. Ltd.

伊丽莎白街 201 号 13 楼

Level 13, 201 Elizabeth Street

澳大利亚新南威尔士州悉尼 2000

Sydney, NSW 2000, Australia

http://www.harpercollins.com.au/

http://www.harpercollins.com.au/

加拿大

Canada

加拿大哈珀柯林斯

HarperCollins Canada

2 Bloor Street East - 20 楼

2 Bloor Street East - 20th Floor

多伦多,安大略省,M4W,1A8,加拿大

Toronto, ON, M4W, 1A8, Canada

http://www.harpercollins.ca

http://www.harpercollins.ca

新西兰

New Zealand

哈珀柯林斯出版社(新西兰)有限公司

HarperCollins Publishers (New Zealand) Limited

邮政信箱 1

P.O. Box 1

新西兰奥克兰

Auckland, New Zealand

http://www.harpercollins.co.nz

http://www.harpercollins.co.nz

英国

United Kingdom

哈珀柯林斯出版社有限公司

HarperCollins Publishers Ltd.

富勒姆皇宫路 77-85 号

77-85 Fulham Palace Road

伦敦,W6 8JB,英国

London, W6 8JB, UK

http://www.harpercollins.co.uk

http://www.harpercollins.co.uk

美国

United States

哈珀柯林斯出版社

HarperCollins Publishers Inc.

10东53街

10 East 53rd Street

纽约州纽约市 10022

New York, NY 10022

http://www.harpercollins.com

http://www.harpercollins.com

*经哈佛商业评论许可转载,John J. Gabarro 和 John P. Kotter 的“Managing Your Boss”(1980 年 1 月/2 月)。版权所有 © 1979 哈佛大学校长和院士;版权所有

* Reprinted by permission of Harvard Business Review, “Managing Your Boss” by John J. Gabarro and John P. Kotter (January/February 1980). Copyright © 1979 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College; all rights reserved

*这些关于国际商务的笔记摘自弗吉尼亚大学达顿商学院教授 Neil H. Borden Jr. 领导的案例讨论,经许可使用。

* These notes on international business were taken from a case discusion led by Professor Neil H. Borden Jr. at the Darden Graduate School of Business at the University of Virginia, used with permission.